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BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition

A deluge of post-budget polling has slightly improved Labor's position, and maintained a primary vote surge for “others”.

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The flurry of post-budget polling, encompassing Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy, Essential Research and Morgan (so basically everyone except ReachTEL), came in slightly above Labor’s recent form, pushing them up 0.5% on two-party preferred on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor also gains three on the seat projection, which come off the totals for Victoria (where they were boosted by a 54-46 lead in Nielsen), South Australia and the territories. On the primary vote, the “others” total has increased for a fifth week in a row, to a level matched in the current term only in March and July 2012. See the sidebar for full details.

Some further polling nuggets:

Gemma Daley of the Financial Review reports a poll of 600 respondents conducted “by the resources industry” which shows Tony Windsor surprisingly well placed in New England, with 49% to Barnaby Joyce’s 38%. Previous polling in New England over the current term has included a Newspoll survey of 504 respondents in October 2011 which had an as-yet-unchosen Nationals candidate leading Windsor 41% to 33%, and a ReachTEL in June 2012 which had the Nationals lead as high as 62% to 25%.

• Somewhat confusingly, the resources industry poll also covered “a sample that concentrated in three western Sydney seats, which was extended to all of the seats in the area”. This showed Labor would “at best achieve a 44 per cent two-party preferred result”, costing it every seat in western Sydney.

• Roy Morgan offers further budget polling, conducted by SMS and involving 1409 respondents, half contacted before the budget and half after. Asked whether the budget would “benefit you and your family”, 32% said yes before the event and 68% said no, which was little changed afterwards (30% and 70%). Also featured are age and gender breakdowns.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2393 comments

2,393 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition

  1. briefly

    [2337
    Compact Crank

    Puff – one minute you’re being flippant about reds under the bed and the next you’re getting all uptight for being taken to task for it – I ask the same of you as from AFL Umpires – consistency.]

    Actually, she was being flippant about YOU. But that is a logical return on your conduct, which really is an insult to the intelligence of the bludgers.

  2. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Hi CW,
    Want to call me? My voice is croaky but it is there.

  3. Compact Crank

    Lots of white global warming lying around in the Dolomites today and more falling.

  4. Carey Moore

    [Go to 20 different polling booths using 20 different names using the addresses from the phone book.]

    And, wow, you changed 20 votes in an electorate of 90,000! All that effort for 20 votes. That’s why voter fraud conspiracies are stupid. Such an effort would just be too difficult and infeasible.

    Voter fraud exists in places where a vested party controls the process and can stuff ballot boxes or put deceased names on the roll etc. However the AEC and its equivalent state branches have proven to be effective and neutral in voter registration and election running.

  5. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    CC
    No you didn’t. You made a statement that I supported the regimes of the USSR which oppressed and murdered their citizens. I am not ‘uptight’ either. Stop using a blame shifting metaphor, it is not my ‘uptightness’, it is your insult.

  6. briefly

    [2346
    Compact Crank

    Lots of white global warming lying around in the Dolomites today and more falling.]

    And another timely effort on your part, illustrating once again that your main roles here are to insult the intelligence and impose on the good humour of the bludgers.

  7. Compact Crank

    The security on this blog is probably high enough to effectively run an election yet posters see it as some right wing threat – what marvelous power we possess.

  8. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    The only self blame here for me is trying to talk sense to CC. But I suppose even an exercise in futility is exercise.

  9. DisplayName

    carey, he hasn’t even changed them, he’s caused the same names to be crossed off more than once.

  10. Sean Tisme

    [actually, I’m not going to wait for you to think.

    That’s 20 people who have voted twice.]

    Bingo…!!!

    Now how do we disqualify their vote… just gotta go into the ballot box and pull out the ones with my name on it… oh… shit… wait…

    You didn’t think this one through did you? It doesn’t matter how many names they count on the ballot books every vote is accepted as genuine otherwise they need a complete revote.

    Now online system… 4 votes from the same guy with the same address, each one linked to a confirmation number that can be matched to their vote.

  11. frednk

    [Compact Crank
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    The security on this blog is probably high enough to effectively run an election yet posters see it as some right wing threat – what marvelous power we possess.]

    The faith Australians have in the AEC is a lot higher than “probably”

  12. briefly

    [2350
    Compact Crank

    The security on this blog is probably high enough to effectively run an election yet posters see it as some right wing threat – what marvelous power we possess.]

    Sensible people everywhere are afraid of right wing zealotry and deceit, CC. Your mob have form and the cultural memory is very long and deep.

  13. DisplayName

    Sean, a little arithmetic will tell them if the result depends on those extra votes …

  14. Carey Moore

    [The security on this blog is probably high enough to effectively run an election yet posters see it as some right wing threat – what marvelous power we possess.]

    Dude, you’re the one spouting the unsubstantiated, tin-foil hat, conspiracy theory here…

  15. DisplayName

    So now they need to be able to subtract :P.

