tip off

BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

Magnifying glasses required to separate the two parties, or to pick the difference from the 2010 election result.

The weekly BludgerTrack update erases the 0.5% edge the Coalition gained in the wake of last week’s Newspoll, and finds Labor the tiniest fraction more likely than the Coalition to win a majority of seats. Labor has made a net gain of two on the seat projection, Queensland again showing its sensitivity with a two-seat shift on the basis of a very small vote change and a second gain projected for Labor in Western Australia (though I’d be a bit careful with the smaller state results at the moment, polling at that level having become leaner recently). This has been counterbalanced by a one seat move to the Coalition in New South Wales, where the Labor score remains on the cusp of 25 and 26.

The primary and two-party vote results are all but identical to the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which is the weightiest of the new data points. Included as always are Morgan, which was unusually soft for Labor this week, and Essential, which retains its slight lean to the Coalition relative to the rest of the field but has perhaps been trending slightly to Labor over the past few weeks. The one very bad new poll for Labor, the weekend’s ReachTEL result showing Labor to lose three of its four Tasmanian seats, has been included in the state relativities calculation. While its inclusion has weakened Labor’s two-party vote projection in the state by nearly 3% in relative terms, the model is not persuaded that Lyons will be joining Bass and Braddon on the casualty list.

The trendlines on the sidebar now paint a picture of monotonous consistency since the Rudd restoration, the so-called “sugar hit” having endured long enough to offer the Coalition real cause for alarm. However, very close observation of the primary votes provides some indication of movement beneath the surface. A poll aggregator like BludgerTrack presumes to have a margin of error of a bit over 1%, and while this is founded on dubious assumptions, it at least gives a rough pointer to the size of movement that should and shouldn’t interest us. One move outside the range concerns the Greens, who opened their account under Rudd at around 9%, sagged nearly a full point by the time of the asylum seeker policy announcement (remembering the margin of error diminishes the further a result gets from 50%), and have now recovered back to the starting point.

The other noteworthy change involves the “others” vote, which started the year at around 10%, increased to 12.5% as Labor bled primary vote support in the last six months under Julia Gillard, snapped back to around 9% when Rudd returned, and has trended downwards over the past four weeks to its present 7.5%. Part of that may have been absorbed by the Coalition in a general trend resulting from the media losing interest in some of the minor players, but it seems intuitively likely that a greater share comes from Labor leaners who have been won over after initial hesitancy by Rudd’s political initiatives. There may have been some deflation in the Rudd honeymoon balloon going on concurrently, with the Coalition primary vote at least holding level and perhaps rising slightly, but Rudd’s evident political successes have at the very least cancelled it out.

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  • 101
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:34 am | Permalink

    CM

    This could happen, but it will mean that the campaign period is 53 days

  • 102
    my say
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    DAVE

    YES on twitter I sort of said that, seems they do things late

    just after 7 pm

    do they think we are stupid.
    but then only people like us notice it

    I keep suggesting on twitter that rudd sells the abc

    as u would think now they would be rather worried
    don’t they care about their own jobs in the future
    all any one wants is every news item to be important
    nothing more nothing less

    but I was quite taken aback when I saw wttee’ abbott is not worried about wtte polls ‘

    poor didums abbott I thought fancy an organization like the abc having that trailer at the bottom of the page
    it was so childish

    I hope rudd

    and it will be my very first email to him and I would hope everyone here

    his first thing in the new gov, is to do what has to be done to bring the abc back to the people

    other things are so bad their programs are disgraceful

    a lot of rubbishy things that some think is funny

    I want a class act from my abc

    where has all the opera gone, very small amounts where good. wonderful shows from overseas

    good English drama

    the the only things worth watching is q and I and grand design and then the renovator at 6 / 7 could be on later

    the aust. drama is cringe worthy

    I like the one called Doctor ( sorry cannot remember the the rest of the title with craig mclaughlin,

    and when they had the at home with Julia wtte

    that was the end for me. with the abc how dare they satire and sitting, p m

    start again, sweep it out go back to the roots and bring back quality

  • 103
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    CM
    This could happen, but it will mean that the campaign period is 53 days

    I know. I calculated it. :-P

    But, seriously, my point was to dispel the idea that Rudd must wait as long as possible to call a late election, lest parliament returns. There are ways around it.

