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Federal Election 2013

Aug 8, 2013

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With 30 days to go:

• Labor has resolved its preselection difficulty in Dobell by recruiting Emma McBride, a former Wyong councillor and head of pharmacy at Wyong Hospital. McBride is the daughter of Grant McBride, who held the local state electorate of The Entrance from 1992 to 2011. She had initially been a candidate for the original preselection process which had lately hit a brick wall with the non-ratification of Trevor Drake’s endorsement, but announced her withdrawal in May. It evidently took some strong persuasion by party administration to get her back on board.

• Centrebet has hiked the payout on a Labor victory from $4 to $4.80, with the Coalition in from $1.25 to $1.18, and there is now $4.80 to be had on a Labor win from Betfair against $1.26 for the Coalition. Sportsbet and Tom Waterhouse continue to offer $4 on Labor. Sportsbet has lengthened Labor’s odds in Petrie, Moreton and Parramatta but shortened them in Dobell, presumably on the back of McBride’s endorsement. Labor is now paying $2.50 in Dobell and the Coalition $1.50, compared with $3.50 and $1.25 at the start of the week.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1172 comments

1,172 thoughts on “Highlights of day three

  1. zoidlord

    @CC/853

    Attacking others is like weakest defense.

  2. mexicanbeemer

    Graeme

    Does it really or does it only pick up on those that happen to live in a suburb that has become expensive.

  3. Mod Lib

    I have seen a handful of individual seat polls in the last 6 months, and from my memory all of them have shown about 5 to 20% swing away from the government.

    Can anyone remember any individual seat polls showing a swing TO the ALP?

  4. Compact Crank

    zoidy @873 – so you think the debt financed spending has been counter-cyclical? Prove it.

  5. hairy nose

    How delicious it is to see Murdoch’s public pwning of Abbott via the front page of the Tele.

    It’s gonna be a creeper (the creep getting creeped)

  6. pithicus

    ru @ 859
    Dickson no chance?

  7. frednk

    Inheritance tax; we don’t need it; we have capital gains tax.

  8. shellbell

    Dobell today was 55%-45% which equates to 2010

  9. Meguire Bob

    Mod Lib

    where are these socalled swings against the government

  10. mexicanbeemer

    Nup! It is very hard to see where the ALP can make gains.

    Sure seats like Forde, Boothsby, Dunkley, Aston, Casey, Brisbane might but it is very difficult to see.

  11. zoidlord

    @CC/876

    According to WA Barnett, yes.

    Even NAB says it’s good and we don’t have enough.

    Move it to Infrastructure and Productivity.

  12. Compact Crank

    One Nation acting as a Proxy for the ALP – how nice.

  13. Meguire Bob

    The coaliton has hardly moved from its 2010

    labor is around or has improved from 2010

  14. ruawake

    Mod Lib

    Getting desperate quoting Kenny of the Chris flavour.

  15. Meguire Bob

    if the coalition can not get over 45% primary vote , it remains in opposition

  16. zoidlord

    Just after 5pm – did you all have a meeting?

  17. Mod Lib

    [Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 5:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib

    where are these socalled swings against the government]

    Well there was Wilkie’s seat, I think Bandt’s seat, then there were definitely NSW seats (I think Reachtel??) Husic, Bowen and Shorten’s seats were all polled form memory……all of these were 5%+ swings away from the ALP.

    Now we have these reports of leakes Qld polling showing “none” have the ALP in front as well. We dont know which seats, and whether that means 50:50 or something else, but I am just saying all the data from different states, different seats and different polling companies are showing the same thing: a swing away from the government.

    This government needs a swing TO IT just to get to minority government even.

  18. frednk

    [Compact Crank
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

    zoidy @873 – so you think the debt financed spending has been counter-cyclical? Prove it.]

    I suppose it you world there was no GFC.

    It’s pretty easy to prove, if the government spends and interest rates go up then they are not counter-cylical, example, Howards efforts. If they spend and the interest rate still goes down it is counter-cylical; Rudd’ effort.

    A government should balance the economy not the budget.

  19. Mod Lib

    [shellbell
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 5:16 pm | PERMALINK
    Dobell today was 55%-45% which equates to 2010]

    Link? I havent seen this one.

  20. Meguire Bob

    Mod lib

    newsltd hack article what you linked to says this

    A senior Liberal campaign source says that according to the LNP’s intensive marginal seat opinion polling

    ——————–

    in reality
    means Abbott is on his way losing the unloseable election

  21. mexicanbeemer

    Zoidlord it is interesting that we have been having an interesting conversation about real issues yet the Libs have been silent until after it finished.

  22. Mod Lib

    Well I just got here!

    You need a few folk to be working to earn money, and pay taxes, so you guys can splash it around you know!!! :devil:

  23. izatso?

    Railway in Quebec files for Bankruptcy ….. Culpability.

    ABC in Oz files for Bankruptcy ….. Culpability.

  24. poroti

    Compact Crank

    [
    One Nation acting as a Proxy for the ALP – how nice
    ]
    Ahem ! It was your venerated desiccated coconut who declared after 1998 that your party had to win back One Nation voters and set about adopting the required policies.

  25. zoidlord

    @mexicanbeemer/893

    Yes I did notice that.

    Quiet frankly it’s appalling on the liberal supporters to attack Labor.

  26. mexicanbeemer

    Mod Lib

    When Tone is PM and his government has a few problems and i am sitting at work i will think of you (with evil smirk) lol

  27. Tom the first and best

    879

    Nonsense. We need both. Neither inheritance or capital gains should be untaxed as not taxing them is a way to make the rich richer over time without them doing anything to deserve it and they are separate taxes.

    Capital gains tax taxes increases in property value upon the sale.

    Inheritance tax taxes income received because someone died and their wealth needs to be owned be someone alive.

  28. guytaur

    During campaigns the lack of talent of the LNP shows.

    In terms of talent there are the Greens. SHY is about their worst.
    Then Labor
    Then LNP
    Then KAP
    Then PUP.

    The Greens would do worse if they had to fill the same numbers as the ALP. What shows is the lack of talent on the right.

  29. Meguire Bob

    Mod lib

    Wont get to see abbott in government , it wont happen in reality on in fantasy polling

    Rudd was rubbibng it in

    When he called the election by this statement

    If an election was held yesterday Tony Abbott would have been prime minister

    But poor tony can only dream

  30. mexicanbeemer

    Tom

    Not everyone in an expensive postcode is super wealthy.

  31. frednk

    There be one sad thing about the Liberals losing this election. We will never get to find out how long the collective will be able to tolerate Abbott.

  32. Mod Lib

    mexicanbeemer:

    Let me let you in on a little secret.

    If Abbott wins and does something stupid (like announce East Timor!) I will bag him.

    I know that must just blow the minds of some here, but it is true. I will certainly not be leasing my brain to the LNP, like some here have leased their brains to the ALP, and just mindlessly flip and flip alongside the big party flipping and flopping.

    Remember how the vast majority here bagged Pauline Hanson, Truthy and Generic Person for being harsh to asylum seekers?

    How many of them have flip flopped to the exact opposite and now mouth Pauline Hanson, Truthy and Generic Person type comments?

  33. frednk

    Tom the first.

    You can’t transfer the property without selling it, the capital gain has to be realised.

  34. mexicanbeemer

    Mod Lib

    True there have been some backflips.

    Maybe it is a sign of being here too long 🙁

  35. guytaur

    @guardian: Back to Bedlam: Crossrail digging unearths ancient London burial ground http://t.co/xU6X4TEJMa

  36. Mod Lib

    I actually don’t have a problem with a dramatic change of mind.

