tip off

Seats of the week: Dunkley and Macquarie

This week: one Liberal marginal in outer Melbourne, and another in outer Sydney.

Another double header in our ongoing scramble to cover potential Coalition-held seats of interest.

Dunkley (Liberal 1.1%)

Dunkley covers an area of bayside Melbourne about 40 kilometres from the city centre which has been effectively unchanged by the redistribution. It consists of two distinct electoral parts, with Labor-leaning Frankston and its northern coastal neighbour Seaford slightly outweighed by blue-ribbon Mount Eliza immediately to the south. The electorate further extends south to Liberal-leaning Mornington along the coast, and inland to marginal Langwarrin. The north-south electoral cleavage reflects a straightforward divide in incomes, the area being notably Anglo at both ends.

Dunkley was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984 and won for Labor on its inauguration by Robert Chynoweth, who had cut short Peter Reith’s brief first stint in parliament by winning Flinders for Labor at the 1983 election. Chynoweth was re-elected with a small swing in 1987 and then gained a 3.9% boost with a redistribution that shifted the electorate further north, exchanging Mornington for Chelsea. However, even this was not sufficient to hold back a tide that costs Labor nine Victorian seats at the 1990 election, with Liberal candidate Frank Ford gaining the seat off a 6.8% swing. Chynoweth ran again in 1993 and emerged a surprise winner, securing a slender 0.6% margin after a 1.9% swing. Hope for another term was effectively dashed when a new redistribution effectively undid the last, leaving Chynoweth defending a negative margin at a losing election.

The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Bruce Billson, who by the 2004 election had built enough of a buffer to survive the reverse that has played out with 5.3% and 3.0% swings over successive elections. Billson rose to the outer ministry portfolio of veterans affairs in the last two years of the Howard government and then to the front bench in opposition, but he was demoted to the outer ministry by Malcolm Turnbull after backing other horses in leadership ballots. He would return in the small business portfolio when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009, holding it and related portfolios ever since. His Labor opponent is Sonya Kilkenny, a commercial lawyer from Seaford.

Macquarie (Liberal 1.3%)

Located on the western fringes of Sydney, Macquarie combines the solidly Liberal-voting Hawkesbury River area around Richmond and Windsor and Labor-voting communities on the Great Western Highway through the Blue Mountains. The seat has existed in name since federation but has changed substantially voer its history, having originally been concentrated on Bathurst and Lithgow. Those areas came to be accommodated by Calare after the 1977 and 1984 redistributions, the latter effecting further change by transferring Penrith and St Marys to the new seat of Lindsay. Macquarie briefly resumed its former dimensions between 2007 and 2010, when Calare moved deep into the state’s interior to cover the abolition of Gwydir and Macquarie lost the Hawkesbury area to Greenway. This resulted in a brief interruption to a Liberal hold on the seat going back to 1996, which was resumed in 2010 when Louise Markus succeeding in transferring to the seat from unfavourably redistributed Greenway.

Macquarie’s most famous former member is Ben Chifley, who was born and raised in Bathurst and first elected to the seat in 1928. Chifley was voted out in the 1931 landslide, twice failing to recover the seat before finally breaking through in 1940. Labor thereafter held the seat without interruption until the dark days of 1975 and 1977, with Ross Free recovering the seat with Labor’s improved performance in 1980. Free jumped to the new seat of Lindsay when parliament was enlarged in 1984, which took in the strong Labor areas of Penrith and St Marys. The slender margin left to Labor in Macquarie was erased by a slight swing at the 1984 election, and the seat held for the Liberals for the next three terms by Alasdair Webster. Maggie Deahm won the seat for Labor in 1993 by 164 votes, a margin that was easily accounted for by a 6.5% swing to Liberal candidate Kerry Bartlett when the Keating government was dumped in 1996. Bartlett’s margin progressed from 4.1% at the 1998 election to 8.9% at the 2004 election, at which point the aforementioned redistribution pulled the rug from under his feet.

