tip off

Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research and Morgan results both detect a rise in support for the Greens, with Morgan finding Labor support coming off a little after successive strong results in previous weeks.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll finds the Labor primary vote slipping three points to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 10.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 41.5%. That translates to 52-48 to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, down slightly from 52.5-47.5 last week. The change is sharper on the generally more useful two-party measure which distributes preferences according to the previous election result, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5.

Meanwhile, today’s Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50.

Essential also finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval, and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue. Labor is favoured by 25% (up eight on mid-June), Coalition by 26% (down 12) and the Greens by 6% (down one). Asylum seeker arrivals are rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most important by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. The poll also has Malcolm Turnbull rated as best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and also includes further questions on workplace productivity.

1830
  • 1
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:51 pm | Permalink

    50-50 baby

  • 2
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:51 pm | Permalink

    Well the trend seems on

    Tone is going to have to change his narrative or risk losing all momentum

  • 3
    Pegasus
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:51 pm | Permalink

    Greens primary vote: 8% men ; 12.5% women

  • 4
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:51 pm | Permalink

    P

    ‘Greens primary vote: 8% men ; 12.5% women’

    So, has Milne a man problem?

  • 5
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:51 pm | Permalink

    So why is there a difference between primary votes between polls?

  • 6
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    I suspect the Greens have always polled higher amounts Women than Men

  • 7
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    The polls are pretty much reflecting which way I think the election will go right now i.e. either way.

  • 8
    sprocket_
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    Gary Morgan must be polling the docter’s wives around Brighton again

    10.5 Greens is a touch on the hi-side

  • 9
    FarQU
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

    The sitting member, Griggs (CLP), is basically a bland and forgettable seat-warmer

    You’re too kind.

  • 10
    shellbell
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

    Triton

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/finding-4568-201302150155

  • 11
    FarQU
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    The term “fulsome” has undergone a number of connotative changes over its life in English

    Fulsome Prison Blues is a personal favourite.

  • 12
    shellbell
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    Our German exchange student says nice or very nice a bit too often.

    I will suggest “fully sick” as an alternative.

  • 13
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    I wonder if jaundiced view has jettisoned his delusion that Australians favour onshore processing yet. 61% in favour of PNG, including over 30% of those redneck Greens!

  • 14
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    So, there are only 17% of Australian voters who, given a free choice, prefer Abbott as prime minister.

    Aussies know this bloke for a rotten apple.

  • 15
    BK
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    Aussies know this bloke for a rotten apple.

    Among other things.

  • 16
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    shellbell
    I seem to recall a time when ‘sick’ meant ‘good’.

  • 17
    poroti
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    shellbell

    Be careful if the student resembles this guy :)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBduNcf1eQc

  • 18
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

    Well the trend seems on

    You guys invent trends you want to see.

    The trend is… if you have been paying attention for the last 3 years is that Labor will lose the election.

    These polls(excluding Labor friendly morgan) says Labor will still lose but not by much.

    There is nothing wrong with following the trend as long as you don’t pick and choose where you think the trend should start from.

  • 19
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

    BK

    While you are here: thanks for your continued morning gleanings. Apart from anything else, the oats go down better with a bit of outraged contempt for the latest Repug insults to Western Civilization.

  • 20
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    Sean – do you disagree that the trend of 50-50 (give or take half a point) doesn’t exist?

  • 21
    Pegasus
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    61% in favour of PNG, including over 30% of those redneck Greens!

    Perhaps these respondents are “gaming the polling” ;-)

  • 22
    FarQU
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

    I stay clear of words like b***h (for female humans but not dogs) and c**t

    The wikipedia entry for c*** is fascinating.

  • 23
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    Sean – do you disagree that the trend of 50-50

    I agree that you pick and choose when to see the “trend”

    The “Trend” is for the last 3 years Labor will lose.

    The “Trend” under Rudd says Labor will lose but not by much.

    Selectively choosing when a trend starts and finishes is a failure of the Labor supporters here of wishful thinking. If the poll drops next week for Labor you’ll do a hard reset and say the trend now starts from that poll, not the one before it.

    At the moment there is no movement to Labor and no movement to Coalition, just margin of errors.

  • 24
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    Sean – do you disagree that the trend of 50-50 (give or take half a point) doesn’t exist?

    Of course not. Sean is a party hack. He only believes what the party tells him to believe. It’s all spin and party lines for him. Objective facts mean nothing.

    (Which is why he is so quick to accuse everybody else of spinning and cherry picking – it’s projection of his own crimes)

  • 25
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    What is wrong with the Seventeen Per Cent of Australians who Prefer Abbott?

  • 26
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    My model is showing 50.4/49.6 with the LNP just a touch ahead after the latest polls.

    Any trend is with Labor at present.

  • 27
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    The weekly Essential Research and Morgan results both detect a rise in support for the Greens,

    As predicted: GRNs the only clear winners from the asylum seeker pissing contest.

  • 28
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    The wikipedia entry for c*** is fascinating.