    It is the intellectual dishonesty of not admitting that the people you were insulting for the exact same views a year ago were actually right.

    Thats the step they don’t have the courage to make!

  37. Meguire Bob

    Mod Lib

    Who do you prefer as opposition leader after september 7th

    Morrison , Hockey

  38. Mod Lib

    [Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 5:31 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib

    Who do you prefer as opposition leader after september 7th

    Morrison , Hockey]

    They are in the Liberal Party, I think you mean Shorten if you are talking LOTO.

  39. BK

    MD
    George Christensen

  40. frednk

    Mod Lib
    I think getting this circus in is a hill to far even for Murdoch.

  41. guytaur

    “@captainbrown: Tis true – Aus Army now dressed by Vuitton RT @scaprallion: @captainbrown RMW is majority French owned by Louis Vuitton, Moet, Hennessy”

  42. AussieAchmed

    Sun Herald, Paul Sheehan, argues that the campaign against the Rudd Government by the News Ltd newspapers is because Rupert Murdoch believes his Foxtel Pay TV business is threatened by the construction of the NBN and would prefer the Coalition’s approach to the NBN.

    the Coalition’s approach to the NBN poses a more substantial and immediate threat to the Foxtel business model than does Labor’s

  43. poroti

    Meguire Bob

    Vote 1 Christopher Pyne 😆

  44. Meguire Bob

    Mod Lib
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 5:32 pm | PERMALINK
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 5:31 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib

    They are in the Liberal Party,

    ————————

    The liberal party will not win the election with Abbott , he has join John Hewson

    Newsltd hacks have given the game up on that

  45. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/905

    I like to see all policies announced including AS policy before the election not days/weeks/months after the election.

    TA!

  46. Meguire Bob

    poroti
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 5:35 pm | PERMALINK
    Meguire Bob

    Vote 1 Christopher Pyne

    ———–

    If he still in parliament , that would be my choice as well 🙂

  47. guytaur

    @BBCWorld: Row deepens in Australia as Rupert Murdoch-owned tabloid continues to rubbish PM Kevin Rudd ahead of elections http://t.co/TvBchwbmIb

  48. Centre

    Well you just beat me to it, Mod Lib.

    You’re a worker, and you vote Liberal – clown 😯

  49. matt31

    I was only thinking the other day that I was surprised at how little marginal seat polling we had seen. I seem to remember that very soon after Rudd’s return we did see polling suggesting a swing back to Labor in Qld marginals though.

    As I said last night, I still feel the Coalition are favourites and slightly ahead, but I suspect it is closer than some on here and in the media think. The weekend polling will be quite telling imho.

  50. AussieAchmed

    into a room to thrash things out on just where they stand …

    Tony Abbott: “Overall, the 66% of Australian school students who attend public schools get 79% of government funding. The 34% of Australians who attend independent schools get just 21% of government funding. So there is no question of injustice to public schools here. If anything, the injustice is the other way.”

    So Abbott plans to reduce public school Govt funding and increase private school funding by Govt

  51. izatso?

    Crossrail back to Bedlam ….

    thanx guytaur.

  52. Centre

    Who suggested no captal gains tax?

    On securities, excluding property to keep prices lower, I am in like Flyn 😉

    Let’s be clear, inheritance tax is a Greens policy of sheer lunacy!

  53. BH

    Rua Speers said this arvo that internal Labor polling has 8 Qld seats 50/50. The coment was made in response to Libs saying they were well in front.

  54. geoffrey

    meguire bill

    you can be the resident prophet here

    paine has been great in wilderness but a little non optimistic at times

    champagne already

  55. Gaffhook

    The 24 interview with Julie Posetti on skype is a perfect example of why we need FTTH NBN.

  56. Meguire Bob

    Speaking of pyne

    Has there been a debate scheduled with labor on education etc

  57. jenauthor

    [the Coalition’s approach to the NBN poses a more substantial and immediate threat to the Foxtel business model than does Labor’s]

    No it doesn’t.

    Rupert is afraid of direct to computer movie/TV technologies … under 25bps that technology spends a lot of time buffering. So ppl will likely stay with foxtel.

    100 bps will facilitate most current technologies and likely future ones. People can cut Murdoch Fox out of the mix. He’ll lose heaps.

  58. Mod Lib

    Centrebet $4.50 (LNP $1.20)
    Betfair $4.30 ($1.28)

  59. Meguire Bob

    geoffrey

    What would put a smile on people’s faces if the election did turn out similar to 2010

    Will Abbott be replace , if the coalition want a chance to be in government

  60. briefly

    [831
    Compact Crank

    When is the ALP bringing in Death Duties and CGT on private homes?]

    Do you want to pay these?

  61. frednk

    [Mod Lib
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

    Centrebet $4.50 (LNP $1.20)
    Betfair $4.30 ($1.28)]

    And as poeple have found you can’t place a large bet on Labor. Come in sucker.

  62. AussieAchmed

    Meguire Bob

    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

    Speaking of pyne

    Has there been a debate scheduled with labor on education etc
    ————————————————

    Pyne is still stuck in the Howard years and seems to think nothing has changed in the past 6 years.

    3 questions in 2 years in Parliament QT…yep he “cares” about education…truth is all he cared about was the extra money as a Shadow Min

  63. AussieAchmed

    sorry that should read

    3 questions in 3 years

  64. guytaur

    @abcnews: In case you missed it: Essendon players are given no guarantee they will be free to play in the AFL finals http://t.co/xyfG0KOcSN

  65. blackburnpseph

    [Speers said this arvo that internal Labor polling has 8 Qld seats 50/50.]

    As there are 8 seats held on both sides with margins of 3% or less that is probably hardly surprising.

  66. jenauthor

    [Tony Abbott: “Overall, the 66% of Australian school students who attend public schools get 79% of government funding. The 34% of Australians who attend independent schools get just 21% of government funding. So there is no question of injustice to public schools here. If anything, the injustice is the other way.”]

    This does not take into account the buildings/maintenance of same. Also private schools charge high fees. When factored in, non govt schools get MUCH more per student than govt schools.

  67. guytaur

    @PolitiFactOz: The PM, @KRuddMP, says Australia’s debt is one of the lowest in the developed world. We’ve rated that True: http://t.co/lgvEFg4fjm #auspol

  68. guytaur

    My first sighting of Brandis for campaign

  69. Tom Hawkins

    [Has there been a debate scheduled with labor on education etc]

    Abbott’s ‘me too’ approach to Gonski was partly to protect Pyne from a debate … after all, their rational is, what’s the point of a debate when we already agree with the other side. Pyne weaseled his way around that potential humiliation pretty easily with Tone as leader. Turnbull would have said “get out there and fight like a man you pathetic weakling.”

  70. blackburnpseph

    [What would put a smile on people’s faces if the election did turn out similar to 2010]

    A hung parliament is probably the last thing the Australian people need or want.

  71. Centre

    Labor in marginally on Centrebet it seems.

    I’d have to check the overall market but that spells G S T to me.

    They’ve campaigned on carbon tax cost of living increases yet want to increase the GST?

    Rudd should say “the carbon tax 😆 that’s not a tax…the GST, now that’s a tax 😐

    Win some votes 😎

  72. spur212

    Hypothetically assuming the Liberal Party internal polling was accurate, if you were confident about your prospects, why would you “leak” it? … More to the point, why would you “leak” it to Chris Kenny?

  73. Tom Hawkins

    [Rudd should say “the carbon tax 😆 that’s not a tax…the GST, now that’s a tax 😐

    Win some votes 😎 ]

    Now I do like that line.

