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Jul 31, 2013

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The weekly BludgerTrack update erases the 0.5% edge the Coalition gained in the wake of last week’s Newspoll, and finds Labor the tiniest fraction more likely than the Coalition to win a majority of seats. Labor has made a net gain of two on the seat projection, Queensland again showing its sensitivity with a two-seat shift on the basis of a very small vote change and a second gain projected for Labor in Western Australia (though I’d be a bit careful with the smaller state results at the moment, polling at that level having become leaner recently). This has been counterbalanced by a one seat move to the Coalition in New South Wales, where the Labor score remains on the cusp of 25 and 26.

The primary and two-party vote results are all but identical to the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which is the weightiest of the new data points. Included as always are Morgan, which was unusually soft for Labor this week, and Essential, which retains its slight lean to the Coalition relative to the rest of the field but has perhaps been trending slightly to Labor over the past few weeks. The one very bad new poll for Labor, the weekend’s ReachTEL result showing Labor to lose three of its four Tasmanian seats, has been included in the state relativities calculation. While its inclusion has weakened Labor’s two-party vote projection in the state by nearly 3% in relative terms, the model is not persuaded that Lyons will be joining Bass and Braddon on the casualty list.

The trendlines on the sidebar now paint a picture of monotonous consistency since the Rudd restoration, the so-called “sugar hit” having endured long enough to offer the Coalition real cause for alarm. However, very close observation of the primary votes provides some indication of movement beneath the surface. A poll aggregator like BludgerTrack presumes to have a margin of error of a bit over 1%, and while this is founded on dubious assumptions, it at least gives a rough pointer to the size of movement that should and shouldn’t interest us. One move outside the range concerns the Greens, who opened their account under Rudd at around 9%, sagged nearly a full point by the time of the asylum seeker policy announcement (remembering the margin of error diminishes the further a result gets from 50%), and have now recovered back to the starting point.

The other noteworthy change involves the “others” vote, which started the year at around 10%, increased to 12.5% as Labor bled primary vote support in the last six months under Julia Gillard, snapped back to around 9% when Rudd returned, and has trended downwards over the past four weeks to its present 7.5%. Part of that may have been absorbed by the Coalition in a general trend resulting from the media losing interest in some of the minor players, but it seems intuitively likely that a greater share comes from Labor leaners who have been won over after initial hesitancy by Rudd’s political initiatives. There may have been some deflation in the Rudd honeymoon balloon going on concurrently, with the Coalition primary vote at least holding level and perhaps rising slightly, but Rudd’s evident political successes have at the very least cancelled it out.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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3191 comments

3,191 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

  1. izatso?

    A US military judge has convicted Bradley Manning of espionage, leaving him facing a lengthy jail term despite clearing him on the most serious charge that he “aided the enemy”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/

  2. Smaug

    Sounds like we might have a September election. Rather in line with what Julia declared so the Tory’s can’t complain to much. Personally early September would be good as I’m on a Cruise late August and get to miss at least a week of the campaign.
    The fact that the longer Rudd has managed things the numbers have crawled towards 50/50 gives reason to the ever more strident calls by Abbott and Hockey for an election. They are hollow men with nothing other than slogans. What policies they do present end up looking rather sad when the numbers are run.
    The fact is they have one policy above all others. Get rid of the NBN, all else I’d peripheral. This is why news corpse is always beside/behind them and Rupert (when he isn’t partaking of a certain redhead along with most of his management team apparently) is so desperate to see Labor gone.

  3. BK

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    This trio will put the wind up Credlin and Co. The digital “spoof” guy will have plenty of material to work with!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/rudd-flies-in-team-obama-20130730-2qxet.html
    The key questions on this tawdry issue is which party approached the other and for what purpose?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalitions-tent-city-trip-funded-by-logistics-company-that-provides-tents-20130730-2qws3.html
    The Nauruan trip has urned to sh!t for Tone and Morriscum. Karma.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/nauruan-mp-warns-against-tents-20130730-2qxhp.html
    So Mother Milne thinks the boats will stop if 10000 are allowed to fly in via Indonesia every year? These 10000 will have been assessed as genuine refugees one would assume, so what would those who don’t qualify do?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/caring-greens-unveil-asylum-policy-to-increase-nations-refugee-intake-20130730-2qxf0.html
    Wow! The Guardian’s Katherine Murphy puts the boot in to Abbott and Morriscum for playing the voters as mugs. Cop that Libs!
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jul/30/tony-abbott-nauru-tent-city
    Yes Mr Gordon, but who initiates the carping?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/manus-titfortat-only-helps-the-people-smugglers-20130730-2qwlf.html
    And the portents for Essendon are looking more and more ominous.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/dons-told-drug-was-not-legal-20130730-2qxqq.html
    Now St Kilda joins the fray.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/saints-in-drug-probe-20130730-2qxha.html

  4. BK

    Section 2 . . .

    MUST SEE! Alan Moir has a very frustrated Popeye.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    ANOTHER MUST SEE! David Rowe with Abbott’s and Morriscum’s tent city.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    A good one from David Pope.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg on Abboott’s proposed use of the armed forces.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

    BK is heading to Canberra today and returning on Sunday. I plan to maintain the Dawn Patrol wile away.

  5. izatso?

    Thank you BK ….

    I suspect Rowe has crossed the line somewhat, exposing Abbotts *no shame* approach.

  6. Al Dente

    3 years of throwing everything and the kitchen sink at this government, and precisely the same result as the 2010 poll at this point.

    Who’d be an Opposition politician? S:)

  7. adrian

    How strange! Nothing on ABC 7.00am news about Tollgate.
    And tent city was such a big story for them yesterday morning…

  8. Smaug

    The trouble is that the libs haven’t been an opposition. They only ever attacked the government. A real opposition should certainly attack the government but also be offering alternative policy so that come election day the voters have a choice and an understanding.
    In three weeks Rudd has managed to neutralise everything Abbott has as all he has done is attack and say No.

  9. Gaffhook

    Fact checking of Abbotts speech to the Australia-Israel Chamber of commerce contains more than 20 lies. Here’s the top fifteen deliberate lies.the idiot is compulsive and an MSM backed joke on all Australians.

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/tony-abbotts-latest-15-lies/

  10. lizzie

    Looking back at the dubious use of American strategies in the 2007 campaign (and the subsequent failed strategies in 2010).
    [Arbib and Bitar soon brought the Americans in for the 2010 campaign. One of the firm’s principals, Jeremy Rosner, flew to Australia with some of his staff and was heavily involved in the campaign.

    Rosner’s work, according to his biography, as ”a pollster, campaign consultant, strategic adviser, and expert on international affairs focuses heavily on the transitional countries of central Europe and Latin America”.

    Rosner’s firm uses a rigid template in researching the electorate, no doubt very useful to help the Americans impose order on the chaos of wildly divergent countries, many of which are new to democracy.

    It’s a technique, however, that the Labor dream team could not work with.

    The creative advertising mind behind the Kevin ’07 campaign, Neil Lawrence, refused to operate with the American approach and walked away. He went on to create the ads for Anna Bligh’s victory in Queensland and the mining industry’s campaign against Labor’s proposed mining tax.

    The pollster who had conducted focus group research for the Kevin ’07 campaign, Tony Mitchelmore, tried the American approach but found it hard to work with. He was largely pushed aside as a result.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-focus-proved-unfocused-20110204-1agt2.html?skin=text-only

  11. daretotread

    Lizzie

    For once we can agree.

    There is a whole mob of Obama/USA enthusiasts in the ALP who just Luuuuurrrrve the US methods. Very prominent in this mob is a good friend of mine

    Still think it is stupid, stupid, stupid.

  12. AussieAchmed

    Morrison claiming this has always been Opposition policy.

    Still ignoring the bi-partisan agreement to dismantle the Pacific Solution.