Macquarie now had a notional Labor margin of 0.5%, to which the locally familiar Bob Debus added another 6.6% as Kevin Rudd led Labor to office. The Hawkesbury area meanwhile came to be represented Louise Markus, a former Hillsong Church community worker who in 2004 won the seat of Greenway for the Liberals for the first time since it was created in 1984. The redistribution then inflated her margin in Greenway from 0.6% to 11.0%, of which 4.5% remained after the 2007 election. The effect of the 2010 redistribution was even more pronounced, producing a 10.2% shift to Labor in Greenway while all but eliminating Labor’s margin in Macquarie. Upon jumping ship for Macquarie, where her task was aided by Debus’s retirement, Markus picked up a relatively mild swing of 1.5% that was nonetheless sufficient to secure her a margin of 1.2%. Markus meanwhile was promoted to the outer shadow ministry portfolio of veterans affairs in September 2008, but dropped after the 2010 election.

Labor’s election for the second successive elections is Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who promotes herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”.

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  • 1
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 4:42 am | Permalink

    ..Robert Chynoweth, who had cut short Peter Reith’s brief first stint in parliament by winning Flinders for Labor at the 1983 election.

    Greater love hath no man.

  • 2
    mari
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 5:22 am | Permalink

    Hi CW if you are still around
    I had a bit of a look at the previous thread but quickly scrolled through, sick of the rewriting of history.
    Instead had a great trip up from Cornwall back to Somerset with my cousin. LIZZIE came back through Boodmin Moors a big traffic jam there.
    Anyway a beautiful evening here am eating strawberries. Off tomorrow to see some other rellies, end of travel talk.

  • 3
    izatso?
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 5:43 am | Permalink

    ….. gridlock on Bodmin …..

    who’da …. ?

  • 4
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 6:10 am | Permalink

    Mari and Izatzo

    Hello!

    Just looked back in. Was sort of asleepish.

    Beginning to haitcha, Mari. Get back here and suffer like the rest of us!!

  • 5
    BK
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 6:20 am | Permalink

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    I hope Kevin Andrews and Fred Nile enjoy this journey.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-set-to-back-samesex-marriage-20130726-2qq3n.html
    Mark Kenny sees a different Rudd this time.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/revised-rudd-prefers-method-to-madness-at-second-attempt-20130726-2qq1i.html
    And Mark Kenny doesn’t seem too impressed with Hockey’s rubbishing of Treasury.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/hockey-noconfidence-in-treasury-20130726-2qq3h.html
    Hockey gets a sidewinder from Bowen for the comments.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/chris-bowen-criticises-coalition-over-swipe-at-treasury-20130726-2qp8r.html
    And here’e another “F”, Bernardi. F***ing dangerous idiot!
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/south-australian-senator-cory-bernardis-spells-out-his-six-f-word-solutions-to-save-western-civilisation/story-fni6uo1m-1226686581278
    The Essendon/drugs issue getting even more interesting – and disturbing!
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/essendon-fears-drug-deceit-20130726-2qq3f.html
    Abbott in retreat on “Gonski”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/abbott-flipflops-on-school-funding-reforms-20130726-2qo2k.html
    A very good Mike Carlton column this week.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-did-we-contain-our-excitement-20130726-2qpan.html

  • 6
    BK
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 6:20 am | Permalink

    Section 2 . . .

    Alan Moir is singularly unimpressed with where the AS issue has gone.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    And so is David Pope.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg also.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  • 7
    jeffemu
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 6:40 am | Permalink

    Good morning BK. Many thanks for the posting of the links. I appreciate it greatly.

    If I miss a day or too in here and don’t have the time to backtrack on posts I use your morning dawn patrol post as my “new – revised” starting point.

    Thanks again.

  • 8
    jeffemu
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 6:45 am | Permalink

    BK

    Of course I check out the links too. LOve the links to the cartoons. I often link those out to the Tories I am fighting in other places……. just to start their mornings off on the right note.

  • 9
    BK
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 6:47 am | Permalink

    And from the Land of the Free.

