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Galaxy: 50-50

Contrary to talk of stalled momentum for Kevin Rudd after a relatively weak Newspoll, a new Galaxy poll has Labor's primary vote with a four in front and a dead heat on two-party preferred.

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GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll in tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids has two-party preferred at 50-50, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 44% for the Coalition. This compares with a 51-49 lead for the Coalition at the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor up two on the primary vote and the Coalition steady. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J fills the blanks: “Greens Primary for this poll is 9. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in handling the issue of asylum seekers? Rudd Labor 40, Abbott Coalition 38. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in tackling climate change? Rudd Labor 45, Abbott Coalition 31 Which of the two party leaders do you believe has the best vision for the future? Rudd 46, Abbott 36. July 23-25. 1015 sample.

We also have the Launceston Examiner reporting ReachTEL polls of 600 respondents in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons show the Liberals continuing to lead in all three, although details provided in the article are sketchy.

UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham has kindly passed on results of the ReachTEL poll of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. The polls were conducted on Thursday from respective sample sizes are 626, 659 and 617, for margins of error of around 4%. The results unusually feature personal ratings for both the Labor incumbents and Liberal candidates, which show a) implausibly high recognition ratings for all concerned (only 1.5% of Braddon respondents had never heard of their Liberal candidate, former state MP Brett Whiteley), b) surprisingly weak results for the incumbents, and c) remarkable uniformity from electorate to the next.

Bass (Labor 6.7%): Geoff Lyons (Labor) 34.7%, Andrew Nikolic (Liberal) 48.9%, Greens 9.4%. Two party preferred: 54.0%-46.0% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 50.6%, Abbott 49.4%. Geoff Lyons: 25.6%-39.8%-30.3% (favourable-neutral-unfavourable). Andrew Nikolic: 43.3%-24.0%-24.6%.

Braddon (Labor 7.5%): Sid Sidebottom (Labor) 34.6%, Brett Whiteley (Liberal) 51.3%, Greens 7.4%. Two party preferred: 56.8%-43.2% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 51.2%, Abbott 48.8%. Sid Sidebottom: 27.4%-37.8%-33.1%. Brett Whiteley: 42.7%-30.5%-25.3%.

Lyons (Labor 12.3%): Dick Adams (Labor) 32.3%, Eric Hutchison (Liberal) 46.8%, Greens 10.2%. Two party preferred: 54.4%-45.6% to Liberal. Rudd 50.7%, Abbott 49.3%. Dick Adams: 26.8%-34.3%-35.7%. Eric Hutchison: 36.8%-29.3%-18.2%.

UPDATE 3: More numbers from last night’s Galaxy poll. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-34, but Malcolm Turnbull holds a 46-38 lead over Rudd.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50. The poll finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue, with Labor on 25% (up eight on mid-June), the Coalition on 26% (down 12) and the Greens on 6% (down one). The issue is rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. Malcolm Turnbull is rated best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and there are further questions on workplace productivity.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2216 comments

2,216 thoughts on “Galaxy: 50-50

  1. Gary Morgan is still using respondent allocated preferences in his headline results, so when you analyse his data based on 2010 election preferences, it brings the result back to 50.5% to 49.5% 2PP to the ALP.

  2. Yes Australia can handle a population of 50 million but it needs to deal with several infrastructure issues first.

    You cannot just jump from 23 to 50 overnight.

    Carey thanks, i will remember that and use that as my excuse for being silent even when i think i am totally right and everyone is too young to have a clue 😉

  3. triton

    Have heard youngsters use “epic” alone as (I think) a sign of approval. “It was epic.” Seems popular after sports contests?

  4. Boerwar and other self-marginalised prospective informal ‘voters’:

    What would need to change in order for you to cast a formal ballot? And do you consider those changes to be likely in the next say, 20 years or so?

  5. @Tricot/2053

    I think in terms of Tasmania a lost cause for the ALP.

    ========================================

    I think you’re correct, which is very disheartening for us down here. Doing something about freight might help, but despite what some people have said on here, Tasmanian voters are influenced in their federal votes by their perception of state governments. David Bartlett started it and the current ALP/Green government has continued it. The development/environment clashes have taken a huge toll and a lot of,us former Green voters have now swung direct to Labor.

    I’m hoping my local member, Julie Collins, survives, but it will take a miracle to win the three other seats. I think Wilkie is safe.

  6. [I have similar difficulties with ‘Jewfish’ (big-nosed) and ‘Niggers’ (blackish) – both prized catches. ‘Luderick’ is available for the latter, but I am unaware of an alternative name for ‘Jewies’.]

    BW, in W.A. at least its spelled Dhufish, not Jewfish.

  7. OK, I need some help. I have a facebook flamewar happening about prime ministers heading into warzones. I have some military friends suggesting that the prime minister would need ‘approval’ to go into an operational theatre. I am suggesting the prime minister would take advice, but can go where they please in an Australian theatre. Does that accord with the brains trust here? What’s the constitutional requirement for committing us to war? My understanding is the PM can pretty much do it on their own without a vote – is that right?

  8. Would love to see state by state, gender and age group breakdowns of polls. I think libs could lose a few inner suburb and more educated/ professional marginal seats after this weeks antics. Bennelong, Dunkely, pynes seat, and some in wa?? I expect talcum (as a progressive gay icon) will survive easily but will be closer than last time. Queensland will remain the key, but I think net losses in other states may be overstated and a gain of 5 in qld will get labor over the line. Have katter and palmer directed preferences yet?