The monthly Victorian poll from ReachTEL shows a solid drop for Denis Napthine’s government after last month’s honeymoon spike. But Labor’s primary vote is down too, and the minor party numbers tell a confusing story.
ReachTEL has published a poll which has been widely interpreted as an end to Denis Napthine’s honeymoon, with the Coalition primary vote down from 49.5% to 43.6% since the poll of last month. However, the poll also has Labor down from 35.3% to 32.5%. It appears that ReachTEL is picking up some static in its others reading, which (combining others with the fairly negligible Katter’s Australian Party vote) has progressed over three months from 6.0% to 3.8% to 10.4%. The balance of the major party decline has been absorbed by the Greens, who go from 11.5% to 13.6%. On my own calculation of two-party preferred based on preferences from the previous election, the Coalition’s lead narrows from 54-46 to 52-48.