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Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest Newspoll is no worse for Labor than the last on voting intention, but Julia Gillard has lost her lead as preferred prime minister.

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The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred, down from 56-44 at the previous poll three weeks ago, with both Labor and the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 31% and 47% respectively and the Greens up two to 11%. Tony Abbott has apparently hit the lead as preferred prime minister; more to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Julia Gillard’s ratings have plunged yet further, her approval down six points to 30% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is effectively unchanged at 33% (steady) and 55% (down one), but his 41-39 deficit on preferred prime minister is now a lead of 40-36.

UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face result combines the last two weekends of polling, and it shows the Coalition sustaining a commanding primary vote lead of 44% (down one) to 33.5% (steady), with the Greens up a point to 10%. On respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition lead has narrowed from 56-44 to 54.5-45.5, while on previous election preferences it’s down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Other news:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has accepted Julian Assange’s enrolment in the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, which clears him to proceed with his Senate bid unless someone cares to mount a legal challenge. I had expected that Assange might fall foul of the requirement that a person enrolling overseas must intend to resume residing in Australia within six years of having left. To the best of my admittedly limited knowledge, Assange was last here furtively in 2007. Another legal grey area is his political asylum status, and what it might mean for the constitutional injunction that parliamentarians not be “under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience, or adherence to a foreign power, or … a subject or a citizen or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”.

• Gary Humphries, who has held the Liberals’ ACT Senate seat since 2003 and was the territory’s Chief Minister from October 2000 to November 2001, has lost preselection to Zed Seselja, leader of the ACT opposition through five years and two election defeats. Seselja prevailed in the contentious party ballot on Saturday by margin of 114 to 84. Humphries says he will abide by the result, but even before the vote his supporters had petitioned for it to be referred to a divisional council meeting on the grounds that the process had been rushed to Seselja’s advantage. That would throw the vote open to around 400 extra party members who were denied a vote because they hadn’t attended a branch meeting in six months.

• With Seselja standing aside from the leadership to contest the Senate preselection, the ACT Liberals have chosen Molonglo MP Jeremy Hanson as their new leader ahead of former leader Brendan Smyth. This was despite Gary Humphries’ claim that a deal had been reached between Seselja and another MP, Alistair Coe, in which Seselja would decisively throw his weight behind Coe in exchange for Coe’s support for his Senate preselection bid (which was nonetheless forthcoming, along with that of the remainder of the Liberal party room). Humphries claimed his decision to reveal the deal to the public caused it to come undone, although Coe denied it had ever been made. Coe won the party room ballot for the deputy leadership, unseating Smyth.

• Natasha Griggs, the Country Liberal Party member for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon since she unseated Labor’s Damian Hale in 2010, has seen off a preselection challenge from Peter Bourke, a clinical immunologist at Royal Darwin Hospital. In January the Northern Territory News reported a party source saying Bourke was likely to prevail, as Griggs was “not cut out to be a politician”.

• A rank-and-file Labor preselection vote for the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa will be held on March 5, pitting Labor veteran Laurie Ferguson against union and party activist Damien Ogden, who had been an aspirant for the seat when Ferguson moved there after his existing seat of Reid was merged with neighbouring Lowe at the 2010 election. Anna Patty of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Ogden has some support from both the “hard” and “soft” left, respectively associated with Anthony Albanese and the United Voice union, although it appears to be generally expected that Ferguson will see off the threat. A report by Samantha Maiden in the Sunday Telegraph suggests that might not avail him in the long run, with union polling conducted late last year said to point to a decisive swing against Labor of 13%.

Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advertiser reports the Liberal preselection for Greenway has been set for March 9, with 12 shortlisted candidates including 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson, Hills councillor Yvonne Keane and “anti-bullying campaigner and motivational speaker” Brett Murray. Also in the field are business coach Robert Borg, gym owner Rowan Dickens, senior financial analyst Mathew Marasigan, marketing manager Ben Jackson, Hills councillor Mark Owen Taylor, accountant Mark Jackson, security supervisor Renata Lusica and, curiously, Josephina Diaz, mother of Jayme. The choice will be made from a panel of delegates from the electorate’s five branches and head office.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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4100 comments

4,100 thoughts on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

  1. Mod Lib

    Good on Gary.

    I have come across a few really good people in the Public Service, as well as quite a few who would make things much better when they are on leave.

  2. ruawake

    How would an outsourced Gary feel at Homes r Us Pty Ltd on an individual contract with daily kpis to fill?

  3. confessions

    Evening all.

    People who think Wayne Swan is a poor communicator really should see Buswell blustering away. He has appalling communication skills.

  4. bemused

    Mod Lib@3705


    Thanks Psephos and MTBW!

    So who else has worked for a polly here?

    Time to fess up folks….it is intra-Pope confessional time on PB.

    Mod, I did a few weeks with a Federal Member, but as I was not going to be there long I didn’t get into the interesting stuff.

    But knowing how you support the implementation of the Gonski Report, and want a decent NDIS etc, here is a great link for you. https://australianlabor.wufoo.eu/forms/join-the-fight/

  5. Rosemour or Less

    Okay, so Troy Buswell and Wayne Swan have poor communications skills. Glad we cleared that up.

  6. Mod Lib

    Funnily bemused, ruawake beat you to the line suggesting I sign up with that link!

    Perhaps you two have more in common than you think?

  7. ruawake

    It seems like Buswell has inflated the cost of Metronet and forgot to say that his brainfarts oops transport options have to be half funded by The Feds.

    I guess the people of WA will vote for who they trust.

  8. Diogenes

    Mod Lib

    [I think you have frightened poor old Wal off Dio!]

    Now every time I kill a cockroach, I stop to wonder if it was wal in a new life.

  9. Mod Lib

    Rebels beating the Tahs……not good.

  10. rossmcg

    Ru
    I used to think that buswell was a bit sharper than the other pencils in the liberal box but having seen him stumble his way through a few press conferences this campaign I am starting to Think he is as dull as the rest of them

  11. zoidlord

    @Rosemour or Less/3805

    Or just Troy Buswell likes to beef up cost of projects.

  12. confessions

    Today’s Mumble unwittingly asserts the argument in favour of media outlets de-prioritising (if not ignoring) material which cites anonymous sources.
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/year_of_the_back_scratch1/

    [ There’s an even more interesting relationship between the backroom players—the party secretaries and directors and strategists, pollsters and lobbyists (who are sometimes one and the same, or move from one job to another)—and the fourth estate.

    As far as I can tell, the deal goes like this. Backroom person leaks self-serving “information”, such as purported results of focus groups or quantitative polling, to journalist.

    In return, journalist at some stage writes up backroomster as a political strategist beyond compare, genius who can do no wrong, someone who can single-handedly turn an election result.

    You might call it “win-win” because journo gets stuff to write about, but really the benefit seems largely one-way. ]

    It is not win-win for the public because there is no public interest in this type of reporting. Something needs to change, and only then will we see genuinely informative political reporting.

  13. rummel

    My wife asked me 5 minutes ago where is that place on tv, i said madagascar. 2 seconds later, my four year old said here mum, Madagascar. The wife and i looked at each other and then my wife took the Ipad and zoomed out on Google earth until the country name came up and low and behold it was madagascar. 🙂

    My son can start anywhere in the world on Google earth and be zoomed in on our house with in a minute. He also gives a great Google earth tour of Canberra pointing out all the main buildings.

  14. confessions

    ruawake:

    Buswell is simply appalling. He reminds me of Kelly O’Dwyer or Sophie Mirabella: when caught out over-inflating stuff, just assert repeatedly that black is in fact white. And do it loudly.

  15. crikey whitey

    FEW ASYLUM SEEKERS CHARGED WITH CRIME. SMH.

    What the FARQ is this supposed to imply. NOT OFFENDING ENOUGH.

    Asylum seekers living in the community on bridging visas are about 45 times less likely to be charged with a crime than members of the general public.

    Figures released to Fairfax Media by the department of immigration and citizenship show that since November 2011, 12,100 asylum seekers have been released into the community on bridging visas.

    A department spokeswoman said that ”a handful” – or five or less – had been charged with a crime. This equates to just 41.32 people per 100,000 people.

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics has not compiled national crime figures for the 2011-12 financial year etc

    But in 2010-11, the last time it compiled national crime data, the ABS reported that police launched proceedings against 371,040 offenders, or 1896 people per 100,000 people.

    This is more than 45 times the number of proceedings lodged against asylum seekers on bridging visas in the community.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/few-asylum-seekers-charged-with-crime-20130228-2f98h.html#ixzz2MHLwlzkm

  16. ruawake

    So a non Newspoll week wends it way to an end without a major beat the Govt over the head story. No hysteria no hyperbole.

    I guess next week will be different.

  17. confessions

    rossmcg:

    I think the entire Liberal campaign has been woeful. They are lucky that there is no mood for change otherwise it could all be very different.

  18. ruawake

    Oh Dear.

    The Courier Mail has a Picture of Qld with a For Sale sign stuck in it.

    I almost feel sorry for the inept Premier who brought this on himself. Nah just kidding.

    I hear he is writing a book – how to wreck a political honeymoon.

  19. rossmcg

    Confessions

    The libs are reputed to be cashed up but seem to be runnng a very low budget campaign…might just bite them on the bum in a few marginals

  20. confessions

    ru:

    Do you still think Newman might seek an early election in order to achieve his Great Big New Asset Sell-Off?

  21. bemused

    Mod Lib@3806


    Funnily bemused, ruawake beat you to the line suggesting I sign up with that link!

    Perhaps you two have more in common than you think?

    I have never doubted that.
    But the Labor Party is not a mutual admiration society so we mainly converse when we disagree on something.
    The rest of the time we agree. 😉

  22. dave

    rummel@3813


    My wife asked me 5 minutes ago where is that place on tv, i said madagascar. 2 seconds later, my four year old said here mum, Madagascar. The wife and i looked at each other and then my wife took the Ipad and zoomed out on Google earth until the country name came up and low and behold it was madagascar.

    My son can start anywhere in the world on Google earth and be zoomed in on our house with in a minute. He also gives a great Google earth tour of Canberra pointing out all the main buildings.

    In android it will go to the map location on a voice command, probable same in ipad.

    Also voice commands in web browser, mobile phone calls etc.

  23. Psephos

    We had one abusive post from ShowsOn and then he went quiet – has he been sin-binned again?

  24. dave

    [ ruawake
    Posted Friday, March 1, 2013 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

    I almost feel sorry for the inept Premier who brought this on himself. ]

    Do you think the penny is really dropping for Queenslanders on him?

    Or will they just accept it?

  25. Mod Lib

    Does anyone know what is happening with the ALP membership drive?

    Was the target 8000 new members in 2012?

  26. Tricot

    Agree with that Confessions.

    Our esteemed host thinks there has been an election campaign in the West but I think it has been MOA.

    Peter Kennedy on ABC radio was beating up attendances of a few hundred a piece at so-called “Community Forums” where certain electorates are a target. Hardly crowd storming stuff.

    In my local electorate one would not know, apart from the few pictures of candidates – and it must be said the Liberals have more – that there is any election next weekend.

    This is all to the good for the Liberals and I agree there seems to be no reason for people to change.

    Though, a real plus for Labor, is they have done a reasonable job with what they could and McGowan’s profile has gone from invisible to viable alternative.

    As it is likely the Emperor will not be around in fours years time, Buswell is electoral poison outside his own electorate and the Liberals have no apparent talent,McGowan might give it a real shake – if he also is still there.

  27. bemused

    Mod Lib@3826


    Does anyone know what is happening with the ALP membership drive?

    Was the target 8000 new members in 2012?

    Mod, before you can join you will have to recant your evil ways.

  28. victoria

    ML

    THE Australian Labor Party has reached its membership recruitment goal set by Prime Minister Julia Gillard at last year’s national party conference.
    Party figures show more than 8000 members were recruited by the end of September, bringing the total national membership to a little more than 44,000.

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/labor-reaches-pms-member-drive-target/story-e6frfku9-1226512852744#ixzz2MHSaDSMc

  29. davidwh

    I don’t think Newman will adopt all, or even the majority, of the Costello. It will go the way of pretty well all of these reports, the government will go with a few of the ideas modified to pass the political reality test. Remember the Henry Tax Review, over 100 recommendations and only a few adopted by the government. That’s the political reality.

    Mind you personally I thought there were some good ideas to consider in the health initiatives released the day before. It’s a big area with lots of problems that demands thinking outside the square. More of the same wasn’t an effective option.