  13. Tom Hawkins

    [There is a whole mob of Obama/USA enthusiasts in the ALP who just Luuuuurrrrve the US methods. Very prominent in this mob is a good friend of mine]

    The LNP use of Tea Party tactics and advertising needs to be combated effectively so it’s a smart move to consult with those who assisted with Obama’s re-election. I think this is a good move.

  14. mari

    From other Thread

    BK
    Have a great time in Canberra. Are you seeing LBD and CTAR! will you get out safely? 😀

  15. victoria

    Morning all

    BK enjoy your trip to the capital. 🙂

    Today’s cartoons are a ripper!!

  16. lizzie

    DTT

    Always good to find points of agreement 😉

  17. citizen

    [How strange! Nothing on ABC 7.00am news about Tollgate.
    And tent city was such a big story for them yesterday morning…]

    That’s because Murdoch media this morning has moved onto other things – Tollgate is so ‘yesterday’.

  18. lizzie

    Tom H

    The point of the article linked in #15 was that American methods do not automatically succeed in Oz.

  19. daretotread

    The US methods involve repeated contact with people to the point of making them ill (quite deliberately). Not sure it works well here, especially with compulsory voting.

    We do NOT need to energise the base. Just make them like us. This makes our system VERY different from the US and UK.

  20. OzPol Tragic

    Good morning, Dawn Patrol.

    On a relatively quiet morning, so far, importation of US Democratic staffers to help with the campaign seems to be antiALP hissy-fit de jour.

    I do note the “negative” side of this debate is blatantly ignoring the fact that Howard’s son was in Washington helping with the 2nd Dubya Bush campaign; BorisJ is Mayor of London thanks to Howard’s campaign “star” Aussie Lynton Crosby, who’s now “minding” PM Cameron – but not, one suspects, for long, given the clients for whom LC also lobbies.

    One of Abbott’s most rabid “stars” – can’t recall whether it’s Morrison or Bernardi – actually spends time in the USA with Tea Party big-wigs, and Abbott’s Opposition tactics were far more GOP/Tea Party than genuinely Australian.

    Gawd!

    Bring on Abbott’s next silly Stunt of the Day, I say. As long as it’s not done-to-death boats – though I think that’s wishful thinking, given he seemingly really hasn’t any positive policy to defend.

  21. daretotread

    OPT

    Large numbers of LNP types visit US campaigning conferences regularly, mind you I think that was when Clive Palmer paid.

  22. victoria

    The polls are showing a statistical tie. The campaign is going to be super important. As posited by OPT and others, the coalition have employed tea party tactics over the past four years. Rudd getting expertise in campaigning in the digital area is a good move

  23. Tom Hawkins

    [The point of the article linked in #15 was that American methods do not automatically succeed in Oz.]

    That was obvious but my point is that Tea Party style advertising needs to be dealt with and who better to have in your team than those who have effectively dealt with it first hand. That will be just one strategy amongst many I would think. If anyone is suggesting that the whole campaign would be handed over to these imports then they would be way off the mark IMO but I suppose journalists do have those column inches to fill each and every day.

  24. confessions

    Morning all.

    This is something I’ve been discussing with friends about job-seeking today: your whole life is Googleable, so you can’t embelish about past roles without being caught. Someone has twigged that future politicians will be forced into more honesty and integrity as a result of our internet footprint:

    [Kevin Rudd’s selfie photo of his shaving cut was intended to feed the electorate’s hunger for honest or genuine leaders. It represents an apparently charming willingness to exhibit his personal failings by Twitter – in this case a fondness for blunt razors – in the hope of minting a new reputation. But it still amounts to a highly controlled form of political spin, which we know the electorate despises.

    There will soon be a generation of political leaders made honest and genuine merely by the volume of public data available on their past. This data will be ubiquitous, stunning in its depth and accuracy, and totally impossible to deny. Importantly, it will be beyond control or shaped political messaging.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/future-politicians-will-have-nowhere-to-hide-20130730-2qx70.html#ixzz2aZNDrbkZ

  25. victoria

    Btw asylum seekers are in the process of being transferred to Manus Island this morning

  26. OzPol Tragic

    On a quiet morning, a couple of fascinating articles from HuffPost; one astronomical, one psych/sociological (pity about the headline’s ambiguous “?grammar”)

    Coronal Hole Seen Over Sun’s North Pole By SOHO Spacecraft

    6 Things You Thought Wrong About Introverts

    Both interesting reading.

  27. confessions

    Team Obama helping the ALP is not new. There was a report of the ALP cherry picking some of the Democrat methods around 3 – 4 years ago. I don’t have a problem with it.

  28. triton

    dtt, if these are smart people, and they probably are, then they will be aware that their methods in the U.S. do not necessarily translate directly to this country. To borrow a fragment from Donald Rumsfeld, I’d expect them to be smart enough to know what they don’t know. They will have to study the country and its culture and past election campaigns to be able to give good advice. You would also expect them to get plenty of assistance from ALP strategists pointing out what they don’t think will work here. And I’m sure that the first thing they will learn is that we have compulsory voting and the huge difference that makes.

  29. eden knight

    “Piers Morgan is a very good and tenacious interviewer. I wish he was here in Australia”

    God no. Please no.

  30. AussieAchmed

    Bad weather prevented the plane, sent to transfer asylum seekers for transfer to PNG, landing on Christmas Is.

  31. Andrew

    Quite apart from the serious conflict of interest issues (and where are the OM that were so worried about utegate) and policy on the run (fancy the deputy PM not knowing of a major policy shift, or not even a one page outline available at the time), it seems so unbelievably stupid for the party of stop the boats to trumpet an expansion in detention facilities.

    Are they trying to influence people smugglers now to sell this to customers- ie get on a boat cos the new govt might let u resettle in Aus ?

    It shows how panicked and bereft of policy they are.

    As for the ABC, sell it to Murdoch and be done with it. They are nothing but News Ltd parrots

  32. AussieAchmed

    The Business Council is still insisting the Fair Work Act is hurting labour productivity. pic.twitter.com/OCKZkkMhQE

  33. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    Hysterical (in every sense) editorial in the AFR today saying that the business community is desperately disappointed that Abbott won’t be getting a big majority to spend two terms introducing sweeping reform.
    Isn’t that an oxymoron putting “Abbott” and “sweeping reform” in the same sentence. Are they totally unhinged? Well, yes.
    What a scummy right-wing rag the AFR has become.

  34. womble

    Morning All

    Greens are releasing their asylum seeker policy today – increasing intake to 30000, more money for regional processing by the UNHCR – won’t necessarily “stop the boats” but the start of a much better alternative imo

    Also like that Christine is trying to appeal to the best in people, not the worst

    September 7 makes a hell of a lot more sense than holding off any longer, hopefully they make it happen

    Biggest news of course is the “black ops” being run by the Bombers – the story is getting bigger by the day. Interesting, according to the ABC, Dank and Hird thought that Collingwood, Hawthorn and West Coast were all on the gear as well.

  35. mari

    Confessions

    Thank you for Chris Hadfield pic, I was asking the other day if you had some more

  36. daretotread

    Triton

    I very much want to agree with you BUT I know some of the US “campaignophiles” and they are not for turning or common sense.

    I assume (hope) that Hawker and co DO have common sense and will reign in the excesses of the US style campaigning.

    Use the good things but never just adopt the strategy wholus-bolus.

    Aussies do NOT like endless phone calls and a re alittle more bullshit resistant I think.

  37. victoria

    womble

    What has stunned me the most in the Essendon saga, is Hird taking on Demetriou and the AFL.

  38. lizzie

    DTT

    The people managing the campaign are also important – Karl Bitar and the NSW group were far too controlling, apparently.

  39. womble

    It’s an interesting move Victoria – nothing to lose is my guess. Wait and see though

    Better get to work, have a great day all

  40. confessions

    victoria:

    Do you think Hird will eventually stand down?

    I haven’t really paid much attention to the Essendon stuff, but I watched 730 last night and was stunned at just how involved in the program he was.

  41. victoria

    [Treasurer Chris Bowen has announced a five year freeze on any ‘major changes’ to superannuation laws effective immediately.]

