tip off

Highlights of day one

Two new polls, one new poll aggregation, and some ads.

A quick replay of yesterday’s polling:

Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.

Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.

• BludgerTrack, which was formerly updated weekly but will now be brought up to date whenever substantial new data arrives, records no change on two-party preferred from the addition of the two new polls, although the Greens are up on the primary vote at the expense of Labor. However, there’s a fair bit of movement on the state seat projections, with Labor up one in Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania and down one in Queensland for a net gain of two seats. That leaves two state-level projections at which one might well look askance: a finding of no gains for Labor in Queensland, against three gains for them in Western Australia. Whereas poll results in the weeks after the Rudd takeover had Labor outperforming the national result in Queensland as often as not, I now have five data points over the past fortnight all of which have them below. And while three gains in Western Australia certainly seems hard to credit (for one thing, the model is not adequately accounting for Labor losing the Alannah MacTiernan dividend from 2010 in Canning, which at present is rated a probable Labor gain), all five data points from the past fortnight show Labor improving on the 2010 result – a pretty solid result given how noisy small-sample state-level data tends to be.

• As far as I can tell, Labor and Liberal each had one television ad in business yesterday, and they read from much the same tactical script: both are positive, showcase the leader, and appear tailored to launching the parties’ rather nebulous campaign slogans. Kevin Rudd speaks to us of “a new way”, Opposition Leader style, while the actual Opposition Leader makes like Luke Skywalker and offers us “new hope”. The latter effort is a fairly obvious exercise in image softening, but what most stands out for me, having grown accustomed over the years to “face of Australia” advertising being served with a thick layer of political correctness on top (Qantas being an acknowledged leader in the field), is that all but a very small handful of the 50 or so faces in the ad are white.

UPDATE: ReachTEL has published the results of an automated phone poll of 702 respondents in Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith, and it points to a 4% swing to the Liberal National Party paring his margin back to 4.5%. The primary votes from the poll are 45.6% for Kevin Rudd, 41.0% for LNP candidate Bill Glasson and 8.0% for the Greens.

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  • 101
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    Triton they had a debate this morning between all the Griffith candidates including the PM so it’s timely.

  • 102
    daretotread
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    The term D*ck head seems to VERY accurately describe Mr Dowling MP

  • 103
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    @101 Reachtel did their survey after the debate? It just wrapped up so do they own a time machine.

  • 104
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    Apparently interest rate cuts are good under a Liberal Govt but bad under a Labor Govt

    Who’d have guessed that would be Hockey/Abbott/Murdoch line?

  • 105
    Marrickville Mauler
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:02 am | Permalink

    Someone needs to tell Mr Dowling MP that’s not how you make coq au vin

  • 106
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:03 am | Permalink

    ReachTel did the survey last night.

    Dowling is chair of the Ethics Committee – classic.

  • 107
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:03 am | Permalink

    What a beautiful morning!

    Abbott is a head in the polls.

    Labor has now blown out to $4 Bucks in the betting

    Rudd’s been busted telling fibbie fibs about Nauru

    The budget blow out of $30 Billion dollars means Labors economic credentials are in absolute tatters

  • 108
    Silky38
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:04 am | Permalink

    This is going to be a very rough ride heading towards polling day. The coalition has a steady primary of low to mid 40′s and that’s going to be very hard to beat. I don’t think Labor is going to pull this one off as things stand. The Coalition are going to have to do some spectacularly stupid things to lose or Labor are going to pull off a miracle through the News Ltd bomardment. I think the country is going to be in deep shit.

  • 109
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    davidwh – sorry, I thought you meant the survey was taken following the debate.

  • 110
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    The most striking aspect of the issues-based polling is the near unanimity on boat arrivals. Only 20% take the “left” view. 80% think that both Abbott and Rudd are right in rejecting boat arrivals, or want them to be even tougher. And of the 20%, I’d very certain that the majority of them live in either safe Labe inner-city seats or safe Liberal wealthy urban seats. People holding the view that Rudd and Abbott are “too tough” on boats would be hard to find in most suburban and regional areas, which is where the marginal seats are.

  • 111
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:09 am | Permalink

    No worries Mike I can be unclear at times.