    Some cartoons on Texan stupidity.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/07/26/cartoons-of-the-day-even-stupidity-is-bigger-in-texas/
    Military justice writ large.
    http://occupyamerica.crooksandliars.com/diane-sweet/pfc-lavena-johnson-wouldve-turned-28-w
    Civil justice writ large.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/07/26/1226747/-Whoop-de-do-Halliburton-to-pay-fine-for-destroying-evidence-that-is-0-03-of-2nd-quarter-profits
    Chuckworthy!
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/pastor-god-we-trust-signs-tennessee-courthou
    A good video parody on the Repugs’ attitude to women and health care.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017134507
    Cenk Uygur on racism in America. Piers Morgan is a very determined interviewer. I wish we had him over here.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017134325
    Idiot Michele Bachmann’s troubles get deeper.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/26/michele-bachmann-ethics-investigation_n_3659338.html

  • 10
    BK
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 6:49 am | Permalink

    jeffemu
    It’s nice to be of service.

  • 11
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 6:50 am | Permalink

    I am rather annoyed. Let me count the ways. On the subject of asylees.

    One wrestles and wrestles. Every day. Conceptually.

    Undoubtedly it is rather worse for them. As in actual real world.

    This kind of abstract thing, we may think.

    Though not quite, in my case and the cases of some thirty people and or family groups I know. Not that I am prepared nor want to go into that, at this moment.

    PB can make me feel so angry at times.

    I went to huge research lengths to find real stuff regarding asylees and what we should do or imagine we could do. Or urge our Government to do. Or find out what our Govt is doing. Or think. Or persuade. Or reach our personal position on.

    I posted one tiny large bit of my search on the previous thread. Did not get one single response. Whilst they were arguing about the very things which were in the posted non theoretical document. Let me get the reference. Yes,

    http://www.unodc.org/documents/southeastasiaandpacific//Publications/2012/Thematic_Review_eBook_version_17_August_2012.pdf

    It would be fantastic if the Government were to publicise the reality of what is being faced here, across the world.

    There are none. In any immediate sense. There are only tough choices. But no way, inhumane choices.

    I do not mean in any sense, lay open the country. Nor do I mean maltreat asylum seekers. I said here at the time that I was appalled at the idea of sending people to the Nauru shit hole. I recall being delighted that some one or other including Julian Burnside were attempting their release.

    Well, I guess they don’t need to press on for that moment in time, as it turns out.

    What really pisses me is that the smugglers, including ex by boat people, are trading on people’s lives, our well intention, all for money. Betraying everything we wish to do. Betraying all those in the supposed queue. This is where the effort should be made. Stop the Smugglers!

    It would be fantastic if Australia were made to see it and told to shut the fuck up and get over it about simplistic solutions.

    Sure, it will take forever. But there it is.

  • 12
    izatso?
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:02 am | Permalink

    It Denial et Deflection to survive 24/7 for most idiots on here, CW….. Facts ?
    Print that full pdf download to paper, smack them with that, and they’d regain semi-consciousness with exactly the same rant you put them to bed with…..

  • 13
    mari
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:09 am | Permalink

    Crikey my heart is broken, even my tablet stopped working for a while :grin: And I loves you and Izatso too. Shall retreat now

  • 14
    centaur009
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:38 am | Permalink

    Thats Kilkenny for Dunkley..which is a huge improvement on the last ALP candidate

  • 15
    OzPol Tragic
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:40 am | Permalink

    Good morning, Dawn Patrol.

    G’day Mari. Glad you’re having a wonderful time.

    Thanks again, BK. Those on my email tree with mobile phones had fun at work with yesterday’s.

    I posted this mid-arvo yesterday, but it bears reposting for Early Risers … and Second Hand Roses, like me (Retail? What’s retail”?)

    Sadly, the graphs seem to have disappeared since yesterday, but they were Gerry Harvey& Co’s worst nightmare – about a half of Aussies are going second hand & overseas with a vengeance!

    BTW, I’ll sneak this in. If you’ve hankered for a vintage top-brand classic, mechanical watch – like an Omega Seamaster or Deville (or you’ve lost your boxes) – go to ebay com & check “worldwide” for the search, then type in the brand. Like mechanical vintage cars, their spare parts are always available (I can still get parts for my great aunt’s antique WWI watch, sent by her fiance later killed on the Western Front). I’ve bought a 1950s Longines & 2 Omegas (all going) for under $100 ea.