  30. poroti

    Tricot
    [Our esteemed host thinks there has been an election campaign in the West but I think it has been MOA.]
    MOA ? Ya mean ?
    [Monsters we met: NEW ZEALAND GIANT MOA]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JF_hWMXPI5o

  31. Tricot

    rossmg – yes, I have heard about this cashed up position of the Liberals.

    Our host has made reference to this in the fact that in the last week of the campaign, no matter how well Labor started, the Libs will swamp the airways etc because they have all this money.

    Quite frankly, I don’t know who their advertising agency is and for them it is just as well they start favourites, as the ads are wooden and unexciting to say the least.

    Some of the union ads have been more biting.

    I note however, without any reference on them – small print only – the Liberals have put out glossies bagging Federal Labor.

    I thought they might be getting a tad restless if they have to do this though no politician in the West ever lost friends by bagging the Feds – regardless of who is in power in Canberra.

  32. bemused

    victoria@3829


    ML

    THE Australian Labor Party has reached its membership recruitment goal set by Prime Minister Julia Gillard at last year’s national party conference.
    Party figures show more than 8000 members were recruited by the end of September, bringing the total national membership to a little more than 44,000.

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/labor-reaches-pms-member-drive-target/story-e6frfku9-1226512852744#ixzz2MHSaDSMc

    And that’s without recruiting the likes of victoria and confessions. 👿

  33. Darn

    Dio

    Totally off topic. I’m just watching an episode of CSI and they were testing a sample of semen to extract the DNA. Trouble was there were no sperm in it and apparently that means no DNA.

    I always thought any bodily fluid would produce DNA. I guess I was wrong.

  34. Tricot

    Damn these Kiwi monsters when it was the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area I was making reference to Poroti

    MIA……………! Missing in (bloody) Action!

  35. absolutetwaddle

    the spectator

    “there was a great article in the AFR today written by Grace Collier and this quote deserves repeating:

    “Rudd’s dismissal is the most unfair , unjust, harsh and publicly humiliating in recent times. Should a reinstatement occur, the scale of Rudd’s revenge on those who wronged him would be in keeping with the power of his intellect, the size of his ego AND HIS CAPACITY FOR IMPLEMENTATION” ”

    If that’s the case then the people who ‘wronged’ Rudd have very little to fear.:)

  36. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    There is a demo in Berlin at the moment, to save the longest remaining section of The Wall, which is being knocked down to make way for shops, or something.

    https://twitter.com/IrishBerliner/status/307419515329847297/photo/1

  37. Darn

    [rummel
    Posted Friday, March 1, 2013 at 8:32 pm | Permalink
    My wife asked me 5 minutes ago where is that place on tv, i said madagascar. 2 seconds later, my four year old said here mum, Madagascar. The wife and i looked at each other and then my wife took the Ipad and zoomed out on Google earth until the country name came up and low and behold it was madagascar.

    My son can start anywhere in the world on Google earth and be zoomed in on our house with in a minute. He also gives a great Google earth tour of Canberra pointing out all the main buildings.]

    Bring him up well Rummel. He’s too smart to be a Liberal.
    😆

  38. confessions

    tricot:

    JBishop was in town yesterday, parading around with the Liberal candidate. I didn’t see the news last night so have no idea if her visit made the local news.

  39. ruawake

    Newman will outsource services and bluff his way over privatisations.

    But he has created a fictional problem, paid for a solution, can he really ignore the report?

    I note Nicholls did not say the Govt would not sell stuff, he said they will talk to people about selling stuff.

  40. dave

    victoria@3829


    ML

    THE Australian Labor Party has reached its membership recruitment goal set by Prime Minister Julia Gillard at last year’s national party conference.
    Party figures show more than 8000 members were recruited by the end of September, bringing the total national membership to a little more than 44,000.

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/labor-reaches-pms-member-drive-target/story-e6frfku9-1226512852744#ixzz2MHSaDSMc

    Ta Vic – have been looking for those figures for sometime.

    Does anyone know what liberal membership is ?

    Nats ?

    Greens?

  41. Tricot

    Confessions – no, not that I know of.

  42. victoria

    No worries dave

  43. my say

    rummel
    your son sounds as clever as my grandson

    the difference his he has labor parent that want
    more
    they want gonski and the NBN
    as they care about his future and that of his sister and new brother

    they understand we must be always doing our best with education,

    its ashame you dont want to join this group of parents

  44. bemused

    absolutetwaddle@3837


    the spectator

    “there was a great article in the AFR today written by Grace Collier and this quote deserves repeating:

    “Rudd’s dismissal is the most unfair , unjust, harsh and publicly humiliating in recent times. Should a reinstatement occur, the scale of Rudd’s revenge on those who wronged him would be in keeping with the power of his intellect, the size of his ego AND HIS CAPACITY FOR IMPLEMENTATION” ”

    If that’s the case then the people who ‘wronged’ Rudd have very little to fear.:)

    Yes, I’m sure Keve will be magnanimous in victory. 😛

  45. Mod Lib

    [However, the figure represented 4300 in net terms due to some members not renewing their membership.]

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/labor-reaches-pms-member-drive-target/story-e6frfku9-1226512852744#ixzz2MHWp9Oin

  46. Mod Lib

    Yay….Tah’s won one for once

  47. crikey whitey

    abtwad

    rudd will not be back.

  48. Laocoon

    Mod Lib
    [Rebels beating the Tahs……not good.]
    Let that be a lesson: don’t count your elections before they are voted 😉

  49. davidwh

    All governments of all political persuasions are outsourcing services and there is nothing wrong with that where it makes economical sense. The key is in governments maintaining control to ensure minimal standards are maintained or exceeded.

  50. Mod Lib

    [I always thought any bodily fluid would produce DNA. I guess I was wrong.]

    DNA is in cell nuclei. It can also be found in some fluids which include dead and breaking down cells (like sputum or saliva).

  51. zoomster

    ModLin

    NSW is reporting a 30% increase in membership – my understanding the 8000 target has been exceeded.

  52. bemused

    crikey whitey@3849


    abtwad

    rudd will not be back.

    Oh yeah? 😀

  53. confessions

    So not just WA but Australia experiences the hottest summer on record.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-01/australia-experiences-hottest-summer-on-record/4547746

  54. Bushfire Bill

    [“Rudd’s dismissal is the most unfair , unjust, harsh and publicly humiliating in recent times. Should a reinstatement occur, the scale of Rudd’s revenge on those who wronged him would be in keeping with the power of his intellect, the size of his ego and his capacity for implementation”]

    Sounds like a Giant Dummy Spit to me.

    Anniversary Wednesday came and went with nary a whimper from Mr. Rudd.

    As for the OM journos who confidently predicted his re-ascension… you’re full of shit guys.

  55. rummel

    [my say
    Posted Friday, March 1, 2013 at 9:11 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel
    your son sounds as clever as my grandson]

    Thanks Mysay, your grandson must be a very smart fella 🙂

  56. Player One

    [ Anniversary Wednesday came and went with nary a whimper from Mr. Rudd.

    As for the OM journos who confidently predicted his re-ascension… you’re full of shit guys. ]

    The only place you hear about it now appears to be right here on PB. From the usual trilobites.

  57. crikey whitey

    As BB says.

  58. rossmcg

    “All governments of all political persuasions are outsourcing services and there is nothing wrong with that where it makes economical sense. The key is in governments maintaining control to ensure minimal standards are maintained or exceeded.”.

    Easier said than done that’s why you have aboriginal men dying in the back of unairconditioned prison vans while being transported through the wa goldfields in summer. And then you have to make those responsible accountable which took years . These international service companies play governments on a break I don’t even think he company involved in this case Lost the contract

  59. Catalyst

    Wednesday 27th February 8pm My compliant to the Abc over Mad as Hell

    Comments: While comedy is always subjective, facts are not. In week one of Mad as Hell Shaun McCallef refrerred to the Prime minister Julia Gillard, as the ‘caretaker prime minister’. A factual error which I assumed would be picked up and corrected.M/s Gillard is the legitimate and serving prime minister. The caretake convention applies after the Pm visits the govenor general to notify the election date ( usually 5-6 weeks prior to the actual date).
    This week ‘the caretaker prime minister’ was referred to again.
    This is just factually wrong and I would expect a retraction and apology to be issued.
    Got the usual automated response.

  60. bemused

    Bushfire Bill@3856


    As for the OM journos who confidently predicted his re-ascension… you’re full of shit guys.

    And who better to judge than you? 😐

  61. crikey whitey

    Oh. rossmcg.

    Thank you for the reminder.

  62. confessions

    [The only place you hear about it now appears to be right here on PB. From the usual trilobites.]

    Whose numbers have dropped off sharply this week I’ve noticed. 🙂

  63. davidwh

    Rossmcg tragically there have been too many deaths in custody under both government and contract personnel.

  64. bemused

    davidwh@3865


    Rossmcg tragically there have been too many deaths in custody under both government and contract personnel.

    A very small number compared to those who die due to the failures of the Mental Health System. Hundreds each year.

  65. Jackol

    I have no problems with governments looking at alternative ways of delivering services.

    What I do have a problem with is taking an ideological view of service delivery and fudging figures/facts to try to make a case that doesn’t stack up just to “win” the argument that services should be outsourced.

    When historical examples clearly show numerous examples where outsourcing has led to greater costs to government and worse service delivery outcomes I think all such attempts need to be examined very closely indeed.

    And ideally any such recommendations should be assessed by some sort of “honest broker” – like the Productivity Commission – not good ole’ Pete the smirk making an ambit claim such that they can go ahead and privatize only “a little bit” “nowhere near what was recommended”.

  66. crikey whitey

    Bemused. Produce some stats. Perhaps along the lines of the following contorted reasoning.

    FEW ASYLUM SEEKERS CHARGED WITH CRIME. SMH.

    What the FARQ is this supposed to imply. NOT OFFENDING ENOUGH.

    Asylum seekers living in the community on bridging visas are about 45 times less likely to be charged with a crime than members of the general public.

    Figures released to Fairfax Media by the department of immigration and citizenship show that since November 2011, 12,100 asylum seekers have been released into the community on bridging visas.

    A department spokeswoman said that ”a handful” – or five or less – had been charged with a crime. This equates to just 41.32 people per 100,000 people.

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics has not compiled national crime figures for the 2011-12 financial year etc

    But in 2010-11, the last time it compiled national crime data, the ABS reported that police launched proceedings against 371,040 offenders, or 1896 people per 100,000 people.

    This is more than 45 times the number of proceedings lodged against asylum seekers on bridging visas in the community.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/few-asylum-seekers-charged-with-crime-20130228-2f98h.html#ixzz2MHLwlzkm

    3

  67. Rossmore

    Anyone see Rudd on sunrise this morning? He didnt strike me as someone who believed he was about to re-ascend. For all his reputed political genius and communication skills he seems a terrible strategist, with no sign Caucus is in any mood for change. Even the media seems to realise his race is run and over.

  68. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    I got an ALP email tonight,from Wayne Swan, asking me to sign up to help with the fight.

    Also it asked if I am interested in joining the ALP. There was also a social media Share button.

    I filled it in and I will see what happens next.

  69. confessions

    BK:

    I’d laugh except the topic is just too macabre.

    Well done george for depicting the repulsive Morrison and Abbott so aptly.

  70. bemused

    crikey whitey@3869


    Bemused. Produce some stats. Perhaps along the lines of the following contorted reasoning.

    Why do you want me to produce stats?

  71. Psephos

    [Anniversary Wednesday came and went with nary a whimper from Mr. Rudd.

    As for the OM journos who confidently predicted his re-ascension… you’re full of shit guys.]

    “The Ides of March have come.”
    “Aye, Caesar, but not gone.”

    I think the Ides of March are on the 15th, but Caucus meets on the 12th, and that’s near enough. That’s when all bluffs will be called.

  72. zoidlord

    @jackol/3868

    That’s the whole problem with Turnbull and his Productivity Commission for NBN. It will never be positive for the ones who rollout the policy initially.

    It’s exactly the same situation in the UK with their broadband policy:

    http://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2013/02/uk-government-study-examines-the-impact-of-its-broadband-investment.html

  73. davidwh

    Jackol I agree in principle however we elect governments to govern and then every three or four years we get to judge the outcome of their decisions.

  74. zoomster

    Puff

    if you do join, make sure that at some stage you sign up with your local branch.

    I’ve just had a nightmare week, trying to explain to people who are members why it is they can’t vote in preselections.

    I don’t know what the rules are in SA, but in Victoria if you join by contacting Head Office, you’re put into what’s called ‘central branch’. You can be in that basically forever and never qualify to vote in party elections.

