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I have joined Mark the Ballot, Pottinger and Kevin Bonham in “implementing a discontinuity”, which in BludgerTrack’s case means re-comencing the model from scratch. Previously the BludgerTrack 2013 series was a single model utilising the full gamut of polling information since the 2010 election to plot out the parties’ fortunes over time. However, to continue would have meant imputing utility to late Gillard polling in determining the present situation, where plainly there is none. The charts on the sidebar represent a continuation of the old model, but it’s only there for show – the results in the tables above them are derived entirely from the polls conducted since last Wednesday (ReachTEL, Galaxy, Newspoll, Essential and Morgan). The sidebar charts will start representing the new regime when there is sufficient data to get a new model rolling which uses the return of Kevin Rudd as its year zero.

I have also started again with my relative state result calculations, as the return of Rudd has changed the game here just as much as with respect to the national result. Here things are particularly dicey at present, as I have only the Morgan SMS poll and ReachTEL breakdowns to go on. This is particularly a problem for Tasmania, so I am continuing to use Gillard era data there to determine the state’s deviation from the national result. This means the calculation continues to be dominated by the 2000+ sample ReachTEL poll of a few weeks ago (remembering that this is used to determine deviation from the national result, so Labor’s two-party result in Tasmania is still improved on last week’s, although the situation on the seat projection hasn’t changed).

Another development is that the announcements by Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott that they will not contest the election has caused me to junk the allocation of five seats as “not projected”. New England and Lyne will henceforth be treated as Nationals seats, while Melbourne, Denison and Kennedy will be credited to the incumbents unless and until published polling emerges which says differently. On a not entirely related note, it’s also interesting to observe that BludgerTrack finds the air going out of the “others” balloon which had been inflating since the start of the year, with disaffected Labor supporters who had been parking their votes somewhere (anywhere) else evidently having returned to the fold.

It’s a shame I can’t be more confident about the state breakdowns, because the results are many different varieties of interesting. Firstly, the dramatic difference between Victoria on the one hand and New South Wales and Queensland on the other has vanished, with Labor recording near double-digit gains in the NRL states but up barely more than a point in Victoria. Secondly, I’ve got four different states where the two-party result is pretty much bang on 50-50. Finally, the projected final seat outcome, which would put Labor in a position to continue governing with the support of Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt from a minority of the two-party preferred vote, further demonstrates the point made by Possum that a substantial advantage accrues to the party which seizes the middle ground in Queensland. So long as Julia Gillard was prime minister, that clearly wasn’t going to be Labor.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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3347 comments

3,347 thoughts on “BludgerTrack 2.0: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition

  1. TP 3298 Julia has too much class to even consider getting the spotlight on such an occasion. She will withdraw quietly and head off to a bigger salary at the UN or similar.

  2. alias@3294

    Who said anything about JG thanking Rudd for anything Henry?

    I suggested that Rudd would have the good grace to invite JG on stage at the election victory.

    So in other words you’re waffling.
    As if JG would appear, are you stoopid?

  3. Henry so you have contradicted yourself at 3252.

    Well done, I was right again, you are the favourite…first into the loony farm.

  4. Over and out, PB land. Tomorrow is another day on the march to victory against Abbott, a man who is already contemplating what he will do after Rudd delivers his victory speech in a mere matter of weeks or months.

  5. Centre@3303

    Henry so you have contradicted yourself at 3252.

    Well done, I was right again, you are the favourite…first into the loony farm.

    Centre you have totally lost the plot, come back tomorrow, sober.

  6. Remember it’s standard practice for any statement from the Leader to wait until a drop in the polls before unequivocally declaring said statement to be a gaffe, fiasco, blunder, and schemozzle.

  7. I am guess Labor will be furiously doing lots of internal polling? That should inform for an early or later poll.

    And I think that such an intense effort will be needed to get Labor’s message out there in such a short space of time that we will be seeing lots of Albo and others.

  8. The government shares responsibility for what occured, but more than that, it now bears the responsibility of taking action. That means accurately identifying all problems and not allowing the opposition or media to ignore a variety of contributing factors with their simplistic, sensation-seeking propositions.

    While we’re giving unsolicited, amateur advice to KR, that’s what he should say :P.

  9. Just one thing I’d like to say to the Rudd haters before I call it a night:

    There were MANY who knew and liked Rudd before he was deposed as leader.

    You shed no tears for them!

    HYPOCRITES!

    But of course all of you, who have never had any association with Rudd whatsoever, can go ahead and make your own judgement calls.

    You should all be ASHAMED!

    Grow Up 😛

  10. Centre, zzZZZzzzzzzzzzZZzzzzzZzzzZZZZzzzz.

    Whether it’s Boerwar or you or Puff or T.P. or even me bringing it up, it’s boring.