    Wow! Something else at which Aussies are World Beaters! Australian online shoppers go global Australian online shoppers go global

    Australians are the developed world's most frequent online shoppers at international retailers, a global survey has found.

    The shift towards online shopping came as more Australians chose to save rather than spend, the annual global survey of almost 30,000 consumers by the Boston Consulting Group found.

    The results clearly show retailers would be foolish to pin their hopes for a spending recovery on an uptick in the Australian economy.

    The survey, which included 2502 Australian respondents, was another blow to the domestic retail sector, which has struggled in a subdued spending climate and amid weak consumer confidence.

    Suck it up, Gerry Harvey!

  • 16
    BK
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:50 am | Permalink

    Gerry Harvey. Everyone’s friend!

  • 17
    mari
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:55 am | Permalink

    OzPol thank you I am.
    Thanks to BK I also can send links on Twitter as I think you know :grin:
    Off to bed now

  • 18
    BK
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    Night mari!

  • 19
    BK
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:08 am | Permalink

    I couldn’t agree more!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-27/call-for-changes-to-science-teaching-to-boost-graduate-numbers/4847334

  • 20
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    About this time last week, I posted some ideas about how Australia could play a part in dealing with the global challenge of resettling those 15 million or so regarded by the UNHCR as refugees, while making a start on some of the broader work on realising the Millennium Development Goals. It was intended seriously, but of course, in this country, the only thing that is serious about refugee policy at official level is a serious wish that those who can get to Australia and claim refugee status should FOAD. Talking with a normally slightly left-of-centre colleague recently, I was reminded how intellectually deforming tribalism can be as he conceded that everything I said on dealing with refugees was true and then went on to nevertheless defend FOAD policy.

    So we’re a very long way from getting an equitable and sustainable policy for responding to the challenge of doing right by those whose options for avoiding persecution approach are modest.

    With that in mind, I thought I’d focus on what, in the more immediate sense, could be done to amereliorate the current ostensible policy concern — “stopping drownings” — that doesn’t entail direct or implicit coercion or forcible acceptance of misery or radically diminished life chances.

    Firstly, and most obviously, one must look at that part of the causation over which Australian regimes can exercise some influence. IMO this is the ‘urgency’ question. Clearly, if people in camps in Indonesia or Malaysia feel as if their lives are not maintainable — they and their children have to live in squalor in a kind of interminable waiting room to begin the rest of their lives — then they are going to see a high risk-high return risk trade as more appealing. The low risk-low return gets them death in the end, and misery in the meantime. Going into debt to pay people for the right to ride on an unseaworthy vessel crewed by children so as to have a shot at a life with purpose and fulfilment seems rational. Almost anyone would do this.

    So the first thing we need to do is to create an actual queue. People should believe that if they present for protection in Indonesia or Malaysia or any other significant aggregation point then their applications will be considered in a timely way. Once determined to be a bona fide claimant, they will be settled within a reasonable time, if not in Australia, then, by negotiation, in a satisfactory place negotiated between them, Australia, the host country (if not Australia) and relevant NGOs.

    In the interim, Australia ensures that their ‘waiting room’ is not a squalid camp but something that resembles a well established settlement, with robust housing, paved streets, addresses at which they can receive physical mail, water and sewerage, garbage collection, power, data, health, education for children, adolescents and adults, television and recreation facilities and so forth. The government thus ensures that irrespective of the determination of their applications, that if they stay put, they can get the education and health and the dignity that their own states denied them, and help them qualify over time as skilled or business migrants in other countries if not Australia. Australia becomes their agent, assisting them to move on with their lives. An office is set up in the camp staffed during business hours. Indonesians and Malaysians get access to the health and education facilities. We pay for this under aid budgets.

    Now in the long run, people who have decided that there is nothing for them in their home country are not going to be deterred indefinitely, but in this approach, in the short to medium term, the urgency diminishes, and as time passes, they have a growing sunk cost asset to protect (their place in the actual queue). They also have an interest in staying put, since their life chances are improving and they can believe that the day when they can start a new and better life is approaching. Australia can present itself as a place honouring its obligations under the convention and would probably spend less per protected person under this plan than it is now.