  42. Carey Moore

    So, after Sean accused us the other day of being desperate for asserting the polling trend was essentially 50-50, Bludgertrack confirms it.

  43. OzPol Tragic

    DTT

    [We do NOT need to energise the base. Just make them like us. This makes our system VERY different from the US and UK.]

    I’d guess the US Democrats are here to add Obama’s very successful social networking & “Get out the votes” strategies. As Rudd’s daughter has already started Labor’s Social Media Networking-based Youth Campaign, I’d expect the “imports” to strengthen that and – given Oz voting laws ensure the vote “gets out” – perhaps focus more on the over 55 vote.

    As left/ALP-leaning Baby Boomers & other ‘l’iberals from the 1960s-early70s (veterans of “Scrap the WAP”, Environmental protection, Aboriginal Rights inc the referendum, antiConscription, antiWar campaigns & street-marches, early Amnesty International letter-writers) flood into that (imo too stupidly comprehensive, when it’s far from cohesive) demographic bloc, it should become Labor Heartland.

    GenBlue is, as OpPolls & Gov Stats show, second only to GenZ in its use of Internet & IT devices – more “switched on” & “online” than Gens X & Y. Developing campaign materials to suit that younger (in the main home owners, “grey nomads”, well-educated, widely-travelled, Rock’n’Roll Youthquaker) end of that demographic is a challenge no election campaign I’ve seen even tries to meet.

  44. jenauthor

    [How strange! Nothing on ABC 7.00am news about Tollgate.
    And tent city was such a big story for them yesterday morning…]

    Unless deemed newsworthy by Rupert, journalist’s attention to stories is equivalent to the attention span of a gnat

  45. guytaur

    Good Morning

    Greg Barnes has called for Senator Carr to explain himself in the wake of the Manning decision regarding Assange and Wikileaks. Quite rightly in my opinion. Too much kow towing from Australia to the US.
    We need to take a leaf out of the New Zealand book.
    ———————————————-

    When I first heard of the use of the US Obama social media expert it was also reported that the Blair equivalent was also hired. So I think the signs are there it is not going to be US centric. Just getting experts in the field.

  46. victoria

    confessions

    Hird has maintained he has done nothing wrong. Therefore he does not see any reason why he should stand down. The Essendon supporter base want him to remain coach.
    I have a personal view re Hird and it has less to do with what may have actually occurred, but rather the manner in which he has conducted himself over the past six months.

  47. Carey Moore

    RE: US political campaigning.

    Sorry to break it to you but both parties draw heavy inspiration from their US counterparts (i.e Labor – Democrats, Coalition – GOP) and often new techniques you see in the field in an American election is a preview of what you’ll see in an Australian election in a few years time. Lament it all you want but it works.

    Of course there are elements of US political campaigning that don’t translate here or aren’t necessary here but they are usually omitted.

    Complain all you want about it but our two countries have very similar cultures.

  48. dave

    Carey Moore@44


    So, after Sean accused us the other day of being desperate for asserting the polling trend was essentially 50-50, Bludgertrack confirms it.

    Menzies House has a major recall on, then reprograming, buttheir hearts are not in it.

    Losing another unloseable as a real possibilty is slowly sinking in.

  49. guytaur

    victoria

    Essondon. Whatever it takes came from somewhere. Maybe it was Hird.

  50. confessions

    [I’d guess the US Democrats are here to add Obama’s very successful social networking & “Get out the votes” strategies.]

    It started years ago, it isn’t new, so I don’t know why people are so anxious about this, much less why the SMH are leading with the story as some kind of big scoop.

    Getting young people to enrol to vote this election is essential for all parties, and I would be surprised if Labor isn’t emulating the Democrat strategies of getting people out to vote.

    This, from last year shows how long the ALP has been flirting with Team Obama:

    [In 2008, Obama — using BSD — managed to corral over $200 million in donations and 1 million Facebook friends. The technology was recently employed in Dilma Rousseff’s triumphant campaign for the Brazilian presidency and is being used by Obama again this year.

    In 2009, BSD founder Ben Self consulted with then-PM Kevin Rudd on how to best harness social networking.

    And in 2010, Allen was a key player — alongside Hawker — in designing the party’s campaign website buttressed by initiatives like an “ideas incubator” and Twitter and Facebook links. ]
    http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/03/22/alp-considering-jumping-on-bamas-tech-bandwagon/?wpmp_switcher=mobile

    So chill out people, and stop jumping at shadows. 🙂

  51. my say

    I would assume that the democrats know more about the

    tea party than we do, I doubt the flag waving American style will be part of the scene, just good sound advice about the tea party lot.

    ===================================

    now if he didn’t do that or as some love to say thinks he

    knows everything,,,got no help
    then there would also be complaints

    =============================================================

    I opened one of bks links the juno from somewhere or other
    wtte thinks rudd better have the election because something about the economy turning sour, wtte.

    the last few days I have noted the Kouk and there has not been much bad data around.

    typical negative,, line so if there was bad economic
    news this juno thinks hockey would be better I suppose ,

    u have to laugh at the media

  52. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    WOMBLE – I’m amazed at how lacking in ambition the Greens are. We should be taking at least 40,000 refugees a year.
    But I suppose the low figure is a smokescreen because Milne knows that with open borders we’ll be getting 100,000 per annum before you know it. Saying 30,000 is her way of saying there isn’t really a problem.
    For “won’t necessarily stop the boats” I read “won’t stop the drownings”.
    Don’t the greens understand that, as Doogie Cameron points out, unless there is an orderly queue, the Australian population will jack up about taking more asylum seekers.

  53. dave

    [ How strange! Nothing on ABC 7.00am news about Tollgate.
    And tent city was such a big story for them yesterday morning… ]

    Blowflies on manus are more newsworthy ‘apparently’.

  54. PoK

    [Doesn’t low interest rates mean the economy is rooted?]

    Well, it certainly means it’s rooted for me, but self funded retirees are hated on bludger.

  55. confessions

    victoria:

    I can’t see how he can hang on when all around him are dropping like flies.

    I suppose we’ll just have to wait to see what the report reveals.

  56. fredex

    Big business wants to increase GST, cut income taxes, introduce industrial ‘reforms’ [sic], change productivity [presumably not of the managerial class] ….

    This is a real challenge for the ALP.
    A real challenge.

    The boss of the bosses, the head of the Business Council of Aust has met with Rudd.
    I hope Rudd is aware that when you sup with the devil you use a long spoon.

    Will the ALP/Rudd tell him and his mates to go jump or will we see the govt wimp out when facing their major opposition?

    “The Conversation” has the details, via Grattan of all people.

  57. victoria

    Confessions

    Hird was a great player, but i have no respect for him now.

  58. Carey Moore

    [Menzies House has a major recall on, then reprograming, buttheir hearts are not in it.

    Losing another unloseable as a real possibilty is slowly sinking in.]

    I’m sure Sean’s spin will be that at “peak Rudd” we can only get 50-50, so we’re finished. Or something like that…

  59. daretotread

    PoK

    I am sympathetic to SFR. Not sure if I will soon be one of them or not – depends but it is a big issue that all parties need to address.

  60. guytaur

    Another point about MSM hyperventilating about the Obama campaign team helping Labor.

    The reports make Labor look good to the voting public just reading the headlines. President Obama campaigning seen as a success.

  61. OzPol Tragic

    Carey

    [So, after Sean accused us the other day of being desperate for asserting the polling trend was essentially 50-50, Bludgertrack confirms it.]

    Ah, WS Gilbert, in HMS Pinafore, nailed Sean & other political mouthpieces – probably the most cheerfully blighting depiction EVAH of the way rich time-servers are promoted way beyond their competence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpJ_IAUs8nI

    [And I always voted at my party’s call,
    And I never thought of thinking for myself at all.

    (Chorus) He never thought of thinking of himself at all.

