tip off

Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll’s second poll for the campaign shows no change on the two-party preferred, but a fair bit going on in the primary vote. Morgan’s weekly multi-mode poll has also made an early appearance, and they also offer an SMS poll on responses to the debate.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll’s second weekly (I presume) poll for the campaign has the Coalition lead at 52-48, unchanged on last week. However, Labor is down two (to 35%) and the Coalition up two (to 46%) on the primary vote, with a two point increase for the Greens to 11% allowing the two-party vote to remain stable, presumably with help from rounding. Tony Abbott’s numbers continue to improve, his personal ratings now almost equal with Kevin Rudd’s. He is up four points on approval to 38% and down four on disapproval to 52%, while Kevin Rudd is up one apiece to 39% and 48%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-33 to 46-37.

UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, which normally comes out on Monday afternoon, has made its appearance, and it’s well in line with all the other polling: Labor down 1.5% to 36.5%, and both the Coalition and the Greens up a point to 44% and 10.5%. That pans out to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition on two-party preferred using 2010 election preferences, but a stronger 50-50 result for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences. State breakdowns are featured, and they interestingly show a five-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred in Queensland.

Morgan also got 1200 responses to an SMS poll conducted this evening on reaction to the debate, which is probably the most reliable data we have on this. It shows an effective dead heat with Kevin Rudd rated the winner by 24%, Tony Abbott favoured by 23%, 5% calling it a draw, and 48% granted that they hadn’t watched (non-watchers presumably also having tended to be non-respondents).

BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll result but not the Morgan. I’ll follow up on that tomorrow after Essential Research comes out (UPDATE: Essential Research will not be out until tomorrow, so I’ve updated BludgerTrack without it).

2129
  • 51
    lefty e
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    England now three down and 19 in front. Game on.

    Ooh, thats me watchign two things on GEM in one evening. Unprecendented.

  • 52
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    2PP looks like it was probably very close to going to 53-47.

  • 53
    matt31
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Ah 11 percent primary! May people continue to predict that Greens crash! :devil:

    On the seat of Melbourne, Galaxy gave Bandt a 48% primary. Even if that is high side, when you consider a likely leakage in Liberal preferences, (one third at the Victorian state election from memory) then Bandt has a better than even chance of survival imho.

  • 54
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:19 pm | Permalink

    Rudd’s polling in 2010 was as toxic in Qld as anywhere else. Despite that, there was some element of Ruddist backlash in the 2010 results. But I think the view that Rudd is especially popular in Qld is incorrect.
    ———————————————————-

    I’m sitting in N/W WA and the impression is that Rudd is popular in Qld.

    But then I’ve never understood Qld. How they tolerated Joh and his gerrymander for so many years and their XXXX beer sucks

  • 55
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    Thanks Psephos. I disagree on Bamdt’s seat while we are seeing double figure primary for the Greens.

    Goodnight

  • 56
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    @AA/54

    Yes, and then fail to fix the budget even with Costello in charge of accounting.

  • 57
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    40

    Katter and Palmer will not do as well as if Gillard had stayed ALP leader. I think the KAP will be a force in FNQ and still be in with a chance to scoop enough preferences to take a seat off the LNP in the Senate.

    Bandt is in for a real fight in Melbourne.

    Thomson is probably only running for the redundancy payout and the per vote funding.

  • 58
    paaptsef
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    Crikey Whitey

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/photos/gallery-e6frf94x-1225901597581?page=1
    http://resources1.news.com.au/images/2011/04/05/1226033/831317-mark-latham-and-john-howard.jpg
    http://twitpic.com/d7okxy

  • 59
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    Labor is Toxic in Queensland. Rudd is the local boy, but he’s still Labor.

    My guess is the vote in QLD will be the same as in 2010

  • 60
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    I get 47.0 to 53.0 from those primaries (yes, yes, I know the primaries themselves are rounded!!! Just saying it must have been on the Coalition side of 52-48).

    The ALP Primary vote of 35 is catastrophic in the election campaign proper and I think the ALP hard heads here know that very, very well.

    From 35% you have to do a whole lot of relying on preference flows, which you kinda don’t have to do from a base of 46%!

