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Federal Election 2013

Apr 20, 2013

Seat of the week: Hasluck

Held for the Liberals by the first ever indigenous member of the House of Representatives, this ultra-marginal eastern Perth seat has changed hands at every election since its creation in 2001. Labor desperately needs for it to do so again on September 14.

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UPDATE (22/4/13): The weekly Essential Research records no change on last week on voting intention, with the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred from primary vote of 34% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens. The poll also finds 51% thinking Australia made the wrong decision going to war against Iraq against 23% for the right decision; support for same sex marriage at 54% and opposition at 33%; and 68% supporting the Gonski report recommendations against 13% opposed, but 43% opposed to the government’s specific plan against 40% in support.

UPDATE 2 (22/4/13): The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 44% (their weakest result since this series began eight weeks ago) and the Greens steady on 10.5%. That pans out to 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (down from 55.5-44.5), which Morgan prefers, and 54-46 on previous election preferences (down from 56-44), which I and every other pollster prefer. The sample this time around was 3270.

The eastern Perth seat of Hasluck has changed hands at all three elections since its creation as Western Australia’s fifteenth seat at the 2001 election, from territory that had previously been in Perth, Tangney and Swan. Labor has outperformed the state swing in Hasluck at each election, but has twice been denied by the force of the statewide tide to the Coalition. The electorate consists of three discrete population areas, with those in the north and south favouring Labor and the one in the centre leaning to the Liberals. The northern area includes Midland, home to a high proportion of seniors, rent payers and low-income earners, and the more Liberal-friendly Guildford, which is demographically unremarkable on all measures. The central area includes middle-income suburbs around Kalamunda in the Darling Scarp, home to a large number of English migrants, as well as mortgage-sensitive Forrestfield and Maida Vale nearer the city. In the south are the suburbs of Gosnells, Thornlie and Maddington, which are marked by lower levels of income and home ownership.

Hasluck is held for the Liberals by Ken Wyatt, whose win in 2010 made him the first ever self-identifying indigenous member of the House of Representatives. Wyatt was formerly a director of the Office of Aboriginal Health director and is the uncle of Ben Wyatt, an emerging figure in the state Labor Party. His win came at the expense of Labor’s Sharryn Jackson, who had won the seat in 2001, lost it in 2004 and recovered it again in 2007. Jackson became the seat’s inaugural member after defending a notional margin of 2.6% against a Liberal swing of 0.6%, before a further swing of 3.6% evicted her as Perth failed to take a shine to Mark Latham in 2004. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Stuart Henry, former executive director of the Western Australian Master Plumbers Association. Jackson served as Labor’s state president in the interim, and was reportedly urged by the LHMWU to seize the opportunity of Kim Beazley’s vacancy in Brand at the 2007 election. She instead declared herself set on recovering Hasluck, and was duly successful on the back of a 3.1% swing driven by a recovery of support for Labor in the electorate’s south following a slump in 2004. Redistribution cut Jackson’s 1.3% margin to 0.9% going into the 2010 election, and she was then seen off by an evenly distributed 1.4% swing in 2010

Labor’s new candidate for Hasluck is Adrian Evans, deputy state secretary of the Maritime Union of Australia. Evans’ preselection is the product of an increasing assertiveness within the state ALP on the part of the MUA, which according to one report accounts for a quarter of the state branch’s membership after a recruitment drive swelled its numbers from 150 to 850. The union first sought to flex its muscles when Evans ran for preselection for the state seat of Fremantle, which prior to the 2009 by-election defeat was held by LHMWU figurehead Jim McGinty. The LHMWU faction was able to secure preselection for its favoured candidate, UnionsWA secretary Simone McGurk, but it took a deal with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association to shore up her position in the face of the challenge from Evans. The quid pro quo included support from United Voice (as the LHMWU had become known) for the Senate ambitions of SDA state president Joe Bullock, who has duly gained top position on the Senate ticket at the expense of incumbent Louise Pratt. This has in turn caused friction between United Voice and Pratt’s AMWU sub-faction of the Left, with which the MUA is aligned.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1831 comments

1,831 thoughts on “Seat of the week: Hasluck

  1. Just Me

    Morpheus, you’re dreaming again.