    I thought so little, they rewarded me …]

  62. triton

    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@35

    Hysterical (in every sense) editorial in the AFR today saying that the business community is desperately disappointed that Abbott won’t be getting a big majority to spend two terms introducing sweeping reform.
    Isn’t that an oxymoron putting “Abbott” and “sweeping reform” in the same sentence. Are they totally unhinged? Well, yes.
    What a scummy right-wing rag the AFR has become.

    That’s Stutchbury’s AFR for you. Isn’t Abbott’s vision for the country “competent government”?

  63. confessions

    victoria:

    My brother used to play footy with Hird before he went to Melbourne and mum used to teach him at school.

    They both speak highly of him as a person, so I was shocked to hear of the text messages he and Reid (???) and Robinson were reportedly exchanging.

  64. victoria

    confessions

    I am not shocked about Hird at all

  65. my say

    Well, it certainly means it’s rooted for me, but self funded retirees are hated on bludger.
    =============================================================
    so with respect does that mean fully funded.

    we are not fully funded, but now find it impossible to save.
    delving more into our supper, little thing come up , like the vet this past week, 600, dollars

    ( love our dog so much it could be 2000 and we would still pay it}
    then seems like my root canal that cost me 2000 in fed

    is on the way out .
    so I know what u mean,,,, 4 percent in the bank not much better in super, have some in bonds and a gold aussie shares.

    then there is staying in private cover which we have done so I get really annoyed with people here when complain about long waiting lists and they actually work.

    but JUST THINK IF the libs where in
    we are on a lot of pension and then super,

    but then we know of people who are complaining to have two rentals, and boats and seaside shacks

    so I suppose we cannot have it all ways, we only have our family home which is not included in assets.
    and two cars, there is no way I am parting with my independence and only having one car.

    so all in all we are not that badly off,
    my thoughts are that the children have
    big business loans and if it turned nasty and IT WOULD WITH ABBOTT LIKE BACK TO 12 PERCENT INT. RATES IT would cripple the young people and we would be helping them
    so all in all it balances out.

  66. confessions

    Another policy!

    [Union officials would face the same penalties for criminal offences as company directors, under a coalition anti-corruption policy to be unveiled by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott today.

    The Opposition has long railed against the legislative discrepancies underpinning the oversight of union bosses compared to company chiefs.

    Under the Fair Work Act, registered organisations and their officers are only exposed to civil penalties with the potential for comparatively modest fines of up to $10,200, whereas company directors can be subject to criminal penalties including personal fines of up to $340,000 and up to five years imprisonment.

    Since mid-2012, Fair Work Australia has launched well over 20 new inquiries and investigations into alleged breaches of compliance rules by registered organisations and 13 of them are currently ongoing.

    Mr Abbott has promised that a coalition government would move swiftly to improve the standard of registered organisations, introducing legislation in the first sitting week of the next Parliament.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/18244541/abbott-targets-union-bosses-in-crime-policy/

    Gee, moving on from boats so soon?!

  67. mikehilliard

    Morning all.

    I don’t want to offend anybody but if low interest rates help put roofs over peoples heads verses a decent return on an investment I would have to say I support the former.

  68. BK

    The plane leaving CI for Manus Island has been delayed by bad weather.
    “You can’t trust the BOM! The government has strong-armed the meteorologists”, says Abbott.

  69. guytaur

    Hopefully the LNP will do over reach on this

    “@joeobrien24: NSW ICAC report due out sometime after 1030 .. stay with @abcnews24 for the latest with reporter @JamelleWellsABC”

  70. mikehilliard

    mysay@68 – you said it better than me. 🙂

  71. dave

    The business councils ‘demands’ are in AFR, Fairfax and Bus Spectator today – the same old, same old entitlement mentality.

    Pity is, they think they can pull the same stunt as the miners did last election, but their problem is Labor owe them nothing.

    The business council have, as usual backed the tories to the hilt while undermining consumer confidence against their own self interest for over 3 years. Think buffoons like gerry harvey.

    Now they think they deserve a tax cut at others expense.

    Swan had the correct reply – tell us what deductions you are prepared to give up in return and just forget about increasing the GST or a return to work choices.

    They will be left out in the cold if Labor win unless they building bridges and quickly.

    rudd has made some reconciliation noises but they have to get away from their entitlement mentality, eg article in fairfax estimates they want $12 b in tax cuts.

  72. victoria

    guytaur

    I wonder if Rudd is going to visit the GG after the ICAC report is released this morning. Nothing like a distraction……….

  73. my say

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-30/coalition-accused-of-conflict-of-interest-over-nauru-tent-plan/4854280

    ===========================================================

    HAS TWITTER POWER WORKED AGAIN

    or have they just decided to be last?

  74. guytaur

    victoria

    Maybe if its September 7 🙂

    my say

    One thing about ABC. Slow to put it up. Once its up it stays for a while

  75. AussieAchmed

    I’ve never seen a Union go bankrupt and destroy the lives of shareholders and employees.

    I’ve not seen a Union award themselves 30% pay rises while the “business” has had a$150million dollar loss and then tell workers to take a pay cut or the business will close.

    Unions don’t do things like the Board of a national airline. No dividends to shareholders for 2 years while they spend $420 million buying the company shares to use as bonuses for the Board.

    Or the company that accepted millions in federal funding to keep it operating only to have the Board award themselves up to 60% pay rise, close the company in Australia and re-open overseas. The pay rises the Board awarded themselves would have funded a redundancy package for the workers of around $30k per worker.

    Or the CEO who declares company bankrupt with shareholders losing their life savings while the CEO continues living a millionaire lifestyle.

  76. mikehilliard

    mysay – ABC finally caved in last night on Tollgate, they must have been reading PB.

  77. victoria

    If the election is called today for the 7th September, it will mean that there will be 38 days until election day

  78. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    VICTORIA – I strongly suspect that if it wasn’t for the report he would have already visited the GG. He’ll give it a couple of days to wash out of the system, then visit the GG.

  79. victoria

    K17

    Yep. Team Labor have been waiting for the ICAC report before heading off to visit the GG

  80. dave

    [ HAS TWITTER POWER WORKED AGAIN]

    My Say – that article was put up on the ABC website last last night – over 11 hours ago so they can say they ran it.

    The salient point is it never made the main bulletins last night.

    Today is shaping up to be NSW Labor @ ICAC ‘poison’.

  81. guytaur

    victoria

    I actually think its going to be October. If he thought he could I suspect PMKR would go for November.

    I do think the pick of September 14 was for important reasons by PMJG and thus I do not think it will be earlier than that.

    The team is being assembled as we read. The team has to have time to work. The Obama campaign social media strategy was always long not short term.

    So I see the signs pointing to later rather than sooner

  82. my say

    mike MIKE

    we had 12 percent and up to 15 we had to pay in interest our sons ( one son in law it s dutch custom to call them both sons}

    have pharmacies, now they don’t as yet own them but hats off to them for at such a young age going in to business

    I don’t want my daughter ( NO daughter in law yet wish there was] so does son by the way.

    have the worries we had, I still get tears when I remember moving out or out beloved home ,

    and being told by a nasty nasty liberal senator\
    GET A JOB DEAR

    frazer gov. I never have any empathy with frazer and what he says now, and to cap that off he was army minister when

    oh won the raffle for national service

    so when I see people here write about nice mr frazer

    well enough said

  83. OzPol Tragic

    Today’s Chris Hadfield is Ferrara, Italy.
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=641308375886903&set=a.157475407603538.32702.151680104849735&type=1&theater

    Interesting photo. Thanks, Fess.

    BTW, for crime/detective fiction fans, Ferrara is home city of (sub-titled) Inspector Soneri – the gloomy, fog-shrouded, urban reverse to sunny Sicily’s Montalbano; but with the same problems – those both share with their Scandinavian & UK equivalents, and ours; including AS, illegal immigrants, drugs & crime “barons”.

    Though, as with Montalbano, coffee, food & vino play significant mouth-watering roles (I wish those cooks would emigrate here. Now! To have that sardine/ clam/ crab spaghetti, sauces etc available just down the road …), as does the inevitable phone call as soon as the Inspector starts eating.