  11. Julia has nothing to prove now. She is an icon for many ALP stalwarts. Her legacy is solid and will grow over the years. In legacy terms the last few months have been perfect for her.

    Against the odds, with a hopelessly split Parliament she managed to bring on huge legislative change across many areas that will in time touch all Australians for the better. Vale Julia. Gimme policy substance over what rudd and abbott offer any day.

    And the class of the person in urging the true believers to get behind Rudd at her darkest moment says it all.

    She lost the leadership but won my heart. Rudd he’s won the leadership but five, ten years time I know who will be the Labot hero.

  12. Another fine article by Malcolm Farnsworth here: Where Are The Seats Rudd Needs To Win?

    An excerpt.
    [But look at them more closely, study their history and consider who the incumbent members are. It’s a lot harder than the figures indicate.

    Optimistically, though, all the ALP has to do is hold its 72 seats and win any 4 of the 20 and it’s back in government. A pro-Labor swing of 2% would deliver it 10 seats.

    But this is a government mired in controversy on many fronts and divided over its leadership. Ten weeks out from a scheduled election, it replaced its prime minister with her predecessor. The vanquished have gone quietly – for now – but the ALP is drenched in political blood. Is it realistic to think it can secure a swing towards it?

    And there’s the rub. Even with Rudd, who seriously believes the ALP isn’t going to lose seats? Until last week, we were talking about a dozen in NSW, 5 or 6 in Queensland, at least 3 in Victoria, perhaps 3 in South Australia, 2 in Tasmania and another 2 in Western Australia.

    There is a bounce in the ALP’s step this week, especially amongst those who knew that Gillard had to go and couldn’t understand why it took until the death knock for the Caucus to act.

    But these people must know that it’s all too late. Gillard should have been disposed of last year. The selfishness of Gillard and her supporters threatened an election result which would have reduced the ALP to a smoking ruin. At the last moment, the party regained its professionalism, held its nose and opted for hope over certain death.

    Rudd could win but I can’t see it. His role is to do what we were all talking about a week ago: to save the party from annihilation.

    Rudd’s job is to ensure that the next generation of leaders survives this election. It’s about saving Burke, Clare, Bowen, Husic, Parke, Marles, Champion and others. It’s about keeping an ALP presence in Western Australia and Tasmania. It’s about maintaining the edge in Victoria and holding some ground in Queensland.

    There seems little doubt that the sight of Gillard’s political carcass brought waves of cheers from Australian voters. Equally, however, it’s hard to imagine that the electorate doesn’t also think that this mob now has to be retired.]

  13. The Pain Engine makes an astoundingly stupid post:
    Not sure she would like that. The person who was about to take Labor to a massive thrashing standing next to the guy they had to call on to fix it up.

    Maybe not a good look. Though he could in his speech give praise to her part.

    1. Rudd leaked against her in the 2010 election

    2. Rudd undertakes a THREE YEAR campaign of white anting and destabilisation

    3. Rudd having made statements he would never seek the Leadership again blythely breaks his word, contests the Leadership and is elected Leader by a caucus panicked by the latest Newspoll.

    1 & 2 have brought the govt standing way down and Thomas the Painful Clown thinks that Rudd would firstly invite anyone to share the spotlight of the victory speech? And thinks Julia would accept??

    That is why this blog become unutterably boring? That is why the most productive PM ever got booted?

    What the FUCK?

  14. Posts 3314 and 3315 kinda sums up the short and long term choices and dilemmas us Labor people face. Dance with the devil or hold firm to our principles.

  15. Rossmore@3314

    Julia has nothing to prove now. She is an icon for many ALP stalwarts. Her legacy is solid and will grow over the years. In legacy terms the last few months have been perfect for her.

    Against the odds, with a hopelessly split Parliament she managed to bring on huge legislative change across many areas that will in time touch all Australians for the better. Vale Julia. Gimme policy substance over what rudd and abbott offer any day.

    And the class of the person in urging the true believers to get behind Rudd at her darkest moment says it all.

    She lost the leadership but won my heart. Rudd he’s won the leadership but five, ten years time I know who will be the Labot hero.

    Stifled vomiting.

    This type of adulation is typical of cults.

  16. [I watched Professor Brian Cox’s outing on Wonders of Life tonight.]

    Sorry, but just catching up on posts. That series looks like being great and i am going ot make a point of watching on iView with the offsprung.

    I had a laugh when he seemed to be having a quiet dig at Creationists by explaining in very clear and easy to understand terms how the eye could have evolved. 🙂

  17. [Against the odds, with a hopelessly split Parliament she managed to bring on huge legislative change across many areas that will in time touch all Australians for the better. Vale Julia. Gimme policy substance over what rudd and abbott offer any day.]

