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Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Galaxy follows up Saturday’s state poll with federal voting intention results for Queensland, painting the usual grim picture for Labor.

GhostWhoVotes reports the Galaxy poll of 800 Queensland respondents which gave us state results on Saturday now brings us federal results, indicating a 59-41 Coalition lead in the state from a swing of about 4%. This compares with a 55-45 result in the last such poll in February, which seemed a little favourable to Labor at the time. On the primary vote, Labor is down five to 28% and the Coalition is steady on 46%.

There has also been Queensland state polling over the weekend from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which you can read all about here.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 34%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48% and 8%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 55-45. Other questions find Joe Hockey leading Wayne Swan as more trusted to handle the economy 37-28, out from 35-32 before the budget; 43% believing Tony Abbott should accept the Gonski reforms against 34% who favour the existing model; 51% saying climate change is caused by humans against 35% opting for normal fluctuation; support on opposition for carbon pricing tied at 43% all, the most favourable result yet recorded; 39% favouring it against 29% for the Liberals’ “direct action” policy (at least with respect to the policies as described in the question); and only 26% believing Tony Abbott will fulfill his promise to remove both the mining and carbon taxes while keeping the carbon tax compensation measures.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up 1.5% to 33.5%, the Coalition steady on 45.5% and the Greens down half a point to 9.5%. Both respondent allocated and previous election two-party preferred measures have shifted from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5, providing further evidence that Morgan’s new methodology has resolved the inexplicable discrepancy between these measures which bedevilled the old face-to-face series (as well as its Labor bias).

1883
  • 1
    rummel
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    Abbott, soon to be PM

  • 2
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    It sort of points to the possibility that KAP and PUP are taking more votes from Labor than LNP. A big qualification on this result is that it is inconsistent with the Nielsen state break-up although the Nielsen poll is a much smaller sample.

  • 3
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    Gillard is the Gift that keeps Giving

  • 4
    spur212
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    From 28% primary vote, that’s 8% primary vote required between now and the election to get to the magic 36% number which is needed in order to win some seats …

    Not going to happen with Gillard/Swan at the helm!

    And if the ALP can’t win seats in Queensland, they’re for lack of a better word, screwed

  • 5
    Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    From the last thread
    William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

    I’m sure they’ll have Dame Edna on shortly.

    Not entirely far-fetched. Dame Edna took her title from having it conferred on her by Gugh at Sydney Airport.

    Philip Adams and whoever else was involved (Bruce Beresford?) had got Gough to agree to a brief cameo in their Bsrry McKenzie film. Meeting the McKenzie people (including Aunt Edna), along with a band and the Rooty Hill Marching Girls.

    I think Gough, ever the ham, improvised the next bit and conferred a Damehood on Edna, She played along with it, with a very grateful bow and cutsey, and has ever since been Dame Edna.

  • 6
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    We are likely to see the Rudd effect important in QLD right up to the election. Can’t see QLD saving Labor despite the problems caused by Katter and Palmer. NSW remains the key to the federal election.

  • 7
    spur212
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    davidwh

    If the ALP doesn’t win seats in Queensland, what happens in NSW will be immaterial in realtion to the end result

  • 8
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    Spur I just can’t see Labor winning many seats in QLD with their current leadership team. Rudd is still the injured party and the Newman effect has faded.

  • 9
    spur212
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    davidwh

    Neither can I. It’s not so much that the Newman effect has faded. It’s more that Gillard is back in the spotlight in the state

  • 10
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    Emails for the SA Chapter Queens Birthday Weekend Knees Up were just sent out. If you want to come and don’t get an email, contact me by email address ajaxstamp at hotmail dot com.

  • 11
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    Queensland is a sad case. That is one place which could never govern itself. It should have been made a territory decades ago.

  • 12
    silmaj
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

    Having lived in SA and now live in Qld I’m not sure that
    Saying qld is a sad case applys

  • 13
    briefly
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

    3
    Sean Tisme

    Gillard is the Gift that keeps Giving

    Not to worry, we know the LNP will completely wreck everything if they do win. For sure, at best a Pyrrhic victory lies ahead them.

    We’ve seen it all before: slovenly incompetence, dim-witted waste, weakness and arrogance for all to enjoy.

  • 14
    Nemspy
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

    The latest spluttering choke in the most drawn-out death rattle of any Australian government.

