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Federal Election 2013

Aug 8, 2013

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With 30 days to go:

• Labor has resolved its preselection difficulty in Dobell by recruiting Emma McBride, a former Wyong councillor and head of pharmacy at Wyong Hospital. McBride is the daughter of Grant McBride, who held the local state electorate of The Entrance from 1992 to 2011. She had initially been a candidate for the original preselection process which had lately hit a brick wall with the non-ratification of Trevor Drake’s endorsement, but announced her withdrawal in May. It evidently took some strong persuasion by party administration to get her back on board.

• Centrebet has hiked the payout on a Labor victory from $4 to $4.80, with the Coalition in from $1.25 to $1.18, and there is now $4.80 to be had on a Labor win from Betfair against $1.26 for the Coalition. Sportsbet and Tom Waterhouse continue to offer $4 on Labor. Sportsbet has lengthened Labor’s odds in Petrie, Moreton and Parramatta but shortened them in Dobell, presumably on the back of McBride’s endorsement. Labor is now paying $2.50 in Dobell and the Coalition $1.50, compared with $3.50 and $1.25 at the start of the week.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1172 comments

1,172 thoughts on “Highlights of day three

  1. [Forget polls folks Labor appartchiks need to get out and talk to people.]

    FWIW in my travels and discussions with people about things, you’d be lucky to find anyone who even cares about the election.

    Not even the prospect of the seat actually changing hands again (only the second time in its history!) is enough to get people excited about the campaign.

  2. [How? Ask Amazon nicely?]

    Pass a fucking law making it illegal to sell goods in Australia without a GST. The same law Australian retailers have to operate under. Let’s call it Government Geoblocking.

  3. must be a funny lot in wa then
    \
    its certainly topic of conversation here

    but then we where voted this week the second most friendly place in the world
    by a travel mag

  4. My gut feeling at this stage:

    – ALP is about 1.5% off the pace, under where it needs to be to win.
    – the electorate is however not settled on a result, as it was 6 weeks ago.
    – The gap can be closed, but it will take clever campaigning
    – The senate is safe, unlikely to change a great deal on current configuration
    – Either Rudd or Abbott can still screw the pooch from here
    – Rudd needs to make up ground: but several big issues favour him (the interest rates cut, economy, NBN)
    – Abbott needs to defend ground: the media and advertising budgets favours him, along with the generalised background theme of ‘ALP instability’
    – Above all, Abbott’s unpopularity is still keeping the ALP in a race they should never have been this competitive in.
    – This weekends polling will be much more telling than what has come before.

  5. Excellent: lets have more reminders of the ALP corruption in Qld to go with the ALP corruption in NSW.

    Things are going swimmingly :devil:

  6. lefty e

    [people cannot stand abbott

    and what did he offer us today 250 dollars a fort

    to employees who employ someone who has been out of work for 6 months

    what an insult says there is more coming
    he came all this way to say that why

  7. William the day is not over yet

    sorry its =not good enough lurkers come after dinner

    to read and they nothing of the day

    o by the way your mate pvo is quite

  8. [Doesnt the lnp hold it ?]

    The LNP hold it and the ALP need to win seats like Forde, plus 4 or 5 other seats which are much harder to win.

  9. Good evening people.

    On Beattie: The only thing this shows is how desparate Labor have now becoming. They know they have no chance of winning without picking up seats in Qld, and there is every sign that they are going BACKWARDS with a swing AGAINST them, even with Krudd restored as Labor. There is a swing of 4% + to the LNP in Griffith and a 2% + swing to the LNP in Forde with Beattie. They will be lucky to hold onto Moreton, Rankin and Lilley let alone make any gains. And they will lose seats, lots of them, in the rest of the country. We’re still looking at like a 12% swing in Tasmania.

    On the unemployment rate: There has been no change to the unemployment rate because more people are leaving the prospective workforce. The real unemployment and underemployment rate is closer to 25-30%.

    On Albanezzzzze: A deputy prime minister who sleeps in and misses an appointment is NOT a good look.

    Face it Centre-Left of this country: you’re STUFFED!!!!!

  10. Good evening people.

    On Beattie: The only thing this shows is how desparate Labor have now becoming. They know they have no chance of winning without picking up seats in Qld, and there is every sign that they are going BACKWARDS with a swing AGAINST them, even with Krudd restored as Labor. There is a swing of 4% + to the LNP in Griffith and a 2% + swing to the LNP in Forde with Beattie. They will be lucky to hold onto Moreton, Rankin and Lilley let alone make any gains. And they will lose seats, lots of them, in the rest of the country. We’re still looking at like a 12% swing in Tasmania.

    On the unemployment rate: There has been no change to the unemployment rate because more people are leaving the prospective workforce. The real unemployment and underemployment rate is closer to 25-30%.

    On Albanezzzzze: A deputy prime minister who sleeps in and misses an appointment is NOT a good look.

    Face it Centre-Left of this country: you’re STUFFED!!!!!

  11. [The LNP hold it and the ALP need to win seats like Forde, plus 4 or 5 other seats which are much harder to win.]
    Mrs D, why are you assuming the swings in states will be uniform?

    Struggling with numbers again, Mrs D?

  12. I found Abbott’s comment that Rudd should be fearful of Beattie interesting. It sounded to me like he was conceding that Beattie is going to win. How else could Beattie be a threat to Rudd other than by winning a seat in the parliament?.

  13. [Does anyone know if there is a live stream link to the 7.30 Report sames as News 24 so I can watch it on the computer. Kids holding TV hostage.]

    You got NBN? NO? Good luck then 😆

  14. 730 has reached new lows with a completely misleading and factually wrong report on the Essendon scandal.
    Firstly, Dean Robinson (eventually) resigned and wasn’t sacked as stated.
    Secondly, the ASADA report handed down last week was an INTERIM report and not a final report as alluded to.

    Following on from last nights unintelligible interview with Rudd thanks to interruptions an talking over each other, the program is unwatchable.