tip off

BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition

The Coalition pokes its nose in front after a strong showing in Newspoll and close results elsewhere.

Four new poll results have been added for the BludgerTrack aggregate this week, with Newspoll handing Labor a relatively weak result and ReachTEL, Essential Research and Morgan recording little change. The force of Newspoll has pulled the two-party preferred total 0.4% in the direction of the Coalition, which nets it a handy three seats on the national projection. The high yield is testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s projected gain of six seats from last week has been halved by a 1.8% shift on the two-party vote. Some soft polling for Labor in Tasmania has also brought them down a peg in that state, but this is cancelled out by a gain in New South Wales, where the model continues to have them on the cusp of 25 and 26. The projected total still leaves us in hung parliament territory, but with the Coalition able to govern with help from Bob Katter.

Newspoll especially has been keenly scrutinised for the effect of Friday’s asylum seeker policy announcement, but this would seem a fraught endeavour at this stage. The asylum seeker issue played badly for the government throughout last week up until Kevin Rudd’s move to seize the initiative on Friday evening, news of which would have taken a while to filter through. Nonetheless, it’s interesting to note the latest polls are solidly better for the Greens than a particularly weak batch last week, and that Labor’s primary vote is down correspondingly. This of course will mostly come out in the wash on preferences, but a refugee backlash could nonetheless be of considerable consequence in the Senate.

Usually the six Senators returned by a state at a normal half-Senate election split evenly between the parties of the left and right, but Labor’s polling under Julia Gillard was bad enough to allow for the possibility of four right, two left results in as many as three states (or perhaps four, depending on what view you take of Nick Xenophon). Now it appears that Senate battles will proceed along more familiar lines, with Labor comfortably winning two seats and fighting it out with the lead Greens candidate for a third. Labor’s starting position in such contests is its surplus vote above 28.6%, which can generally be expected to leave them in about the 7% to 10% range where the Greens vote is fluctuating at present. So while Labor’s western Sydney MPs might have cause to cheer the Prime Minister’s new policy direction, its number three Senate candidates (including incumbents Ursula Stephens in New South Wales, Mark Furner in Queensland and Lin Thorp in Tasmania) will feel less pleased.

BludgerTrack arrives with some new toys this week, starting with a new set of graphs on the sidebar which plot the polling over the four weeks since the restoration. These look a bit threadbare at present, but they will have a story to tell soon enough. The Gillard era model remains preserved for posterity at the bottom. In between is another new feature, which projects the likelihood of seat outcomes under the present BludgerTrack results. This is done by simulating 100,000 election results from the ALP seat win probabilities I have been using to determine the seat projection totals and observing the frequency of each result. The chances of majority government are currently put at 42.8%, which increases to 50.4% if you take the view that Labor will win Melbourne from Adam Bandt. Labor’s chances of holding on with the support of whoever ends up representing Denison and Melbourne are put at 28.7%.

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  • 51
    zoomster
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:13 am | Permalink

    with legislation passed 1946-9, 7 million Aussies agreed to absorb an average of 100,000 refugees/ homeless/ migrants each year for 10 years

    Right. And presently we take over 200,000.

    And the post war refugees were subjected to rigorous off shore processing (I know, my father was one of them).

  • 52
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:14 am | Permalink

    BK

    Of course they do not cut the mustard. People are drowning in their droves. How is that profecting their rights? Dead people have no rights to protect.
    Abbott and his turning the boats back when safe is ridiculous. The boats are sinking as it is. Imagine trying to turn these boats back. The Greens and the Coalition are talking fiction. They should be ashamed of themselves

  • 53
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    confessions@34


    dave:

    The simple reality is that newspapers never really adjusted their operating model to accommodate the internet and our increasing reliance on it.

    They are also being outflanked by the growth of social media. I was surprised to learn the other day that more and more 20-somethings get their ‘news’ from their Facebook timeline.