  • 104
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:40 am | Permalink

    Fairfax has admitted it lied and that Morrison never had a flight paid for by Toll.

    Why then do the Labor supporters keep lying about this story?

  • 105
    The Big Ship
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:40 am | Permalink

    With Newspoll to go into field tomorrow, the News Ltd/Coalition steam-powered smoke and mirrors machine must be revving up as we speak. What kind of hysterical beat-up will be blaring from the fear drenched pages of the usual suspects by tomorrow morning, then picked by the news aggregating drones that now pass for the diminished ABC?

    Will it be PM Rudd implicated in a kiddy porn ring?

    Treasurer Bowen involved in a noisome share scandal?

    Minister Burke accused of facilitating bubonic plague-ridden reffos to swarm ashore at all points of our girt-by-sea island fortress?

    As sure as night follows day, one can bank on a rabid and desperate reaction from the Coalition mouthpieces to the recent close results in other polling in an attempt to influence the self anointed ‘poll of record.’

  • 106
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:40 am | Permalink

    my say

    ABC doing satire of a sitting PM was not the problem.

    The problem is that the satire was a load of crap. Quality a dim distant memory

  • 107
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    lefty e – There is no way in hell that with an open door policy we will only get 30,000 refugees a year (as the Greens seems to be ingenuously pretending).
    Why would a refugee bother to go to a camp and join a queue which might still involve years of waiting when they can jump the queue by getting on a boat.
    What is the Green policy when arrivals start shooting north of 50,000?
    From a selfish point of view I would prefer to take boat arrivals (more motivated, probably better educated) than those who’ve sat around in camps for years. However, that is not what a refugee intake is supposed to be abouth.
    The Green’s policy will undoubtedly accelerate boat arrivals, and drownings, I’m afraid.

  • 108
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:42 am | Permalink

    Barclays reveals plans for £6bn cash call to plug capital gap

    Barclays asking shareholders to support rights issue as Bank of England shows the bank's finances are in a worse state than previously thought

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/jul/30/barclays-cash-call-6bn-capital-gap

    JPMorgan: $7 Billion In "Fines" In Just The Past Two Years

    There was a time when Jamie Dimon liked everyone to believe that his JPMorgan had a "fortress balance sheet", that he was disgusted when the US government "forced" a bailout on it, and that no matter what the market threw its way it would be just fine, thanks.

    However JPMorgan Chase has been party to a series of very expensive legal settlements.

    Joshua Rosner, a financial analyst and co-author of Reckless Endangerment, in March estimated that the company’s litigation expenses since 2009 have totaled $16 billion.

    In the last couple of years alone these "fines" amount to $6.9 billion in fines

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-30/jpmorgan-7-billion-fines-just-past-two-years
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/05/08/jpmorgan-chase-s-crazy-fine-tally.html

  • 109
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    BIG SHIP – The die is cast, the rubicon has been crossed, Tone is now going to be the Lib leader at the next election. Newspoll doesn’t matter any more. It’s all out of the Lib’s hands.
    We should just give Newspoll a big salute for having kept Tone alive long enough for him to mount the scaffold.

  • 110
    daretotread
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    Guytaur

    Agree

    Satire of a PM is one thing but the appalling Gillard and Tim one was poorly done, in terrible taste and not even funny.

    I DO think the ABC should have cut some of it out – especially the sex under the flag scene, but also some of the Tim stuff which I thought bordered on being cruel and personally invasive.

    There is funny and there is stupid and that one was stupid.