    Romani ite domum.

  2. confessions

    ABC reports the PM’s community forum.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-22/voters-quiz-gillard-about-economy-foster-care/4644600

    All policy. At last!!!

  3. poroti

    Morpheus

    [You do realise there is a big wide world out there ]
    Maaaate. Brought up on a dairy farm I have been in my tine a labourer a store shelf stacker a tally clerk a senior chemist a carwash attendant a rigger and scaffolder an R&D Chemist a diamond driller. I think I have seen the “big wide world”

  4. morpheus

    liyana @1730

    You must be psychic then (hey, there’s a job opportunity) as no one knows what Rabbit’s budget policy is.

    And you need to do more research on the tax free threshold, because the sting is in the detail.

  5. Just Me

    Actually, that should be singular. Romanus?

    Ahh ferk it.

  6. joe carli

    On your knees, you right-wing pentinents!..you beggars for glory from a beggar to Murdoch!….How far does a crawler crawl?..How does one honour the dishonourable? Yet they are legion, those who hunger to adore the abonimable!
    Weak..undisciplined and veangeful…: the right-wing.

  7. morpheus

    paroti @1734

    Then there is no excuse for the tripe you posted. You might think Gillard is the best thing since sliced bread but those that don’t aren’t automatically devoid of ideas.

  8. Gaffhook

    Abbott will be looking for a big rock to hide under after releasing his billboard own goal today.

    He hates the piss being taken and people making fun of him and boy aren’t there some good piss takes getting around of his upgraded billboard.

    They would make a good wallpaper.

  9. poroti

    Just Me
    [Actually, that should be singular. Romanus?

    Ahh ferk it]
    All your fault, here is Monty Python’s “Romans Go Home” 😆

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbI-fDzUJXI

  10. poroti

    Morpheus
    What drugs are you taking ? Gillard has made shed loads of mistakes and has really disappointed me on many occasions BUT she is still 5000% better than the alternative.

  11. Gauss

    I’ve just consulted the tea leaves 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁

    Expect improving ALP Polling up to the budget, mid May: then a precipitous drop to new depths 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  12. sprocket_

    For those asking earlier about what Abbott found difficult to answer coherently, it was being pushed to drop his promises if the budget situation was found to be worse than expected.

    Drop Gonski, drop NDIS, drop his generous paid parental leave.

    Umm, arghh, umm, arghh…….

  13. Sean Tisme

    Rummel,

    Let’s sell Tasmania to New Zealand! The NZ’ers have worked out how to have industry, farming and tourism all at the same time and keep Green nut jobs out of power.

  14. liyana

    Hi Morpheus, why don’t you enlighten me? I’ll listen Last I heard was that if there is no carbon tax there is no need for compensation. And I don’t believe electricity prices will drop if there is no carbon tax- I think that is naive. As for there being no budget policy…well that’s the problem isn’t it?..All I can go on is what has been said…

  15. liyana

    Just want to add…I do have a job, but I will be better off working less and taking part unemployment benefit if the tax free threshold is returned to previous levels.

  16. Dan Gulberry

    rua

    [Holy crapola, the magnetized one thinks that revenue will suddenly change for Joe Hockey.]

    He obviously believes the Money Fairy will give Joe a golden shower. 😮 😀 👿

  17. confessions

    sprocket:

    Great to hear of more hubris from Team Abbott.

    It will be their undoing.

  18. alias

    Tanya Plibersek upcoming on Q&A:

    I’m predicting she will give Julia Gillard a lesson in how to communicate easily and effectively in a voice that doesn’t send voters across the nation ducking for cover. Make Plibersek leader tomorrow and I give Labor a tiny chance of winning the unwinnable Sept 14 election.

  19. Mod Lib

    I would think you would introduce the President of the AMA as such not “Dr Steve Hambleton”

  20. Diogenes

    Notch another one up for the NRA.

