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ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49

An automated phone poll conducted today supports the broader polling picture of ongoing drift away from Labor, although a new Galaxy poll is somewhat more hopeful for them.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 up from 52-48 last week, from primary votes of 36.9% for Labor (down 0.6%), 46.9% for the Coalition (up 1.2%) and 8.9 for the Greens (down 0.7%). On the all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47, up from 50.9-49.1 in the poll conducted on Sunday immediately after the election was called.

UPDATE: And now another Galaxy poll, this time national, and slightly better for Labor than other recent results. The Labor primary vote is at 38%, down two on the last national Galaxy result of a fortnight ago, with the Coalition and the Greens each up one to 45% and 10%. On two-party preferred the Coalition leads 51-49, compared with 50-50 last time. Kevin Rudd maintains a handy 47-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, although it’s down from 51-34. There are also questions on the respective leaders’ greatest weaknesses which you can see here. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1002.

1822
  • 1
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:12 pm | Permalink

    From last thread

    Also staying positive not working. Might as well go mongrel starting with reminding people of Abbott’s attack on a person in a wheel chair. If its good enough for Murdoch and Team Abbott.

  • 2
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:14 pm | Permalink

    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:12 pm | PERMALINK
    From last thread

    Also staying positive not working. Might as well go mongrel starting with reminding people of Abbott’s attack on a person in a wheel chair. If its good enough for Murdoch and Team Abbott.

    ——————————————————-

    The governemnt should have done this a while back

    Get the mediaauthoerity to do thier job

    Take licenses away from the media outlets who breach their own code of ethics and the election campaign

  • 3
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    First 53 for Coalition from any pollster since Rudd return. It is ReachTEL though and they have been pretty Coalition-friendly; my aggregate docks them a point. And said aggregate has gone to 51.3.

  • 4
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    Media outles have to let the public know who they are baised too

    Why these media opinion polls should be banned

  • 5
    Andrew
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

    Yes guytaur, can turn it around with steady and positive.

    The only thing that can turn would be a major game changer. Like the Windsor tapes…

  • 6
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

    Did ReachTel really poll on a Saturday only? They may be getting paid but why is anyone taking any notice?

  • 7
    Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

    The trouble the ALP has had over the last 6 years is vehemently arguing diametrically opposing cases:

    1. Carbon pollution greatest moral challenge- lets put it on hold
    2. There is no asylum seeker queue- we need to do this to stop queue jumpers
    3. We completely reject the Pacific Solution- Abbott is blocking us doing a Pacific solution
    4. We need a carbon price of $23- lets have a carbon price of $5
    5. We must get to a surplus, our economic credibility depends on it- we will show our economic credibility by not getting a surplus

    …..so having said for so long how he is sick of negative politics it would seem fitting for Rudd to go out all guns blazing against Abbott!

  • 8
    Andrew
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

    Can’t turn it around

  • 9
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

    I’m not doing an election guide this time (too much work, too many similar projects), but I have updated my Index of House of Representatives Divisions 1901-2013, with enrolments, two-party votes and members for every Division at every election since Federation.
    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/divisions/divisions.shtml

  • 10
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

    Andrew

    Negative works when it is the truth. It fails when it is not.

    Running true negative adverts about Abbott showing his hypocrisy works.

  • 11
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

    I think it’s all Murdoch’s doing, really. And it will only get worse.

  • 12
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:18 pm | Permalink

    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:16 pm | PERMALINK
    Did ReachTel really poll on a Saturday only? T

    ——–

    wouldnt be surprise

    Windsor called them the dodgy brother polling

  • 13
    New2This
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

    Ban opinion polls … Being in the thought police meguire bob. Reprogram them I say..

  • 14
    alias
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

    I have been away for 3 days and largely out of the loop in terms of political events.

    Sometimes this sort of distance is useful to get some perspective, and this is mine:

    Rudd’s chances of victory are significantly slimmer because the economy has turned. No fault of his, or of Labor’s; just happenstance. The jobless rate is heading up, growth is slowing and people are worried. That is an almost impossible hurdle to jump.

