tip off

ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition

A second post-Ruddstoration ReachTEL result finds little change on the first, and confirms the impression that Malcolm Turnbull is strongly favoured over both the current contenders.

ReachTEL has published results of an automated phone poll of 2922 respondents across the country which has the Coalition leading 51-49, down from 52-48 in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change, from primary votes of 39.3% for Labor (up 0.5%, 45.4% for the Coalition (up 0.3%) and 8.3% for the Greens (down 0.4%). ReachTEL shows Kevin Rudd with an unusually narrow 52.4-47.6 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but the knife is nonetheless turned on Abbott by a result on voting intention under a Malcolm Turnbull leadership which has the Coalition lead at 58-42. Turnbull is also favoured 65-35 over Rudd as preferred prime minister.

2388
  • 1
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

    Another thread!

    As I said the other thread, interesting there is no discussion on economy!

  • 2
    adrian
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

    ‘Can I have naming rights?
    The Imbecile Party’

    AKA the raving looney party.

  • 3
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:10 pm | Permalink

    As I said the other thread, interesting there is no discussion on economy!

    Start one then

  • 4
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:10 pm | Permalink

    zoid

    MSM are avoiding like the plague. Once economy rules as issue the LNP is a dead duck electorally.

  • 5
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:10 pm | Permalink

    Also, I believe the FBT is an economic topic

  • 6
    adrian
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

    Slogan:

    ‘The party you have when you’re not having a party’

    You know it makes sense.
    Fran for PM. We can cure insomnia!

  • 7
    bemused
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

    adrian@2

    ‘Can I have naming rights?
    The Imbecile Party’

    AKA the raving looney party.

    Or Bore’s Batshit Insanity Party

  • 8
    Player One
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

    Turnbull is also favoured 65-35 over Rudd as preferred prime minister.

    Wow! That’s an even bigger margin than I would have thought. Seems Rudd is not exactly “Mr Popular” after all.

    Perhaps quite a few people agree with my idea that we have to get rid of both the current leaders to fix what’s wrong with politics in Australia at the moment.

  • 9
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord

    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

    Another thread!

    As I said the other thread, interesting there is no discussion on economy!
    ———————————————————

    Is there really anything to discuss?

    All Abbott does is rant “emergency” or make comparisons of our economy with countries like Greece proving what an economic minnow he really is, so you will get no discussion from Liberals.

  • 10
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

    @Player One/8

    No it would not, Turnbull as I said in the other thread will still have Joe Hockey, and the other nuts in the front bench.

    A Whole new front bench will need be created.

    @AA/9

    So smart the slogan?

  • 11
    adrian
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

    ‘Perhaps quite a few people agree with my idea that we have to get rid of both the current leaders to fix what’s wrong with politics in Australia at the moment.’

    Yes and elect the knight in shining armour, that bastion of integrity Lord Turnbull!

    You know it makes sense!

  • 12
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

    The only reason I can think Labor supporters would want Turnbull as opposition leader is because they know they are going to lose the election.

  • 13
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

    I mean out smart the slogan? to post 10.

  • 14
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:18 pm | Permalink

    Slogan for voting informal

    “The Purity Party”

  • 15
    Hugoaugogo
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

    G’day Bludgers,
    Clearly Rudd’s return (insert Rudd-based pun here) has brought things back to equilibrium. I guess it was Gillard all this time suppressing the Labor vote. THis is probably not a fair judgement on a PM with an enviable legislative record, but politics ain’t fair.

    The next big question is when does Rudd pull the trigger? He’s got the caucus meeting on Monday, but he’d probably need to see the GG before that to get the writs all sorted by midday on Monday (for an election on 24th August).

    By Monday, Rudd would have dealt, with varying decisiveness with five main issues which were hurting Labor:
    * Gillard (simply by replacing her)
    * NSW Labor (intervention + party reform)
    * Debt and deficits (the PC speech set out the argument, at least)
    * Carbon tax (early ETS)
    * Asylum seekers (some progress towards a regional solution).

    Not sure what else he needs to wait for, apart from his vanity of wanting to go to the G20 in early September.

    Still, the only real risk is that the Libs dump Abbott, which they won’t be able to do before parliament resumes on 20th August.

    Could be he pulls the pin in early August, for an election on 14th August!

