Facebook Google Menu Linkedin lock Pinterest Search Twitter

Advertisement

Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Galaxy follows up Saturday's state poll with federal voting intention results for Queensland, painting the usual grim picture for Labor.

User login status :

Share

GhostWhoVotes reports the Galaxy poll of 800 Queensland respondents which gave us state results on Saturday now brings us federal results, indicating a 59-41 Coalition lead in the state from a swing of about 4%. This compares with a 55-45 result in the last such poll in February, which seemed a little favourable to Labor at the time. On the primary vote, Labor is down five to 28% and the Coalition is steady on 46%.

There has also been Queensland state polling over the weekend from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which you can read all about here.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 34%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48% and 8%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 55-45. Other questions find Joe Hockey leading Wayne Swan as more trusted to handle the economy 37-28, out from 35-32 before the budget; 43% believing Tony Abbott should accept the Gonski reforms against 34% who favour the existing model; 51% saying climate change is caused by humans against 35% opting for normal fluctuation; support on opposition for carbon pricing tied at 43% all, the most favourable result yet recorded; 39% favouring it against 29% for the Liberals’ “direct action” policy (at least with respect to the policies as described in the question); and only 26% believing Tony Abbott will fulfill his promise to remove both the mining and carbon taxes while keeping the carbon tax compensation measures.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up 1.5% to 33.5%, the Coalition steady on 45.5% and the Greens down half a point to 9.5%. Both respondent allocated and previous election two-party preferred measures have shifted from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5, providing further evidence that Morgan’s new methodology has resolved the inexplicable discrepancy between these measures which bedevilled the old face-to-face series (as well as its Labor bias).

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

Get a free trial to post comments
More from William Bowe

Advertisement

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

1883 comments

1,883 thoughts on “Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland

  1. rummel

    Abbott, soon to be PM

  2. davidwh

    It sort of points to the possibility that KAP and PUP are taking more votes from Labor than LNP. A big qualification on this result is that it is inconsistent with the Nielsen state break-up although the Nielsen poll is a much smaller sample.

  3. Sean Tisme

    Gillard is the Gift that keeps Giving

  4. spur212

    From 28% primary vote, that’s 8% primary vote required between now and the election to get to the magic 36% number which is needed in order to win some seats …

    Not going to happen with Gillard/Swan at the helm!

    And if the ALP can’t win seats in Queensland, they’re for lack of a better word, screwed

  5. Gorgeous Dunny

    From the last thread
    William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

    I’m sure they’ll have Dame Edna on shortly.

    Not entirely far-fetched. Dame Edna took her title from having it conferred on her by Gugh at Sydney Airport.

    Philip Adams and whoever else was involved (Bruce Beresford?) had got Gough to agree to a brief cameo in their Bsrry McKenzie film. Meeting the McKenzie people (including Aunt Edna), along with a band and the Rooty Hill Marching Girls.

    I think Gough, ever the ham, improvised the next bit and conferred a Damehood on Edna, She played along with it, with a very grateful bow and cutsey, and has ever since been Dame Edna.

  6. davidwh

    We are likely to see the Rudd effect important in QLD right up to the election. Can’t see QLD saving Labor despite the problems caused by Katter and Palmer. NSW remains the key to the federal election.

  7. spur212

    davidwh

    If the ALP doesn’t win seats in Queensland, what happens in NSW will be immaterial in realtion to the end result

  8. davidwh

    Spur I just can’t see Labor winning many seats in QLD with their current leadership team. Rudd is still the injured party and the Newman effect has faded.

  9. spur212

    davidwh

    Neither can I. It’s not so much that the Newman effect has faded. It’s more that Gillard is back in the spotlight in the state

  10. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Emails for the SA Chapter Queens Birthday Weekend Knees Up were just sent out. If you want to come and don’t get an email, contact me by email address ajaxstamp at hotmail dot com.

  11. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Queensland is a sad case. That is one place which could never govern itself. It should have been made a territory decades ago.

  12. silmaj

    Having lived in SA and now live in Qld I’m not sure that
    Saying qld is a sad case applys

  13. briefly

    [3
    Sean Tisme

    Gillard is the Gift that keeps Giving]

    Not to worry, we know the LNP will completely wreck everything if they do win. For sure, at best a Pyrrhic victory lies ahead them.

    We’ve seen it all before: slovenly incompetence, dim-witted waste, weakness and arrogance for all to enjoy.

  14. Nemspy

    The latest spluttering choke in the most drawn-out death rattle of any Australian government.

  15. briefly

    Labor appears to be getting smacked for the decline in the QLD economy, which so far has been relatively mild. Once the LNP get the chance to wreck the national economy too, the downturn in QLD will seem very mild indeed.

  16. Zorica Sherrington

    Increasingly hard to see where Labor is going to pick up LNP seats to get out of minority government. I wonder if announcing the election date so early was a good move or if it just meant more people than usual have made their choice early.

