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Budget polling: Newspoll 56-44, Nielsen and Galaxy 54-46

Post-budget polls suggest little change in the voting intention trend, with respondents anticipating a negative impact for them personally and a mixed response for the economy.

Newspoll and Nielsen have both published results this evening, so together with yesterday’s Galaxy the broad outline is as follows (UPDATE: Essential Research and Morgan are now included as well):

• Newspoll is steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 31% for Labor (steady), 46% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 31% and down two on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up one to 37% and up three to 54%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 42-37 to 40-39.

Nielsen is at 54-46 compared with 57-43 last month, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 32% and the Coalition down five to 44%. Julia Gillard is up three on approval to 40% and down three on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down one to 42% and up one to 54%. The two are now level at 46% all on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 50-42 last time.

Galaxy has the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 34% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, all recording little change on last time.

Essential Research is unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of 35% for Labor (up one), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 8% for the Greens (down one).

• The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor steady on 32%, the Coalition down a point to 45.5% and the Greens up half a point to 10%. On both respondent-allocate and previous election preferences, the Coalition lead is down from 56-44 to 55-45.

There’s also a wealth of attitudinal polling concerning the budget and such:

• Nielsen asked if the budget would be “good for Australia”, and got 44% yes and 42% no. Newspoll has 35% believing the budget will be good for the economy (the lowest result since 2000, according to Dennis Shanahan) and 37% believing it will be bad (equal last year, which was the worst result since 1993). Morgan has the budget rated as good by 15%, average by 49% and bad by 29%.

• Nielsen has 15% expecting the budget to make them better off against 52% worse off, while Galaxy has it at 14% and 48% and Essential Research has it at 13% and 36%.

• Newspoll has 41% believing the Coalition could have produced a better budget, and an equal number believing it could not have.

• Abolition of the baby bonus has received strikingly strong support: 68% from Nielsen and 64% from Galaxy, with opposition at 27% and 22%.

• Essential Research shows 20% believing the budget cut spending too much and 34% believing it didn’t cut enough, with 21% opting for the right amount.

• Newspoll has 35% rating Wayne Swan the better treasurer against 39% for Joe Hockey, respectively down two and up one on what I presume to be budget time last year. Similarly, Galaxy has 32% rating Swan “better economic manager” against 36% for Hockey.

• Nielsen asked about constitutional recognition of local government, finding 65% supportive and 18% opposed with little variation between the states. However, I’d be very careful about translating that into likely support at a referendum.

• Essential Research shows 51% believing an Abbott government would “return to WorkChoices”, up three from March, which 26% rate a matter of concern against 15% who do not. Eighty-one per cent of respondents believed workers should be paid more for working outside normal hours.

3047
  • 1
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

    Gauss from the previous thread:

    It also catches high income, high spenders who otherwise may pay little income tax.

    Yes, at the expense of those households with very little, if no surplus income for necessities.

  • 2
    Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

    Two of Labors best possible game changers have been played in the last two weeks; the Budget and Abbots IR policy.

  • 3
    Socrates
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

    (Repeat from previos)

    Eurovision should have a warning – contains graphic Images of Tony Abbott. Yech!

    Seeing Tony Abbott’s promise to create two million jobs for the first time, it is laughable, Except it is not funny. One obvious way to do it would be to sack the 1.8 million state and federal public servants first, then hire them back (mostly) in privatised services. Am I joking? I hope so.
    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1301.0~2012~Main%20Features~Public%20service~91

    Seriously though, two million extra jobs in the next three years is almost mathematically impossible. We only have a workforce of 12 million, including 600,000 unemployed. Population growth over three years will be at most 5%. If we have continued population growth and zero unemployment by 2016, we would have at most an extra 1.2 million jobs. Two million jobs?. ROTFL

    Did Barnaby do the maths?

    Our last remaining free range journalists really should quiz Abbott on the two million jobs.

  • 4
    mari
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

    Question is how will MSM write this up, huge bounce for ALP or a small correction on the way to a huge defeat? :)

  • 5
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    “@Wittyfan: “@GhostWhoVotes #Nielsen Poll Preferred PM: Gillard 51 (+9) Abbott 46 (-4) #auspol””

  • 6
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:15 pm | Permalink

    5 by guytaur,

    That is a fake retweet.

  • 7
    Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:16 pm | Permalink

    This explains why the public holds politicians in contempt. Retiring MPs using up their travel allowance when it will provide no benefit to the tax payer who is paying for it.

    A raft of MPs, both Labor and coalition, are using a travel entitlement that will end in August for international trips, News Limited reported on Sunday.

