tip off

Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll’s second poll for the campaign shows no change on the two-party preferred, but a fair bit going on in the primary vote. Morgan’s weekly multi-mode poll has also made an early appearance, and they also offer an SMS poll on responses to the debate.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll’s second weekly (I presume) poll for the campaign has the Coalition lead at 52-48, unchanged on last week. However, Labor is down two (to 35%) and the Coalition up two (to 46%) on the primary vote, with a two point increase for the Greens to 11% allowing the two-party vote to remain stable, presumably with help from rounding. Tony Abbott’s numbers continue to improve, his personal ratings now almost equal with Kevin Rudd’s. He is up four points on approval to 38% and down four on disapproval to 52%, while Kevin Rudd is up one apiece to 39% and 48%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-33 to 46-37.

UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, which normally comes out on Monday afternoon, has made its appearance, and it’s well in line with all the other polling: Labor down 1.5% to 36.5%, and both the Coalition and the Greens up a point to 44% and 10.5%. That pans out to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition on two-party preferred using 2010 election preferences, but a stronger 50-50 result for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences. State breakdowns are featured, and they interestingly show a five-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred in Queensland.

Morgan also got 1200 responses to an SMS poll conducted this evening on reaction to the debate, which is probably the most reliable data we have on this. It shows an effective dead heat with Kevin Rudd rated the winner by 24%, Tony Abbott favoured by 23%, 5% calling it a draw, and 48% granted that they hadn’t watched (non-watchers presumably also having tended to be non-respondents).

BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll result but not the Morgan. I’ll follow up on that tomorrow after Essential Research comes out (UPDATE: Essential Research will not be out until tomorrow, so I’ve updated BludgerTrack without it).

2129
  • 101
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:09 am | Permalink

    I don’t think too many people are changing their vote based upon marriage equity. Such obvious pandering for a feel good policy to win votes – it’s the apology all over again. He’ll take more votes off the Greens than he will The Coalition.

    One factor here is that at every election, there is a larger cohort of 18-21yo first-time voters who have no fixed loyalties, because class-based party loyalties are slowly but steadily declining. These voters are particularly susceptible to emotional issues involving perceived injustice and cruelty – what one might cynically call “baby-seal” issues. This year’s baby-seal issues are clearly refugees and same-sex marriage. Rudd has had to move to the right on refugees to shore up his support among working-class voters in NSW and Qld, and it appears that tactic has worked. So he is off-setting that with the first-timers by taking a high profile stand on same-sex marriage.

  • 102
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:09 am | Permalink

    Who would want to go to Sydeney any way?

    Far better places in Oz

  • 103
    Nemspy
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    Since Abbott has come away with a “win” in the debate (And by “win” I mean he did OK enough in a pretty bland affair) his best bet would be to refuse any other debates on the basis of “We don’t want a US Presidential-style campaign” and watch the Ruddsterection stall and nosedive.

  • 104
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    Nemspy – perhaps, though even then may see the ALP PV rise (at GRN expense), which has confidence implications.

    That said, I dont rule out younger undecided voters being moved by this one, and not jsut shuffling between ALP and GRN. We really dont know yet on this issue – though there is strong polling on the issue in that demographic.

  • 105
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    BludgerTrack updated. Labor has deteriorated a further 0.4% on two-party preferred, but the seat projection hasn’t changed. You can observe from the seat probabilities chart that this is rather fortuitous for Labor, who are in fact credited with only a 22% chance of winning 67 seats. This is down to the fact that a lot of rounding (all of it, in fact) has gone their way in converting the state seat totals to whole numbers.

  • 106
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Newspoll Rudd: Approve 39 (+1) Disapprove 48 (+1) #ausvotes

  • 107
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 7s

    #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 38 (+4) Disapprove 52 (-4) #ausvotes

  • 108
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:12 am | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 22s

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Rudd 46 (-1) Abbott 37 (+4) #ausvotes

  • 109
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:12 am | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 8s

    #Newspoll Who will win the election: ALP 26 L/NP 54 #ausvotes

  • 110
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:12 am | Permalink

    Franklin candidate debate video for anyone who might be interested:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8dC47GM-w8

    It’s an hour and 40 mins long and the first hour is boring; after that it fires up quite a lot.

  • 111
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:14 am | Permalink

    One factor here is that at every election, there is a larger cohort of 18-21yo first-time voters who have no fixed loyalties, because class-based party loyalties are slowly but steadily declining. These voters are particularly susceptible to emotional issues involving perceived injustice and cruelty – what one might cynically call “baby-seal” issues.This year’s baby-seal issues are clearly refugees and same-sex marriage

    Which is more coherent way of expressing what I said above. I think there fresh votes in this one, and not necessarily shuffling the cards between ALP and GRNs.

    But youve gotta get fresh punters ENROLLED by 8pm Monday night.