  74. mexicanbeemer

    O please no hung parliament

    Give someone at least a one seat majority.

  75. Spider

    Bloody Rabbit still going on about the Forde candidate being dropped for Beattie. Seems to me someone should remind him about how his mate Morrison won pre-selection.

  76. poroti

    jenauthor

    [
    Rupert is afraid of direct to computer movie/TV technologies … under 25bps that technology spends a lot of time buffering. So ppl will likely stay with Foxtel]
    Not to mention the new but growing 4k Uber Uber HD TV that is new and growing. You need FTTH to do it properly.

    http://www.nbnco.com.au/blog/4k-ultra-hd-tv-over-nbn-going-to-be-huge.html

  77. Diogenes

    As promised yesterday,

    Dio’s iDIOt of the day

    No contest today. Stephanie Banister, One Nation candidate who is a dangerously ignorant bigot.

    [Stephanie Banister, a 27-year-old mother of two, is facing criminal charges after allegedly placing anti-Muslim stickers, like “Halal food funds terrorism”, on Nestle products in a supermarket.

    Never mind that though. Ms Banister has bigger problems.

    In an interview with Channel Seven, which aired last night, Ms Banister revealed her dearth of knowledge on, well, everything.

    “I don’t oppose Islam as a country, but I do feel that their laws should not be welcome here in Australia,” she said, apparently oblivious to the fact that Islam is a religion, not a country.

    Arguing for a ban on Halal food last night, Ms Banister said “less than two per cent of Australians follow Haram.”

    In any case, Ms Banister doesn’t have a problem with Jewish Kosher food.

    “Jews aren’t under Haram, they have their own religion which follows Jesus Christ,” she said.]

  78. blackburnpseph

    [When factored in, non govt schools get MUCH more per student than govt schools.]

    Not necessarily, Catholic systemic schools (in Victoria at least) work at very similar income levels as government schools. Parents pay about 50%, government funding the remainder.

  79. briefly

    The infrastructure spending in WA is so very long overdue. It will pay for itself several times over. For many years, starting with Richard Court, in particular, there was very weak investment in WA. We have a lot of catching up to do.

    State debt will run to a bit more than $10,000 per capita, but this is not excessive. Using the bond rate to calculate the required return, it will very easily become self-liquidating.

  80. guytaur

    Mexican

    No a hung parliament would be great. We would get to watch the leadership change of the LNP at light speed to replace Mr I will not negotiate no wants to buy my a**

  81. Mod Lib

    [guytaur
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 5:46 pm | PERMALINK
    @PolitiFactOz: The PM, @KRuddMP, says Australia’s debt is one of the lowest in the developed world. We’ve rated that True: http://t.co/lgvEFg4fjm #auspol]

    We have $17k per person of government debt?

    Y I K E S……….who is going to have to pay that off???????

  82. guytaur

    ML

    It could be worse. You could live anywhere other than Australia where the debt is greater.

    Shows how restrained the government has been on spending.

  83. AussieAchmed

    Spider

    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

    Bloody Rabbit still going on about the Forde candidate being dropped for Beattie. Seems to me someone should remind him about how his mate Morrison won pre-selection.
    —————————————————-
    The faceless men put the candidates mother in Hosp

    The candidate won a defamation case

  84. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/955

    I suppose you wish that we have surplus and broken infrastructure like Howard did with Telstra copper?

  85. Centre

    [A hung parliament is probably the last thing the Australian people need or want.]

    Why?

    Because Abbott and Murdoch said so!

    The parliament worked, it passed legislation, Abbott dumped shit all round the house in protest – that was your problem!

  86. Spider

    Jesus I hate George Brandis DH.

  87. Kevin Bonham

    Mod Lib@889


    Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 5:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib

    where are these socalled swings against the government


    Well there was Wilkie’s seat, I think Bandt’s seat, then there were definitely NSW seats (I think Reachtel??) Husic, Bowen and Shorten’s seats were all polled form memory……all of these were 5%+ swings away from the ALP.[..]

    There is just not that much published seat-polling since the return of Rudd that is not “internal polling”.

    Seats I’ve seen published, non-party-commissioned polls of since Rudd returned are Griffith, Lyons, Bass, Braddon, Maribyrnong, Blaxland, Chisholm, McMahon. All by ReachTEL. All showed swings to the Coalition but in the case of Chisholm a negligible one, effectively a swing to Labor taking into account ReachTEL’s apparent house effect.

    As for “internal polling” there is so much bulldust surrounding it that it’s not worth taking anything about it seriously unless you can see not only the results but the questions as asked, verbatim. However last week the Coalition were conceding 3 of their own seats to Labor based on seat sampling; not sure of the sample size.

    If the 2PP stays where it is Labor will gain swings and probably seats somewhere (as well as losing more). It just happens that the seats that get picked for public seat polling aren’t representative. They’re often suspected trouble spots or otherwise unusual.

    The Gillard era seat polls are pretty useless now.

  88. AussieAchmed

    briefly

    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

    The infrastructure spending in WA is so very long overdue. It will pay for itself several times over. For many years, starting with Richard Court, in particular, there was very weak investment in WA. We have a lot of catching up to do.

    State debt will run to a bit more than $10,000 per capita, but this is not excessive. Using the bond rate to calculate the required return, it will very easily become self-liquidating.
    ——————————————————

    most infrastructure built by Labor,

    Even the money to pay for Fiona Stanley had been set aside before Colon was elected

  89. Tom Hawkins

    [Hypothetically assuming the Liberal Party internal polling was accurate, if you were confident about your prospects, why would you “leak” it? … More to the point, why would you “leak” it to Chris Kenny?]

    The Libs phone hook up with their candidates a week or two ago telling them

    DON’T PANIC!

    was pretty tell tale.

    My guess is the leaked data is BS and there are several reasons to panic. With Beattie on board the needle will have moved from ‘mild panic’ to ‘Oh, shit.’

  90. AussieAchmed

    zoidlord

    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 5:54 pm | Permalink

    @Mod Lib/955

    I suppose you wish that we have surplus and broken infrastructure like Howard did with Telstra copper?
    —————————————————–

    and let’s remember Howards asbestos pits

  91. Tom Hawkins

    [Y I K E S……….who is going to have to pay that off???????]

    Depends on who wins the election

  92. matt31

    A hung Parliament with Labor relying on Bandt! To quote a 90s ad for the AFL, I’d like to see that!

  93. Tom Hawkins

    [A hung Parliament with Labor relying on Bandt! ]

    Let the LNP govern in that scenario. It will come crashing down within 6 months as Labor picks and chooses the legislation on its merits. Abbott could organise a piss up in a brewery.

  94. Centre

    I’m going to do a Shows On 🙂

    G S T

    MOFOS

    😎

  95. BK

    Diog
    The iDIOt of the day – no contest!

  96. Tom Hawkins

    actually Abbott couldn’t organise a piss up in a brewery nor teach a monkey to eat bananas

  97. blackburnpseph

    A question for any of you out there who live in Deakin, Corangamite, and La Trobe – or even Chisholm.

    As you all know I live in Deakin – second most marginal Labor seat in the nation. As yet, bar the postal voting information, we have received no advertising material from the Labor Party during the campaign and nothing for months. We have had several rounds from the Libs and stuff has been coming for months. There are no Labor corflutes out in front yards but there are a lot more Liberal ones than last time.

    Have the ALP given up on Deakin – even payback fro Mike Symon being seen to support Julia Gillard – have they no money and saving it up for later. I regularly drive through Chisholm and have seen Liberal corflutes out but no Labor ones.

