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BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition

Nothing doing in this week's pre-budget poll aggregate, which maintains a holding pattern established in early February.

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It’s been a quiet week for polling, with the major pollsters holding their fire ahead of the budget and leaving the field vacant for the regularly weekly Essential Research and Morgan. With each adhering closely to the trend, there are only minor shifts in this week’s aggregated poll result on voting intention (as displayed on the sidebar). The seat projection has nudged two seats in Labor’s favour, one of which it owes to a 3.1% two-party preferred adjustment that was made to the Tasmanian result last week. That left Labor just shy of a second Tasmanian seat, which a 0.3% shift this week on the national result has helped push them over. The other Labor gain comes off the New South Wales total.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2,682 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition

  1. WeWantPaul

    [WWP – Hardly a ringing endorsement (mandate)]

    No mandate at all an honest person would say.

  2. lizzie

    Everyone on my tweetstream is repeating the link to Libs refusing a pair to Michelle Rowland.

    Is TA’s speech so important that it must be watched in HOR?

  3. WeWantPaul

    [Where are the talking heads on News 24 over pairing scandal?]

    Like most ABC ‘journalists’ they will be following the partisan antigovernment line dictated by News Limited, like lemmings only not as cute.

  4. guytaur

    Wayne Swan on 24 now

  5. AussieAchmed

    WWP – Hardly a ringing endorsement (mandate)

    The government was re-elected with 49.02% of the two-party-preferred vote, compared to 50.98% for the Australian Labor Party
    State of the parties
    House of Representatives 1996 1998
    LP* 75 64
    NP 18 16
    CLP 1 –
    ALP 49 67
    IND 5 1
    Total 148 148
    Senate 3 October Election Full Senate
    LP 15 31
    NP 1 3
    CLP 1 1
    ALP 17 29
    DEM 4 9
    HAR 1 1
    HAN 1 1
    GRN – 1
    Total 40 76

  6. jeffemu


    Perhaps a few tweets to the Talkin Heads at ABC24 might stir the possum.

    Who are our resident tweeters.

  7. sprocket_

    Just on Thomsons resignation from the ALP and #newcorpse, the Daily ToiletPaper has it as an EXCLUSIVE whilst the OO simply reports the fact, as does Fairfax.

    Paul Whittaker certainly treats his lemming readers with contempt. As do I.

  8. Meguire Bob

    Its no surprise Newsltd went into bed with the coalition

    none of them can tell the ounce of truth or facts

  9. Socrates

    Thomson has arguably benefitted from a very slow investigation of alleged criminal activity. He also had some very unwisely incurred legal bills paid for by his former party, enabling him to stay in parliament.

    Does anyone know how contesting the election affects his parliamentary super? I presume that is his motive. As an indy he has no chance of victory.

  10. Meguire Bob

    not only that the coalition

    Last night the Opposition was accused of lying about one of its own MPs. Alex Somlyay – reportedly absent from Parliament due to an illness – was seen in the parliamentary corridors before a vote.

  11. my say

    well Is john
    Suggesting to abbott and his mean spirited disciples
    that gst go up with it FOOD
    yes that would the go tony and take 200 fortnight off the pension,
    cabbage bin food will be looking good,

  12. guytaur

    Where are the talking heads on News 24 over pairing scandal?

  13. WeWantPaul

    [ who have over empathised with Thomson]

    Guilty or not Thomson has undergone an absolutely disgraceful political prosecution, and when legal investigations run their course the liberals demand they be restarted and they are. I don’t really care if Thonson is guilty or not, the political interference in the justice system is unacceptable and very objectionable.

    I don’t think it is necessary to feel for Thomson at all.

  14. AussieAchmed

    Leader of the Opposition Tony Abbott and shadow treasurer Joe Hockey. Picture: Dan Himbrechts Source: The Daily Telegraph
    “TONY Abbott is expected to back $43 billion of Labor’s deep spending cuts when he tonight charts the path he plans to take to the prime ministership.
    The Opposition Leader will use his Budget reply speech to map out a “better way” forward for Australia than the Labor vision outlined by the Treasurer on Tuesday night.”

    After refusing to allow a Mother to return home to care for her child…he needs a new “chart” to get himself elected

  15. WeWantPaul

    Wonder how bad Warren feels being required to implement what is simply misogynistic bullying from Abbott, there were comments last night that we were too anti-Abbott, the problem is we are not anti-Abbott enough. He is a total disgrace.

  16. guytaur

    Abbott refusing to pair will show voters again that the LOTO has no empathy and is just mean and nasty.

  17. shellbell

    The IA contributors and followers who have over empathised with Thomson may pause given this treacherous observation

    [”This won’t please some of my colleagues when I say it … but people including Labor party members may greatly fear Tony Abbott as prime minister but there are great reservations about the leadership of the Labor party,” he said.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/thomson-to-stand-as-independent-20130516-2jneo.html#ixzz2TOocmpd7

  18. guytaur

    Good morning

    Wayne Swan presser in 20 minutes.

  19. AussieAchmed

    Abbott certainly made a mockery of his “care” for mothers and their children. This is just evidence that his PPL is not about women having children but just simple politics.

  20. WeWantPaul

    [It seems Johnny is lamenting not taxing food. He recons the Labour party and democrats ignored the mandate of the people in the 1998 election.
    If the 98 election result was as mandate for the libs to tax then he’s a tad disillusioned]

    Howard likes to ignore the mandates from that election.