  • 16
    matt31
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

    @gc 2703

    I am with you, but I do not expect the shift to be large or particularly damaging.

    Having said that, I do think Labor has to get on the front foot on the FBT issue, and highlight the fact that the Coalition’s policy is far more damaging to the car industry than stopping a tax rort.

  • 17
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

    Effectively all Abbott said in his budget reply is –

    “What Swan said Labor are doing”.

  • 18
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

    The only reason I can think Labor supporters would want Turnbull as opposition leader is because they know they are going to lose the election.

    Senseless comment. With Turnbull, Labor would stand little chance. With Abbott, Labor is even money.

  • 19
    matt31
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    While we’re on slogans:

    Tax rorts will always be easier under the Coalition.

  • 20
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:24 pm | Permalink

    Agree matt – the FBT issue will bite if they let it run.

  • 21
    fredex
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

    From Kevin Bonham’s site.

    "The findings above are confirmed by a new ReachTEL that has the Coalition ahead 51:49 at present (bearing in mind that ReachTEL federal results seem to have a slight Coalition lean), ..."

    The last bit, about ReachTel leaning to the COALition, is what interests me.

    Can someone, preferably KB himself, explain how they come to this perception, what is the maths behind such a conclusion.
    And maybe put a number on ‘slight’?

  • 22
    rummel
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

    Wow! That’s an even bigger margin than I would have thought. Seems Rudd is not exactly “Mr Popular” after all.

    Just shows how popular Gillard was.

  • 23
    triton
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

    I don’t know any of the maths, but other ReachTEL polls this year have been 57-43 and 58-42, which are at the upper end of coalition support in other polls.

  • 24
    Player One
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

    Yes and elect the knight in shining armour, that bastion of integrity Lord Turnbull!

    You know it makes sense!

    65% of people would seem to agree with you, adrian.

  • 25
    ___cog___
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

    Greens complain that a University is elitist for setting a minimum entrance score.

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/unsw-branded-elitist-for-setting-atar-benchmark-of-80-20130719-2q8v0.html

  • 26
    mikehilliard
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    Turnbull will be leader after the election, leader of the opposition that is, which is why Labor voters support him over Abbott. The prospect of another zillion suspension of standing orders in question time is too much to bear.

  • 27
    fredex
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    oh and on the Turnbull thingy I think reading Andrew Elder’s post on such is informative.
    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/turnbull-holds-forth-on-holding-back.html#comment-form

  • 28
    Boerwar
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:30 pm | Permalink

    I am not statistical but it seems that, given a choice, most voters do no actually want to vote for either of the two rotten apples
    Most voters know they are in a lesser of two rotten apples situation. Either that, or they can vote for a decent Indie. Or Vote 1 for the Informal Party.

    This ReachTel poll is excellent news for the Informal Party.

  • 29
    Rosemour or Less
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

    If we have to lose I’d much rather lose to Turnbull trhan Monkey.
    At this stage I don’t care who beats Abbott.
    As long as Toxic Tony loses the leadership or the election or both I’ll be sort of ok with it.
    Sort of.

  • 30
    Player One
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

    oh and on the Turnbull thingy I think reading Andrew Elder’s post on such is informative.
    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/turnbull-holds-forth-on-holding-back.html#comment-form

    Yes, that’s quite a good article. I particularly like this bit:

    For the popular Turnbull to replace the unpopular Abbott would require smarter Liberal strategy than they have available. It is important to keep in mind that Liberal strategists are morons

  • 31
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

    Can someone, preferably KB himself, explain how they come to this perception, what is the maths behind such a conclusion.

    We’ve had national polls from ReachTEL on April 12, May 3, June 27, and July 18. The respective 2PP results were 1.4%, 2.2%, 0.9% and now 0.9% worse for Labor than BludgerTrack had them at the time.

  • 32
    bemused
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar@28

    I am not statistical but it seems that, given a choice, most voters do no actually want to vote for either of the two rotten apples

    Opinion as to just who is a rotten apple will no doubt vary.
    I regard you as the rotten apple of this blog.

  • 33
    victoria
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    Rhys Muldoon
    LNP Coalition: thy name is shrill. #auspol

  • 34
    ruawake
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    Where will Joe find the $450 million a year to pay tax rorters FBT?