    Except for one thing.

    Tony Abbott.

    This is still a potentially freakish election in that Abbott is totally capable of confirming the very widely held suspicions that he is simply unfit to be Australia’s PM. Just one dumb moment in the glare of the election campaign would seal the deal, I believe.

    If Abbott is elected, he’ll be the accidental PM. The prevailing sentiment after the Liberal party vote to elect him (“Oh my God, what have we done?” ) will apply to the country as a whole if he romps home on Sept 7.

    I still think Rudd can pull this out of the bag, with Abbott’s help. It’s going to be tough. It’s going to be a seat by seat strategy, along the lines of Forde. We need several more Forde type masterstrokes to make victory seem more plausible.

    Still, overall I’m trying to reconcile myself to an Abbott PM-ship. At least he appears to have his heart sort of in the right place in relation to Aboriginal matters.

  • 15
    triton
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

    It’s shocking that Abbott leads on PPM, but there’s still a huge difference from Newspoll (Abbott was slightly ahead on the last ReachTEL too). Do they ask the same question?

  • 16
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:21 pm | Permalink

    Now that he’s hit the lead, we can forget all that nonsense about “Australia will never elect Abbott as PM”.

  • 17
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

    WE know Murdoch is campaigning against Labor. We know he gets down and dirty every time. The phone hacking proved it.

    Trying to be positive and taking the high ground just will not work as Labor has already abandoned that ground to the Greens with its AS policy.

    Labor now has to be at least as dirty as it can get away with to match Murdoch. That way Murdoch may back off as damage is done to his candidate Mr Abbott.

  • 18
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

    New2This
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:19 pm | PERMALINK
    Ban opinion polls …
    ———

    the current agenda media polls yes

    Opinion polling companies should be netural, and there should be no media influence

    The opinon polling should be polling all electorates

    1- questions about government and alternative polices

    2- No biased towards any party , the opinion polling is baised to the coalition

    3- No if an election is held now questions , once an election has been called

  • 19
    pithicus
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

    ReachTel seem to produce polls at the drop of a hat.
    ppm results seem a bit out of wack.

  • 20
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

    Rather than pick apart the polls and try to discredit them. Take the attitude of “What do we change to stop this from continuing?”

  • 21
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

    triton
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:20 pm | PERMALINK
    It’s shocking that Abbott leads on PPM, but there’s still a huge difference from Newspoll (Abbott was slightly ahead on the last ReachTEL too). Do they ask the same question?

    ————

    reachtel isnt a poll to worry about

  • 22
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

    Labor has its National Field Day, thousands of volunteers go to events all over the country so ReachTel polls.

  • 23
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

    Carey Moore
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:23 pm | PERMALINK
    Rather than pick apart the polls and try to discredit them. Take the attitude of “What do we change to stop this from continuing?”

    ———–

    force the media laws , otherwise nothing will change them

  • 24
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:25 pm | Permalink

    Even when Labor does good things,
    urdoch says they are bad. Endless negative headlines. How can you beat that?

  • 25
    silmaj
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:25 pm | Permalink

    Rudd said he was having a positive campaign. Wouldn’t a full blown negative attack be another Uturn?

  • 26
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

    The reachtel poll , newspoll, nielson, morgan, essentials, orany other poll

    tell the public where the polls are taken

  • 27
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

    Murdoch. Murky, malignant, megalomaniac Murdoch.

  • 28
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

    silmaj

    The polling trend tells a story. What Labor is doing now is not working. So change.

  • 29
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

    Why dont the opinion polling companies release what electorate they poll

  • 30
    Mick77
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

    Gillardstoration Now! Bring back the first bloke – he’s better looking than Rudd’s missus.

  • 31
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

    silmaj

    the people who are being polled are not being told anything negative about the alternative

  • 32
    Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:24 pm | PERMALINK
    Labor has its National Field Day, thousands of volunteers go to events all over the country so ReachTel polls.