    Is what we are experiencing in Deakin happening in the other Victorian marginals – or what is happening in Aston or Dunkley – very marginal Liberal?

  98. CTar1

    ModLib is watching ‘Minuscule’ so leave her alone.

  99. ruawake

    How about a hung Parliament relying on Katter and Barnaby Joyce?

    There are worse things than losing. 🙂

  100. guytaur

    David Miles unhinging on the Drum.

  101. Mod Lib

    [BK
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 6:03 pm | PERMALINK
    Diog
    The iDIOt of the day – no contest!]

    Dio:

    Peter Beattie was in the running surely? :devil:

  102. CTar1

    [David Miles unhinging ]

    New news?

  103. Psephos

    Who cares what One Nation candidates think? One Nation must be down to its last 100 loonies by now.

    Jaymes Diaz, by contrast, is the Liberal candidate for a key frontline marginal seat. He was chosen in the expectation that he would win. Yet he’s obviously a complete nong and unfit to be an MP. And they clearly knew this, because he was an awful candidate in 2010, and Abbott tried to stop him being chosen again.
    http://www.blacktownsun.com.au/story/240631/diaz-greenway-candidate-in-hiding/
    But he was chosen again, because of the power of the extreme right Clarke faction, gained by ethnic-religious branch-stacking in western Sydney, in this case among Filipinos.

  104. guytaur

    Ctar

    No just reacting to Beattie Candidacy

  105. Just Me

    909
    Mod Lib
    [It is the intellectual dishonesty…]

    Wouldn’t gaze too deeply into that mirror, if I was you.

  106. izatso?

    guytaur/Ctar1

    Crossrail is to Bedlam …..
    as
    NBN
    is to Murdoch.

    uhuh ….

  107. Tom Hawkins

    [the power of the extreme right Clarke faction, gained by ethnic-religious branch-stacking in western Sydney, in this case among Filipinos]

    OMG, there are faceless men in the LNP?!!

  108. Gary

    To keep the troops positive what do you do? You release BS internal polling.

  109. Mod Lib

    [guytaur
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 6:06 pm | PERMALINK
    David Miles unhinging on the Drum.]

    Better than Heff, surely?

  110. blackburnpseph

    [But he was chosen again, because of the power of the extreme right Clarke faction, gained by ethnic-religious branch-stacking in western Sydney, in this case among Filipinos.]

    Isn’t it nice to know Adam that the ALP is not alone in having ethnic-religious branch stacks ….

  111. ruawake

    [Peter Beattie was in the running surely?]

    Peter Beattie was a very popular Premier of Qld. The Libs had 5 members of Parliament in Qld when he retired.

    He is a huge plus for the ALP in Qld. Remember him pushing Sir Joh around in a wheelchair? Even rusted on Nats like him.

  112. CTar1

    [in this case among Filipinos.]

    It’s funny that Fillipa’s have a different attitude to lots of things.

  113. AussieAchmed

    Psephos

    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    Who cares what One Nation candidates think? One Nation must be down to its last 100 loonies by now.

    Jaymes Diaz, by contrast, is the Liberal candidate for a key frontline marginal seat. He was chosen in the expectation that he would win. Yet he’s obviously a complete nong and unfit to be an MP. And they clearly knew this, because he was an awful candidate in 2010, and Abbott tried to stop him being chosen again.
    http://www.blacktownsun.com.au/story/240631/diaz-greenway-candidate-in-hiding/
    But he was chosen again, because of the power of the extreme right Clarke faction, gained by ethnic-religious branch-stacking in western Sydney, in this case among Filipinos.
    ——————————————————–

    WHAT??? you mean there are faceless men factions among the Liberals??

    Wow – what a surprise!!!

    The way the media talk a person would believe they only exist because of unions

  114. pithicus

    regarding the so called leaked lnp marginal polls.
    I have the feeling the libs don’t want underdog status this election.

  115. Mod Lib

    When you are going to win a seat why recruit a candidate that said a few months ago that Kevin Rudd should resign from parliament at this election?

  116. guytaur

    Denis Atkins praising Beattie

  117. Gary

    How about quoting the odds closer to the election when they’ll have more meaning if at all.

  118. Tom Hawkins

    [When you are going to win a seat why recruit a candidate that said a few months ago that Kevin Rudd should resign from parliament at this election?]

    When?

    When the leader is Rudd, the candidate is Beattie and the opposition leader is Abbott.

    You know it makes sense.

  119. guytaur

    ML

    Didn’t take you long to pick up the Newscorpse talking point

  120. Centre

    Graham Richardson reckons Labor will gain 2 or 3 tops in QLD but will lose in NSW and TAS and maybe a seat in Vic.

    You are probably looking at 78/79 seats for Coalition.

  121. Fran Barlow

    Dio

    I’ll give Ms Banister this … she might be utterly ignorant and thick into the bargain, and almost inevitably with those credentials, a dangerous bigot, but she did have the insight to grasp how she appeared to others, asserting that her words had been used to make out she was “a stand up criminal and moron”.

    Kudos for that …

  122. Fran Barlow

    Dio

    I’ll give Ms Banister this … she might be utterly ignorant and thick into the bargain, and almost inevitably with those credentials, a dangerous bigot, but she did have the insight to grasp how she appeared to others, asserting that her words had been used to make out she was “a stand up criminal and moron”.

    Kudos for that …

  123. ruawake

    I have the list for ALP campaign NFD in Qld this weekend. Out of 9 seats only 2 are held by the ALP.

  124. Gary

    ML is a mouthpiece for the Libs, we all know that.

  125. Mod Lib

    [Didn’t take you long to pick up the Newscorpse talking point]

    I don’t have access to The Australian since the paywall.

    It doesn’t take much to work out that if your candidate thinks their leader should have resigned from parliament at this election, that aint such a great endoresement!

    …but don’t let me stop you, polish to your heart’s content as far as I am concerned :devil:

  126. guytaur

    Centre

    Given Richo’s predictive record that probably means the LNP will retain 8 HOR seats.

  127. Centre

    The odds have more meaning now than closer to the election.

  128. Mod Lib

    [ruawake
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 6:18 pm | PERMALINK
    I have the list for ALP campaign NFD in Qld this weekend. Out of 9 seats only 2 are held by the ALP.]

    What is an NFD?

  129. Gary

    Richardson wrote off Gillard many times to. Eventually he got it right.

  130. Meguire Bob

    Centre
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 6:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Graham Richardson reckons Labor will gain 2 or 3 tops in QLD but will lose in NSW and TAS and maybe a seat in Vic.

    You are probably looking at 78/79 seats for Coalition.
    Centre
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 6:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Graham Richardson reckons Labor will gain 2 or 3 tops in QLD but will lose in NSW and TAS and maybe a seat in Vic.

    You are probably looking at 78/79 seats for Coalition.Centre
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 6:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Graham Richardson reckons Labor will gain 2 or 3 tops in QLD but will lose in NSW and TAS and maybe a seat in Vic.

    You are probably looking at 78/79 seats for Coalition.Centre
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 6:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Graham Richardson reckons Labor will gain 2 or 3 tops in QLD but will lose in NSW and TAS and maybe a seat in Vic.

    You are probably looking at 78/79 seats for Coalition.Centre
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 6:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Graham Richardson reckons Labor will gain 2 or 3 tops in QLD but will lose in NSW and TAS and maybe a seat in Vic.

    You are probably looking at 78/79 seats for Coalition.Centre
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 6:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Graham Richardson reckons Labor will gain 2 or 3 tops in QLD but will lose in NSW and TAS and maybe a seat in Vic.