  • 15
    briefly
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    Labor appears to be getting smacked for the decline in the QLD economy, which so far has been relatively mild. Once the LNP get the chance to wreck the national economy too, the downturn in QLD will seem very mild indeed.

  • 16
    Zorica Sherrington
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Increasingly hard to see where Labor is going to pick up LNP seats to get out of minority government. I wonder if announcing the election date so early was a good move or if it just meant more people than usual have made their choice early.

    It’s seems for Labor to avoid defeat there is going to have to be a new game changer now NDIS, Gonski, IR and the budget have all done the rounds and havent put the ALP in the lead. Not sure what that could be?

  • 17
    briefly
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    1
    rummel

    Abbott, soon to be PM

    A truly funny idea. The more I think about it, the more astonishing it is.

  • 18
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    Stop gloating, or whinging. This contest is far from over yet.

  • 19
    rummel
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    briefly
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:59 pm | PERMALINK
    1
    rummel

    Abbott, soon to be PM

    A truly funny idea. The more I think about it, the more astonishing it is.

    Briefly,

    I still dont think most on the left have really thought about it… still hoping it will all just go away.

  • 20
    Nemspy
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    briefly

    We’ve seen it all before: slovenly incompetence, dim-witted waste, weakness and arrogance for all to enjoy

    Indeed we have! 2007-present!

  • 21
    Nemspy
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    briefly
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    1
    rummel

    Abbott, soon to be PM

    A truly funny idea. The more I think about it, the more astonishing it is.

    Yep, he’s terrible. So bad that even I, as someone who has voted for the Coalition my entire life, am not going to vote at this election because I can’t stomach voting for Abbott.

    And yet, barring some sort of miracle, Gillard is going to lose in a landslide.

    What does that say about Gillard?

  • 22
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:09 am | Permalink

    Zoomster and Puff

    Excuse me. Sudden influx of visitors.

    Thanks both. Ginger Up! Zoomster, book sounds excellent.

  • 23
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    Zorica Sherrington

    Fabulous names.

  • 24
    silmaj
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:14 am | Permalink

    The downturn in the economy is not restricted to Qld.It is everywhere. The people experiencing the downturn will no doubt wonder why,after many years of growth why now. The GFC experience here may have been temporarily delayed or over time actually magnified. Only in a year or two will we know. It takes a long time to slow a competent economy(we weren’t Selling paper bag surprise mortgages) it also takes a long time and different direction to accelerate it again. Is what is being offered at the next election going to solve it? I think not.
    Some new thinking is required. However this Govt will Go No Doubt.

  • 25
    rummel
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:18 am | Permalink

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/ofarrell-out-to-trump-pm-on-sports-betting-20130526-2n5e4.html

    Ofaty out swining

  • 26
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:21 am | Permalink

    GD
    I love your recollections.

  • 27
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    In a statement released almost immediately after Ms Gillard’s statement, the country’s broadcasters announced that they had accepted her demands.

    “These are unprecedented restrictions for broadcasters but we accept the government has acted in response to community concern,” Free TV chief executive Julie Flynn said.

    The Australian Wagering Council also accepted the proposal, saying it understood there were “community concerns” and it did “not want children talking about gambling odds”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/ofarrell-out-to-trump-pm-on-sports-betting-20130526-2n5e4.html#ixzz2UPOfh9It

  • 28
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:28 am | Permalink

    And yet, barring some sort of miracle, Gillard is going to lose in a landslide.

    What does that say about Gillard?

    Given the predictions of her doom “any day now” the punditocracy over three years – all of which have been completely wrong – I’d say she doesn’t need a miracle, just business as usual.

  • 29
    Zorica Sherrington
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:35 am | Permalink

    @bushfire bill

    Business as usual… For the last 3 years JG Labor has been behind in the polls. Tests at the state and territory elections during this time don’t exactly give a lot of hope for the ALP cause either.

    State by state or seat by seat, where are the extra four seats going to come from, plus whatever else is needed to offset any lost to the LNP?

    I can see the LNP path to a majority, Fisher, Lyne and o’Conner, it looks a fair bit easier than Labors path. Where do you see the LNP vulnerability to lose seats to Labor?

  • 30
    rummel
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:35 am | Permalink

    http://www.news.com.au/national-news/labor-heads-are-in-the-sand/story-fncynjr2-1226650952880

  • 31
    mimhoff
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:42 am | Permalink

    I still dont think most on the left have really thought about it… still hoping it will all just go away.