    Short of a substantial Lotto win, I’ll probably never get back on an OS Jet Plane (I can’t get health insurance), so I treasure video-tourism’s revived memories & new experiences my detective series’ phreak “fixes” provide. 🙂

  84. victoria

    guytaur

    Going to an election in October, would necessitate a return to parliament on August 20. Not a good move for team Labor in my view. Rudd’s strength is campagining. Returning to parliament with the minority govt in the HOR is not wise

  85. guytaur

    @smh: The ‘iTunes of higher education’: Courses from two major universities will be online & free next year. http://t.co/WesIUEP2NI via @jo_tovey

    Finally Overseas Uni’s have been doing this for years

  86. guytaur

    victoria

    Yes I know the argument about parliament. I do not buy it.

    Parliament is the major weakness for the LNP and I think the cross bench support for Labor will be stronger.

  87. victoria

    guytaur

    I disagree. The coalition will accuse team Rudd of being scared to go to an election, and go with the meme of chaos in the govt. too risky in my view

  88. AussieAchmed

    victoria

    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Going to an election in October, would necessitate a return to parliament on August 20. Not a good move for team Labor in my view. Rudd’s strength is campagining. Returning to parliament with the minority govt in the HOR is not wise
    ——————————————————

    be an interesting tactic to have Parliament sit before the election.

    Introduce legislation to remove the carbon price and move to ETS. How would Abbott vote? Against the legislation and keep the “big bad tax”?

    It would funny to watch him twisting and turning so much he’d look like a pretzel

  89. daretotread

    Victoria

    I just cannot see an election on 7 September. The G20 is then and while normally this might be missed Australia takes over the presidency and the next one is in Brisbane. It would be quite insulting NOT to be there, as well as very difficult for our public servants.

    I guess the GG could go but it would be pretty bizzare and we could not even send a Deputy PM or Treasurer given they both will be trying to hang on to semi marginal seats.

    September 21 is MORE likely and Rudd invites Abbott to Summit.

  90. Tricot

    The ABC might have caved in on Tollgate last night, but it must have been a dark cave as there is zilch, zero, nothing from the ABC on the story this morning.

    The West has touched upon it but more in terms of the general new “tent policy” for Nauru rather than the insider stuff. In part of this article it was noted that a Channel 7 cameraman went but that he had paid his way to the island.

    Incidentally, the AFR business writer (Hewitt?) now claims that Rudd “has always wanted to go late” though his colleagues might want to go earlier.

    For as much as her speculation is worth any more than anyone else’s she is speculating late September. Will be interesting to see if the new “popular” date of September 7 comes and goes.

    All the news in Perth is about the new local government boundaries which has essentially blotted out everything else.

  91. victoria

    AA

    Not worth the headache in my view. We shall see what team Labor decide to do, but delaying the election until October will be counterproductive

  92. lefty e

    I applaud the GRNs new policy on funding the regional UNHCRs and taking from those newly created queues in our annual offshore quota.

    Ive been arguing for this approach for years, and unlike the populist slop dished up by both our majors, this is not only the right thing to do, but will be far more effective in slowing unauthorised boat arrivals by the 90% who are refugees with nowhere else to go (as opposed to the 10% who are economic migrants).

    It gets rid of the peverse incentive to take boats that the LNP and ALP have created over years by not demonstrating clearly that patience, and a UNHCR refugee status determination, will actually get you somehwere evenutally.

  93. Carey Moore

    [Going to an election in October, would necessitate a return to parliament on August 20.]

    Not necessarily. Writs issued around that date can enable an election as late as 12 October.

    And there’s also proroguing parliament too (although it’s rarely a good look)

  94. victoria

    ddt

    Either the 7th or 21st september are the only dates left that dont necessitate a return to parliament

  95. guytaur

    victoria

    Abbott has been doing election now for three years. That has reached the “cry wolf” stage.

  96. lefty e

    The ALP would be wise to subtly replicate this (adjusting numbers if they want) as it make their other measures look like they are actually working.

  97. victoria

    CM

    This could happen, but it will mean that the campaign period is 53 days

  98. my say

    DAVE

    YES on twitter I sort of said that, seems they do things late

    just after 7 pm

    do they think we are stupid.
    but then only people like us notice it

    I keep suggesting on twitter that rudd sells the abc

    as u would think now they would be rather worried
    don’t they care about their own jobs in the future
    all any one wants is every news item to be important
    nothing more nothing less

    but I was quite taken aback when I saw wttee’ abbott is not worried about wtte polls ‘

    poor didums abbott I thought fancy an organization like the abc having that trailer at the bottom of the page
    it was so childish

    I hope rudd

    and it will be my very first email to him and I would hope everyone here

    his first thing in the new gov, is to do what has to be done to bring the abc back to the people

    other things are so bad their programs are disgraceful

    a lot of rubbishy things that some think is funny

    I want a class act from my abc

    where has all the opera gone, very small amounts where good. wonderful shows from overseas

    good English drama

    the the only things worth watching is q and I and grand design and then the renovator at 6 / 7 could be on later

    the aust. drama is cringe worthy

    I like the one called Doctor ( sorry cannot remember the the rest of the title with craig mclaughlin,

    and when they had the at home with Julia wtte

    that was the end for me. with the abc how dare they satire and sitting, p m

    start again, sweep it out go back to the roots and bring back quality

  99. Carey Moore

    [CM
    This could happen, but it will mean that the campaign period is 53 days]

    I know. I calculated it. 😛

    But, seriously, my point was to dispel the idea that Rudd must wait as long as possible to call a late election, lest parliament returns. There are ways around it.

  100. Sean Tisme

    Fairfax has admitted it lied and that Morrison never had a flight paid for by Toll.

    Why then do the Labor supporters keep lying about this story?

  101. The Big Ship

    With Newspoll to go into field tomorrow, the News Ltd/Coalition steam-powered smoke and mirrors machine must be revving up as we speak. What kind of hysterical beat-up will be blaring from the fear drenched pages of the usual suspects by tomorrow morning, then picked by the news aggregating drones that now pass for the diminished ABC?

    Will it be PM Rudd implicated in a kiddy porn ring?

    Treasurer Bowen involved in a noisome share scandal?

    Minister Burke accused of facilitating bubonic plague-ridden reffos to swarm ashore at all points of our girt-by-sea island fortress?

    As sure as night follows day, one can bank on a rabid and desperate reaction from the Coalition mouthpieces to the recent close results in other polling in an attempt to influence the self anointed ‘poll of record.’

  102. guytaur

    my say

    ABC doing satire of a sitting PM was not the problem.

    The problem is that the satire was a load of crap. Quality a dim distant memory

  103. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    lefty e – There is no way in hell that with an open door policy we will only get 30,000 refugees a year (as the Greens seems to be ingenuously pretending).
    Why would a refugee bother to go to a camp and join a queue which might still involve years of waiting when they can jump the queue by getting on a boat.
    What is the Green policy when arrivals start shooting north of 50,000?
    From a selfish point of view I would prefer to take boat arrivals (more motivated, probably better educated) than those who’ve sat around in camps for years. However, that is not what a refugee intake is supposed to be abouth.
    The Green’s policy will undoubtedly accelerate boat arrivals, and drownings, I’m afraid.

  104. dave

    [ Barclays reveals plans for £6bn cash call to plug capital gap

    Barclays asking shareholders to support rights issue as Bank of England shows the bank’s finances are in a worse state than previously thought]

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/jul/30/barclays-cash-call-6bn-capital-gap

    [ JPMorgan: $7 Billion In “Fines” In Just The Past Two Years

    There was a time when Jamie Dimon liked everyone to believe that his JPMorgan had a “fortress balance sheet”, that he was disgusted when the US government “forced” a bailout on it, and that no matter what the market threw its way it would be just fine, thanks.

    However JPMorgan Chase has been party to a series of very expensive legal settlements.

