tip off

BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition

Nothing doing in this week’s pre-budget poll aggregate, which maintains a holding pattern established in early February.

It’s been a quiet week for polling, with the major pollsters holding their fire ahead of the budget and leaving the field vacant for the regularly weekly Essential Research and Morgan. With each adhering closely to the trend, there are only minor shifts in this week’s aggregated poll result on voting intention (as displayed on the sidebar). The seat projection has nudged two seats in Labor’s favour, one of which it owes to a 3.1% two-party preferred adjustment that was made to the Tasmanian result last week. That left Labor just shy of a second Tasmanian seat, which a 0.3% shift this week on the national result has helped push them over. The other Labor gain comes off the New South Wales total.

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  • 1
    Pipe Fitter
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 5:53 am | Permalink

    Morning all,
    Booby traps everywhere today ,play safe.

  • 2
    Smaug
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 6:15 am | Permalink

    It seems Johnny is lamenting not taxing food. He recons the Labour party and democrats ignored the mandate of the people in the 1998 election.
    If the 98 election result was as mandate for the libs to tax then he’s a tad disillusioned.

  • 3
    BK
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 6:25 am | Permalink

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    PB’s briefly’s comment last night briefly@2376 on Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44 | The Poll Bludger

    Labor has put up a budget that is optimistic about revenue increases and that supposes very tight spending can be sustained, and that still generates a deficit. Not a big deficit, but still big enough to register with voters.

    So the LNP now have a dilemma. If they argue that they would somehow cut taxes, then it follows they will be proposing a bigger deficit. If they say they are going to cut spending – which is already tight – everyone will want to know where and how and by by how much.

    They can and will whinge about deficits and debts and credibility. But this will also pose a test of their own credibility.

    The public know the fiscal situation is tight. The more the LNP rant about the deficit, the more the public will want to know if the LNP intend to raise taxes or cut spending or both; and the more they will be asked if they are willing to see jobs slashed in (a self-defeating attempt) to drive down the deficit.

    To make matters even more problematic for the LNP, in the lead up to the election Treasury will publish their mandatory pre-election outlook statement. There is every chance that by then the budget assumptions will have changed – especially in relation to the terms of trade, the exchange rate and the flow of revenues.

    Because there are such high expectations that the LNP will win in September, any claims they make about the budget will likely attract more than the usual degree of scrutiny.

    This is a problem for them because they have so many irreconcilable positions. It is just not possible for them to do ALL the things they have mooted – repealing the carbon tax (which raises $8 billion) and replacing it with DAP (which wastes at least $2 billion); repealing part (but not all) of the MRRT; introducing their PPL (which hits business as well as adds $ 2 billion to spending); cutting “waste”, but not cutting social programs; reducing the deficit without increasing taxes; increasing real defence spending by 3% pa at the same time…. and so on.

    The background is that the first one-third of Commonwealth revenue is committed to the States, and this includes GST revenue. Can Abbott cut funding to the States, who depend on the Commonwealth for health, education and public capital spending? Not really. The States are already in the red.

    Commonwealth spending on its own programs – defense, welfare, social support, Family Tax Benefits, and its own running costs – are not really that high. They are just 16% of GDP.

    The up-front deficit implied by the LNP on its OWN PAST PROMISES, together with the Government’s optimistic forecasts, easily exceeds 2% of GDP. If the terms-of-=trade weaken in the next few months, or the currency stays much below the forecast USD1.03, this number could easily run to 3% of GDP, maybe more.

    So what are the LNP going to say about their alternative plans?

    They have at best 16% of GDP to play with. They are already spending at least 18% of GDP before any revisions come into effect or before the election campaign gets going.

    On the face of it, the LNP are promising to make the deficit worse, not better. They cannot point to one single measure they will take to narrow the deficit. Not one. They have no meaningful plans to reform the tax system. On spending, they merely promise looser and not tighter policy.

    They will be asking people to believe they can make wine from water.

    was en very good summary of the Opposition;s prediciament. Now, if only the media would be as forensic.
    I wonder how this will pan out.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-16/thomson-quits-labor-party/4692608
    I wouldn’t hold your breath.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-16/abbott-expected-to-address-tax-cuts-in-budget-reply/4692566
    Wong and Swan are starting to use the “gutless” tag on Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/abbott-dodges-booby-trap-20130515-2jmtu.html
    At last something positive for Labor in NSW.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/nsw-could-lose-school-cash-under-pm-abbott-20130515-2jmu4.html
    Andrew Dyson on the Baby Bonus.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    David Pope is having extreme fun with the Skywhale!
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Yuk!! David Rowe has a shocker on the Budget reply.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    And have a look at this illusionist.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=sKns1uatyNg&vq=medium

  • 4
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 6:35 am | Permalink

    ” I can’t, in all good conscience, contest this election as a Labor Party candidate”

    Thomson speaks code for I would have SFA chance at pre- selection.