    Psephos:

    I can accept 1 or 2 in SA, 2 or 3 in Vic, No change in WA, even a 1 or 2 seat gain in Qld but I reckon there are bigger losses in NSW and I would be absolutely amazed if the ALP didnt lose at least 1, very, very likely 2 and possible 3 seats in Tassie.

  • 61
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    Of course, the definition of popular is a vague one but by all objective measures, Newman doesn’t lead.

    I wonder if peak Rudd was the most “popular” PM, historically. Or if another, probably Hawke, took that title at their peak…

  • 62
    lefty e
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    Yep, Bandts primary vote could get high enough that it really doesnt matter what happens with LIB prefs.

    Again though: it doesnt matter much to the big game either way.

  • 63
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    @Matt31/53

    Looks like they gone back to 2010 election amount.

    With Greens being on 11%, 2010 election was 11.76%.

    Labor will have to work hard to remove the 2-3% from Coalition Party.

  • 64
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    The only good thing to come out of the Howard years was the Future Fund…missed the opportunity to develop a proper Sovereign Fund

    and Howard getting booted by his own electorate…

  • 65
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    Rudd: Satisfied 39(+1), Dissatisfied 48 (+1)
    Abbott: Satisfied 38(+4), Dissatisfied 52 (-4)

    Greens primary is 11 (+2)

    by James J on Aug 11, 2013 at 11:14 pm

    Perhaps the most telling number from this Newspoll is that the messiah Rudd only beats the demonic Abbott by 1% on Satisfaction readings and 4% on Dissatisfaction readings.

    I think that says it all.

  • 66
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    Sean Tisme

    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    Labor is Toxic in Queensland. Rudd is the local boy, but he’s still Labor.

    My guess is the vote in QLD will be the same as in 2010
    —————————————————–

    your comment gives me hope that Labor will pick up more seats than predicted

  • 67
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    Thank God Rudd is saving the furniture

  • 68
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    your comment gives me hope that Labor will pick up more seats than predicted

    They’ll probably pick up Forde and thats all.

  • 69
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    Interestingly, we haven’t had a 53-47 Newspoll for a year (since Aug 21 2012 to be precise!)

  • 70
    lefty e
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    35% would certainly be a poor base, but lets not forget Galaxy had it at 38% only last night.

    But I think the view that Rudd is especially popular in Qld is incorrect.

    Sure, but then Labor is not especially popular in QLD. The real question is whether he’s more popular than Gillard was in QLD.

    Last evidence we saw is that Fed ALP was up 3% on earlier this year in QLD. Final verdict will be known on Sept 7.

  • 71
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    Does 53/47 have a special sentiment for you ML? :)

  • 72
    morpheus
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    Oakshott Country @67

    “Thank God Rudd is saving the furniture”

    Yep, he’s go the Sybian all to himself now.

  • 73
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    I reckon there are bigger losses in NSW and I would be absolutely amazed if the ALP didnt lose at least 1, very, very likely 2 and possible 3 seats in Tassie.

    Well, that was my view as well, but my gossip today was from well-informed people.

  • 74
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib@60

    I get 47.0 to 53.0 from those primaries (yes, yes, I know the primaries themselves are rounded!!! Just saying it must have been on the Coalition side of 52-48).

    Highest I can get to add up is 47.7 for Labor.

  • 75
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    Does 53/47 have a special sentiment for you ML?

    by davidwh on Aug 11, 2013 at 11:34 pm

    Just that this was Newspoll’s chance!

    Its a pity that Rupert Murdoch is such a partisan ALP supporter that he deliberately manipulates poll rounding to prevent me seeing a 53-47…..oh, for a free and fair media in Australia! :devil:

    (and with that mischief, good night!)

  • 76
    davidwh
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    I think Rudd is more popular in QLD than JG ended up but no sure he was ever as popular as some here believed. There is a touch of the local boy about his perceived popularity.

  • 77
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    @morpheus/72

    Actually he still has, Abbott won’t get senate control.

    (Kevin/William can correct me).

  • 78
    paaptsef
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    A Sybian /ˈsɪbiən/, or Sybian saddle, is a masturbation device designed for use by females, developed by dance instructor Dave Lampert in the 1980s

    wha???

  • 79
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    The real question is whether he’s more popular than Gillard was in QLD.

    No, Gillard’s popularity is irrelevant now as she is no longer in parliament.