    These include Labor veteran and Senate president John Hogg, and coalition MPs Patrick Secker, Paul Neville, Mal Washer and Alby Schultz - all of whom are retiring.

    The study tour allowance they have reportedly used to pay for these trips will be wound up with the end of the current parliament.

    "You'd have to ask individuals about why they're doing certain trips," Finance Minister Penny Wong told Network Ten on Sunday.

  • 8
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:16 pm | Permalink

    Ghost

    Oops thanks for correcting.

  • 9
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:17 pm | Permalink

    Do you have any more info on Neilsen Ghost?

  • 10
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

    Just keep checking the Ghost’s Twitter account ML and Guytaur.

  • 11
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

    That travel stuff confirms my view that parliamentarians should be paid no allowances at all for anything up to including running an electorate office. They should just be paid a very, very good salary.

    Then it would be up to them how they spent it and nobody else’s business at all.

  • 12
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    Wouldn’t a Newspoll of, say, 52/48 put the frighteners into Abbott?

  • 13
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    I agree with Boerwar, infact as soon as they announce they retiring all additional benefits should be stopped.

  • 14
    Socrates
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    You must be kidding. Imagine what the Scott Driscoll’s of this world would do then? When people abuse the rules, the solution is not to weaken the rules so that we never find out.

  • 15
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    IT would be Turnbull time! :devil:

  • 16
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    He would have to peddle an extra 2,000 km in order to address the policy implications.

  • 17
    Socrates
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:23 pm | Permalink

    Just to be clear, I was disagreeing with Boerwar’s suggestion to increase the salary to include the allowances.

  • 18
    DisplayName
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib@15

    IT would be Turnbull time!

    You’re dreaming.

  • 19
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

    This explains why the public holds politicians in contempt.

    Yet nothing about taxpayers footing the bill for our LOTO to take regular cycling holidays at the taxpayer’s expense while promoting private companies by way of logos all over his person?

    I’m much more unhappy about that.

  • 20
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

    I going for 54/46′s across the board.

  • 21
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    Socrates

    ‘Boerwar

    You must be kidding. Imagine what the Scott Driscoll’s of this world would do then? When people abuse the rules, the solution is not to weaken the rules so that we never find out.’

    The rule would be that they get a million or whatever. That is the rule.

    What they do with it would be up to them. That is a good rule. All of them would still run an electorate office. It would be efficient and effective because the dosh would come from their own pockets. If they want to travel, they can travel. The money is their’s. If they want to got to brothels, ditto.

    It would instantly get rid of all the petty rorting, fiddles, grey areas, sleeping on someone’s couch, falsely declaring where you live, shonky ‘contracts’, issues with relatives getting a possie, etc, etc, etc.

    It would also get rid of all the trashcan trawling and the like that goes on in order to develop sleazoid dirt files.

  • 22
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    Good result for the govt.
    At this stage of the game they are still right in it.
    No leader ratings yet?
    Stick phat team ALP, monkey has finally opened a lot flanks for us to nail him.

  • 23
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    dwh
    You would.

  • 24
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

    davidwh,

    Your forecast, based on teh polls or your navel gazing, for 14/9 is?

  • 25
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

    socrates

    ‘Just to be clear, I was disagreeing with Boerwar’s suggestion to increase the salary to include the allowances.’

    I thought that that was what your were up to.

    Incidentally, my apologies for letting the Danish pastry out of the cake tin just before. It hadn’t occurred to me that folk such as yourself might have been looking forward to enjoying a suspenseful replay on SBS tonight.

  • 26
    Phil Vee
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    Ghostwhovotes also reports #Galaxy Poll Personal impact of #Budget: Better off 23 Worse off 46

    I remind Bludgers that this question gave no option for “neither better nor worse” but presumably 31% of us replied that way or didn’t answer at all.
    And with that my brief flickering political power in persuading the nation, evaporates.

  • 27
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    These polls are a bit of a puzzle, aren’t they, bludgers? If, as everyone says (even Labor people off the record), Labor’s vote has collapsed in NSW, and has also dropped everywhere else, even in Victoria now we are told, how can we still be at 46% nationally, which is only a 4% swing and a loss of 14 seats? Most Labor people are expecting to lose 20 or 25, yet the polls have generally been better than that, even since the downturn in January. If there really is a big swing in the NSW (which I don’t doubt), there must be much smaller swings elsewhere to produce this result. It’s a mystery.

  • 28
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    Could be a variant of the BC effect.

  • 29
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    PV

    ‘And with that my brief flickering political power in persuading the nation, evaporates.’

    A moth to the flame of fame.