    Joshua Rosner, a financial analyst and co-author of Reckless Endangerment, in March estimated that the company’s litigation expenses since 2009 have totaled $16 billion.

    In the last couple of years alone these “fines” amount to $6.9 billion in fines ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-30/jpmorgan-7-billion-fines-just-past-two-years
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/05/08/jpmorgan-chase-s-crazy-fine-tally.html

  105. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    BIG SHIP – The die is cast, the rubicon has been crossed, Tone is now going to be the Lib leader at the next election. Newspoll doesn’t matter any more. It’s all out of the Lib’s hands.
    We should just give Newspoll a big salute for having kept Tone alive long enough for him to mount the scaffold.

  106. daretotread

    Guytaur

    Agree

    Satire of a PM is one thing but the appalling Gillard and Tim one was poorly done, in terrible taste and not even funny.

    I DO think the ABC should have cut some of it out – especially the sex under the flag scene, but also some of the Tim stuff which I thought bordered on being cruel and personally invasive.

    There is funny and there is stupid and that one was stupid.

  107. mimhoff

    guytaur@88

    [@smh: The ‘iTunes of higher education’: Courses from two major universities will be online & free next year. http://t.co/WesIUEP2NI via @jo_tovey

    Finally Overseas Uni’s have been doing this for years]

    It’s interesting to watch the battle of the two online course systems–the Stanford one in this article (Coursera) and the MIT one (edX).

    They’ve both signed on some big names and Australian unis are already on the list.

    https://www.coursera.org/partners/global
    https://www.edx.org/schools

    I’m still not entirely convinced that either service can communicate well enough to teach certain fields. Having a computer check your work is great for simple maths problems (see Khan Academy) but how does the platform move beyond that?

  108. lefty e

    I might add the GRNs policy will save billions compared to the expesnsive charade of offshore detention.

    Kevin 17 – once you do this, you can genuinely call boat arrivals queue jumpers. At the moment there is no queue: thats the incentive to take boats that the LNP and ALP have created.

    Boats are expenseive and dangerous: a proper queue wont stop everyone, but it will stop the average genuine refugee taking that risk.

  109. my say

    kevin one seven

    I have my knitting read

    thought of a tale of two cities

    better do something in the house

  110. daretotread

    Actually with the BBC now going to Foxtel I seriously DO wonder about the viability of the ABC as an entertainment channel.

    There is little enough now, so not sure what they will fill their space with.

    I guess they could do a deal with some of the better US niche networks but it is risky.

  111. kakuru

    guytaur

    [ ABC doing satire of a sitting PM was not the problem.

    The problem is that the satire was a load of crap. Quality a dim distant memory]

    Yeah, like that dim-witted ABC “comedy” sketch show on Wed nights, it just wasn’t funny. When it comes to comedy, offensive is fine. Unfunny is not.

  112. dave

    [ News Ltd/Coalition steam-powered smoke and mirrors machine must be revving up as we speak. ]

    Big Ship – wonder if col allen has got around to taking a leak in the holt st wash basins yet?

    Lets see if murdoch has a knock out blow against Labor – clearly abbott and the tories have thrown away a lead the length of the strait and maybe, just maybe lost another unloseable.

  113. fredex

    Well of course, its obvious ain’t it?
    If you have a couple of spare seats on a plane to somewhere you [whoever ‘you’ is, somebody who manages seat allocation at Toll I suppose]] just naturally think of ringing up, or whispering in his left earhole, the Shadow Minister for whatever Morrison is shadow of.
    I mean it would just spring to mind wouldn’t it?
    Conditioned response sort of thing.
    And how lucky was it?
    I mean just the coincidence.
    There’s a couple of seats to spare on a plane, Morrison has got nothing on his plate for a day or so, having a bit of a rest from his heavy schedule and like a bolt outa the blue comes this opportunity.
    Talk about luck or coincidence or ….whatever.
    Win win all round.
    Until some bloody disgruntled Fairfax type asks a stupid question.

  114. kakuru

    Hollowmen is still hilarious. Why can’t we make shows like that anymore?

  115. guytaur

    DTT

    Yes without BBC programmes the ABC will have to suddenly develop a nose for quality programming and have increased money for local content.

    Somehow I cannot see them doing this. We see this daily with the flagship current affairs channel News 24

  116. daretotread

    Kakuru

    Hollow men was not so long ago so I guess we still can.

    Guytaur

    Sadly I agree with you

  117. guytaur

    The ABC does have quality in a major way. Its internet delivery platforms. We saw the first of these with Iview.

    The ABC Tech department seems to be all quality on platforndelivery to me
    =======================
    Abbott on screen 24

  118. dave

    fredex

    The scenario works the other way as well. Viz –

    “You blokes at TOLL might be interested in taking another look see at the situation on Narua.

    Lots n lots tents are going to be needed and other stuff. How about you fly your people up tuesday and I’m sure you can find a couple of spare seats for scottie and a few of the lads from newscorp?

    Excellent – should be a great day all round.”

    Mums the word.

  119. guytaur

    Oh dear. Abbott talking infrastructure.

    Mr no trains. 😆

  120. victoria

    guytaur

    Perhaps abbott should talk about tent infrastructure

  121. guytaur

    Hope media strategists watching Abbott now talking about when he was Industrial relations minister

  122. guytaur

    “@AshGhebranious: Abbott sure likes to talk about himself #auspol #abcnews24 #talltales”

  123. fredex

    [Sean Tisme

    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:40 am | Permalink

    Fairfax has admitted it lied and that Morrison never had a flight paid for by Toll.]

    Huh?
    When did that happen?

    The last report I saw is online a couple of hours ago and has this:
    [“A News Corporation spokesman confirmed that the flights for its photographer and journalist had been paid for by Toll Holdings.”]

    Is this what you are relying on?

    [“”Part of this involved sending some senior executives to Nauru to assess the situation on the ground. There were spare seats available, which were offered to the shadow minister. There was no significant extra cost to allow non-Toll passengers on the trip,” a [Toll] spokesman said.]

    But of course it saved Morrison and his News Ltd mates the normal cost of the seats didn’t it?

  124. guytaur

    Abbott: I do not want to be partisan. Makes joke about labor support. Then gets partisan

  125. The Big Ship

    Kevin-One-Seven @ 108

    [The die is cast, the rubicon has been crossed, Tone is now going to be the Lib leader at the next election. Newspoll doesn’t matter any more. It’s all out of the Lib’s hands.
    We should just give Newspoll a big salute for having kept Tone alive long enough for him to mount the scaffold.]

    You are right in that whatever nonsense News Ltd can concoct to rubbish the ALP from now on will have little effect on the election outcome, but that won’t stop them from trying.

    With no substantive policies to offer, and an unwillingness to submit even the threadbare ideas they have tabled to any proper costing, the declining Coalition are only left with doubling down on the already failing strategy of 3 word slogans and 10 second sound bite mantras.

    There is no new ammo left in the locker, so it’s crash through, or crash for Abbott ….

  126. Pegasus

    [The ABC might have caved in on Tollgate last night, but it must have been a dark cave as there is zilch, zero, nothing from the ABC on the story this morning.]
    Christine Milne brought it up during her interview this morning with Fran Kelly and last night on Lateline.

  127. adam abdool

    If Morrison did not pay for flight and Toll did not pay for flight, then how was this “wholly privately paid”?

  128. guytaur

    @Bowenchris: Today I’m announcing the Govt will legislate that there will be no superannuation tax changes for 5 years. http://t.co/WuHvHNjJ7y

    So late election then

  129. fredex

    [dave at #122
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:02 am |]

    Yep, your scenario is just as possible as mine.
    Which should raise the question for our ace investigative journos, particularly those at the ABC, who initiated this fiasco?

  130. Hugoaugogo

    My money is still on a 21st September election (naturally – I have tickets to see The Cat Empire that night, booked months ago), but I’m yet to see a compelling reason why it won’t be 14th September. The only reason could really be is that it was Gillard’s day, but in the end I don’t think that matters that much.

