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Queensland Politics

Feb 24, 2013

ReachTEL: 60-40 to LNP in Queensland; Galaxy: 55-45

The latest monthly ReachTEL poll of state voting intention in Queensland indicates a sharp move back to the LNP, but it's a somewhat different story from Galaxy.

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Channel Seven in Brisbane reports the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll has support for Queensland’s LNP government rebounding, up from 42.5% to 47.1% on last month with Labor down from 34.9% to 28.9%. Full results will have to wait until their publication on the ReachTEL site.

UPDATE: Didn’t take long: results here. Katter’s Australian Party is up from 10.5% to 11.5% the Greens are down from 8.4% to 7.9%. I calculate that as a clean 60-40 lead for the LNP, compared with 54-46 a month ago.

UPDATE 2: Now we have a result from Newspoll, which I wouldn’t have picked because it normally reports quarterly from Queensland and it’s still on February – I guess Queensland has been promoted to bi-monthly now (UPDATE: Need to read more carefully. It’s Galaxy, not Newspoll). Anyway, GhostWhoVotes relates it’s quite a different set of numbers from ReachTEL, with the LNP two-party preferred lead at only 55-45 (down from 56-44) from primary votes of 43% (down one) and 34% (up one). Campbell Newman’s lead as preferred premier has also narrowed from 53-28 to 52-31.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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35 comments

35 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 60-40 to LNP in Queensland; Galaxy: 55-45

  1. The size of the change is a surprise however I’m not surprised there has been some sort of recovery. I know a number of people who weren’t impressed by the way people tried to score some cheap political points on the back of the Australia Day weekend disasters.

  2. How much of a bump did Anna Bligh get after natural disasters? The fact that Newman didn’t completely make a goose of himself during the floods etc of January 2013 have given him a slight reprieve but the trend is definitely in one direction. It is surprising how small this disaster bounce is for the LNP.

  3. Yeah luckydave, the trend is against him and hes in big trouble. Only a 20 point lead, he better pull his finger out or he may find himself out of office soon.

  4. Luckydave@6


    How much of a bump did Anna Bligh get after natural disasters? The fact that Newman didn’t completely make a goose of himself during the floods etc of January 2013 have given him a slight reprieve but the trend is definitely in one direction. It is surprising how small this disaster bounce is for the LNP.

    Not surprising because his vote is already close to maxing out and it is much harder to get a bounce when already high, than when in the cellar as was Bligh.

    Oh dear that rhymed.

  5. Interesting that the results of the hypothetical question (will the Newman Government make you more/less likely to vote LNP federally) are almost completely different between Galaxy and ReachTEL, apart from the balance being close to the same:

    Galaxy

    More likely 11%
    Less likely 25%

    ReachTEL

    More likely 33.2%
    Less likely 43.9%

  6. The QLD LNP are treating popularity the same way the dot coms used to treat cash – the burn rate is astonishing. So much for governing with humility. Faux austerity, running down the public sector, incompetent ministers and nepotism/cronyism are not long term winners.

  7. KB: Bligh went from 25% pre flood to 60% post flood. It’s got to be harder to lift a long term govt that is on the nose than one that is less than a year old.

  8. Luckydave@11


    KB: Bligh went from 25% pre flood to 60% post flood. It’s got to be harder to lift a long term govt that is on the nose than one that is less than a year old.

    In the case of the govt, there’s nowhere to lift, governments don’t get 80% 2PPs for anything.

    Interesting that there is no lift in Newman’s own ratings though.

  9. Kevin Bonham@9


    Interesting that the results of the hypothetical question (will the Newman Government make you more/less likely to vote LNP federally) are almost completely different between Galaxy and ReachTEL, apart from the balance being close to the same:

    Galaxy

    More likely 11%
    Less likely 25%

    ReachTEL

    More likely 33.2%
    Less likely 43.9%

    Gordon Graham on Twitter (@GordonGraham) suggested this was probably because of the difference between the respondents being asked about state politics and federal in the earlier questions. I agree with his suggestion.

    In the case of the ReachTEL they are already thinking about state politics when asked the question and therefore give a much more decisive response, while in the case of Galaxy they’re focused on federal politics and hence not expecting a question about state politics.