    [POLICE say five people are dead in a shooting at an apartment complex south of Seattle, including a suspect who was shot by officers responding to the chaotic scene. ]

  21. Fran Barlow

    Oh goodness alias … Ms Plibersek seems entirely competent and personable and articulate as well, but give it a rest.

    The ALP has made its call. It will either win or lose with Gillard at the helm on September 14. That is as it should be.

    Were Ms Plibersek put in charge, it would only prejudice the result because it would look like panic.

  22. Gauss

    alias

    Make Tanya PM a la Kristina Keneally? Bit late I would suggest.

  23. alias

    In the first five minutes Plibersek has proved my point. Articulate, persuasive, convincing, authentic, natural – and doesn’t grate on the ear like fingernails down a chalkboard.

    Fran – you inadvertently make the point for me: The point is no one is even looking now. The game’s over. They’ve already decided, as poll after poll demonstrates. Changing leader would actually make them look again – and they would like what they see.

  24. morpheus

    liyana @1745/17476

    This explains it reasonably well

    http://catallaxyfiles.com/2013/02/15/fact-checking-the-tax-free-threshold/

    The triple tax free threshold the ALP is crowing about is really quite a bit of smoke and mirrors. There something called the Low Income Tax Offset which is pre-existing so the benefit (marginal) is for people earning between 16,000 to 20,000 (not a tripling). Plus the effective tax rates have actually increased to counteract the changes. The main issue is that people up to $18K don’t need to lodge a tax return but overall tax benefit is marginal.

  25. Sean Tisme

    Fran, I agree. Gillard is the best person to lead the ALP to the election.

    Anyone else would be cheating the Australian people of a humiliating drubbing the ALP and Gillard so desperately deserves.

    Anything less and we’d feel cheated.

  26. Andrew

    interested that the herald sun had a Families worse off headline on page 2, with a negative story about the opposition- ie. the governments claims about it

    Shame that a huge photo of the PM was under the headline, implying that it was families worse off under her governement, so they great unwashed that wouldnt read the article got the wrong impression

  27. Mod Lib

    The government took my advice to increase the tax free threshold and the humanitarian intake to about $20k so they should also take my further advice on tax: we should have a GMT (Guaranteed Minimum Tax) where the government sets a minimum tax rate based on Gross income.

    No matter how many deductions you have you cant go below that.

  28. Kevin Bonham

    rummel@1716

    Have we talked Tasmania tonight? Pahaps a Abbott government can organise a armed intervention in Tasmania to remove the Labor/green government that has killed Tasmania’s economy.

    I’m not really sure how much blame the current Labor/Green coalition really deserves for that, as opposed to the tail end of the previous Labor majority government. Tasmania’s economy has always been erratic and governments of any stripe have been prone to happen to be in power when it goes pearshape. The Gray majority gung-ho pro-development Liberal government was not immune; it was just better at hiding it than most.

  29. Kevin Bonham

    I ought to do some stats sometime on when the first correct reports of Newspoll have emerged in each fortnight it comes out. Usually these days I expect more 10:30-11 than earlier.

  30. Mod Lib

    CommSec quarterly State of the States economic performance report:

    Liberal states/territories all doing well:
    WA
    NSW
    QLD
    NT

    ALP states/territories 2/3 doing badly:
    SA
    TAS

  31. shellbell

    You used to be able to set your watch for 10.09pm to 10.12pm.

    Now it is later….slackers.

  32. liyana

    Thank you for the link Morpheus. It was an interesting read. However, I think it seems clear that many people on low incomes will be worse off if the policy is reversed. despite the increased tax rate for those earning over 18000. I guess it will depend on what people earn..

    There’s also that pesky no budget policy issue too. Anyway, I appreciate the reply…

    ..

  33. Mod Lib

    oops….VIC should also be in the Liberal states/territories doing well category!

    http://www.investing.commsec.com.au/stateofstates

  34. BK

    Tanya in top form tonight.
    Genuine, thorouhgly on top of the brief, sympathetic, incisive and not taking any nonsense.
    Dutton – shallow, ineffective, misrepresenting the facts, unimpressive.