  • 21
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:17 am | Permalink

    None of which, Fran, addresses what I can do to make your worthy goals achievable.

    ‘So the first thing we need to do is to create an actual queue.

    In the interim, Australia ensures that their ‘waiting room’ is not a squalid camp but something that resembles a well established settlement, with robust housing, paved streets, addresses at which they can receive physical mail, water and sewerage, garbage collection, power, data, health, education for children, adolescents and adults, television and recreation facilities and so forth.’

  • 22
    OzPol Tragic
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:18 am | Permalink

    Crikey Whitey

    I posted one tiny large bit of my search on the previous thread. Did not get one single response. Whilst they were arguing about the very things which were in the posted non theoretical document. Let me get the reference. Yes,

    http://www.unodc.org/documents/southeastasiaandpacific//Publications/2012/Thematic_Review_eBook_version_17_August_2012.pdf

    CW, Having posted heaps of relevant urls on emerging topics (GBA, phone-hacking, CSG & fracking, seabed mining near Pacific Islands , Carbon pricing & markets etc – more recently International Law & Law of the Sea), I know that feeling. But what I’ve realised is that many PBers do read, but not respond – not immediately, that is – but later postings on the topics show they have read.

    Not everyone has the time, or inclination, to respond immediately, esp if they’re “catching up” (maybe at work over a cup of coffee) by scanning through posts & bookmarking interesting ones; or their minds are concentrated on something quite different to which they’ll return in a few minutes & don’t want to be distracted.

    I admit to being one who’ll bookmark references so I can come back to them later; especially now old age has destroyed my “multi-tasking” ability to switch between tasks from one to the other – whilst also answering the phone – without “losing my thread”. Drives me nuts, now, esp since I can “lose my thread” without being interrupted :-(

    Knowledge is power; so information is what counts!

    So keep posting, CW. Remember there are Lurkers, many students & Oldies, who enjoy blogs, Boards etc, but don’t post. They’re the ones I try to remember when I’m posting; the ones who will form opinions, but not react; something which many posters forget. On a political blog like PB, people are judging parties by what their self/appointed followers write! Some posters are their chosen party’s worst nightmare.

  • 23
    my say
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:20 am | Permalink

    bk and also the pay, when the children ( now adults] looked at course, they noted the low pay for such valuable work in research.

  • 24
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:23 am | Permalink

    CW

    None of which, Fran, addresses what I can do to make your worthy goals achievable.

    The bitter reality is that this side of inclusive governance in this country, the difference between nothing and what individuals in this country can hope to achieve in government policy is typically hard to see. The system is not configured to facilitate policy development and engagement other than by careerists pledged to boss class interests.

  • 25
    kevjohnno
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:28 am | Permalink

    Some posters are their chosen party’s worst nightmare.

    So true.

  • 26
    my say
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:28 am | Permalink

    many posters forget. On a political blog like PB, people are judging parties by what their self/appointed followers write! Some posters are their chosen party’s worst nightmare.
    ———————————————————
    very true like the ones that will change, when times change.
    ones stuck in the past , ones that hope we lose to spite kev.

    we used to believe in the white aust, policy , now that was years ago, some also wanted to nationalise the banks that was years ago, one bought in national service .

    if the party stayed with those old values, there would be no labor party now.

    it a nonsense to say we have our values, health, education and looking after workers and the good pensions are the core and that to me are the values we have to maintain the rest has to be taken on board as the years change.

    now they’re the ones the lurker s read, and feel confused.

    and the one I value the most, is supporting the pm that is chosen by the caucus, through thick and thin, as I did with JG and will now do with KR for the good of our nation, so there

  • 27
    adrian
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:34 am | Permalink

    Well said my say! Away with self-indulgence! We have a rabbit to beat and he needs beating for the good of the country.

  • 28
    my say
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:34 am | Permalink

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/18153491/abbott-plan-riles-defence-chief/

    The West Australian ©

    Related Links

    : Plan ‘won’t change much’

    Tony Abbott’s national security credentials are being questioned after Australia’s military savaged his plan to wage “war” on people smugglers.

    In a rare move, Chief of Defence David Hurley issued a statement defending the current chain of command in response to the coalition saying it would appoint a “three-star” general to oversee efforts to stop the boats.

