tip off

BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition

The Coalition pokes its nose in front after a strong showing in Newspoll and close results elsewhere.

Four new poll results have been added for the BludgerTrack aggregate this week, with Newspoll handing Labor a relatively weak result and ReachTEL, Essential Research and Morgan recording little change. The force of Newspoll has pulled the two-party preferred total 0.4% in the direction of the Coalition, which nets it a handy three seats on the national projection. The high yield is testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s projected gain of six seats from last week has been halved by a 1.8% shift on the two-party vote. Some soft polling for Labor in Tasmania has also brought them down a peg in that state, but this is cancelled out by a gain in New South Wales, where the model continues to have them on the cusp of 25 and 26. The projected total still leaves us in hung parliament territory, but with the Coalition able to govern with help from Bob Katter.

Newspoll especially has been keenly scrutinised for the effect of Friday’s asylum seeker policy announcement, but this would seem a fraught endeavour at this stage. The asylum seeker issue played badly for the government throughout last week up until Kevin Rudd’s move to seize the initiative on Friday evening, news of which would have taken a while to filter through. Nonetheless, it’s interesting to note the latest polls are solidly better for the Greens than a particularly weak batch last week, and that Labor’s primary vote is down correspondingly. This of course will mostly come out in the wash on preferences, but a refugee backlash could nonetheless be of considerable consequence in the Senate.

Usually the six Senators returned by a state at a normal half-Senate election split evenly between the parties of the left and right, but Labor’s polling under Julia Gillard was bad enough to allow for the possibility of four right, two left results in as many as three states (or perhaps four, depending on what view you take of Nick Xenophon). Now it appears that Senate battles will proceed along more familiar lines, with Labor comfortably winning two seats and fighting it out with the lead Greens candidate for a third. Labor’s starting position in such contests is its surplus vote above 28.6%, which can generally be expected to leave them in about the 7% to 10% range where the Greens vote is fluctuating at present. So while Labor’s western Sydney MPs might have cause to cheer the Prime Minister’s new policy direction, its number three Senate candidates (including incumbents Ursula Stephens in New South Wales, Mark Furner in Queensland and Lin Thorp in Tasmania) will feel less pleased.

BludgerTrack arrives with some new toys this week, starting with a new set of graphs on the sidebar which plot the polling over the four weeks since the restoration. These look a bit threadbare at present, but they will have a story to tell soon enough. The Gillard era model remains preserved for posterity at the bottom. In between is another new feature, which projects the likelihood of seat outcomes under the present BludgerTrack results. This is done by simulating 100,000 election results from the ALP seat win probabilities I have been using to determine the seat projection totals and observing the frequency of each result. The chances of majority government are currently put at 42.8%, which increases to 50.4% if you take the view that Labor will win Melbourne from Adam Bandt. Labor’s chances of holding on with the support of whoever ends up representing Denison and Melbourne are put at 28.7%.

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  • 601
    fredex
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    Ru

    Someone has forgotten that Turnbull’s fraudband cabinets need to be powered. No node are at the moment, his plan requires a new electricity grid. (Uncosted at this time).

    Such would require the building of the equivalent of an extra 3 standard coal-fired electricity power stations.
    All to be added to Mal’s so-called costings.

  • 602
    ruawake
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    BASTARDS

    BREAKING 3.20PM: The Sunshine Coast University Public Hospital is going private.

    The state government has called for expressions of interest from health service providers for the operation of the long awaited Kawana based hospital.

    Health Minister Lawrence Springborg said the decision followed an analysis of alternative modes of delivery compiled by accountancy firm KPMG.

    "SCUH is a brand-new facility, the first hospital to inaugurate tertiary health service delivery in a large and fast growing catchment anywhere in Australia for 20 years or more," Mr Springborg said in a written statement.

    No University will touch it Springborg, they have all told you they are not interested, no specialists, no nurses, no students. Health LNP style. Grrr :(

  • 603
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 4:44 pm | Permalink

    How far away from Australia’s shoreline does someone have to be to be outside our area of responsibility?

    I know that if you’re in trouble on the open seas, it is a passing ship’s duty to go to your aid, but…

  • 604
    Tricot
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

    As I have often said, the conservatives don’t do compassion very well, and the tears tend to be ingenuous.

