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Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48 after a dead heat a fortnight ago, but there’s some encouragement for Labor in an extra question on asylum seeker policy.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, after a dead heat a fortnight ago. This comes off a three-point lift in the Coalition primary vote to 45%, with Labor down a point to 37% and the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, which blew out from 49-35 in his first poll to 53-31 in his second, is roughly back where it started at 50-34. Rudd’s approval ratings have followed a similar course over the three polls, this one showing approval down a point to 42% and disapproval up five to 41%, while Tony Abbott is steady at 35% and 56%. However, the Prime Minister can take solace in a finding that 26% now consider Labor the past party to deal with asylum seekers, up six since the question was last asked, with the Coalition plummeting 14 points to 33%.

Earlier today we had the regular weekly Morgan poll, which was little changed on last time with Labor down half a point to 41.5%, the Coalition steady on 41%, and the Greens up two points to 9%. There was actually a slight move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the previous election, presumably because of rounding, their lead up from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences, the lead is steady at 52.5-47.5. Regrettably, the poll does not come with state breakdowns, which keen observers among us had started to think would be a regular feature (as it surely should be with such a large sample size).

Essential Research is delayed this week and will be along tomorrow.

UPDATE: And here it is – Labor has pared back a point on two-party preferred to now trail 51-49, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 7% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are a semi-regular series on important election issues (“Australian jobs and protection of local industries” being up five points on a month ago), best party to handle them (across the board improvement for Labor in the wake of the leadership change), carbon pricing (45% support the move to an ETS with 29% opposed, while support for the “tax” scheme is down to 37% support with 48% opposed compared with 43% each in May – these being relatively supportive results on account of a question which explains it’s industries that pay the tax). Sixty-two per cent said they would support a referendum on recognising Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution with only 16% opposed.

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  • 1
    don
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    From the previous thread:

    Centre, my apologies if you were being ironic.

  • 2
    confessions
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    Stephen Spencer ‏@sspencer_63 41s
    52-48 for the coalition. That should put an end to the Turnbull speculation, and maybe even an August 31 election http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/polling/kevin-rudds-resurrection-comes-to-a-halt-according-to-latest-newspoll/story-fnc6vkbc-1226683424636

    True re Turnbull, unfortunately.

  • 3
    confessions
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 37s
    #Newspoll Dealing with asylum seekers: ALP 26 (+6) L/NP 33 (-14) #auspol

  • 4
    Centre
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    Told you, Coalition leads.

    As perfectly predicted.

    Like usual :P

  • 5
    paaptsef
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    well they’re keeping Abbott

  • 6
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    52:48 probably means no Turnbull challenge now assured. Ducks lining up.

  • 7
    imacca
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Boing. Bouncy goes the Newspoll.

  • 8
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Phew! Was worried that Labor would be on top and reTurnbull would gain momentum.

    Very pleased Abbott remains.

  • 9
    jaundiced view
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    You cannot arrive at an Australian airport with no papers and seek refugee status.

    Yes you can, if you destroy them en route, forged or otherwise. But that isn’t the point anyway.

    Displaced people can arrive at an Australian airport on a visa – real, forged, or destroyed en route – and then seek asylum.

    Displaced people can arrive in Australia by boat on a visa- real, forged non-existent, and then seek asylum. Same.

    Each group at the point of arrival is in exactly the same legal position. The nature of the documentation or lack of it makes no difference at that point.

    Why is one group in exactly the same legal position kept onshore (with 20-30% found to be genuine), and taken to Villawood to be processed, while the other group is sent to buggery (94% found to be genuine)?

    Yes, the answer lies in the seat of Lindsay.

  • 10
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    From previous thread

    Sorry did a typo on your name :(

  • 11
    Centre
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    don

    The question was put forward by the Greens, not me ;)

    Rudd must campaign at his absolute best to reel in the Monkey :cool:

    Bookies, right again :shock:

  • 12
    Darren Laver
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    that Glory bloke was right!

  • 13
    cud chewer
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    Not much you can conclude about this poll.

    But you can predict with absolute certainty the way the Murdoch media will spin it.

  • 14
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    confessions

    Yes some poll pain as Boats neutralised

  • 15
    Darren Laver
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    You cannot arrive at an Australian airport with no papers and seek refugee status.

    Yes you can, if you destroy them en route, forged or otherwise. But that isn’t the point anyway.

    Displaced people can arrive at an Australian airport on a visa – real, forged, or destroyed en route – and then seek asylum.

    Displaced people can arrive in Australia by boat on a visa- real, forged non-existent, and then seek asylum. Same.

    Each group at the point of arrival is in exactly the same legal position. The nature of the documentation or lack of it makes no difference at that point.

    Why is one group in exactly the same legal position kept onshore (with 20-30% found to be genuine), and taken to Villawood to be processed, while the other group is sent to buggery (94% found to be genuine)?

    Yes, the answer lies in the seat of Lindsay.

    sorry this changed post Houston and before PNG.

