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Federal Election 2013

Aug 8, 2013

ReachTEL: 54-46 to LNP in Forde

It's still early days in the life of Peter Beattie's bid for federal parliament, but a ReachTEL poll suggests he is taking on a considerable challenge in contesting the marginal LNP seat of Forde.

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A snap ReachTEL automated phone poll of Forde, conducted immediately after today’s big news, suggests Peter Beattie has his work cut out for him in overcoming the 1.6% Liberal National Party margin in the southern Brisbane fringe seat. The poll has LNP member Bert van Manen leading Beattie by 48.3% to 39.9% on the primary vote, and by 54-46 on two-party preferred. The sample size on the poll is 725.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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492 comments

492 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to LNP in Forde

  1. sean dear there will be NO newspapers with in 18 months I would say

    and we do , don’t you know about all the amazing sights on the internet no wonder you know nothing about what the liberals are really like u need to travel to

    get out and about our son has been to 26 countries
    u find out how the other half live and you would see how horrible the uk has become the way they treat the poor there

    abbott would be worse

  2. Tomorrows Daily Tel edition looks all homely and non partisan ….just the usual drivel.

    Hmmm….which to my mind suggests they could find absolutely nothing to goad the ALP on today.

  3. [Hmmm….which to my mind suggests they could find absolutely nothing to goad the ALP on today.]

    Or their circulation took a hit from their partisan rubbish earlier this week.

  4. My say yes love Restoration Man and that SBS show on the origins of modern medicine and modern drugs. So many lessons from history are ignored in the pursuit of profit.

  5. At least Daily Tele’s front covers are memorable.

    Can you remember any front page of any newspaper in say the last 10 years with a cover worth framing?

  6. I am shocked at the comment that we needed a male to face TA, I for one was quite capable in a male dominated profession
    (ie kept my job :grin:}, at that time, Had nothing to do with gender was straight bias by Ole Rupe etc and his minions turned people I only hope those sort of comments will cease!

  7. [I am shocked at the comment that we needed a male to face TA]
    Only because Australia is not ready for a female prime minister.

    Australia must be one of the most conservative nations on Earth – in the sense that a woman in charge is just not “right”.

    Kevvie and the MSM were a great help as well.

  8. TLBD 464
    Spot on re your last paragraph
    I think if given a fair chance Australia is ready for a female PM, but just wonder if there will be another in my lifetime!

  9. Sean T my rather laboured point, pardon the pun, is that News Ltd’s front page propaganda this week is just that. Goebells would give News Ltds coverage this week a resounding tick.

  10. [I think if given a fair chance Australia is ready for a female PM, but just wonder if there will be another in my lifetime!]

    After what was done Gillard it will be a loooong time before Labor elects another female leader. Of course right-wing women don’t get the same treatment. But apart from from J Bishop I can’t see any Liberal women MPs with the remotest leadership prospects. I don’t think the next female PM is in parliament yet.

  11. Psephos,

    Ged Kearney has been touted. She has a certain homeliness about her that might not scare the horses.

    Any thoughts?

  12. I’ve just watched that Palistinian/Armenian hypocrite who calls himself Hockey standing before a congregation in a Mosque declaring how proud he is of his Palistinian roots.

    If he is that proud to be connected with his heritage I would have thought the first step would have been to use his correct Armenian name, long forsaken by his “proud” Arab family, Hokeidonian.

  13. Psephos and Rossmore
    Which was exactly what I was saying, not in foreseeable future and why would they seeing the treatment meted out to JG!

  14. I think the attacks about what Joe Hockey decides to call himself are pretty inane. It would be one thing if it were Hockey himself who made the change for purely political reasons and that it had all been covered up.

    Shall we take aim at all those hypocritical Asian Australians who use western names?

  15. The treatment of Julia Gillard in her terms as Prime Minister is a shameful indictment on Australia, and everyone involved in her stalking and vilification should hang their heads in shame. Some, including a few who are dwellers on this blog sadly, should be taken into the town square to be publicly tar’n feathered.

    How any decent human being could watch that bullying happening and say nothing, or applaud it, or join in, is beyond me.

