The monthly Victorian poll from ReachTEL shows a solid drop for Denis Napthine's government after last month's honeymoon spike. But Labor's primary vote is down too, and the minor party numbers tell a confusing story.
ReachTEL has published a poll which has been widely interpreted as an end to Denis Napthine’s honeymoon, with the Coalition primary vote down from 49.5% to 43.6% since the poll of last month. However, the poll also has Labor down from 35.3% to 32.5%. It appears that ReachTEL is picking up some static in its others reading, which (combining others with the fairly negligible Katter’s Australian Party vote) has progressed over three months from 6.0% to 3.8% to 10.4%. The balance of the major party decline has been absorbed by the Greens, who go from 11.5% to 13.6%. On my own calculation of two-party preferred based on preferences from the previous election, the Coalition’s lead narrows from 54-46 to 52-48.
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.