    Taking Kohlers article a bit further, I agree with those who say we have seen across the board substitution of journalism for opinion in almost all leading issues facing our society and what has flowed from there is profound distrust of the media in print and electronic in general, not only Fairfax.

    Is opinion worth $1.2 Billion ? I don’t think so. I haven’t even mentioned what I believe is the medias biggest problem – people don’t trust them and its becoming more intrenched.

    Where do they go, what do they do when they are not trusted and they are increasingly pushing, trying to sell opinion?

    What happens is what we are doing, taking whatever is on offer for free and refusing to support them in anyway.

    Unless they pull a huge miracle out of a hat, they are on course for bankruptcy. If Gina picks up the whole lot for a song the outcome will probably be worse.

    The LOMBARD effect. (Lots Of Money But Are Real Dickheads).

    Who are other potential buyers of Fairfax ? Not many just a couple of billionaires who want more power to match their billions, but don’t what to pay very much for a media outlet anyway.

    The Australian only survives because murdoch has been able to make sure his shareholders keep bankrolling it. Murdoch’s tabloids have pretty good advertising income streams which compliments its readers preferred interests, ie sport, sport and more sport.

  • 54
    Edward Boyce
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    There are some discrepancies between the bar chart and the table of implied seat result probabilities. e.g. the Coalition 75+ probability in the table is 45.0%, but the bar for Coalition 75 goes to 32% while the bar for Coalition 74 goes to 45%. The bar chart and the table match for Labor.

  • 55
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    zoomster
    And they were put into accomodation such as this.
    http://tinyurl.com/lbcnvrj

  • 56
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:19 am | Permalink

    The only people telling asylum seekers getting on a boat will get you to Australia are people smugglers and Abbott front benchers. #auspol

    — Tony Burke (@Tony_Burke) July 23, 2013

  • 57
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    Under the Abbott policy
    How many times does the same boat get turned back?

    How many times do the Navy tow a boat back into international waters only to see it sail back into Aust waters before something else is done?

  • 58
    Kinkajou
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    PNG is a masterstroke of bastadry….but…everyone insisted!
    Greens and Libs conspired to sink Malaysia. people importers ramp up their business to blow up Nauru and Manus options.
    Now they have all of PNG to fill up with no overflow to Australia. The prospect of settling in a third world black and violent culture should reduce the saleability of the boat product but I dare say there’ll be more rioting, lipsewing, hungerstriking to come in the immediate future.

  • 59
    zoomster
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    BK

    At Yallourn…

    ‘The new DP arrivals were put in tents, two per tent…the tents each had a raised wooden floor…The new arrivals thought this was all a bit backward…described tent living as ‘cold, wet and miserable’…When frosts set in, the men would wake to find frost on their blankets.’

  • 60
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    AA
    How DARE you question an Abbott utterance!

  • 61
    my say
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    ========

    Tony Burke ‏@Tony_Burke 19m
    The only people telling asylum seekers getting on a boat will get you to Australia are people smugglers and Abbott front benchers. #auspol

    ===================================

  • 62
    sohar
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    Libtweeta probably won’t retweet Tony Burke’s tweet.

  • 63
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:40 am | Permalink

    Abbott will support the continuation of the FBT tax rort while removing the superannuation co-contribution to 3.7million low paid workers.

    I doubt any of them are able to take advantage of this tax rort.

  • 64
    citizen
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    Tony Burke ‏@Tony_Burke 19m
    The only people telling asylum seekers getting on a boat will get you to Australia are people smugglers and Abbott front benchers. #auspol

    It’s taken a couple of days but the government is now clearly blaming Abbott & co for boats still coming. Every time a boat is intercepted (or, more tragically, sinks as this morning) the finger will be pointed at Abbott and his backers in the media.

    The Tandberg cartoon today is brilliant in its simplicity for conveying this message.

  • 65
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    Of course they do not cut the mustard. People are drowning in their droves. How is that profecting their rights? Dead people have no rights to protect.

