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Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition

A Galaxy poll conducted on Thursday and Friday evenings has the Coalition's lead at 51-49, with Kevin Rudd leading 51-34 as preferred prime minister.

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David Penberthy on Twitter conveys tomorrow’s Sunday Mail front page, showing a Galaxy poll conducted on Thursday and Friday evenings has the Coalition leading 51-49 (compared with 55-45 in the poll a fortnight ago), with Kevin Rudd holding a 51-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister. More to follow.

UPDATE: I can reveal the poll has Labor’s primary vote up six to 38%, 57% supporting the leadership change, and 52% thinking Bill Shorten personally did the right thing in switching to Rudd against 30% for the wrong thing. Still a few gaps to be filled there of course.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables: Coalition down three to 44%, Greens down one to 10%.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1535 comments

1,535 thoughts on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition

  1. zoidlord

    And there is the closing in!

  2. briefly

    from the previous thread…

    1162
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    1052
    confessions

    The leadership change was supposed to Save The Furniture. Only what’s happening now is that the furniture is deciding to leave of its own volition!

    lol

    I have however spoken to the next Labor Campaign Director for the seat of Perth, who reckons it is winnable if Allanah runs. So maybe an old lamp-stand will be replaced by an antique bookcase.

  3. two bobs worth

    [Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition, Rudd leads 51-34 on PPM]

    Wow!

  4. zoidlord

    Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 36s

    Galaxy’s 51 49 Coalition lead pretty well same as/similar to Reachtel’s, and Morgan’s SMS one.
    Retweeted by ReachTEL

  5. briefly

    [1091
    Fran Barlow

    briefly:

    I think nearly everyone in the country would be relieved if this running sore could be soothed and allowed to heal.

    Because this is basically about our distress at being called upon to relieve the far greater and longer standing distress of others. Persuasive, really.]

    It would be persuasive if it were accurate. But it is not. The Afghans now arriving here by sea have had settled lives in Pakistan or Iran, in some cases since the Soviet war. In other cases those being trafficked here are of Afghan descent but were born in Pakistan or Iran. They now face repatriation and – perhaps understandably – seek to avoid that. While they are certainly being displaced, they are not fleeing persecution. However, because of the operations of the Immigration Act, they are able to obtain “protection” here.

    Are you really trying to argue that people who are not fleeing persecution should be able to obtain settlement here simply because they have the means to pay for their passage?

    There is an alternative, which is to create a legal discretion for the Government to decide when the Convention will apply, and when it will not. So, for example, were there to be strife in PNG, Malaysia, The Solomons, Fiji or Indonesia that led to an exodus, then the principle of “non-return” should apply. But there is no reason this principle should be able to be invoked by persons who are not fleeing persecution.

    We should have a policy of welcoming and settling refugees. But this is not the same thing as running a system that encourages human trafficking.

  6. poroti

    Wow. Will actually be interested in a Newspoll.

  7. two bobs worth

    Gosh it is just so sad that Rudd is a dud isn’t it!

  8. Swing Required

    From the previous thread, this is a perfect result, because I’m sure the campaign will be worth several % to Labor when Abbott and policy are examined.

    If the media are fair dinkum, they’d now be polling Abbott v Turnbull each poll.

    I’m sure the Libs know hat Abbott is a big liability.

  9. confessions

    From the previous thread:

    [I think going late is gaining ground.]

    As it should. This provides sufficient time to settle the horses re the leadership change and prepare the ground for what a re-elected Labor govt would do in its 3rd term.

    As it stands now, voters have been told that the leadership change was solely about winning the election. This is untenable in the medium to longer term, and simply stretches credulity among the thinking voters out there.

    The more time taken to cement the new leadership and frontbench in place, the better for mine.

  10. Boerwar

    I do hope that Mr Abbott loses a night’s sleep on those figures.

  11. poroti

    Is the sound I hear that of heads exploding over at Menzies House ?

  12. confessions

    [I have however spoken to the next Labor Campaign Director for the seat of Perth, who reckons it is winnable if Allanah runs. So maybe an old lamp-stand will be replaced by an antique bookcase.]

    briefly:

    Not fair! I hold MacTiernan in high regard and have long said she would be an asset to a federal Labor Cabinet.

  13. triton

    Any other polls in the field? I thought they all would be. And the next few weeks are crucial. The pressure would come right off Abbott if it drops off.

