With barely four months left to go, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate remains more or less where it’s been since February.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated on the sidebar, adding four polls (Newspoll, Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL) which told an all but identical story on two-party preferred after house bias adjustment. BludgerTrack has Labor, the Coalition and the Greens are all slightly down on the primary vote, translating into a slight increase in the Coalition’s already commanding lead on two-party preferred with no change on the seat projection. I have also had a cherished opportunity to update my projections for Tasmania, which has caused a 3.1% shift in Labor’s favour. This doesn’t make any difference to the seat projection, or to Tasmania’s position as the state with the biggest projected anti-Labor swing. However, the size of the shift on voting intention is a pointer to the shallowness of the data I’m working off for Tasmania.
• Gary “Angry” Anderson has been preselected as Nationals candidate for the Illawarra seat of Throsby, where it remains unclear if Labor incumbent Stephen Jones will be able to fend off threats to his preselection. This follows an unsuccessful bid by Anderson for Liberal preselection in Greenway, and the withdrawal of the candidate the Nationals initially chose in Throsby, Nick Cleary, who cited family reasons.
• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail lists 12 candidates for the Senate vacancy to be created by Barnaby Joyce’s candidacy in New England.
• Ian McAllister and Juliet Pietsch of the Australian National University have helpfully rolled together a bunch of Australian Election Study survey data to observe the evolution of electoral behaviour on a number of fronts, going back in some cases as far as the 1960s.