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Federal Election 2013

Aug 11, 2013

Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll's second poll for the campaign shows no change on the two-party preferred, but a fair bit going on in the primary vote. Morgan's weekly multi-mode poll has also made an early appearance, and they also offer an SMS poll on responses to the debate.

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GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll’s second weekly (I presume) poll for the campaign has the Coalition lead at 52-48, unchanged on last week. However, Labor is down two (to 35%) and the Coalition up two (to 46%) on the primary vote, with a two point increase for the Greens to 11% allowing the two-party vote to remain stable, presumably with help from rounding. Tony Abbott’s numbers continue to improve, his personal ratings now almost equal with Kevin Rudd’s. He is up four points on approval to 38% and down four on disapproval to 52%, while Kevin Rudd is up one apiece to 39% and 48%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-33 to 46-37.

UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, which normally comes out on Monday afternoon, has made its appearance, and it’s well in line with all the other polling: Labor down 1.5% to 36.5%, and both the Coalition and the Greens up a point to 44% and 10.5%. That pans out to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition on two-party preferred using 2010 election preferences, but a stronger 50-50 result for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences. State breakdowns are featured, and they interestingly show a five-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred in Queensland.

Morgan also got 1200 responses to an SMS poll conducted this evening on reaction to the debate, which is probably the most reliable data we have on this. It shows an effective dead heat with Kevin Rudd rated the winner by 24%, Tony Abbott favoured by 23%, 5% calling it a draw, and 48% granted that they hadn’t watched (non-watchers presumably also having tended to be non-respondents).

BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll result but not the Morgan. I’ll follow up on that tomorrow after Essential Research comes out (UPDATE: Essential Research will not be out until tomorrow, so I’ve updated BludgerTrack without it).

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2129 comments

2,129 thoughts on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

  1. This little black duck

    Figures will be released on the Wednesday before the election. Trust me.

  2. lefty e

    [The Coalition do NOT need to release their costings.]

    Sean, under the Charter of Budget Honesty,introduced by Peter Costello, they actually do have to.

  3. Meguire Bob

    The only thing i will say about essential polling

    liek every ohter opinion polling why are they gutless to ask about the biased from newsltd

  4. imacca

    Ah, that one was from the last election then.

    Hmm…..wonder what :monkey: and troupe can expect this time?? 🙂

  5. davidwh

    Why are you all calling for costings you already know are wrong, misleading and full of black holes?

  6. sprocket_

    So basically, the Liberals got all their candidates to dress up in ble shirts, pump up a few ballons and corflutes, and put up a stage in a locked carpark at the back of Penrith Trotting Paceway.

    Then bus the unsuspecting journalists and tv crews in. No public allowed in through locked gates.

    And then the coup de grace, the Abbott festooned bus arrives, but the gates are locked – so it holds up traffic for a while till they open up.

    Cue shots of cheering Liberals, beaming Abbott – kids in tow – and cameras whirring.

    Lets see how the news channels run this tonight

  7. lefty e

    Ooh,check out these nasty approval figures for Abbott by gender.

    Big problem with women voters: By gender – men 45% approve/47% disapprove, women 31% approve/55% disapprove.

    Women net disapproval up from -16 to -24 – in last 4 weeks.

  8. imacca

    And before the spelling Nazi’s descend, in my 2102 i did mean troupe, not troop.

  9. bemused

    imacca@2098


    Laura Tingle

    There are two possible explanations for how an opposition presenting itself as an alternative government could end up with an $11 billion hole in the cost of its election commitments.

    One is that they are liars, the other is that they are clunkheads. Actually, there is a third explanation: they are liars and clunkheads.

    But whatever the combination, they are not fit to govern.


    So, Laura is not really one for pulling her punches then?

    Laura needs to have a word with her editor.

    A baseball bat may assist her argument.

  10. mikehilliard

    sprocket – where do you get this stuff?

    Photos show why there was so much raucous cheering, Abbott preaching to the converted, no sceptics allowed.

  11. AussieAchmed

    Sean believes that Abbott should ditch Costello’s Charter of Budget Honesty.