    It’s seems for Labor to avoid defeat there is going to have to be a new game changer now NDIS, Gonski, IR and the budget have all done the rounds and havent put the ALP in the lead. Not sure what that could be?

  17. briefly

    [1
    rummel

    Abbott, soon to be PM]

    A truly funny idea. The more I think about it, the more astonishing it is.

  18. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Stop gloating, or whinging. This contest is far from over yet.

  19. rummel

    [briefly
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:59 pm | PERMALINK
    1
    rummel

    Abbott, soon to be PM

    A truly funny idea. The more I think about it, the more astonishing it is.]

    Briefly,

    I still dont think most on the left have really thought about it… still hoping it will all just go away.

  20. Nemspy

    [briefly

    We’ve seen it all before: slovenly incompetence, dim-witted waste, weakness and arrogance for all to enjoy]

    Indeed we have! 2007-present!

  21. Nemspy

    [briefly
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    1
    rummel

    Abbott, soon to be PM

    A truly funny idea. The more I think about it, the more astonishing it is.]

    Yep, he’s terrible. So bad that even I, as someone who has voted for the Coalition my entire life, am not going to vote at this election because I can’t stomach voting for Abbott.

    And yet, barring some sort of miracle, Gillard is going to lose in a landslide.

    What does that say about Gillard?

  22. crikey whitey

    Zoomster and Puff

    Excuse me. Sudden influx of visitors.

    Thanks both. Ginger Up! Zoomster, book sounds excellent.

  23. crikey whitey

    Zorica Sherrington

    Fabulous names.

  24. silmaj

    The downturn in the economy is not restricted to Qld.It is everywhere. The people experiencing the downturn will no doubt wonder why,after many years of growth why now. The GFC experience here may have been temporarily delayed or over time actually magnified. Only in a year or two will we know. It takes a long time to slow a competent economy(we weren’t Selling paper bag surprise mortgages) it also takes a long time and different direction to accelerate it again. Is what is being offered at the next election going to solve it? I think not.
    Some new thinking is required. However this Govt will Go No Doubt.

  25. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    GD
    I love your recollections.

  26. crikey whitey

    In a statement released almost immediately after Ms Gillard’s statement, the country’s broadcasters announced that they had accepted her demands.

    “These are unprecedented restrictions for broadcasters but we accept the government has acted in response to community concern,” Free TV chief executive Julie Flynn said.

    The Australian Wagering Council also accepted the proposal, saying it understood there were “community concerns” and it did “not want children talking about gambling odds”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/ofarrell-out-to-trump-pm-on-sports-betting-20130526-2n5e4.html#ixzz2UPOfh9It

  27. Bushfire Bill

    [And yet, barring some sort of miracle, Gillard is going to lose in a landslide.

    What does that say about Gillard?]

    Given the predictions of her doom “any day now” the punditocracy over three years – all of which have been completely wrong – I’d say she doesn’t need a miracle, just business as usual.

  28. Zorica Sherrington

    @bushfire bill

    Business as usual… For the last 3 years JG Labor has been behind in the polls. Tests at the state and territory elections during this time don’t exactly give a lot of hope for the ALP cause either.

    State by state or seat by seat, where are the extra four seats going to come from, plus whatever else is needed to offset any lost to the LNP?

    I can see the LNP path to a majority, Fisher, Lyne and o’Conner, it looks a fair bit easier than Labors path. Where do you see the LNP vulnerability to lose seats to Labor?

  29. mimhoff

    [I still dont think most on the left have really thought about it… still hoping it will all just go away.]

    Let us know when you’ve really thought about it.

  30. briefly

    [16
    Zorica Sherrington

    Increasingly hard to see where Labor is going to pick up LNP seats to get out of minority government. I wonder if announcing the election date so early was a good move or if it just meant more people than usual have made their choice early.

    It’s seems for Labor to avoid defeat there is going to have to be a new game changer now NDIS, Gonski, IR and the budget have all done the rounds and havent put the ALP in the lead. Not sure what that could be?]

    There’s probably nothing to be done. We should all prepare for chaos. The LNP are demonstrably incapable. This is our fate: to be subject to gross misrule by the abjectly unprepared.

    In 2007, during Rudd’s ascendancy, it was pretty clear the US property bubble would break sometime in the following year or two. Sure enough, after property prices peaked in 2005 and then slipped a little for 3 years, the sub-prime crisis triggered a collapse in high-risk lending in 2008, which rapidly relayed contraction through US banking, leading to a decline in the property market of about 35% by 2009.

    The US had a property bubble. But we have four bubbles: our own property market, bulk commodity incomes, the surge of capital into resources and energy and the balloon that is the AUD. The latter three are clearly now deflating. As this process starts to harm household incomes, we should expect the first bubble – property – to also succumb.

    Realistically, unless we get very lucky, very clever or very determined, or all three, we are rooted.

  31. Sean Tisme

    They need to roll Gillard immediately and reinstate PM Rudd if only to save the furniture.