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Federal Election 2013

Aug 8, 2013

ReachTEL: 54-46 to LNP in Forde

It's still early days in the life of Peter Beattie's bid for federal parliament, but a ReachTEL poll suggests he is taking on a considerable challenge in contesting the marginal LNP seat of Forde.

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A snap ReachTEL automated phone poll of Forde, conducted immediately after today’s big news, suggests Peter Beattie has his work cut out for him in overcoming the 1.6% Liberal National Party margin in the southern Brisbane fringe seat. The poll has LNP member Bert van Manen leading Beattie by 48.3% to 39.9% on the primary vote, and by 54-46 on two-party preferred. The sample size on the poll is 725.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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492 comments

492 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to LNP in Forde

  1. zoidlord

    What was it previously?

  2. This little black duck

    Mein Gott, two new posts in one day!

  3. lefty e

    Worthless poll. Beattie announces this morning, results by 7pm? Please.

    Peter Beattie will be the next member for the seat of Forde.

  4. mikehilliard

    Thanks guytaur 🙂

  5. lefty e

    You can note that down, and quote it to me later.

    Provided you’re prepared to state otherwise now, that is 🙂

  6. my say

    cannot stand abbott

    and what did he offer us today 250 dollars a fort

    to employees who employ someone who has been out of work for 6 months

    what an insult says there is more coming
    he came all this way to say that why
    1164 my say
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 7:37 pm | Permalink
    William the day is not over yet

    sorry its =not good enough lurkers come after dinner

    to read and they nothing of the day
    gee
    your mate pvo is quite has he left the country

    so do u place this much importance on this companies polling do u that u have a new page for this one seat

    come on

  7. my say

    cannot stand abbott

    and what did he offer us today 250 dollars a fort

    to employees who employ someone who has been out of work for 6 months

    what an insult says there is more coming
    he came all this way to say that why
    1164 my say
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 7:37 pm | Permalink
    William the day is not over yet

    sorry its =not good enough lurkers come after dinner

    to read and they nothing of the day
    gee
    your mate pvo is quite has he left the country

    so do u place this much importance on this companies polling do u that u have a new page for this one seat

    come on

  8. Mod Lib

    In 2010 it was 51.6 to 48.4 to the LNP

    The primaries were
    LNP 44.1%
    ALP 37.4%
    Green 12.2%

  9. confessions

    The transcript of the Bert van Manen media conference is here:
    http://www.bertvanmanen.com.au/pages/peter-beattie-candidacy-announcement-.php

    I tried getting the full transcript, but apparently the file can’t be found, presumably because today’s Liberal party speak in truncated fashion.

  10. my say

    yes William as this is the peoples election don’t u think its a good idea to let us have a bit of le way

    why on earth would u have new page for reachtel

    do tell

  11. confessions

    [Beattie announces this morning, results by 7pm?]

    His press conference was at lunchtime WA time, so 2.30ish in Qld. Not morning.

  12. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/8

    Not in 2010, pre-Beatie.

  13. ruawake

    Everyones primaries have gone up.

  14. Miranda Boltt

    Good evening people.

    On Beattie: The only thing this shows is how desparate Labor have now becoming. They know they have no chance of winning without picking up seats in Qld, and there is every sign that they are going BACKWARDS with a swing AGAINST them, even with Krudd restored as Labor. There is a swing of 4% + to the LNP in Griffith and a 2% + swing to the LNP in Forde with Beattie. They will be lucky to hold onto Moreton, Rankin and Lilley let alone make any gains. And they will lose seats, lots of them, in the rest of the country. We’re still looking at like a 12% swing in Tasmania.

    On the unemployment rate: There has been no change to the unemployment rate because more people are leaving the prospective workforce. The real unemployment and underemployment rate is closer to 25-30%.

    On Albanezzzzze: A deputy prime minister who sleeps in and misses an appointment is NOT a good look.

    Face it Centre-Left of this country: you’re STUFFED!!!!!

  15. my say

    William it hard work helping for an election there is so many tweets and posts on the previous thread

    that people have right to read and what do u do

    how many links do u provide

  16. zoidlord

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    ReachTEL pulled a 725 sample poll in Forde in well under 30 minutes. The research world has changed, and people don’t realise it yet

    Sounds like a dodgy poll by Possum.

  17. Mod Lib

    [ruawake
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 7:42 pm | PERMALINK
    Everyones primaries have gone up.]

    Exactly as you would expect with high profile candidates

  18. zoidlord

    By Reachtel I mean.

  19. ShowsOn

    Today was the first time I had heard of Bert van Manen.

  20. confessions

    Just saw an updated Abbott pamphlet advert, this time featuring an Asian woman.

    A response to Hockey’s gaffe about their candidate in Rankin???

  21. This little black duck

    There goes the neighbourhood!

  22. ruawake

    The Courier Mail are takin the piss as well. The “poll” had undecided at 43%, the News Ltd turd remover forgot to mention it.

    [The local poll – of just over 200 voters – suggests Mr Brough is heading for an easy victory.

    He claimed 37. 3 per cent of the vote, followed by the ALP candidate Bill Gissane with 13.9 per cent.