    You are probably looking at 78/79 seats for Coalition.

    ———-

    Likely labor win then

    Richardson did predict abott to win by 10 seats in 2010

  131. geoffrey

    guytaur

    that is good news – BBC on murdoch – lid is lifted on the 5 years can of worms – what a smelly infestation it is to – all other wrongs pale by comparison – drown the mangy puppies

  132. adrian

    ‘OMG, there are faceless men in the LNP?!!’

    No, say it isn’t so! Do they have secret beers at public Bavarian beer cafes and get dressed up as Nazis?

  133. jenauthor

    [Jesus I hate George Brandis DH.]

    Spider – he is dispicable … I’ve had email exchanges with him …. ’nuff said

  134. guytaur

    @strom_m: Kudos @edmundtadros “@FinancialReview: Poll of Polls now features *9* sources of data. http://t.co/7pEkFxxt3yhttp://t.co/yFkydDCdq0

  135. Tom Hawkins

    ru

    What does

    NFD

    mean in that context?

    I know it can mean

    No Fucking Doubt

    but that’s not what you mean?

  136. Gary

    Just saw a GST add for Labor. Short and biting. Quotes by Abbott and Hockey. Very good.

  137. FarQU

    Crank

    [Now when it is time for some counter-cyclical debt funded spending we aren’t in the best position to do it]

    All that spendings going at the same time all over Australia. Debt is debt’s the word from the Liberal party. We’re the party of surplus is the word from the Liberal party. Bullshit the lot of it.

  138. Meguire Bob

    Gary
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 6:20 pm | PERMALINK
    Richardson wrote off Gillard many times to. Eventually he got it right.

    ———–

    Yes Richardson predicted Gillard to lose by 10 seats in 2010

    so going on his record he will be wrong for another 100 + predictions

  139. adrian

    ‘Didn’t take you long to pick up the Newscorpse talking point

    I don’t have access to The Australian since the paywall.’

    Yes, but I’m sure you have a fax machine. Or has Menzies House cottoned onto this new fangled e-mail thingo yet?

  140. Centre

    No Richardson is highly respected and his record is not too bad at all.

    He thinks Abbott will win but Labor will do much better that Rudd is PM.

  141. geoffrey

    what about libs covert school policy (it us in print) to fund all schools as ‘independent’ via coupons direct to parents and dismantling education departments – the disparities will grow and grow … imagine abbott let loose on hospitals

  142. Gary

    Just because Richo says it doesn’t make it so.

  143. guytaur

    Maxine Mckew getting very close to gloating listing LNP campaign fails

  144. Centre

    [The odds have more meaning now than closer to the election.]

    Why is that Centre?

    Because you won’t be able to get on closer to the election 😛

  145. guytaur

    “@betterrant: Best quote ever on #TheDrum “Peter Costello would beat himself off with a stick”. I think you meant ‘him’ @samanthamaiden”

  146. Centre

    G S T

    Mofos!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  147. poroti

    Richo says a lot of things and hangs out with Alan Jones. You can work it our from there.

  148. FarQU

    [Not everyone in an expensive postcode is super wealthy.]

    Indeed, most of them are poor, especially the who ones who earn 150 thousand.

  149. Darn

    In 2007 it was expected that Labor would do really well in QLD – Rudd being a Queenslander and all – but by the last week of the campaign we were hearing that certain polls were showing that they would be struggling to win more than one or two seats there. A few days later it turned out to be about ten as I recall. So you’ll forgive me if my BS metre is on red alert at the moment, especially since this alleged internal polling has appeared just in time to coincide with Peter Beatty’s reappearance. It all looks just too convenient.

    We will get a much better idea about how things are really going when the reputable polls all appear early next week.

  150. Tom Hawkins

    Centre

    [G S T

    Mofos!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!]

    GST I understand. What is

    Mofos?

  151. Diogenes

    Psephos

    [

    Who cares what One Nation candidates think? One Nation must be down to its last 100 loonies by now.

    Jaymes Diaz, by contrast, is the Liberal candidate for a key frontline marginal seat. ]

    Diaz was the inaugural winner yesterday.

  152. Mod Lib

    [Indeed, most of them are poor, especially the who ones who earn 150 thousand.]

    Families on $150k in the inner city suburbs of Sydney with 2 kids would be needing to go to the soup kitchen for a feed every now and then :devil:

  153. Meguire Bob

    Richardson is being paid by newsltd

    He is not going to go against the newsltd/abbott coalition agenda

    Abbott must be in front campaign

  154. AussieAchmed

    adrian

    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

    ‘OMG, there are faceless men in the LNP?!!’

    No, say it isn’t so! Do they have secret beers at public Bavarian beer cafes and get dressed up as Nazis?
    ——————————————————–

    funny

  155. Centre

    What a loser Peter Costello turned out to be?

    I remember him accusing Beazley of being weak!

    Beazley fought 2 elections as a Labor leader, Cossie didn’t have the ticker to even be opposition leader, all he had to do was hang round to become PM.

    Costello – you deserve it!

  156. Tom the first and best

    1027

    I did not know that nobless/richess oblige was law in NSW/inner Sydney now.

  157. Mod Lib

    Maxine McKew has “deep reservations” about Rudd’s PNG Rendition policies.

    Good on you!

  158. blackburnpseph

    The Henry Review should have had the GST on the table – it should have been considered as an option but Rudd and Swan were too scared to include it.

  159. CTar1

    Mod Lib

    [Families on $150k]

    Your standard useless post.

  160. Centre

    TH

    Ask Shows On, stuffed if I know 😆

  161. Mod Lib

    The Mo stands for mothers…..you will understand if I don’t give you the rest!

  162. ruawake

    [What is an NFD?]

    For me to know and you to find out on Saturday. 😛

  163. blackburnpseph

    Darn@1024

    As Kevin Bonham said above, best to ignore internal polling altogether. Internal only becomes external for a reason.

  164. Centre

    b @ 1033

    The Labor Party opposes regressive taxes.

    Do you know what a regressive tax is?

    Can you understand how a regressive tax works?

  165. blackburnpseph

    Diogs

    Will you provide a full list at the end of the campaign of your iDIOt of the day?

  166. Centre

    The boats have slowed.

    Like where you read it first.

    That’s right Mod Lib, where you read it first!

    What did you read, right here first?

    That NOBODY will pay a people smuggler for a boat ride to Australia if they can’t get into Australia 😛

  167. CTar1

    Centre – Cossie a throw away.

    Thanks for the no value ‘fish’.

  168. frednk

    [blackburnpseph
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 6:34 pm | Permalink

    Diogs

    Will you provide a full list at the end of the campaign of your iDIOt of the day?]
    To be real classy it would be a growing list with a link to the videos.

  169. poroti

    adrian

    [‘OMG, there are faceless men in the LNP?!!’

    No, say it isn’t so! Do they have secret beers at public Bavarian beer cafes and get dressed up as Nazis?
    ]
    Quite possibly as it turns out.

    [Ardent Nazi took Liberal to extremes.

    He was also the last, and most powerful, of the central and eastern European Nazi collaborators and war criminals who infiltrated the Liberal Party from the 1950s and coalesced with Australian rightists to form the “Uglies” faction.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/obituaries/ardent-nazi-took-liberal-to-extremes/2006/03/03/1141191845008.html

  170. blackburnpseph

    Centre

    The GST is also largely discretionary as well – as a consumer you can pay $4 on a $40 product or $40 on a $400 more expensive version of the same product. The reason that the GST is not pulling in is that there has been large scale retail price deflation. Also, the economy is relatively flat and there is less activity in the construction and professional services sectors.

