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Federal Election 2013

Aug 7, 2013

Highlights of day two

A surprisingly soft poll result for Kevin Rudd in his Brisbane seat of Griffith, trouble for both parties with candidates in marginal New South Wales seats, and some movement from the bookmakers.

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With 31 days left to go:

ReachTEL has published the results of an automated phone poll of 702 respondents in Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith, and it points to a 4% swing to the Liberal National Party – enough to pare back his margin to 4.5%, and raise doubts about Labor’s prospects in Liberal National Party marginals. The primary votes from the poll are 45.6% for Kevin Rudd, 41.0% for LNP candidate Bill Glasson and 8.0% for the Greens.

• Jaymes Diaz, the Liberal candidate for the crucial western Sydney seat of Greenway, has been a big hit on social media over the past day or two, and not in a good way. Quizzed by a Ten Network reporter about the content of his party’s six-point plan to “stop the boats”, Diaz could manage only one, offering only the clumsiest of platitudes in place of the other five. He was eventually put out of his misery when a minder intervened to bring the interview to a close. Heath Aston of Fairfax offers some interesting background on the circumstances behind his endorsement.

• Also earning raspberries has been David Bradbury, Labor’s member for the equally important western suburbs seat of Lindsay, who queried a radio interviewer about being a Liberal Party member and ominously asked him to reveal what his surname was.

• Labor appears to be in a muddle over who it will run in Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. Former Gosford deputy mayor Trevor Drake emerged as the only nominee for preselection a month ago, but the party executive has declined to ratify his endorsement. However, Kevin Rudd has been rebuffed in his approach to one his youthful senior advisers from his first tenure as prime minister, current Coles executive Andrew Charlton, who says he is not available due to family reasons. Ean Higgins of The Australian reports the party had been alerted to a finding by Gosford council’s conduct committee that Drake had failed to disclose interests when council considered development applications from a firm for which he acted as a solicitor, although it cleared him of breaching its code of conduct. Higgins also reports concern over “presentational difficulties” relating to Drake’s status as a former Liberal Party member, and the fact that he doesn’t live in the electorate.

• Two agencies have moved their odds slightly in the Coalition’s favour in the wake of Monday’s poll results. Tom Waterhouse has the Coalition paying $1.24, down from $1.27, with Labor out from $3.50 to $4, while Centrebet has the Coalition in from $1.27 to $1.25 and Labor out from $3.60 to $4.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1660 comments

1,660 thoughts on “Highlights of day two

  1. Kinkajou

    Wow you’ve become a DAILY, William

  2. Socrates

    Morning all. In the USA theRepublicans do not want media coverage of Hillary Clinton, three years out from the 2016 election.
    [The Republican National Committee chairman says he’ll try to block presidential primary debate partnerships with NBC and CNN if the television networks don’t cancel planned Hillary Clinton documentaries.]
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/republicans-threaten-cnn-nbc-if-they-go-ahead-with-hillary-clinton-docos-20130806-2rayl.html#ixzz2bDqfTwlX

    Despite Fox News being a parody of balanced, clearly, what is good for the goose, is not good for the gander.

  3. Socrates

    Regarding Abbott’s promise to lower corporate tax, what can I say? it is a promise with no credibility. He still hasn’t explained how he will pay for his other $70 billion (!) of promises. He opposes new revenue measures like the crack down on car FBT rorts. It is like Essendon promising full disclosure on PE drug taking. Unbelievable.

  4. Socrates

    For information on the current level of corporate tax, see this report.
    http://www.taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/Paper.aspx?doc=html/publications/papers/report/section_5-07.htm

    Overall corporate tax rates in Australia are already in the bottom third in the OECD. The only reason some companies pay more tax here is that they make more profits here. Much of the rest of the OECD is still in recession, with company tax take way down. The real problems for business competitiveness here are high wages, lack of skills training, outdated infrastructure, and until recently a historically high Aussie dollar.

