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Nielsen: 50-50

The first Nielsen poll since the leadership change follows the general trend in finding Labor drawing level with the Coalition after spending a long period in some place lower than the doldrums.

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GhostWhoVotes relates that the first Nielsen poll since the leadership change has Labor bouncing from 57-43 behind to dead level, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (up 10), 44% for the Coalition (down three) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are 51% approve and 43% disapprove, while Tony Abbott is on 41% (down three) and 56% disapprove (up three). Rudd leads as preferred prime minister by 55-41. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables plus leadership attributes results, courtesy as usual of the ghost with the most.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The ever inflexible Essential Research still has the Coalition lead at 52-48, although Labor is up a point on last week to 39% with the Coalition steady on 46% and the Greens down one to 7%. Also featured are personal approval ratings, with Kevin Rudd on 50% approve and 35% disapprove against 39% and 51% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 50-35 as preferred prime minister. There is also very strong support for Kevin Rudd’s notion that party leaders should be chosen by members as well as caucus, with 56% approval and 19% disapproval. A question on the state of the economy finds a sharp deterioration since April, with good down nine points to 36% and poor up four to 30%, with the usual huge disparities according to voting intention. Thirty-eight per cent thought the economy headed in the right direction, up two since July, against 42% for the wrong direction, up three. There is also a question on respondents’ personal involvement in the past week, showing 56% had watched federal politicians on television, 50% discussed federal politics with friends and family, and 43% had seen television advertising by the parties.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Morgan has both Labor and the Coalition up on the primary vote, respectively by half a point to 42% and 1.5% to 41%, with another bad poll showing for the Greens who are down 1.5% to 7%. This causes last week’s attention-grabbing 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred to rein in to 52.5-47.5, but the size of Labor’s lead last week was inflated by a blowout in respondent-allocated preferences which has come down somewhat this week. On the stable measure of two-party preferred using preference flows from the previous election, the change is from 52.5-47.5 to 51.5-48.5. And bless their hearts, they are continuing to provide weekly state breakdowns, which find the position in Queensland returning to a believable situation of parity between the two parties after last week’s blowout of 57-43 to Labor.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2530 comments

2,530 thoughts on “Nielsen: 50-50

  1. @Sean/2499

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/malaysia-solution-backfires-for-government-that-failed-to-do-its-homework-20110831-1jlg4.html

    ”(Even) if the government is successful today in the High Court then that would basically just be an acknowledgement by the court that the minister has the power to make this decision,” he told ABC Radio. ”It won’t be any reflection of whether it’s a good policy or a bad policy or whether it’s a policy that provides protection to refugees.”

  2. [Abbott needs to hire Sean Tisme for his campaign team ;)]

    Even better would be for Mesma to become LOTO and for her to hire ST for her campaign team 🙂 🙂

  3. Little wonder, Henry.

    Burdened as you are.

    Menzies House will offer you counselling on your problem with Nick Xenophon.

    I assume.

    Fantastic employers as they are. To which Sean will attest.

  4. [Yes, his role could be to make Abbott look smart by comparison.]

    You have now utterly lost it bemused. That is far to big an ask.

    Unless of course ST wears his undies on the outside………

  5. crikey whitey@2510

    Little wonder, Henry.

    Burdened as you are.

    Menzies House will offer you counselling on your problem with Nick Xenophon.

    I assume.

    Fantastic employers as they are. To which Sean will attest.

    Xeno kind of freaked me out on Kitchen Cabinet with Crabby. Odd that no one, ever, has seen his house. Not staffers, not colleagues, no one. Poor old Annabelle had to do the kitchen stuff from his office. Very strange.
    Kind of freaky.

  6. imacca@2512


    Yes, his role could be to make Abbott look smart by comparison.


    You have now utterly lost it bemused. That is far to big an ask.

    Unless of course ST wears his undies on the outside………

    Hmmmm so you reckon ST is dumber than his leader?

    I’m not so sure. 👿

  7. Thought you were on the plane, Henry.

    Nick may freak you out.

    That is why I suggest counselling.

    If you want to be even more freaked, he lives on his own, protects his privacy, keeps his garden, keeps animals in the old tradition, drives a non government car.

  8. Henry. Xeno. Crabby. Poor old. Freaky.

    How very ancient you are.

    Easy boy, private school. Perfect IPA material.

    Guess you are aspiring.

    Probably won’t get very far, judging by performance.

  9. Hi Crikey Whitey
    Exhausted after taking my eldest grandson on a day on the buses here in Edinburgh

    BTW Just scrolled through and see Bemused is up to about 30 to 35% of the comments now :grin:. More or less the same theme all the time!

  10. MARI!

    Hello (and Hello Izatzo?)

    I fell asleep in front of the computer. Bad gel.

    Just awoke. Didn’t know Bemused got a % allocation!

    Pleased to hear you are tramping the streets with grandson. Bet he loves to see you. And VV.

    I read your posts but seemed timing was out.

  11. Mari.

    It’s a little like the olden days. I was touched with nostalgia at the news (by pigeon) of the last day in India, of the Telegram.

    Many will recall the special need for the telegram.

    It was touching to see a grandparent lining up with his grandson beside him, to send that very boy a telegram, so that as he said, his grandson will look at it in many years time, and remember him.

  12. Crikey Whitey
    Hi to you sorry went and did something else
    Hope all is well with you. Bemused is up to about he was posting, before events caught up with him which was a far bit. anyway that is what I meant.

  13. Anyway, you will have gathered that it is PANDEMONIUM and CHAOS here, in the Land of Woz.

    Luckily, on the other side.

    How fortunate that it is on the other side.

    I enjoyed being contemptuously pleased with KRudd as he scythed his way through the press throng.

  14. Labor mate gets Obeid blessing in the seat of Kingsford Smith to replace Peter Garrett:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/alp-candidate-rejects-obeids-endorsement-20130716-2q29f.html

    [Labor exile Eddie Obeid has thrown his support behind Matt Thistlethwaite in the battle to replace outgoing minister Peter Garrett in the seat of Kingsford Smith.
    Mr Obeid, who is waiting on a decision in his hearing at the Independent Commission Against Corruption, said Senator Thistlethwaite had a stronger claim to the eastern beaches seat than his opponent, Tony Bowen.]