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BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

Despite some movement on the primary vote, a third week of post-Ruddstoration polling finds the parties remain at dead level on two-party preferred.

Three weeks after I hit reset on BludgerTrack (a fact now represented on the sidebar charts, in which the Gillard and Rudd epochs as separate series), the results remain sensitive to weekly variation as the overall pool of data is still very shallow (eleven polls in all). This week we have had Nielsen’s monthly result, the poll which appeared last week from newcomers AMR Research, and the usual weekly Essential and Morgan. The state relativities have been updated with last week’s result of federal voting intention in Queensland from ReachTEL, along with breakdowns from Nielsen and Morgan (the latter of which pleasingly looks to have become a regular feature).

What this all adds up to is a move this week from minor to major parties, one consequence of which is that the Greens have recorded what by some distance is their worst result since BludgerTrack opened for business in November. This may well portend a further decline born of the leadership change and the tightening focus on the major party contest, but I would want more evidence before I signed on to that with confidence. It’s certainly clear that the return of Rudd has been bad news for the combined non-major party vote, but the scale of it is a bit up in the air at the moment. So far as this week’s result is concerned, the shift has enabled Labor to both handily break through the 40% primary vote barrier while going backwards slightly on two-party preferred, on which the Coalition recovers the narrowest of leads.

Tellingly, despite two-party preferred being a mirror image of the 2010 election result, the seat projection still points to a continuation of Labor in office, albeit that it would rely on Andrew Wilkie (whom ReachTEL suggested to be on track for victory in its Denison poll last month) and Adam Bandt (who will continue to be designated as the member for Melbourne until polling evidence emerges to suggest he will lose, which will by no means surprise me if happens) to shore it up in parliament. This points to the crucial importance of Queensland, where there are no fewer than nine LNP seats on margins of less than 5%. So long as the swing in that state remains where BludgerTrack has it at present, Labor could well be in business.

However, as Kevin Bonham notes, there is an obstacle facing Labor on any pathway to victory that runs through Queensland: eight of the nine marginals will be subject to the effects of “sophomore surge”, in which members facing re-election for the first time enjoy a small fillip by virtue of acquiring the personal vote which is usually due to an incumbent. In seven of the nine cases this comes down to the LNP members having won their seats from Labor last time, although Leichhardt and Bonner are a little more complicated in that the members had held them at earlier times. The other two LNP marginals are the Townsville seat of Herbert, which stayed in the LNP fold in 2010 upon the retirement of the sitting member, and Fisher, which as Kevin Bonham notes is a “fake marginal” and an unlikely Labor gain.

The BludgerTrack model has sophomore surge effects covered, with adjustments of between 0.4% and 1.9% applied according to whether the seat is metropolitan or regional (the latter being more susceptible to candidate effects generally) or has what Bonham calls the “double sophomore” effect, in which the challenging party also loses the personal vote of its defeated member from the previous election. Other factors used in the model to project a seat’s result are the existing margin, the statewide swing as determined by the poll trend, and a weighting to account for an electorate’s tendency to swing historically. These results are then used to calculate a probability of the seat being won by Labor, and the sum of the various seats’ probability scores determines the statewide seat total shown on the sidebar. Sophomore surge effects are currently reducing Labor’s Queensland total by about 1.3 seats, which means they will be down one seat for about two-thirds of the time, and down two seats for the remainder.

Finally, sharp-eyed observers may note that the projection has Labor down a seat in New South Wales, by the narrowest of margins, despite a small swing in their favour on the two-party preferred. The loss of sitting members in three loseable seats (Dobell, Kingsford Smith and Barton) is playing a part here, but it also represents the fact that the model rates Labor as having been slightly lucky to have won a twenty-sixth seat there at the last election.

2745
  • 2701
    Evan Parsons
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:47 pm | Permalink

    The Liberal tactic is obviously to fill the media space with bluster and soundbites from Abbott, Hockey, Morrison.
    Now, what if the next Newspoll shows Labor ahead, by 51-49? The whole News Ltd/talkback radio shitstorm directed at Rudd will have been all for nothing.

  • 2702
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

    Psephos:

    Shorter Rudd: I can get to the right of the Libs on just about everything, and all the lefties will still cheer me

    Well at the risk of a no true Scotsman fallacy, I’d say anyone who was cheering him in such circumstances could not claim credibly to be a lefty.

    However that may be, this lefty will do no such thing.

  • 2703
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

    Libs have had the narrative this week. Newspoll will shift to them, IMO.

  • 2704
    bemused
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

    adrian@2688

    ‘But spur, weren’t all Gillards (sic) problems caused by Rudd white-anting???’

    The apostrophe nazi strikes again, but you should know by now that yes it was all Rudd’s fault.

    Yes, I realised as soon as I hit enter I had omitted an apostrophe.

    As penance I shall type “Gillard’s” ten times. ;)

    Prof Quiggin wrote a good summary of the Gillard / Rudd issue here. Gillard and Rudd: a short history

  • 2705
    adrian
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

    ‘A Melbourne Car loan company has sacked half it’s workforce.’

    No surprise to see Sean Tisme unable to use a simple apostrophe. Sorry Sean, I know it’s a word of more than two syllables.

