tip off

BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

Despite some movement on the primary vote, a third week of post-Ruddstoration polling finds the parties remain at dead level on two-party preferred.

Three weeks after I hit reset on BludgerTrack (a fact now represented on the sidebar charts, in which the Gillard and Rudd epochs as separate series), the results remain sensitive to weekly variation as the overall pool of data is still very shallow (eleven polls in all). This week we have had Nielsen’s monthly result, the poll which appeared last week from newcomers AMR Research, and the usual weekly Essential and Morgan. The state relativities have been updated with last week’s result of federal voting intention in Queensland from ReachTEL, along with breakdowns from Nielsen and Morgan (the latter of which pleasingly looks to have become a regular feature).

What this all adds up to is a move this week from minor to major parties, one consequence of which is that the Greens have recorded what by some distance is their worst result since BludgerTrack opened for business in November. This may well portend a further decline born of the leadership change and the tightening focus on the major party contest, but I would want more evidence before I signed on to that with confidence. It’s certainly clear that the return of Rudd has been bad news for the combined non-major party vote, but the scale of it is a bit up in the air at the moment. So far as this week’s result is concerned, the shift has enabled Labor to both handily break through the 40% primary vote barrier while going backwards slightly on two-party preferred, on which the Coalition recovers the narrowest of leads.

Tellingly, despite two-party preferred being a mirror image of the 2010 election result, the seat projection still points to a continuation of Labor in office, albeit that it would rely on Andrew Wilkie (whom ReachTEL suggested to be on track for victory in its Denison poll last month) and Adam Bandt (who will continue to be designated as the member for Melbourne until polling evidence emerges to suggest he will lose, which will by no means surprise me if happens) to shore it up in parliament. This points to the crucial importance of Queensland, where there are no fewer than nine LNP seats on margins of less than 5%. So long as the swing in that state remains where BludgerTrack has it at present, Labor could well be in business.

However, as Kevin Bonham notes, there is an obstacle facing Labor on any pathway to victory that runs through Queensland: eight of the nine marginals will be subject to the effects of “sophomore surge”, in which members facing re-election for the first time enjoy a small fillip by virtue of acquiring the personal vote which is usually due to an incumbent. In seven of the nine cases this comes down to the LNP members having won their seats from Labor last time, although Leichhardt and Bonner are a little more complicated in that the members had held them at earlier times. The other two LNP marginals are the Townsville seat of Herbert, which stayed in the LNP fold in 2010 upon the retirement of the sitting member, and Fisher, which as Kevin Bonham notes is a “fake marginal” and an unlikely Labor gain.

The BludgerTrack model has sophomore surge effects covered, with adjustments of between 0.4% and 1.9% applied according to whether the seat is metropolitan or regional (the latter being more susceptible to candidate effects generally) or has what Bonham calls the “double sophomore” effect, in which the challenging party also loses the personal vote of its defeated member from the previous election. Other factors used in the model to project a seat’s result are the existing margin, the statewide swing as determined by the poll trend, and a weighting to account for an electorate’s tendency to swing historically. These results are then used to calculate a probability of the seat being won by Labor, and the sum of the various seats’ probability scores determines the statewide seat total shown on the sidebar. Sophomore surge effects are currently reducing Labor’s Queensland total by about 1.3 seats, which means they will be down one seat for about two-thirds of the time, and down two seats for the remainder.

Finally, sharp-eyed observers may note that the projection has Labor down a seat in New South Wales, by the narrowest of margins, despite a small swing in their favour on the two-party preferred. The loss of sitting members in three loseable seats (Dobell, Kingsford Smith and Barton) is playing a part here, but it also represents the fact that the model rates Labor as having been slightly lucky to have won a twenty-sixth seat there at the last election.

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  • 101
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:11 am | Permalink

    Oh, I will go in and get my name crossed off. If I can’t find a candidate with integrity, I will not be filling in the boxes but will be writing a little note saying that until the parties return to a modest level of integrity, I will not be supporting either.

    We citizens do have an obligation: it is to look after our democracy, not to be complicit in its degradation and destruction.

  • 102
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:12 am | Permalink

    We have “compulsory voting” for a reason. While BW can decide to vote informal he should not advocate others do so. Just a statement that he is choosing to vote informal is fine.

    The way I see it voluntary voting as shown by the US entrenches the culture that leads to despicable leaders like President GW Bush

  • 103
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    g

    If others can advocate voting for spivs, I should be able to advocate not voting for them.

  • 104
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:15 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Iagree with your #102.
    Wasn’t there a “student” in Melbourne who got into trouble for encouraging informal votes? Albert someone?