    If so good example of how prior questions influence results.

  10. My Sister in-law is not talking to me 🙂

    Last night she asked who i was voting for this year and i told her Abbott. She near on exploded 🙂 going on about red speedos and so on………….. During this tirade she was going on about Abbott will never win, no one will vote for him, bla bla bla, when she was interrupted by my wife and other left voters in the house. To some up the majority Left view in my extended family…. Abbott will be PM, get used to it now so it wont be such a emotional shock in the future.

  11. If you only read what posters say here you’d think the LNP in QLD are on a 45 2PP.

    Clearly the voters are pretty damn happy with the job being done.

  12. Compact Crank
    Posted Sunday, February 24, 2013 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    If you only read what posters say here you’d think the LNP in QLD are on a 45 2PP.

    Clearly the voters are pretty damn happy with the job being done.

    ——————————–

    not really because people know these polls are hypothetical and a joke

  13. I think the 55/45 result makes more sense but, as dovif implies, it is hardly celebration time for Qld State Labor. Still, with Airport Link following Clem 7 into financial extinction, there is now ample ground for Labor to attack Newman over his own lack of management ability.

  14. davidwh
    [Can’t blame Newmsn for Airport Link Socrates.]
    Yes you can. The entire project was Newman’s brainchild and run through the mayor’s office when he was Brisbane mayor. The State become involved when they wanted to combine it with a new northern busway. However the busway is not the part of the deal that has gone broke. The toll road going broke is at least indirectly a result of the manner in which the deal was set up, which effctively rewarded people for exaggerting their demand forecast. Campbell’s “the market will fix it” ideology was written over the deal. Wait for the court case.

  15. As a qlder , no one asked me about this incompetent dodgy corrupt , lying lnp govt. Now Public housing to go ” Private ” Health going private ? Tunnel Newman knew when to get out of the Tunnel Debt and I thought Big Business knew how to make things work ? 2 Tunnels in debt already Where was the Business case ?

  16. Btw, if Newman was serious he should have checked the status of Airport link after he become Premier – now he’s in the middle of the mess.

  17. Lord Barry Bonkton

    housing and Health going private is nothing new. We have had many public private partnership accrossed every state in Australia

    The private owns many hospital, toll roads (most of them disasters), Qld Rail, Schools etc

    It should be nothing new in Australian politics

  18. Zoidlord

    We the public are paying more for it, instead of the government borrowing cheaply and building something that is own by the state.

    We gets someone else to borrow (more expensive) to build something, and then we pay premium rent to use it

    All so the states can keep the AAA rating. The ALP government in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia had done this repeatedly. What I find amusing is that it is only an issue today, but not when Bligh was privatising things

  19. dovif 33

    This time I agree with you 100%. The toll road deals done in Qld in the 80s were far smarter, with effectively a State owned company (Qld Motorways) borrowing the money and building the roads. Taxpayers saved money, motorists were not ripped off by the likes of Mcquarie Bank, and the State economy grew. Bligh’s privatiations were very clumsily handled, and even left economists like John Quiggin correctly criticised them.

    That beign said, Newman still has plenty to answer for on the trasnapex road projects. There are two issues, neitehr of which was obviously done well. The first was – did they build the right projects? Too low patronage suggests they may have gotten that wrong. The second questioin is, did they finance it correctly? I say, no.

  20. Peter Costello has completed another report, suggesting privatising some assets and health service delivery may be the solution? I thought those staff cuts would not affect service delivery? Funny how, no matter what the question is, the answer is always the same.
    [Queensland assets should be sold and more private companies should be running health services, according to the Costello report being considered by the state government.

    The report recommends the state sell off electricity assets or spend the next 50 years reducing debt by $25 billion to $30 billion if there was a fiscal surplus each year that was 1 per cent of revenue.]
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/sell-assets-and-outsource-health-services-costello-report-recommends-20130301-2fa36.html#ixzz2MF0hMBbX

    Poor Campbell. He only sacked the public servants. Not his fault if what is left can’t deliver the services adequately.

    I wonder if any LNP politiicans have declared or undeclared directorships or shareholdings in health care companies? Unlikely. I’m sure there will be no conflicts of interest here.