    No one ever thinks it matters, of course, until an actual vote comes up and they’re left out….

  75. Bugler

    Puffy,

    Me too. Lets see how this goes…

  76. Jackol

    davidwh – I’m not sure what you’re trying to say there. You seem to be suggesting that it doesn’t matter that politicians may be trying to pull a fast one because whatever they do we can punish them in 2 years’ time… kind of stating the obvious but it’s not adding to the debate about how we should be governed.

    And electoral “judgment” is such a crude tool that it tells the players nothing about individual decisions that they have made in the electoral term.

    ie it’s a very poor training mechanism to the point of dysfunction.

  77. rossmcg

    Davidwh

    We all know about the tragedy of deaths in custody but when it happens in a police station somebody can be called to account, whether or not successfully has been another matter sadly But when a corporation providing a privatised service hits strife they invariably just pull down the shutters, refuse to answer and their mates in government can always resort to the scoundrels defence, commercial confidentiality.

  78. bemused

    zoomster@3877


    Puff

    if you do join, make sure that at some stage you sign up with your local branch.

    I’ve just had a nightmare week, trying to explain to people who are members why it is they can’t vote in preselections.

    I don’t know what the rules are in SA, but in Victoria if you join by contacting Head Office, you’re put into what’s called ‘central branch’. You can be in that basically forever and never qualify to vote in party elections.

    No one ever thinks it matters, of course, until an actual vote comes up and they’re left out….

    I think “Central Branch” is basically a dopey idea that should be done away with for the reasons you identify plus others.

  79. confessions

    [I think the Ides of March are on the 15th, ]

    Not the 21st?

  80. the spectator

    [That’s when all bluffs will be called.]

    and the wrongs of 2010 will be reversed and paul howes will be a blubbering mess.

  81. zoomster

    bemused

    I do have members on Central branch who know what it means, have been offered the opportunity to join a branch, and don’t want to.

    When I’ve asked why, it’s usually because they want to support the Labor party but aren’t interested in further involvement.

  82. absolutetwaddle

    crikey whitey

    “rudd will not be back.”

    I know. I was just wondering where that journo pulled Rudd’s supposed ‘skill at implementation’ line from. The upshot being that if history is any guide his ‘wrongers’ have nothing to fear.

  83. alias

    Has this small poll of western Sydney seats been remarked upon yet?

    FEDERAL Labor faces electoral annihilation, losing seats previously considered ultra-safe, unless the party switches back to Kevin Rudd, a new poll has found.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/labor-facing-wipeout-poll-20130301-2fc6u.html#ixzz2MHk7mQQ0

  84. davidwh

    Not at all Jackol. In the case of QLD Newman was elected to deliver on some specific commitments including getting the economy back on track, fixing up the problems in health and deliver on more accountable government. Despite some well highlighted problems I think they are delivering on those commitments. However it’s still too early to make real judgements on the outcomes.

    I think the Costello is a report on how a real economic conservative would deal with QLD’s problems if it was possible to ignore political realities. Costello has that luxury where Newman doesn’t.

  85. bemused

    the spectator@3883



    That’s when all bluffs will be called.


    and the wrongs of 2010 will be reversed and paul howes will be a blubbering mess.

    I am not so sure.

    Rudd may not want to accept a “hospital pass”.

    He may prefer to let certain people stew in their own juice.

  86. deblonay

    Confesions re record heat_________3855
    ____________________________________
    One has to see this statistic as further evidence of climate change beginning to be an uncomfortable fact of our daily lives

    One wonders what awaits us in the years ahead if this has been achieved in a non-El Nino year

    Prof Lovelock ,in his books”Gaia’s Revenge” singled out places like inland Australia as places where extremely high temps in the future would make life almost imposssible for humans
    Even this year places in far inland S.A and W.A were near the margin of survival….

    Until this week ,when we had a great break with several inches of rain.,Melbourne has had one of the driest summers on record…and the evidence of my own large garden was that trees never before stressed were near the edge of survival after 5 almost rainless months

    but still I think the Denialists will continue to deny even in the face of such evidence..it’s the “my old father smoked 50 cigs a day and he never got lung cancer ” routine!

    I fear the argument will be lost till it’s too late…this is also Prof Lovelock’s view too.

  87. confessions

    [Has this small poll of western Sydney seats been remarked upon yet?]

    Yes.

  88. zoidlord

    @davidwh/3887

    In the voters eye’s he hasn’t done that yet.

    Nearly a year since he’s been elected, and remember the Coalition’s BB Policy is based on “Faster, Quicker, Cheaper” argument.

    Trying to throw a bone to a dog would be too kind for him.

  89. Psephos

    [Not the 21st?]

    No, I’ve checked now, it’s the 15th. “Ides” means middle, so the ides of any month is the middle day of the month.

  90. bemused

    zoomster@3884


    bemused

    I do have members on Central branch who know what it means, have been offered the opportunity to join a branch, and don’t want to.

    When I’ve asked why, it’s usually because they want to support the Labor party but aren’t interested in further involvement.

    Not a good enough reason really.
    How do they ‘support the Labor party’ without doing anything?

  91. zoomster

    bemused

    mystifies me. I suppose they think their membership fees are sufficient (they’re not, of course).

  92. dave

    confessions@3882



    I think the Ides of March are on the 15th,


    Not the 21st?

    Ides of March is Definitely the 15th.

  93. absolutetwaddle

    the spectator

    “and the wrongs of 2010 will be reversed and paul howes will be a blubbering mess.”

    Hahaha. Keep dreaming, it’s kinda cute.

  94. bemused

    alias@3886


    Has this small poll of western Sydney seats been remarked upon yet?

    FEDERAL Labor faces electoral annihilation, losing seats previously considered ultra-safe, unless the party switches back to Kevin Rudd, a new poll has found.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/labor-facing-wipeout-poll-20130301-2fc6u.html#ixzz2MHk7mQQ0

    And here’s the nub of it:
    [The exclusive Fairfax Media/ReachTel automated poll, taken in four safe Labor electorates in Sydney’s west, has found much of Labor’s collapse can be attributed to negative perceptions of Ms Gillard’s leadership.]

  95. BK

    I would love to see a Reachtel poll on “How would you feel about Mr Abbott being PM of Australia?”

  96. confessions

    Psephos:

    Sorry am getting mixed up with equinoxes.

  97. Laocoon

    oo-oh

    Pell’s comments criticising BXVI are surfacing. Here from a German site:
    [For the Pope’s biographer Andreas Englisch, Pell is a prime candidate as the Pope’s successor. The Archbishop of Sydney is considered to be progressive on social issues, but on matters of faith and morals is classified as a a conservative.]
    http://www.n-tv.de/panorama/So-verlief-Benedikts-letzter-Tag-als-Papst-article6005151.html
    Where does one begin on this comment? Then, following to the biographer’s comments from mid February:
    [A man I can think of on the chair of the Pope, that would be Cardinal George Pell of Sydney. Mr. Pell has a very good reputation. It would be an extreme sign of the globalization of the church. The time has come.

    But as I said, that is a power struggle between the Italians with its European allies and the rest of the world. It will depend on whether the rest of the world can unite against the power-group from Italy or not.]
    http://www.n-tv.de/panorama/Das-wird-ein-Machtkampf-article10100751.html

    Still can’t see Pope “George”

  98. bemused

    zoomster@3894


    bemused

    mystifies me. I suppose they think their membership fees are sufficient (they’re not, of course).

    I have long argued we need to systematically enrol ‘supporters’ for people who don’t want to be members but just help out financially or with a bit of volunteering.

    A lot of branches/local members/FEAs etc do it in an ad-hoc sort of way that is not very efficient and leaks a lot. We should be able to do better.

  99. absolutetwaddle

    Cool, an AUSTRALIAN Pope everyone can ignore. Yawn.

  100. Bugler

    bemused,

    [Not a good enough reason really.
    How do they ‘support the Labor party’ without doing anything?]

    Gutlessness. That’s part of why I haven’t joined earlier. The social dangers of being part of the ALP, or any political party, of standing in front of the people who grew up with you, who are related to you, or employ you and handing them out cards saying “have you heard the good news? Labor is still in government. Please, help keep it that way”. Not insurmountable, but concerning nontheless. That and people will use it to claim they were right that I have political ambition. I don’t, I’m quite aware where I’m more useful.

    I also get the impression that it may have similar difficulties to “small” politcs. E.g. School Councils, hobby groups etc. where personality and cliques rule. Of course, the only way to find out is to investigate, I guess.

  101. BK

    [Still can’t see Pope “George”]
    I can. It’s not pretty!

  102. Jackol

    Sorry davidwh – I know you struggle with support for the LNP and cling on to whatever defense you can find.

    However I’m not going to let you get away with agreeing “in principle” that every (serious) proposal for outsourcing needs to be examined very very carefully with a skeptical mind based on historical examples where actual costs have gone UP for government – this is about saving public money isn’t it? – and then saying that “it’s what a real economic conservative would do” and that it ignores “political realities”.

    In case you hadn’t noticed I’m not talking political realities – I’m talking the real world! It’s not whether it can be sold, it’s whether it’s good policy. I see no evidence that any real consideration has been given to actual costs to government over time or service delivery. This is privatization based on ideology, not on any reality, political or otherwise.

  103. zoomster

    bemused

    You can sign up as a supporter at the ALP website.

    Not sure how it works, though.

  104. bemused

    BK@3898


    I would love to see a Reachtel poll on “How would you feel about Mr Abbott being PM of Australia?”

    Voters have clearly decided their loathing of Gillard is greater than their fear of Abbott.
    Perverse, inexplicable etc, but there it is.

  105. BK

    bemused
    Yes. But have they ever been asked in a direct manner?

  106. Tom the first and best

    3900

    And solstices!

  107. zoomster

    Bugler

    having done stints with a number of community groups, I have to say my branch meetings are the pleasantest and least ‘political’ of them all!

    (The local soccer club was the worst, when it came to politics….)

    Of course, if you have ambitions for higher things, it can get a bit hairy, but most branches are good value.

  108. deblonay

    Blood letting as a cure
    _______________
    Until fairly recent times there wasa curious belief by some in the medical porofession that bleeding was acure for what ailed the patient

    Carried out to it conclusions,it usualy killed the patient by turning a minor complaint into the cause of death

    Prof Steiglitz ,a Nobel price economist has recently likened the austerity programs in Europe to that practice,and looked at the disaster in Greece…and soon elsewhere in Europe …as similar to blood letting..and just as disasterous

    It was in fact the conservative remedy here and elsewhere in the 1930ies
    In Australia,Scullin was brought down in 1931 after accepting the Premier’s Plan which was forced on a gasping Australia by the international bankers,led by Otto Niemayer, a figure much hated(especially by Lang in NSW)

    The plan cut all pensions and wages and imposed severe controls on govt spending…all with disasterous results..
    as consumption dropped in even basic foods and services

    In the US The New Deal after 1932 took a new path,and in Europe rearnament after 1933 did the same in Germany
    Oddly Hitler was sort of mad-military Keynesian

    Australia staggered along under the dismal Lyons util the threat of war floated all boats

    Not suprisingly the military industries are just about the basis of the present US economy
    Some writers like James Kunstler have urged Obama to undertake a vast program to restore the US rail system which is extensive but very run down

    In my experience the comparison with Japan and Europe and now China is a sad one,having travelled much by train in all those places
    I have family in the USA and trains are a way to get around however depleted the services

  109. bemused

    zoomster@3907


    bemused

    You can sign up as a supporter at the ALP website.

    Not sure how it works, though.

    I hope they treat it seriously, it really has a lot of potential to evolve into a grass-roots campaigning effort like Obama’s provided it is run well and thought is given how to get the most out of it.

  110. zoomster

    ….that said, some branches are very dysfunctional – you may need to shop around…

  111. Bugler

    BK,

    [bemused
    Yes. But have they ever been asked in a direct manner?]

    Ah, but then what would people talk about? Don’t ask a question if you know you won’t like the answer.

  112. bemused

    BK@3909


    bemused
    Yes. But have they ever been asked in a direct manner?

    Well it is what the major polls are showing with PPM.

    How direct can you get without trying to influence the result?

  113. davidwh

    Zoidlord in the voters eyes he is still leading 60/40 or 55/45 depending on which poll you believe however the reality is it is still to soon to make a judgement.

  114. Psephos

    The autumnal equinox this year is on the 20th. It varies slightly from year to year.

  115. bemused

    zoomster@3914


    ….that said, some branches are very dysfunctional – you may need to shop around…

    Or take on a challenge to revive a dysfunctional branch. 😀

  116. zoidlord

    @davidwh/3917

    That’s because the shit that’s already been done hasn’t sunken in yet, and the shit that he is going to do won’t take effect for a little while.

