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Federal Election 2013

Aug 4, 2013

Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

ReachTEL has opened the election campaign polling account in very short order, while Newspoll has published a poll following its normal Friday-to-Sunday schedule. The two concur on two-party preferred, with the latter finding Kevin Rudd taking a hit on his personal ratings.

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As we enter the first full day of the September 7 federal election campaign:

• Newspoll, conducted between Friday and Sunday, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on its poll of a fortnight ago at 52-48, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (down one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Equally worrying for Labor is a significant drop in Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings, his approval down four points to 38% and disapproval up six to 47%. However, he still leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 47-33, down only slightly from 50-34 a fortnight ago. Abbott has had remarkably constant personal ratings from Newspoll since Rudd’s return: after three successive polls at 35% approval and 56% disapproval, this time he’s down one to 34% and steady at 56%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

• More current still is the result from ReachTEL, which conducted an automated phone poll of 2949 respondents for the Seven Network in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s election announcement. This too showed the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 in the ReachTEL poll of a week ago, from primary votes of 37.5% for Labor, 45.7% for the Coalition and 8.2% for the Greens. ReachTEL continues to find Tony Abbott doing well on preferred prime minister, this time leading 50.9-49.1, which is bafflingly at odds with other pollsters (notwithstanding the methodological difference that the survey is only deemed completed if all questions put to respondents are answered, hence the totals adding up to 100). On the question of effective management of the economy, 60.7% favoured the Coalition compared with 39.3% for Labor. While the sample on the poll is certainly impressive, it’s considered better practice to conduct polls over longer periods.

• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with these two poll results and some further state-level data that has become available to me, and while the 50-50 starting point from last week slightly blunts the impact of two new 52-48 data points, there has nonetheless been a weighty shift to the Coalition on the implied win probability calculations. On the seat projections, the latest numbers find air going out of the Labor balloon in Queensland (down four seats), together with one-seat shifts to the Coalition in New South Wales and Tasmania. However, the projection of a second gain for Labor in Western Australia, which I looked askance at when it emerged in last week’s result, has stuck. I will resist the temptation to link this to unpopular recent actions of a state government which is flexing its muscles during the early stages of a four year electoral cycle, at least for the time being.

Tomorrow will presumably bring us the regular weekly Essential Research online poll and the Morgan “multi-mode” result, at around 2pm and 6pm EST respectively. The Poll Bludger’s regular guide to the 150 electorates will, I hope, be in action by the end of the week.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2158 comments

2,158 thoughts on “Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

  1. poroti

    Boerwar

    If you are Barnyard or use the patented eleventy seven Hockeynomics calculator then maybe or who knows.

  2. confessions

    [Hours after the Prime Minister confirmed September 7 as the date for the federal election, ReachTEL has swung immediately into action]

    Are you sure that’s correct? There were comments here and elsewhere from people saying they’d been Reachtelled long before the election date announcement.

  3. Centre

    The preferred PM numbers must cast some doubt on the accuracy of this poll?

    If it overstates Abbott, maybe the 2PP figures are overstated?

  4. ruawake

    Why won’t ReachTel poll over different days and times to get a proper sample?

    Thurs night or Sunday afternoon has boogers hanging off it.

  5. citizen

    Repeated from the last thread:

    It’s quite possible that there won’t be any Rudd-Abbott debates face to face this election.

    Rudd certainly holds the upper hand and will more than likely continue to goad Abbott throughout the campaign.

    It seem to be developing into a staring contest as to who will blink first. Rudd is unlikely to blink and Abbott may just go through the campaign promising to participate in a debate but continuing to avoid one.

  6. Mod Lib

    [The revenue falls are facts, they will happen whoever is elected. Where do your mob find $69 billion?]

    “Your mob” has had all the time in the world and the whole of Treasury and stuffed up by $30 Billion plus from just 10 weeks ago.

    “Your mob” has just let everyone else know 2 days ago.

    Abbott will have to factor this massive screw up from the ALP in his costings, but he doesnt have to have it done by tonight.

  7. triton

    About what I expected on 2PP, but PPM is extraordinary and, IMO, utter nonsense.

  8. ShowsOn

    FUCK THAT TONY ABBOTT AND THE BOAT HE CAME IN ON!

