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BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

Despite some movement on the primary vote, a third week of post-Ruddstoration polling finds the parties remain at dead level on two-party preferred.

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Three weeks after I hit reset on BludgerTrack (a fact now represented on the sidebar charts, in which the Gillard and Rudd epochs as separate series), the results remain sensitive to weekly variation as the overall pool of data is still very shallow (eleven polls in all). This week we have had Nielsen’s monthly result, the poll which appeared last week from newcomers AMR Research, and the usual weekly Essential and Morgan. The state relativities have been updated with last week’s result of federal voting intention in Queensland from ReachTEL, along with breakdowns from Nielsen and Morgan (the latter of which pleasingly looks to have become a regular feature).

What this all adds up to is a move this week from minor to major parties, one consequence of which is that the Greens have recorded what by some distance is their worst result since BludgerTrack opened for business in November. This may well portend a further decline born of the leadership change and the tightening focus on the major party contest, but I would want more evidence before I signed on to that with confidence. It’s certainly clear that the return of Rudd has been bad news for the combined non-major party vote, but the scale of it is a bit up in the air at the moment. So far as this week’s result is concerned, the shift has enabled Labor to both handily break through the 40% primary vote barrier while going backwards slightly on two-party preferred, on which the Coalition recovers the narrowest of leads.

Tellingly, despite two-party preferred being a mirror image of the 2010 election result, the seat projection still points to a continuation of Labor in office, albeit that it would rely on Andrew Wilkie (whom ReachTEL suggested to be on track for victory in its Denison poll last month) and Adam Bandt (who will continue to be designated as the member for Melbourne until polling evidence emerges to suggest he will lose, which will by no means surprise me if happens) to shore it up in parliament. This points to the crucial importance of Queensland, where there are no fewer than nine LNP seats on margins of less than 5%. So long as the swing in that state remains where BludgerTrack has it at present, Labor could well be in business.

However, as Kevin Bonham notes, there is an obstacle facing Labor on any pathway to victory that runs through Queensland: eight of the nine marginals will be subject to the effects of “sophomore surge”, in which members facing re-election for the first time enjoy a small fillip by virtue of acquiring the personal vote which is usually due to an incumbent. In seven of the nine cases this comes down to the LNP members having won their seats from Labor last time, although Leichhardt and Bonner are a little more complicated in that the members had held them at earlier times. The other two LNP marginals are the Townsville seat of Herbert, which stayed in the LNP fold in 2010 upon the retirement of the sitting member, and Fisher, which as Kevin Bonham notes is a “fake marginal” and an unlikely Labor gain.

The BludgerTrack model has sophomore surge effects covered, with adjustments of between 0.4% and 1.9% applied according to whether the seat is metropolitan or regional (the latter being more susceptible to candidate effects generally) or has what Bonham calls the “double sophomore” effect, in which the challenging party also loses the personal vote of its defeated member from the previous election. Other factors used in the model to project a seat’s result are the existing margin, the statewide swing as determined by the poll trend, and a weighting to account for an electorate’s tendency to swing historically. These results are then used to calculate a probability of the seat being won by Labor, and the sum of the various seats’ probability scores determines the statewide seat total shown on the sidebar. Sophomore surge effects are currently reducing Labor’s Queensland total by about 1.3 seats, which means they will be down one seat for about two-thirds of the time, and down two seats for the remainder.

Finally, sharp-eyed observers may note that the projection has Labor down a seat in New South Wales, by the narrowest of margins, despite a small swing in their favour on the two-party preferred. The loss of sitting members in three loseable seats (Dobell, Kingsford Smith and Barton) is playing a part here, but it also represents the fact that the model rates Labor as having been slightly lucky to have won a twenty-sixth seat there at the last election.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2745 comments

2,745 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

  1. Player One

    [ I wish something could remove the pernicious influence of errant apostrophes used by the grammatically challenged. ]

    Grow up, adrian.

  2. adrian

    ‘It’s amazing that asking people to provide some actual evidence for the tax concessions they are claiming has got so many people in a panic.’

    Yes, and it’s indicative of the dire state of political debate, together with the overarching sense of entitlement in this country.

  3. zoidlord

    @Sean/2645

    So I suppose you Believe Abbott’s Real Solutions Policy vs what he says on TV then?

  4. guytaur

    Sean

    Read the actual statement.