  171. frednk

    Nick Dole ‏@NicholasDole 6m

    Labor has written back to Libs, agreeing to Sunday debate at NPC, broadcast by ABC and split to all networks.

  172. Centre

    Who was weak?

    Karma on weak Costello 🙂

  173. guytaur

    Drum now doing Murdoch

  174. zoidlord

    Interesting that they are using PNG as part of their attack run.

    Is it a weak link ?

  175. dave

    Graeme@871


    “When is the ALP bringing in Death Duties”

    Inheritance tax? We can only hope. It works well enough in the Land of the Free. With a high threshold it captures some of the windfall of the children of the super wealthy.

    Yet the surviving 6 heirs to the Walmart fortune have more wealth than the bottom 42% of Americans.

    http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/07/walmart-heirs-waltons-wealth-income-inequality

    Many of the countries we usually compare ourselves have Inheritance taxes.

  176. Centre

    b @ 1045

    Sheezus!

  177. Diogenes

    bbp

    [Will you provide a full list at the end of the campaign of your iDIOt of the day?]

    Certainly. I expect there to be plenty of material.

  178. zoidlord

    @BBS/1045

    So perhaps reducing the GST may increase the retail? and thus more revenue ?

  179. silmaj

    Centre@1039
    The fbt tax adjustment that caused Macmillan Shakespeare’s share value to lose 1 billion dollars in a week could be called regressive for anyone who happened to be a holder at the time.

  180. Centre

    silmaj

    Sheezus!

  181. guytaur

    Mckew upset Newscorps employee and David Miles by pointing out Murdochs days are numbered. Just look at The Washington Post

  182. Centre

    silmaj

    Fixing a loophole on a tax benefit can’t make it regressive 😯

    But I do take it you were kidding!

  183. ruawake

    If we had variable sales taxes they could have been increased at a lower rate than consumer goods deflation.

    More revenue, dumb Costello.

  184. guytaur

    @vanbadham: Those following Sophie Mirabella’s desperate plea to her supporters to write letters to newspapers… THIS is GOLD: https://t.co/xe0Y2Hwr2u

  185. Kevin Bonham

    ReachTEL Beattie Forde poll coming tonight!

  186. Centre

    If Rudd is going down, well actually if I was going down, I’d take phone hacker with me 😉

  187. dave

    [ Pyne is still stuck in the Howard years and seems to think nothing has changed in the past 6 years. ]

    Howard never promoted pyne in all those years.

    Must have had a reason.

  188. Sean Tisme

    Can someone remind me what Maxine McKook used to do before she became a Labor politician??

    Perhaps someone can refresh my memory… after all she’s talking about Murdoch’s bias in favour of the Coalition. 🙂

  189. guytaur

    Sean

    Thanks for confirming how good McKew was on the Drum tonight 🙂

  190. silmaj

    The share price went from $18.00 to $6.50 in three days and when I last looked it was around $9.00. Maybe it could be an indicator of who might win. And yes the drop in market cap was approx 1 billion

  191. zoidlord

    @silmaj/1054

    The risk of investing:
    http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/02/27/1077676963602.html

    “The acquisition will cost about $32.5 million, and about half the company’s 200 staff, plus private investors, have taken up shares. Some have mortgaged their houses to do so.”

  192. ruawake

    Tism

    What media network did Maxine own?

  193. poroti

    jenauthor

    How about Tones doing “The Hustle” ?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvGNDOQ6LBw

  194. FarQU

    [Families on $150k in the inner city suburbs of Sydney with 2 kids would be needing to go to the soup kitchen for a feed every now and then]

    And probably nick the bloody cutlery as well

  195. lefty e

    [A senior Liberal campaign source says that according to the LNP’s intensive marginal seat opinion polling, the ALP is not ahead in any of the key seats in the Sunshine State.]

    This *might* be true, but I certainly wont believe it from ‘a senior Liberal source’. LOL.

    They would say that, wouldn they?

  196. Centre

    Yeah Tisme

    Did Maxine ever pay News Ltd journos salaries?

  197. the spectator

    so has abbott clarified how much he is proposing to increase the gst by yet?

  198. guytaur

    “@Lateline: On #lateline tonight what role has Catholic Church Insurance played in designing the church response to abuse? A fmr adviser speaks out.”

  199. FarQU

    [The reason that the GST is not pulling in is that there has been large scale retail price deflation. Also, the economy is relatively flat and there is less activity in the construction and professional services sectors]

    The GST should be placed on all goods and services bought online from sites based overseas.

  200. ruawake

    [so has abbott clarified how much he is proposing to increase the gst by yet?]

    He is waiting for State Premiers to tell him.

  201. guytaur

    Clarke and Dawe abc1

  202. zoidlord

    @FarQU/1077

    Then people complain, geoblocking mark II.

  203. Centre

    *catch u later

    Don’t forget MOFOS

    G S T

    To get out on the last 😯

  204. ruawake

    [The GST should be placed on all goods and services bought online from sites based overseas.]

    How? Ask Amazon nicely?

  205. the spectator

    austerity abbott

  206. lefty e

    [Labor has written back to Libs, agreeing to Sunday debate at NPC, broadcast by ABC and split to all networks.]

    Good

  207. ruawake

    “The blue wire is very expensive” Clarke and Dawe. If it is safe to do so.

  208. ruawake

    [Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 14m
    ReachTEL just made me moist ]

  209. zoidlord

    Clarke & Dawe:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMayFCs5snQ

    One on TV is already on Youtube, the awesomeness of Internet.

  210. my say

    http://www.alp.org.au/kevin_thanks_michelle

    this is a nice story
    of the the libs want like it

  211. James J

    Reachtel Forde poll: 54-46 2PP to the LNP

  212. Spider

    frednk [990]

    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    Something nice
    http://safeshare.tv/w/OXHZUxUXXN

    Fred, Thank you for that, it was delightful

  213. ruawake

    Tony will cut company tax “when its safe to do so”.

    This could catch on. 🙂

  214. marky marky

    Abbott’s economic theory alot of debt so let’s cut the company tax, makes sense to me… It must be a big worry this debt to be able to afford a cut to the company tax..

  215. Smaug

    How can the betting markets be included in poll stats as per the AFR poll of polls and retain any semblance of accuracy. By definition betting markets are reactionary and subject to movement on the basis of poll results. In effect aggregation of betting stats with polling stats introduces a degree of recursivity that will skew the results with a feedback loop.

  216. marky marky

    So this is how it work’ we increase the GST so no matter if you are rich or poor you pay the same rate but the rich big companies can get their cut so they can pay higher wages to their rich executives.. Sounds fair to Tony Abbott.

  217. rummel

    Lol, Labor Rudd bring back Peter Beattie. Hahahahahaaha ha

    Libs may as well bring back JWH, a real PM. Kevin is a laugh a minute. Pass the beers!

    Cheers.

  218. Mod Lib

    James J

    I take it that is pre-Beattie?

  219. Mod Lib

    Can I suggest that you guys bring back Paul Keating?

    You think he was wonderful so no doubt it would be good to have him back, no?

    Hehe 🙂

  220. marky marky

    So what did John Howard do in his 11 years which benefited working people and pensioners?

  221. Sean Tisme

    LOL!!!

    There were some protestors against the ALP in Forde.