  • 30
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    Here is the correct one. Sorry again to Ghost

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Nielsen Poll Preferred PM: Gillard 46 (+4) Abbott 46 (-4) #auspol”

  • 31
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    g
    Hah!

  • 32
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    Have never been too confident about 14/9 Puff other than the Coalition are in the better position and it will be hard for Labor to make up the difference. Not impossible just hard.

  • 33
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    “@bengrubb: No wonder Greece is having a financial crisis. Alcohol is free there #sbseurovision”

  • 34
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    Is there reason to believe Newspoll will be tonight or will we get a Monday night release as usual?

    The twin 54s have knocked a point off my 2PP estimate, now at 54.4.

  • 35
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    Psephos,

    Have any entrails handy?

  • 36
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    Sorry my 33 I hit post before adding comment

    Mari is this why you visit Greece? :grin:

  • 37
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    Kevin Newspoll have released on a Sunday when Nielsen have polled on the same weekend but it’s a bit of a lottery.

  • 38
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

    If I had a white heifer handy I would sacrifice it.

  • 39
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    Craig Pendlebury ‏@BrigadierSlog 1m

    Looks like a tough week for Marge Abbott coming up RT @GhostWhoVotes: #Nielsen Poll Preferred PM: Gillard 46 (+4) Abbott 46 (-4) #auspol

  • 40
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    Psephos
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:30 pm | PERMALINK
    These polls are a bit of a puzzle, aren’t they, bludgers? If, as everyone says (even Labor people off the record), Labor’s vote has collapsed in NSW, and has also dropped everywhere else, even in Victoria now we are told, how can we still be at 46% nationally, which is only a 4% swing and a loss of 14 seats?

    14 seats?

    I make a 4% swing about a 92-58 seat HOR

  • 41
    mari
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:35 pm | PERMALINK
    Sorry my 33 I hit post before adding comment

    Mari is this why you visit Greece?

    How could you say that Guytaur :)
    It is for me I am usually given ouzo if I want it or not

  • 42
    outside left
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar, 52 48 will be soon enough, but way too late to ditch crusader rabbott , As it tightens , the neocons will be singing higher than the Beegees

  • 43
    Gauss
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    Socrates @ 3

    Seriously though, two million extra jobs in the next three years is almost mathematically impossible.

    Not three years, 10 years

    http://www.liberal.org.au/strong-australia

    Today I released A Strong Australia which is the foundation of a future Coalition government. It details our plans to create a diverse five pillar powerhouse economy that can create one million new jobs over the next five years – and two million new jobs over ten years.

    Not impossible, some good analysis & charts in the following link.

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4407638.html

    So is the aim of a million jobs in the next five years just a lay down misere? Well, yes and no.

    Jobs targets are always tough to reach – just ask Treasurer Wayne Swan, who in his 2011-12 budget speech forecast 500,000 jobs by mid-2013. Since his speech, only 109,000 have been created, and the Treasury only forecasts another 90,000 more new jobs between now and mid-2013.

  • 44
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    Psephos:

    So what result do you expect to happen on Sep 14th?

  • 45
    Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    William’s BludgerTrack has the swing in NSW at about the national average. It doesn’t seem to have collapsed in the polls.

  • 46
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    Good result, less trolls on pollbludger this week.

  • 47
    Nemspy
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    Other than the occasional outlier I don’t see it tightening in much more than 54/46. Labor aren’t really providing any justifications for their own return to government except that Julia Gillard isn’t Tony Abbott. Unfortunately, Tony Abbott not being Julia Gillard is slightly more of a selling point in this depressing political climate.

  • 48
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    Good result for the Libs.

    Gonski out there as not going to happen,
    GST out there with Labor scare campaign,
    IR out there with Labor scare campaign.

    Any other Shots in the Labor locker?

  • 49
    briefly
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    27
    Psephos

    These polls are a bit of a puzzle, aren’t they, bludgers? If, as everyone says (even Labor people off the record), Labor’s vote has collapsed in NSW, and has also dropped everywhere else, even in Victoria now we are told, how can we still be at 46% nationally, which is only a 4% swing and a loss of 14 seats? Most Labor people are expecting to lose 20 or 25, yet the polls have generally been better than that, even since the downturn in January. If there really is a big swing in the NSW (which I don’t doubt), there must be much smaller swings elsewhere to produce this result. It’s a mystery.

    There is one obvious explanation – as people begin to focus on the seemingly live chances of an LNP victory, at least some are starting to have second thoughts.

    The fact that Labor division has receded from view is also helpful.

  • 50
    This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    Psephos,

    Check the Demons for a suitable sacrifice.

    I am a fan of Melbourne, really.

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