  • 605
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    Malcolm Turnbull clarifies that an NBN connection will cost some thousands under the Libs.

    David Speers ‏@David_Speers 8m Turnbull: if you want fibre to home (under Coalition), yes charge of some thousands of dollars…we haven’t set rate for it…not $5k.

  • 606
    fredex
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    Which reminds me of this re NBN.

    Back in ’07 I took a stint on the phones for my rural ALP candidate and had several people ask about the respective party broadband policies.
    So I would refer then to the party websites for such.
    But ….
    With the COALition site I suggested they click on the icon at the bottom of the screen which took them to the next screen in which the companies concerned gave the details of their plans, including maps.
    A further suggestion was to click on the icon at the bottom of that screen, which took you to yet another screen in which the companies’ detailed their clarifications, in small print, as to the probability of their service actually working.
    If there was a building, a large tree or clump of trees, a hill, any sizable obstruction at all between their tower and line of sight to the house – no or limited service.

    Then I asked the person on the phone how that effected them.

    I reckon a dozen or so people may have decided not to vote for the Lib candidate because of that – and the associated question of integrity.

  • 607
    Dee
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    What was Rabbott asked at his presser that angered his supporters??

  • 608
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    People who vote informal do nothing positive for democracy. They dishonour all those people around the world who have fought(and are are still fighting) for the cherished right to vote, often at great personal cost.

  • 609
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

    ruawake 602

    Sunshine Coast hospital sounds depressingly like the Yes Minister episode about the new St Edmonds hospital that had 500 adminsitrators but no patients and no medical staff because the budget had all been spent on the administrators.

    The Sunshine Coast now has the nation’s 10th largest urban population, larger than Hobart, with many over 65. Yet it has no major public hospital, (and no passenger rail link to the capital ciy, despite one being promised by wayne goss in 1995). Though beautiful, it must be the worst serviced urban area in Australia. Shame Campbell Newman, and previously shame Anna Bligh and Peter Beatty. Slipper and Somylay have not done much for their long suffering residents either.

  • 610
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    spur212@593

    Very good ad by the ALP.

    Has that little bit of Australian pride at the end that makes any rebuttal seem unpatriotic

    Looks like the adults are back in charge. ;)

  • 611
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    Just seen a new ad addressing Australia’s low debt.

    Nice and simple.

  • 612
    Hugoaugogo
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    Fran (578),

    I don’t particularly disagree with much of what you say, and your debating abilities to deconstruct my comments are impressive.

    However, I do note that you have not addressed the issue of the fact that people coming via boat and claiming asylum are not fleeing directly from persecution – their lives in Indonesia and Malaysia are without doubt a misery, but they are not being directly persecuted there. This appears to be inconvenient fact that that is routinely ignored in this debate.

    Also, I’m sure you are aware that the Refugee Convention of itself does not have much legal weight in Australia, and what it does have is mainly as a result of being incorporated into Australian law.

    In any event, this is an issue with a great deal of heat but very little light, and I think all sides would do well listen a little more and talk less (myself included).

  • 613
    This little black duck
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    Mike Kelly told Wonder Woman that he would be happy to be Defence Minister IFF:

    . he won Eden-Monaro,
    . the government is returned,
    . caucus makes him a minister, and
    . Kevvie gives him Defence.

  • 614
    ruawake
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    Socrates

    The Nambour Hospital is the major hospital, When the new Kawana one was proposed it was specially designed with consultation and input from clinicians who would move there from Nambour.

    This crap from Springborg (Newman wouldn’t know if he was on fire) means all that consultation and design work is flushed down the crapper.

  • 615
    izatso?
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

    DEE.
    Mr Abbott, one of your chief punkwallahs has been charged with DUI. What thoughts Numpty ?

    …… cue honking.

    or WTTE.

  • 616
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

    ‘ Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

    So, informal it is going to be.

    We Informals reckon that 2-4 per cent Informal Party vote ought to be enough to persuade the political classes that honesty, integrity, respect for others and a committment to values, principles and policies is the adult thing to be.

