tip off

Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition; Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition in Queensland

The first Nielsen result of the campaign propels the BludgerTrack poll aggregate another notch further in the Coalition’s direction, while a Galaxy poll from Queensland confirms the evaporation there of a Ruddstoration boost which presumably sent Labor to Peter Beattie’s door.

GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen, which has unusually conducted its poll from Tuesday to Thursday for publication at the start of the weekend (UPDATE: Ghost indicates that this is its normal practice during election campaigns), shows the Coalition with a lead of 52-48 after a 50-50 result in the previous poll of four weeks ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 37% and the Coalition up two to 46%, with the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings are down, though not quite to the same degree as in Newspoll: his approval is down three to 48% with disapproval up four to 47%. Tony Abbott on the other hand scores his best personal results from Nielsen since July 2011, his approval up four to 45% and disapproval down four to 52%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 55-41 to 50-42. The poll had Nielsen’s usual large sample of 1400. Full results including state breakdowns here.

Also through this evening is a Galaxy poll showing the Coalition with a 56-44 lead in Queensland, compared with 55.1-44.9 at the 2010 election. Annoyingly, the only detail on the primary vote provided in the Courier-Mail is that Labor is on 34%, compared with 33.6% in 2010. We are however provided with the following results from largely uninteresting attitudinal questions: 50% said Rudd had a good or very good understanding of issues that affect Queensland compared with 36%, with the respective poor ratings at 25% and 29%; 10% said they were more likely to vote for Rudd because he was a Queenslander; 35% of respondents over all, and 65% of Labor supporters, said they expected Labor to win. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800 respondents. (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens on 7%, Katter’s Australian Party on 4% and the Palmer United Party on 4%).

The above results have been used to update BludgerTrack, causing it to tick two seats in the Coalition’s direction with gains in Victoria and Queensland. I’m pleased to say that the tracker has done a good job of picking up Labor’s evident deflation in the latter state, with an early brace of projected Labor gains after Kevin Rudd’s return steady evaporating and now putting them very slightly in negative territory. It would not of course have picked up any Peter Beattie dividend for Labor as of yet. Less happily, the projection insists on granting Labor an implausible third seat in Western Australia. While the two most marginal Liberal seats of Hasluck and Swan could well be in the Labor firing line, the model is very likely overestimating their chances in Canning off the back of the boost Labor received there in 2010 from Alannah MacTiernan’s candidacy.

Finally, The Guardian reports on an automated phone poll conducted in Anthony Albanese’s inner-city Sydney electorate of Grayndler by Lonergan Research, who I have not encountered previously but whose work appears well regarded by those who have. It turns in a highly plausible set of numbers with Albanese at 47% on the primary vote (compared with 46.1% in 2010), the Liberals at 28% (up from 24.2%) and the Greens at 22% (down from 25.9%). A 66% two-party preferred vote for Labor is provided in the poll, which presumably means versus the Liberals (the Greens made it to the final count in 2010, leaving Albanese with a margin of 4.2%), although I’m not clear if this is previous-election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It seems respondents were not asked about preferences, so evidently it’s the former). The sample is a hefty 966.

UPDATE: Now we have a ReachTEL poll, conducted today, showing the Coalition leading 53-47. More to follow.

1067
  • 1
    FarQU
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    Oh well, they’re doing better that the Saints.

  • 2
    spur212
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    That’s the budget update impact

    It’s hurt perceptions of the ALP on the economy which is part of what Rudd recovered when he took over

  • 3
    Mick77
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    This is before Beattie effect which will have dragged Labor down another point so we’re at 53-47 to Libs as I predicted when the Rudd rebirth fiasco began.

  • 4
    Rossmore
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:10 pm | Permalink

    ALP obviously have a mountain to climb. No surprise there.

  • 5
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:10 pm | Permalink

    If the Trend is your Friend… Labor is fucked

  • 6
    davidwh
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:10 pm | Permalink

    Zoidlord it seems to confirm the small move back to the Coalition showing up in most other polling. Very interested to see the state break-ups.

  • 7
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

    Need only look at the Liberal states to see what Abbott will do

  • 8
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

    The Nielsen polls were conducted in the middle of the week during the last federal election as well.

  • 9
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:12 pm | Permalink

    This is before Beattie effect which will have dragged Labor down another point so we’re at 53-47 to Libs as I predicted when the Rudd rebirth fiasco began.

    58-42 to the Coalition when you include the “Coalition hack arbitrarily changing the numbers” factor.

  • 10
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    BTW, the Labor hacked who heckled me for lack of evidence that Abbott’s currently the favourite to win. Here’s exhibit A.

  • 11
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    goodbye Rudd…

  • 12
    confessions
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    The Neilsen reflects why Team Abbott haven’t done anything differently since the campaign began as they’ve been doing for the last 3 years.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-09/clarke-will-slow-and-steady-win-the-race/4876696

  • 13
    spur212
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:18 pm | Permalink

    The first Nielsen of the last campaign was 54-46 to Labor … If that gives any perspective (different circumstances of course)

  • 14
    Gary
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    Still only first week.

  • 15
    Mick77
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    Only 28 more days of looking at the happy Vegemite. On the 29th day we vote him out … yippeee, see you then.

  • 16
    Karl
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    “If the Trend is your Friend”
    There is no such thing as a trend or momentum. They are inventions of people trying to sell news.

