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Federal Election 2013

Aug 10, 2013

ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49

An automated phone poll conducted today supports the broader polling picture of ongoing drift away from Labor, although a new Galaxy poll is somewhat more hopeful for them.

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A ReachTEL automated phone poll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 up from 52-48 last week, from primary votes of 36.9% for Labor (down 0.6%), 46.9% for the Coalition (up 1.2%) and 8.9 for the Greens (down 0.7%). On the all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47, up from 50.9-49.1 in the poll conducted on Sunday immediately after the election was called.

UPDATE: And now another Galaxy poll, this time national, and slightly better for Labor than other recent results. The Labor primary vote is at 38%, down two on the last national Galaxy result of a fortnight ago, with the Coalition and the Greens each up one to 45% and 10%. On two-party preferred the Coalition leads 51-49, compared with 50-50 last time. Kevin Rudd maintains a handy 47-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, although it’s down from 51-34. There are also questions on the respective leaders’ greatest weaknesses which you can see here. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1002.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1822 comments

1,822 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49

  1. guytaur

    From last thread

    Also staying positive not working. Might as well go mongrel starting with reminding people of Abbott’s attack on a person in a wheel chair. If its good enough for Murdoch and Team Abbott.

  2. Meguire Bob

    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:12 pm | PERMALINK
    From last thread

    Also staying positive not working. Might as well go mongrel starting with reminding people of Abbott’s attack on a person in a wheel chair. If its good enough for Murdoch and Team Abbott.

    ——————————————————-

    The governemnt should have done this a while back

    Get the mediaauthoerity to do thier job

    Take licenses away from the media outlets who breach their own code of ethics and the election campaign

  3. Kevin Bonham

    First 53 for Coalition from any pollster since Rudd return. It is ReachTEL though and they have been pretty Coalition-friendly; my aggregate docks them a point. And said aggregate has gone to 51.3.

  4. Meguire Bob

    Media outles have to let the public know who they are baised too

    Why these media opinion polls should be banned

  5. Andrew

    Yes guytaur, can turn it around with steady and positive.

    The only thing that can turn would be a major game changer. Like the Windsor tapes…

  6. ruawake

    Did ReachTel really poll on a Saturday only? They may be getting paid but why is anyone taking any notice?

  7. Mod Lib

    The trouble the ALP has had over the last 6 years is vehemently arguing diametrically opposing cases:

    1. Carbon pollution greatest moral challenge- lets put it on hold
    2. There is no asylum seeker queue- we need to do this to stop queue jumpers
    3. We completely reject the Pacific Solution- Abbott is blocking us doing a Pacific solution
    4. We need a carbon price of $23- lets have a carbon price of $5
    5. We must get to a surplus, our economic credibility depends on it- we will show our economic credibility by not getting a surplus

    …..so having said for so long how he is sick of negative politics it would seem fitting for Rudd to go out all guns blazing against Abbott!

  8. Andrew

    Can’t turn it around

  9. Psephos

    I’m not doing an election guide this time (too much work, too many similar projects), but I have updated my Index of House of Representatives Divisions 1901-2013, with enrolments, two-party votes and members for every Division at every election since Federation.
    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/divisions/divisions.shtml

  10. guytaur

    Andrew

    Negative works when it is the truth. It fails when it is not.

    Running true negative adverts about Abbott showing his hypocrisy works.

  11. Toorak Toff

    I think it’s all Murdoch’s doing, really. And it will only get worse.

  12. Meguire Bob

    ruawake
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:16 pm | PERMALINK
    Did ReachTel really poll on a Saturday only? T

    ——–

    wouldnt be surprise

    Windsor called them the dodgy brother polling

  13. New2This

    Ban opinion polls … Being in the thought police meguire bob. Reprogram them I say..

  14. alias

    I have been away for 3 days and largely out of the loop in terms of political events.

    Sometimes this sort of distance is useful to get some perspective, and this is mine:

    Rudd’s chances of victory are significantly slimmer because the economy has turned. No fault of his, or of Labor’s; just happenstance. The jobless rate is heading up, growth is slowing and people are worried. That is an almost impossible hurdle to jump.

    Except for one thing.

    Tony Abbott.

    This is still a potentially freakish election in that Abbott is totally capable of confirming the very widely held suspicions that he is simply unfit to be Australia’s PM. Just one dumb moment in the glare of the election campaign would seal the deal, I believe.

    If Abbott is elected, he’ll be the accidental PM. The prevailing sentiment after the Liberal party vote to elect him (“Oh my God, what have we done?” ) will apply to the country as a whole if he romps home on Sept 7.

    I still think Rudd can pull this out of the bag, with Abbott’s help. It’s going to be tough. It’s going to be a seat by seat strategy, along the lines of Forde. We need several more Forde type masterstrokes to make victory seem more plausible.

    Still, overall I’m trying to reconcile myself to an Abbott PM-ship. At least he appears to have his heart sort of in the right place in relation to Aboriginal matters.

  15. triton

    It’s shocking that Abbott leads on PPM, but there’s still a huge difference from Newspoll (Abbott was slightly ahead on the last ReachTEL too). Do they ask the same question?

  16. Toorak Toff

    Now that he’s hit the lead, we can forget all that nonsense about “Australia will never elect Abbott as PM”.

  17. guytaur

    WE know Murdoch is campaigning against Labor. We know he gets down and dirty every time. The phone hacking proved it.

    Trying to be positive and taking the high ground just will not work as Labor has already abandoned that ground to the Greens with its AS policy.

    Labor now has to be at least as dirty as it can get away with to match Murdoch. That way Murdoch may back off as damage is done to his candidate Mr Abbott.

  18. Meguire Bob

    New2This
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:19 pm | PERMALINK
    Ban opinion polls …
    ———

    the current agenda media polls yes

    Opinion polling companies should be netural, and there should be no media influence

    The opinon polling should be polling all electorates

    1- questions about government and alternative polices

    2- No biased towards any party , the opinion polling is baised to the coalition

    3- No if an election is held now questions , once an election has been called

  19. pithicus

    ReachTel seem to produce polls at the drop of a hat.
    ppm results seem a bit out of wack.

  20. Carey Moore

    Rather than pick apart the polls and try to discredit them. Take the attitude of “What do we change to stop this from continuing?”

  21. Meguire Bob

    triton
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:20 pm | PERMALINK
    It’s shocking that Abbott leads on PPM, but there’s still a huge difference from Newspoll (Abbott was slightly ahead on the last ReachTEL too). Do they ask the same question?

    ————

    reachtel isnt a poll to worry about

  22. ruawake

    Labor has its National Field Day, thousands of volunteers go to events all over the country so ReachTel polls.