    Your kidding aren’t you?. Besides the obvious flaw in thinking people who vote informal are all doing it just to teach the rest of us a lesson and not just because they are stupid, why would any party bother pandering to anyone who will not vote against them? Voting against a party or at least threatening to has the biggest influence on parties.Voters in marginal seats have worked that out.

    Informal voters vote themselves out of relevance. That is of course your right and I’m happy for you all to do so.’

    There are various reasons why people vote informal. What we are hoping is that enough people vote informal and write in on their ballot papers why they are doing so: the lack of leaders with honesty, integrity, respect for others and committment to values, principles and policies.

    This is not about teaching the rest of you a lesson.

    It is about teaching the political classes that lying, cynicism, a lack of integrity, a lack of respect for others and a complete lack of committment to values, prinicples and policies is compltely unacceptable.

    Voting informal is not about the outcomes of this election. It is about the outcomes of subsequent elections.

    If enough people vote informal because the choice of leaders is a non-choice between compltely unsatisfactory persons, then we believe this will lead to an impact on the sort of leaders that parties choose.

    We are not threatening anyone with anything. Nor are we asking any party to pander to anyone or anything. We are against pandering and against threats.

    We are simply saying that if you want our vote you are going to have to demonstrate some fairly basic positive standards of public behaviour.

    That is not to much to ask, surely?

  • 617
    Tom Hawkins
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    This is not about teaching the rest of you a lesson.

    It is about teaching the political classes that ...

    It’s not going to teach anyone a lesson. Your vote (or lack of a vote) will be seen as another example of how stupid many of our citizens are when it comes to something as simple and straight forward as putting numbers in a box.

    You seem to think it will be looked on as a noble act. It won’t.

  • 618
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

    zoomster@594

    MTBW

    Yes, the last two elections have seen the PM chose the ministry, but one of the changes Rudd put forward – and, as far as I’m aware, caucus accepted – was that caucus would appoint the Ministry from now on.

    So Rudd promising someone a Ministry goes against his own declared position.

    The pre-Rudd position was that the Ministry was elected by Caucus and then the PM allocated portfolios.
    I believe this will be restored.

  • 619
    kakuru
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    You seem to think it will be looked on as a noble act. It won’t.

    Agreed, Tom H. Voting informal is the protest you have when you can’t be bothered to have a protest.

  • 620
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    TT

    ‘People who vote informal do nothing positive for democracy. They dishonour all those people around the world who have fought(and are are still fighting) for the cherished right to vote, often at great personal cost.’

    tsk, tsk, reductio ad dihonouring the fighting man. How absurdment.

    The truth is that people who vote for people who are democracy thieves are themselves damaging democracy.

    Our soldiers were not fighting for our ‘cherished right to vote’ in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

    Ask an Australian fighting person if they are fighting in Afghanistan in order to ensure that Australia has enough democracy to elect a sociopath or a narcissist they would say, quite rightly, ‘Are you effin crazy mate?’

    Vote 1 The Informal Party.

  • 621
    kakuru
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    There are various reasons why people vote informal.

    Mostly just one reason. They couldn’t give a XXXX.

    Stop pitching your mental lassitude as a noble cause.

  • 622
    davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

    Some people may vote informal because they do give a XXXX and believe neither major party deserves their preference.

  • 623
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    ‘TH

    This is not about teaching the rest of you a lesson.

    It is about teaching the political classes that …

    It’s not going to teach anyone a lesson. Your vote (or lack of a vote) will be seen as another example of how stupid many of our citizens are when it comes to something as simple and straight forward as putting numbers in a box.

    You seem to think it will be looked on as a noble act. It won’t.’

    It doesn’t really matter what most people, including most people on Bludger, think about all us informal voters in the comming election.

    The main impact will be on the people who choose the people who choose the party leader and hence the prime minister. Will they continue to opt for lying, cynicism, lack of respect for others and a lack of committment to values, principles and policies as being the ‘grown-up’ thing?

    Do the right thing by decency, honesty, respect, integrity and a committment to values, principles and policies. Don’t waste your vote by voting for the contemptuous bastards who would say anything and do anything for political power.

    Vote 1 The Informal Party.

  • 624
    Tom Hawkins
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    Some people may vote informal because they do give a XXXX and believe neither major party deserves their preference.