  9. Mod Lib

    I reckon stability will be a big issue in this election

    Treasury: Hockey vs.
    1. Swan and
    2. Bowen

    Immigration: Morrison vs.
    1. Chris Evans
    2. Chris Bowen
    3. Brendan O’Connor
    4. Tony Burke

    Small Business: Billson vs.
    1. Craig Emerson
    2. Nick Sherry
    3. Mark Arbib
    4. Brendan O’Connor
    5. Chris Bowen
    6. Gary Gray

  10. citizen

    [Hours after the Prime Minister confirmed September 7 as the date for the federal election, ReachTEL has swung immediately into action]

    The Reachtel website says they polled “during the afternoon of 4th August 2013” and they make no mention of the election announcement in the questions they asked.

    In any case, most people had probably not yet heard of the election announcement at the time they were polled – they probably heard it on the evening news.

    Their responses were probably more influenced by the budget statement of Friday afternoon.

  11. poroti

    ShowsOn

    And this is the boat he came in on

    [SS Oronsay ]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Oronsay_(1951)

  12. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib

    Having the same person in doesn’t mean they have performed well.

    State-ability shouldn’t be an issue since Rudd is back.

    And shouldn’t be relied upon since Turnbull-Nelson.

  13. Yesiree Bob

    ML, It’s nice to know that you have a sense of humour.

  14. ruawake

    [Abbott will have to factor this massive screw up from the ALP in his costings, but he doesnt have to have it done by tonight.]

    So no answer as usual.

  15. Boerwar

    Centre

    ‘Boerwar

    If you are in a marginal seat in Victoria you are being very foolish if you don’t vote properly!’

    Quite by accident I found a copy of Prospect magazine in the seat pocket in front of me. The lead article is by Mazower and the title is ‘Has Democracy Had It’s Day?’

    Inter alia, it referred to three books:

    ‘Democracy in Retreat: The Revolt of the Middle Class and the Worldwide Decline of Representative Government’ by Joshua Kurlantzik.

    ‘The Democracy Project: A History, a Crisis, a Movement’ by David Graeber

    ‘Democratie: Histoire Polique d’un mot’ by Francis Dupuis-Deri

    Quite a lot of the article resonated with the sort of gut-rage I am feeling at the way the democracy thieves are destroying things. A couple of my persistent themes in Bludger will give an idea:

    Democracy thieves
    Gimme the Job or I’ll wreck the join
    Whatever it takes
    Two rotten apples

    And of course the mantra: lack of honesty, integrity, decency, loyalty, respect for others and a lack of committment to values, principles and policies.

    It does not surprise me that there is a wider global concern about what is happening to democracy. Australia is hardly alone.

    If decent people stand by, or otherwise encourage the theft of our democracy, they have only themselves to blame as our democracy goes down the tubes.

    Vote 1 Informal Party.

  16. New2This

    State-ability is Rudd in power thanks to Eddie Obied and his under studies…

  17. dendrite

    Centre @4

    ReachTel seems to have a house effect favouring the Coalition by at least 1%, so a good rule of thumb would be to add 1% to the Labor 2PP. This gives the Coalition leading 51-49.

  18. ruawake

    ABC vote compass has crashed, must be on a crikey server at 8 o’çlock. 🙂

  19. Centre

    Mod Lib

    There will be a lot of big issues in this election, the biggest being Abbott’s costings.

    Boerwar, if you live in a marginal seat in Victoria it might be wise to vote properly and don’t be foolish.

  20. ShowsOn

    [I reckon stability will be a big issue in this election]
    Bullfuckingshit.

    The big issue this election is simple.

    Do voters really want Tony Abbott to be Prime Minister when Tony Abbott is a fucking idiotic bullshit artist who has hardly any policies and the ones he does have make no fucking sense and are a complete waste of time, money and effort.

  21. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    BOREWANKER – Voting informal Is letting democracy go down the tubes.

  22. Mod Lib

    [Yesiree Bob
    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 8:12 pm | PERMALINK
    ML, It’s nice to know that you have a sense of humour.]

    Its one of the most important things, I reckon! 🙂

  23. Graeme

    It’s on again. Can they claim the 3 seats, err tests they need, for a come behind win over the Auld Enemy, I mean Loyal Opposition?

    It’ll take some spin, that is, good campaigning, after the Captain and deputy feuds they’ve had, but the whole country is watching…. &c

  24. confessions

    [I reckon stability will be a big issue in this election]

    Undoubtedly. Did you hear Abbott’s speech after the election date was announced? He mentioned it once or twice.

