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Federal Election 2013

Aug 10, 2013

ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49

An automated phone poll conducted today supports the broader polling picture of ongoing drift away from Labor, although a new Galaxy poll is somewhat more hopeful for them.

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A ReachTEL automated phone poll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 up from 52-48 last week, from primary votes of 36.9% for Labor (down 0.6%), 46.9% for the Coalition (up 1.2%) and 8.9 for the Greens (down 0.7%). On the all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47, up from 50.9-49.1 in the poll conducted on Sunday immediately after the election was called.

UPDATE: And now another Galaxy poll, this time national, and slightly better for Labor than other recent results. The Labor primary vote is at 38%, down two on the last national Galaxy result of a fortnight ago, with the Coalition and the Greens each up one to 45% and 10%. On two-party preferred the Coalition leads 51-49, compared with 50-50 last time. Kevin Rudd maintains a handy 47-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, although it’s down from 51-34. There are also questions on the respective leaders’ greatest weaknesses which you can see here. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1002.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1822 comments

1,822 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49

  1. well done to the libbots on spamming the 7 worm opt in, you beat us on that one

    in any case, I would be more interested in what a vetted audience thought than a stacked on

  2. give him a dag audience and abbott will ingratiate and distract like class clown he is. he is a bad student who covers incompetence with a multitude of tricks to gain some popularity – now he wants respectability, without literacy. we wont forgot the bastardry of lost 5 years. the labor govt ends the mining boom is typical of lying audience grabbing bursts that substitute for anything reasoned

  3. Actually to be honest, given my experience in analysing markets….given the level of interest the federal election is now generating…and the volumes I suspect that are actually bet:

    I am going to call the election now for a PM Abbott.

    The polls only need to stay at the constant level of 52/48 for Abbott to be less than $1.10 on election day AND that’s what the betting indicates to me where we are heading.

    I call it 10.51pm Aug 11.

    PM :mrgreen:

  4. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m
    #Galaxy Poll Federal Economic Management: ALP 36 L/NP 48 #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m
    #Galaxy Poll Has Rudd improved leadership style from 1st term as PM: Yes 30 (-3) No 51 (+8) #ausvotes

  5. [ Kevin the Massiah, supposedly the best debater in the world could barely give evil knuckle dragging Abbott a gentle Chinese burn with a goose feather. ]

    I agree. I always thought Rudd was a useless campaigner. He’s about as effective at “cutting though” as a wet lettuce leaf.

    He just doesn’t have the “go for the throat” instinct that is needed to take down a mongrel like Abbott.

    Sadly, Gillard did.

  6. Nine news Darwin’s Facebook page having a debate, started by the people who run the page, on media bias and specifically the campaigning under way from the Murdoch press. It is certainly being discussed! Time for a we will decide who governs this country and the circumstances in which they govern ad! :devil:

  7. political animal@1797

    Should have stuck with Gillard.

    In fact, in 2006 they should have made Gillard Leader, Rudd deputy—Gillard had higher support than Rudd. The whole Rudd experiment has been a disaster—and reading “The Stalking of Julia Gillard” it seems it was a predictable disaster!

    Abbott gets in, get Costello to do an “audit”—and the economy descends into recession!

    Rudd—a four letter word!

    Oh dear… still not recovered from the cult?

    Or just barking mad?

    Gillard was leading the ALP to disaster and, after giving her every chance and leaving things almost to the point of no return, Caucus replaced her. Live with it.

  8. Well this is an odd evening. I’m going to agree with Sean T on something and disagree with William on two things.

    It’s been my position for some time that the second airport should be off shore. I’m troubled that Sean agrees.

    That said I regard PMKR’s “it’s not all about Sydney” as entirely apt, and likely to go down well even here. People are at best ambivalent about the idea of a second airport. Letting Abbott take the heat and seem parochial on an issue that people in the vicinity of the most likely site aren’t keen on sounds politically smart.

    As to Abbott’s claim that “if the mining boom is over Labor killed it” this was a palpably silly claim. Hubby and I looked at each other in amusement at the idea that the ALP had control over the price of commodities. It’s classic Abbott overegging — not so out there as the Whyalla howler, but irredeemably stupid nonetheless. Abbott was left scratching about justify it and all he could come up with was “carbon tax” and “ABCC”. It was simply lame and suggested that Abbott knew he was losing and had to take a chance to put PMKR off his gameplan.