    Liberals even dumping Liberal initiated reform

    CHARTER OF BUDGET
    HONESTY
    THE HONOURABLE PETER COSTELLO, M.P.,

    During the caretaker period the legislation will allow both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition to request that costings of their announced policies be
    prepared by the Secretaries to the Department of the Treasury and the Department of Finance. Requests may only be made by the Prime Minister or Leader of the Opposition
    with respect to his or her own party’s policies.

    The availability and public release, on request, of independent costings by departments can assist in better informing the electorate about the financial implications of election commitments prior to the election.

  12. ruawake

    If Hockey had done his costings on the Economic Statement and not PEFO he would have had an extra $800 million to play with.

    PEFO increases the CT and MRRT by that amount, of course Joe doesn’t want the money.

  13. This little black duck

    davidwh@2103

    Why are you all calling for costings you already know are wrong, misleading and full of black holes?

    Because we want one point of reference for the two sides. Only way to a fair comparison.

  14. zoidlord

    @davidwh/2103

    It’s not that they are wrong or misleading, but rather what will Coalition Party do in the advent of winning the election.

    Remember, Tony Abbott said that he is modeled himself on Jeff Kennett.

  15. Andrew

    Sean is kind of right. The coalition will be allowed by the OM to get away with not releasing full costings.

    Tingle should renew her attack. I wonder whether she will?

  16. Andrew

    Has Costello been asked what he thinks of the coalition, for the second successive election, not complying with his charter?

  17. imacca

    [Laura needs to have a word with her editor.

    A baseball bat may assist her argument.]

    LoL!

    I once watched Penny Wong in Senate Estimates trying to explain things in simple words to Bernardi and Joyce. I emailed her and suggested that she may feel better if she takes a taser or cattle prod with her next time next time.

    More fun, and less blood than a baseball bat. 🙂

  18. Andrew

    zoidlord the Kennett reference i think was a major error. I hope the ALP runs ads in Victoria about it

  19. AussieAchmed

    PEFO increases the CT and MRRT by that amount, of course Joe doesn’t want the money.

    or the $5 billion in business tax cuts. hahaha

    what a crock of shite!

    We will cut company tax 1.5%…then introduce a levy of 1.5%

    I was never good at maths but that looks dodgy even to me

  20. AussieAchmed

    zoidlord

    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

    @davidwh/2103

    It’s not that they are wrong or misleading, but rather what will Coalition Party do in the advent of winning the election.

    Remember, Tony Abbott said that he is modeled himself on Jeff Kennett.
    ————————————————

    Colon will be upset. When in WA Abbott said he would model himself on Barnett.

    Abbott – the multi-model personalities

  21. guytaur

    Well only needs Bolt to join the chorus

    @michellegrattan: Heat on Coalition to stump up its costings http://t.co/HP9jG6NM4t via @ConversationEDU #auspol #ausvotes

  22. Meguire Bob

    AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:28 pm | PERMALINK

    Colon will be upset. When in WA Abbott said he would model himself on Barnett.

    Abbott – the multi-model personalities

    —————–
    So Will Campbell ,When in QLD Abbott said he would model himself on Newman

  23. StephenD

    imacca:

    And before the spelling Nazi’s descend, in my 2102 i did mean troupe, not troop.

    You might have avoided the spelling Nazis, but the Apostrophe Police are running towards you with their Tasers out.

  24. AussieAchmed

    mikehilliard

    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:21 pm | Permalink

    sprocket – where do you get this stuff?

    Photos show why there was so much raucous cheering, Abbott preaching to the converted, no sceptics allowed.
    ———————————————————

    did he have notes?

    or was he wearing an earpiece so Peta could keep reminding him to breath

  25. This little black duck

    Mr Abbott will model himself on another of his heroes: Campbell Newman. Tony is a Queenslander, after all.

  26. AussieAchmed

    Meguire Bob

    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:30 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:28 pm | PERMALINK

    Colon will be upset. When in WA Abbott said he would model himself on Barnett.

    Abbott – the multi-model personalities

    —————–
    So Will Campbell ,When in QLD Abbott said he would model himself on Newman
    ——————————————————-

    will the real tony abbott please stand up please stand up

  27. 1934pc

    “”At least this campaign, compared to the last, their costings are an issue””

    Don’t trust them, they will try to pull that one again!.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgjGWYZSVUA

  28. don

    imacca@2108

    And before the spelling Nazi’s descend, in my 2102 i did mean troupe, not troop.

    #Nazis