  • 16
    liyana
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    Lets hope the Murdoch Press spin it as a big turn around for the LNP and that the prospect of Tony Abbott PM will scare people silly.

  • 17
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    Abbott LOTO and later election.

  • 18
    Pegasus
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    We know who they are…

    Really?

    The immigration department's internal audits show fraud rates touching 50% and reveal that it has struggled to properly identify people who were entering the country, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) said today.

    The ABC report, whose Freedom of Information request to the department took two years to be processed, published the results of its investigation today.

    The report also alleged that passport and visa fraud was happening in large numbers.

    http://www.business-standard.com/article/international/aus-audit-reveals-large-scale-fraud-of-visa-system-113072200370_1.html

  • 19
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    Psephos
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:47 pm | PERMALINK
    why do they only apply to boat arrivals?

    Two reasons.

    1. Every person who enters Australia by air does so with papers, ie, with authorisation. We know who they are and where they’ve come from. If they apply for refugee status, we can make an accurate assessment of the merits of their claim. This is not the case with people who arrive by boat, because they have either no papers or unreliable UNHCR papers which can be easily bought in Pakistan.
    2. People arriving by air have left their country legally, with a passport. Therefore, if they apply for refugee status, and we determine they are not genuine refugees, we can send them home. (We in fact send home substantial numbers of Chinese tourists and students who claim refugee status because they want to stay in Australia.) People who come by boat are very difficult to repatriate regardless of what determination we make about them, a. because we often don’t know where they’re actually from, and b. their home countries (notably Iran) won’t take them.
    3. Coming to Australia by boat is inherently dangerous, and over 1000 people have died trying to do so in the past six years. To my knowledge no-one has ever died while coming to Australia by air. And since people coming to Australia by air always have valid reasons for doing so (ie, they have a visa), we have no grounds for trying to deter them.

    OK?

    Not OK.

    All three of those explanations have nothing to do with there being too many asylum seekers in the world, and therefore we have to be cruel.

    That is the whole point. This “oh dear, there are 45 million displaced people in the world” is just a furphy as has been made abundantly clear by the inability of anyone here to explain why mode of arrival is relevant to the 45 million figure in any way.

    Ease of removal has nothing to do with the magnitude of the asylum seeker problem around the world.
    The presence of a passport has nothing to do with the magnitude of the asylum seeker problem around the world.
    The presence of people smugglers has nothing to do with the magnitude of the asylum seeker problem around the world.

  • 20
    itsthevibe
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    If I were Rudd, I would be steering the national debate away from asylum seekers from here on in. He’s dealt with the issue; now it’s time to focus on the things that actually, y’know, decide elections.

  • 21
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    Should have put money on it…

  • 22
    Darren Laver
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    Abbott to stay put, gives Govt option of 12 Oct election rather than a freezing one like last time in August!

  • 23
    jaundiced view
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    Good article by Loewenstein:

    Australia's deal with Papua New Guinea is vulture capitalism at its worst

    The problem has never been that Australia gives too much aid; it’s that we’re throwing huge amounts of money to avoid a failed state on our doorstep by backing rapacious mining interests and overpaid consultants. After decades of Australian aid, PNG’s rates of infant mortality, sexual violence against women and corruption have never been worse.

    None of this concerns both major sides of Australian politics. For more than a decade, they’ve outsourced the most unpleasant tasks of refugee processing to largely unaccountable private firms (British multinationals Serco and G4S being the most obvious), and Rudd’s latest moves will inevitably enrich even more of them.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/22/vulture-capitalism-papua-new-guinea-australia

  • 24
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    itsthevibe

    Totally agree. I expect MSM and LNP to keep the boat drum banging

  • 25
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    itsthevibe
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:58 pm | PERMALINK
    If I were Rudd, I would be steering the national debate away from asylum seekers from here on in. He’s dealt with the issue; now it’s time to focus on the things that actually, y’know, decide elections.

    …like whether voters trust anything the ALP says from now on?

  • 26
    sprocket_
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    Looks like Parliament will be coming back on the 20th August.

    Some high stakes for a number of reasons, but suspecting that tactics have been thought through already.

    And perhaps the Libs get one final,chance to rid themselves of Albatross Abbott.

  • 27
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    JV presumably because the people who choose to come by boat cant get a visa to come to Australia. If they don’t have a visa they don’t get to board the plane so it’s a moot point. If they could get a visa it would be safer and much cheaper to come by plane. But they dont.

  • 28
    Mick77
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    Centre

    You & I are the resident geniuses. It was just so clear that Rudd has peaked or at best levelled and the only way for him now is DOWN, particularly as this PNG nonsense continues to unravel. And maybe just maybe the hate for him among Greens will mean a far greater percentage of them will (secretly) preference Libs. I repeat for posterity what I’ve consistently said (and it’s a lonely place): Rudd will get smashed by Abbott, no less than Gillard would have been because he’s a fraud – all talk.

  • 29
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    sprocket

    Yes introduce Climate Amendment to flush Abbott out

  • 30
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Looks like we’ve hit the Peak Rudd sugar rush.