    Oh very much so. Indeed, given your nym, if you look up f*** is it also … err … fascinating

  • 29
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    I agree that you pick and choose when to see the “trend”

    The “Trend” is for the last 3 years Labor will lose.

    Cool story bro.

    That’s not how polling works.

  • 30
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    The wikipedia entry for c*** is fascinating.

    Carts are fascinating? :lol:

  • 31
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    Selectively choosing when a trend starts and finishes is a failure

    Let’s just quote that back to ST the next time he recites some “the world hasn’t warmed since X” line.

  • 32
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    Forced to choose between Rudd and Abbott voters could always send a clear signal: Neither is better than Either:

    Vote 1 Informal Party.

  • 33
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    Pegasus

    “Perhaps these respondents are “gaming the polling” ;)

    I know you’re probably joking, but why would a Green voter tell a pollster they support PNG if they don’t? What possible benefit would emerge from such a strategy?

  • 34
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    Triton

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/finding-4568-201302150155

    Wherein Morgan “recontacted 187 ‘undecided’ and Green voters from the 7News Morgan Poll of 1,872 electors conducted on the evenings of Wednesday and Thursday August 18/19, 2010″ and reallocated their votes if they had changed their mind – one of the dumbest things I’ve ever seen a pollster do. The original result had been highly accurate, barring a slight lean to Labor relative to the actual result which can be explained by a trend towards the Coalition late in the campaign.

    However, this was a phone poll, whereas most Morgan polls of the time were face-to-face. They don’t get much credit for it, but going off federal election eve results, Morgan phone polls have a better record over the past 10 years than any other series. The Morgan face-to-face poll from the weekend before the last election was biased to Labor as always, although not by as much as usual (it had them 52-48 ahead).

  • 35
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    cats?

  • 36
    poroti
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

    FarQU

    Imagine these traditional street names in todays world !!
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gropecunt_Lane

  • 37
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

    Sean

    Actually for the past two years the TTP has been showing the Liberals in front by about 10 points.

    If you have been reading my comments here over that time and even as recent as this week i have been saying that the Liberals are favorite to win the next election but will need to show real policies and real solutions to real problems.

  • 38
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    lefty e

    “As predicted: GRNs the only clear winners from the asylum seeker pissing contest.”

    Uh yeah, they’re really kicking ass…

  • 39
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    I recall to, farqU, when travelling about Inverness in Scotland, the way the locals would render “I don’t know.” To my ear it sounded a lot like Ah do ken … which reminded me of the cognate with c**t …

  • 40
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    If ever you decide you want to cover the 2010 election, you’d note that the trend over the last 3 years had pointed to an easy Labor victory. Because that’s how polling works.

  • 41
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    Opps … I recall too … {slaps wrist}

  • 42
    triton
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

    From previous thread: Thanks, shellbell re Morgan election-eve poll. He was pretty close. I was thinking of applying a bias based on the difference between the poll and the election, but there’s very little. However, sampling only 187 voters worries me a lot.

  • 43
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    http://phildobbie.com/aboto/australia/item/80-thousands-of-migrants-arrive-through-uterus

    STOP THE TOTS!

  • 44
    poroti
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    From the previous blog. In NZ the Luderick is called by their Maori name , Parore. Perhaps that name would do. Mind you where I came from the other name for it was the Shit Fish.

  • 45
    Pegasus
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

    ...but why would a Green voter...

    They’re not really Green voters ;-)

  • 46
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

    If we compare where we are today with where we were at the last election then any trend is really hard to see. All those peaks and troughs during the period sort of become only good for arguments.

  • 47
    triton
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    Thanks for that, William. So, if I have that right, Morgan has a great record with election-eve phone polls, but chose not to do one last time.

  • 48
    Dee
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    A huge variety of spectacular marine life has been discovered near Victoria's Twelve Apostles. Divers braved wild seas off the rugged coast near the Great Ocean Road to capture thousands of images and hundreds of hours of footage. Coral reefs, sharks, starfish, crayfish and stingrays were among the colourful and diverse species recorded. The study was called Twelve Apostles Bioscan, and was a partnership between Museum Victoria, Parks Victoria and Deakin University.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-29/twelve-apostles-marine-life-photo-gallery/4850744

  • 49
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    AbsoluteTwaddle

    Why would a Green voter tell a pollster they support PNG if they don’t?

    Indeed …

    About 20% of our preferences go to the LNP ahead of the ALP, suggesting these are people who would prefer a more conservation minded pro-business policy, or perhaps one that in domestic social policy terms, more liberal (i.e. on gay marriage, drug policy etc)

    There can also be no doubt that some ALP-inclined voters give us their first preference on similar grounds. Others (from both sides) are keen on ZPG or are globalisation sceptics, and one can see why they’d be as unsympathetic to refugees as the major parties to which they lean. They vote for us anyway because they know that neither of the majors is going to listen to us in this area.

    There’s your 30%. Tellingly, such people either don’t join our party, or if they do, they keep quiet about their views on refugee policy.

  • 50
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    Sean

    At the moment there is no movement to Labor and no movement to Coalition, just margin of errors.

    So… 50-50 then?

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