tip off

Nielsen: 50-50

The first Nielsen poll since the leadership change follows the general trend in finding Labor drawing level with the Coalition after spending a long period in some place lower than the doldrums.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the first Nielsen poll since the leadership change has Labor bouncing from 57-43 behind to dead level, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (up 10), 44% for the Coalition (down three) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are 51% approve and 43% disapprove, while Tony Abbott is on 41% (down three) and 56% disapprove (up three). Rudd leads as preferred prime minister by 55-41. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables plus leadership attributes results, courtesy as usual of the ghost with the most.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The ever inflexible Essential Research still has the Coalition lead at 52-48, although Labor is up a point on last week to 39% with the Coalition steady on 46% and the Greens down one to 7%. Also featured are personal approval ratings, with Kevin Rudd on 50% approve and 35% disapprove against 39% and 51% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 50-35 as preferred prime minister. There is also very strong support for Kevin Rudd’s notion that party leaders should be chosen by members as well as caucus, with 56% approval and 19% disapproval. A question on the state of the economy finds a sharp deterioration since April, with good down nine points to 36% and poor up four to 30%, with the usual huge disparities according to voting intention. Thirty-eight per cent thought the economy headed in the right direction, up two since July, against 42% for the wrong direction, up three. There is also a question on respondents’ personal involvement in the past week, showing 56% had watched federal politicians on television, 50% discussed federal politics with friends and family, and 43% had seen television advertising by the parties.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Morgan has both Labor and the Coalition up on the primary vote, respectively by half a point to 42% and 1.5% to 41%, with another bad poll showing for the Greens who are down 1.5% to 7%. This causes last week’s attention-grabbing 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred to rein in to 52.5-47.5, but the size of Labor’s lead last week was inflated by a blowout in respondent-allocated preferences which has come down somewhat this week. On the stable measure of two-party preferred using preference flows from the previous election, the change is from 52.5-47.5 to 51.5-48.5. And bless their hearts, they are continuing to provide weekly state breakdowns, which find the position in Queensland returning to a believable situation of parity between the two parties after last week’s blowout of 57-43 to Labor.

2530
  • 51
    my say
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    gg
    what a sour grape comment

    u would know very well that the poll would of been at the end stage,

    why do u persist with your sour grapes u are nearly on your own with this now

    and such a well educated person and a labor member

    will you be turning in your member ship soon

    sour lemons don’t suit you or the occassion

  • 52
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    Wonderful doco on Tony Greig on gem right now.

  • 53
    geoffrey
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    alp +11 in SA and +7 in WA – in common parlance stunning. in two weeks.

  • 54
    my say
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    50/50 keeps tone just where we want him

    wondering

  • 55
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    You can watch footprints on iView.

  • 56
    geoffrey
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    Psephos
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 10:50 pm | PERMALINK
    I’m now a third of the way through doing the detailed results of the Pakistani elections. With 272 seats, and about 20 candidates per seat, it’s a lot of tabulating.

    amazing

  • 57
    Silky38
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    Lovely set of numbers that.

  • 58
    geoffrey
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    confessions

    yes i know – up instantly after screening. public money well spent. program is too ethnocentric, not enough analytic answers, and some assumptions such as boat travel to continent first time are highly controversial. but great visuals of some important sites.

  • 59
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    geoffrey,

    Do you reckon it’s the dead at shot out of a cannon bounce?

  • 60
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    “@mikebairdMP: Ok @barryofarrell can we call a public holiday if we get these 20 runs or do we lobby @KRuddMP? Love the fight whatever the result #Ashes”

  • 61
    geoffrey
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    tony has a limited vocabulary and has trouble pronouncing the 200 abstract words he does know.

  • 62
    Player One
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Let the ALP self-implode, push them to beg Kevin to return, make them look smug and incompetent with old-Kevin ads and then bring Turbull back to finish them off.

    Yes, I wondered the same thing. However, read Andrew Elder’s blog – he simply doesn’t believe the LNP are smart enough to have come up with this as a strategy!