  5. bemused

    daretotread@2635

    The Indonesia Visa deal with Iranians is actually a HUGE step forward. Immediately about 1/3-1/2 the flow of “boat people” is stopped. This is especially important because very, very few of the Iranians would meet stringent tests for refugee status.

    While we may not LIKE the Iranian government there is no evidence of genocide or systematic persecution on grounds of race or religion or even politics.

    Not quite true.
    For example, members of the Baha’i faith have been persecuted and killed.

  6. adrian

    ‘Grow up, adrian.’

    Learn to use apostrophes Player One. It’s not hard and I could recommend several books if you are so inclined.

  7. mikehilliard

    daretoread@2635 – I’d be prepared to suggest that Iran has been persecuting various religions & political parties, whether it be by the Shah or the Ayatollah Khomeini for many years. What makes you think this is not so?

  8. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: Opposition Leader @TonyAbbottMHR is speaking at a car dealership in Brisbane. Watch live: http://t.co/TtTI3ZYXOH #auspol #ausvotes”

  9. guytaur

    Abbott has latched onto FBT.

    Something new to say NO to.

  10. zoidlord

    @guytaur/2653

    Joe Hockey eyes are wondering.

    Must be thinking about something.

  11. guytaur

    @kfm52: I demand the right to rort the tax system using my car, overseas conferences, restaurant meals and entertaing “clients” at the footyl. #fbt

    Retweeted by Stephen Long

  12. mikehilliard

    What is Abbott on about? Another version of the mining tax.

  13. Meguire Bob

    Joe Hockey is starting to sweat

  14. adrian

    It’s a wonder any politicians bother to do anything these days, such is the sense of enlightenment and whining and whinging that inevitably accompanies any remotely worthwhile change.

    This has become so much worse since the media became intent on beating up any supposed controversy mercilessly.

  15. Psephos

    [Must be thinking about something.]

    He has a brief period of sentience after lunch I believe.

  16. guytaur

    Hockey calls it a new tax. Idiot same tax its compliance

  17. Fran Barlow

    DTT:

    [For example if it has been common practice to “entertain” visitors with food, wine and other services]

    I find this whole area at best in the ethically grey area, in terms of business, but it is hard to legislate. OTOH, whereas most people in business will happily admit to having taken a client to lunch, most clients wouldn’t want their sexual entertainment made a matter of public record.

    Can’t you imagine a person filling out their business ledger with the particulars of service? Nice …

    If you can’t talk about something in public, then you probably can’t be claiming it as a business expense since it is, at best a purely private matter.

    IMO, If the HSU was, incompetently, recklessly or wittingly using member funds to pay for brothel visits by anyone, it was not only the sex workers but the members as well who were getting screwed.

  18. zoidlord

    Looks like they at a Ford Dealership.

    Some people might need to remember it way Coalition Party that was split on getting rid of $500 million dollar subsidy.

  19. ratsak

    Anyone of the leftish/progressive persuasion hankering for Malcolm really does need a Bex and a good lie down. Sure he is made to look positively charming in comparison to Abbott, but that’s no recommendation. He is decidedly dry in his economics and would have no hesitation dismantling and privatising as much of our public sphere as he could get away with. The billions flowing to his mates in the finance industry through consultancies and fees would merely be a nice bonus that he would surely find a way to tap into via family trusts or other vehicles at arms length.

    He doesn’t have any particularly strong social views so he can come out and say he supports things like gay marriage, but there is no way on earth that he would ever actually lift a finger to make it happen in government or even allow a conscience vote whilst he was dependent on the good will of the reactionaries that tore him down once before for the leadership.

    In fact he pretty much wouldn’t have any strong view on anything that much differed from the Liberal’s current position. The barrister in Turnbull is always close to the surface. He is perfectly happy arguing any old rubbish using any trick he can think of and feeling pretty chuffed with himself for a great performance if he can successfully suck people in. He’d be perfectly happy running whatever brief the Liberal powerbrokers gave him so long as he could perform on the big stage. So carbon pricing, gay marriage and any other issue those falling for reTurnbull are imagining will suddenly be less stupid from the Libs under Turnbull will be sorely disappointed.

    But don’t worry, Malcolm will probably put in such a convincing performance explaining why Bernardi and Minchin were right all along you’ll probably find yourself still liking him. If not then he’ll just smear you like he does anyone who points out inconvenient facts about fraudband because the urbane charm is just a veneer over a nasty streak that he doesn’t mind letting out on those he can’t baffle into submission.