  35. Mod Lib

    In my experience the most common situation is that there is no knowledge of whether the patient wants to donate their organs, and so they ask the family who is in shock and consequently the request to donate organs is denied.

    I think a patient should decide whether they want to donate organs and state that they withdraw their families right to overrule that decision.

  36. Sean Tisme

    I think History shows:

    Newspoll released early on Sunday Night = Poll Bad for Labor
    Newspoll delayed until Monday Night = Poll Bad for Labor

    From this trend I think we can agree tonight’s poll will be bad for Labor.

  37. Mod Lib

    I am not sure I would call you a swinging voter BK

  38. Mod Lib

    Sean 🙂

  39. BK

    Mod Lib
    Correct call.
    Doesn’t change the facts though.

  40. Just Me

    Looks like Gillard’s community cabinet has gone well. Certainly shaken the Lib bots into action on PB.

  41. Mod Lib

    Great question from that medical student.

    We must be training them well! :devil:

  42. Mod Lib

    Just Me:

    You do get it that there is nothing better for the LNP than for Gillard to survive to the election, don’t you?

  43. This little black duck

    Tanya is leaving Peter hog-tied.

  44. rummel

    [1771
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 10:14 pm | PERMALINK
    Looks like Gillard’s community cabinet has gone well. Certainly shaken the Lib bots into action on PB.]

    Oh, I don’t know… Everything the government says or does needs to be taken with 144 days of salt, let alone asking where the money is coming from for all there gold plated policies.

  45. Mod Lib

    FWIW I have found this QandA to be particularly good.

  46. gloryconsequence

    Dutton is such a lightweight.

  47. Centre

    [Dutton is such a lightweight.]

    If Dutton becomes health minister, everything at a cheaper price (his own words).

    My advice; if you can’t afford private health insurance… GET FIT!

  48. gloryconsequence

    Dutton trying to answer the NBN question was brilliant.

  49. deblonay

    Re Greece and the onrush of fascism from Fran B
    ____________________
    Thanks…that terriblr article made me shudder for a country I have twice visited and loved
    It reads like Germany in 1932…and who is to blame…the hard minded Eurocrats.the Greek rich and their politicians s///but what a nightmare is unfoldingn now for many ordinary Greeks

  50. rummel

    Now don’t get me wrong just me… I think Labor do a great job as opposition, just look at JWH term.

  51. This little black duck

    [My advice; if you can’t afford private health insurance… GET FIT!]

  52. Centre

    Do the Liberal Bludgers here have private health insurance?

  53. Mod Lib

    I do

  54. deblonay

    Plibeseck has it all…but I doubt that some voters would want another womnan no matter how good

    pity about that !

  55. rummel

    [deblonay
    Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 10:28 pm | PERMALINK
    Re Greece and the onrush of fascism from Fran B
    ____________________
    Thanks…that terriblr article made me shudder for a country I have twice visited and loved
    It reads like Germany in 1932…and who is to blame…the hard minded Eurocrats.the Greek rich and their politicians s///but what a nightmare is unfoldingn now for many ordinary Greeks]

    Number or link please.

  56. rummel

    [1783
    Centre
    Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 10:29 pm | PERMALINK
    Do the Liberal Bludgers here have private health insurance?]

    Yes

  57. Carey Moore

    [ALP states/territories 2/3 doing badly:
    SA]

    Should’ve seen how bad a condition the state was the last time Libs were in charge. The government is still cleaning up their mess.

  58. davidwh

    I have private health cover. Have for a very long time.

  59. Carey Moore

    [Do the Liberal Bludgers here have private health insurance?]

    Judging by the rate some of them post on here, I’d be surprised if they even have jobs.

  60. Gauss

    1783
    Centre
    Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 10:29 pm | PERMALINK
    Do the Liberal Bludgers here have private health insurance?