  • 112
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:09 am | Permalink

    No worries Mike I can be unclear at times.

  • 113
    Pegasus
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    ABC Radio National Breakfast program with Fran Kelly this morning interviewed John Mendoza, Director of ConNetica and former Chair of the National Advisory Council on Mental Health.
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/obsessive-hope-disorder/4867168

    Topic: Obsessive Hope Disorder – A landmark report into mental health launched today marking 30 years on since the Richmond Report of 1983.

  • 114
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:12 am | Permalink

    The word “alleged” never came into the conversation when the Fibs started their campaign against Thomson and Slipper.

    But now one of their own gets caught out suddenly they have found a dictionary and the word “alleged”.

    Usual double standards from the Libs

  • 115
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    I thought that the discussion in that article was a bit underwhelming.

    Sea water temperatures fluctuate from day to night, with the winds, with changes in currents, and with changes in chemical and biotic composition. Particularly in shallower situations such as on and around reefs the temperature fluctuations can be quite large. Apart from situtations in which the fluctuations expose species to vital thresholds (too cold to breed, too hot to live) it is the temperature over time that counts with respect to distribution because species are selected to be optimally competitive for particular temperature regimes.

    I suggest that the reason why terrestrial animal species are ‘slow’ is because nearly all of them are directly or indirectly dependent on plants. It takes a long time for a forest to migrate and to achieve old growth status in its new weather niche, for example. Additionally, human landuse patterns are very likely to disrupt land species migrations. Human landuse patterns rarely come into consideration in terms of AGW responses, but the patterns are critical.

    I suggest also that suggestions notions that southern Australia will turn into a cool moist food bowl are guesswork. No one knows, for example, how long it will take for new weather pattersn to stabilize. Yet it is this stability that underpins food bowls.

    The good thing about all of the above is that because C02 is weightless and climate science is crap, we don’t really have to be concerned about any of the above.

  • 116
    Pegasus
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    It will be interesting to reading when Vote Compass disseminates its analyses. So far 268,077 Australians have used this tool.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/vote-compass/4867258

  • 117
    my say
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    http:The Gillard Government must accept the blame for higher interest rates

    Monday, 27 September 2010

    The likelihood of interest rates rising is back on the agenda, following explicit warnings from the Reserve Bank that it is considering the need for tighter monetary policy
    //www.joehockey.com/media/speeches/details.aspx?s=80

    read more

    =============================================================

    seems hockey has had a lot to say about int, rates now he wants them higher himself and no costings

    is hockey the weekest link in the libs

    the person who would control our taxes with his purse strings

    very very scary

  • 118
    my say
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 7m
    Apologies: Here is Mr Hockey on how low interest rates are delivered by prudent management of fiscal policy http://www.joehockey.com/media/speeches

  • 119
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    Abbott presser (& Margie) on 24

  • 120
    triton
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    Anna Burke says the hard line on boats has hurt her in Chisholm, but those people are hardly going to prefer Tony.

  • 121
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: We now take you live to the NSW Central Coast, where OL @TonyAbbottMHR is speaking. Watch http://t.co/3YXdj7UeVK #ausvotes”

    “@couriermail: UPDATE:’Sorry for the shame’:sexting MP & ethics committee chair quits post http://t.co/neGwVSkJ9v #ausvotes #voiceaust #qldpol #auspol ^de”

    “@latikambourke: PM Rudd media conference 1100 in Brisbane.”

  • 122
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    If you are referring to me AA I always say alleged and have done so throughout the Thomson saga.

  • 123
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    More fibs about the FBT.

  • 124
    Pegasus
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    The CPSU’s suspension of campaigning for Labor was also covered on ABC RN Breakfast program:
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/cpsu-suspends-campaign-effort/4867304

    Labor's election efforts have received a setback, and it's come from one of its biggest supporters. The Community and Public Sector Union has suspended its campaigning efforts on behalf of the ALP.

    This will give Greens Senate candidate Simon Sheikh’s campaign a boost, as will the NTEU’s Vote Smart campaign advocating vote 1 for the Greens

  • 125
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    What a beautiful morning!

    Abbott is a head in the polls.

    What sort of head?