  5. Gaffhook

    Anyone else having a problem with Twitter at the moment?

  6. Toorak Toff

    Whatever happened to Kevin’s alleged popularity in Queensland?

    Can some of the vote return to Labor via Katter and Palmer?

    It would seem that the only place where Labor is making up a bit of ground is WA, where Murdoch does not have a metro daily (though the West Australian can be pretty egregious).

  7. mari

    Gaffhook
    Re twitter, no still getting and making tweets and followers in last minutes

  8. BK

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Lenore Taylor says that Hockey can’t admit to a deficit.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/06/bottom-line-joe-hockey-deficit
    Mark Kenny on Abbott’s company tax reduction. Looks very much like the Repugs’ discredited “trickle down economics”. Also Kenny has this to say “would make Mr Abbott’s already diabolical budget balancing act even harder”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/abbott-vows-to-cut-company-tax-rate-20130806-2rdwl.html#ixzz2bE0iJXDf
    Jonathon Holmes on Murdoch, the NBN and the election.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/knives-out-for-rudd-but-whats-in-it-for-rupert-20130806-2rdb6.html
    “The Conversation” has its say on the matter.
    http://theconversation.com/day-three-its-your-turn-to-tweet-rupert-16790?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+7+August+2013&utm_content=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+7+August+2013+CID_4b4f46c3d09c70ae4f92ea80c14a0456&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=Day%20three%20Its%20your%20turn%20to%20tweet%20Rupert
    Are there any OH&S law infringements that might bite Essendon?
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/essendon-players-given-banned-drugs-20130806-2rdvs.html
    Are cracks appearing?
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/bomber-report-rifts-20130806-2rdjy.html
    This potentially presents an interesting legal conundrum.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/outlaw-bikie-gangs-neighbours-refused-insurance-20130806-2rck5.html
    Looks like a backward step.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/sex-education-draft-dreadful-20130806-2rdjd.html
    MUST SEE! Ron Tandberg – forget the “faceless men”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Andrew Dyson on the car industry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    David Rowe on the RBA interest rate annoucement.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    MUST SEE! David Pope excoriates Abbott and Hockey over costings.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html

  9. BK

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Lenore Taylor says that Hockey can’t admit to a deficit.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/06/bottom-line-joe-hockey-deficit
    Mark Kenny on Abbott’s company tax reduction. Looks very much like the Repugs’ discredited “trickle down economics”. Also Kenny has this to say “would make Mr Abbott’s already diabolical budget balancing act even harder”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/abbott-vows-to-cut-company-tax-rate-20130806-2rdwl.html#ixzz2bE0iJXDf
    Jonathon Holmes on Murdoch, the NBN and the election.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/knives-out-for-rudd-but-whats-in-it-for-rupert-20130806-2rdb6.html
    “The Conversation” has its say on the matter.
    http://theconversation.com/day-three-its-your-turn-to-tweet-rupert-16790?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+7+August+2013&utm_content=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+7+August+2013+CID_4b4f46c3d09c70ae4f92ea80c14a0456&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=Day%20three%20Its%20your%20turn%20to%20tweet%20Rupert
    Are there any OH&S law infringements that might bite Essendon?
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/essendon-players-given-banned-drugs-20130806-2rdvs.html
    Are cracks appearing?
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/bomber-report-rifts-20130806-2rdjy.html
    This potentially presents an interesting legal conundrum.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/outlaw-bikie-gangs-neighbours-refused-insurance-20130806-2rck5.html
    Looks like a backward step.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/sex-education-draft-dreadful-20130806-2rdjd.html

  10. sprocket_

    PMKR in Western Sydney today

    and it won’t be the last time

  11. mari

    http://northcoastvoices.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/what-new-zealand-herald-is-telling-its.html brought over from previous blog Kiwis twigged Tony A will Aussies wake up in time?