  • 5
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 6:37 am | Permalink

    how sick is the Abbott coalition

    http://www.news.com.au/national-news/nsw-act/opposition-blocks-bid-to-be-with-sick-baby/story-fndo4bst-1226643689970

    the gillard government will be win by default

  • 6
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 6:37 am | Permalink

    lol shellbell

  • 7
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 6:38 am | Permalink

    B K

    Swan and Wong are doing the right thing , Abbott is nothing but a gutless coward

  • 8
    BK
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 6:39 am | Permalink

    And from the Land of the Free -

    Some cartoons on tax audits for the Tea Party.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/05/15/cartoons-of-the-day-irs-and-the-tea-party/
    Lawrence O’Donnell on the same subject.
    http://crooksandliars.com/karoli/about-those-little-tea-party-groups
    Another infant gun incident.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/15/-jarvan-jackson-11-year-old-shot-_n_3278506.html

  • 9
    castle
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 6:53 am | Permalink

    how sick is the Abbott coalition

    http://www.news.com.au/national-news/nsw-act/opposition-blocks-bid-to-be-with-sick-baby/story-fndo4bst-1226643689970

    It is part of Abbotts PPL, the mother gets six month leave with her baby but to offset this carers leave is to be abolished.

  • 10
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:09 am | Permalink

    http://www.news.com.au/national-news/nsw-act/opposition-blocks-bid-to-be-with-sick-baby/story-fndo4bst-1226643689970

    Oh wow Abbott – that’s low, even for you.

    Let us hope that this is the big gaffe we’ve all been waiting for that sends his ratings down the toilet – at the very least, it should rightly trash his approval rating amongst women.

  • 11
    castle
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:16 am | Permalink

    Let us hope that this is the big gaffe we’ve all been waiting for that sends his ratings down the toilet – at the very least, it should rightly trash his approval rating amongst women.

    It is not a gaffe, it is a trade off for his PPL.

    It is well known in sections of the business community that paid careers leave will be abolished to offset the cost and inconvenience of PPL. Mothers will still be able to access carers leave but they will have to purchase it or use annual leave. Business has long complained about the fact they have to pay a mothers wage just because the child s ill.

    Abbott deliberately used the pairing refusal to send a signal to business that he can be tough on mothers and their babies.

  • 12
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:18 am | Permalink

    Abbott deliberately used the pairing refusal to send a signal to business that he can be tough on mothers and their babies.

    Which is him playing politics with the need of a mother to care for her sick child – a rather massive gaffe that I hope the Labor party and the media rightly beat him into the ground for.

  • 13
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:21 am | Permalink

    It seems Johnny is lamenting not taxing food. He recons the Labour party and democrats ignored the mandate of the people in the 1998 election.
    If the 98 election result was as mandate for the libs to tax then he’s a tad disillusioned

    Howard likes to ignore the mandates from that election.

  • 14
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:25 am | Permalink

    Abbott certainly made a mockery of his “care” for mothers and their children. This is just evidence that his PPL is not about women having children but just simple politics.

  • 15
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:32 am | Permalink

    Good morning

    Wayne Swan presser in 20 minutes.

  • 16
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:32 am | Permalink

    The IA contributors and followers who have over empathised with Thomson may pause given this treacherous observation

    ''This won't please some of my colleagues when I say it ... but people including Labor party members may greatly fear Tony Abbott as prime minister but there are great reservations about the leadership of the Labor party,'' he said.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/thomson-to-stand-as-independent-20130516-2jneo.html#ixzz2TOocmpd7

  • 17
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:33 am | Permalink

    Abbott refusing to pair will show voters again that the LOTO has no empathy and is just mean and nasty.

  • 18
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:33 am | Permalink

    Wonder how bad Warren feels being required to implement what is simply misogynistic bullying from Abbott, there were comments last night that we were too anti-Abbott, the problem is we are not anti-Abbott enough. He is a total disgrace.

  • 19
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:35 am | Permalink

    ..
    Leader of the Opposition Tony Abbott and shadow treasurer Joe Hockey. Picture: Dan Himbrechts Source: The Daily Telegraph
    “TONY Abbott is expected to back $43 billion of Labor’s deep spending cuts when he tonight charts the path he plans to take to the prime ministership.
    The Opposition Leader will use his Budget reply speech to map out a “better way” forward for Australia than the Labor vision outlined by the Treasurer on Tuesday night.”