  14. AJ Canberra

    Fits with the Morgan and ReachTEL polls. May be, given the seeming improvement in Qld, enough to win the election.

    Whether or not it’s going to last until election day is a different question entirely. Unless they are total wimps, the Libs won’t be to worried yet.

  15. briefly

    confessions, I’ve known Allanah nearly all my life and always admired her energy and candour. She will be great if she gets the green light, which is quite likely, I think.

  16. @chrispydog

    N̶a̶r̶r̶o̶w̶i̶n̶g̶ Implosion

  17. Sarah Roberts

    Mark my words

    If Rudd doesn’t deliver to Rupert, then the headlines will read, after devastating “leaks” of course, “Rudd Time-bomb” rather than ‘Rudd Bombshell.’

  18. briefly

    perhaps she is better described as an aging rocker… 🙂

  19. confessions

    [Any other polls in the field?]

    Newspoll was last week, Neilsen the week before IIRC.

  20. Psephos

    [
    I think going late is gaining ground.

    As it should. This provides sufficient time to settle the horses re the leadership change and prepare the ground for what a re-elected Labor govt would do in its 3rd term.]

    It’s also the general view in the ALP that Gillard made a mistake in going early in 2010. So that’s now seen as a precedent to avoid.

  21. two bobs worth

    Boerwar

    You and briefly among others have been vilifying the man since Thursday and now you come up with this:

    [I do hope that Mr Abbott loses a night’s sleep on those figures.]

    You sir have absolutely no shame! You are a fraud.

  22. Psephos

    Melbourne is winning, Rudd is PM – WTF is going on? #afldeesdogs #auspol

  23. confessions

    briefly:

    That is good news.

  24. centaur009

    The libs are totally spooked. That john nugyen candidate for chisolm has already got posters up. They have spent masses already. Rudd comes in bang… his election campaign up in flames!!! 40k chinese. Background voters

  25. Tricot

    Well, so far so good but…………what will it look like a few weeks from now?

    I wonder where the suipport is coming from?

    Not much good getting good polling numbers if there is not a translation into seats.

    It ain’t going to happen in the West. If Labor holds three that will be good. I suppose Hasluck has always been close and might be in play, but a lot more water under the bridge yet.

    At absolute tip-top for Rudd/Labor no more than two extra seats in the West and I just don’t get the feel this is on just yet.

    However, there is a bit or early disappointment with Barnett – lots of money for his workers, cuts and clunky inability to cope in parliament which might just work for Labor as did State Labor NSW worked for the Coalition.

    It’s might be all up for grabs again. But it will in the East where it will be won or lost.

    The object now is to push Abbott and push him hard.

    I don’t think he has the bottle to cope.

    My brief viewing of the Liberal launch in Victoria showed a stilted and dull affair. The jokes fell flat and John Howard look old and past it.

  26. briefly

    [20….two bobs worth]

    I haven’t been vilifying anyone, twb, simply expressing my unease about the Provisional Government. I really hope I am wrong.

  27. jaundiced view

    Fran Barlow
    Psephos is serial liar on asylum seekers. He is a hunter gatherer of racists. I’m surprised anyone would use him, given his intra-factional agenda, as an authority on anything. He has form. I gave the true legal position earlier. If you missed it just ask.

  28. zoidlord

    I will wait to see another couple of polls to see if this is a continued trend.

  29. jaundiced view

    I’m in the going late camp.

  30. confessions

    [The libs are totally spooked. That john nugyen candidate for chisolm has already got posters up. They have spent masses already. Rudd comes in bang… his election campaign up in flames!!! ]

    One does not equal the other.

    Yes the Labor leadership change has caused inconvenience to the Liberal campaign posters and mail outs, which may have been predicated on a Gillard govt. But this does not in and of itself mean that the Liberals are spooked.

    Remember that they would’ve factored in a change in Labor leadership, and it isn’t at all outside the bounds of possibility that, given their financial state, were able to produce two sets of pamphlets/posters/whatever to counter Labor switching leaders.

  31. briefly

    [26
    jaundiced view

    Fran Barlow
    Psephos is serial liar on asylum seekers. He is a hunter gatherer of racists. I’m surprised anyone would use him, given his intra-factional agenda, as an authority on anything. He has form.]

    This is a disgraceful allegation.

  32. Smaug

    The polling is good and hopefully will get better for labor. Having said that trend is the key and because of the change to Rudd the polls for labor are essentially reset. The trend over the next fortnight to 6 weeks will be the true indicator.