  12. guytaur

    Good Morning

    @SenatorWong: Great to be in the studio with @sunriseon7’s Mel and Kochie this morning http://t.co/osWmVH2tQb

  13. sprocket_

    Penny Wong as ALP spokesperson for this election is having her profile magnified – and doing very well so far.

    https://twitter.com/SenatorWong/status/364862339213836288/photo/1

  14. victoria

    morning all

    BK

    The cartoon offerings today are rippers as usual!

  15. victoria

    I am interested to know how Rudd will respond to the Abbott business plan

  16. Socrates

    [Are there any OH&S law infringements that might bite Essendon?]
    The short answer is yes, and ignorance does not get them off the hook of OH&S, ASADA or the criminal law. The club has a duty of care to know. At this point the AFL will have no credibility unless they hand down some form of penalty. In other more credible professional sports, two year bans are standard for this type of breach. Some get longer.

    If the players were used as involuntary drug trial subjects, that is a criminal matter, not just OH&S.

  17. guytaur

    @TheAusInstitute: NEW RESEACH at http://t.co/X4CNFdI03R shows jobs, rent, university funding and marriage equality will sway youth vote. #election2013

  18. victoria

    Also the MRRT decision will be handed down at 10.15 today

  19. guytaur

    At the risk of preempting BK’s American round up an interesting article on corporate taxes

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/corporate-tax-lies_b_3709157.html

  20. BK

    [Are there any OH&S law infringements that might bite Essendon?
    Socrates
    Yes. This is what sprang to my mind while reading that article. It adds a whole new dimension to the sporting sensationalism.

  21. Mod Lib

    Good morning all.

    Quite an interesting Reachtel, wasn’t expecting that! Rudd losing votes in his own seat in his own home state that apparently loves him to bits?????

    Perhaps confessions will be happy after all and the ALP will lose this seat as she wishes?

    Peak Rudd, anyone?

  22. my say

    ThumpersAunt 8m
    Slanted coverage has one asking: what’s in it for Murdoch? http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/slanted-coverage-has-one-asking-whats-in-it-for-murdoch-20130806-2rdbv.html … via @brisbanetimes

    View summary

  23. victoria

    Bk

    James Hird is doing everything to protect James Hird.

  24. sprocket_

    ML

    [Peak Rudd, anyone?]

    No

  25. Meguire Bob

    Mod lib

    Wheres the poll about Abbott in qld

    labor gets 54.5% in 6-8 seats the election is dusted for Abbott

  26. Mod Lib

    sprocket_

    There have been projections of the ALP winning 5 or 6 seats in Queensland with their new miracle leader, Kevin Rudd.

    The Reachtel poll with an impressive 700 respondents (impressive for a single seat poll) shows a 4% swing. That kind of swing in Qld means the ALP would actually LOSE 4 seats, not gain 6 seats!

    This is very much one to watch- the marginal seat polling will come over the next few weeks. Lets see what is happening in the marginals. I have felt that the return to Rudd might well have votes in safe ALP seats coming back, but not necessarily votes in ALP marginals….

  27. my say

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 1m
    Re the jobs data tomorrow, will Mr Hockey use same methodology he used for interest rates for the unemployment rate? http://www.percapita.org.au/01_cms/details.asp?ID=623

    Retweeted by Scott

  28. my say

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 1m
    Re the jobs data tomorrow, will Mr Hockey use same methodology he used for interest rates for the unemployment rate? http://www.percapita.org.au/01_cms/details.asp?ID=623

    Retweeted by Scott

  29. victoria

    Well the fibs reckon they are on a winner bagging the interest rate cut for mortgage holders and business generally, and cutting tax rate for big business. Go figure

  30. victoria

    Mod Lib

    What is there to watch. You have already made your predictions as to the outcome of the election. Why are you bothering with your hot air analysis

  31. Meguire Bob

    Labor supporters would not care what rudd is gettng in seat

    What labor supporters want to see 50%+ in other seats more then the newsltd/ Abbott coalition

  32. Mod Lib

    Another poll showing the LNP vote much more solid than the ALP vote….