    It was disgusting, pathetic and humiliating to see Australians descend to such depths of depravity.

    And to think, we went to Afghanistan to teach Afghans how to properly treat women.

  16. mari,
    Yes, they would. But sadly, it is to be expected of people with all the sophistication of a rat turd in the punch-bowl.

  17. Mari,
    I had to leave my wedding ring set at home for woodworking class. (power tools) I spent all day feeling for it on my finger. I found removing it quite distressing. 🙁

  18. Puff
    I think that is what upsets me, we are supposed to be a sophisticated nation and teaching? people like in Afganishtan how to treat women especially and the way the first female PM here was treated was beyond belief

    Yes I am not surprised re wedding ring, I can’t even get mine off thank heavens, my knuckles seem to have grown, for which I am truly grateful for. Bet you were pleased you got it back to where it belongs

  19. mari,
    Yers I was, and the only reason I left it home was because it might get damaged, not that my finger might get broken!

  20. FWIW I think that history will be kind to PMJG. Her championing of the Gonski school reforms, the NDIS, management of the minority government – and her enduring grace and toughness under relentless pressure will rank higher in the long term than her contemporary political failings.

    I also suspect that history will not be terribly kind to the various powers that long sought to dance on her political grave.

  21. My reading of the play so far is that Rudd is not just content to save the furniture, but is intent on winning.

    The mini budget probably cost him 1% but is out of the way before most of the swinging voters have realised that they may have to go and vote next month.

    Both sides will have some tricks up their sleeves. PMKR obviously spent some of his backbench time wargaming a few moves if he was to get the chance again. I bet we havent seen the last of these yet. The Libs will also have held back a few moves. It may boil down to who is most assertive and who has picked the moods of the various critical constituencies.

  22. Was too busy today to post re: betting versus polling. My recollection is that 2010 was not a good betting election for individual seats as the incumbent was generally regarded as most likely to win and effectively did so in the end albeit through political DRS with Gillard out-bargaining Abbott.

    This election seems a little more similiar to 2007 – ie that there will be more seats won at more decent betting prices i.e. $1.85 plus.

    Three or four specific seat polls conducted by local newspapers for example may contain the odd rogue, but seemed in 2007 to be a much better overall indicator than the betting was – with a lot of the seats that swung in that election.

    I am not advocating betting on the election. Just making the observation that at least in 2007 the seat polls – especially when there ended up several of them through the campaign, proved pretty accurate compared to the betting prices for the seats.

    I don’t think that the betting prices for the marginals are a very good guide this far out from the election. At this stage of the game, there has been little data available on individual seats.

  23. Shows On (way back at #20)

    It’s probably the first time even the electors of Forde have heard of Bert van Manen (my local member). He has been all but invisible for most of his tenure as member for this electorate.

    At least the previous Liberal member, who retired at the 2007 election and, sadly, whose name escapes me, was high profile, intelligent, helpful and gracious. The current one has all the grace of a prize boor (no, not bore, although he is that as well!)

    I’m slightly uncomfortable with this parachuting in of Beattie. “We bought a house here this morning” or some such comment I saw on TV lat night – which shows a real commitment to the electorate.

    What happens to the poor schmuck who probably worked his guts out to be preselected? Not to mention the embarrassingly large posters along the freeway which will give plenty of ammo to the opposition, as if they didn’t have enough lies to spread already. This one will at least be based on fact.

    What in hell has Australian politics in general become? I’m a committed Labor voter, so Beattie will be getting my vote, but one of the first things Rudd Mark 1 should have done was to ban foreign ownership of Australian media – many countries, even the mighty US of A does this – then we wouldn’t be constantly bombarded by the crap from the Murdoch kingmaker and would get, hopefully, a balanced view to allow the electorate to make up it’s own mind.

    His headline in the Telegraph the other day was little short of meddling in another country’s affairs. And as for the sleazebag he has brought out to “manage” his press, words fail me! Urinating in the sink? and proud of it – I ask you! What sort of scum is that?

    Probably he and Abbott can show each other what’s really in their budgie smugglers. Now I’m going to be sick!