  33. briefly

    [3
    two bobs worth

    Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition, Rudd leads 51-34 on PPM]

    If the Provisional Government now starts talking sense on the economy, household incomes, jobs, the currency, infrastructure investment and micro-reform….they can defeat the LNP. But they really must do this. They’ve got one shot at it.

  34. Fil R

    I agree with other posters that while promising, the poll trend would need to be sustained for several weeks before a Labor supporter should be more than hopeful about the party’s chances at the next election.

    F

  35. jaundiced view

    briefly

    It isn’t an allegation.

  36. confessions

    [Psephos is serial liar on asylum seekers. He is a hunter gatherer of racists. ]

    Just when you think you’ve seen the most hysterically over-reached of PB comments, up pops jaundiced view to show us how hysteria is really done.

  37. zoidlord

    @sprocket_/34

    lol, “Comeback Kev”.

  38. Scott

    Ohh this is going to be good. I really hope PM Rudd can pull off a Win. The unfortunate thing, is the 2 Ind’s seats are likely National Gains. But miracles happen!

  39. Tricot

    Actually Confessions, I am, after viewing the Liberal launch in Victoria, not so convinced they have war-gamed the Rudd change all that well to date.

    The Rudd jokes today were clunky and the stand-up comedian barely raised a laugh.

    It did not look like a group of people on a stroll to the Treasury Benches to me. No sense of excitement or barnstorming at all.

    The audience looked to be predominantly old and the young ones did not look all that happy.

    I know fleeting looks are deceptive, but I wonder if the Libs were really as prepared for the change as they have been touted to be?

  40. gloryconsequence

    Now that Rudd can cut through, it’s all about policy.

    Policy. Policy. Policy.

    And smash Abbott in a debate and have him on his knees.

  41. Sarah Roberts

    [two bobs worth
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 8:38 pm | PERMALINK
    Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition, Rudd leads 51-34 on PPM

    Wow!]

    You’d do well to get your running shoes on, because we haven’t much time to win.

    Rudd may be able to parry Rupert for the time being (see the positive headlines, they’re only there for a short time) before they get down to real business.

    Why is the Murdoch Press calling for an election now (apart from feeble Rupert tweets)? Does that cross your mind at all? And why?

    Because Rudd’s promised that Pay-TV will still be a cash-cow for Rupert.

    And that means the laughably Murdoch-labelled “Internet Inventor” Turnbull has had to do his copper wire thing while knowing/investing in the complete opposite is also beholden in some way to Rupert.

    And Turnbull, much as people think he’s some sort of foil to Abbott, will turn a blind eye.

    Rupert will get his hands on the NBN and Australia Network.

    Think about it. Not for yourself. But for your children and grandchildren and theirs.

    You don’t like to acknowledge your involvement in Gillard’s demise, but it was people like you who refused to understand what was at stake here.

  42. AussieAchmed

    I think there are a couple of percentage points in the debate(s).

  43. Gary

    People know Rudd already. I can’t see why the polls will go down greatly if at all. I think TP is right, Rudd has enjoyed a long honeymoon with voters if not with his own party and some Labor supporters. Still best to wait and see.

  44. confessions

    [Oh dear..

    http://twitter.com/alexanderwhite/status/350927051894689792/photo/1 ]

    Interesting that OM commentary is now back to ‘Mr’ this and that as opposed to ‘Julia’ Gillard, not ‘Ms’ Gillard which would be the woman equivalent.

  45. Psephos

    [This is a disgraceful allegation.]

    Ho hum. I always know I’m winning an argument when I’m being abused by the Trots.

  46. briefly

    [36
    jaundiced view

    briefly

    It isn’t an allegation.]

    Then it simply a lie.

  47. Tricot

    By the way who can expound on this offer by Rudd to take Abbott to the G20? What’s behind this?

    I take it Abbott would not go along with it and thus is this Rudd getting inside Abbott’s head?

  48. craigsok

    Wow – Way better bounce than we expected!
    Early days yep but don’t you get a sense that the people are getting behind this. I know most(Coalition supporters included) have been looking for an alternative and now its here. Feels like ’07 all over again – then young are getting behind him – watch the groundswell! If the kid’s think he’s cool many parents will follow – don’t laugh!
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/cool-kevin-brings-out-the-fans-20130629-2p3p9.html

  49. Yesiree Bob

    The Fibs looked like an Oppostion at their confrence today.