  • 105
    triton
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    Boerwar, to clarify: I meant that I don’t get why you don’t mind getting PM Abbott more than PM Rudd, as much as you despise PM Rudd. We are going to get one or the other, so you might as well choose the least worse scoundrel. And if you really consider them equal scoundrels, you can vote on policy/philosophy differences or front-bench capabilities or personalities or whatever. God, there’s a thousand reasons not to let the Libs run the country with Abbott at the helm.

  • 106
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    bw

    That was why I put it that you are choosing to vote informal. For the reasons you give. However you either support compulsory voting or you do not.

  • 107
    Dee
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    I was unfortunate enough to hear Alan Jones whilst surfing the radio.

    ‘Rudd is going to get absolutely flogged at the election’

    Hold onto your hats!
    I see the mother of all negative campaigns on the way.
    Let’s be realistic, they work!

    btw, Why is it that the right wing media hacks/shock jocks and ministers scowl and spit venom with such ease.
    Is it some sort of prerequisite for the job???
    Even when talking about rather mundane topics they generally display a rather nasty tone.

  • 108
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    I like this :)

    Nick Seymour ‏@nickseemore 31m
    Just how old is the Earth? Let's ask the professionals: pic.twitter.com/QE2podYlEQ

  • 109
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: Oppn Leader @TonyAbbottMHR spoke in Mackay a short while ago. We’ll bring it to you now: http://t.co/TtTI3ZYXOH #auspol”

  • 110
    triton
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    The way I see it voluntary voting as shown by the US entrenches the culture that leads to despicable leaders like President GW Bush

    Maybe, but who says that’s bad? You don’t like it and I don’t like it, but that was the result of two of their elections at which citizens could choose to vote or not. If they didn’t want Bush, they should have turned up and voted for Gore or Kerry.

  • 111
    adrian
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    ‘adrian
    Every had your boss reduce to tears?’

    Well I am the boss, but I have never reduced anyone to tears thankfully.

    However I have seen people reduced to tears on the flimsiest of pretexts, so I don’t think it proves anything one way or another.

  • 112
    political animal
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    I agree with BW except I will not go and get my name crossed off.

  • 113
    OzPol Tragic
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    The Geebubg (Briz) fossils go international (Guardian Science). Brisbane fossil find may provide missing link in animal evolution Fossils of crocodiles, fish and plants thought to be 50m years old were found by overpass workers in a layer of oil shale

    Interesting, esp since Ipswich area coalfields yielded a plethora of plant fossils in the mud stone; but to my knowledge, nothing past that time; probably dating the first volcanic eruption in the Great Divide: Main Range section.

    A similar fossil record seems to emerge in the Western side of the Main Range’s Surat Basin inc photo of typical fern fossil (Jurassic to Cretaceous eras).

    QLD (Briz) Museum will be thrilled. So will Brisbanites, like me, who fell in love, at a very young age, with its huge reconstructed Muttaburrasaurus langdoni skeleton. When it was shifted from the old Museum on the North side to the new one on the south, the whole route was packed with people.

    I can’t recall whether the Museum’s other internationally significant treasures accompanied it, or were shifted separately. I know Mephisto’s trip was a crowd-pleaser Mephisto_(tank)”>a unique German A7V tank; sole survivor of the mere 20 originally built (with a good pic of the two steamrollers dragging it from the wharf to the old building on the corner of, I think, Bowen Bridge Rd)

    I’m not too sure about these fragile treasures Bert Hinklers’ Avro Baby G- EACQ & Avro Avian G-EBOV

    BTW: Two more Hinkler planes, the Ibis and PUSS-MOTH CF-APK are in Bundaberg’s Hinkler Hall of Aviation, next to his house, now a museum.

  • 114
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    Triton

    That happens because the parties cater to extremes. We see it at every primary before the General elections. This is why the Tea Party rules the GOP.

    Compulsory voting forces the parties to the centre. This is why we saw Abbott act against Pauline Hanson and One Nation. Abbott not exactly being of the centre himself

  • 115
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    lizzie@104

    guytaur

    Iagree with your #102.
    Wasn’t there a “student” in Melbourne who got into trouble for encouraging informal votes? Albert someone?

    Albert Langer. A colourful character but I think well past his student days by the time he advocated a vote that assigned the major parties equal last.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Langer

  • 116
    pom
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    It’s taken me to the last few days to get over the sudden change of leadership. I never thought it would happen before the election. In the end I realize it’s the party not the personalities that I support.
    Still, at the end of the day JG was the best person to get the job done in a minority parliament and as things settle down she will be remembered well for moving the nation forward.
    King Kev is doing a good job for the party and looks as if we are in with a big chance.
    TA will only keep on digging that hole, I am sure that labor will only be more than willing to make sure he never runs out of spades.

  • 117
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    Dee

    ‘btw, Why is it that the right wing media hacks/shock jocks and ministers scowl and spit venom with such ease.’

    Because they lack honesty, integrity and respect for others?