    If anything he’d be much worse than Abbott. Probably driving an even more right wing economic policy and gutting our public institutions whilst pandering to the worst of the tea-baggers that infest his base to keep em sweet, but with enough brains and chutzpah to make the swinging middle believe his shit was chocolate ice cream. Howard as Howard wished he could be but with a personality.

  20. mikehilliard

    Will it wipe out Wyalla?

  21. guytaur

    “@AshGhebranious: LOL A car dealer is NOT the motor industry nor can they speak on BEHALF of the motor industry. Another Abbott stunt #auspol #abcnews24”

  22. Sean Tisme

    Labor can’t eliminate a Labor Tax without introducing a new Labor Tax

  23. guytaur

    Sean

    FBT is not a new tax. Keating introduced it before Howard was PM

  24. Player One

    [ Learn to use apostrophes Player One. It’s not hard and I could recommend several books if you are so inclined. ]

    If you’d rather argue the use of apostrophes on a psephological blog, I presume it is because you can’t actually argue the issues.

    So by all means – knock yourself out.

  25. jaundiced view

    One things for sure – the ordinary working HSU members didn’t ‘authorise’ Thomson’s use of the cards for the purposes found by the FWC.

  26. adrian

    In my experience a Ford dealership can’t even speak much about Ford cars, so heaven knows how they can speak about the whole industry.

  27. Psephos

    [On April 5, 2006 a call was made from Mr Thomson’s hotel room at the Grand Hyatt in Melbourne to Young Blondes escort agency and later to Confidential Models escort agency.

    On June 7, 2006 a call was made from his room at Pacific International Suites in Melbourne to an escort agency called Bad Girls.]

    Perfectly legitimate business expenses, your honour.

  28. zoidlord

    20 minute rant.

  29. Psephos

    Breaking: 25,000 cattle “excited” at promise of free trip to Indonesia.

  30. Meguire Bob

    Hockey was embarrassed of abbotts ramblings so he interrupted him

  31. Player One

    ratsak,

    You do realize that your regurgitation of the Guardian article is just in essence saying that Turnbull is nothing more than your “classic” liberal?

    Quite so – this is precisely why he would be so electable.

  32. Evan Parsons

    Labor better start reminding the media and everyone else of the Liberal plan to cut subsidies to the car industry

  33. jaundiced view

    apostrophe devil got me too – ‘thing’s for sure’, not ‘things for sure’

  34. mikehilliard

    What an utterly hopeless presser that was.

  35. Meguire Bob

    Evan Parsons
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:25 pm | PERMALINK
    Labor better start reminding the media and everyone else of the Liberal plan to cut subsidies to the car industry

    ————-

    well start to put pressure on the pro coalition media hacks

  36. spur212

    Abbott’s getting caught in Rudd’s word game quicksand … similar to the way Gillard got caught in Abbott’s word game quicksand

    He’s going to sound even crazier in the coming weeks as the emotional vibe starts to slip out of his fingers

  37. adrian

    ‘Abbott’s getting caught in Rudd’s word game quicksand … similar to the way Gillard got caught in Abbott’s word game quicksand’

    Have you got some examples spur212?

    I hope this is so.

  38. guytaur

    I think FBT is another reason to have parliament sit.

    Once passes Abbott has to repeal while defending against a new word slogan (Remember Abbott has proved slogans do not have to be true.) “Rorts for the rich”

  39. bemused

    spur212@2681

    Abbott’s getting caught in Rudd’s word game quicksand … similar to the way Gillard got caught in Abbott’s word game quicksand

    He’s going to sound even crazier in the coming weeks as the emotional vibe starts to slip out of his fingers

    But spur, weren’t all Gillards problems caused by Rudd white-anting??? 😮

  40. guytaur

    “@SenatorWong: Conservative PM David Cameron gave MPs conscience vote & SSM is now law in UK. Marriage equality happens when all MPs have a conscience vote”

    Interesting timing from Senator Wong

  41. Evan Parsons

    Same sex marriage – support for it – is something Rudd should use as an election campaign issue.

  42. spur212

    Adrian

    Hear the tone.

    Oppose, negative, no. Rudd’s already framed that as being “negative politics”

    On boats, if his tone gets aggressive and confrontational, that plays into Rudd’s “conflict” frame

  43. adrian

    ‘But spur, weren’t all Gillards (sic) problems caused by Rudd white-anting???’

    The apostrophe nazi strikes again, but you should know by now that yes it was all Rudd’s fault.