    Right, so only the ALP folk are campaigning, eh?

    The LNP folk are just sitting at home in case of the 1 in 14,000 chance of being polled.

    I like the way you think ruawake!

  • 33
    alias
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

    I suspect that with Murdoch being so blatant (the Herald Sun shocker in Melbourne today is yet the latest example), Labor would be well advised to spend a LOT of money on advertisements making a very big deal out of this.

    Usually I would advocate the simple philosophy of “don’t shoot the messenger”. But in this case, the messenger is a thuggish American political bully.

    Spend a lot of money on ads pointing out that Rupert Murdoch is trying to dictate the terms in a country he has abandoned.

    Spend a lot of money pointing out that some sleazy tabloid prick called Col Allan thinks he can tell Australia what sort of government we should have.

    This is the end of the old media era. So the gloves need to come off. Don’t die wondering. Take the fight up to them.

  • 34
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

    Reason why these opinion polling deserve to be attacked , they are nothing but propaganda rubbish

  • 35
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

    Good negative advert on 7 now.

    End tag line. Trust Abbott on the GST sure Can’t.

  • 36
    Steve777
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

    I think Carey @20 is right – there’s not much to gain from shooting the messenger. For whatever reason, Tony Abbott and the Liberals are gaining. Labor needs to get its message across and also needs a strategy to counter or work around media bias. A large number of voters get all of their information on how the country is travelling from Murdoch tabloids, Commercial TV News and Current Affairs and Talkback Radio.

  • 37
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

    force the media laws , otherwise nothing will change them

    Maybe arrest the opposition too?

  • 38
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    I can not believe how anyone would defend the way opinon polling is being conducted

  • 39
    davidwh
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    You probably have to say it’s a trend back to the Coalition now.

  • 40
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    From the Financial Review

    Raising the goods and services tax – a measure regarded by many tax experts as the Holy Grail of tax simplification – is on the Coalition’s agenda and the Centre for Independent Studies urges such reform to enable income tax cuts.

  • 41
    silmaj
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    I seem to recall Anna Bligh trying that. Her polls went from respectable to disastrous.

  • 42
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    “@MayneReport: John Howard tells Rudd to stop morning about Murdoch press. And how big was that six-figure News Corp memoir advance JH negotiated directly?”

  • 43
    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    I like the way you think ruawake!

    Good try it. :P

    The issue is that one day polls are crap, that is why reputable pollsters poll over multiple days.

  • 44
    MTBW
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

    I mentioned the other day that political campaigns wax and wane. For goodness sake we are only one week into the election.

    People will get sick of the Murdoch overload in time as they should.

    Hold your nerve and see what happens it ain’t over till it’s over. We have a long way to go.

  • 45
    mari
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

    WOW all the LNPers out today on PB assume the last couple Cranky and Baby Sean will join in soon My only comment is don’t count your chickens just yet :devil:

  • 46
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

    silmaj

    That was because voters did not believe the allegations.

    There is video of Abbott attacking Bernie Banton that can be played truth is truth

  • 47
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

    Steve777
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:29 pm | PERMALINK
    ILabor needs to get its message across and also needs a strategy to counter or work around media bias.

    ———

    How are they going to do that , people keep on saying this but the pro coalition media will not let the message get out

  • 48
    alias
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

    My reaction on the GST scare campaign.

    For some reason it doesn’t really cut through.

    Why? Not sure. Maybe because GST has been around for ages and noone really cares.

    And also, so Vegemite goes up 50 cents? So what?

    You need to express this in terms of week, monthly or annual expenditure.

    Cite a much larger figure: This will cost you another XX dollars a year just to buy your basic groceries.

  • 49
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

    davidwh
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:30 pm | PERMALINK
    You probably have to say it’s a trend back to the Coalition now.

    ——–

    not really , because people are not being told about the coalition

  • 50
    MTBW
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:33 pm | Permalink

    alias

    This is the end of the old media era. So the gloves need to come off. Don’t die wondering. Take the fight up to them.

    Spot on!

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