    After refusing to allow a Mother to return home to care for her child…he needs a new “chart” to get himself elected

  • 20
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:40 am | Permalink

    who have over empathised with Thomson

    Guilty or not Thomson has undergone an absolutely disgraceful political prosecution, and when legal investigations run their course the liberals demand they be restarted and they are. I don’t really care if Thonson is guilty or not, the political interference in the justice system is unacceptable and very objectionable.

    I don’t think it is necessary to feel for Thomson at all.

  • 21
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:41 am | Permalink

    Where are the talking heads on News 24 over pairing scandal?

  • 22
    my say
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:43 am | Permalink

    well Is john
    Suggesting to abbott and his mean spirited disciples
    that gst go up with it FOOD
    yes that would the go tony and take 200 fortnight off the pension,
    cabbage bin food will be looking good,

  • 23
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:45 am | Permalink

    not only that the coalition

    Last night the Opposition was accused of lying about one of its own MPs. Alex Somlyay – reportedly absent from Parliament due to an illness – was seen in the parliamentary corridors before a vote.

  • 24
    Socrates
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:47 am | Permalink

    Thomson has arguably benefitted from a very slow investigation of alleged criminal activity. He also had some very unwisely incurred legal bills paid for by his former party, enabling him to stay in parliament.

    Does anyone know how contesting the election affects his parliamentary super? I presume that is his motive. As an indy he has no chance of victory.

  • 25
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:47 am | Permalink

    Its no surprise Newsltd went into bed with the coalition

    none of them can tell the ounce of truth or facts

  • 26
    sprocket_
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:47 am | Permalink

    Just on Thomsons resignation from the ALP and #newcorpse, the Daily ToiletPaper has it as an EXCLUSIVE whilst the OO simply reports the fact, as does Fairfax.

    Paul Whittaker certainly treats his lemming readers with contempt. As do I.

  • 27
    jeffemu
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:50 am | Permalink

    Guytar..

    Perhaps a few tweets to the Talkin Heads at ABC24 might stir the possum.

    Who are our resident tweeters.

  • 28
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:51 am | Permalink

    WWP – Hardly a ringing endorsement (mandate)

    The government was re-elected with 49.02% of the two-party-preferred vote, compared to 50.98% for the Australian Labor Party
    State of the parties
    House of Representatives 1996 1998
    LP* 75 64
    NP 18 16
    CLP 1 –
    ALP 49 67
    IND 5 1
    Total 148 148
    Senate 3 October Election Full Senate
    LP 15 31
    NP 1 3
    CLP 1 1
    ALP 17 29
    DEM 4 9
    HAR 1 1
    HAN 1 1
    GRN – 1
    Total 40 76

  • 29
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:52 am | Permalink

    Wayne Swan on 24 now

  • 30
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:56 am | Permalink

    Where are the talking heads on News 24 over pairing scandal?

    Like most ABC ‘journalists’ they will be following the partisan antigovernment line dictated by News Limited, like lemmings only not as cute.

  • 31
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:57 am | Permalink

    Everyone on my tweetstream is repeating the link to Libs refusing a pair to Michelle Rowland.

    Is TA’s speech so important that it must be watched in HOR?
    Rubbish!

  • 32
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    WWP – Hardly a ringing endorsement (mandate)

    No mandate at all an honest person would say.

  • 33
    my say
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:59 am | Permalink

    o

    so may be the chat go with his minders went
    ==================================
    gosh it is such a good budget
    =================================================,,
    now as they don’t have any polices ]
    did he say. [great I will just say how good it is]

    ============================

    hahahahah tony that’s exactly what we hoped you would
    do

    why would any one want to change gov, if you think the budget is good and you have nothing to offer
    \=========================
    hahahaha

    emmmmmmemmemm wel well folk that’s dash good budget
    sits down

    ====================================

    now jwh thinks we are great

    so now abbott does to,
    if he is endorsing our budget

    why would any one vote for change

    when both he and jwh thinks we are doing very well
    why change to them

    ——————–

    there was great comedy on english tv that surrounded a hotel owner ship]

    reminds me of that

  • 34
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    Morrison on 24

  • 35
    Gaffhook
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:08 am | Permalink

    The best description of the Missing LNP from the NDIS legislation.
    A must read

    http://yathink.com.au/article-display/an-epic-r_chirgwin-twitter-rant-in-disgust-at-coalition-ndis-no-show,71

  • 36
    my say
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    http://www.newsflip.org/2013/05/the-lnp-lethal-negative-pointless.html

    The LNP – Lethal. Negative. Pointless.
    The LNP is the principal threat to progress and equality in Australia

  • 37
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    Now ABC picks it up

    @abcnews: Opposition blocks MP’s bid to be with sick child http://t.co/hftGwBc0B7

  • 38
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:13 am | Permalink

    Warren Entsch

    "If they want pairs in the future they are going to have to be able to produce a darn sight more evidence in relation to the validity of what they are trying to apply," he said.
    "People's obligation in the first instance is to be in this parliament."

