tip off

Nielsen: 50-50

The first Nielsen poll since the leadership change follows the general trend in finding Labor drawing level with the Coalition after spending a long period in some place lower than the doldrums.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the first Nielsen poll since the leadership change has Labor bouncing from 57-43 behind to dead level, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (up 10), 44% for the Coalition (down three) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are 51% approve and 43% disapprove, while Tony Abbott is on 41% (down three) and 56% disapprove (up three). Rudd leads as preferred prime minister by 55-41. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables plus leadership attributes results, courtesy as usual of the ghost with the most.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The ever inflexible Essential Research still has the Coalition lead at 52-48, although Labor is up a point on last week to 39% with the Coalition steady on 46% and the Greens down one to 7%. Also featured are personal approval ratings, with Kevin Rudd on 50% approve and 35% disapprove against 39% and 51% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 50-35 as preferred prime minister. There is also very strong support for Kevin Rudd’s notion that party leaders should be chosen by members as well as caucus, with 56% approval and 19% disapproval. A question on the state of the economy finds a sharp deterioration since April, with good down nine points to 36% and poor up four to 30%, with the usual huge disparities according to voting intention. Thirty-eight per cent thought the economy headed in the right direction, up two since July, against 42% for the wrong direction, up three. There is also a question on respondents’ personal involvement in the past week, showing 56% had watched federal politicians on television, 50% discussed federal politics with friends and family, and 43% had seen television advertising by the parties.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Morgan has both Labor and the Coalition up on the primary vote, respectively by half a point to 42% and 1.5% to 41%, with another bad poll showing for the Greens who are down 1.5% to 7%. This causes last week’s attention-grabbing 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred to rein in to 52.5-47.5, but the size of Labor’s lead last week was inflated by a blowout in respondent-allocated preferences which has come down somewhat this week. On the stable measure of two-party preferred using preference flows from the previous election, the change is from 52.5-47.5 to 51.5-48.5. And bless their hearts, they are continuing to provide weekly state breakdowns, which find the position in Queensland returning to a believable situation of parity between the two parties after last week’s blowout of 57-43 to Labor.

2530
  • 101
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    Federal Labor needs to push the primary vote up into the low to mid 40s, if they are to win the election.

    No they don’t.

  • 102
    crikey whitey
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    ‘Rudd has done a great job muddying’

    All too unedifying. I hate boxing,anyway.

    Seems to have worked, though.

    Offer your coaching to Biffo.

  • 103
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    I believe Rudd will declare the republic tomorrow morning and then call the election, running on a bash-the-Poms platform. Will win all seats except a few on the Costa Inglese in WA.

  • 104
    crikey whitey
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    geoffrey 53

    Where did you get that?

    alp +11 in SA and +7 in WA – in common parlance stunning. in two weeks.

  • 105
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    @James/95

    To Labor or to Liberal?

  • 106
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    @Crikey/104

    Last newspoll

    https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes

  • 107
    James J
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    105: Sorry, to Liberal

  • 108
    briefly
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    [Meanwhile, if you have nothing better to do, you can read my speech on the 30th anniversary of the Victorian AIDS Council.
    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/speech

    Great speech, Psephos. Very well done and beautifully observed!!

  • 109
    crikey whitey
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

    Zoidlord. Thanks.

  • 110
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

    Psephos’s speech is indeed a very interesting read.

  • 111
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    New thread.

  • 112
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    Whoops – I meant to say, that’s a link to my SA Newspoll thread. This is still “the thread”.

  • 113
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:56 pm | Permalink

    So why is there a difference between Federal Newspoll Poll and State Poll for SA?

    Local issues?

  • 114
    crikey whitey
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    Oh. Thought so.

  • 115
    sohar
    Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Fine speech, Psephos. You must be proud of what you have helped achieve.

  • 116
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    So why is there a difference between Federal Newspoll Poll and State Poll for SA?

    Local issues?

    The state government’s been in for 12 years now. People are starting to look for something new.

  • 117
    sohar
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    Not sure how they arrived at 56/44 to Libs in South Oz, based on the primary votes – 54/55 for Libs more like it.

  • 118
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    This is a Rudd sugar hit… we will soon remember Kevin of old and cracks are starting to appear already.

  • 119
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:06 am | Permalink

    So why is there a difference between Federal Newspoll Poll and State Poll for SA?

    Local issues?

    Labor = Toxic

    Rudd = Anti-Labor, therefore popular

    Simple really. Don’t forget the factional girl Gillard was at 43% on TPP

  • 120
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    @Sean

    I don’t care for your internal rantings.

  • 121
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    zoidlord,

    It’s commonsense really if you are willing to open your mind.

    Rudd is seen as the Anti-Labor. He knifed Gillard. He axed the union bagmen. He’s knifed almost the entire front bench.

    Labors been toxic for years the only reason Rudd is so popular is he’s eliminated more Labor pollies in 3 weeks than the Coalition has done in 10 years!

  • 122
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:12 am | Permalink

    Very interesting speech. The different roles of Neil Blewitt and Bruce Shepherd in the public health response was very telling.

  • 123
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:12 am | Permalink

    So why is there a difference between Federal Newspoll Poll and State Poll for SA?

    Local issues?

    People hate Abbott.

  • 124
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    Psephos.

    Wow!

    Wonderfully expressed.

    I will pass it on to my gay nephew and his partner.