    Total committed vote from Reachtel Griffiths:
    Labor 76%
    LNP 88%

  33. guytaur

    PMKR presser imminent 24 showing video of press pack

  34. izatso?

    O, victoria, that’s *very* good !

  35. Meguire Bob

    Mod Lib
    Posted Wednesday, August 7, 2013 at 7:53 am | PERMALINK

    The Reachtel poll with an impressive 700 respondents (impressive for a single seat poll) shows a 4% swing. That kind of swing in Qld means the ALP would actually LOSE 4 seats, not gain 6 seats!

    ——————-

    lol mod lib you know these swings arent the same in every seat

    4% swing to labor in qld , is bad news for newsltd/abbott coalition

  36. victoria

    Izatso?

    Why thank you. 🙂

  37. Simon Baker

    Mod Lib – Rudd has always had a big personal vote in his seat which held up in 2010 even as votes swung heavily away from the ALP in the rest of Queensland. It is perfectly possible his own vote could fall but the ALP still pick up seats elsewhere. In any case, after the interest rate cut for ordinary Australians and the Coalition’s tax cut for big business I think the economic news in the last day or two may well get Labor back to neck and neck if not slightly ahead

  38. guytaur

    Bill Shorten now 24

  39. Mod Lib

    [4% swing to labor in qld , is bad news for newsltd/abbott coalition]

    Indeed, just as a 4% swing to LNP in Qld would be a disaster for the ALP (leaving them with only 4 seats in the whole state, and holding one of those 4 by only 0.2%!)

  40. victoria

    This was linked last night by lefty re the betting odds. Worth reposting for those who missed it

    [lefty e
    Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 11:11 pm | PERMALINK
    Suggest you all watch this – to the end!

    http://media.theage.com.au/national/selections/election-barometer-the-real-numbers-men-4633821.html%5D

  41. guytaur

    @Salon: The cyberscare goes on: Ex-NSA chief equates hackers, transparency groups to al-Qaida terrorists http://t.co/xA7EEEBdgv by @natashalennard

  42. Mod Lib

    [Simon Baker
    Posted Wednesday, August 7, 2013 at 8:07 am | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib – Rudd has always had a big personal vote in his seat which held up in 2010 even as votes swung heavily away from the ALP in the rest of Queensland. It is perfectly possible his own vote could fall but the ALP still pick up seats elsewhere.]

    I accept that- hence my comment about this being something “to watch”!

    The point is that the path to victory for the ALP is winning a swag of seats (6 +) in Qld.

    To do that they need a swing of 3% to them on average.
    This poll shows a swing against them of 4%.
    That is a 7% difference on what they need to win.

    Interesting……thats all I am saying :devil:

  43. daretotread

    Bill Glasson is a very strong candidate, so you would expect a shift to some extent in this seat.

    If Kevin Rudd had retired he would certainly have one the seat.

  44. Socrates

    BK, Victoria

    Re: James Hird, when you consider that US Baseball star Alex Rodriguez just got banned for 200 games for also using peptides, it is pretty clear that they are the latest method to beat the system in drugs in sport. My cynical view is that the AFL has been waiting for the end of the regular season to do anything, so as not to lose the gate money from all those Essendon fans who might stop coming if they knew their team was about to be canned.

  45. Meguire Bob

    around the rest of the country Liberal party vote will be well below Labors , as it was in 2010 election

    labor 37.99% national wide

    Liberal Party 30-31%

  46. Mod Lib

    I wonder whether we could have another 2007 with the Prime Minister losing his seat at the same election as his government losing???? :devil:

    With that mischief, I am off to seize the day!

  47. guytaur

    Now PMKR presser Greenway

  48. izatso?

    Hot Air.

    Pofffffff…..