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ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49

An automated phone poll conducted today supports the broader polling picture of ongoing drift away from Labor, although a new Galaxy poll is somewhat more hopeful for them.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 up from 52-48 last week, from primary votes of 36.9% for Labor (down 0.6%), 46.9% for the Coalition (up 1.2%) and 8.9 for the Greens (down 0.7%). On the all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47, up from 50.9-49.1 in the poll conducted on Sunday immediately after the election was called.

UPDATE: And now another Galaxy poll, this time national, and slightly better for Labor than other recent results. The Labor primary vote is at 38%, down two on the last national Galaxy result of a fortnight ago, with the Coalition and the Greens each up one to 45% and 10%. On two-party preferred the Coalition leads 51-49, compared with 50-50 last time. Kevin Rudd maintains a handy 47-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, although it’s down from 51-34. There are also questions on the respective leaders’ greatest weaknesses which you can see here. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1002.

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  • 101
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

    Simon Baker@95

    Of course just after Rudd was elected Reachtel had it 52-48 to the Coalition and Essential Research 53-47 to the Coalition with the LNP on 46% to the ALP’s 36%, exactly the same as this poll, so it is really the gains of the last few weeks that have been lost.

    The 53-47 ReachTEL still included Gillard-era data, it was not purely Rudd-era data. This is the first 53 with purely Rudd-era data.

  • 102
    Steve777
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

    And should the ALP win, exclude News Corporation from all Australian Government services and advertising where it is legal to do so and does not detract from the delivery of government services. And stack the board of the ABC, just like John Howard did and like Abbott would if he got the chance.

  • 103
    Simon Baker
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    Alias – Abbott has already debated before in the 2010 debate with Gillard which Gillard won and where she steadied the ship after a rocky start to the campaign

  • 104
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

    Could it be that voters are simply not listening. Period. They have made up their minds that the govt is dysfunctional and self absorbed (the whingeing about Murdoch underscores this), and have decided it’s time to give the other mob a go.

    Consider too that we’ve effectively had 3 years of campaigning, and if someone like me who follows politics closely is over it, just imagine what disengaged voters are feeling.

  • 105
    MTBW
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

    ÖC

    I agree with you that NSW is a real problem and it has been for years now.

    We have both railed against them for years we have to now work around them.

  • 106
    Mick77
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

    MTBW

    And guess what at least we are not getting a 29% primary in the opinion poles.

    Give it time, give it time.

  • 107
    Simon Baker
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:57 pm | Permalink

    Kevin Bonham – No it was a snap poll taken on June 27th, the day Rudd won

  • 108
    jaundiced view
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

    meher baba

    I guess I might be prepared to qualify the term “well-educated”. The more accurate term is “who had the most years of formal education” (not necessarily the same thing, of course).

    It’s an interesting question, but the problem with that sort of anecdotal personal ‘survey’ is that it is meaningless. From memory, the more highly educated a person is, the more likely they are to be ‘liberal’ rather than ‘conservative’. It would be interesting to do an analysis of the remnant ‘left’ and ‘right’ in Labor on it.

  • 109
    Simon Baker
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:59 pm | Permalink

    Or more to the point, the day Rudd assumed office

  • 110
    Simon Baker
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

    As you can see it was conducted on the night of 27th June
    http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-june-2013

  • 111
    triton
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

    Kevin Bonham@53

    triton@15

    It’s shocking that Abbott leads on PPM, but there’s still a huge difference from Newspoll (Abbott was slightly ahead on the last ReachTEL too). Do they ask the same question?

    They handle the answers differently. ReachTEL disallows “don’t know” as an option. Leads to massive differences in result. So in a ReachTEL if you get an LO up 53-47 in a 53-47 poll it’s nothing that unusual. If you got the same from any other poll it would be very odd indeed.

    Thanks, Kevin. But it leads to: Which method is more representative of reality? When we read a poll that says that A is preferred PM to B, X% to Y%, we want to know that the results pretty much reflect our understanding of the question.

  • 112
    alias
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

    Confessions

    I think you make a very fair point. It’s quite hard to be follow this stuff so closely and simultaneously get inside the heads of the average disengaged punter in western Sydney, or a marginal Brisbane or Melbourne seat.

    In modern life, the instinct – sadly – is often just to chuck out the old, and bring in the new. Whether it’s TV set, or a smartphone or a government. We live in the age of just chucking out the old because we’re vaguely fed up with it, without conducting due diligence.

    That is a huge hurdle for Rudd. As I said earlier, his biggest ally in this pursuit is undoubtedly Abbott, but we really need Abbott to do something characteristically dumb on a crucial point of public policy – and to do it with all cameras blazing.