    Let us know when you’ve really thought about it.

  • 32
    briefly
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:44 am | Permalink

    16
    Zorica Sherrington

    Increasingly hard to see where Labor is going to pick up LNP seats to get out of minority government. I wonder if announcing the election date so early was a good move or if it just meant more people than usual have made their choice early.

    It’s seems for Labor to avoid defeat there is going to have to be a new game changer now NDIS, Gonski, IR and the budget have all done the rounds and havent put the ALP in the lead. Not sure what that could be?

    There’s probably nothing to be done. We should all prepare for chaos. The LNP are demonstrably incapable. This is our fate: to be subject to gross misrule by the abjectly unprepared.

    In 2007, during Rudd’s ascendancy, it was pretty clear the US property bubble would break sometime in the following year or two. Sure enough, after property prices peaked in 2005 and then slipped a little for 3 years, the sub-prime crisis triggered a collapse in high-risk lending in 2008, which rapidly relayed contraction through US banking, leading to a decline in the property market of about 35% by 2009.

    The US had a property bubble. But we have four bubbles: our own property market, bulk commodity incomes, the surge of capital into resources and energy and the balloon that is the AUD. The latter three are clearly now deflating. As this process starts to harm household incomes, we should expect the first bubble – property – to also succumb.

    Realistically, unless we get very lucky, very clever or very determined, or all three, we are rooted.

  • 33
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:48 am | Permalink

    They need to roll Gillard immediately and reinstate PM Rudd if only to save the furniture.

  • 34
    briefly
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:49 am | Permalink

    19
    rummel

    briefly
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:59 pm | PERMALINK
    1
    rummel

    Abbott, soon to be PM

    A truly funny idea. The more I think about it, the more astonishing it is.

    Briefly,

    I still dont think most on the left have really thought about it… still hoping it will all just go away.

    Well, I have been pondering on it for some time. Perhaps that’s why I’m so bearish these days.

  • 35
    briefly
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:51 am | Permalink

    33
    Sean Tisme

    They need to roll Gillard immediately and reinstate PM Rudd if only to save the furniture.

    From my point of view, Rudd is the old rocking chair. It can go on the fire too.

  • 36
    Zorica Sherrington
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:55 am | Permalink

    @briefly – you may well be correct in your view of the economy. It may perhaps be a good election for Labor to lose. Fiscal policy lever has already been pulled and the electorate has little appetite for increasing the debt. IR is a debate we can’t have due to political sensitivity. That pretty much leaves monetary policy, interest rates still have room to move downwards, which should also lower the dollar.

    Looks like whoever wins will have tied hands and few options to handle the buffering of the world economy. I do sense that business and consumer confidence should come back a bit with a majority government, but they are both fickle things.

  • 37
    Gecko
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 12:59 am | Permalink

    59-41
    Fair enough… Labor should now recognise Qld’s propensity for idiotic policy and give it to them – FTTN – Eductaion funding as per normal – no green energy money – no flood plan – no super concessions – and all the Libs intended cuts with fewer Federal public servants in support… while their at it they can return the levy Labor took a hit on to save their arses. Labor can give all savings to NSW and Vic and walk the election in. Simple.

  • 38
    Zorica Sherrington
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 1:01 am | Permalink

    @Sean Tisme – Rudd would be a game changer. It would boost Labor in Qld, but I wonder what it would do to the sisterhood vote for JG? I guess it depends in how it goes down. Also the LNP would have a field day replaying all the clips of senior Labor ministers trashing Rudd and driving trucks through the gaps in unity within the party.

    Case B, steady as she goes, in which case I feel if JG even looks like making it, KR and Crew will no doubt leak a few things to the press as before.

    In his heart of hearts, I wonder if KR would be happier on 14 Sept seeing Gillard win or Abbott win? Loyalty to party versus personal feelings.

  • 39
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 1:06 am | Permalink

    It would be better for Labor and politics in Australia if Labor gets a belting..but the Coalition not get control of the Senate.
    How much further to the right would gillard and her backers drag Australia if they won…it would be unthinkable.

    The factional scum that continues to spit on democracy and the party needs some heavy blood letting.

  • 40
    rummel
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 1:06 am | Permalink

    Case B, steady as she goes, in which case I feel if JG even looks like making it, KR and Crew will no doubt leak a few things to the press as before.

    agree, still cant understand why team gillard have so much hope? Even if Gillard does well, the defeated Labor forces will still resist and leak as pay back. The whole Gillard take over was always going to end in tears.

