tip off

Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research and Morgan results both detect a rise in support for the Greens, with Morgan finding Labor support coming off a little after successive strong results in previous weeks.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll finds the Labor primary vote slipping three points to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 10.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 41.5%. That translates to 52-48 to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, down slightly from 52.5-47.5 last week. The change is sharper on the generally more useful two-party measure which distributes preferences according to the previous election result, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5.

Meanwhile, today’s Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50.

Essential also finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval, and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue. Labor is favoured by 25% (up eight on mid-June), Coalition by 26% (down 12) and the Greens by 6% (down one). Asylum seeker arrivals are rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most important by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. The poll also has Malcolm Turnbull rated as best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and also includes further questions on workplace productivity.

1830
  • 101
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

    Abbott in the election campaign will make Hewson’s unloseable election lost, seem ot be a memory

    abbott will lose the election once again

  • 102
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

    Poroti

    I left out BB King … whom I also liked, and Mahalia Jackson too … and Dylan obviously …

  • 103
    pithicus
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

    plus Tricot, rudd is almost certainly going to win the debate/s?
    How many campaign debates are there going to be?

  • 104
    frednk
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:48 pm | Permalink

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/business/media-2/rupert-murdochs-pisspot-pirate-returns/

    Looks like we are going to get the full tea party treatment from “the australian”.

  • 105
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:48 pm | Permalink

    pithicus
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:47 pm | PERMALINK

    How many campaign debates are there going to be?

    ———–

    If the pro coalitiion media had its way 0

  • 106
    izatso?
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

    RUA !!

  • 107
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

    This side of Fran is refreshing and bringing back memories of the great guitarists of the 60′s. if only I could jig the way I did then without suffering for days after. Ahh memories.

  • 108
    frednk
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

    Number of debates will be zero, Abbott has walked away from every thing else. If you want to bet on something that is unknown go for the excuse.

  • 109
    Tricot
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

    The purpose of the visit of Mrs Rudd to Afghanistan with Kevin – which would be both uncomfortable and not without risk – is a question to be posed.

    That Mrs Howard went with Mr Howard might be some kind of precedent, but other than giving R&R to both men, what role have/had either women in being there?

    Does anyone know?

  • 110
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

    I think “unwinnable” or “unlosable” are adjectives that can no longer be applied to this election. Of course, after the last 3 years, a victory would be very sweet for Labor (like it was for Keating) because up until June it was looking like a forgone conclusion but, now, anything could happen.

  • 111
    izatso?
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

    I. Anderson, eh, Fran.

  • 112
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

    izatso

    Kultured is me. :lol:

  • 113
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

    Carey Moore

    I think abbott and the coalition were expecting to win by the opinion polls

    Barnaby joyce certainty did

    He keep on saying the polls says coaliton will win easily , this was 2 years ago

  • 114
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

    How many campaign debates are there going to be?

    One probably, and it will get buried on a Sunday night against popular programming.

  • 115
    frednk
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:54 pm | Permalink

    julia baird ‏@bairdjulia 20m

    Where did the $200 bn from the mining boom go, PNG and leadership tonight on @ABCthedrum with Nathan Rees, Ross Cameron, @StephenLongABC 6pm

    About 3 billion has been pissed up agains the wall locking up boat people.

    Overly red elephant on christmas island. Thanks Mr Howard.

  • 116
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:54 pm | Permalink

    I think abbott and the coalition were expecting to win by the opinion polls

    Barnaby joyce certainty did

    He keep on saying the polls says coaliton will win easily , this was 2 years ago

    Of course and I agree completely. In fact, I take a little schadenfreude watching them all change their attitudes now they realise they’re going to have to actually work to win the election.

  • 117
    izatso?
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    …. better that than german Art.

  • 118
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    BW,

    I don’t think things will end well for Hird or Essendon.

    I expect they’ll lose all their points for 2013 and Hird and Corcoran will be suspended.

  • 119
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:56 pm | Permalink

    Carey DLOTO is still a promotion.

  • 120
    frednk
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:58 pm | Permalink

    izatso?
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    …. better that than german Art.

    ?

    http://www.google.com.au/imgres?imgurl=http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Arts/Arts_/Pictures/2009/6/26/1246017397284/Self-Portrait-with-Straw–001.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/jonathanjonesblog%2Bvan-gogh&h=276&w=460&sz=37&tbnid=3XNf8AQDyCNPoM:&tbnh=67&tbnw=112&zoom=1&usg=__qLm6KHyGfFc0SAFABC6wB9dneoE=&docid=0CAt5_Oq5pDp_M&sa=X&ei=biD2UbelLtHOkAXLkoCQCA&ved=0CFgQ9QEwBA&dur=536

  • 121
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:58 pm | Permalink

    Fran,

    There was a New Zealander cricketer by the name of Bob Cunis in the early 70s.

    The English commentator thought it a strange name. Being neither one thing nor the other.

  • 122
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

    GG,

    I blame Collingwood. You know it makes sense.

  • 123
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

    Carey DLOTO is still a promotion.

    Joyce wouldn’t be DLOTO if he’s elected Nat Leader. Sure, if they Coalition win government, he’d become Deputy PM but the Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party is DLOTO if they’re in opposition.

  • 124
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

    Behave GG :)

  • 125
    poroti
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:00 pm | Permalink

    Fran Barlow

    and Dylan obviously

    Woah Stop. Dylan is a bridge too far. Never liked him .Never got past his nasal whine. He is up there for me with Van Morrison and Neil Diamond. Fine musicians all but they left me cold. Not sure why though.
    Anyway a song.

