Following on from the Nielsen poll in New South Wales, the latest Queensland state poll result from Newspoll suggests a decline in Labor's federal polling ratings since the start of the year has been more than matched at state level.
Newspoll’s latest quarterly result for state voting intention in Queensland, covering 1130 respondents from January through March, suggest the gains Labor made amid last year's budget cuts have faded away, returning them to the territory of last year's disastrous election result. The primary votes of 27% for Labor and 49% for the LNP closely reflect the election figures of 26.7% and 49.7%, and are respectively down four and up seven on the previous quarterly Newspoll result. The Greens are on 6% (7.5% at the election, 8% in the last poll), and it looks like Katter's Australian Party is continuing to cause Newspoll methodological trouble: the numbers are 3% for the KAP and 15% for others, which are respectively implausibly low (the KAP polled 11.5% at the election) and implausibly high (4.6% at the election). The two-party preferred score of 62-38 compares with 62.8-37.2 at the election and 56-44 in the last Newspoll. Campbell Newman is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 45%, while Annastacia Palasczcuk is down one to 33% and up three to 33. Newman's lead as preferred premier is out from 45-29 to 53-21.
ReachTEL also published its latest monthly automated phone poll for Channel Seven last week, which slipped through my net at the time. This had the LNP up 0.7% to 47.8%, Labor up 1.3% to 30.2%, KAP down 1.4% to 10.1% and the Greens up 0.1% to 8.0%. On my reading of two-party preferred, Labor made a rounding-assisted one point gain on the previous month’s poll, putting it 59-41 behind rather than 60-40. Newman’s combined good rating was up from 38.4% to 42.3% with combined poor down from 46.9% to 43.8%, while Annastacia Palasczcuk was down on both good (from 24.1% to 21.0%) and poor (34.2% to 32.2%).
The following chart shows the two-party results recorded so far this term in both the Newspoll quarterly polls and the monthly ReachTEL polls, which find the latter’s results in encouragingly close proximity to the former’s.
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.