  16. Compact Crank

    Given the way Unions and ALP factions like to un elections I think Australian voters have mor to fear from left than the right.

  17. Carey Moore

    [Given the way Unions and ALP factions like to un elections I think Australian voters have mor to fear from left than the right.]

    Expand please.

  18. Compact Crank

    Carey – they like to check their minions are voting the correct way.

  19. Carey Moore

    [Carey – they like to check their minions are voting the correct way.]

    Proof?

  20. mimhoff

    [Proof?]

    The need to prove things with evidence is a leftist conspiracy. Weren’t you listening to Battle Turkey last night?

  21. DisplayName

    That’s about as useful as saying business people shouldn’t be politicians because businesses are not democratic institutions.

  22. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    displayname
    I have not heard that one before. I will put it in my knapsack.

  23. DisplayName

    no worries puff, just remember you get what you pay for 😛

  24. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    DName
    Who forgot to pay Sean?

  25. crikey whitey

    Puff

    Cannot. Speak tomorrow. Maybe.

  26. AussieAchmed

    ST – Go to a POLLING BOOTH is you are an undriving, internet-free, mobile phone devoid moron.

    You prove you are an immature foul mouthed under educated indulged little twerp who is so full of himself that people shun you

    Your opinion is that anyone who;
    a) doesn’t have a drvers licence
    b) doesn’t have the internet
    c) does not have a mobile phone
    – is a moron

    Perhaps you should take a trip out to some of the remote aboriginal communities (and I can help you out there)or visit an old people’s home and tell the people that live in these places they are “morons”.

  27. AussieAchmed

    Compact Crank
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 11:53 pm | Permalink
    Carey – they like to check their minions are voting the correct way.

    What a crock of bullsh-t

  28. briefly

    [2359
    Compact Crank

    Given the way Unions and ALP factions like to un elections I think Australian voters have mor to fear from left than the right.]

    Yet another vague and unsubstantiated allegation of some
    kind, and one that frames politics as contest between “left” and “right.”

    While I am happy to concede the “Right” self-identify and conform to a set of ideological values, I don’t think the case can be made for the existence of a “Left” in Australian politics, other than (possibly) in some of the deeper recesses of the Greens.

    I think there is a dominant paradigm within which most issues are conceived, debated, contested and decided. I think the self-classifying “Right” want to change this paradigm.

    This “Rightist” group have adopted some, but not the most important and valuable, insights of market economics. And they have appropriated some of the language of so-called libertarians. But mostly this is a facade. This group is misnamed. They are really only about one thing: defending and advancing social and economic privilege.

    It follows that individuals and social groups that act to arrest privilege – like unions, social democratic political parties, consumer rights advocates, environmental organisations, many instruments of the State, elements of the judiciary, scientists and academics and independently educated voices such as those that express themselves here – are subject to ongoing political and cultural criticism.

    It suits the “Right” to lump us all together and label us as “Left”. But this too is a misnomer, because in fact there is great diversity among what are very heterodox actors. And really, this is why the “Right” will fail. They do not understand the source of their opposition.

    They might like to suppose their opponents are in some way as organised and managed as there own thinking is guided and scripted. But reality is not like this. The opposition to the “Right” is spontaneous, creative, based in lived reality (rather than in ideological fantasy), is socially-generated, widely distributed, has its own rich memories. It is therefore irresistible.

  29. DisplayName

    puff, Compact Crank

  30. zoidlord

    Sounds like @CC and @Sean have been trolling you guys…

  31. DisplayName

    now now, CC isn’t a troll.

  32. briefly

    zoidlord….you may be right!

    Nevertheless, their themes are frequently canvassed. It is still good to deal with them at face value. It is necessary to refute them – to answer them and to contest their methods.

  33. zoidlord

    @briefly,

    True….

    Btw, there is a ANOTHER site popped up with a great timeline done by one of the members on another forum on the history of telecommunications:
    http://www.tiki-toki.com/timeline/entry/126636/Telecommunications-Australia/

  34. mexicanbeemer

    Visiting the polling booth is like like visiting the TAB on Melbourne Cup day

    Part of the experience.

    Its a traditional that doesn’t need changing.

  35. Carey Moore

    As I said before, if you’re agoraphobic or socially avoidant, then postal vote. It’s an easy process that currently exists and enables you to avoid that pesky journey down to your local primary school and exposure to all those other people there…

  36. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    And the polling booth battery doesn’t go flat.

  37. crikey whitey

    It was my birthday yesterday, and my sister Sally’s birthday today.

    My sister has the breathless thing, as do I.

    I think that Puff is suffering it.

    I do hope that Puff and my dear sister Sally are ok.

    Even though Sally is dopey enough to vote Liberal.

  38. Puff, the Magic Dragon.
  39. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    cw
    I hope your sister and you get well soon, this thing is awful. I kept coughing until my ribs hurt.