    The real question of popularity is between the two current leaders.

  • 80
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib@60
    I get 47.0 to 53.0 from those primaries (yes, yes, I know the primaries themselves are rounded!!! Just saying it must have been on the Coalition side of 52-48).
    Highest I can get to add up is 47.7 for Labor.

    by Kevin Bonham on Aug 11, 2013 at 11:36 pm

    Just out of interest, how do you do that?

    The highest I can get them is 47.56!

  • 81
    spur212
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    And next week the error on the ALP primary vote from Newspoll will correct itself and it will be reported as “Rudd bounce” when public opinion didn’t really change (unless it does change which would be a bit of a different story)

    I suspect there might be something a bit wrong with Newspoll’s methodology these days. I tend to ignore it because of this suspicion

  • 82
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    I reckon there are bigger losses in NSW and I would be absolutely amazed if the ALP didnt lose at least 1, very, very likely 2 and possible 3 seats in Tassie.
    ———————————————————–
    Will the Sinodinos involvement with Obeid bite in NSW?

    And any “dirt” on Brough/Hockey/Pyne etc involvement in the Ashby/Slipper “affair” make a difference in Qld?

    I hate this type of politics but it seems to have become the norm.

  • 83
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    Actually, cancel that. You just need to go to 2 decimal places and it works! 47.7%!

  • 84
    Steve777
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    Just saw the Labor ad about privatising health care. That could work. After all, it is what the Liberals want to do, even if they won’t say so. If pushing health costs onto individuals is such a good idea, why don’t the Libs say so and tell us why it’s a good idea? We could be like the USA, world’s highest per capita health costs but illness or accident can bankrupt you. Still, private health funds are probably very profitable over there and they probably have the world’s wealthiest medical specialists.

  • 85
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    77

    Whether or not the Coalition wins, the Senate will now not be very friendly to the Coalition. The ALP will loose a Senator to the Coalition in Tasmania but will not loose any not to the Greens anywhere else. The Greens will not loose in WA, will gain in Victoria and Queensland and may gain in New South Wales but might loose SHY in SA. The Alp and Greens will have at least half the Senate.

  • 86
    paaptsef
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    loose senators are always a worry

  • 87
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    From last …

    Well this is an odd evening. I’m going to agree with Sean T on something and disagree with William on two things.

    It’s been my position for some time that the second airport should be off shore. I’m troubled that Sean agrees.

    That said I regard PMKR’s “it’s not all about Sydney” as entirely apt, and likely to go down well even here. People are at best ambivalent about the idea of a second airport. Letting Abbott take the heat and seem parochial on an issue that people in the vicinity of the most likely site aren’t keen on sounds politically smart.

    As to Abbott’s claim that “if the mining boom is over Labor killed it” this was a palpably silly claim. Hubby and I looked at each other in amusement at the idea that the ALP had control over the price of commodities. It’s classic Abbott overegging — not so out there as the Whyalla howler, but irredeemably stupid nonetheless. Abbott was left scratching about justify it and all he could come up with was “carbon tax” and “ABCC”. It was simply lame and suggested that Abbott knew he was losing and had to take a chance to put PMKR off his game plan.

  • 88
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    Will the Sinodinos involvement with Obeid bite in NSW?

    And any “dirt” on Brough/Hockey/Pyne etc involvement in the Ashby/Slipper “affair” make a difference in Qld?

    No and no. People here really do need to grasp how remote from all this stuff the floating voters are. Most of them have never heard of Sinodinos, Ashby or Slipper. Their interest in this kind of esoterica is exactly zero.

  • 89
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib@80


    Mod Lib@60
    I get 47.0 to 53.0 from those primaries (yes, yes, I know the primaries themselves are rounded!!! Just saying it must have been on the Coalition side of 52-48).
    Highest I can get to add up is 47.7 for Labor.

    by Kevin Bonham on Aug 11, 2013 at 11:36 pm


    Just out of interest, how do you do that?

    The highest I can get them is 47.56!

    Not sure what exact figures Newspoll uses but from the 2010 2PPs (http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseStateTppFlow-15508-NAT.htm) I’m using Greens 78.8% and Others 41.7%

    Then I’d ideally add .5 to all of Labor, Greens and Others but that doesn’t leave enough to get Coalition up to 46.