  44. Evan Parsons

    Tony Abbott is what he always has been: the standard bearer for News Ltd and right wing talkback radio(especially 2GB)
    When 2GB starts bagging Labor over some issue, you can guarantee that it will become official Abbott policy 24 hours later.

  45. mimhoff

    [But don’t worry, Malcolm will probably put in such a convincing performance explaining why Bernardi and Minchin were right all along you’ll probably find yourself still liking him.]

    This is what people want when they say they want “leadership” though, isn’t it?

  46. spur212

    The Coalition are trying to get Rudd caught in the “fake change” frame. That won’t work unless Rudd does or says something really stupid to validate it

    Same deal with the “celebrity” frame which I hope they continue with. “Don’t you get it, he’s ‘popular!'” LOL

  47. sprocket_

    [Joe Hockey ‏@JoeHockey 53s We oppose and will not introduce Kevin Rudds flawed FBTtax grab. 10,000 car orders frozen and jobs gone and more going.#krudd can’t govern!]

    someone is losing the plot on the FBT rorts crackdown.

    Next we weill have Alan Jones leading a motley crew of novated lease holders an used car salesmen in a march on Parliament.

    What do we want?
    More Rorts
    When do we want it?
    Now!

  48. Sean Tisme

    A Melbourne Car loan company has sacked half it’s workforce.

    Rudd should apologise to these sacked workers

  49. sohar

    Interesting to see what happens in the Liberal Party and associated media should Turnbull get the leadership. A lot of Liberals like Rudd more than they do Malcolm.

  50. Psephos

    [Rudd should apologise to these sacked workers]

    If people build businesses based on rorting the tax system, they can’t expect much sympathy when their rorting is stopped.

  51. Player One

    [ This is what people want when they say they want “leadership” though, isn’t it? ]

    What people generally seem to mean by “leadership” is anything that allows them to feel good about themselves without every actually having to think for themselves.

  52. Carey Moore

    [I got slammed yesterday for suggesting the FBT change will bite in SA, and I bloody live there.]

    Who slammed you? I certainly didn’t. I just offered a counterpoint.

  53. zoidlord

    @Sean/2693

    If you built a business based on Goverment taxes, then your that’s your fault.

  54. Player One

    [ Interesting to see what happens in the Liberal Party and associated media should Turnbull get the leadership. A lot of Liberals like Rudd more than they do Malcolm. ]

    And some Laborites like Turnbull more than they do Rudd.

  55. guytaur

    Sean

    Cannot be due to FBT changes. Has to be something else. Not retrospective and has transition phase. It affects no one who has been doing what the rules say they should have been doing all along.

  56. Evan Parsons

    The Liberal tactic is obviously to fill the media space with bluster and soundbites from Abbott, Hockey, Morrison.
    Now, what if the next Newspoll shows Labor ahead, by 51-49? The whole News Ltd/talkback radio shitstorm directed at Rudd will have been all for nothing.

  57. Fran Barlow

    Psephos:

    [Shorter Rudd: I can get to the right of the Libs on just about everything, and all the lefties will still cheer me]

    Well at the risk of a no true Scotsman fallacy, I’d say anyone who was cheering him in such circumstances could not claim credibly to be a lefty.

    However that may be, this lefty will do no such thing.

  58. gloryconsequence

    Libs have had the narrative this week. Newspoll will shift to them, IMO.

  59. bemused

    adrian@2688

    ‘But spur, weren’t all Gillards (sic) problems caused by Rudd white-anting???’

    The apostrophe nazi strikes again, but you should know by now that yes it was all Rudd’s fault.

    Yes, I realised as soon as I hit enter I had omitted an apostrophe.

    As penance I shall type “Gillard’s” ten times. 😉

    Prof Quiggin wrote a good summary of the Gillard / Rudd issue here. Gillard and Rudd: a short history

  60. adrian

    ‘A Melbourne Car loan company has sacked half it’s workforce.’

    No surprise to see Sean Tisme unable to use a simple apostrophe. Sorry Sean, I know it’s a word of more than two syllables.

  61. guytaur

    Evan

    The hard part for Abbott is PMKR knows how to time announcements for the 24 hour news cycle and polls especially the oracle Newspoll

  62. Sean Tisme

    If Newspoll turns on Labor, will they look at replacing Rudd?

    Possibly take Shorten to the election as leader?

  63. zoidlord

    @Sean/2707

    Last Newspoll shows 50/50.
    Reachtel from last night shows +1 to 51/49.