  25. Mod Lib

    [ShowsOn
    …..
    Bullfuckingshit.

    The big issue this election is simple.

    Do voters really want Tony Abbott to be Prime Minister]

    Well, in that case, the answer is an emphatic yes and has been for 3 years + ! :devil:

  26. zoidlord

    @News2This/19

    Is stateability a key word for you liberals?

    Because Queensland LNP tapes have been hidden from public view atm…

  27. New2This

    Have you been drowning your sorrows Shows-on…

  28. Centre

    dendrite

    1% or 2% even possibly 3% in an election campaign is gettable.

    Let’s all hope it shades of P Keating in 1993!

  29. ShowsOn

    [Well, in that case, the answer is an emphatic yes and has been for 3 years + ! ]
    So why is Kevin Rudd preferred Prime Minister?

    Didn’t consider that did you Mr ‘I am Tony Abbott’s Minion’.

  30. Boerwar

    K07

    ‘BOREWANKER – Voting informal Is letting democracy go down the tubes.’

    I don’t mind you disagreeing with me. Around 99% of the population does.

    But why do you feel the need to demean yourself with your pathetic abuse?

  31. Darren Laver

    [Vote 1 Informal Party.]

    How is that registration going? When do they close?

    Can someone please check the AEC website…

  32. Mod Lib

    [ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 8:18 pm | PERMALINK
    Well, in that case, the answer is an emphatic yes and has been for 3 years + !

    So why is Kevin Rudd preferred Prime Minister?]

    So why is Kevin Rudd’s ALP not the preferred party on TPP?

    You vote on a TPP basis not on a PPM basis when in the booth.

  33. Boerwar

    If it is committment to policy that voters yearn for, they should avoid RuddAbbott like the plague.

  34. Diogenes

    What’s with the slogan “A New Way” when Labor has been in power for six years? What’s this New Way?

  35. Mod Lib

    I hope it is not a 3 word slogan is it?

    LOL 🙂

  36. poroti

    Diogenes

    [What’s this New Way?]
    Cos it is better than :monkey: ‘s No Way.

  37. Boerwar

    DL

    ‘Vote 1 Informal Party.

    How is that registration going? When do they close?

    Can someone please check the AEC website…’

    I believe that we have run out of time this election. But we are still going to encourage people to apply the following thresholds to all candidates before voting for them:

    (1) honesty
    (2) integrity
    (3) loyalty
    (4) respect for others
    (5) committment to values
    (6) committment to principles
    (7) committement to policies.

    For example, if you score Rudd 10/10 for loyalty you can feel more confident that he strongly supports democracy. Remember: no-one knows what you do in the voting booth.

    You can see why the majors want electronic voting: it is not to support democracy, strange to say.

  38. ShowsOn

    [So why is Kevin Rudd’s ALP not the preferred party on TPP?]
    What the hell are you going on about now?

    Since Rudd became PM again the polls have been statistically TIED 50/50. Nearly even result except a few Morgans have been within the margin of error.

    You’re having trouble with numbers again Mr Drown.

  39. ruawake

    Mackerras it going a bit silly.

    [Queensland is now unrepresented in the cabinet…]

    Did he miss Kev is from Qld?

  40. gloryconsequence

    A New Way is an Opposition slogan.

    Pretty average tbh

  41. confessions

    England avoid the follow-on.

  42. Boerwar

    Dio

    It is the new old way, which is different from the old old way.

    Clark and Dawes must think it is ridiculously easy to script their spoofs.

    So much for reasoned policy discussions.

  43. poroti

    Pomgolia progress beyond the follow on target with the loss of no wicket.

  44. Centre

    Confessions

    Can you actually bring yourself to admitting that had Labor not switched to the PM Rudd and were contesting this election with PM Gillard, the Party would be facing annihilation right now?

    You are seriously insulting your own intelligence to believe otherwise!

  45. Mod Lib

    [ShowsOn
    ……
    What the hell are you going on about now?

    Since Rudd became PM again the polls have been statistically TIED 50/50.]

    The last few polls (Coalition TPP):

    Reachtel 52.5 (by my calculations, 52 as released)
    Morgan 49.5
    Essential 51.0
    Newspoll 52.0

  46. triton

    England avoids the follow-on, still 7 down. Yes, there are other important events to keep tabs on.