  40. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Thanks CW, I am chewing the Aussie garlic, drinking the hot lemon juice with brandy and swallowing antibiotics.

  41. zoidlord

    Crikey, Puff, Hope you both get well soon 🙂

  42. deblonay

    Pff

    try fresh ginger too
    several teasponns a day..or mixed into hot drinks.lemon etc

    A Chinese relative says itg a great remedy in China

    Buy some small jars in the supermarket…the fresh mashed ginger is best Masterfoods is good…mixes with honey and hot milk…and is very nice

  43. deblonay

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/ill-wind-blows-through-liberal-ranks-20130525-2n42l.html
    In Canberra some LIbs are in revolt against climate change and the scientific ideas

    shades of the Tea Party in the US

  44. briefly

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/25/us-sweden-riots-idUSBRE94N0LN20130525

    [Sixth night of violence in Sweden, but police say capital calmer…

    Community patrols and a beefed-up police presence helped to calm violence around Stockholm overnight on Saturday but 20 to 30 cars were still torched in poor immigrant suburbs and serious incidents were reported outside the capital for the first time.

    The rioting in Stockholm abated after a week of masked youths vandalizing schools and police stations, setting cars alight and hurling stones at firefighters, police said.

    “It was much calmer – rocks weren’t being thrown at police or firefighters – and that’s a sign that it’s calmer. We haven’t had any riots or anything similar,” said police spokesman Kjell Lindgren.

    Community leaders were taking to the streets, dressed in fluorescent jackets, to try to calm things down.

    “We have been present in many places, we’ve been talking to people, and many residents have been out in the city, keeping their eyes open, being engaged,” Lindgren said.

    But serious incidents were reported outside the Stockholm area, for the first time.

    …..Underscoring Sweden’s ambivalence toward its open immigration policies, an anti-immigrant party has risen to third in polls this year and some analysts say the riots could swell its ranks.

    Dozens of far-right activists were seen driving around some southern suburbs of Stockholm on Friday, closely watched by police.

    MASKED YOUTHS

    The violence has echoes of rioting in recent years in Paris and London but has been relatively mild in comparison. There has been no looting, hardly any injuries and few arrests.

    Much of the capital has gone about business as normal and even affected suburbs look normal by day.

    Still, it has shocked a nation that has long taken pride in its generous social safety net, though some seven years of centre-right rule have chipped away at benefits.

    One recent government study showed that up to a third of young people aged 16 to 29 in some of the most deprived areas of Sweden’s big cities neither study nor have a job.

    Youth unemployment is especially high in neighborhoods such as the ones where the riots have taken place, home to asylum seekers from Iraq to Somalia, Afghanistan and Latin America.

    About 15 percent of Sweden’s population is foreign-born. While many are from neighboring Nordic countries, others are drawn by the country’s policy of welcoming asylum seekers from war-torn countries.

    The gap between rich and poor in Sweden is growing faster than in any other major nation, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.]

    Reuters doesn’t say who is responsible for the violence in Sweden. Is it rightist gangs? Is it alienated immigrant youth?

    There is a message in this for us too, and that is that failure to properly settle immigrant populations can lead to trouble.

  45. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Thanks Deblonay
    I forgot about the ginger.

  46. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    deblonay
    The importation of teaparty ideology into Australia is one of the threats to our future. And Corgi Bernardi is one of the dangerous nutters responsible for it, imo.

    On a related matter, when I heard the Anti Vaccine Nutter on radio, she had an American accent. For once in my life, I felt like yelling, “go home if you don’t like it.”

  47. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    The only thing I can find about the AVN founders bio.
    [Meryl Dorey

    Meryl Dorey is a native New Yorker who settled in Australia 14 years ago. She and her husband Ken, an avid rainforest regenerator, have 4 children ranging in age from 13 to 6. Her eldest son was injured by vaccines, leading her to start researching the issues of vaccination and health. Her findings led to the formation of a local vaccination support group which eventually merged with other groups across Australia to form the Australian Vaccination Network (AVN). Their new magazine, “Informed Choice”, covers all health issues from the perspective of cure and prevention without the use of drugs or vaccines. Subscriptions are $44 a year and include discounts on books and seminars as well as premiums at many practitioner’s offices… ]
    I have cut out their links, the less the better imo.

    Found on:
    http://kindred.dev-site.org/author/meryldorey/bio/30

  48. Dan Gulberry

    Sean Tisme@2290

    We already do… it’s called your mobile phone number.

    Absolute stupidity. There’s nothing more insecure than tying everything to the most stolen item in the world (mobile phones).

    Plus it removes the “secret” part of the secret ballot.

    A government you didn’t vote for (of any persuasion) knows exactly how you voted.

    These Thirteenth Century minds haven’t got their heads around 20th Century technology yet, let alone 21st.

    #Fraudband is a perfect example of this lack of vision.