  117. Tom the first and best

    3912

    The sad thing is that The Scullin Government had a different plan originally. It was to create money and spend it but it could not get the bill through the Senate (the ALP had 7 out of 36 Senators because of the majoritarian system in place at the time). They should have taken it to a DD in 1930 but they did not.

  118. Bugler

    Zoomster,

    [having done stints with a number of community groups, I have to say my branch meetings are the pleasantest and least ‘political’ of them all!

    (The local soccer club was the worst, when it came to politics….)]

    That’s good to hear! As I’ve said before, I was closely associated with the music programme at my school. The leadership did not like the music programme, and there was internal warfare between music and drama as to who was the top. I hated that aspect, my regret, to some level, is not being more involved and defending the music staff and students, who weren’t always treated with the respect they deserved. I hated the idea of the SRC, they always got overruled whenever they went beyond anything superficial. *end whinge*

    [….that said, some branches are very dysfunctional – you may need to shop around…]

    I didn’t know you could do that. My problem was that of the branches I know of, one is in my state electorate, but not the federal one, and visa versa. I don’t have a wealth of knowledge to know which ones are more “functional”.

  119. Steve777

    BK @ 3898 I would love to see a Reachtel poll on “How would you feel about Mr Abbott being PM of Australia?”

    More questions for the survey:

    How would you feel about Scott Morriscum in a senior position – a possible future PM if Tony falls over.

    How would you feel about that nincompoop Julie Bishop as Foreign Minister – our face to overseas nations? About Cori Bernardi with his hands anywhere near the levers of power? That pompous fool George Brandis as Attorney General? Barnaby Joyce in an economics portfolio?

    It doesn’t bear thinking about.

  120. Gary

    [Voters have clearly decided their loathing of Gillard is greater than their fear of Abbott.
    Perverse, inexplicable etc, but there it is.]
    Given the polling this late in the game sadly I can’t argue with this assessment.

  121. rummel

    [BK
    Posted Friday, March 1, 2013 at 10:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Still can’t see Pope “George”

    I can. It’s not pretty!]

    Pope George
    PM Abbott
    GG Howard

    Leading the world to a better place.
    🙂

  122. davidwh

    Jackol you are wrong. I just don’t think everything the LNP is doing is bad which I know is a sin in most people’s minds here.

  123. Psephos

    [They should have taken it to a DD in 1930 but they did not.]

    Which was why Whitlam said in 1974, “I’ll be damned if they’re going to turn me into another Jim Scullin.” As soon as Snedden threatened to block supply, he called an immediate DD and won.

  124. deblonay

    Re Pell’s View
    ___________
    I have a friend who knew Pell very well in his earlier career in Ballarat before he became Archbishop of Melbourne and later went to Sydney(in itself a very unusual thingh)

    From his comments Pell would be the DLPs man(as is Abbott!)in Rome !

    In a sense socially progressive on the economic issues and no neo-liberal in his economic view…though a hard-liner on the other issues ..re the family/sex at a

    He spent much church funds in renovating an old seminary building in Rome with a famous chapel..as required by Italian law

    It now functions as”Domus Australia” a private hotel for pilgrims,costly but very comfortable I understand..
    Oddly his father was a respected Ballarat publican and as a student Pell often helped out in the pub
    Now he runs one in Rome(where he keeps an apartment for himself)

    Inagine …A Pope who onced worked in the bar of a Ballarat pub

  125. Mod Lib

    [rummel
    Posted Friday, March 1, 2013 at 10:37 pm | PERMALINK
    BK
    Posted Friday, March 1, 2013 at 10:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Still can’t see Pope “George”

    I can. It’s not pretty!

    Pope George
    PM Abbott
    GG Howard

    Leading the world to a better place.]

    The Fellowship asks rummel to join Mod Lib at the Wizard rank for this comment!

  126. Tom the first and best

    3927

    It is also what Rudd should have done. He had the most obstructive Senate since 1975 and he did not call a DD.

  127. zoomster

    Bugler

    Oh yes. Most branches around here have members who technically should belong to other branches – some members would prefer to travel an extra half hour to be in a branch they feel is more compatible, or so that they can keep their membership ‘secret’ in their local community.

  128. deblonay

    Rome and “Domus Australia”
    ___________
    The Grand Hotel Pell
    looks fine to me

  129. bemused

    Bugler@3922



    ….that said, some branches are very dysfunctional – you may need to shop around…


    I didn’t know you could do that. My problem was that of the branches I know of, one is in my state electorate, but not the federal one, and visa versa. I don’t have a wealth of knowledge to know which ones are more “functional”.

    In Victoria, the only restriction is that you must join a branch in the Federal Electorate in which you reside.

    This has caused me several involuntary branch changes as I live in an area that has been redistributed back and forth between 2 electorates a number of times.

    I have always been of the view that it makes sense to join your closest branch in your Federal Electorate and preferably one that is in your State an Municipal boundaries.

    If it is a weak branch then they need you to help build it up. You have an opportunity to achieve something worthwhile in helping to build it up.

    What I intensely dislike is ‘factional’ branches where the branch is viewed as ‘belonging’ to a particular faction.

  130. Jackol

    Jackol you are wrong.

    Oh. Ok. I’m just wrong. Fair enough.

  131. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Pell as Pope is a rather drastic solution for getting him out of Australia.

  132. deblonay

    Siorry
    Domus Australia…Pell Rome residence and boutique hotel for well-of pilgrams
    http://www.domusaustralia.org/

  133. Psephos

    I’d be prepared to bet Pell is a Labor voter. He’s a Ballarat Irish Catholic. They may be conservative but they aren’t Tories. He certainly strongly opposed WorkChoices.

  134. itsthevibe

    [Has this small poll of western Sydney seats been remarked upon yet?]

    It’d certainly be a great shame if our first Muslim MP was a oncer.

  135. rummel

    [deblonay
    Posted Friday, March 1, 2013 at 10:43 pm | PERMALINK
    Siorry
    Domus Australia…Pell Rome residence and boutique hotel for well-of pilgrams
    http://www.domusaustralia.org/%5D

    Deblonay

    just checking out the joint on-line….. Dont tell the back packers, because i would not want to test a young Christians honesty against free drinks 🙂

    “A self-service Honesty Bar is available from 11.00 am to 5.00 pm daily offering a selection of alcoholic and no-alcoholic drinks”

  136. rummel

    lol

    The Archbishop Hickey Lounge Bar 🙂

  137. Diogenes

    Darn

    [Totally off topic. I’m just watching an episode of CSI and they were testing a sample of semen to extract the DNA. Trouble was there were no sperm in it and apparently that means no DNA.

    I always thought any bodily fluid would produce DNA. I guess I was wrong.]

    Lots of bodily fluids don’t have any DNA. There would be some cells shed into most fluids but they would often be dead.

  138. dave

    Mod Lib@3929



    rummel
    Posted Friday, March 1, 2013 at 10:37 pm | PERMALINK
    BK
    Posted Friday, March 1, 2013 at 10:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Still can’t see Pope “George”

    I can. It’s not pretty!

    Pope George
    PM Abbott
    GG Howard

    Leading the world to a better place.


    The Fellowship asks rummel to join Mod Lib at the Wizard rank for this comment!

    Lord Buddha just rolled over in his grave.

  139. dave

    Puff, the Magic Dragon.@3935


    Pell as Pope is a rather drastic solution for getting him out of Australia.

    Is it the next in line in Australia after Pell, Bishop Fischer – is referred to as *Boy George* ie Young George so we would be back where we started from?

  140. Mod Lib

    Fear not, dave, he was cremated!

  141. Mod Lib

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/labor-facing-wipeout-poll-20130301-2fc6u.html#ixzz2MHk7mQQ0

    Seats on 12% margins falling to Libs in Western Sydney, according to this poll.

    Would be interesting if they did another poll in a couple of weeks to see the effect of having Gillard around for a while.

  142. Psephos

    There’s also the Fr Gerald Ridsdale child-minding centre.

  143. dave

    Psephos@3937


    I’d be prepared to bet Pell is a Labor voter. He’s a Ballarat Irish Catholic. They may be conservative but they aren’t Tories. He certainly strongly opposed WorkChoices.

    Could DLP type voters convince themselves that voting liberal is not really voting tory ??

    I am betting a heap of them do.

  144. Bugler

    Zoomster,

    [so that they can keep their membership ‘secret’ in their local community.]

    A while back, before I commented, I think, there was a discussion about membership and its consequences, particularly in rural SA and WA, that was rather disturbing (one farmer apparently had his crops burnt for standing as the ALP candidate).

    Bemused,

    [In Victoria, the only restriction is that you must join a branch in the Federal Electorate in which you reside.

    This has caused me several involuntary branch changes as I live in an area that has been redistributed back and forth between 2 electorates a number of times.

    I have always been of the view that it makes sense to join your closest branch in your Federal Electorate and preferably one that is in your State an Municipal boundaries.

    If it is a weak branch then they need you to help build it up. You have an opportunity to achieve something worthwhile in helping to build it up.]

    Ta. That shouldn’t be a big problem, as the redistribution of Casey was what I might tentatively put as a lazy one (I don’t mean to offend the AEC, they do a brilliant job) where it is now almost entirely the Shire of Yarra Ranges, extended to include all of Mooroolbark and cut out bits in the Dandenongs south of Macclesfield. (Which is unfortunate for Labor in Casey, but Laura Smyth is no doubt a bigger priority than the yet-to-be decided candidate for Casey, and she needs the first few towns on the Burwood Highway).

    I do like your sense of obligation, BTW. You may appreciate the writings of Simone Weil. She comes from a kind of Catholic perspective, but I like her idea that obligations are what follow from empathetic society, not rights. However, her arguments may make you annoyed at her, even when you agree with her. I’m not entirely sure why people call you a troll, you are most informative.

  145. Mod Lib

    Chifley being the 19th safest ALP seat in NSW.

    If the lower seats go as well, that would take the seat totals to 92-58 without a single other seat changing hands anywhere in the country!

  146. rummel

    [http://www.domusaustralia.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/DOA27821.jpg?w=580&h=290]

    And you can get the Gods honest Australian News paper with your vegimite and eggs.

  147. Thomas. Paine.

    [FEDERAL Labor faces electoral annihilation, losing seats previously considered ultra-safe, unless the party switches back to Kevin Rudd, a new poll has found.

    ]

    Well it is a sizable poll so cannot be discarded.

    Pretty clearly the public is not going to let Labor escape its sins, and demands that it meet its due punishment.

    I guess those faceless men had arrogance so high they thought they could knife a PM for no reason AT ALL, anytime they like to install whomever they felt like.

    The public are making it clear that they intend to punish Labor through the representative of that vile pointless act of treachery on the Australian people, Gillard.

    Rudd needs to think if Labor is so rotten at its core if saving it in any way would be the best thing to do. Maybe the best thing would be to let the public get its closure on Labor.

  148. dave

    Mod Lib@3944


    Fear not, dave, he was cremated!

    Not a bad comeback.

    But unless you make merit you may well come back as a horses arse.

    Sorry that was this time.

  149. Mod Lib

    [ horses arse.]

    …its horse’s arse.

    I do insist on insults being put correctly at the very least.
    :devil:

  150. rummel

    [Rudd needs to think if Labor is so rotten at its core if saving it in any way would be the best thing to do. Maybe the best thing would be to let the public get its closure on Labor.]

    TP

    I dont think he does. Why else would the Leadership stop cold this week?

  151. zoidlord

    @TP/3951

    The voters obviously would rather see Tony at the lodge rather than who’s got the top job that may or may not be there in 5 years time.

  152. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    If they make Pell the Pope, he can take Anglican Archbishop Jensen with him. They can sit together in Oz House and whine about how gay priests and women bishops are rooning the world.

    We would be rid of two blights and the MSM would not have these two right-wing reactionaries to run to every time a reporter wants a quote from “the church”.

  153. bemused

    Bugler@3948


    Zoomster,


    so that they can keep their membership ‘secret’ in their local community.


    Bemused,

    Ta. That shouldn’t be a big problem, as the redistribution of Casey was what I might tentatively put as a lazy one (I don’t mean to offend the AEC, they do a brilliant job) where it is now almost entirely the Shire of Yarra Ranges, extended to include all of Mooroolbark and cut out bits in the Dandenongs south of Macclesfield. (Which is unfortunate for Labor in Casey, but Laura Smyth is no doubt a bigger priority than the yet-to-be decided candidate for Casey, and she needs the first few towns on the Burwood Highway).