  64. Carey Moore

    [If Newspoll turns on Labor, will they look at replacing Rudd?

    Possibly take Shorten to the election as leader?]

    Stick to script. When you stop copying and pasting, and start coming up with your own thoughts, you sound like a total lunatic.

  65. adrian

    bemused, you are hereby forgiven…

  66. guytaur

    Sean

    Last two days have been Abbott reacting. PMKR is setting the agenda

  67. Outsider

    It seems to have escaped attention that the car FBT rules were extensively changed in the 2011 Budget. The old system, whereby the taxable value was determined on a sliding scale based on the number of kilometres travelled (ranging from 26% of the vehicle’s original cost where travel was under 15,000kms to only 7% for vehicles travelling more than 40,000kms, was replaced with a single 20% of cost method for valuing the benefit. It was announced at the time this change would generate additional revenue of $954 million over the forward estimates. see http://ministers.treasury.gov.au/DisplayDocs.aspx?doc=pressreleases/2011/050.htm&pageID=003&min=wms&Year=2011&DocType=0

  68. Boerwar

    I’ve just discovered anothery – a friend of a friend who, after a lifetime of active political involvement is going to vote informal.

    Counting Fran, that makes at least three of us who are going to vote informal and put a little note on the ballot paper, wtte, neither Rudd nor Abbott is up to basic standards of honesty and integrity.

    Maybe we could start an Informal Party?

  69. Boerwar

    ST

    ‘If Newspoll turns on Labor, will they look at replacing Rudd?

    Possibly take Shorten to the election as leader?’

    Good questions, IMHO.

  70. Compact Crank

    guytaur @2700

    The ALP Premier of SA appears to disagree with you fo rsoem reason.

    What would he know? pffft

  71. Carey Moore

    Honestly, I don’t know which way the polls move. On one hand, the air of desperation from the Coalition is quite apparent. OTOH, there have been a few decisions made in the last week or so that have been reacted to a bit negatively.

    Also, with all the mud being slung at Rudd thus far, some of it might start to stick.

  72. sprocket_

    in case you haven’t read Rupert’s letter where he apologises for being caught

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/07/19/rupert-murdoch-letter-i-used-the-wrong-adjectives/

  73. guytaur

    bw

    You could vote for the Bullet Train party they want Anfrew O Keefe as PM

  74. Sean Tisme

    Guytaur,

    Last 2 days have been about Labors boatpeople disaster and the FBT scheme stuff up.

    Doesn’t look like Rudd is setting agenda anymore

  75. AussieAchmed

    sprocket_

    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

    Joe Hockey ‏@JoeHockey 53s We oppose and will not introduce Kevin Rudds flawed FBTtax grab. 10,000 car orders frozen and jobs gone and more going.#krudd can’t govern!
    ——————————————————-

    So the Liberals will repeal the changes to FBT. Then stop the $500 million in subsidies to the car industry and then impose a new 1.5% tax to pay for parental leave

    There is a stench floating around this Liberal Party – desperation. They think we all as stupid as some Liberal supporters that post on here

  76. guytaur

    Crank

    SA Premier has no choice. He has to make noises car companies want no matter what he privately believes.

    Its called keeping your biggest employer group on side.

  77. ratsak

    Respect the position Boerwar, but I’m going to vote for my lizard in the hope that the other lizard doesn’t get in.

  78. Evan Parsons

    Every board needs a Pro Liberal concern troll – Sean fits the bill very nicely 🙂

  79. Evan Parsons

    An announcement over the weekend of the Catholic schools and or Victoria signing up to Gonski would be helpful for Labor too.

  80. guytaur

    ST

    If you mean boats coming nothing new there.
    What is new is Indonesia and todays announcement on AS.

    As for FBT that is not a stuff up.

  81. guytaur

    Sean

    BTW do not forget reports of PMKR meeting Keating in the last week.

    Makes you think. Or it should

  82. spur212

    Narrative schmartive. All I’ve heard in the media is a bunch of crazy conservatives getting all upset that their words and their lines that they’ve used for the last three years no longer work. Every day this week when Abbott’s given a media appearance, he’s sounded way off centre.

    As for the polls, I expect we’re not going to see any movement for a bit. The ALP’s got the base back and that primary vote ain’t heading below 38% any time soon.

    Newspoll will probably be bouncy as usual. Might even show the ALP ahead, but it doesn’t really matter that much in the long run

  83. bemused

    Boerwar@2713

    I’ve just discovered anothery – a friend of a friend who, after a lifetime of active political involvement is going to vote informal.