    The influential Australian Defence Association warned Mr Abbott’s plan risked offending the bedrock Westminster principle to keep “the gun out of our politics”.

    Constitutional experts and former defence secretary Paul Barratt warned that the Opposition’s proposal would require a rewriting of the Defence Act. He said the plan had enormous risk of creating a “swashbuckling outfit” outside normal controls.

  • 29
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:35 am | Permalink

    Sky said they had a poll running after Abbott’s ‘People’s Forum’ in Launceston.

    Did they ever broadcast the results?

  • 30
    my say
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:36 am | Permalink

    noticed the above has gone to 1 thousand facebook addresses

  • 31
    my say
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:37 am | Permalink

    no not that I an aware of,
    may be ill tweet them

  • 32
    citizen
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:38 am | Permalink

    For what it’s worth:

    While "Kevin from Queensland" has chosen to turn on his rock star charm with school students, traditional Tony has been wooing voters at business functions and a seniors forum.

    The choice of crowds the leaders have mingled in has provided an insight to how the pair will play to their strengths when the real election campaign begins.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/special-features/rudd-and-abbott-gear-up-on-the-campaign-trail/story-fnho52jp-1226686559823

  • 33
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:43 am | Permalink

    OzPolT 2971

    My original post was prefaced in part with ‘This is a far more devastating and useful guide as to why neither parties current solutions could have a hope of working.

    Bookmark, read and weep’.

    Realising that the document was a helluva read, in length and content, I went to some trouble to include the Contents page, so would be readers had an idea of its breadth.

    Thank you for your thoughtful and encouraging response.

    I will keep your thoughts in mind.

    It is true that I too read but respond some time later, as you may have gathered. In particular when an intended recipient is on deck. Otherwise could be lost in the fray.

    I quite like Izatzo’s? idea of whacking people with a rolled up PDF though.

  • 34
    lizzie
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:51 am | Permalink

    Fran, crikey whitey, OzPolT

    I’d like to add my appreciation for many thoughtful posts and links from such as you. This blog moves so fast at times, or maybe gets caught up in rather useless argument on a side issue, that a small note of appreciation would be out of time and lost.

  • 35
    spur212
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:02 am | Permalink

    Glory

    49% were persuaded by him, 33% remained undecided and 16% went the other way. Pretty standard results with this sort of excercise

    http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2013/07/26/384340_most-popular-stories.html

  • 36
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    Lizzie. Thank you.

    Lost, no, occasionally but not necessarily.

    (Still formulating a response to Fran)

  • 37
    my say
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    What really pisses me is that the smugglers, including ex by boat people, are trading on people’s lives, our well intention, all for money. Betraying everything we wish to do. Betraying all those in the supposed queue. This is where the effort should be made. Stop the Smugglers!

    crickey

    ===========================================================

    YES and YES

    I am so annoyed with them, they have to understand our values as well,

  • 38
    my say
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:05 am | Permalink

    SPUR are they joking

  • 39
    my say
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    I would add the 33 percent to the 16 percent
    Launceston people are very polite it just a big country town.
    id bet most walked out and said nothing
    Launceston people are like that.

  • 40
    izatso?
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    ….. now now CW, best not to vocalise or enact my subtle fancies…..

  • 41
    Socrates
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:09 am | Permalink

    Fran, crikey, OzPT

    Like Lizzie thanks for your posts. I am troubled by the asylum seeker issue and will read and think about your links. My stated support for the PNG policy has been purely of the “least bad option” variety.

    That being said, I am rapidly forming the view that in an ugly situation with desperate people, there are no completely pure motives, and may be no clearly just solution without adverse consequences. The riot in Nauru focused on destroying the brand new refugee facility that had much better quality amenities for AS people. The timing and targetting of the riot was obviously deliberately designed to deny the Australian government a humane housing option to keep people there. Presumably this was intended to force a policy change. There was a high degree of violence.

    As I have said before, I recommend Peter Singer’s book One World for reading on the moral theories for issues like this. I still hVen’t made up my mind on what is “right” yet, although the current situation is in my view unsustainable.