    I do like your sense of obligation, BTW. You may appreciate the writings of Simone Weil. She comes from a kind of Catholic perspective, but I like her idea that obligations are what follow from empathetic society, not rights. However, her arguments may make you annoyed at her, even when you agree with her. I’m not entirely sure why people call you a troll, you are most informative.

    You need your PB dictionary. Troll = I disagree with you. 😉

    My attitude is that I joined the ALP to help elect Labor governments and I do what I can in the party to that end.

    I have a different perspective to zoomster partly because she operates in a country electorate and I am in the city where anonymity is easier.

    I also like a challenge and was instrumental over the last few years in rebuilding a branch that was almost dead. Alas, I had to leave it due to a boundary change but it was going strong.

  154. Mod Lib

    Its probably not a bad idea to let Gillard take the ALP over the cliff and then come back to bring the survivors after the next election back up to the promise land…..cleaning out all the folk who insulted him (the “true deceivers” who damaged the party by insulting their former leader mercilessly to benefit their own political interests), and starting afresh with the “true believers” on the other side.

  155. dave

    Mod Lib@3953



    horses arse.


    …its horse’s arse.

    I do insist on insults being put correctly at the very least.

    Quite so.
    :devil:

  156. dave

    Puff, the Magic Dragon.@3956


    If they make Pell the Pope, he can take Anglican Archbishop Jensen with him. They can sit together in Oz House and whine about how gay priests and women bishops are rooning the world.

    We would be rid of two blights and the MSM would not have these two right-wing reactionaries to run to every time a reporter wants a quote from “the church”.

    I believe the ‘House of Jensen’ are to retire soon, if they haven’t already.

  157. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/3958

    Or Malcolm Challenges Tony at near election say 1-2 months before election ?

  158. Dan Gulberry

    BK, bemused

    We already have an Australian Pope: here

  159. Steve777

    TTF&B @ 3927 – agree. Failure to call a Double Dissolution in the wake of the Coalition’s reneging on the ETS was Kevin Rudd’s greatest mistake. He’d have romped in a March 2010 election and Tony Abbott reduced to an embarrassing footnote for the Libs. What might have happened next is for an alternative universe. Probably Rudd PM going into an election around now, or possibly Julia Gillard may have taken over in 2011 or 2012. Who knows? Probably no hung Parliament. I think that Labour would have been in a much better position now in early 2013 if Rudd had taken the plunge.

  160. bemused

    Dan Gulberry@3962


    BK, bemused

    We already have an Australian Pope: here

    😆 😆 😆

  161. Mod Lib

    [Or Malcolm Challenges Tony at near election say 1-2 months before election ?]

    A year or two in is fine with me. Take the honeymoon and win an even bigger margin for Term 2!!!!

  162. Bugler

    Bemused,

    [I also like a challenge and was instrumental over the last few years in rebuilding a branch that was almost dead. Alas, I had to leave it due to a boundary change but it was going strong.]

    That’s what you get for living in a growth corridor, you are required to share your talents 😀 . I’m not entirely confident about the branches in my electorate, though the redistribution has probably fired them up. The Vic ALP site did have a list of branches, with contact info, but they seem to have taken it down. I might leave it at that, before William starts getting annoyed at my constant not discussing federal politics on federal politics threads. My thoughts on the ALP are already rather clear 😛

  163. Diogenes

    Why should a broadsheet be of greater intrinsic journalistic value than a tabloid?

  164. zoidlord

    @Steve777/3963

    Agreed I remember alot of the discussion about DD and Kevin Refusing to do so.

  165. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/3965

    Honeymoon only lasts about 2 weeks, so if it’s 1-2 months out, then sorry it will not increase just because a change of leadership means lack of stabilizability in the party.

  166. bemused

    Bugler@3966
    You should be able to locate some local branches by inquiring at State Office. Give them a call.

  167. Psephos

    [Could DLP type voters convince themselves that voting liberal is not really voting tory ?? I am betting a heap of them do.]

    It’s a simple matter of arithmetic to see that the bulk of those who used to vote DLP, or at least their descendants, have returned to voting Labor. The Liberals and the DLP used to poll a large combined majority in Victoria – even in 1969, a fairly good year for Labor, the Lib + DLP vote in Victoria was 56%. Now Victoria consistently votes Labor at both federal and state levels. That could not happen unless most of the DLP vote had returned. I would think a substantial majority of Catholics in Victoria vote Labor, helped of course by the fact that the Catholic population is now very multi-cultural and not just Irish as it was until the 1960s. But even many of the old Irish-Catholic working class must have returned to Labor, or Labor would not be winning seats like Ballarat and Bendigo.

  168. Gary

    [A year or two in is fine with me. Take the honeymoon and win an even bigger margin for Term 2!!!!]
    That’s assuming the Libs haven’t stuffed the place in the meantime. Big assumption.

  169. dave

    Steve777@3963


    TTF&B @ 3927 – agree. Failure to call a Double Dissolution in the wake of the Coalition’s reneging on the ETS was Kevin Rudd’s greatest mistake. He’d have romped in a March 2010 election and Tony Abbott reduced to an embarrassing footnote for the Libs. What might have happened next is for an alternative universe. Probably Rudd PM going into an election around now, or possibly Julia Gillard may have taken over in 2011 or 2012. Who knows? Probably no hung Parliament. I think that Labour would have been in a much better position now in early 2013 if Rudd had taken the plunge.

    Its all fine and dandy with 20/20 hindsight, but life just doesn’t have that advantage or work that way.

    A whole lot of assumptions going on there as well.

    The goddess of battle comes but once and is either grasp or lost.

    History records what happened.

  170. zoidlord

    Hell I’ve been trying to convince everyone I know if they don’t like to vote both Major parties I tell them to vote the other parties/independents!

    Especially those torn between projects like NBN etc.

  171. dave

    Psephos@3971



    Could DLP type voters convince themselves that voting liberal is not really voting tory ?? I am betting a heap of them do.


    It’s a simple matter of arithmetic to see that the bulk of those who used to vote DLP, or at least their descendants, have returned to voting Labor. The Liberals and the DLP used to poll a large combined majority in Victoria – even in 1969, a fairly good year for Labor, the Lib + DLP vote in Victoria was 56%. Now Victoria consistently votes Labor at both federal and state levels. That could not happen unless most of the DLP vote had returned. I would think a substantial majority of Catholics in Victoria vote Labor, helped of course by the fact that the Catholic population is now very multi-cultural and not just Irish as it was until the 1960s. But even many of the old Irish-Catholic working class must have returned to Labor, or Labor would not be winning seats like Ballarat and Bendigo.

    Then we have Catholics taking control of the liberal party at the National level in recent times?

    More information please?

  172. alias

    Draft speech notes for a Gillard abdication:

    “When I agreed to become Labor leader, and thereby your Prime Minister in June 2009, I believed it was in the best interests of Australia, in the best interests of my fellow Australians and in the best interests of our great Labor Party.

    “I said then that a good government had lost its way.

    “Today, I’m announcing that a good government, the one I
    have led, is going to become even better, by addressing
    some of the unresolved damage that was caused by that change in leadership.

    “I now accept that many Australians felt uncomfortable at the way I was installed as the leader. I know too that many still feel uncomfortable to this day. While Labor retained power in 2010, I accept of course that the result of that election was far from decisive.

    “I have underestimated the ongoing difficulties the unprecedented leadership transition in 2009 would cause.

    “And that is why I am announcing that I will stand aside, effective today. I have spoken to Kevin Rudd and appealed to him to put his name forward at a leadership ballot for the position of leader of the Labor Party. Mr Rudd has agreed. He has also agreed that his style of leadership will be markedly different than the way he governed prior to June 2009. We all learn from difficult experiences. I have learnt much from this great privilege of leading Australia, and Kevin Rudd has assured me he has learnt much too from his earlier period as leader.

    “Much will be made, no doubt, by our opponents about some of the comments that were made about Kevin Rudd by myself and my Cabinet colleagues about 12 months ago during a leadership challenge.

    “Frankly, we have all moved on from those comments, which were made in the hurly burly of a difficult leadership tussle. If our opponents want to dwell on them; if that is the best they have to offer in providing a vision for the future of Australia, then so be it.

    “Meantime, we in the Government will be proving that we have moved on, and that despite the greatest of difficulties between people who all want the best for Australia, we can rise above these difficulties to put Australians first.

    “Kevin Rudd has urged me to consider taking back a role about which I have always felt passionate, that of Education Minister, should he be elected as leader.”

  173. rummel

    [alias
    Posted Friday, March 1, 2013 at 11:26 pm | PERMALINK
    Draft speech notes for a Gillard abdication:]

    hahahahahaha

    Try…… Shorten made me do it!

  174. Psephos

    [Then we have Catholics taking control of the liberal party at the National level in recent times?

    More information please?]

    Catholics used to be effectively barred from the Liberal Party, which was dominated by Protestant Freemasons. (Every non-Labor PM from Barton to McMahon was a Freemason.) Menzies always had one token Catholic in his ministry, first Neil O’Sullivan, then Shane Paltridge. That began to break down under Fraser, but even Phil Lynch in the 70s faced considerable anti-Catholic prejudice in the Liberal Party. With the end of the DLP, the Catholic conservative intelligentsia (Gerard Henderson, for example) went over to the Liberals, and the elite Catholic schools have turned out a squad of Catholic Liberal politicians like Abbott, Hockey, Andrews etc. But that doesn’t alter the fact that the majority of Australian Catholics are working-class, or non-Anglo, or both, and tend to vote Labor.

  175. dave

    alias@3976


    Draft speech notes for a Gillard abdication:

    Another nonsense thought bubble that we have seen most months for the last two years or so.

    All based on a previously arrived at conclusion with a ‘case’ built around such.

    Please make it more interesting by dating this hypothetical ‘abdication’.

    The accuracy of the thought bubble can then be independently measured.

    Name the date!

  176. Fran Barlow

    Alias

    [When I agreed to become Labor leader, and thereby your Prime Minister in June 2009, {2010} ]

    In 2009, Rudd was still very popualr and Turnbull was LotO.

    The proposition is fanciful That speech, if delivered by Gillard, would be a political suicide note. The ALP would be a laughing stock. They’d have abandoned government and all their claims, merely to go on bended knee to Murdoch and his harpies and a man whom the vast majority of the caucus could not abide. In such circumstances, I cannot imagine many ALP MPs even wanting to win. Who would want to serve under him? How many of them could feel even a shred of self-respect? The Rudd supporters maybe but surely nobody else.

  177. Mod Lib

    Can I have a go at the Gillard concession as well?

    “It appears we have been moooovvvviiinnggg bbaaaaccckkkkkwwwaaarrrrdddssss,

    It was me that suggested a lurch to the right on asylum seekers, Kevin was right
    It was me that suggested watering down the Mining tax till we got nothing, Kevin was right
    It was me that suggested freezing the CPRS, Kevin was right, he shouldn’t have listened
    It was me that hitched the ALP economic management horse to the surplus wagon

    I take the blame and I have decided to give myself the political chop.

    Now gotta zip, over to you Kev baby….

  178. Rossmore

    Alias 3976 In your dreams maybe, but I see zero chance of such a prospect.

  179. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/3981

    As long as we can have a go at Malcolm…

    “Missed it by that much”.

  180. deblonay

    What will Obama and Hagel do”
    Re zionist demand for war with Iran
    ____________________
    This weekend..AIPAC..the top zionist group in the US will debate a motion at it’s conference ,which has the support of 2 Repub senators…that the Senate pass a motion declaring that if Israeli feels it must attack Iran the US would automatically follow suit and join in the attack
    This amazing call will meet oppositon from Obama and Hagel even if passed by the Senate

    One of it’s proponents Sen Lindsay has just been outed in that he received $343.000 as a donation from AIPAC to his election campaign
    that’s buying politicians on a grand scale
    A list shows many Republicans and some Dems received many hundreds of thousands of Dollars..from the zionist lobby……

    …which spends up big on politicians

  181. alias

    Thanks Fran. Got my dates mixed up a bit. Was out of the country for much of this.

  182. Mod Lib

    Or

    “Abbott is wiping the floor with me, time to give the ALP a chance with another leader”

  183. alias

    Amusing ML, and more than a grain of truth in there, but I think a speech of this type may well, in fact, be given. JG is a realist, at her core.

  184. deblonay

    http://mondoweiss.net/2013/02/request-israeli-senators.html

    The article from NY left -jewish site “Mondoweiss” re the AIPAC plan for a war with Iran backed by the USA

  185. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/3987

    Or Tony Abbott looses by default because he fails his election campaign in between August/September.