    Definitely

  61. Mod Lib

    HEY :devil:

  62. Diogenes

    I think most Labor (and Lib) politicians have private health insurance.

  63. Diogenes

    Carey

    [Should’ve seen how bad a condition the state was the last time Libs were in charge. The government is still cleaning up their mess.]

    To be fair, the Libs were cleaning up an even bigger mess left by Bannon and the State Bank.

  64. Jackol

    The increase in the tax free threshold was primarily a reform of the tax system to reduce effective marginal taxation rates for low income earners.

    The government just didn’t explain it and covered it all in terms of a modest tax cut for low income earners that was almost incidental to the important part of the reform.

    Still, it was a good and important reform courtesy of the ALP.

  65. Rosemour or Less

    I wish people would stop calling it ‘private’
    It’s mosty susidised so it’s ‘semi-private’

    All you self reliant upstanding libs would like to believe you don’t have your hand out…

  66. Carey Moore

    [To be fair, the Libs were cleaning up an even bigger mess left by Bannon and the State Bank.]

    Definitely. Unlike some on here, I can concede both sides can cause economic problems.

    However, the state was actually a huge disaster in the late 90s, especially under Olsen – who just sold things and swept stuff under the rug.

  67. WeWantPaul

    I see it has already been covered but I was watching young Tanya wondering why she wasn’t made PM when the union leaders started sulking because Kev didn’t stroke their egos often enough.

  68. This little black duck

    [The increase in the tax free threshold was primarily a reform of the tax system to reduce effective marginal taxation rates for low income ear]
    It also reduced the number of tax payers by millions. I’m sure the ATO is grateful as well.

  69. Mod Lib

    Dio:

    I would think 90%+ of all federal politicians would have private health insurance.

    They should if they don’t, and they should use it to take pressure off the public system which has to look after those who don’t have a choice to have private health insurance.

  70. Mod Lib

    [All you self reliant upstanding libs would like to believe you don’t have your hand out…]

    Is the Medicare Levy only paid by ALP voters?

  71. WeWantPaul

    [All you self reliant upstanding libs would like to believe you don’t have your hand out…]

    I’m guessing this is your point but almost all self reliant upstanding liberals like to believe they don’t have their handout WHILE IT IS BEING OVERWHELMED WITH HANDOUTS. It is only the poor that don’t deserve handouts, liberals do deserve them.

  72. Centre

    So obviously you Liberal Bludgers are very happy for funding for public health to be cut in real terms.

    Howard did it, Campbell is doing it and the Monkey’s health minister has conceded tonight that they will do things cheaper.

    If you don’t have private health insurance and you vote for Abbott.. you are a fool!

  73. confessions

    Is there a Newspoll tonight?

  74. zoomster

    Finally got through to Mum. She’s still in Emergency (6 hours) while they try and find her a bed.

    They’ll run tests in the morning to determine if she needs a heart operation or whether her condition can be controlled with medication.

  75. rummel

    [Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 10:41 pm | PERMALINK
    Dio:

    I would think 90%+ of all federal politicians would have private health insurance.]

    My word they would…. Gillard could not possibly trust the health of her government on the public system 🙂

  76. joe carli

    Sean…the LOTO. has already promised you are going to feel pain..so your fear that..; “Anything less and we’d feel cheated.”..will, if the opp’n gain office be more than satisfied.

  77. deblonay

    Pof Cole on Chechnaya and the Boston Bombings and Syria…
    ______________________________
    In a most informative article(with great maps) Prof Cole from Michigan Uni looks at the growing linke between the El Quida backed rebels in Syria and the anti-Russian rebels in Chechnya and other parts of the Caucuses

    There is much evidence now of such a link…one reason why Russia has backed Assad in Syria,,,and he thinks the Boston events will worry Obama as top a jihardist regime winning power in Syria..so much so that the US may cool on it’s support for the Syrian rebels
    a most interesting viewpoint and one not mentioned by our rather superficial press corps who want “simple ” info on such matters,,,worth a read !

    http://www.juancole.com/

  78. This little black duck

    zoomster,

    If your mum were critical she would have a bed. This is mildly encouraging.