  • 111
    mimhoff
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    guytaur@88

    @smh: The ‘iTunes of higher education’: Courses from two major universities will be online & free next year. http://t.co/WesIUEP2NI via @jo_tovey

    Finally Overseas Uni’s have been doing this for years

    It’s interesting to watch the battle of the two online course systems–the Stanford one in this article (Coursera) and the MIT one (edX).

    They’ve both signed on some big names and Australian unis are already on the list.

    https://www.coursera.org/partners/global
    https://www.edx.org/schools

    I’m still not entirely convinced that either service can communicate well enough to teach certain fields. Having a computer check your work is great for simple maths problems (see Khan Academy) but how does the platform move beyond that?

  • 112
    lefty e
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    I might add the GRNs policy will save billions compared to the expesnsive charade of offshore detention.

    Kevin 17 – once you do this, you can genuinely call boat arrivals queue jumpers. At the moment there is no queue: thats the incentive to take boats that the LNP and ALP have created.

    Boats are expenseive and dangerous: a proper queue wont stop everyone, but it will stop the average genuine refugee taking that risk.

  • 113
    my say
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    kevin one seven

    I have my knitting read

    thought of a tale of two cities

    better do something in the house

  • 114
    daretotread
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    Actually with the BBC now going to Foxtel I seriously DO wonder about the viability of the ABC as an entertainment channel.

    There is little enough now, so not sure what they will fill their space with.

    I guess they could do a deal with some of the better US niche networks but it is risky.

  • 115
    kakuru
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    ABC doing satire of a sitting PM was not the problem.

    The problem is that the satire was a load of crap. Quality a dim distant memory

    Yeah, like that dim-witted ABC “comedy” sketch show on Wed nights, it just wasn’t funny. When it comes to comedy, offensive is fine. Unfunny is not.

  • 116
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    News Ltd/Coalition steam-powered smoke and mirrors machine must be revving up as we speak.

    Big Ship – wonder if col allen has got around to taking a leak in the holt st wash basins yet?

    Lets see if murdoch has a knock out blow against Labor – clearly abbott and the tories have thrown away a lead the length of the strait and maybe, just maybe lost another unloseable.

  • 117
    fredex
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    Well of course, its obvious ain’t it?
    If you have a couple of spare seats on a plane to somewhere you [whoever 'you' is, somebody who manages seat allocation at Toll I suppose]] just naturally think of ringing up, or whispering in his left earhole, the Shadow Minister for whatever Morrison is shadow of.
    I mean it would just spring to mind wouldn’t it?
    Conditioned response sort of thing.
    And how lucky was it?
    I mean just the coincidence.
    There’s a couple of seats to spare on a plane, Morrison has got nothing on his plate for a day or so, having a bit of a rest from his heavy schedule and like a bolt outa the blue comes this opportunity.
    Talk about luck or coincidence or ….whatever.
    Win win all round.
    Until some bloody disgruntled Fairfax type asks a stupid question.

  • 118
    kakuru
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    Hollowmen is still hilarious. Why can’t we make shows like that anymore?

  • 119
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    DTT

    Yes without BBC programmes the ABC will have to suddenly develop a nose for quality programming and have increased money for local content.

    Somehow I cannot see them doing this. We see this daily with the flagship current affairs channel News 24

  • 120
    daretotread
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    Kakuru

    Hollow men was not so long ago so I guess we still can.

    Guytaur

    Sadly I agree with you

  • 121
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    The ABC does have quality in a major way. Its internet delivery platforms. We saw the first of these with Iview.

    The ABC Tech department seems to be all quality on platforndelivery to me
    =======================
    Abbott on screen 24

  • 122
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:02 am | Permalink

    fredex

    The scenario works the other way as well. Viz -

    “You blokes at TOLL might be interested in taking another look see at the situation on Narua.

    Lots n lots tents are going to be needed and other stuff. How about you fly your people up tuesday and I’m sure you can find a couple of spare seats for scottie and a few of the lads from newscorp?