    Clive Palmer’s hand-picked candidate for Fisher, Bill Schloch, polled only marginally better than Mr Slipper, with 1.4 per cent.]
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/special-features/disgraced-former-speaker-peter-slipper-faces-electoral-defeat/story-fnho52jo-1226693766797?from=public_rss

  23. Miranda Boltt

    Either way this shows that Labor was not going to win Forde and hence any other seats in Queensland off the LNP.

  24. poroti

    Miranda Boltt

    Please use your full name , Miranda Akerman Boltt

  25. Tom Hawkins

    [whats with these Reachtel polls. Tassie disaster now Forde.
    I am slowly starting to become one of the pollster conspiritorial theorists.]

    Simple answer:

    Don’t trust Reachtel’s rushed polling.

  26. confessions

    [Sounds like a dodgy poll by Possum.]

    I see it as Poss simply pointing out that you no longer need to assemble teams of humans in a call centre to physically ring people in order to poll voters.

  27. shellbell

    That Beattie would be parachuting was known by 9am

  28. dave

    Grrr. Beattie lose the “LOOK” preface in your replies.

    Very irritating.

  29. shellbell

    Give Bob Ellis the courier mail poll. He has a conversion tool which will have Slipper winning Fisher like he had Thomson leading in Dobell.

  30. poroti

    This little black duck

    Yes, I thought I detected the aroma of putrescine.

  31. ShowsOn

    [I see it as Poss simply pointing out that you no longer need to assemble teams of humans in a call centre to physically ring people in order to poll voters.]
    725 numbers dialled in under 30 minutes means at best 2.48 seconds per call.

    Does that seem right to you?

  32. New2This

    Good night My Say…

  33. mikehilliard

    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

    By Reachtel I mean.

    Phew, for a second I thought you’d crossed to the dark side.

  34. guytaur

    “@tom_watson: @latikambourke sorely tempted to come out. It seems Mr Murdoch hasn’t learnt much from the Leveson inquiry.”

  35. Tom Hawkins

    [That Beattie would be parachuting was known by 9am]

    Who would have known that? Those who sit by a computer all day surfing the Net? Those who have the radio on all day?

    That is but a small demographic.

  36. Mod Lib

    [ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 7:48 pm | PERMALINK
    I see it as Poss simply pointing out that you no longer need to assemble teams of humans in a call centre to physically ring people in order to poll voters.

    725 numbers dialled in under 30 minutes means at best 2.48 seconds per call.

    Does that seem right to you?]

    I wonder whether they have more than one phone ShowsOn??????

    LOL 🙂

  37. Tom Hawkins

    [“@tom_watson: @latikambourke sorely tempted to come out. It seems Mr Murdoch hasn’t learnt much from the Leveson inquiry.”]

    That would be good. He could repeat his observation that the Murdoch family are are a bunch of crims.

  38. pithicus

    I assume reachtel polling in tasmania was not rushed.
    I want to see some more polling in tassie from other companies before I write tassie off.

  39. lefty e

    My gut feeling at this stage:

    – ALP is about 1.5% off the pace, under where it needs to be to win.
    – the electorate is however not settled on a result, as it was 6 weeks ago.
    – The gap can be closed, but it will take clever campaigning
    – The senate is safe, unlikely to change a great deal on current configuration
    – Either Rudd or Abbott can still screw the pooch from here
    – Rudd needs to make up ground: but several big issues favour him (the interest rates cut, economy, NBN)
    – Abbott needs to defend ground: the media and advertising budgets favours him, along with the generalised background theme of ‘ALP instability’
    – Above all, Abbott’s unpopularity is still keeping the ALP in a race they should never have been this competitive in.
    – This weekends polling will be much more telling than what has come before.

  40. confessions

    [Does that seem right to you?]

    I’m sure there would be more than just one phone.

  41. ruawake

    Most people would know that Teflon was standing for Forde in the 7 News, oh wait a sec. 🙂

  42. Lady Miranda Ann Caulfeild Ackermann-Boltt

    There would be plenty of phones. Just face it you are BONED.

  43. confessions

    [Who would have known that? Those who sit by a computer all day surfing the Net? Those who have the radio on all day?

    That is but a small demographic.]

    On Monday at work only 2 people in my team knew an election had been called, and one of those knew because she’d read my Facebook post.

    Disengaged voters are a strange lot. 🙂

  44. Sean Tisme

    Uno what I love… southerners who think they understand Queensland.

    You don’t.

    Though I’d say the real number is closer to 51% to LNP at this point.

  45. Lady Miranda Ann Caulfeild Ackermann-Boltt

    Ruawake: Teflon? More like the texture of off-tofu these days. You dried up the state and left your mess to your deputy Anna Blight, or rather the people of Queensland, to clean up. The people of Forde have learnt!

  46. William Bowe

    [Uno what I love… southerners who think they understand Queensland.]

    I’ve noticed though that you seem to be okay with northerners who think they understand Tasmania.

  47. New2This

    I note the NBN is about 250 000 premises off the pace…

  48. zoidlord

    @Lady Miranda Ann Caulfeild Ackermann-Boltt/46

    Newman still left in the state, he’s been in the job for what? 1-2 years, he hasn’t fixed anything.

    His WA counterpart is also using debt to fix his own problems.