  • 2706
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

    Evan

    The hard part for Abbott is PMKR knows how to time announcements for the 24 hour news cycle and polls especially the oracle Newspoll

  • 2707
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

    If Newspoll turns on Labor, will they look at replacing Rudd?

    Possibly take Shorten to the election as leader?

  • 2708
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

    @Sean/2707

    Last Newspoll shows 50/50.
    Reachtel from last night shows +1 to 51/49.

  • 2709
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

    If Newspoll turns on Labor, will they look at replacing Rudd?

    Possibly take Shorten to the election as leader?

    Stick to script. When you stop copying and pasting, and start coming up with your own thoughts, you sound like a total lunatic.

  • 2710
    adrian
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

    bemused, you are hereby forgiven…

  • 2711
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:53 pm | Permalink

    Sean

    Last two days have been Abbott reacting. PMKR is setting the agenda

  • 2712
    Outsider
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:55 pm | Permalink

    It seems to have escaped attention that the car FBT rules were extensively changed in the 2011 Budget. The old system, whereby the taxable value was determined on a sliding scale based on the number of kilometres travelled (ranging from 26% of the vehicle’s original cost where travel was under 15,000kms to only 7% for vehicles travelling more than 40,000kms, was replaced with a single 20% of cost method for valuing the benefit. It was announced at the time this change would generate additional revenue of $954 million over the forward estimates. see http://ministers.treasury.gov.au/DisplayDocs.aspx?doc=pressreleases/2011/050.htm&pageID=003&min=wms&Year=2011&DocType=0

  • 2713
    Boerwar
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:55 pm | Permalink

    I’ve just discovered anothery – a friend of a friend who, after a lifetime of active political involvement is going to vote informal.

    Counting Fran, that makes at least three of us who are going to vote informal and put a little note on the ballot paper, wtte, neither Rudd nor Abbott is up to basic standards of honesty and integrity.

    Maybe we could start an Informal Party?

  • 2714
    Boerwar
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

    ST

    ‘If Newspoll turns on Labor, will they look at replacing Rudd?

    Possibly take Shorten to the election as leader?’

    Good questions, IMHO.

  • 2715
    Compact Crank
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

    guytaur @2700

    The ALP Premier of SA appears to disagree with you fo rsoem reason.

    What would he know? pffft

  • 2716
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

    Honestly, I don’t know which way the polls move. On one hand, the air of desperation from the Coalition is quite apparent. OTOH, there have been a few decisions made in the last week or so that have been reacted to a bit negatively.

    Also, with all the mud being slung at Rudd thus far, some of it might start to stick.

  • 2717
    sprocket_
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

    in case you haven’t read Rupert’s letter where he apologises for being caught

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/07/19/rupert-murdoch-letter-i-used-the-wrong-adjectives/

  • 2718
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

    bw

    You could vote for the Bullet Train party they want Anfrew O Keefe as PM

  • 2719
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

    Guytaur,

    Last 2 days have been about Labors boatpeople disaster and the FBT scheme stuff up.

    Doesn’t look like Rudd is setting agenda anymore

  • 2720
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

    sprocket_

    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

    Joe Hockey ‏@JoeHockey 53s We oppose and will not introduce Kevin Rudds flawed FBTtax grab. 10,000 car orders frozen and jobs gone and more going.#krudd can’t govern!
    ——————————————————-

    So the Liberals will repeal the changes to FBT. Then stop the $500 million in subsidies to the car industry and then impose a new 1.5% tax to pay for parental leave

    There is a stench floating around this Liberal Party – desperation. They think we all as stupid as some Liberal supporters that post on here

  • 2721
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:58 pm | Permalink

    Crank

    SA Premier has no choice. He has to make noises car companies want no matter what he privately believes.

    Its called keeping your biggest employer group on side.

  • 2722
    ratsak
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:58 pm | Permalink

    Respect the position Boerwar, but I’m going to vote for my lizard in the hope that the other lizard doesn’t get in.

  • 2723
    Evan Parsons
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:58 pm | Permalink

    Every board needs a Pro Liberal concern troll – Sean fits the bill very nicely :)

  • 2724
    Evan Parsons
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:00 pm | Permalink

    An announcement over the weekend of the Catholic schools and or Victoria signing up to Gonski would be helpful for Labor too.

  • 2725
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:00 pm | Permalink

    ST

    If you mean boats coming nothing new there.
    What is new is Indonesia and todays announcement on AS.

    As for FBT that is not a stuff up.

  • 2726
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

    Sean

    BTW do not forget reports of PMKR meeting Keating in the last week.

    Makes you think. Or it should

  • 2727
    spur212
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

    Narrative schmartive. All I’ve heard in the media is a bunch of crazy conservatives getting all upset that their words and their lines that they’ve used for the last three years no longer work. Every day this week when Abbott’s given a media appearance, he’s sounded way off centre.

    As for the polls, I expect we’re not going to see any movement for a bit. The ALP’s got the base back and that primary vote ain’t heading below 38% any time soon.