    Excellent – should be a great day all round.”

    Mums the word.

  • 123
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    Oh dear. Abbott talking infrastructure.

    Mr no trains. :lol:

  • 124
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    Perhaps abbott should talk about tent infrastructure

  • 125
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    Hope media strategists watching Abbott now talking about when he was Industrial relations minister

  • 126
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:11 am | Permalink

    “@AshGhebranious: Abbott sure likes to talk about himself #auspol #abcnews24 #talltales”

  • 127
    fredex
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:12 am | Permalink

    Sean Tisme

    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:40 am | Permalink

    Fairfax has admitted it lied and that Morrison never had a flight paid for by Toll.

    Huh?
    When did that happen?

    The last report I saw is online a couple of hours ago and has this:

    "A News Corporation spokesman confirmed that the flights for its photographer and journalist had been paid for by Toll Holdings."

    Is this what you are relying on?

    "''Part of this involved sending some senior executives to Nauru to assess the situation on the ground. There were spare seats available, which were offered to the shadow minister. There was no significant extra cost to allow non-Toll passengers on the trip,'' a [Toll] spokesman said.

    But of course it saved Morrison and his News Ltd mates the normal cost of the seats didn’t it?

  • 128
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    Abbott: I do not want to be partisan. Makes joke about labor support. Then gets partisan

  • 129
    The Big Ship
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    Kevin-One-Seven @ 108

    The die is cast, the rubicon has been crossed, Tone is now going to be the Lib leader at the next election. Newspoll doesn’t matter any more. It’s all out of the Lib’s hands.
    We should just give Newspoll a big salute for having kept Tone alive long enough for him to mount the scaffold.

    You are right in that whatever nonsense News Ltd can concoct to rubbish the ALP from now on will have little effect on the election outcome, but that won’t stop them from trying.

    With no substantive policies to offer, and an unwillingness to submit even the threadbare ideas they have tabled to any proper costing, the declining Coalition are only left with doubling down on the already failing strategy of 3 word slogans and 10 second sound bite mantras.

    There is no new ammo left in the locker, so it’s crash through, or crash for Abbott ….

  • 130
    Pegasus
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    The ABC might have caved in on Tollgate last night, but it must have been a dark cave as there is zilch, zero, nothing from the ABC on the story this morning.

    Christine Milne brought it up during her interview this morning with Fran Kelly and last night on Lateline.

  • 131
    adam abdool
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:15 am | Permalink

    If Morrison did not pay for flight and Toll did not pay for flight, then how was this “wholly privately paid”?

  • 132
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    @Bowenchris: Today I’m announcing the Govt will legislate that there will be no superannuation tax changes for 5 years. http://t.co/WuHvHNjJ7y

    So late election then

  • 133
    fredex
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    dave at #122
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:02 am |

    Yep, your scenario is just as possible as mine.
    Which should raise the question for our ace investigative journos, particularly those at the ABC, who initiated this fiasco?

  • 134
    Hugoaugogo
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    My money is still on a 21st September election (naturally – I have tickets to see The Cat Empire that night, booked months ago), but I’m yet to see a compelling reason why it won’t be 14th September. The only reason could really be is that it was Gillard’s day, but in the end I don’t think that matters that much.

    I’d say 7th September is a slight chance, but I think Rudd definitely wants to go to APEC, and given that we are to take over the Presidency of APEC next year, I think it’s a bad look if our PM is not there (and he can take Abbott if it’s in the middle of the election campaign).

    I agree that it’s a hostage to fortune to let parliament reconvene on 20th August, and I’d be very surprised if it happened. This means that the election is likely to be called sometime in the next two and a bit weeks.

  • 135
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    Sean Tisme

    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:40 am | Permalink

    Fairfax has admitted it lied and that Morrison never had a flight paid for by Toll.