    In his heart of hearts, I wonder if KR would be happier on 14 Sept seeing Gillard win or Abbott win? Loyalty to party versus personal feelings.

    i dare say he just wants Gillard removed as PM, be it at the hands of caucus or the voters.

  • 41
    rummel
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 1:07 am | Permalink

    good to see you back Thomas. Paine.

  • 42
    briefly
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 1:08 am | Permalink

    36
    Zorica Sherrington

    I do sense that business and consumer confidence should come back a bit with a majority government, but they are both fickle things.

    Why should confidence improve? I don’t know anyone in business that thinks Abbott is up to the job. Literally – no-one. I have plenty of friends in business who are going to vote Labor because they hold grave fears about Abbott – many are die-hard LNP voters, but in Abbott they just see a hopeless misfit. It is households in the broad that have switched off Labor, and they’ve done so for hip pocket reasons: incomes are in trouble. The bubble in the terms of trade peaked two years ago and is deflating steadily.

    Consumer confidence is related to incomes, jobs, interest rates. Incomes have been sagging because of developments in the private economy. Abbott cannot change these, even if, laughably, he says he can. Indeed, even though everyone expects him to win, consumer confidence has been falling very sharply.

  • 43
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 1:10 am | Permalink

    From my point of view, Rudd is the old rocking chair. It can go on the fire too.

    Well we know you already. You are one those who would rather have Abbott, Pol Pot… anybody but Rudd. And not for the good of the party, but out of spite.

  • 44
    Zorica Sherrington
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 1:13 am | Permalink

    @briefly – I didn’t say an Abbott Government, I said a majority Government, which to be fair may well be an Abbott lead Government or a Gillard Government. Minority Gov as we have it doesn’t seem to have filled either business or consumers with glee about the parliament.

  • 45
    briefly
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 1:13 am | Permalink

    39...Thomas. Paine.

    Spoken like a medieval surgeon…bleed the patient till he faints!! And then bleed him some more!

    Don’t worry TP, you will be able to dance in the streets in celebration of the victory you crave. Dance till you topple over, TP, because that’s what lies ahead for the country: a toppling.

  • 46
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 1:13 am | Permalink

    The global economy has been walking a very high ledge for a few years. It is amazing how much you can pump a balloon before it bursts. But when it burst things will happen so fast you will shit yourself. Hence TPTB in Europe and the US will use, abuse and corrupt every financial mechanism they can to keep the game going…and to ensure their backers don’t lose out.

    That the balloon is going to burst has been inevitable for a little while now. Get your shit in order now as you wont have time for it later.

  • 47
    briefly
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 1:15 am | Permalink

    TP, as you know, I was a Ruddocrat too. But he let us down. I’m entitled to my view, as are you.

  • 48
    briefly
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 1:17 am | Permalink

    Zorica…fair point, the fineness of which escaped me.

    I really think events are outside the hands of politicians just at the moment, which is a scary thing to contemplate.

  • 49
    silmaj
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 1:20 am | Permalink

    Was the RBA correct in raising the Int Rates Mid 07. I’ll always remember the Swan announcement of the inflation genie being out of the bottle. I had recently just started watching the world commodities and had seen that(wheat, cotton, rubber , oil, palm oil, coffee , cocoa , every thing required) was in a Pre GFC bubble. Was this an inflation genie of our making?. It became clear that we were raising rates and changing govts in economic terms that did not make sense. So when thinks don’t make sense you save and risk taking is gone. Risk taking sometimes creates revenue for Govt. I wonder if the Govt calculate both sides of the ledger when they try to raise revenue. So is there investment money sitting waiting to be deployed that may create Govt revenue,and maybe a Govt Surplus. I suspect that after sep 15 it will be revealed.

  • 50
    briefly
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 1:28 am | Permalink

    49...silmaj

    This is the bet Hockey has made. He’s declared as much. But it won’t work. Business investment is falling (in all, very quickly); households cannot expand their risk because incomes are falling.

    The really, really huge problem is the unreasonable fear people have of public sector debt. They are utterly phobic about it. This is just silly, and is a consequence of political rhetoric over many, many years. The LNP are going to find they will either have to accept higher debts or create a recession. They have talked themselves into an impossible position. Whatever happens, they will lose public support very quickly.

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