  • 63
    geoffrey
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    semantically deprived

  • 64
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    The Test continues to be a great metaphor for our election.

  • 65
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    @austlii: Full transcripts of High Court argument in Tasmanian Dams (1983) and Mabo (1991) now in AustLII’s HCA Transcripts – http://t.co/FN0zNYCpBU

  • 66
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    Tony Greig and Bill Lawry were such better commentators than this English crowd.

  • 67
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord re:British Conservatives failing in plain packaging

    “Tories don’t have balls.”

    They do so! Go to any Philip Morris executive, they’ll open the office humidor and show you!

  • 68
    geoffrey
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    GG more a homecoming

  • 69
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    btw lo fucking l at the people claiming Abbott’s dire unpopularity is all just part of the Liberal Campaign plot to reTurnbull.

    Yeah, right. And the ALP kept Julia in for so long because she’d make Kevin look good.

  • 70
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    Meanwhile, if you have nothing better to do, you can read my speech on the 30th anniversary of the Victorian AIDS Council.
    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/speech

  • 71
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    And the ALP kept Julia in for so long because she’d make Kevin look good.

    She certainly did!

  • 72
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    ML:

    I am enjoying the absence of live betting odds, cross program promotions and sponsors ads ad nauseum.

  • 73
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    Does the English coverage not have ad breaks?

  • 74
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    And the ALP kept Julia in for so long because she’d make Kevin look good.]

    NOt to me.

  • 75
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    I assume the English coverage has ad breaks. But we are spared endless adverts for KFC etc.

  • 76
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    16 to go

  • 77
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    Handunnettige Deepthi Priyantha Kumar Dharmasena makes the correct decision!

  • 78
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    15

  • 79
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    And when they show shots of the crowd, they’re not all of young, blonde women like they are with Ch9.

  • 80
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    Oh God, not one of these decisions is it?

  • 81
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    I think he’s out.

  • 82
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    arghhh

  • 83
    geoffrey
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    no cricket. night

  • 84
    Rossmore
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Well there u go

  • 85
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Terrible way for the match to end.

    Such a shame!!

  • 86
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Well done Haddin, though. And young Ash.

  • 87
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Where was snicko?

  • 88
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    Night

  • 89
    Rossmore
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    On balance, deserved

  • 90
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    Yes, goodnight from me too.

  • 91
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    So who won ?

  • 92
    Rossmore
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    mL snicko belatedly confirmed the edge…

  • 93
    crikey whitey
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    First Footprint is stunning.

    The sheer emotion of the woman recalling her grand parent.

    His place, her time, overwhelming.

  • 94
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    Greens leader Christine Milne flags opposing Rudd carbon move

    Well I think this is actually a positive for Rudd Labor as it makes it seem like they are really doing something significant and tough.

  • 95
    James J
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll – SA State April/June

    56-44 2PP

    ALP 32, Lib 44, Nat 1, Greens 10

    Weatherill: Satisified 47, Dissatisfied 35
    Marshall: Satisified 41, Dissatisfied 20

    Better Premier: Weatherill 41, Marshall 30

  • 96
    Rossmore
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    As a Pom, that was sweet. Had 20 years of hostile aggression over The Ashes, boot’s on the other foot, so to speak now. Barracking rights I think it’s referred to

  • 97
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    Rudd has done a great job muddying the Coalitions dog whistle boat non-policy, creating some doubt, confusion and forcing them to become even more risky.

    Still needs a second line of attack to knock them off balance again at some point.

  • 98
    Evan Parsons
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    Federal Labor needs to push the primary vote up into the low to mid 40s, if they are to win the election.

  • 99
    Evan Parsons
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    Thomas Paine: the ABC said tonight that there will be a policy announcement on asylum seekers in the coming week.

  • 100
    ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    [Meanwhile, if you have nothing better to do, you can read my speech on the 30th anniversary of the Victorian AIDS Council.
    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/speech
    German translation please.

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...