    I’d say 7th September is a slight chance, but I think Rudd definitely wants to go to APEC, and given that we are to take over the Presidency of APEC next year, I think it’s a bad look if our PM is not there (and he can take Abbott if it’s in the middle of the election campaign).

    I agree that it’s a hostage to fortune to let parliament reconvene on 20th August, and I’d be very surprised if it happened. This means that the election is likely to be called sometime in the next two and a bit weeks.

  131. AussieAchmed

    Sean Tisme

    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:40 am | Permalink

    Fairfax has admitted it lied and that Morrison never had a flight paid for by Toll.

    Why then do the Labor supporters keep lying about this story?
    ————————————————–

    Morrison himself on Skynews stated that Toll paid for the trip.

    So Morrison is a liar…..well your comment just confirms what we all knew anyway

  132. ltep

    [So late election then]

    Did you even read the press release?

    [This will be enshrined in legislation by a re-elected Rudd Labor Government.]

  133. fredex

    [dave at #122 above

    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:02 am |]

    Lost my comment somehow.

    Yes Dave, your scenario is just as possible as mine.

    So, of course, naturally, our intrepid investigative journos, particularly those at the ABC, will be asking:
    “Just who did initiate this fiasco – and why?
    They might even ask about ‘conflict of interest” and full disclosure to the Australian public.
    Yeah, right.

  134. guytaur

    Itep

    Yes. I was just using the MSM tea leaf standard. Sorry should have made clearer

  135. fredex

    Bloody gremlins.

  136. Steve777

    Guytaur @132

    The linked article contains this phrase: This will be enshrined in legislation by a re-elected Rudd Labor Government.

    So not necessarily a late election.

  137. AussieAchmed

    Abbott has confirmed that he supports the rorts associated with the FBT while attacking the superannuation savings of 3.7 million low income workers, mainly women.

  138. ltep

    It’s stupid anyhow, if they wanted to change the super rules they could just re-amend the Act.

  139. guytaur

    Melissa Clarke on 24 highlighting tollgate

  140. guytaur

    Senator Milne live 24

  141. kevjohnno

    [Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:40 am | Permalink
    Fairfax has admitted it lied and that Morrison never had a flight paid for by Toll.]

    So Sean you’re now claiming Morrison lied and filed a false declaration to paliament. Good to see you don’t trust him.

    [Mr Morrison says he declared Toll’s role on his parliamentary register of interests.

    “We’re not in the middle of any tender process. We’re in opposition, we’re not in government, and Toll Holdings were going up there for the ordinary course of business anyway, which was in my disclosure,” Mr Morrison told ABC radio on Wednesday.

    “It is not the first time we’ve had privately funded trips to Nauru.]

  142. Pegasus

    Alternative news service:

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/border-protection-policy-is-based-on-shaky-premise-20130730-2qx05.html
    [We have spent billions attempting to deter asylum seekers, but there is precious little research on the impact of Australia’s deterrence mechanisms. Only last month the Department of Immigration published a report noting that ”surprisingly little is currently known about decision-making by irregular migrants”. The report confirmed what some on the sidelines of this debate have known for a while: we really do not know much about how asylum seekers react to our policy changes.

    Having undertaken one of the few studies to examine the impact of our deterrence information campaigns, I agree with the report’s finding that our ”policy responses … have been based on limited research and evidence”. This lack of research opens the way for a massive waste of public funds.]

    2. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tarkine-mine-to-go-ahead-20130731-2qy37.html
    [Federal Environment Minister Mark Butler has fast tracked the re-approval of a controversial mine in Tasmania’s Tarkine region, that had been overthrown by the Federal Court.]

  143. Kevin Bonham

    Carey Moore@97


    Going to an election in October, would necessitate a return to parliament on August 20.


    Not necessarily. Writs issued around that date can enable an election as late as 12 October.

    Yes, I got this too. It is possible to call an election for 12 Oct just before Parliament would otherwise return. But that means a nearly two-month long campaign.

  144. guytaur

    @ABCNews24: Greens say they will provide extra $70m per year to fast track processing of refugee claims in Indonesia http://t.co/TtTI3ZYXOH

  145. victoria

    [Jonathan Swan

    I’ve asked Scott Morrison’s office and Toll Holdings to give more detail on what, exactly, the Coalition invited Toll to do.]

  146. Kevin Bonham

    Just respamming:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch_30.html

    Poll Roundup and Seat Betting Watch July 30 – Includes History of Seat Transfer By Swing

    2PP Aggregate (Tuesday 30 July): 50.2 TO COALITION (effectively +0.1 since last week – slight method change)
    Individual Seat Betting: Labor favourites in 65 seats (+2, Banks and Reid)
    Seat Total Market: Labor 68 seats (+2)

    There’s some wonky stuff thrown in at the end about the past history of what sort of seat gains Governments and Oppositions normally make for a given swing.

    There’s also this:

    “A sobering note for Coalition fans: you’d better hope this is a bounce that’s going to wash out of the system by polling day, because otherwise … governments in this sort of aggregated 2PP position this close to a poll have always won. Even if most of those governments were yours.”

    (I am, of course, assuming the election is soonish and not in late November.)

  147. OzPol Tragic

    [Finally Overseas Uni’s have been doing this for years]

    Gawd! Do Aussie journos NEVER bother researching & fact-checking before making utter fools of themselves, especially to those who DO KNOW the truth?

    Oz universities (mainly the ones offering “external/off-campus” studies) have been offering such courses – for many decades, in some cases – as part of their “community Education’/ outreach/ extension etc programmes; though some charged a small fee.

    BTW, successful completion of such courses can be accredited, in Australia, under Recognition of Prior Learning requirements, as can completed TAFE “units” for advanced-standing entry into a wide range of undergrad courses (inc Business, engineering, nursing). Again, this has been happening since (at the latest) early 1990s.

    That article is as dumb as Abbott’s ed “?policy” of a couple of years back, of offering apprenticeship courses in high schools. In Qld, that started in the very early 1980s; the first International Baccalaureate courses a decade later.

    Only yesterday, the Queensland launches OP score review because:

    [“Education has evolved significantly since school-based senior assessment was introduced in the early 1970s, followed by the Overall Position (OP) tertiary entrance system in 1992, highlighting the need for this review,” Mr Langbroek said.

    “The reality is that school-based apprenticeships and vocational education and training are on the rise and senior students are using many different pathways to reach their tertiary destinations.

    “This review is an opportunity for us to ensure that the Queensland system reflects the multitude of ways that senior students can demonstrate achievement and the range of options available to students after they leave school.”]

    As well “TAFE-Link” courses (Certificate 4 level, which many students reach while still at school, counts as 1st Year equivalent in relevant university courses), other options include:

    International Baccalaureate; successful completion of which meets International University Entry Requirements in relevant disciplines & faculties

    Completion of university “units”/ courses in school-Uni “link” courses (inc on-campus attendance – which may be based in other states or OS – as well as online studies)

    Completion of units/courses in arts & sports (inc art, music, ballet, drama, film & TV, sports) through specialists colleges (inc Conservatorium) & “local” branches of National Institutes (inc Sports, film & TV, stage) which are accredited towards degrees in relevant uni faculties, specialist schools, National Institutes etc

    Completion of International subjects/ courses – including “other-language immersion” courses studied online/ skype-linked to other countries’ schools, colleges, universities etc

    BTW, many of the above started in the 1970-80s (inc uni advanced standing based on “folios of work” submitted for moderated assessment- with UNE some of my students did achieved advanced standing (History, Accounting & some sciences) in the 1970-80s, & many more in the 1990s.

    I don’t know if such alternative “pathways” to postSchool education are available in States/ Territories where the “normal” pathways are channeled through Public Exams (eg GCE). But Recognition of prior learning, inc TAFE & “outreach” courses, should be available nationally

  148. guytaur

    Hard Hat personalised

  149. Yesiree Bob

    SHY is really anoying

  150. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: PM @KRuddMP commits extra $19.5m in funding to Chris O’Brien Lifehouse project at RPA hospital in Sydney http://t.co/TtTI3ZYXOH”

  151. mikehilliard

    Whats the odds first journo question to Rudd will be BOATS, stuff cancer, refugees are far more dangerous in MSM land.