  • 113
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:02 pm | Permalink

    Unfortunately MTBW I despair that the party can be reformed – nothing substantial has happened in NSW in the 2.5 years since the worst defeat in NSW for 100 years.

  • 114
    lizzie
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:03 pm | Permalink

    I can never understand why, when someone tells the truth as they see it, they are attacked with a wet lettuce. There is no point in a conversational blog that simply repeats the same stuff all the time.

  • 115
    Simon Baker
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:04 pm | Permalink

    jaundiced view – Not really, graduates are more likely to vote for the Coalition, postgraduates for the ALP. The ALP tends to do best amongst those with the highest and least education, the Coalition in the middle, although the Coalition does tend to win the wealthiest unsurprisingly

  • 116
    Simon Baker
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:04 pm | Permalink

    jaundiced view – Not really, graduates are more likely to vote for the Coalition, postgraduates for the ALP. The ALP tends to do best amongst those with the highest and least education, the Coalition in the middle, although the Coalition does tend to win the wealthiest unsurprisingly

  • 117
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:04 pm | Permalink

    Mundine defects!

    I guess he just got tired of being the token who was never going to get the rewards.

  • 118
    Rosemour or Less
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:05 pm | Permalink

    ABC News ‘Kevin Rudd insists he’s still the underdog..

    FFS Kevin you don’t have to insist.
    You are the underdog.

  • 119
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:06 pm | Permalink

    Simon Baker@107

    Kevin Bonham – No it was a snap poll taken on June 27th, the day Rudd won

    Sorry; when I said “the 53-47 ReachTEL” I meant the 53-47 Essential. The snap ReachTEL was 52-48.

  • 120
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:06 pm | Permalink

    but we really need Abbott to do something characteristically dumb on a crucial point of public policy – and to do it with all cameras blazing.

    Like he’s continually done in all the years he’s been in public office?

  • 121
    Rosemour or Less
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:08 pm | Permalink

    Abbott’s roll is beginning….you can feel it.
    It ain’t even gonna be close folks.
    Hang on tight.
    The next dozen or so years are going to make the Howard years seem like a walk in the park.

  • 122
    rummel
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:16 pm | PERMALINK
    The trouble the ALP has had over the last 6 years is vehemently arguing diametrically opposing cases:

    You also missed.

    Labor for three years, were vehemently arguing against…… Kevin Rudd.

  • 123
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

    Back here momentarily.

    The Dogs are doing it for Julia!

    And YAY Richmond!

  • 124
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:10 pm | Permalink

    Alias
    I don’t think that is true. There have been only 8 changes of government at elections in the last 100 years; 1914 1929 1931 1949 1972 1983 1996 2007
    The electorate is quite conservative but it expects the government to be stable and functional. The rabble that has ruled for the past 3 years will not be rewarded

  • 125
    Rosemour or Less
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

    The ALPs political naivete gives me the shits.
    They’re going to be beaten by a bloke who actually said he lies and the Labor party are just going to let it happen.
    Trust for fuck sake. People trust Abbott.

    THE ALP ARE USELESS

  • 126
    MTBW
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

    OC

    I join your despair re NSW as well but we will just have to work around it.

    Just saw Mundine on the ABC News very thrilled with himself he is.

    Albo just said in the follow up that Mundine had resigned his membership of the ALP a couple of years ago.

  • 127
    jaundiced view
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

    Simon Baker

    jaundiced view – Not really, graduates are more likely to vote for the Coalition, postgraduates for the ALP. The ALP tends to do best amongst those with the highest and least education, the Coalition in the middle, although the Coalition does tend to win the wealthiest unsurprisingly

    Interesting, but of course we need to include the Greens given the amorphous mass the duopoly is these days. Do you have a source for that btw?

  • 128
    Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

    By the way, thanks for endorsing Dastyari.

    This confirms the views of those of us that live in NSW that the Obeid legacy lives on in the ALP and the ALP desperately needs a good kick up the toosh.

    In the lead up to the election we are going to have:
    1. Obeid taking about his innocence
    2. Tripodi and other ALP ministers appearing before the Corruption Commission
    3. Dastyari winning the NSW Senate seat
    4. Obeid saying he made Dastyari

    You could not write a better script and the ALP keeps dishing this stuff up!

    Do you never learn?

  • 129
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:13 pm | Permalink

    I bought the Age today.

    Lots of gloooom and doooom there.

    Absolutely countered by a promo for Verdi’s Requiem in Melbourne early September.

    I am booking.

  • 130
    Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

    rummel
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:09 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 6:16 pm | PERMALINK
    The trouble the ALP has had over the last 6 years is vehemently arguing diametrically opposing cases:

    You also missed.

    Labor for three years, were vehemently arguing against…… Kevin Rudd.