    So you finally agree Howard was right with the Pacific Solution… looks like we are finally making progress

  • 66
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    Sean

    Can you get it through your thick scone. mThe pacific solution has been in effect for 12 months, and it is not working.

  • 67
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    Victoria,

    Labor sabotaged the Pacific Solution by only sending 2% of people there and 98% onshore.

    You then understand why it’s not working under Labor especially when they use gutless weasel words like “You run the risk of going to Nauru”.

    Oooooohhh! Run the Risk! Must have made the people smugglers and boatpeople shake in their boots.

  • 68
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    ST

    With all due respect, you are a total idiot

  • 69
    PeeBee
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    Sean, the majority of people sent to Nauru during Howard’s time landed up in Australia which is the direct opposite of what the PNG policy is.

  • 70
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    @Sean/67

    If that were the case, then what was the Temporary Visas for? Under John Howard Solution?

  • 71
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:02 am | Permalink

    Victoria,

    No you are being silly. The difference between Gillard’s Pacific Solution and Howards Pacific Solution is that people actually went to Howards Pacific Solution.

    Only 2% of boat arrivals went to Gillards Pacific Solution and thats why it is a complete failure. You don’t put the Labor kids in charge of making the adult decisions it seems.

    BTW, Howard never took advice from an “expert refugee panel” to make his decisions, he and his caucus made the decisions he didn’t outsource it like a complete Noob. May I also point out that the “expert refugee panel” Gillard set up have never had to stop the boats before, so they aren’t actually experts in anything… just a bunch of guys having a talkfest around the table.

    If Labor wanted to talk to an expert refugee panel on how to stop the boats they should have given Ruddock, Vanstone and Howard a call… they actually have an on the record history of stopping boats, not a couple of bleeding hearts from Melbourne.

  • 72
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:03 am | Permalink

    Sean

    You are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.

  • 73
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    Grrr.
    I try to get away from stupidity on Twitter and get much the same here. I don’t know how people like Craig Emerson cope with the rubbish tweets they have to up up with.

  • 74
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    Sean, the majority of people sent to Nauru during Howard’s time landed up in Australia which is the direct opposite of what the PNG policy is.

    Not correct, less than 40% were granted resettlement visas for Australia
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Solution

  • 75
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    up – put of course

  • 76
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:09 am | Permalink

    @Sean/74

    I raise you:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporary_protection_visa

  • 77
    PeeBee
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:12 am | Permalink

    Thanks Sean for the correction. I should have said, ‘the highest percentage’ rather than ‘majority’.

    Howere the point I was making is that the PNG policy is different to the Pacific Solution and therefore does not indicate that it was the correct policy which I understand is your contention.

  • 78
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    Kinkajou,

    You seem to have summed up the essence of the issue. I’ve always believed Labor would fight for a better solution than putting innocent people in danger simply to appease the rabid mob. But, I was wrong. The lure of maintaining political office is far more important than principles and decency these days.

    Of course the usual suspects will pretend that no one is going to PNG or that they are queue jumpers or that they are religious terrorists in disguise etc. and this is the only way.

    Why would I want to vote for this mish mash of scared, weird little guys who are too frightened to advocate bold good policy and especially petrified of public opinion.

    There has to be a better way and I humbly await the rise of someone who is not afraid of their shadow and the re emergence of Labor as a Party that seeks to defend the weak, the poor and the under privileged.

  • 79
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    Good Morning

    I still find it amazing that australians feel responsible for people drowning off the coast of Java. ABC reporter in Indonesia saying about a kilometre away from where he was standing.

    That says something good about the Australian character despite the fact politicians have been ramping up the fear of others on the issue.

  • 80
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    The problem with Labors boatpeople policy isn’t that it wouldn’t work.. it’s that the Australian people don’t trust Labor to both implement it and KEEP it, after the election.