  • 35
    victoria
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    MAL Brough's role in the failed James Ashby sexual harassment case against Peter Slipper continues to raise questions about whether the LNP should ever have endorsed him.

    http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/mal-brough-v-slipper-why-you-need-know-answers/1951575/

  • 36
    ausdavo
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    Interesting that Howard’s moves on Bottom of the Harbour tax avoidance around 1982 received very little public disapproval and no howling from the Opposition!
    However, I believe the tightening up of FBT claims for cars will not reclaim as much tax as estimated.
    Talking today to a senior nurse (ALP voting), her worry is that as she salary sacrifices for her car through Qld Health she will be disadvantaged.
    My answer – you’ll get the deduction that you’re entitled to and only need 3 months of log book justification once every 5 years.
    On the other hand the lease companies are simply worried that it may be a harder sell for them. The buyers will still be there once the big dealers show how little difference it will make compared to last year’s changes to FBT claims for motor vehicles.

  • 37
    ruawake
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:38 pm | Permalink

    Seems like after millions of dollars wasted on investigations a magistrate will decide if Craig Thomson was authorised to use his union credit card.

  • 38
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:38 pm | Permalink

    @ruawake/34

    The $500 million subsides.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbott-to-slash-500m-from-car-industry-grants/story-fn59niix-1226249184501

  • 39
    ruawake
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

    vic

    The Sunny Coast daily has ditched Brough, he cannot win Fisher. I suspect he will stand down before the election.

  • 40
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:41 pm | Permalink

    “@danielhurstbne: Rudd’s asylum seeker announcement now confirmed for 4.30pm in Brisbane #auspol”

  • 41
    victoria
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:41 pm | Permalink

    ruawake

    For real?

  • 42
    ruawake
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:43 pm | Permalink

    Zoidlord

    Problem for Joe is that it is $450 million a year for ever, his one off half a billion is stuff of A4 costings legends.

  • 43
    bemused
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

    ruawake@37

    Seems like after millions of dollars wasted on investigations a magistrate will decide if Craig Thomson was authorised to use his union credit card.

    Good summary.
    And raises some questions about the futility of the funds wasted on those investigations.

  • 44
    sohar
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

    So Abbott picked up about 10 points on Rudd on the other polls re better leader – the poll is a joke, as too is Turnbull-Rudd 55-45 I could believe, but 65-35…

  • 45
    ruawake
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

    vic

    The “Daily” is the only newspaper up here, it feeds into all local media.

  • 46
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

    @ruawake/41

    Yup, which means more money going elsewhere.

    Also…

    Robert Oakeshott MP ‏@OakeyMP 1m

    2013 NEM forecasts 4 energy demand were shown 2 me today.Despite a 5 year trend-line down,they still forecast up.Justifying gold-plating IMV

  • 47
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

    Hmm …

    1. Unless I missed it, it was the Students Union, not The Greens that were crying elitism.

    Given the funding issue and the reluctance of the Federal Government to maintain per-capita funding of tertiary places, and the higher costs associated with accepting students with lower ATARs — they need a lot more support — this move isn’t all that surprising. It’s more a case of making a virtue out of necessity.

    I also note:

    UNSW's decision does not affect courses that also require students to submit a portfolio as part of the admission process, such as some of those in fine arts and design. With those courses excluded, very few at UNSW would actually be affected, based on 2013 admission scores, which are almost exclusively in the 80s and 90s anyway.

    For the record, I wouldn’t see such moves as “elitist”. While I certainly favour everyone getting the best education possible up to the time they are ready to seek admission to university, it seems to me that admitting those who are unlikely to complete courses and/or perform very poorly serves no useful end. One would be better applying those resources to assist those people come up to the mark.

  • 48
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

    Slogans

    Like Carbon Dioxide our policies are invisible – but will kill

  • 49
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

    Robert Oakeshott MP ‏@OakeyMP 21s

    a couple more to think about. Wholesale price has not changed in past decade, so why has retail gone through the roof.?

  • 50
    bemused
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

    sohar@44

    So Abbott picked up about 10 points on Rudd on the other polls re better leader – the poll is a joke, as too is Turnbull-Rudd 55-45 I could believe, but 65-35…

    Some of that 65 will simply be those who want to see the back of Abbott. Once Abbott is gone we would see a truer measure and Mr Fraudband may not come up so flash.

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...