    There are just so many examples of ALP backflips, where to start….where to stop????? ;)

  • 131
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

    Saw that MTBW but it was only 18 months ago that he thought he was going to be a senator.

    I always thought Mundine’s main priority was Mundine and the ALP once seemed to be the best vehicle.

  • 132
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:15 pm | Permalink

    By the way, thanks for endorsing Dastyari.

    Yep, stupid decision by a party whose re-election hinges on being seen as completely different as its NSW branch.

  • 133
    mari
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:15 pm | Permalink

    Rosemour or Less
    I wonder what happened to that young man in 1972 or 3 who was doing a pantomine?Changed into a bitter old man? Snap out of it no wonder your wife has stopped you going to parties if this is the way you carry on :devil:

  • 134
    Mick77
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:17 pm | Permalink

    MTBW

    Albo just said in the follow up that Mundine had resigned his membership of the ALP a couple of years ago.

    Albo also mixes drinks with Thomson but anyway Rudd followed up with a smile about Mundine, how he loves him etc, seeks his advice and then held up his phone to show the reporters that he had Mundine’s number in it. Cringe

  • 135
    Simon Baker
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:17 pm | Permalink

    Kevin Bonham – No, that Essential Research poll was conducted from 27th-30th June, ie post Ruddstoration.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2013

  • 136
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

    Whats the unhingement like tonight?

  • 137
    lizzie
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

    Mick77

    I don’t see why Rudd had to say he “loved” Mundine.
    Part of the Labor cringe.

  • 138
    Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

    Mundine might retort with:

    “Pity Rudd didn’t pick up the phone when the Senate seat went to Carr!”*

    * yes, I know it was another Gillard genious stroke!

    Another NSW “Always” Right ALP parachute-in candidate.

  • 139
    Simon Baker
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

    Oakeshott – Keating won in 1993 after ousting Hawke

  • 140
    jaundiced view
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

    Carey Moore

    The Dastyari and Beattie decisions tell us nothing has changed. Worse, it means that nothing will.

  • 141
    MTBW
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

    OC

    I always thought Mundine’s main priority was Mundine and the ALP once seemed to be the best vehicle.

    Totally agree and I read today that he is married to Gerard Henderson’s daughter.

    I am really angry about this Thistlethwaite Dastyari deal.

    Dastyari may just be the winner in the game because Thistlethwaite is no certanty for Kingsford Smith it on something like a 3% margin.

    The should have endorsed Tony Bowen who may have had a much better chance of winning.

  • 142
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

    Rosemour’s job is not to make Labor supporters feel happy. Rosemour’s here, like many of us, to tell it as we see it. While, I think he/she might be a bit too pessimistic, he/she could well and truly be correct as well.

    This election could go either way. Which means Rudd could claim back the lost ground, or that ground could widen.

  • 143
    triton
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

    Rosemour is a lost cause, but I haven’t given up.

    cw, I don’t know Verdi’s Requiem, but I love Mozarts’s, even if he didn’t write it all. It’s about the only Mozart I like. I’m more a Beethoven person.

  • 144
    liyana
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:21 pm | Permalink

    Rosemour is just venting some frustration and where else are they going to do it but here? Have patience people!

    I can’t believe anybody who can count would vote LNP..I just don’t want them to have dominance of the senate.

    Oh could somebody publicise their plan to make public schools ‘independent.’?

  • 145
    Mick77
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    ST

    Whats the unhingement like tonight?

    You’re missing all the fun – we’re playing “kick the Krudd” and “bring back Gillard”.
    Hey .. it’s my turn next: take that you earwax eating alien krudd. Ouch!

  • 146
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    The Dastyari and Beattie decisions tell us nothing has changed. Worse, it means that nothing will.

    Yep, the problems are institutional.

    Make no mistake, I am not supporting Labor out of a love for Rudd but merely because I believe Abbott would not make a good PM.

    Also because I think that, if Rudd loses, Bowen will be leader and I couldn’t think of a crappier choice.

  • 147
    lefty e
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    I have a theory that this is all occuring in the media phantom zone lately, at one remove from reality.

    Once the punters see the two of the speaking, at the same forum, the jinx could break.

    I think the pressure on Abbott going into this is enormous. He could break the hoodoo just by being himself. What if the punters see him live and realise:

    “oh that right. He cant be PM. He’s a total pork chop!”.

    Serious possibility. :)

  • 148
    mari
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    See Baby Sean JV and Rummel have arrived to gloat, now only ones missing are Cranky and Lady whatever sure they will arivee shortly :devil:

  • 149
    jaundiced view
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    Having been away for a little while is there an explanation as to why Albanese had a beer with the creep Thomson?

  • 150
    Rosemour or Less
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

    mari

    ’72/3 golden days.
    And the name of the panto?

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