    Rudd said “The fact that the Local LNP put together a gaggle of folks out the front says to me one thing, their a bit anxious”

    Should have seen Beatties face in the background… went from 🙂 to :/ LOL

    Rudd’s such a dickhead. Peter Beattie isn’t quite a dickhead and realises offending Queenslanders pisses them off

  222. James J

    Reachtel Forde Primary: LNP 48.3 ALP 39.9

  223. James J

    1097: No, taken today.

  224. marky marky

    Let’ see sale of Telstra, GST, cuts to public service… and an attempt at workchoices…

  225. Sean Tisme

    Rudd: “Lets attack the people of Forde as a “gaggle”! That’ll make em vote for you Beattie!”

    Beattie: “You really are a dickhead”

  226. Meguire Bob

    Sean Tisme

    What is Abbott’s plan ?

  227. Darn

    [Graham Richardson reckons Labor will gain 2 or 3 tops in QLD but will lose in NSW and TAS and maybe a seat in Vic.

    You are probably looking at 78/79 seats for Coalition.]

    As I’ve said before I won’t be too distressed if Abbott falls over the line by a handfull of seats. It will mean that the Senate is safely out of his grasp and he won’t dare risk a double dissolution over the ETS. By 2015, which is the earliest he could call it according to the experts here, I fully expect the Libs to have lost any 2PP ascendancy they may have had anyway, due mainly to their mismanagement of the economy. Abbott’s dreams of a monumental rout of the government enabling him to get away with whatever he wanted, evaporated the moment Julia Gillard went. So even if he wins on September 7 he will struggle in these difficult economic times to avoid seeing it all fall apart before his eyes.

  228. confessions

    Evening all.

    [Reachtel Forde poll: 54-46 2PP to the LNP]

    Is that a poll of voters today?

    How can they just get these polls a) and b) back in and numbers crunched, and c) published all in the space of a few hours?

  229. confessions

    [a) and]

    a) out

  230. lefty e

    Id make a joke about bringing back John Howard, but Abbott already did.

  231. Gary

    I’m not convinced conducting a poll on the day of an announcementwould be b is a good idea. These things need to sink in to all of the electorate. At least a few days later

  232. Gary

    I stuffed that last post. Forget it.

  233. zoidlord

    So was was previous polling for Forde?

    (Usual suspects here).

  234. Meguire Bob

    confessions
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 7:14 pm | PERMALINK
    Evening all.

    Reachtel Forde poll: 54-46 2PP to the LNP

    Is that a poll of voters today?

    How can they just get these polls a) and b) back in and numbers crunched, and c) published all in the space of a few hours?

    —————–

    The pro coalition media’s agenda

    Abbott must be in front

    Labor can not be in front in any pro coalition media poll

    Otherwise the election is over ,

  235. Mod Lib

    [How can they just get these polls a) and b) back in and numbers crunched, and c) published all in the space of a few hours?]

    Its automated

  236. guytaur

    Gary

    Probably a sign yet again voters hate uncertainty. As you say in a few days it will probably be different

  237. lefty e

    Beattie will win Forde. The real question is how many other seats he helps pull.

  238. pithicus

    whats with these Reachtel polls. Tassie disaster now Forde.
    I am slowly starting to become one of the pollster conspiritorial theorists.

  239. marky marky

    This election is not over yet, i still Labor will win. This has been a shoddy week for Labor Rudd should stop the Murdoch bashing and focus on the Libs policies.
    Forget about Murdoch and his papers what is required is a grassroots campaign of doorknocking and leaflets highlighting the good things Labor has done and the bad policies of the Libs… People will sit down before they vote and compare and people this… This is how they can win. The last week is the crucial week and this is when it must get its act together and go for it.

  240. Diogenes

    Beattie can get lots of press to change people’s votes which might not necessarily be in his favour but it’s much too early to write him off.

  241. lefty e

    Its only been 10 minutes since Beattie, Pithicus.

    The reachtel in Forde is worthless.

  242. Meguire Bob

    The coalition supporters need something to be kept interested in the election

    Even Sean Tisme and Mod LIB

    Gets the feeling with Abbott , coalition remains on the opposition benches

  243. guytaur

    I wonder did the Daily Telegraph get copyright permission for their Hogans Heroes front page?

  244. ruawake

    The Forde primaries of the ALP plus LNP at ~88% look hugely suss to me. 2010 it was ~81% .

  245. my say

    ruwake

    what’s your thoughts on peter beattie coming back as a bystander from the south seems good to me

    must say he looked good lost a bit of weight from what I remember and look very positive and ready to go
    made a good impression standing there with kev.

    bit of cynical talk at the other blog so I thought I may be wrong with what I thought

    any other qlder like to offer their thoughts

    not liberals as we know what they think

  246. confessions

    [I’m not convinced conducting a poll on the day of an announcementwould be b is a good idea. These things need to sink in to all of the electorate. At least a few days later]

    I agree.

    It’s like those vox pops the ABC was running in Forde for the World at Noon today. Let’s do it once people know the change has happened.

  247. Mod Lib

    [Beattie will win Forde. The real question is how many other seats he helps pull.]

    Well, the analyses of pathways to an ALP narrow win have them winning 6+ seats in Qld.

    The second easiest is Forde, yet there is a swing AGAINST the ALP in this poll and they would lose it.

    If they are losing one of the easiest seats for them to win, its not a good sign for a 6+ gain!

    This is what I meant about the fact that I cant wait for the marginal polling :devil:

  248. mikehilliard

    Does anyone know if there is a live stream link to the 7.30 Report sames as News 24 so I can watch it on the computer. Kids holding TV hostage.

  249. Gary

    This is the same poll that has Abbott ahead of Rudd, just, as preferred PM. Are there any other polls that have this result.

  250. confessions

    [Its automated]

    Yes, I forgot about that.

    The first time most voters would’ve heard about Beattie running for a federal seat would’ve been when they were driving home from work, checking their Facebook timeline, or turning on the evening news.

  251. lefty e

    [This is the same poll that has Abbott ahead of Rudd, just, as preferred PM.]

    Yes. The national reachtel figures on 2PP looked quite believable, but on PPM looked way out of the pack.

  252. marky marky

    Forget polls folks Labor appartchiks need to get out and talk to people.

  253. Meguire Bob

    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 7:19 pm | PERMALINK
    I wonder did the Daily Telegraph get copyright permission for their Hogans Heroes front page?

    —————

    Im not sure who produced the tv show

    But y write to the copyright holder and give them the link to the telegraph 🙂

  254. lefty e

    That said, Id be very happy to see some actual marginal polling QLD.

    I dont believe either the LNP or ALP sources on “internal polls”

  255. Meguire Bob

    Gary
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 7:21 pm | PERMALINK
    This is the same poll that has Abbott ahead of Rudd, just, as preferred PM. Are there any other polls that have this result.

    ———-
    Yes the media’s agenda

    Abbott must be in front

  256. my say

    and just who would be home after 2 pm

    hard of hearing people and others,

    and some would say what are they talking about beattie is not the member

    every one does not have their tv on or radio

    show u how desperate the lnp

    did they ask for this poll

    mr bowe should know question if not he should find out

  257. Meguire Bob

    Mod Lib
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 7:20 pm | PERMALINK

    The second easiest is Forde, yet there is a swing AGAINST the ALP in this poll and they would lose it.

    ————–

    Doesnt the lnp hold it ?

  258. confessions

    Ch10 news story re the weather was eerily like a Prof Fiona Stanley favourite conference presentation for those who have ever seen her go-to powerpoint slide on childrens development.

    A family of black swans were filmed crossing the road in Applecross today and the baby cygnets got caught in a run-off of water in the gutter and were swept into a drain. Only two were left out of about six!