    It’s all downhill from now for Labor.. bye bye Ruddy the Duddy

  • 31
    Centre
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    The confidence isn’t there Gloryc!

    Readers could have read it first :cool: you know where :P

  • 32
    Centre
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Great, I’m bracketed in same sentence as Mick77 :(

  • 33
    confessions
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Antony Green ‏@AntonyGreenABC 3m
    New Newspoll in the Australian, Coalition 52% 2PP, ABC calculator shows comfortable victory http://bit.ly/15BDcrt #ausvotes

  • 34
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    +2 from Coalition maybe from Victoria, since the recent Newspoll from Victoria was +2 to LNP.

    But what a loss for the Coalition Party on AS Policy -14.

  • 35
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    #Newspoll Dealing with asylum seekers: ALP 26 (+6) L/NP 33 (-14) #auspol

    OK I expect Labor will improve a little on that score as well, the issue is thus dead for the Coalition. They have nothing else except to attack Rudd and whine about the AS issue.

    Rudd has ticked that box pretty well for Labor and the future. I would love him to have something out of Malaysia or elsewhere just to put the icing on this AS cake, a bit later in the show.

    Turnbull is now out of the picture and the Coalition will feel relieved, rightly or wrongly. This still could be just a dead heat as before, and I expect it is given that Labor and Rudd have done pretty well this past weak, no reason to go backwards.

    Rudd has the luxury maybe of taking a little more time working over the Coalition on other issues now. I think all the while Labor is picking up votes bit by bit.

    Interesting thing will be Qld. Wonder what the internal polling is saying.

  • 36
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    And perhaps the Libs get one final,chance to rid themselves of Albatross Abbott.

    You Labor supporters sure are desperate to get rid of Abbott.

    Abbott has taken out:

    2 Speakers of the House
    2 Sitting Prime Ministers
    2 Independents
    Craig Thomson
    About a Dozen Ministers

    He’s a 1 Man Labor Killing Machine.

  • 37
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    Well, that should kill any talk of an August 31 poll…

  • 38
    alias
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    Interesting that a big shift in AS sentiment towards Labor and away from LNP still results in a 2 point TPP gain for LNP.

  • 39
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    We’ll call you Centre Mick from now on Centre or CM for short.

  • 40
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    He’s a 1 Man Labor Killing Machine.

    Got a bit of a man crush there?

  • 41
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    About a Dozen Ministers

    Actually, only 3 of the original 20 from Gillards post 2010 Cabinet have remained unscathed.

    The other 17 have resigned, been sacked, left and then come back, or stayed on but said they were leaving at the election!!!!

  • 42
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    It’s a bit of a worry Carey.

  • 43
    the spectator
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    perfect this is the scenario that Rudd wanted all along get the policies bedded down go to G20 look PM material ie everything Abbott is not and no rush now and go in Oct. there will likely be an interest rate cut in aug or sept. the best thing is it ensures Abbott remains in place. best thing for the ALP.

  • 44
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    Got a bit of a man crush there?

    No, But I love his work!

    I can understand why Labor voters here are desperate to get rid of him!

  • 45
    jaundiced view
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    And since people coming to Australia by air always have valid reasons for doing so (ie, they have a visa), we have no grounds for trying to deter them.

    No they don’t. For asylum seekers their stated reason is often ostensible. They are often coming in to seek asylum on arrival, just like the boat arrivals with or without papers.

    What is the ground for trying to deter people arriving without a visa? That is not a ground under the Convention at all. It means nothing. That applies to most asylum seekers around the world. The Department is used to establishing identity and the home circumstances.

    You are left with the great furphy ‘saving lives’, which is a retro-justification overlay to hide the real reason which has been the same for over 10 years – pandering to xenophobes and racists of the One Nation demographic.

    If we really wanted to ‘save lives’ we’d have a flotilla between Indonesian exit points and CI, or we’d be paying for a processing centre at Indonesia under UN control. That is, we’d be acting on things that would actually save lives, instead of punishing successful arrivals cruelly, which costs lives, and doesn’t stop the boats.

  • 46
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    Both Sportsbet and Centrebet unmoved by the Newspoll result.this evening, suggesting the punters are ho hum either way

  • 47
    Mick77
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    Now Rudd’s got a prob. He looks in the mirror and thinks: you’re so gorgeous, wait a little longer and your subjects will love you more; OR mmm perhaps your subjects’ love has been sugarboosted and is wearing off, go now before everything unravels.
    Again you heard it here first: Rudd the meglomaniac much hated Kim-Jung-Il of the ALP, and reigning earwax eating champion of the Pacific, will delay and get wiped out by Abbott.

  • 48
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    SportsBet moved yesterday Rossmore.

  • 49
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    Betfair is $1.27 to $4.00 right now.

    That seems to have changed since yesterday…..not sure if it is Newspoll or not though…

  • 50
    Centre
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    They’ll move tomorrow Rossmore :shock:

    It’s winnable.

    Where there is Monkey :mrgreen: there is hope.

    *night

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