    But they are kidding themselves if they think doing so will be noticed as actually giving a XXXX. They will simply be grouped along with all of the dickheads who can barely hold a pencil or who wear a superman costume to the booth.

    It’s like the idiots who enter Jedi Warrior as their religion on a census paper. All that shows is that they are immature and/or stupid.

  • 625
    kakuru
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    Some people may vote informal because they do give a XXXX and believe neither major party deserves their preference.

    If “some people” believe so strongly, they should get up on their hind legs and run themselves. Sh*t or get off the pot.

  • 626
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    There are few people about whom I would say such a thing, but the world is a better place today with the death of Derek Percy overnight.

    For those who don’t remember, Percy was convicted of the murder of a young girl and linked to the death or disappearance of a total of 9 children.

    At times like this I really wish I believed in a hell where such a person would be adequately punished.

  • 627
    davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

    If we abolished preferential voting or made it optional preference then people could cast a valid vote for other than effectively one of the majors.

  • 628
    kakuru
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

    But they are kidding themselves if they think doing so will be noticed as actually giving a XXXX. They will simply be grouped along with all of the dickheads who can barely hold a pencil or who wear a superman costume to the booth.

    Yep, agreed. :-D Especially the ‘dickheads’ bit.

  • 629
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    karkaru

    ‘ There are various reasons why people vote informal.

    Mostly just one reason. They couldn’t give a XXXX.

    Stop pitching your mental lassitude as a noble cause.’

    Who said it was noble? Not me. I would pitch it as quite ordinary stuff, the sort of stuff I encourage in my children and grandchildren as being ordinary and normal: decency, honesty, integrity. Isn’t that what you do with your children? And if it is good enough to expect from our children isn’t it good enough to expect from our politicians?

    Are you really going to accept that gimme the job or I’ll wreck the joint is a reasonable policy proposition?

    Don’t give your personal support these wreckers by giving them your legitimacy.

    Vote 1 Informal Party.

  • 630
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    kakuru@619


    You seem to think it will be looked on as a noble act. It won’t.


    Agreed, Tom H. Voting informal is the protest you have when you can’t be bothered to have a protest.

    Your response should be:
    IGNORE THE BORE

  • 631
    kakuru
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    davidwh

    If we abolished preferential voting or made it optional preference then people could cast a valid vote for other than effectively one of the majors.

    Lack of preferential voting in the US helped Bush beat Gore in 2000, because Nader’s Greens split the progressive vote. No thanks.

  • 632
    davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    Personally I would never intentionally vote informal however we do live in a democracy and an informal vote is allowed so fair enough. BW is entitled to that option.

  • 633
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    The advert was just put on 24

    Hockey to comment. He admitted factually accurate then tried to dismiss it as spin.

    Problem for Hockey is of course facts are not spin.

    Now debate on Caputal Hill is debt.

    Well done Labor the economy as debate about time

  • 634
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

    kakaru

    ‘ Some people may vote informal because they do give a XXXX and believe neither major party deserves their preference.

    If “some people” believe so strongly, they should get up on their hind legs and run themselves. Sh*t or get off the pot.’

    Well, we are doing something positive: we are voting informal. By doing that we are saying to the parties that neither Rudd nor Abbott is fit to be prime minister of Australia. They are unfit because they are dishonest. They lack integrity. They demonstrate daily contempt for their listeners. They are not committed to values, principles or policies.

    The message to their parties is clear: if you can’t pick a leader with the right qualities, you are not getting a default vote.

    Don’t just sit there and vote for these democracy thieves.

    Vote 1 Informal Party.

  • 635
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    @guytaur/633

    They must now tackle NBN Myths as well about cost.

  • 636
    kakuru
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    Personally I would never intentionally vote informal however we do live in a democracy and an informal vote is allowed so fair enough. BW is entitled to that option.

    Yep BW is entitled to his opinion. So am I. On using informal voting as a protest, in my opinion this is a stupid idea.

  • 637
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    btw, BW.

    I protested in the last election, guess where we landed up? Minority Goverment.

  • 638
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    davidwh@632

    Personally I would never intentionally vote informal however we do live in a democracy and an informal vote is allowed so fair enough. BW is entitled to that option.

