ReachTEL's second automated phone poll foray into Victorian state voting intention has the Coalition recovering on voting intention, but Ted Baillieu's already weak personal ratings deteriorating further.
The second of what promises to be a monthly series of ReachTEL automated phone polling of Victorian state voting intention for Channel Seven is rather better news for the Baillieu government than other results they have copped over the past six months or so, with Labor down from 36.8% in January to 34.9%, the Liberals up from 34.4% to 37.6%, the Nationals up from 3.5% to 6.6% and the Greens up from 12.4% to 12.6%. ReachTEL doesn’t provide two-party results, but my own projection based on 2010 election flows has the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5 when rounded to the nearest half a point.
However, personal ratings are all bad news for Ted Baillieu, whose combined good and very good rating is steady at 24.9% while his poor and very poor rating is up from 45.2% to 51.4%, with the very poor rating up from 23.1% to 31.8%. Daniel Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has widened, from 55.6-44.4 to 58.7-41.3, and a question pitting Baillieu against Melbourne lord mayor Robert Doyle and Planning Minister Matthew Guy has 32.5% preferring Baillieu against 39.2% for Doyle and 28.3% for Guy (allowing for usual doubts about the value of asking such questions of all comers, including the party’s opponents).
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.