    Newspoll will probably be bouncy as usual. Might even show the ALP ahead, but it doesn’t really matter that much in the long run

  • 2728
    bemused
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar@2713

    I’ve just discovered anothery – a friend of a friend who, after a lifetime of active political involvement is going to vote informal.

    Counting Fran, that makes at least three of us who are going to vote informal and put a little note on the ballot paper, wtte, neither Rudd nor Abbott is up to basic standards of honesty and integrity.

    Maybe we could start an Informal Party?

    Can I have naming rights?
    The Imbecile Party

  • 2729
    ratsak
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

    Carey,

    Labor could cure cancer and there would be an immediate, loud and sustained negative reaction from the usual suspects.

    Doesn’t mean it will hurt politically (though it may). Labor just needed to be within striking distance at the start of the campaign which they are. FBT will be a 48hr wonder and forgotten come the election. Abbott won’t win if all he has to offer is NO.

  • 2730
    Compact Crank
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

    It could actually be illegal to encourage people not to vote, I think.

    Or maybe it’s just the nutbags who get busted multiple times for not voting use it as a grandstand.

  • 2731
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

    Sean

    Here no excuse for you. Mr Craig Thomson’s statement

    http://twitdoc.com/view.asp?id=102173&sid=26U5&ext=PDF&lcl=STATEMENT-BY-CRAIG-THOMSON.pdf&usr=DobellThommo&doc=154664867&key=key-iac8ab59kkyiyrrj3l8

  • 2732
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

    Doesn’t mean it will hurt politically (though it may)

    Basically what I said.

  • 2733
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

    Interesting there is no discussion on Economy.

  • 2734
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

    New thread.

  • 2735
    Compact Crank
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:06 pm | Permalink

    ratsak @2729 – that’s just a stupid thing to say. Sound policy isd always worth supporting – floating the AUD is an example – supported buy the Coalition and always given due credit.

  • 2736
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:07 pm | Permalink

    Labor finally deciding to properly ramping up the Pacific Solution.

    Why didn’t Gillard do this when she introduced the Pacific Solution rather than sabotaging it by sending a handful and procesing 98% onshore?

    And whats Labor position on offshore processing of women and children and if it’s onshore processing then will they take responsibility when the boats start coming packed full of kids?

  • 2737
    adrian
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

    ‘Counting Fran, that makes at least three of us who are going to vote informal and put a little note on the ballot paper, wtte, neither Rudd nor Abbott is up to basic standards of honesty and integrity.

    Maybe we could start an Informal Party?’

    I always thought that Informal Parties were preferable to Formal Ones.

  • 2738
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

    Sean Tisme

    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

    Guytaur,

    Last 2 days have been about Labors boatpeople disaster and the FBT scheme stuff up.

    Doesn’t look like Rudd is setting agenda anymore
    —————————————————

    Abbott and his sycophant supporters have been ranting about boats for 6 years.

    When Labor went to the election in 2007 they had a policy. They were elected to Government, they had a mandate from the voters to implement the change.

    Then in 2008 the Liberals came out in support of the Labor changes.

    Since then all we’ve heard is bring back the Pacific Solution – it worked

    The number of people held in immigration detention during the time the boats stopped.
    2002–03 6602
    2003–04 6196
    2004–05 7410
    2005–06 6510
    2006–07 4718
    from Dept of Immigration website

    The Pacific Solution was re-introduced, and the boats kept coming showing that the Policy was flawed.

  • 2739
    Darn
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

    Evan Parsons
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:47 pm | Permalink
    The Liberal tactic is obviously to fill the media space with bluster and soundbites from Abbott, Hockey, Morrison.
    Now, what if the next Newspoll shows Labor ahead, by 51-49? The whole News Ltd/talkback radio shitstorm directed at Rudd will have been all for nothing.

    I’m not making any predictions about what other polls might do, but in a week when the government seemed to be under considerable pressure the Reachtel poll moved in its favour – 52/48 Lib in late June, now 51-49 Lib, with the ALP pv up a point to 39. Let’s hope it’s a trend.

  • 2740
    shellbell
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:25 pm | Permalink

    Thomson saying accept hypothetically I was responsible for these expenditures. Crown can’t prove want of authority.

  • 2741
    geoffrey
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

    the fbt car thing is nothing more than rort. allows people to drive in luxury cars, racking up unlimited kilometres of priate use courtesy foregone taxes. really!

    hope they hit negative gearing one day. one step at a time will do for that monster

  • 2742
    geoffrey
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:42 pm | Permalink

    still wonder why rudd just doesn’t go softly softly until election … fbt is first budget stuff …

  • 2743
    geoffrey
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

    “Counting Fran, that makes at least three of us who are going to vote informal and put a little note on the ballot paper, wtte, neither Rudd nor Abbott is up to basic standards of honesty and integrity.”

    integrity = denouncing strangers of lying in telecommunication media without any information ie lying about lying just for sake of bad mouthing and foul mouthing not even arguing. ah, the benchmark of honest and integrity, slagging on blogs

  • 2744
    Gary
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    Bloody brilliant.

  • 2745
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

    I just thought I’d let you know William that yesterday and today I tried looking at PB on my android. There’s no obvious way to find the latest threads including this one.

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