    Yes, it is just another way for him to demonstrate the poverty of his intellect.

    But best to…
    IGNORE THE BORE

  • 639
    kakuru
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    Don’t just sit there and vote for these democracy thieves.

    Vote 1 Informal Party.

    How is this different from doing nothing at all?

  • 640
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    On the Mike Kelly thing Caucus met yesterday and Mr Rudd probably asked at the time.

    Its a great appointment given Mr Kelly’s history and familiarity with defence.

  • 641
    davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    The problem in Australia is that other than in the Senate it’s difficult to lodge an effective protest vote.

  • 642
    Tricot
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    Andrew Probyn opined that if Rudd did “a run through the West” this week, the election will be called soon.

    He came to this conclusion on the basis of previous “swings through the West” by Federal leaders.

    On the other hand, Rudd has hosed down August 31 as a date for election.

    It will be interesting to see what happens.

  • 643
    MTBW
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

    Rua

    Thanks for that I am glad that is happening.

    Zoomster

    So Rudd promising someone a Ministry goes against his own declared position.

    Maybe Rudd is just putting a proposition to him.

    I am not the least surprised though that you would have to highlight a point where you could give Rudd a backhander.

  • 644
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

    One of the terrible things about our democracy is the vast number of people who are totally disenchanged and who are totally disaffected by the way our democracy operates.

    I meet them every day – all sorts of ordinary, decent people who have basically given up on the pollies. You will have met them in droves, yourselves, I am sure.

    Inside the bubble the acolytes of one or the other of the morally corrupt leaders still debate furiously about the superior benefits of one or the other democracy thieves.

    Outside the bubble, people in their millions have basically opted out. Huge numbers avoid registering for the vote. Large numbers don’t bother to vote at all. Many of the remainder resignedly try to pick what they guess to be the lesser of two main evils.

    I encourage all those disaffected people to officially opt out by marking their ballot papers to demonstrate that they expect basic human standards of integrity from their political leadership. The sorts of standards they would to inculcate in their children.

    Vote 1 Informal Party.

  • 645
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

    davidwh@641

    The problem in Australia is that other than in the Senate it’s difficult to lodge an effective protest vote.

    How do you reach that conclusion?

    Preferential voting allows you to protest by voting for fringe candidates by way of protest and then still participate in choosing between the two parties of government.

    You need some further discussion with your mum and sister.

  • 646
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

    Turnbull has invested money in the French NBN which is the same as the Labor Govt NBN…FTTH.

    He’s happy to invest is own money in FTTH but won’t support investing in Australia to have FTTH

  • 647
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

    rua

    I am aware that the Nambour hospital is the current major public hospital in the region. In terms of its size and location though, I would have thought it was totally inadequate to service the main urban population stretching along the coast from caloundra to Noosa, which must have a population of well over 200,000 by now, compared to less than 20,000 in Nambour.

    The plan to move the clinicians from Nambour to Kawana was sensible, and I agree that the Newman decision is regrettable, and a waste. However there is a lot of blame to go around on this one.

    There has been a long history of federal and State governments on both sides not funding planned and required services and infastructure in the area. The hospital was identified as needed in 1995. Neither Federal (Keating, Howard, Rudd) nor State (Borbidge, Beatty, Bligh) governments would confirm when it would open. Bligh did commit to an opening date, but it was not fully funded and is now two years late. Meanhwile much of the capitla funding went to the Ipswich funding.

    The same was true of the rail line – planned in the CamCos(?) study in about 1998(?) from memory.

    It remains the largest urban area in Australia with no major hospital or public transport serrvice. Saying the Nambour hospital services the coast is like saying that Queenbeyan hospital services Canberra.

  • 648
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

    karkaru

    ‘Boerwar

    Don’t just sit there and vote for these democracy thieves.

    Vote 1 Informal Party.

    How is this different from doing nothing at all?’

    I agree with our implied position that many people are showing their despair with the leaders by doing nothing: not registering, not voting or not filling in their ballot papers.

    This is different because a little message needs to go onto the ballot for the scrutineers to note and report back to party HQ.

    Vote 1 Informal Party.

  • 649
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

    @644

    IGNORE THE BORE

  • 650
    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

    @648

    IGNORE THE BORE

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