  • 125
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:15 am | Permalink

    @Sean/121

    Considering that I do have open mind, I don’t need to open it for your side, I know now that SA Labor been in for 12 years, that I didn’t know.

  • 126
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:16 am | Permalink

    The SA state government is polling badly, while the numbers are still quite healthy, for the same reason it was so in 2010 in SA and Victoria.

    Unless there is anger against a government of one level, voters can distinguish between them and say “I have had enough of government X, but I will give government Y another go” – even if they are of the same party.

    When there is anger, of course, that goes out the window and it becomes “Party X is so bad, I will note vote for them at all!”

  • 127
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:21 am | Permalink

    while the numbers are still quite healthy,

    that should read “federal numbers”

  • 128
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:25 am | Permalink

    Psephos,

    Nice piece.

    Another feature of those times was that Government’s were actively moving away from Institutionalisation as the social solution for problems such as Mental Health, Diseases and physical impairments.

    So the fact that your group took such an active role in identifying the issues, advocating the action required and implementing the preferrred solution put you in tune with the prevailing political ethos of the time (notwithstanding the attitudes of the various throwbacks in the medical fraternity and broader society).

    I’ve also read that “the cure” might also be with “mother nature”. Like most viruses that we all deal with they seem to weaken over time due to atural resistance building in the population.

  • 129
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:26 am | Permalink

    Carey Moore.

    I understand that we are and possibly remain angry at the former leadership of SA Govt.

    It would be wondrous to see, however, that the Libs have anything to offer.

    Have not yet encountered even a pamphlet.

    Yet alone a person.

  • 130
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:28 am | Permalink

    @Carey/126

    Agreed, I guess that could happen in QLD as well.

  • 131
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:29 am | Permalink

    I should I say did happen in qld @ 130.

  • 132
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:31 am | Permalink

    BTW

    Carey Moore.

    30 July, Seacliff Yacht Club.

    Tim Costello in attendance.

    Turn up, if you would.

  • 133
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:33 am | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m

    #Nielsen Poll NSW Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 50 (+11) L/NP 50 (-11) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m

    #Nielsen Poll VIC Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 51 (0) L/NP 49 (0) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m

    #Nielsen Poll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 49 (+12) L/NP 51 (-12) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m

    #Nielsen Poll SA Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 (+12) L/NP 48 (-12) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

    #Nielsen Poll WA Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 (+2) L/NP 52 (-2) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 52s

    The #Nielsen Poll tables: http://bit.ly/18W2JRr #auspol

  • 134
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:33 am | Permalink

    The Nielsen Poll tables:

    http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/nielsen-130715.png

  • 135
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:33 am | Permalink

    Nielsen tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

  • 136
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:37 am | Permalink

    I’ve also read that “the cure” might also be with “mother nature”. Like most viruses that we all deal with they seem to weaken over time due to atural resistance building in the population.

    WTF?

    What about vaccination and immunisation!?

  • 137
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:39 am | Permalink

    The Libs seem to have a major problem with women and young people under 40.

    I’m not sure Abbott has any ammunition to fire that would turn around those perceptions.

  • 138
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:39 am | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 51s

    The #Nielsen Poll Leader Attributes tables: http://bit.ly/13gDi4p #auspol

  • 139
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:39 am | Permalink

    [The Nielsen Poll tables:

    http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/nielsen-130715.png
    14% for Greens in SA seems to be absurdly high.

  • 140
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:42 am | Permalink

    Well this sums up why the Coalition are running attack ads against Rudd!
    http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/nielsen-130715-leaders.png

    My favourite is this:

    Has firm grasp of foreign policy?

    Rudd 73: Abbott:39

  • 141
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:43 am | Permalink

    Rudd leads by 10% on “grasp of economic policy”.

    That’s the election right there.

    If Rudd convinces electorate he has better economic ideas Labor will win.

  • 142
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:44 am | Permalink

    Showsy,

    Psephos covered off those options by talking about a cure in the next decade.

  • 143
    briefly
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:44 am | Permalink

    Applying the State x State scores reported by Nielsen, Labor win with 79 seats (80 if Melbourne returns from the Greens).

  • 144
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:45 am | Permalink

    Showsy,

    Psephos covered off those options by talking about a cure in the next decade.

    Well it sure as hell ain’t gonna cure itself.

  • 145
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:45 am | Permalink

    140

    Not hard. Rudd has a history in foreign policy and famously speaks Mandarin. Abbott, not so much.

  • 146
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:46 am | Permalink

    My favourite is this:

    Has firm grasp of foreign policy?

    Rudd 73: Abbott:39

    He’s certainly got more travel experience thats for sure.

    The Prime Ministerial jet will be burning Carbon Credits like there is no tomorrow if Rudd wins government again.

  • 147
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:46 am | Permalink

    Applying the State x State scores reported by Nielsen, Labor win with 79 seats (80 if Melbourne returns from the Greens).

    We have a ball game on our hands.

    Can Rudd overcome the unpopularity of his party?
    Can the Liberals overcome the unpopularity of their leader?

  • 148
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:46 am | Permalink

    Tom,

    It’s mostly Grapes of wrath from Abbott.

  • 149
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:49 am | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m

    #Nielsen Poll SA Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 (+12) L/NP 48 (-12) #auspol

  • 150
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Monday, July 15, 2013 at 12:49 am | Permalink

    Love those 22 and 24 point changes. incredible really.

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