    What do they want? The sick child carted into Parliament to prove it? A doctor’s certificate?

  • 39
    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:16 am | Permalink

    Morning all – the Grub on radio National making excuses about yesterdays LNP no show.

  • 40
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:17 am | Permalink

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/5/16/federal-budget/budget-2013-hockey-suggests-coalition-budget-support-likely?utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=292724&utm_campaign=am&modapt=

    The LNP know they are running to catch up with Labor on fiscal policy. They will concede to Labor on the budget and offer nothing of their own. What a feeble bunch they are. There are a dozen things they could propose that would improve the fiscal outlook and the economy, but not one single idea will be forthcoming. Not one. They are the most intellectually barren opposition I can recollect. They are a total political wasteland.

  • 41
    meher baba
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:18 am | Permalink

    Gee, two big stuff-ups in a single day: the no show at the Introduction of the Disability legislation and now the Michelle Rowland thing (with, if it’s true, the bizarre sub plot involving Somylay).

    And Abbott seeming somewhat rattled in his media performances yesterday.

    What’s going on? Abbott’s brains trust has been near-faultless up to now. Is it Peta’s baby brain? Is it a symptom of some strange internal rumblings?

    I still think Abbott is thinking of pulling some sort of SSO stunt today or tonight. But they are agitated about it for some reason. Perhaps they have secured the support of a couple of cross-benchers and are really on the verge of bringing down the Government. It seems highly unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

    And it would explain the refusal of a pair to Rowland.

  • 42
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:21 am | Permalink

    @MrDenmore: The New York Times says the USA needs to take lessons from Australia in building a retirement savings system http://t.co/4hRrBLfsya

  • 43
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:22 am | Permalink

    And it would explain the refusal of a pair to Rowland.

    If you had the numbers and could procedurally move a motion of no confidence, doing it where you are supposed to have the budget reply speech would be a very good time to do it.

  • 44
    joe carli
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:23 am | Permalink

    C’mon Arrnea..; “Let us hope that this is the big gaffe we’ve all been waiting for that sends his ratings down the toilet – at the very least, it should rightly trash his approval rating amongst women.”

    Some of those sick OM. journo’s would SELL their babies rather than lay shite on the LOTO!

  • 45
    my say
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:24 am | Permalink

    a poster

    mentioned that this picture, re parliament. was shown on the drum.

    but I have not seen it on other news outlets

    if it wasn’t shown we should all be emailing the
    media channels and asking why
    =========================
    after all people with disabilities watch tv
    and see adds

    it is the only way to get response remember the
    myer petition
    that at least got the cause publcity
    ==============

    the media have no right to ignore this picture
    its a very good news story for lots of people
    not for others

    but we watch the channels and see the same adds

    I am fed up with being treated with indifference because
    we vote the way we want to vote

    ========================================

  • 46
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:25 am | Permalink

    meher baba

    I still think Abbott is thinking of pulling some sort of SSO stunt today or tonight. But they are agitated about it for some reason. Perhaps they have secured the support of a couple of cross-benchers and are really on the verge of bringing down the Government. It seems highly unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

    And it would explain the refusal of a pair to Rowland.

    Then I wonder just what WILL be in Abbott’s reply to the Budget. I don’t recall much of last year’s post-budget rant, but doubt it had much reality.

  • 47
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:25 am | Permalink

    The LNP are such an insipid bunch of time-wasters. They have an almost unprecedented ascendancy, and yet they are unable to come up with anything resembling even one meaningful, practical, well-constructed policy of any kind. They have nothing at all to show the electorate – or at least nothing they are prepared to put up for scrutiny, nothing they might have to defend. What a cowardly squad of shonks they will turn out to be.

  • 48
    triton
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:26 am | Permalink

    Morning all.

    Abbott is getting a ton of bad publicity over Michelle Rowland. Twitter has lit up a fair bit on it. Fran has brought it up twice. She gave Tanya P. a free kick, but Scott Morrison wouldn’t go near it.

    Apart from the bad look on his treatment of women vs. his parental leave scheme, it also looks like hubris that he thinks his budget reply speech is important enough to deny a mother being with her sick child.

    I’ll be very surprised if Abbott doesn’t change his mind.

  • 49
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:27 am | Permalink

    If Abbott the coward e agrees to the government cuts, then there is no chance of any no confidence motion

    Then Honestly how can any one thing of supporting the coalition when they are not going to offer any alternative

    Labor wins by default

  • 50
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:28 am | Permalink

    how can any one think of supporting

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