  • 126
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    “@nonstoptom: If this election is about giving Western Sydney what they want, give them a beach.”

    :lol:

  • 127
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    Hockey has deleted the article he wrote which said low interest rates are due to a tight budget

    http://joehockey.com/notifications/server/404.aspx?aspxerrorpath=/mediahub/opinion-piece-detail.aspx

  • 128
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    A very small head :)

  • 129
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    davidwh

    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    If you are referring to me AA I always say alleged and have done so throughout the Thomson saga.
    ———————————————————-

    No I wasn’t thinking of you…more the types that stalk the halls of parliament house

  • 130
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    Malevolent Murdoch is manifest.

    Half-truths, innuendo, fake ‘revelations’, unflattering pictures of the PM and his lady.

    I am very scared.

  • 131
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    Local candidate doing Q and A. Abbott avoiding the lizard look today by not being in profile

  • 132
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    Ah oh – FBT fibs are bogging down, journos asking too many questions.

  • 133
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    Anyway the idiot has fallen on his sword not that he had much of an option.

  • 134
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    Oh sorry maybe not candidate

  • 135
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    Cough cough, quick get off the topic. F–king idiot.

  • 136
    Rosemour or Less
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    Silky38

    After listening to few numbnut nutters talking on the telly about who they’re going to vote for and why..I’ve decided they deserve Abbott. Seriously, if the punters want him let it rip. I’m sick of feeling underwhelmed all the time by the ALPs L-plate politics. It shits me sideways.
    Bring on Abbott. Australia deserves him.

  • 137
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    Another reason that they might have given for terrestrial/ocean distributions is that most land animals are endothermic and most ocean animals are poikiothermic. Inter alia, this means that land animals can alter their behaviour in situ (use more energy to cool down, for example) whereas poikotherms have to take what they can get: if this means moving polewards to stay cool, so be it.

    One way of testing this would be to compare the migrations of terrestrial poikiotherms compared with terrestrial endotherms. I suggest that, theoretically, the poikiotherms would be migrating more rapidly than the endotherms.

  • 138
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:27 am | Permalink

    More carbon tax BS.

  • 139
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    Now boats

  • 140
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    Abbott showing that he supports the rorting of the FBT.

    But then so many of contributors to the Liberal have been rorting the tax system what else would be expected.

    Gotta look after those big money mats

  • 141
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    Abbott showing that he supports the rorting of the FBT.

    But then so many of contributors to the Liberal have been rorting the tax system what else would be expected.

    Gotta look after those big money mates

  • 142
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    Abbott channeling boat arrival in next few days.

  • 143
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    P

    I assume that the CPSU is protesting against Rudd’s vendetta against the APS?

    I suggest that when Abbott is finished with the Health, Education and Environment departments there will be a whole lot less of the CPSU left to cause anyone any concern.

  • 144
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    Abbott keeps going on about the carbon “tax”. Even though it is going under Labor.

  • 145
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    Abbott joins Morrison in supporting people smugglers

  • 146
    triton
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    What boat problem did the Howard government “inherit”?

  • 147
    Pegasus
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    1. http://www.theage.com.au/comment/both-parties-peddle-a-fiscal-fairytale-20130805-2ra2l.html

    Australia faces an "immense challenge" in paying for its needs and both political parties are failing to deal with it, says Henry.

    2. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/mixed-messages-on-nauru-settlement-20130805-2ra8z.html

    Nauru's government is assuring its citizens that Australia will eventually relocate all refugees off the island, although some will have limited rights "for a long-term stay".

    And Immigration Minister Tony Burke has conceded for the first time that asylum seekers sent to Nauru under the expanded regional resettlement agreement will not get permanent visas.

  • 148
    spur212
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    ReachTEL poll of Griffith

    ALP 54.5 LNP 45.5

    http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/federal-election-2013-griffith-poll

  • 149
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:31 am | Permalink

    p.

    ‘Australia faces an “immense challenge” in paying for its needs and both political parties are failing to deal with it, says Henry.’

    The debauchery of our democracy continues.

    Another reason Vote 1 Informal Party.

  • 150
    my say
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 10:32 am | Permalink

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeBludger/status/364542322572144640/photo/1

    check out George bludger

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