    Agreed. Now why does the thought of bemused throwing up give me a warm inner glow….? 🙂

  18. Here’s the money quote from the Farnsworth piece….

    Rudd’s job is to ensure that the next generation of leaders survives this election. It’s about saving Burke, Clare, Bowen, Husic, Parke, Marles, Champion and others. It’s about keeping an ALP presence in Western Australia and Tasmania. It’s about maintaining the edge in Victoria and holding some ground in Queensland.

    Its not about principles, values or any of that crap. Its about power and hanging on to it any cost. Fine if you are into that. But don’t expect me to sign up with a happy grin on my face.

  19. Rossmore@3326

    Here’s the money quote from the Farnsworth piece….

    Rudd’s job is to ensure that the next generation of leaders survives this election. It’s about saving Burke, Clare, Bowen, Husic, Parke, Marles, Champion and others. It’s about keeping an ALP presence in Western Australia and Tasmania. It’s about maintaining the edge in Victoria and holding some ground in Queensland.

    Its not about principles, values or any of that crap. Its about power and hanging on to it any cost. Fine if you are into that. But don’t expect me to sign up with a happy grin on my face.

    So you think the loss of a large number of Labor’s future potential leaders is a good thing?

    OK.

    I actually thought this bit was the best:
    [Gillard should have been disposed of last year. The selfishness of Gillard and her supporters threatened an election result which would have reduced the ALP to a smoking ruin. At the last moment, the party regained its professionalism, held its nose and opted for hope over certain death.]
    and this:
    [There seems little doubt that the sight of Gillard’s political carcass brought waves of cheers from Australian voters. Equally, however, it’s hard to imagine that the electorate doesn’t also think that this mob now has to be retired.]
    They reflect the harsh reality.

  20. On reflection, real social progress is only ever achieved by politician’s of Gillard’s or Keating’s or Whitlam’s substance. They all have left a policy legacy which is I think the best we can hope from our politicians, for ill or good.

    They all eventually fell out with the public but in hindsight were proved right. Perhaps thats the price of progress – politicians prepared to be shot down and humiliated. The lesser politicians seem only focussed on power and maintaining it.

    That’s why I’ll vote AlP at the next election., but with no joy or enthusiasm hopefully among the the ALP candidates there’s somewhere another Whitlam, Keating or Gillard in the making..

  21. Wow, just look at all the jilted Gillard supporters.

    Now I understand where they are coming from.

    If Gillard was to be remembered in a positive way, to have any sort of legacy they most ironically she needed to be dumped are replaced by somebody who could save the party. Else she would have been remember only for the knifing of a 1st term PM then taking Labor to destruction.

    You people should be thanking Rudd for taking on the THANKLESS and near impossible task of leading Labor into an election and staving of a massive thrashing, and keep the Senate away from Abbott.

    But I doubt very much you will thank Rudd for saving Gillard.

  22. Can anyone help solve TP’s 3265?

    T** **lli**** o* u**ng a* * b**a**e *uo **e s* b**t ***t ov** **l*la**s f**l*** is t*t*ll* st***d.

    I’ve got as far as:

    “The silliness of using an * because you are so b**t ***t over Gillard’s failing is totally stupid.”

    It didn’t help that he spelt “you” and “Gillard” wrong, but hey, what would you expect?

  23. But it would have been instructive to leave Gillard in the job and the inevitable and record anihilation that would have come.

    Abbott with Senate and HOR, ditching everything Labor had done the past 6 years and engraving her name in political history as Labor biggest mistake.

  24. Don’t get too triumphalist too early, you boring Pain.

    Rudd is not even ahead in the polling, let alone won the election. Tiny blip up from where Julia was. Julia would have beaten Abbott, Rudd. . .?

  25. TP 3334 thats a pretty near perfect illustration of the emptiness at the heart of the LNP soul. No guts, no passion, no soul, just the relentless pursuit of power at any price. You go my way I’ll go mine.

  26. The NSW intervention doesn’t do it so far – not when these blokes aren’t enthusiastic. All the office bearers and systems stay. From AFR:

    “Asked if the changes would stop the rise to power of a figure like Mr Obeid, long-term internal critic ­Rodney Cavalier said: “The answer is they don’t.”

    “In a telling silence, party elder and NSW senator John Faulkner declined to comment on the changes.”

  27. I think I’ll state the obvious but the socially unacceptable.

    We live in a sad and uncivilized world. And what the polls tell us is how little political outcomes are governed by rational thought. God help us. Us being the human race.

  28. I have had so many phone calls wanting to ask my opinion for these polls, only to be told that if I’m over a certain age I don’t qualify. The last was from News Corp yesterday, but I am over 49 so I don’t qualify. How can these opinion polls claim to be a cross section when the age group isn’t? Turn 50 and you’re irrelevant. .

  29. I am in hospitsl. I had my gallbladder removed. I told the nurses i named my gallstone Tony Aboott. That got a good lsugh. One said she wished the rah TA was that easy to remove.