    So I take Coalition down as low as it will go, to 45.5, and take Others down (!) to fractionally over 7.5 so I can put Labor up to fractionally under 35.5 and Greens up to fractionally under 11.5.

    35.5+11.5*.788+7.5*.417 = 47.69.

  • 90
    Mick77
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    lefty
    Even though this result technically gets me half-way on our wager it doesn’t reflect the debate so we’ll just wait for Nielsen and make a judgement.

    And besides why shouldn’t I be generous when all my post-knifing#2 predictions are pretty well being borne out: honeymoon, same old Rudd, fake, all talk and there you have it, sinking like a stone. Now just gotta see Rudd at 45/46% on election day and we’re there – Gillard territory revisited so it was all for nought! Couldn’t happen to a nicer earwax eater and although few here will agree with me, the ALP absolutely deserves what’s coming to them this time round. Most of the decent people from ALP caucus are now lost to them because of the folly of the last 3 years.

  • 91
    Laocoon
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

    ‘fess @ previous thread

    I just thought I was seeing the first Labor advert on TV, and then realised it was a promo for the Gruen Transfer.

    Would not have thought ALP would have much $$$ to spend on TV ads in WA…

  • 92
    morpheus
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

    Mick77 @90

    “Couldn’t happen to a nicer earwax eater”

    Sig worthy.. He he he. But don’t give Messiah Kevin any ideas. He might just do a Twitter selfie of it .

  • 93
    morpheus
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Well, at least Beattie knows that his PMship will be well and truly assured after the election after that debate and ominous clouds circling Kevin’s ego.

  • 94
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    Psephos@16

    They now expect no change in WA, or in Tas – which contradicts Kevin B’s views, but that’s what I’m being told.

    I’m open to being convinced on the two losses in Tas, but I’d like to see either public or at least large internal seat samples by someone other than ReachTEL, or else substantial statewide sampling in excess of 55:45 by someone other than Morgan. For all I know, even in the last few weeks the northern seats might have shifted substantially, there’s been a fair bit of pork flung in their direction after all.

    Having only ReachTEL as a public seat sampler is a difficult position because they are producing such awful seat samples for Labor everywhere, to a degree that seems out of kilter with even their national 2PP. I wouldn’t trust them if there was anything even semi-solid to go on that was going the other way.

  • 95
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    @morpheus/92

    Not sure the difference buddy, a guy slept through Parliament while the biggest market crash is happening or a guy in Parliament earwax eater?

    Or about Jo Fisher doing the pokey dance?

  • 96
    Nemspy
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    lefty e
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    I’ll take that after the last few polls. No shift.

    Lets see what impact the debate and marriage equality might have.

    But the big one has to be the economy.

    I don’t think too many people are changing their vote based upon marriage equity. Such obvious pandering for a feel good policy to win votes – it’s the apology all over again. He’ll take more votes off the Greens than he will The Coalition.

  • 97
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

    #Galaxy Poll Managing the cost of living: ALP 39 L/NP 42 #ausvotes

  • 98
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    If the way Colon the Liberal Emperor has arrogantly treated the WA public with his broken election promises, with the “chair sniffer” saying an increase in charges 1.5% above the election promise of CPI is “near enough” and the 50% reduction in solar panel feed, the increase in company tax, the re-introduction of land tax and paid parking at train stations along with increased fares is not enough to turn voters then I doubt anything will.

  • 99
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    Re a second airport for Sydney – it’s ain’t going to happen. There is just too much nimby opposition. Also, unless it’s built at Badgery’s Creek, there’s nowhere to put it. Neither Abbott PM nor Rudd PM nor their heirs and successors would risk it. Sydney has as many international airports as it’s ever going to have. Sydney will just have to adapt. It may mean there are growth opportunities that Brisbane, Melbourne or even Canberra might want to take up (in the case of Canberra, as an expanded Airport for Canberra, not a second Airport for Sydney). Thinking about it, maybe a future where Sydney grows less with more growth elsewhere isn’t so bad.

  • 100
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    Just saw the Labor ad about privatising health care

    Good. Thats what Im talking about.

    Mick, as you note, this doesnt advance our bet any, since the research was obviously conducted pre-debate.

    That it might give you confidence, I wouldnt dispute.

    But then, Galaxy wasnt too bad at all from my perspective.

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