    I am sending positive thoughts to you and her.

  79. Marrickville Mauler

    Tanya was good tonight and is a mate of mine but the garbage about why isnt she PM, scary union bosses etc, was utter rubbish. Tories, good try. ALP supporters and others, get serious. She only had to deal with Dutton FFS.

  80. Centre

    [Is the Medicare Levy only paid by ALP voters?]

    Do Liberal voters use the medicare system?

  81. guytaur

    I was amused most at the power of NBN to burn LNP credibility out of the water in yet another policy area.

  82. confessions

    zoom:

    Thoughts with you and your efforts with your mum.

  83. This little black duck

    MM,

    I fully expected her to offer Peter a swaddling blanket.

  84. davidwh

    Rosemour personally I pay around $40k tax plus around $2k in Medicare levy so from my perspective the health care rebate isn’t much back out of that. Not sure how much GST on top of that I pay annually. I don’t have a problem with the amount of tax I pay but just get frustrated when governments fail to spend it wisely.

    Overall I think Aussies do pretty well out of our tax system and would be comfortable if the government raised more providing it was fairly spread, efficiently spent and spent on programs we need.

  85. sprocket_

    Surely they wouldn’t pull NewsPoll just because it showed a swing back to ALP?

  86. rummel

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 8s
    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 45 (0) L/NP 55 (0) #auspol

  87. guytaur

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 45 (0) L/NP 55 (0) #auspol”

  88. Mod Lib

    [Do Liberal voters use the medicare system?]

    Well I hardly ever do, but I imagine others do given how busy the Emergency Departments are (and we all know there aren’t that many ALP voters out there at the moment :devil:)

  89. Centre

    Plibersek is not good enough to be PM – get real!

  90. rummel

    So now we have had three crap weeks for Abbott, three weeks with policy at the front and three weeks where nothing has changed…. funny that, change Gillard and the polls would go crazy.

  91. Mithrandir

    [I wish people would stop calling it ‘private’
    It’s mosty susidised so it’s ‘semi-private’

    All you self reliant upstanding libs would like to believe you don’t have your hand out…]

    Damn straight. Same goes for so called private schools.

  92. Rosemour or Less

    ‘Is the Medicare Levy only paid by ALP voters?’

    How many people with ‘private’ health insurance doing there bit to take the pressure off public hospitals use public hospital outpatient services as a first option just in case? You know, save on those out of pockets if you can…but absolutely taking the pressure off. Sure.
    Tight chest, numbness…probably nothing. Just pop into the local public emergency for check up…..but then I’ll go back to taking the pressure off. What a crock.

    Have as much private anything as you like it’s your choice, your decision, your responsibility. Good luck. Jump the queue. It’s your right.

  93. Mod Lib

    Rosemour or Less:

    If everyone left private health insurance do you think that would have no effect on the public hospital system then?

  94. Mod Lib

    Has anyone seen the Approval ratings?

  95. Sean Tisme

    [I’m guessing this is your point but almost all self reliant upstanding liberals like to believe they don’t have their handout WHILE IT IS BEING OVERWHELMED WITH HANDOUTS. It is only the poor that don’t deserve handouts, liberals do deserve them.]

    People that don’t pay taxes because they choose not to work/bludge don’t deserve a hand out because they haven’t earned it.

    We should go down the U.K system and let people save up time they are allowed on welfare by the amount of weeks they have worked. Those that choose not to work their entire lives then won’t recieve a cent.

  96. Gauss

    Well the ALP stuck on 45% 2PP?? Surprised it wasn’t better.

  97. deblonay

    Polls show remarkable potential vote for Assenge in Senate poll
    ______________________________
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/polls-positive-for-wikileaks-20130422-2iaqu.html

  98. Pipe Fitter

    Good morning dawn patrol. Off to work , help build Australia , pay some tax , talk to my union mates , drum up support for PMJG among the non believers.
    Life is good.
    Don’t you all sit arround argueing all day :-).