    Counting Fran, that makes at least three of us who are going to vote informal and put a little note on the ballot paper, wtte, neither Rudd nor Abbott is up to basic standards of honesty and integrity.

    Maybe we could start an Informal Party?

    Can I have naming rights?
    The Imbecile Party

  84. ratsak

    Carey,

    Labor could cure cancer and there would be an immediate, loud and sustained negative reaction from the usual suspects.

    Doesn’t mean it will hurt politically (though it may). Labor just needed to be within striking distance at the start of the campaign which they are. FBT will be a 48hr wonder and forgotten come the election. Abbott won’t win if all he has to offer is NO.

  85. Compact Crank

    It could actually be illegal to encourage people not to vote, I think.

    Or maybe it’s just the nutbags who get busted multiple times for not voting use it as a grandstand.

  86. Carey Moore

    [Doesn’t mean it will hurt politically (though it may)]

    Basically what I said.

  87. zoidlord

    Interesting there is no discussion on Economy.

  88. Compact Crank

    ratsak @2729 – that’s just a stupid thing to say. Sound policy isd always worth supporting – floating the AUD is an example – supported buy the Coalition and always given due credit.

  89. Sean Tisme

    Labor finally deciding to properly ramping up the Pacific Solution.

    Why didn’t Gillard do this when she introduced the Pacific Solution rather than sabotaging it by sending a handful and procesing 98% onshore?

    And whats Labor position on offshore processing of women and children and if it’s onshore processing then will they take responsibility when the boats start coming packed full of kids?

  90. adrian

    ‘Counting Fran, that makes at least three of us who are going to vote informal and put a little note on the ballot paper, wtte, neither Rudd nor Abbott is up to basic standards of honesty and integrity.

    Maybe we could start an Informal Party?’

    I always thought that Informal Parties were preferable to Formal Ones.

  91. AussieAchmed

    Sean Tisme

    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

    Guytaur,

    Last 2 days have been about Labors boatpeople disaster and the FBT scheme stuff up.

    Doesn’t look like Rudd is setting agenda anymore
    —————————————————

    Abbott and his sycophant supporters have been ranting about boats for 6 years.

    When Labor went to the election in 2007 they had a policy. They were elected to Government, they had a mandate from the voters to implement the change.

    Then in 2008 the Liberals came out in support of the Labor changes.

    Since then all we’ve heard is bring back the Pacific Solution – it worked

    The number of people held in immigration detention during the time the boats stopped.
    2002–03 6602
    2003–04 6196
    2004–05 7410
    2005–06 6510
    2006–07 4718
    from Dept of Immigration website

    The Pacific Solution was re-introduced, and the boats kept coming showing that the Policy was flawed.

  92. Darn

    [Evan Parsons
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:47 pm | Permalink
    The Liberal tactic is obviously to fill the media space with bluster and soundbites from Abbott, Hockey, Morrison.
    Now, what if the next Newspoll shows Labor ahead, by 51-49? The whole News Ltd/talkback radio shitstorm directed at Rudd will have been all for nothing.
    ]

    I’m not making any predictions about what other polls might do, but in a week when the government seemed to be under considerable pressure the Reachtel poll moved in its favour – 52/48 Lib in late June, now 51-49 Lib, with the ALP pv up a point to 39. Let’s hope it’s a trend.

  93. shellbell

    Thomson saying accept hypothetically I was responsible for these expenditures. Crown can’t prove want of authority.

  94. geoffrey

    the fbt car thing is nothing more than rort. allows people to drive in luxury cars, racking up unlimited kilometres of priate use courtesy foregone taxes. really!

    hope they hit negative gearing one day. one step at a time will do for that monster

  95. geoffrey

    still wonder why rudd just doesn’t go softly softly until election … fbt is first budget stuff …

  96. geoffrey

    “Counting Fran, that makes at least three of us who are going to vote informal and put a little note on the ballot paper, wtte, neither Rudd nor Abbott is up to basic standards of honesty and integrity.”

    integrity = denouncing strangers of lying in telecommunication media without any information ie lying about lying just for sake of bad mouthing and foul mouthing not even arguing. ah, the benchmark of honest and integrity, slagging on blogs

  97. Gary

    Bloody brilliant.

  98. Fran Barlow

    I just thought I’d let you know William that yesterday and today I tried looking at PB on my android. There’s no obvious way to find the latest threads including this one.