  • 118
    davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:32 am | Permalink

    Boerwar #91 I do understand your dilemma however I feel you have to pick one and hope the other one will clean up their act sufficiently over the next three years in opposition so they can provide an acceptable alternative government in 2016.

    I don’t think there is much between the two alternatives this time now but you have to choose one over the other. I really don’t want to choose either but I will on the day.

  • 119
    triton
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    guytaur, you are implying that extreme = bad, centre = good, but those are not objective judgements. They are subjective judgements of yours. U.S. voters can decide that extreme is bad and centre is good by showing up and voting for centrist candidates in their primaries and elsewhere. It’s their choice.

  • 120
    adrian
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    ‘I don’t think there is much between the two alternatives this time now but you have to choose one over the other.’

    Then you obviously haven’t been paying attention. Or you have been paying attention and you lack the er.. comprehension to see the differences.

    BTW, where’s the integrity in voting informal?

  • 121
    adrian
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    I guess anyone who advocates voting informal because both leaders lack ‘integrity’, also believe their sitting (or otherwise) members and the entire front bench also lack this magical ingredient.

    After all, we keep being told this is not a presidential system.

  • 122
    triton
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    adrian, what does integrity have to do with voting informally?

  • 123
    adrian
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:39 am | Permalink

    Because the apparent lack of it seems to be the justification used by some to vote that way.

  • 124
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:39 am | Permalink

    Abbott telling everyone he has travelled highways…how much did it cost taxpayers in travel allowances??

  • 125
    OzPol Tragic
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    Many decades ago, when postwar migration flooded Oz with people who came from countries where voting was not compulsory – and before Cultural Cringe and well before Political correctness – the following (yes, now very cringe-worthy) were ubiquitous responses to voting informal: (earlier) Be subnormal; vote informal; later Be abnormal; vote informal.

    BTW, those who came from countries where they could not vote, or voting was rigged, were, in the main, passionate supporters of compulsory voting.

    They still ring in my ears every time I read/ hear someone say s/he intends to vote informal.

  • 126
    davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    I don’t vote informally and never suggested I or anyone else should. Personally I think we all have a responsibility to make a choice regardless of how difficult or unsatisfactory the choice may seem.

  • 127
    triton
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    adrian

    Because the apparent lack of it seems to be the justification used by some to vote that way.

    I don’t see any connection between the perceived integrities of the candidates and the integrity of the voter. How does the voter lack integrity by not voting for either one in the form of an informal vote?

  • 128
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    triton

    Of course extreme is bad. Just look at Zimmerman. Extremists put laws in place that allowed that outcome.

    Then you get extremists that resort to violence all encouraged because there is such a presence of extremism

  • 129
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    so, adrian
    Ever had a boss who reduced you to tears?

  • 130
    adrian
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    No

  • 131
    davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:48 am | Permalink

    Then you obviously haven’t been paying attention. Or you have been paying attention and you lack the er.. comprehension to see the differences.

    I have been paying attention and think my comprehension abilities are satisfactory. The choice was pretty clear up until around 23 June 2013 but has been getting increasingly more opaque since then.

  • 132
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    dwh

    I have given up hoping that Rudd and Abbott will suddenly become decent, honest people, who have integrity and respect for others and who will stick to a set of policies.

    We know from the last three years that this is not the case now and there is absolutely nothing, and I mean nothing, to suggest that either of these two leopards will change their spots, come what may.

    As I have been saying for four years now, there are two rotten apples in Australian politics. The bottom line for both of them was, and is, ‘Gimme the job or I’ll wreck the joint.’

    I am not going to allow them to blackmail me with this approach.

    I think the best message to both of them is no, I will not give you the job. The only practical way to do this is to vote informal or to find an independent with integrity.

  • 133
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    If you deliberately vote informal or fail to vote at all the very worst candidate on the ticket is still a better candidate than you deserve and the worst party still a better party than you have a right to demand.

    History is made by those that show up it is an extreme cowardice to fail to show up and then whinge about what those who did show up achieved.

    Such cowardice and whinging is a much bigger problem for our democracy than the three snots in the trough clubs who benefit most from it.

  • 134
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    davidwh

    Policies are the difference.

  • 135
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    adrian
    It is not gossip that Rudd has done so, is it?

  • 136
    my say
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    CONFESSIONS HOW AMAZING YOU thought of that

    its what vicy and i had been saying from day one

    but were castigated for / , so glad u now agree.
    and have caught on.
    ===========================================================

    BW not voting is a finable offence,

  • 137
    Tricot
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    Lizzie

    If it was Albert Langer? it was a long time ago he was a student.

  • 138
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    “@joeobrien24: HMAS Albany started monitoring asylum seeker boat in rough seas from 12.40am Tues .. Boat capsized 6.40pm .. media conf on @abcnews24 now”

  • 139
    triton
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Of course extreme is bad.