  • 42
    Socrates
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    Regarding the link to Cori Bernardi’s rant du jour:

    Mr Bernardi has written a Bible for conservatives based on the ‘f words’: Faith, Family, Flag, Free enterprise, Federation and Freedom.

    Gee Cori, that solves everything. Tell that to the most ruthless market traders on Wall Street and I am sure they will be changed men, repaying their victims from their own pockets. Likewise the least educated members of our poorest Aboriginal settlement will transform into productive citizens the next day after hearing Cori.

    Where does Bernardi get the idea that he is worth listening to on such topics? Next to him, even Tony Abbott is an intellectual. Bernardi seems to combine self-righteousness and cluelessness, in a uniquely empty package. His own life is a classic example of the US saying, “born in third base and thinks he has hit a triple”.

    Off to do the shopping. Crikey I will read your link on my return.

  • 43
    castle
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    49% were persuaded by him, 33% remained undecided and 16% went the other way.

    Thats a good result for him. My feeling is it will be a comfortable lib win of between 83 to 89 seats.

    89 would be better as 83 means a chance rudd will stay on as leader.

    there is something quite repulsive about rudd and his howard emulation in the fouling of the national apology to the forced adoptions with the leadership challenge that was so deliberately timed and then his wearing of the blue tie straight after Gillards speech that mirrored howards slighting of the war widow.

    rudd is no labor man, he wanted a minimum 5 standards when abolishing Work Choices, it was Gillard that fought for and got the minimum 10 standards. rudd has promised business a review of Fair Work that will likely see him get his minimum 5 standards. howard will be applauding him.

  • 44
    Socrates
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:20 am | Permalink

    My say

    I am so annoyed with them, they have to understand our values as well,

    One of the sad lessons of studying moral philosophy is that many people are very bad at understanding value systems other than their own, much less agreeing with them. Most of us gain our value system during upbringing, and rarely change them later. I include myself in this group.

  • 45
    OzPol Tragic
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    gloryconsequence

    Sky said they had a poll running after Abbott’s ‘People’s Forum’ in Launceston.

    Did they ever broadcast the results?

    If the poll for Abbott is positive enough, you could probably bet the house on publication.

    Non-publication? Yeah. Right. So that’s it, eh?

  • 46
    my say
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    crickey I missed it the first time around, now it want open, just a blank page.

    I agree, there are times when a few of us search the net to present a thought. .

    I have given up responding to green posters re refugees instead I posted their policy, which makes no sense to me.

    IT was suggested here that we increase our population to one million, you will know who complained the most the greens.
    but then they want open door migration.

    On the other hand I am happy with our population as Tasmania.

  • 47
    OzPol Tragic
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:26 am | Permalink

    I quite like Izatzo’s? idea of whacking people with a rolled up PDF though.

    So do I, CW. But does it make a difference when whacking totally-solidified, over-reinforced concrete?

  • 48
    lizzie
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    Socrates

    The riot in Nauru focused on destroying the brand new refugee facility that had much better quality amenities for AS people.

    I agree with you on the manipulative motivation for this riot. It destroys sympathy. I cannot understand why we are supposed to believe that all AS are innocent victims, or all are the opposite. Life isn’t like that.

  • 49
    spur212
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    Castle

    49 people were persuaded by him, 49 people weren’t persuaded by him

    In these sorts of things, that’s around about average. It would be interesting to see how Rudd would have gone as I reckon he’d have done far better in that sort of setting

  • 50
    my say
    Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    socrates, agree but on the other hand, do I mean ideas.

    I was one of the thousands that rallied against Howard and the Tampa,, was that different.
    I think it was the overtone at the time that was coming through I was also very cross with Kim Beazley at the time
    for not going harder at Howard.
    all this was new to us at the time, we had been used to taking all comers.
    but now the all comers are playing us for silly people,
    paying your way to come on leaky boat and stopping families who just sit and wait , does not seem right to me
    then the drowning, the children don’t ask to come
    so do some values change as we hear different stories do we grow.I feel a bit harsh sometimes but then reality comes back.
    I think the piece in the Hoopla by craig Emmerson is so good
    there was some ravers and ranters their too

    I recognised the style of writing from some I think

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