    Labor has a now obvious track record of talking tough on boats before an election, but then being the best friends the people smugglers have ever had after the election.

    Rudd before 2007 Election “We will turn back the boats”
    Rudd after 2007 Election: Dumped Pacific Solution, TPV’s and every other measure to stop the boats

    Gillard before 2010 Election: “We will send all boatpeople to East Timor for processing!”
    Gillard after 2010 Election: Oops, forgot to pick up the Phone to the President of Nauru before making my unilateral announcement! Lets dither for years and do nothing. Oh wait Abbott is hammering me on boats, how but my illegal brainfart of Malaysia?

    Now we got Rudd doing the same pony-trick and quite frankly I think the punters have coined on that Labor talks tough on boats before the election, but after the election can’t be trusted.

    It’s one of the reasons why voters won’t be voting Labor even if they like their boatpeople policy, they can’t be trusted.

  • 81
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    @donnamulhearn: The #Nauru Riot: staff condemn cruel & degrading conditions in public statement, see: http://t.co/gZznyfFYUU @antloewenstein @Wendy_Bacon

  • 82
    PeeBee
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    GG, I am glad to see you stick up for the ‘weak, the poor and the underprivileged’ asylum seekers. I understand that you will not want them to board leaky boats to come to Oz, so how many do you think we should fly in every year?

  • 83
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    @Sean/80

    Now your back to your usual self, It wouldn’t work Under Labor, and the trust issue.

    Paint getting dry yet?

  • 84
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Whether they drown 1 km from the coast of Java or Australia, the point is that these people were on their way to Australia to seek asylum.
    What is your point?

  • 85
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    The Pope’s driver is not infallible, it seems.

  • 86
    PeeBee
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Guytaur, excellent that the ‘staff’ have come out with that statement. It could not be bettered timed because the AS seeking to board boats in Indo may now have second thoughts.

    Do you think this information has been held back by the ALP until now to give their new policy the maximum impact?

  • 87
    MTBW
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Tony Burke is great on this issue as I said yesterday he has never impressed me greatly but he is coming into his own on asylum seekers.

    He is clear concise and very effective.

    There have been reports of another refugee boat going down with one hundred people on board this morning.

  • 88
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    BTW I have to make the point. Conditions in the camp are a DIAC problem. I think Labor has to act decisively to fix the problem or legal challenges will see the end of offshore.

    A good start is to allow media access privacy claims by DIAC does not cut it. We allow media access to prisons.

  • 89
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    Mickey is taking the mickey, and as much as $4 million, out of CA.

    Fair enough. His record is somewhat superior to that of Boof.

  • 90
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    victoria

    My point was the good character of Australians. It was not a comment on the policies brought about to address the issue

  • 91
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    Tony Burke is apparently going to see the claims himself.

  • 92
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    I see that the the Bludger Compassion Police are out and about.

  • 93
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    zoid

    Yes. Then he can allow media access amongst other reform of DIAC culture

  • 94
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    Those Greens: always playing the Compassion Card.

  • 95
    jaundiced view
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    For fellow posters angry at the outrageous Manus Is dumping policy, there are many problems with it – here are 10 of them.

    Let’s hope it falls over in a political conflagration out of which we see a new ethical and humanitarian approach in the spirit and legality of the Refugee Convention and Article 14 of the Universal Declaration on Human Rights.

    Just can’t see this as more than a misguided short-term election ploy.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-24/harris-rimmer-the-top-10-mistakes-in-rudds-png-solution/4838586

  • 96
    MTBW
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    zoidlord

    You are correct!

  • 97
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    Media access to the various Australian prison systems is variable but is never, ever unfettered.

  • 98
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    I see bw denigrating those that want people to be treated as people still

  • 99
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    @jv/95

    Your not helping the situation, your part of the problem.

  • 100
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    bw

    I never said it was. DIAC wants no media access.

    This is a culture Labor inherited from Howard.

    The same department that deported an Australian citizen

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