    As passionately as you might believe that, it is not an objective judgement. Those you label extremists obviously have enough support to have a big influence, so obviously all those people don’t regard extremism as bad (or don’t consider themselves extremists). It is an entirely subjective judgement that what you regard as extreme is bad. Again, if U.S. voters agree with you, they can show up and vote accordingly.

  • 140
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    dwh
    The policies might be the difference or they might not. A casual glance at the various positions of Rudd and Abbott on AGW policies demonstrates comprehensively that they are both taking on any position that suits their personal political power and they are both utterly incapable of sticking to a good policy when it threatens their personal political power.

    Ordinarily, I would agree with the notions that policy make the difference. In this case there is no committment to policy at all. These two will do whatever it takes, policy-wise.

  • 141
    Tricot
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    The current capsize of one of these boats and the navy’s inability to do much about it makes the opposition’s claim that they will make the navy “tow the boats back when it is safe to do so” one of the most stupid ideas to come from any responsible political party.

  • 142
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    my say

    ‘BW not voting is a finable offence,’

    I will go in and get my name crossed off. What I do in the voting booth is a private matter and I cannot be fined for what I do, or do not do, there.

  • 143
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    Queenslanders the should never forget that Abbott campaigned against the Labor Government levy to assist after the devastating floods.

    His care for Queensland is like carbon dioxide – invisible

  • 144
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    Triton

    Most of the US has shown in polls they think extremism is bad.

    This came about because of 9/11 if not before

  • 145
    Tricot
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:55 am | Permalink

    And, further to 141 I note the Indonesians have yet to agree to allowing our ‘boats’ to actually refuel in Indonesia – even for the humanitarian efforts by our navy.

    One wonders how an aggressive Abbott, forcing our navel personnel to do his dirty work, will cope with the logistics of it all without the support of the Indonesians?

  • 146
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    Tricot

    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:52 am | Permalink

    The current capsize of one of these boats and the navy’s inability to do much about it makes the opposition’s claim that they will make the navy “tow the boats back when it is safe to do so” one of the most stupid ideas to come from any responsible political party.
    —————————————————–

    Responsible….Abbott/Liberals……….hahahahahaha

  • 147
    matt31
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    @Dee 107

    I would not worry too much, it is very easy to quickly question where things are heading politically when listening to talk back, right wing dominated radio. You need to remember that most people listening to and participating in a show like Alan Jones’s show are rusted on Liberals. It is not exactly a show one would make a habbit of listening to if they had other than a right of centre view of things. As much as he does win his time slot, it is still the case that the vast majority of people do not listen to him.

    I can well remember listening to talk back radio the day before the 2007 election. I heard call after call proclaiming that the polls were wrong, they had not spoken to a single person who intended to vote Labor, Howard would win in a landslide, so much so that I really started to question whether Howard might actually pull it off again. Of course, that did not happen, and this was a good reminder to me that commercial talk back radio is not a particularly accurate guide to what is actually happening.

  • 148
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    It seems the truth about the recent cricket is coming out -

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-16/clarke-reportedly-labelled-watson-a-cancer/4824462

  • 149
    my say
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    so BW and political

    ANIMAL

    I WANT THIS ANSWERED

    WILL you stop using medi care, will you pay full price for your medicine, will u take no advantage of NDIS i needed.

    NO OF COURSE U WANT SO STOP GRANDSTANDING

    your like union people who don’t turn up to vote but STILL
    WELCOME THE PAY RISE,

    i find this all very hypocritical indeed

    and quite stupid,

    to do.

    tell ME WHAT WILL YOU GAIN, no body knows how you vote

    only u and u have to live with your selves

    i will VOTE RUDD /LABOR OVER the other mongrel any day

  • 150
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, July 17, 2013 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    Tricot

    That’s why I put “student” in quotes. I think he was either a perpetual student or a perpetual protester.

    http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/events/election_04/albertlanger.htm

    In 1996, Albert Langer was jailed for telling people how to vote. Langer was a member of the Neither! campaign, which argued that voters shouldn't have to direct their preferences to parties they didn't agree with. They said that voters could legally vote 1 for a party of their choice, and then put a 2 in each of the other boxes, thereby stopping their preferences from flowing on to the major parties when they didn't want them to. This was particularly aimed at supporters of minor parties, who might not want to see their votes ultimately go to Labor or the Coalition, as it usually does for all votes in the House of Representatives.

    The Australian Electoral Commission wasn't very happy with this campaign. While it argued that Langer had the right to vote this way, he should not be encouraging others to do so. The Victorian Supreme Court ultimately agreed and then ordered that Langer be jailed for contempt of court when he continued his campaign after being ordered to stop. When Langer was sent to prison Amnesty International declared him Australia's first prisoner of conscience for more than twenty years, and called for his release.

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