    My God - Jethro Tull Live at the Isle of Wight 1970

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BJoLD6eG-4

  • 126
    Tricot
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:00 pm | Permalink

    By the way, was there feedback of any kind, anywhere other than PB, on the joust between Rudd and Bolt a day or two ago?

    If Rudd had been nailed with a “gotcha” I don’t suppose we would have heard the end of it.

    Meanwhile Rudd 10 = Bolt 2?

  • 127
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:00 pm | Permalink

    True Carey silly me :(

  • 128
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

    Poroti Dylan music is all I can sing without sounding like I’m singing out of tune.

  • 129
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:02 pm | Permalink

    Why did Mr Abbott have his wife answer questions on childcare policy today. I realise she is probably a wonderful wife and mother and that she runs a community day care centre, but surely Sussan Ley should have got the gig?

  • 130
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:02 pm | Permalink

    Nationals Leader is still a promotion though :-)

  • 131
    pithicus
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

    thick as a brick still my all time fave album and artist.

  • 132
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

    davidwh

    if only I could jig the way I did then without suffering for days after. Ahh memories.

    I learned the difference between singing and what I could manage trying to sing along with Clare Torry (sp?) in That Great Gig in the Sky.

    Some guy (who shall be nameless) I was around at the time suggested he could hear me sing like that all day … which was a borderline creepy sort of complement ;-)

    Memories indeed

  • 133
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

    oops … compliment …

  • 134
    Tricot
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

    And now, according to current new item “The Coalition expects the government to go to the elections in September”.

    What happened to the certitude of “Rudd will go to an August election” stuff?

    Where are you Andrew Probyn?

  • 135
    poroti
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

    davidwh

    Never looked at it that way. Very good point.

  • 136
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

    The last time I saw Dylan was when he toured with Tom Petty, I will never bother again.

    Tom Petty on the other hand, any time he is near.

  • 137
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

    poroti

    Hooray! I’ve finally found someone else who doesn’t appreciate Neil Diamond’s whiny phrases. One of the few serious disagreements I have with my OH.

  • 138
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

    davidwh,

    Dennis Commetti has promised me that this suggestion would get a run if it ever happened.

    Nat Fyffe star Fremantle midfielder goes in to a pack, cops a head high tackle and reels out with blood trickling from his mouth.

    “Well! That’s one tooth free for Fyffe”.

  • 139
    my say
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:07 pm | Permalink

    I don’t recall mrs howard having anything said about her because she went to timor

    what is wrong with people

    do u know what I think jealousy

    my mother use to get jealous of people in her gen, who had the returned serviced gold card when they didn’t

    when dad acquired it she told everyone.

    get my meaning.

    my husband travelled with his work for 10 years our marriage went through a couple of rough patches

    if I could of travelled just and again with him I think it would of been great for

    us we marry to be with each other so good on therese

    and Jeanette

    ——————————the polls
    there will be polcies from labor, that none of know about

    and as far as we know the liberals have little to offer

    so why do some people think this is where the election polls will be , this is just the start

    sickens me to read all the negative stuff
    I think some people want us to lose
    \
    to say well I told you so,,,,blah blah

    glory at the beginning of every new poll headline you are usualy first with some negative word

    and confession at the begining of the last one
    something about moving to turnbull

    my goodness we don’t need that anther hurdle

    makes one wonder sometimes

    we have ad about two and half years of horror polls and depression, its about time the depressing people pulled their heads in

    and gave thanks and rejoiced at where we are now

  • 140
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:07 pm | Permalink

    Dylan is a bridge too far. Never liked him .Never got past his nasal whine.

    Yes but like David, he doesn’t make it seem as if your singing is too bad. I also fancied (when I was 10) I could paint like Picasso in his cubist period or (later) perhaps Jackson Pollock …

    Of course, that was because I simply didn’t understand what I was seeing. Dylan spoke with his lyrics and his paradigm. I think he borrowed a fair bit from Woody Guthrie of course.

  • 141
    citizen
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    So, there are only 17% of Australian voters who, given a free choice, prefer Abbott as prime minister.

    The shockjock callers continue to say Abbott isn’t trying hard enough. I heard a snippet of the Chris Smith show today where a caller said Abbott was a shy person who should be encouraged to visit more schools and shopping centres!

  • 142
    Flaneur
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    ...like I’m singing out of tune.

    Do your friends stand up and walk out on you?

  • 143
    Tricot
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    Jethro Tull invented the seed drill and died in 1741.

    Is there another Jethro Tull?

  • 144
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

    Agree with you on Neil Diamond and Van Morrison though.

    Neil Young on the other hand …

  • 145
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

    Newman news:
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/together-union-to-hold-mass-rally-as-lastminute-pay-offer-of-22-per-cent-is-rejected/story-fnihsrf2-1226687488459

  • 146
    my say
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

    http://johnmenadue.com/blog/?author=1

    Greens have taken a “holier-than-thou” political position and have sided with Tony Abbott in the Senate on the key issue of the agreement with Malaysia. The Greens and many NGOs have wanted the government to undertake a political ‘mission impossible’.
    =========================================================

    for peg,, for fran and jv

  • 147
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:10 pm | Permalink

    lizzie,

    Hands, touching hands, reaching out, Touching you. Touching me……..

    What was that all about?

  • 148
    pithicus
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:10 pm | Permalink

    Tricot *143 surely you jest?

  • 149
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:11 pm | Permalink

    Tricot,

    You’d have to be thick as a brick not to know the answer to that!

  • 150
    poroti
    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 6:11 pm | Permalink

    lizzie

    Yay, another that knows it was “Red red whine” :lol:

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