  152. AussieAchmed

    @ABCNews24: Greens say they will provide extra $70m per year to fast track processing of refugee claims in Indonesia http://t.co/TtTI3ZYXOH
    ———————————————————–

    It was pointed out the other day that if processing refguees from Indonesia occurs all you get are those who can afford to fly to Indonesia.

    It does nothing to get people out of the horrendous camps in Africa, Pakistan etc

  153. adrian

    I am very surprised, no shocked that there was no mention of Tollgate on AM this morning after tent city was such a big story for them yesterday when the could spin it as some sort of positive for the coalition.

    I guess as the direct feed from Newscorpse had no mention of it the fearless investigative hounds from ABC current affairs naturally assumed that it wasn’t news.

    Better to speculate on what ICAC will do today. Actually it was a bit more than speculation with the reporter calling his ponderings, ICAC ‘findings.

    With Newspoll in the field this week, expect anti-Labor rhetoric at full force from the ABC for the rest of the week.

  154. Yesiree Bob

    Is James Hird the Tony Abbott of the AFL ?

  155. guytaur

    Here it comes. Lets see how long before Abbott does a presser regarding ICAC

    “@latikambourke: RT @mcoultan: Eddie Obeid and Ian Macdonald found corrupt by the ICAC. To”

    Slow release due to website crash

  156. OzPol Tragic

    [Either the 7th or 21st september are the only dates left that dont necessitate a return to parliament]

    NOT 21st, because school holidays mean most will have already booked accommodation, tourist attraction visits etc, and accommodation usually starts mid-day Saturday. This is especially so as Spring tends to be a bigger tourist season for families than Winter.

    So 7th, 14th – and I did check 14th when I recalled that, after the MSM storm over JG’s announcement, Jewish Groups had said it wasn’t a problem – Saturdays are their normal days of religious observance.

  157. guytaur

    “@KevinWilde: Eric Roozendaal not found corrupt by #icac. Moses Obeid was deemed corrupt over cheap Honda. #auspol”

  158. BK

    Criminal charges recommended.
    Good.

  159. Benji

    This morning on Sportsbet, Forde has moved into favouritism for Labor.

    ALP: $1.75
    LNP: $1.95

  160. BK

    I hope Eddie likes porridge!

  161. mikehilliard

    Only the die hards are still interested in the ICAC findings. Everyone knew they were crooks months ago. Big so what from me but adrian/guytaur are sadly correct, stand by for a Labor rubbishing supreme.

  162. victoria

    NSW may be interested in ICAC, but here in Vic the only news in town is the Essendon saga

  163. lefty e

    The other good thing about the GRNs policy and there’s no reason other countries wont take from that queue as well. Whereas our ridiculous offshore processing centres – they’re just an expensive detour back here, as Howard discovered.

    [It does nothing to get people out of the horrendous camps in Africa, Pakistan etc]

    yes it does: its saying the sayng 20,000 will be taken from those places (more than we do now), and 10,000 from our region.

    The truth is this: most politicians of any stripe who have invesitigated the issue know this will work. But the LNP and ALP are more interested in politics, not policy.

    The ALP would be very wise indeed to institute a version of this. A few people seem to be missing the point completely: if you do this, you can still adopt whatever measures you want regarding boat arrivals. This is an offshore policy. It will work – it WILL slow boat arrivals, so it might even make ineffective measures on our shores look more effective than they are.

    its also the right thing to do, and MASSIVELY cheaper.

  164. zoidlord

    ICAC is already known in NSW.

    So I don’t think the NSW Public will care that much.

  165. guytaur

    The NSW public will breathe a sigh of relief that the sight of the beginning of the end is in sight with ICAC

  166. lefty e

    Tollgate was front page of The Age.

    Its obviously a potential comflict of interest from Morrison: he might be the relevant minister within months (though personally I dont believe he will, thats beside the point)

  167. adrian

    But it’s Newscorpse, the ABC and Fairfax’s job to MAKE them care.

  168. zoidlord

    Was Joe Hockey given advance notice of ICAC inquiry report? since he said the other day “Look at NSW Labor”?

  169. guytaur

    PMKR looking good for acting on reforms. Window dressing or not.

  170. adam abdool

    [http://www.smh.com.au/national/court-told-of-rinehart-bid-to-seize-shares-20130730-2qxbb.html]

    I try very very hard not to pass judgement on inviduals but Rinehart certainly test my patience.

  171. OzPol Tragic

    @ABCNews24: Greens say they will provide extra $70m per year to fast track processing of refugee claims in Indonesia http://t.co/TtTI3ZYXOH

    HUH?

    In financial (& other) matters, Greens (& Independents) don’t have the numbers to “provide” anything other than their support, or lack of it, for legislation, amendments etc; though they can present Bills & Amendments.

    So Greens (& Independents) may announce they will present a Bill for/ to achieve …, and lobby to get others to support a Bill; but that’s it. Only Major Parties, with or without support from other Parties & Indies, can “provide” (ie ensure a Bill is passed & becomes legislation).

    On present OpPoll figures, Greens are unlikely to win any additional HoR Seats/ Senate spots, & may lose some.

  172. lefty e

    Obviously Ozpol, but if you’re talking finance: 70m will make a huge difference to processing in Indonesia (where they occasionally get grants of 200k), and will create a queue.

    The same figure represents what? maybe 4 weeks of running the PNG solution.

    Sorry guys – its a far better policy. if the ALP wants to run the politics as presently, fine, but quietly you should be doing something exactly like this on the policy front: it WILL stem the flow of boat arrivals.

  173. guytaur

    @BeauGiles: .@VodafoneAU moves to end international roaming rort with “Roam Like Home” in UK, USA & NZ for $5 per day http://t.co/YtK4P9wflG\

  174. briefly

    169
    lefty e

    [The …. thing about the GRNs policy]

    …is it would inevitably increase the flow of displaced persons into Indonesia – something the Indonesians would not welcome. As it is, Australia could increase its selections from those already held in immigration detention by Indonesia, but refrains from doing. Presumably this is because both countries wish to retard the influx of displaced persons into that jurisdiction, rather than to increase it.

    Increased flows into Indonesia will only result in even more trafficking by sea, higher numbers of unlawful immigrants in Indonesia and, eventually, increased numbers in detention there too.

    Once again, Green policies on IMA’s are intended as a sop to their conscience at the expense of taxpayers, potential recruits to the humanitarian program and the lives of some of those willing to attempt sea passage.

  175. guytaur

    briefly

    So its the numbers not stop the drownings now is it?

  176. my say

    so as I understand it they want to fly in some that would come by boat. 10th read about last evening,
    costly.

    s0 do they really think that would stop the smugglers

    so what do we do the boats that still come,

    that would just free up the smugglers to take the next lot

    o dear

    =====================

  177. shellbell

    ICAC has kicked the door down for DPP (State and Cth), ASIC and ATO to swarm in over corrupt politicians and businessmen – Godspeed.

    Anyone seeking to brush this off might want to think about how multiple levels of NSW public service was compromised by these people

  178. zoidlord

    And btw, so the media once again found ICAC inquiry on a bribe over a cheap car?

  179. guytaur

    Quentin Demptser on 24

    No headline grabbing rhetoric from this report.

  180. zoidlord

    @shellbell/184

    True.

  181. victoria

    Shellbell

    you may be interested to know that the people that actually may be caught up in the web are from the coalition side of politics

  182. adrian

    I somehow don’t think that Abbott will be making too much of ICAC if he has any sense. There again…

  183. shellbell

    Victoria

    Yes, I specified the businessmen.

    I pity the public servants who had to put up with this shit. No doubt there was some vindication in giving their evidence to ICAC which no doubt was generally accepted.