  186. bluepill

    Wow.. A LOT of mileage last night from the pondering about PM tenure that I have been having a look at…

    Someone got a bit ‘interested’ here 😉

    What I find hilarious is the amount of time (and obvious mental strain with pretty simple maths) spent picking tiny (apparent) holes in the work I used to support my case.

    What is more hilarious is that these same people NEVER EVER seem to support ANYTHING they say with analysis.. can’t manage it I guess. It is always a lot easier to criticise those that do.. thus all the monuments to critics etc etc.

    So.. let’s have a look at all your nonsense, shall we?
    [I didn’t use 6 because of the number of PMs, I used 6 because of the ratio:

    42 versus 26

    And finding a common denominator.

    And I was trying to find out how bluepill came up with the ratio

    7 : 3.5]

    Why not just ask, dickhead? It is not rocket science. I was curious about the average tenure of ALP vs non-ALP PMs after a lop-sided discussion on factions and their influence in the ALP.

    I chose WW2 as a starting point because it is a) one of two often used convenient placemarkers in Australian democracy in PB, I guess it is only OK to do this to support ALP arguments? However, I am not frequent enough to know that as a centrist, I am not allowed to do that. Sorry. The second, by the way, is the establishment of parliament.

    I wanted to count the years quickly, so I used this methodology:
    a) round off years to the nearest whole year (more than 183 the full year, less than, cut it off.. sorry if this is sinister and sneaky and partisan but it’s just what we actually do in Maths and Science)
    b) terms which were less than a year were taken as tenths of a year to the nearest tenth
    c) the number of years for each was rounded.

    I counted 6 ALP Prime Ministers, you petty gits. You know why?? There IS no consensus on the end of WW2. What is there ALP policy on this too?? On April 29th the Riechstag was captured (first of the common points used) and September 2 with the signing of surrender on USS Missouri( the last generally accepted date). For ease, I chose the midpoint between these you stupid idiots. That made in mid July, so I started with Chifley.. oh, the conspiracy, eh?? How could I DO such a sinister thing???

    [To get 7 on the Lib side, then obviously 42 was divided by 6. The ratio then was 7 : 26/6 = 7 : 4.33 recurring

    Which meant for every seven years of Coalition govt, there was a corresponding 4.33 years of Labor govt.

    bluepill tried to make out that the ratio “since WW2″ was 7 : 3.5]

    No making out here. Unlike you, I have no partisan axe to grind. You have a need to manipulate facts you don’t like, misrepresent people like me and lie when it suits because above all, the ALP must ALWAYS come out better than conservatives.

    I have no such need. You can say all you like about any bloody party in Australia and I just don’t care enough. Rant about Abbott like a babboon (which you usually do) and I don’t feel any need to respond, I just don’t care. I am interested in Psychology and politics. My interest is psephological and ethnographical.

    [That was wrong. If in fact it was correct, he should have said the ratio was 2 : 1 i.e. twice as many, but he couldn’t say that outright because it was wRONg – and worse, he knew it was wrong.]

    This is perhaps the clearest difference between us both. You just need the ALP win, or if that won’t work, the conservatives mustn’t, so some ludicrous ‘hole’ must be found to discredit the whole notion.

    There is a very good reason why I didn’t manufacture an empirical ratio for this data set. I was not trying to prove how much the conservatives “won by” in same lame ratio. Instead, I was showing the actual period of time served. For conservatives, PMs survived the equivalent of two full terms, the ALP a bit over one. This goes to re-election and the role of factions as discussed previously.

    [If as you say, there were 7 PMs each, then the ratio is
    42/7 : 26/7

    = 6 : 3.7]

    What is ironic about this is the nit-picking to ignore the glaring difference here. Who had longer terms you fool. It is like complaining that the waiter got your change wrong whilst you are sinking on the titanic. Look at the boat, fool.

    [But, bluepill was trying to come up with a calculation for “Stability of Leadership” not the number of PMs in a given time.]

    No, I was interested to see the average tenure of leadership for conservatives and non-conservatives, which I did. But WW2 was apparently cherry picking. so I had fun counting every single day (ignoring the irrelevant impact of the couple of dozen leap days.. is that also deceptive, partisan and evil?).

    What I found was that over the entire history of our Federal Parliament in this country that the ALP PMs have been in power an average of 1219 days and non-ALP PMs 1723 days.

    [And, he failed dismally.]

    Uh, no, I didn’t. It was not hard work and the conclusion is pretty straightforward difference of 504 days or 41.35% more time in power for non ALP vs ALP PMs.

    The ALP is the oldest political party in Australia and has had the most time to develop clear and entrenched factions. Given enough time I would expect the coalition to perhaps do the same.

    Any other lame discussion about “oooh, the leadership in conservatives is more unstable, they have worse politics, they are nasty, we are nice, we get rid of dross, they don’t” is a) opinion and b) irrelevant both to this discussion and the voting population in Australia. They know little about internal strife in the parties and care not at all. They don’t even LIKE voting, but do it because they have to.

    So, as everyone is so fond of saying, “there is only one poll that counts”. The only thing in this room that party tragic from either side can absolutely agree on is who became PM after each election.

    To the average punter, if you see a PM from one party in the job longer, I suspect there is a perception that perhaps that party is a little more stable in government.. A wild, crazy, nasty right-wing, labor-hating idea, I guess you’ll say.

    Well Kezza, should we then look at how often labor governments gets re-elected as opposed to non-labor governments. Would you accept that data set or pick bloody ridiculous holes in that too to avoid support for an argument you don’t happen to like.

    You, like much of the furniture here have always been teflon when it comes to seeing your party objectively.

    Though you look like a fool when you carry on the way you do.

  187. Tom the first and best

    3978

    Lyons was a Catholic and a non-ALP PM.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Lyons

  188. dave

    Psephos@3978




    . With the end of the DLP, the Catholic conservative intelligentsia (Gerard Henderson, for example) went over to the Liberals, and the elite Catholic schools have turned out a squad of Catholic Liberal politicians like Abbott, Hockey, Andrews etc.

    But that doesn’t alter the fact that the majority of Australian Catholics are working-class, or non-Anglo, or both, and tend to vote Labor.

    Minchin was probably one of the most powerful power brokers in the liberal party in recent times – a catholic who made another catholic, abbott, party leader outing another party leader, turnbull another catholic and squeezing out the third candidate, hockey another catholic.

    Then there are the Victorian Catholics – andrews to start with.

    I am not really arguing against the points you make but saying there are more points to it?

  189. Mod Lib

    [Or Tony Abbott looses by default because he fails his election campaign in between August/September.]

    Sure, the last 1 month might be completely different to the preceding 48 months

  190. dave

    alias@3986


    Thanks Fran. Got my dates mixed up a bit.

    Not all you mixed up sunshine.

    Have another go later.

    Try Alt > Control > Delete

  191. rummel

    “My congrats to PM Abbott, i now realise that the real Julia left me along with the majority of voters some time ago”

    This is fun.

  192. Steve777

    Re discussion of Catholics’ support for this or that party: I think that churchgoing people, whether Catholic or other Christian, these days tend to have more in common with each other than with their less devout ‘lapsed’, ‘nominal’ or ‘cultural’ brethren, and that they are by and large more likely to be politically conservative. It’s not an absolute rule of course, and they each make up their own minds how they will vote. But religious belief of any (Christian) flavour, especially conventional or fundamentalist religious belief and practice, does seem to be correlated with conservatism.

  193. Mod Lib

    How about “The ALP appears to be reeling from the effects of “real” Julia”

  194. Psephos

    [Lyons was a Catholic and a non-ALP PM]

    Lyons was a Labor rat so I don’t count him. He was a dim little man, only ever a puppet for the Protestant leaders, first John Latham, then Menzies, and behind them Keith Murdoch and the Collins House business group who funded the UAP.

  195. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/3998

    How about The effects of the peak abbott” coming to play.

  196. dave

    Psephos@3999


    Collins House business group who funded the UAP.

    Their tenticles ran deep back then as do the companies and CEO’s who have flowed on from the Collins House Group.

  197. Mod Lib

    Gosh zoidlord, we are not still trotting out that “Peak Abbott” stuff are we? 🙂

    How many years has it been since Gweneth was trying to convince us that she had this epiphany and Abbott was about to become unpopular and drag down the LNP vote?????

  198. rummel

    “working families have been moving forward and tonight they have elected a real Action Man”

  199. Mod Lib

    Or how about:

    “The truth is, I cannot get rid of Swan as treasurer cos I rely on Ludwig for support, so I figure the best thing to do for the ALP is exit stage left and let the new leader dump Swan to give us some semblance of a chance in September”

  200. zoidlord

    @mod lib/4002

    well it’s like the career of a singer, you have your highes which are your peaks and then you have lows.

    @rummel/4003

    Sounds like IR2.0.

  201. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/4004

    Pretty easy, you can’t get rid of Peter Costello.

  202. Tom the first and best

    4003

    Abbot and many other Liberals may want large scale child labour back as part of their industrial policies but it is not around at the moment and even if it was most families with working children would not vote for Abbott.

  203. absolutetwaddle

    I would be very interested to see the results of a poll on the Coalition’s asylum seeker “tracking” policy. I suspect it would be extremely popular.

    This is what progressive forces in Australia are up against. At best the average voter doesn’t give a shit about asylum seekers, at worst they actively want them dead. There’s so much resentment out there for brown people I don’t see how it can be overcome.

  204. rummel

    [Sounds like IR2.0.]

    yep and its called “Choices” because Labor gave you none!

  205. Mod Lib

    [ I don’t see how it can be overcome]

    Turnbull

  206. rummel

    [zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 12:01 am | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/4004

    Pretty easy, you can’t get rid of Peter Costello.]

    Talking about the old smerk, what a document he put together for QLD…. wow

  207. dave

    Mod Lib@4004


    Or how about:

    “The truth is, I cannot get rid of Swan as treasurer cos I rely on Ludwig for support, so I figure the best thing to do for the ALP is exit stage left and let the new leader dump Swan to give us some semblance of a chance in September”

    Next time you come back as a dung beetle just for that alone – no matter how much merit you make.

  208. zoidlord

    @rummel/4009

    None of the choices were good.

    However, Coalition are pro-business not pro-workers.

  209. Psephos

    Good night bludgers. Only 27 more weeks of this crap to go.

  210. Mod Lib

    One aims not to come back at all, but if one does, one is confident that one would be at least at the level of a human being, if not a level or two above that…

  211. zoidlord

    @rummel/4011

    What suggesting that we sell everything?

  212. jaundiced view

    I wouldn’t be ruling out Pell as Pope too quickly. Just consider his attributes: totally irrational belief system; murky kiddy-fiddling cover-up past; social disconnect from the real world; pre-Copernican beliefs in things other than imaginary beings (eg CC denier); support of catastrophic control of the world’s poor so they breed beyond their means. Perfect. They’d love him. Go George!

  213. Mod Lib

    JV:

    Let us see whether he meets the criteria:

    Old? tick
    White? tick
    Male? tick
    Against homosexuals? tick
    Does not think women are up to it? tick

    Hes gotta be a chance at least.

  214. dave

    Mod Lib@4015


    One aims not to come back at all, but if one does, one is confident that one would be at least at the level of a human being, if not a level or two above that…

    Well you must have done some seriously bad stuff to come back as a tory 🙂

  215. William Bowe

    Can you tone down the abuse please, Bluepill.

  216. rummel

    [zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 12:06 am | PERMALINK
    @rummel/4011

    What suggesting that we sell everything?]

    Beautiful one day, sold the next.
    Tough choices need to be made when there is no money in the kitty

  217. Mod Lib

    Perhaps.

    Or perhaps I am doing the bad stuff now and will come back as a champagne socialist?

  218. absolutetwaddle

    Mod Lib

    “Turnbull”

    What is his solution to the problem? If he has one he’s being awfully quiet about it.

  219. deblonay

    Re Lyons post 3992
    _________
    In 1931,Lyons ratted on the dying ALP Govt of Scullin and with some ALP members joined up to form a new conservative party ..The United Australia Party…in the depths of the Depression

    Lyons ..a catholic..had a life time of ALP membership….and was a Tasmanian Premier before entering the Fed P’ment
    He (and his formidable wife Enid) were pressured by Keith Murdoch and other power-brokers and offered the PM’s job if he would leave the ALP and bring down Scullin
    He did and when the Govt collapsed he was swept to power in 1931 and died in office in 1939
    Lyons ,even when in the ALP was a natural conservative on all issues abd shared his wife’s conservative values

    He was a very onvenient facade for the real conservatives who ran his regime..and a most dour and uninspiring man he was in every way

    He ruled over a dark and miserable decade for many Australians,following as he did…the economic orthodoxy of the day

    a small example.
    ..
    In Victoria…under the austerity plan…school children going on to the few High Schools of the day, had to pay a fee..which caused many kids from poor working class families to end their chances for asecondary education

    this was in the name of economic rationalism

  220. jaundiced view

    Oh, and George wears a brocade dress and pointy hat without a hint of a self-conscious giggle.