    Why then do the Labor supporters keep lying about this story?
    ————————————————–

    Morrison himself on Skynews stated that Toll paid for the trip.

    So Morrison is a liar…..well your comment just confirms what we all knew anyway

  • 136
    ltep
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    So late election then

    Did you even read the press release?

    This will be enshrined in legislation by a re-elected Rudd Labor Government.

  • 137
    fredex
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    dave at #122 above

    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:02 am |

    Lost my comment somehow.

    Yes Dave, your scenario is just as possible as mine.

    So, of course, naturally, our intrepid investigative journos, particularly those at the ABC, will be asking:
    “Just who did initiate this fiasco – and why?
    They might even ask about ‘conflict of interest” and full disclosure to the Australian public.
    Yeah, right.

  • 138
    Pegasus
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Summary of Greens Party AS policy: http://www.greens.org.au/safer-pathways

    Policy document: http://www.greens.org.au/sites/greens.org.au/files/Safer_Pathways_0.pdf

  • 139
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    Itep

    Yes. I was just using the MSM tea leaf standard. Sorry should have made clearer

  • 140
    fredex
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    Bloody gremlins.

  • 141
    Steve777
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    Guytaur @132

    The linked article contains this phrase: This will be enshrined in legislation by a re-elected Rudd Labor Government.

    So not necessarily a late election.

  • 142
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    Abbott has confirmed that he supports the rorts associated with the FBT while attacking the superannuation savings of 3.7 million low income workers, mainly women.

  • 143
    ltep
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    It’s stupid anyhow, if they wanted to change the super rules they could just re-amend the Act.

  • 144
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:32 am | Permalink

    Melissa Clarke on 24 highlighting tollgate

  • 145
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    Senator Milne live 24

  • 146
    kevjohnno
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 9:40 am | Permalink
    Fairfax has admitted it lied and that Morrison never had a flight paid for by Toll.

    So Sean you’re now claiming Morrison lied and filed a false declaration to paliament. Good to see you don’t trust him.

    Mr Morrison says he declared Toll's role on his parliamentary register of interests.

    "We're not in the middle of any tender process. We're in opposition, we're not in government, and Toll Holdings were going up there for the ordinary course of business anyway, which was in my disclosure," Mr Morrison told ABC radio on Wednesday.

    "It is not the first time we've had privately funded trips to Nauru.

  • 147
    Pegasus
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    Alternative news service:

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/border-protection-policy-is-based-on-shaky-premise-20130730-2qx05.html

    We have spent billions attempting to deter asylum seekers, but there is precious little research on the impact of Australia's deterrence mechanisms. Only last month the Department of Immigration published a report noting that ''surprisingly little is currently known about decision-making by irregular migrants''. The report confirmed what some on the sidelines of this debate have known for a while: we really do not know much about how asylum seekers react to our policy changes.

    Having undertaken one of the few studies to examine the impact of our deterrence information campaigns, I agree with the report's finding that our ''policy responses … have been based on limited research and evidence''. This lack of research opens the way for a massive waste of public funds.

    2. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tarkine-mine-to-go-ahead-20130731-2qy37.html

    Federal Environment Minister Mark Butler has fast tracked the re-approval of a controversial mine in Tasmania's Tarkine region, that had been overthrown by the Federal Court.

  • 148
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    Carey Moore@97


    Going to an election in October, would necessitate a return to parliament on August 20.


    Not necessarily. Writs issued around that date can enable an election as late as 12 October.

    Yes, I got this too. It is possible to call an election for 12 Oct just before Parliament would otherwise return. But that means a nearly two-month long campaign.

  • 149
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    @ABCNews24: Greens say they will provide extra $70m per year to fast track processing of refugee claims in Indonesia http://t.co/TtTI3ZYXOH

  • 150
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    Jonathan Swan

    I've asked Scott Morrison's office and Toll Holdings to give more detail on what, exactly, the Coalition invited Toll to do.

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