  21. Arrnea Stormbringer

    Abbott deliberately used the pairing refusal to send a signal to business that he can be tough on mothers and their babies.

    Which is him playing politics with the need of a mother to care for her sick child – a rather massive gaffe that I hope the Labor party and the media rightly beat him into the ground for.

  22. castle

    [Let us hope that this is the big gaffe we’ve all been waiting for that sends his ratings down the toilet – at the very least, it should rightly trash his approval rating amongst women.]

    It is not a gaffe, it is a trade off for his PPL.

    It is well known in sections of the business community that paid careers leave will be abolished to offset the cost and inconvenience of PPL. Mothers will still be able to access carers leave but they will have to purchase it or use annual leave. Business has long complained about the fact they have to pay a mothers wage just because the child s ill.

    Abbott deliberately used the pairing refusal to send a signal to business that he can be tough on mothers and their babies.

  23. Arrnea Stormbringer


    Oh wow Abbott – that’s low, even for you.

    Let us hope that this is the big gaffe we’ve all been waiting for that sends his ratings down the toilet – at the very least, it should rightly trash his approval rating amongst women.

  24. castle

    [how sick is the Abbott coalition]


    It is part of Abbotts PPL, the mother gets six month leave with her baby but to offset this carers leave is to be abolished.

  25. Meguire Bob

    B K

    Swan and Wong are doing the right thing , Abbott is nothing but a gutless coward

  26. Meguire Bob

    lol shellbell

  27. Meguire Bob

    how sick is the Abbott coalition


    the gillard government will be win by default

  28. shellbell

    ” I can’t, in all good conscience, contest this election as a Labor Party candidate”

    Thomson speaks code for I would have SFA chance at pre- selection.

  29. BK

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    PB’s briefly’s comment last night briefly@2376 on Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44 | The Poll Bludger

    Labor has put up a budget that is optimistic about revenue increases and that supposes very tight spending can be sustained, and that still generates a deficit. Not a big deficit, but still big enough to register with voters.

    So the LNP now have a dilemma. If they argue that they would somehow cut taxes, then it follows they will be proposing a bigger deficit. If they say they are going to cut spending – which is already tight – everyone will want to know where and how and by by how much.

    They can and will whinge about deficits and debts and credibility. But this will also pose a test of their own credibility.

    The public know the fiscal situation is tight. The more the LNP rant about the deficit, the more the public will want to know if the LNP intend to raise taxes or cut spending or both; and the more they will be asked if they are willing to see jobs slashed in (a self-defeating attempt) to drive down the deficit.

    To make matters even more problematic for the LNP, in the lead up to the election Treasury will publish their mandatory pre-election outlook statement. There is every chance that by then the budget assumptions will have changed – especially in relation to the terms of trade, the exchange rate and the flow of revenues.

    Because there are such high expectations that the LNP will win in September, any claims they make about the budget will likely attract more than the usual degree of scrutiny.

    This is a problem for them because they have so many irreconcilable positions. It is just not possible for them to do ALL the things they have mooted – repealing the carbon tax (which raises $8 billion) and replacing it with DAP (which wastes at least $2 billion); repealing part (but not all) of the MRRT; introducing their PPL (which hits business as well as adds $ 2 billion to spending); cutting “waste”, but not cutting social programs; reducing the deficit without increasing taxes; increasing real defence spending by 3% pa at the same time…. and so on.

    The background is that the first one-third of Commonwealth revenue is committed to the States, and this includes GST revenue. Can Abbott cut funding to the States, who depend on the Commonwealth for health, education and public capital spending? Not really. The States are already in the red.

    Commonwealth spending on its own programs – defense, welfare, social support, Family Tax Benefits, and its own running costs – are not really that high. They are just 16% of GDP.

    The up-front deficit implied by the LNP on its OWN PAST PROMISES, together with the Government’s optimistic forecasts, easily exceeds 2% of GDP. If the terms-of-=trade weaken in the next few months, or the currency stays much below the forecast USD1.03, this number could easily run to 3% of GDP, maybe more.

    So what are the LNP going to say about their alternative plans?

    They have at best 16% of GDP to play with. They are already spending at least 18% of GDP before any revisions come into effect or before the election campaign gets going.

    On the face of it, the LNP are promising to make the deficit worse, not better. They cannot point to one single measure they will take to narrow the deficit. Not one. They have no meaningful plans to reform the tax system. On spending, they merely promise looser and not tighter policy.

    They will be asking people to believe they can make wine from water.

    was en very good summary of the Opposition;s prediciament. Now, if only the media would be as forensic.
    I wonder how this will pan out.
    I wouldn’t hold your breath.
    Wong and Swan are starting to use the “gutless” tag on Abbott.
    At last something positive for Labor in NSW.
    Andrew Dyson on the Baby Bonus.
    David Pope is having extreme fun with the Skywhale!
    Yuk!! David Rowe has a shocker on the Budget reply.
    And have a look at this illusionist.

  30. Smaug

    It seems Johnny is lamenting not taxing food. He recons the Labour party and democrats ignored the mandate of the people in the 1998 election.
    If the 98 election result was as mandate for the libs to tax then he’s a tad disillusioned.

  31. Pipe Fitter

    Morning all,
    Booby traps everywhere today ,play safe.