  221. zoidlord

    @rummel/4021

    How about all that money that QLD Liberals pocketing give back to the Tax payers? And while we at it, half the pay the State MP’s get?

  222. Thomas. Paine.

    After watching Newman and Terry Smith can hardly wait to see what PM Abbott and Gov General Howard/Pell have in store for Australia.

    Well hopefully there will be a Senate that can limit him.

  223. rummel

    [Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 12:08 am | PERMALINK
    JV:

    Let us see whether he meets the criteria:

    Old? tick
    White? tick
    Male? tick
    Against homosexuals? tick
    Does not think women are up to it? tick

    Hes gotta be a chance at least.]

    Plus he is great at playing the “nothing to see here people, move along now”.

  224. bluepill

    Bilbo

    Point duly noted,

    Wilco.

  225. zoidlord

    @TP/4027

    Senate till at least mid 2014 ? Unless he tries to DD (which Kevin Rudd failed to do).

  226. jaundiced view

    Mod Lib
    Yes. Last time I looked George was 66-1. A lazy 10 wouldn’t hurt.

  227. Bushfire Bill

    It’s pretty clear they got Mark Kenny is in on a contract from News to run the Ruddstoration Bureau at Fairfax.

    What a tosser. The man never shuts up about Rudd coming back. He’s obsessed.

    He deserves to be laughed out of town.

    Someone ought to tap him on the shoulder and tell him, “Mate, it’s over.”

    Rudd’s made more non-existent comebacks than I’ve had hot dinners. He’s gone.

  228. absolutetwaddle

    I’m fairly sure even among the desiccated remnants of the Catholic hierarchy in Europe support forchromate science orthodoxy is pretty strong. I reckon Incurious George would have his ridiculous views on the subject held against him.

  229. rummel

    Can Pell speak any other languages? The ability to talk to the masses seems important… Kev for Pope.

  230. absolutetwaddle

    That should be ‘climate science orthodoxy…”

  231. dave

    Mod Lib@4022


    Perhaps.

    Or perhaps I am doing the bad stuff now and will come back as a champagne socialist?

    Well – maybe if you make enough merit you might come back with a better sense of fairness and equity as opposed to the wealthy getting the lions share.

    Better health, education, NDID, Gonski etc which IF they come, will not be from the libs.

    Labor are not perfect by any means but have improved the living standards and fairness and safety of workers etc more than the libs will ever do or have ever done.

    Work Choices?

    Getting late for me.

    More another day perhaps?

  232. alias

    AbsoluteTwaddle @4008

    I think you are absolutely correct. And in fact this is a kind of perfect storm for JG as she prepares to land in Rooty Hill. As if the punters out there weren’t already thoroughly cheesed off with the Government, along comes an issue like this to ram home the strong sentiment in favour of the LNP. Of course it’s dog whistle politics but the sad fact is that many, many voters out there hear the whistle, and even sadder, many of those are immigrants themselves.

  233. Mod Lib

    [More another day perhaps?]

    Sure, I am likely to return for PBS Newshour as usual….

  234. rummel

    [Of course it’s dog whistle politics but the sad fact is that many, many voters out there hear the whistle, and even sadder, many of those are immigrants themselves.]

    Yes they will and you could tell by how hard the greens came to the PMs rescue again.

    [many of those are immigrants themselves]

    Yep, because they did it the right way!.

  235. Mod Lib

    [jaundiced view
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 12:13 am | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib
    Yes. Last time I looked George was 66-1. A lazy 10 wouldn’t hurt.]

    A tithe on Pell for a motza.

    I like it 🙂

  236. Mod Lib

    Good night 😉

  237. ShowsOn

    [Can Pell speak any other languages? The ability to talk to the masses seems important… Kev for Pope.]
    He is fluent in speaking bullshit.

    Like constantly.

  238. absolutetwaddle

    alias

    To that end I can see where the Greens are coming from policy-wise on the AS issue. However if they were fully implemented something like 3/4 of the voting populations would want it immediately replaced with a system of yellow badges and forcible tattooing of serial numbers. Maybe camps.

    Okay that is hyperbole but sometimes I wonder…

    The AS issue is way up there with the economy in terms if issues of importance to the average voter. It’s fucking INSANE it’s given so much prominence and I think the only explanation is a deep streak of racism in the community. It’s denied on all sides of course but that’s the only conclusion that makes sense to me.

  239. deblonay

    Re a bet on Pell
    ____________
    A mere $50A bet.. would guive a return on present odds of $3300 ..should he win…and that would buy two tickets to Rome(and a bit over for a short stay at the Hotel Pell.aka “domus Australia”)
    I’m on !!

  240. absolutetwaddle

    rummel

    “Yep, because they did it the right way!.”

    You mean flew here?

  241. deblonay

    Pell and languages
    +++++_____
    He would have a great knowledge of Latin…a must for the College of Cardinals…as Vatican documents are still published in Latin(there is an official Latinist on the Pope’s staff..an American bishop)
    Pell probably would speak some Italian…not hard for a fluent Latinist…more so if one spends much time in Rome as he has done

  242. rummel

    2013 Election, its not about “trust”, its about “choice” because Labor gives you none!

  243. alias

    Yes I know what you mean AbsoluteTwaddle.

    Still, I suppose I like to think perhaps it’s fear of the unknown rather than straight-out racism, although I accept there is a blurred line there. Of course, it’s far from unknown in reality, as we have any number of outstanding citizens who arrived here this way, but the message just doesn’t seem to get through.

  244. rummel

    [absolutetwaddle
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 12:29 am | PERMALINK
    rummel

    “Yep, because they did it the right way!.”

    You mean flew here?]

    Here is something different…. people who get approval before they hop on the boat or plane.

  245. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    I can see them all sitting around in the smugglers’ cave.
    “I got in a haul of cigarettes. I put a real bottom in a false case. Worked a treat.”

    “You call that smoogling? I put 10 gallons of 90% proof in the bull-bar of me trook. Care for a drink? What about you, mate.”

    “I had a bit of a problem. You see, I in Gatwick with 94 kilograms of dried caterpillars…”

    http://www.itv.com/news/meridian/2013-03-01/dried-caterpillars-seized-at-gatwick/

  246. Bushfire Bill

    Anne Summers, at least, sticks up for the PM. She doesn’t like the mockers.

    … it is … increasingly absurd the way the media no longer waits for leadership failure; it now anticipates it and, with no attempt to disguise its bloodlust, makes the presumption of a change in leadership the prism for day-to-day coverage of politics.

    Such is the fate of Julia Gillard, whose demise is confidently predicted on a daily basis by the politician commentariat. If her party doesn’t get her, the voters will. Either way she is dead, politically speaking.

    Such is the confidence of the journalists and shock-jocks and others who peddle these opinions, that they see no need to wait for history to happen.

    Why bother waiting for the actual voters to actually vote when these pundits have persuaded themselves that already it’s all over?

    As a result, they feel no obligation to respect the person, let along the office of prime minister, since in their minds she is already gone.

    So they feel free to mock her in ways that would have been inconceivable with other leaders and, as recently as a year ago, even with her.

    Gillard has always had to put up with intense, often unfair and sometimes cruel commentary about her clothes, her voice, even her body shape.

    But now there is a new element. The pundits are scoffing and mocking her every action, from her new glasses to every policy or political step she takes, as if to say: why bother, lady, it’s all over anyway.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/pms-critics-make-a-mockery-of-political-debate-20130301-2fbi7.html#ixzz2MIKGFMQ1

    Rude, crude and unattractive, and wanker Kenny is one of the principal offenders along with Fairfax “first class brand” Peter Hartcher (the editor of the SMH was on ABC radio this afternoon saying how wonderful Hartcher is and how much space he’ll be given in the new format paper).

    I never thought I’d say this but the SMH and The Age are now even worse than The Australian.

    News has some residual respect for the woman, but Fairfax has clearly made a decision to be a thuggish as possible.

    Anyways, it won’t be long now. I confidently predict that, after an initial curiosity spurt, the laughingly terms “compact” version of the paper will die a thousand deaths.

    The editor bloke sounded FAR too shrill about its chances. It’s a career terminator for him if he believes punters buy their crappy rag for Peter Hartcher’s rubbish.

  247. absolutetwaddle

    rummel

    You know as well as I do you don’t require permission to seek asylum. And you also know as well as I do you wouldn’t give a fuck about asking for permission or waiting in queues if you were an Hazari running from the Taliban.

    To me it’s all rather simple. A rigorous investigation of the bona fides of an applicant’s claim while confined/supervised on Australian soil. If found to be legitimate, immediate release to the community and if not, detention until they can be safely sent back home.

    Turning the boats back at sea using our bloody Navy is thoroughly ridiculous and inhumane on so many levels I won’t go into them but my impression of you is that you would agree anyway. You just plan on voting for Abbott because Julia Gillard took the jelly out of your donut somewhere along the way.

  248. Bushfire Bill

    From “I’m here to DESTROY the NBN” to…

    [Mr Abbott and Mr Turnbull will soon come together to launch the Coalition’s broadband policy. As communications spokesman, Mr Turnbull said the message on the NBN was that “we will complete it sooner, cheaper, and as a consequence, it will be more affordable“.]

    Whatever “it” is, it’s not Fibre To The Home as envisaged by Labor.

    They first misused the term “Broadband”, now they’re corrupting and redefining the term “NBN”.

    The Coalition is playing a semantic game.

    More proof (as if any was needed) that they intend to lie their way into government.

  249. zoidlord

    @Rummel/4047

    If it’s about Choice, then why is Abbott Taking everything away?

  250. Bushfire Bill

    The Daily Telegraph sounds sort-of desperate…

    [THEY struggle with power bills and cost of living pressures and overwhelmingly they rank Julia Gillard’s week-long Rooty Hill sleepout an election “stunt”.

    More than 4500 Daily Telegraph readers responded to an online survey about Ms Gillard’s western Sydney campaign, which starts with a rally of ALP faithful tomorrow night.

    – See more at: http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydneys-west-rates-julia-gillards-efforts-terrible-rooty-hill-visit-is-just-a-stunt/story-e6freuy9-1226588785559#sthash.Lxvn7xkc.dpuf ]

    It’s just straight-out lying. “On-line survey”… what twaddle.

  251. rummel

    absolutetwaddle

    I support taking refugees from camps who cant afford plane tickets halfway across the world then pay thousands to a people smuggler and then dump their mobile phones as there getting on the boat.

    Boat people are economic refugees with money the African camp sitters could only wish for.

  252. rummel

    [zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 12:46 am | PERMALINK
    @Rummel/4047

    If it’s about Choice, then why is Abbott Taking everything away?]

    like what?

  253. Bushfire Bill

    [like what?]

    NBN, tax-free threshold, school kids bonus, carbon pricing, tobacco legislation, rights at work, 20,000 public service jobs, Gonski reforms, NDIS for starters.

  254. rummel

    Private John Simpson Kirkpatrick will not be getting a VC.

  255. absolutetwaddle

    Bushfire Bill

    Didn’t I see something in Media Watch that said News Ltd wouldn’t use online polls for headlines any more? Or was that just Fairfax?

  256. Steve777

    People smuggling is a difficult problem, but nothing that a grown up country can’t deal with. We live in a country that people are busting a gut to get into – not a bad problem to have. But many otherwise good people have a blind spot on immigration and multiculturalism and think that ‘stopping the boats’ will address their concerns. But it won’t stop corporations from exporting jobs to low wage countries, it won’t stop the progress of globalisation, it won’t bring us back to some ‘Golden Age’ as some imagined we had under Howard (or Menzies).

    Questions for the voters of Western Sydney:
    – would you be better off without Medicare (Fraser abolished Medibank in his third term).
    – Would you be better off under a rebadged Workchoices?
    – Would you be better off if eductation – school and tertiary – were further privatised? I never heard John Howard promising to double the cost of Tertiary education.
    – Would you be better off if health care was further privatised? Do you trust insurers to always do the right thing by you?
    – If you are an employee or small business person, do your interests align with multinational corporations? The big banks? News Corporation?