  • 17
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    There is no such thing as a trend or momentum. They are inventions of people trying to sell news.

    Bullshit

  • 18
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    Trouble. That is all.

  • 19
    Marrickville Mauler
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    who let the trolls out? woof woof woof, Truthy, Mick, Rex (down rex, down!) Boring.

  • 20
    Keyman
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    Hmm. not good but is this within MOE? But long bow to think after 12 years of dumbing down.. then 6 years or peddling butshit that any sanity would pevail. So presto.. see ya to australian society as we know it, it appears. I wish rups mum had lived to see this

  • 21
    New2This
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    Goodbye Rudd…

  • 22
    Gary
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    Mick if Rudd wins you won’t be here.

  • 23
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    Although I find it amusing that Sean is advocating trends now, after rubbishing them just a few weeks ago when they weren’t favouring his political opinions.

  • 24
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    5-8 seats that both liberal/labor sources been saying via internal polling could be true then.

    So most likely marginal seats at play.

  • 25
    Lady Miranda Ann Caulfeild Ackermann-Boltt
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    All you leftie fools who were in denial should realise that you are BONED. Welcome to the second week which corresponds to the stage of ANGER…

  • 26
    Karl
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    “Bullshit”
    I’ll tell you why you’re wrong. For there to be trend, the majority of people would have to pay attention to polls. They don’t.

  • 27
    Gary
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    who let the trolls out? woof woof woof, Truthy, Mick, Rex (down rex, down!) Boring.

    Spot on.

  • 28
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    I’ve never seen someone spontaneously combust.. will be great watching Rudd election night.

    “But everyone f’ing LOVES ME!! What happened!! This is a travesty!”

  • 29
    Mick77
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    Gary

    I’ve diaried the evening of Sat 7th Sep to be here. I’ve got a date with Dave. You wanna make it a threesome?

  • 30
    davidwh
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    It’s only becomes a trend if it continues to move towards the Coalition. At present it is at best a small move back to the Coalition. I doubt Abbott is looking at carpets for the Lodge yet but we can say confidently that the trend back to Labor has ended for now.

  • 31
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    Although I find it amusing that Sean is advocating trends now, after rubbishing them just a few weeks ago when they weren’t favouring his political opinions.

    No my problem with the Labor Trend spotters wasn’t that trends don’t exist, just that Labor supporters seem to pick and choose what week it starts from.

    Example: Last week Labor was on 48% now we are on 50%, omg we are so gonna win!

    While completely ignoring the other 3 years of data that shows Labor is going to lose

  • 32
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    I’ve diaried the evening of Sat 7th Sep to be here. I’ve got a date with Dave.

    Dave’s not here, man.

  • 33
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    Labor’s primary vote has dropped in the last 7 polls.

    Newspoll
    Essential
    Morgan
    Newspoll
    Essential
    Morgan
    Nielsen

    That’s a trend.

  • 34
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    Sorry – that second Newspoll it stayed at 37.

  • 35
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    @GC/33

    Some of those were during the budget week.

  • 36
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    The first Nielsen of the last campaign was 54-46 to Labor … If that gives any perspective (different circumstances of course)

    A valid point. Also, 4 weeks to go. 52-48 is, by no means, insurmountable.

    However, Labor do need to lift its game. This election could run away from them.

  • 37
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    Labor primary at 37 is unwinnable. Needs to be 39 absolute minimum.

  • 38
    Pegasus
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    In Victoria, the preferences of Save the Planet Party, a single issue party focussed on climate change, may be crucial to the final result in Melbourne and Corangamite.
    http://nofibs.com.au/2013/08/09/save-the-planet-party-preferences-may-be-crucial-in-melbourne-and-corangamite-reports-takvera/

    Interview with Save the Planet Party candidate Philip Sutton in Batman:
    http://nofibs.com.au/2013/08/05/saving-the-planet-in-batman-bumpyf-interview/

    Interview with Greens Party candidate Lloyd Davies in Corangamite: http://nofibs.com.au/2013/08/08/the-greens-face-in-corangamite-primmich-reports/

  • 39
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    Zoidlord – ya can’t pick and choose the polls you look at!

    ‘But that was just a bad week’ does not cur it.

    You can’t have a bad week in a 5 week campaign.

  • 40
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    This poll is disappointing.

  • 41
    davidwh
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Glory it’s even worse when you consider the Green primary looks like being a few points Lowe than 2010.

  • 42
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    The state breakdowns here will tell us whether an election victory is possible, or merely a great white hope.

  • 43
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    @GC

    That’s true.

  • 44
    davidwh
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    Sorry my phone keeps correcting my spelling.

  • 45
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    In Victoria, the preferences of Save the Planet Party, a single issue party focussed on climate change, may be crucial to the final result in Melbourne and Corangamite.

    So might anything.

  • 46
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    David – yep – more to the point, a LNP primary of 45+ means we won’t win.

  • 47
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    I’m still locking myself in as 86 seats to the Coalition

  • 48
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 29m

    @alexanderwhite 1400 voters. #Nielsen #auspol

  • 49
    paaptsef
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    you got the stuff WB?

  • 50
    Lady Miranda Ann Caulfeild Ackermann-Boltt
    Posted Friday, August 9, 2013 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    Somewhere between 85 and 95 is realistic

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