    Fiona uses a similar slide only with ducks crossing the road and mum crosses a grate with ducklings in tow who all fall through the grate and are lost.

    I think the person filming the cygnets managed to get them out of the drain – I hope so anyways!

  259. Mithrandir

    Folks, its a ReachTel poll. What did anyone expect?

  260. guytaur

    “@StephenLongABC: Youth unemployment rate in Greece is an indictment of EU/IMF austerity policies. Generation lost.”

    “@StephenLongABC: OMG. Terrible. “@SebHenbest: “@AlbertoNardelli: #Greece unemployment rate: 27.6%, 31.6% women, youth 64.9%. 1.4m unemployed, 3.3m inactive”””

  261. confessions

    [This is what I meant about the fact that I cant wait for the marginal polling]

    I’d love to see polling in Brisbane.

  262. my say

    reachtel

    what a waste of money that was as some one else pointed

    out most qlders would not even know till they got home from work
    \
    it thinks polls are done on purpose as anti moral thingo

  263. ruawake

    my say

    Beattie has come back from a job at a prestigious US University to win. He will win in a canter.

    As the Pew research centre found the cheaper and quicker the method the less reliable the result.

    This is why they use a 5 day period for polling.

    Tonights ReachTel is rubbish revenue raising.

  264. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: No Grandstand tonight, watch 7.30 on #ABCNews24 instead. New ALP candidate for Forde Peter Beattie joins @leighsales 7.30pm AEST #ausvotes”

  265. Meguire Bob

    Reachtel poll was commissoned by B.Joyce 🙂

  266. New2This

    What does a hard working dis-endorsed labor candidate get for being rat fcked by Kev…

  267. my say

    reach tell should be banned here

    as I said I could not hear what the computer was saying

    and pressing buttons then the questions are being fired and you still haven’t pressed the first button

    then I hung up after screaming
    dam computer

  268. confessions

    [Forget polls folks Labor appartchiks need to get out and talk to people.]

    FWIW in my travels and discussions with people about things, you’d be lucky to find anyone who even cares about the election.

    Not even the prospect of the seat actually changing hands again (only the second time in its history!) is enough to get people excited about the campaign.

  269. my say

    geez he is a great media tart hope he gets stuck in to her

    the

  270. zoidlord

    @New2This/1149

    Interesting, Abbott done this in NT and in VIC.

    You didn’t whinge about it then.

    Or called them rat fcked…

  271. FarQU

    [How? Ask Amazon nicely?]

    Pass a fucking law making it illegal to sell goods in Australia without a GST. The same law Australian retailers have to operate under. Let’s call it Government Geoblocking.

  272. Compact Crank

    Will Beattie apologise for tonight’s Forde ReachTel Poll?

  273. my say

    must be a funny lot in wa then
    \
    its certainly topic of conversation here

    but then we where voted this week the second most friendly place in the world
    by a travel mag

  274. lefty e

    My gut feeling at this stage:

    – ALP is about 1.5% off the pace, under where it needs to be to win.
    – the electorate is however not settled on a result, as it was 6 weeks ago.
    – The gap can be closed, but it will take clever campaigning
    – The senate is safe, unlikely to change a great deal on current configuration
    – Either Rudd or Abbott can still screw the pooch from here
    – Rudd needs to make up ground: but several big issues favour him (the interest rates cut, economy, NBN)
    – Abbott needs to defend ground: the media and advertising budgets favours him, along with the generalised background theme of ‘ALP instability’
    – Above all, Abbott’s unpopularity is still keeping the ALP in a race they should never have been this competitive in.
    – This weekends polling will be much more telling than what has come before.

  275. mikehilliard

    CAN YOU GET THE 7.30 REPORT LIVE STREAMING IF YES WHAT IS THE LINK IF NO SORRY I WASTED YOUR TIME.

  276. guytaur

    mike

    Its on 24 tonight

  277. poroti

    Mein gott in himmel ! Mathias Cormann has hired Geert Wilders hair stylist,

  278. Mod Lib

    Excellent: lets have more reminders of the ALP corruption in Qld to go with the ALP corruption in NSW.

    Things are going swimmingly :devil:

  279. my say

    lefty e

    [people cannot stand abbott

    and what did he offer us today 250 dollars a fort

    to employees who employ someone who has been out of work for 6 months

    what an insult says there is more coming
    he came all this way to say that why

  280. my say

    William the day is not over yet

    sorry its =not good enough lurkers come after dinner

    to read and they nothing of the day

    o by the way your mate pvo is quite

  281. Mod Lib

    [Doesnt the lnp hold it ?]

    The LNP hold it and the ALP need to win seats like Forde, plus 4 or 5 other seats which are much harder to win.

  282. Miranda Boltt

    Good evening people.

    On Beattie: The only thing this shows is how desparate Labor have now becoming. They know they have no chance of winning without picking up seats in Qld, and there is every sign that they are going BACKWARDS with a swing AGAINST them, even with Krudd restored as Labor. There is a swing of 4% + to the LNP in Griffith and a 2% + swing to the LNP in Forde with Beattie. They will be lucky to hold onto Moreton, Rankin and Lilley let alone make any gains. And they will lose seats, lots of them, in the rest of the country. We’re still looking at like a 12% swing in Tasmania.

    On the unemployment rate: There has been no change to the unemployment rate because more people are leaving the prospective workforce. The real unemployment and underemployment rate is closer to 25-30%.

    On Albanezzzzze: A deputy prime minister who sleeps in and misses an appointment is NOT a good look.

    Face it Centre-Left of this country: you’re STUFFED!!!!!

  283. New2This

    Some of us have to work My Say… That’s why we come online after dinner.

  284. Miranda Boltt

    Good evening people.

    On Beattie: The only thing this shows is how desparate Labor have now becoming. They know they have no chance of winning without picking up seats in Qld, and there is every sign that they are going BACKWARDS with a swing AGAINST them, even with Krudd restored as Labor. There is a swing of 4% + to the LNP in Griffith and a 2% + swing to the LNP in Forde with Beattie. They will be lucky to hold onto Moreton, Rankin and Lilley let alone make any gains. And they will lose seats, lots of them, in the rest of the country. We’re still looking at like a 12% swing in Tasmania.

    On the unemployment rate: There has been no change to the unemployment rate because more people are leaving the prospective workforce. The real unemployment and underemployment rate is closer to 25-30%.

    On Albanezzzzze: A deputy prime minister who sleeps in and misses an appointment is NOT a good look.

    Face it Centre-Left of this country: you’re STUFFED!!!!!

  285. ShowsOn

    [The LNP hold it and the ALP need to win seats like Forde, plus 4 or 5 other seats which are much harder to win.]
    Mrs D, why are you assuming the swings in states will be uniform?

    Struggling with numbers again, Mrs D?

  286. Darn

    I found Abbott’s comment that Rudd should be fearful of Beattie interesting. It sounded to me like he was conceding that Beattie is going to win. How else could Beattie be a threat to Rudd other than by winning a seat in the parliament?.

  287. jenauthor

    [Does anyone know if there is a live stream link to the 7.30 Report sames as News 24 so I can watch it on the computer. Kids holding TV hostage.]

    You got NBN? NO? Good luck then 😆

  288. Rex Douglas

    730 has reached new lows with a completely misleading and factually wrong report on the Essendon scandal.
    Firstly, Dean Robinson (eventually) resigned and wasn’t sacked as stated.
    Secondly, the ASADA report handed down last week was an INTERIM report and not a final report as alluded to.

    Following on from last nights unintelligible interview with Rudd thanks to interruptions an talking over each other, the program is unwatchable.