    There are lots of other questions, for example, why does the Opposition plan to spend 10 billion dollars on a ‘Direct Inaction Plan’ to address a problem most of them don’t believe exists? We could point out how much of their annual tax dollars go to middle class welfare such as the Health Find rebate or (if they believe Abbott) his paid parental leave scheme and ask them if they’re OK with that. Also, do they realise that Abbott apparently thinks it’s a good idea to use ‘457’ visas to undercut wages and conditions?

    Judging by the tripe we see in election campaigns from both sides, the major parties seem to believe that a large tranche of voters vote after tallying up promises and voting for whoever offers the best deal in terms of their financial interest. Maybe the ALP should remind voters to think that way to think a bit more deeply about where their interests might lie.

  257. Bushfire Bill

    Right. That was a hundred years ago.

    I suppose it’s Gillard’s fault, eh?

  258. Bushfire Bill

    [Didn’t I see something in Media Watch that said News Ltd wouldn’t use online polls for headlines any more? Or was that just Fairfax?]

    They use anything they can.

    Later in the article was this:

    [Galaxy Research’s David Briggs said while the survey was not scientific, it was a glimpse of the mood of voters.

    “You have got to be cautious in interpreting these results.]

    Fair enough so far: on-line polls aren’t worth shit.

    Then…

    [ Quite clearly it doesn’t appear at this stage as if the week-long campaign in western Sydney will do Julia Gillard much good because it is widely considered by your readers as merely a political stunt,” he said.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydneys-west-rates-julia-gillards-efforts-terrible-rooty-hill-visit-is-just-a-stunt/story-e6freuy9-1226588785559#sthash.gdqu87rL.dpuf ]

    Complete wankers.

  259. zoidlord

    @Rummel/4057

    Let’s see,

    – Electricity prices will go up – again (same as Newman in QLD).
    – NBN gone – replaced with crappy Telstra 2.0.
    – Gonski will never happen.
    -Carbon Pricing (which added nearly $300 billion to the ASX Market).
    – People on Centerlink will be hurt as Workchoices 2.0 comes in.
    – Interest rates will go up within 12 months.
    – Further “smaller” governments mean less people to help the millions of people.
    – Further getting rid of the current staffing at Centerlink and other departments.

  260. rummel

    NBN, tax-free threshold, school kids bonus, carbon pricing, tobacco legislation, rights at work, 20,000 public service jobs, Gonski reforms, NDIS for starters.

    NBN – agree, but were getting a cheaper one faster. Gold plating is bad.
    Tax-free threshold – good get rid of it
    Kids bonus – good get rid of it
    Carbon tax – good get rid of it as it does nothing and you pay nothing anyway
    Tobacco – dont really mind either way
    Rights at work – We do need IR reform.
    Gonski – there is nothing to take away
    NDIS – there is nothing to take away

  261. rummel

    [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 12:55 am | PERMALINK
    Right. That was a hundred years ago.

    I suppose it’s Gillard’s fault, eh?]

    Im happy he is not getting it.

  262. Bushfire Bill

    Yep, the Daily Tele blames Gillard for Simpson:

    [Simpson and his donkey carried wounded soldiers to the beach at Gallipoli and are immortalised with a statue at the Australian War Memorial, but the tribunal found no new evidence that he was any braver than other stretcher bearers who served and died at Gallipoli.

    The Gillard Government spent hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars conducting an inquiry that was, according to the report of the tribunal’s own conclusions, essentially over before it began.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/fog-of-war-blamed-for-vc-denials/story-fncvk70o-1226588709974#index ]

    Don’t worry about Lyons, Scullin, Curtin, Chifley, Menzies, Holt, McMahon, Gorton, Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke, Keating or (perish the thought), old Blood and Guts himself, Howard… no it’s all Julia Gillard’s doing that Simpson didn’t get a gong for what he did almost a hundred years ago.

  263. absolutetwaddle

    rummel

    You seem to be under the impression that selling all yours and your family’s possessions and coming up with $10-20,000AUD makes you a member of the bourgeoisie and thus unable to legitimately claim asylum. I disagree.

    I would say that selling everything you own and paying whatever the result is to get on a death trap you know is quite likely to kill you in a horrific way in order to get to Australia is pretty solid evidence you’re desperate and likely extremely poor in anyone’s language.

    The fact there are poorer people in African camps I am aware of, but we still have our fair share of work to do in our region as well. This involves processing boat people.

  264. ShowsOn

    [Carbon tax – good get rid of it as it does nothing and you pay nothing anyway]
    ???

    If you repeal the carbon tax that means you need to find about $7 billion worth of revenue from other sources, OR increase other taxes to make up that $7 billion deficit.

    What are you proposing the government should do?

    Basically for ever $1 raised by the sale of carbon permits, $0.40 is being used to ‘fund’ the increase to the tax free threshold.

    If you don’t have the carbon permit revenue, then you’ll most likely have to increase income taxes for about 80% of the labour force.

  265. Henry

    You have become a twat recently Rummel. At one stage you were bearable. What happened?
    Just as much a twit as mod lib.
    Funny that.

  266. zoidlord

    @Rummel/4066

    The one Coalition selling you is not not even the equavalant to UK model of rollout.

    You’ve been lied too.

  267. rummel

    [zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 1:06 am | PERMALINK
    @Rummel/4066

    The one Coalition selling you is not not even the equavalant to UK model of rollout.

    You’ve been lied too.]

    I do not doubt that. I would much prefer the Labor NBN but that is not going to happen in 196 days.

  268. zoidlord

    @Rummel/4073

    Coalition BB plan isn’t going to happen at all within their first term.

    2 years will be spent renegotiation, legislation, regulation, ACCC, and so forth.

  269. absolutetwaddle

    rummel

    “I do not doubt that. I would much prefer the Labor NBN but that is not going to happen in 196 days.”

    So vote Labor and let them finish the job?

  270. William Bowe

    Be nice, Henry.

    [Im happy he is not getting it.]

    Mother f**k him and John Wayne.

  271. rummel

    It is a perennial problem of Labor governments. In the five years of this Labor government, federal spending has gone up 35 per cent to $365 billion. In the same period, population went up 8 per cent and the consumer price index went up 14 per cent.
    Labor could have and should have got back into surplus. All it had to do was stop increasing spending – no cuts necessary.

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/public-service-insulates-against-slash-and-burn-20130301-2fc71.html#ixzz2MIVHwkxj

  272. Henry

    Not to mention the $10b the Abbott govt will have to pay back to Telstra for the copper.

    Does anybody really take their broadband plan seriously? Other than the deluded?

  273. Bushfire Bill

    Funny. Along two-thousand word article on the Ten network in The Age, all about the Murdochs, the Packers, the Rineharts,and all the rest, the politics, the money, the board and so on and so forth.

    Then buried in it about the middle was this:

    [What the station needs is a few good shows.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/mclennan-miracle-needed-to-renovate-an-imperfect-ten-20130301-2fbte.html#ixzz2MIVQ76V0 ]

  274. rummel

    WB

    Simpson really was the ANZAC legend! grounded in very little truth.

  275. Henry

    Rummel has never heard of the GFC I take it.
    Somebody break it down for him, in simple steps..

    And ay, the new Bowie album is very good.

    As the diceman would say William, “Your face your ass, what’s the difference?”

    Barry Gibb rocks by the way. Great concert, dentures notwithstanding.

  276. rummel

    [Henry
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 1:20 am | PERMALINK
    Rummel has never heard of the GFC I take it.]

    No, we have not heard much of how Kev saved us since Kev left.

  277. zoidlord

    @rummel/4082

    Unlike Coalition, talking positives have it’s positives.

  278. Henry

    You either accept the GFC happened or it didn’t Rummel.
    Do you?

  279. rummel

    By abusing Rudd a year ago, Gillard and her claque only lifted him higher in the esteem of the people. Rudd remains, by far, the preferred Labor leader. The venom, the bile, the anger spewing from the frontbench of the Gillard government has only demeaned the government itself.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/hating-kevin-loving-the-saviour-20130301-2fboz.html#ixzz2MIa5XKeu

  280. ShowsOn

    [Mother f**k him and John Wayne.]
    I think Billy just quoted Flava Fla

  281. Henry

    And Turnbull is the preferred leader of the coalition Rumell.
    See how this works?

  282. rummel

    [Henry
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 1:36 am | PERMALINK
    And Turnbull is the preferred leader of the coalition Rumell.
    See how this works?]

    I do!

    The current rank for PM are as follows;

    Turnbull
    Kevin
    Abbott
    Gillard

    Stick with Gillard and Libs win.

  283. Henry

    Still a fool Rummel.

  284. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Rummel
    Vote Liberal and you will be sorry. You will either lose, because they ALP will win. Or Abbott will win, and then you will lose big-time.

    Not that I care how it ends up with you. I wouldn’t waste my time and energy trying to change your vote. I never stand between a fool and his destiny.

  285. Norwester

    I am cheered by the general improvement in mood here.

    Pell is in to $23 on Sportsbet:

    http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/current-affairs/pope-betting?LeftNav

    The cardinals would make life a lot more fun if they announce who finishes second third and fourth in the pope choosing so we can have quinella, exacta, trifecta and first four bets. Much more interesting and better dividends if you can nail them.

    I’d also like to see a long term ‘double’ on the winner this time with the winner next time, but maybe that is asking too much.

  286. canasta76

    Troy Buswell sharp,the only thing sharp about him is his sharp sense of smell

  287. my say

    see mr rummel is no mr nice guy these days

    no more funn runs then

  288. markjs

    Newspoll 26-28 October 2012 50 50
    Newspoll 9-11 November 2012 51 49
    Newspoll 23-25 November 2012 51 49
    Newspoll 7-9 December 2012 54 46
    Newspoll 11-13 January 2013 51 49

    Just a gentle reminder folks 🙂

  289. ShowsOn

    TRIANGLES ARE MY FAVOURITE SHAPE!

  290. bluepill

    Interesting show on Insiders, with some interesting observations that we have all seen before but still a nice reminder. It is actually more common for incumbent parties to be this far behind in both TPP and PPM ratings 6 months out from an election than to be better off.

    Whilst there does seem to be a bedrock trend with polls, not unlike the 1996 Keating polls prior, it is nevertheless interesting to see just how many elections were re-captured by governments this far behind. It is not outside the realms of possibility.

    One can’t help but think that the ALP in more recent times may well be its own worst enemy in re-election. Kevin Rudd’s rise and consequent demise in the polls is the most extreme we have seen since Newspoll’s inception.

    Indeed, the history of the ALP capturing a second term is not brilliant. I preface this by saying that history is no necessary indicator of future success in elections. However, we find this:

    ALP: Second (and/or subsequent) successful re-elections since 1901: 8
    ALP: Unsuccessful re-elections from a position of being in government: 6
    Non ALP (discounting protectionist elections which would boost this figure) Success: 22
    Non ALP failure to be re-elected: 6

    So, when in government, the ALP tends to manage second and/or subsequent elections 57% of the time.

    Non ALP governments have managed second and/or subsequent re-elections 79% of the time.

    I am not speculating about the reasons for this, which are likely to be many and, most likely, inconsistent. Though the historical precedent for an ALP government to survive three times in Australia is not huge.

    On the upside, coming from behind in polls is a more usual route for re-election with an incumbent government and could be this time as well. Who knows?

  291. SirLeslieHammondQC*

    So apparently Fairfax’s focus group testing showed that SMH/Age readers weren’t fussed about the format as long as the content doesn’t change. I find it hard to believe there was a chorus of “more articles about Rudd please!”

  292. Steve777

    Re Governments being way behind in the polls – I think this election year is more like 1995/96 than other years mentioned.

    In 2001, John Howard was suffering badly from glitches in the implementation of the GST, which he pulled out all stops to address. In a political sense, he was successful and was regaining ground by July 2001. Then along came the Tampa and 9/11.

    John Hewson was sunk by ‘Fightback!’ However, I don’t think Abbott is going to fall into that trap (or indeed produce any credible policy)

    Maybe 2004 has lessons – the more voters saw of Mark Latham, the less they liked him. Abbott may be vulnerable, although the media will forgive or downplay any mistakes he makes this year. Julia Gillard should stay above the fray but we should have a negative campaign against Abbott – what he’s done, what he might do and get people to think – do they really want this man as PM? At the same time heavily push he positives – the NBN, NDIS, Gonski, the performance of the economy. And be ready to challenge Opposition nonsense – e.g. Carbon Pricing – how would reducing power bills by $10 a week (and removing compensation) bring about Nirvana?

  293. The Finnigans

    England all out for 167 – Love them Sheeppen Shaggers