  • 112
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:14 am | Permalink

    Since Abbott has come away with a “win” in the debate (And by “win” I mean he did OK enough in a pretty bland affair) his best bet would be to refuse any other debates on the basis of “We don’t want a US Presidential-style campaign” and watch the Ruddsterection stall and nosedive.

    Abbott would have preferred no debates at all, on the Roger Ailes principle of “never debate when you’re ahead.” But that’s not possible, so he agreed to one debate, early enough in the campaign for any negative effects to wash out by election day. All he needed tonight was not to punch anyone or to have one of those brain-freezes he has. And by that very low standard he was successful. So that will be it for debates. Net significance, nil.

  • 113
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:16 am | Permalink

    By the way there’s something a little bit spooky about the PPM. It’s identical to the one before Rudd was booted in 2010.

  • 114
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:16 am | Permalink

    Who would want to go to Sydeney any way?

    Sydney’s pretty good apart from the traffic and the dank, overcast Summers.

  • 115
    Rosemour or Less
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:17 am | Permalink

    So for some here this result isg ood news?
    On Sept6 the same people will be buoyed by 52 tocoalition.
    There’s still time they’ll say. Still on track to a thumping great ALP victory they’ll say.

    Holy fuck.
    What a clusterfuck this is gonna be.

  • 116
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:19 am | Permalink

    @Rosemour or Less/115

    4 weeks to go.

  • 117
    paaptsef
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:21 am | Permalink

    give Smith a bowl

  • 118
    geoffrey
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:22 am | Permalink

    all goes well

    rudd has taken on big task and is holding own well

    he is against a show pony spoilt brat of murdoch who has got away with unmitigated lies and bratness for long time – maybe just maybe media will start on him, or rudd and co get more agressive, or stay steady in face of atrocious bullying of last week – this is best expected under circumstances, and all well

  • 119
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:23 am | Permalink

    The world’s foremost internet traffic study and growth forecast, which historically has been proven very accurate, describes a further explosion of internet traffic around the world and in Australia. The findings illustrate a requirement for fibre optic cable “deep deep into the infrastructure” both for wired and wireless broadband connections.

    The global study carries with it political ramifications in Australia where the opposition Coalition parties maintain that the optic fibre-based infrastructure currently being implemented by NBN Co is not needed to fulfil the promised benefits of the NBN and that suggesting so is “one big lie.” However, the study further illustrates, using measured figures and reasonable growth curves, how the Coalition’s alternatives won’t just be unable to support the benefits to health, education, power distribution, business and society that NBN Co’s current planned infrastructure will provide, but also that they won’t be able to support the regular organic growth of the general internet requirements that we have now – within just four years!

  • 120
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:27 am | Permalink

    Steve777

    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:16 am | Permalink

    Who would want to go to Sydeney any way?

    Sydney’s pretty good apart from the traffic and the dank, overcast Summers.
    ======================================================
    and the Blues who can’t win state of origin series

  • 121
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:28 am | Permalink

    Last election had 52(ALP)/48(COAL) for the weeks 3/4 then last final week had both parties 50.2(ALP)/49.8(COAL)

  • 122
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:31 am | Permalink

    The only thing wrong with Sydney is that it’s too far out of town.

  • 123
    spur212
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:31 am | Permalink

    That cost of living figure from Galaxy is very interesting

    I’m going to make a very unpopular call at this point and say Rudd’s campaign so far is actually working even though they have declined by a couple of points since the budget update. It should become more evident in a week and a bit

  • 124
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:31 am | Permalink

    I did hear a bit of the ‘Great Debate’ and Tony did come out with some crap on Climate Change. He re-iterated his party’s commitment to the bipartisan emissions reduction target. What a joke! Most of Tony’s party colleagues and supporters believe Climate Change is crap. Tony probably does, otherwise why his comments about CO2 being invisible?* He’s trying to downplay the issue. So why do the Opposition support a target for the reduction of the emission of an invisible (and therefore presumably harmless) substance? Meanwhile, his bankrollers are actively trying to block any effective action.

    Abbott also spoke about his so-called Direct Action plan, which no credible authority thinks would be effective in meeting the emission reduction target unless it is expanded by an order of magnitude. On that, he is either a liar or an ignoramus.

    * CO (Carbon Monoxide) is also invisible. That doesn’t mean its harmless

  • 125
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:33 am | Permalink

    122

    Real cities have tram systems!

  • 126
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:33 am | Permalink

    Morgan out early.

    50-50 resp all
    51.5-48.5 L-NP last election

    Greens up

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5100-federal-vote-morgan-poll-august-11-2013-201308111354?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morgan+Poll+20130811&utm_content=Morgan+Poll+20130811+CID_37a707b50aec4898e61f3d458ba4f276&utm_source=Market%20Research%20Update&utm_term=Read%20full%20article

  • 127
    Mick77
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:34 am | Permalink

    It would be interesting to see how well Rudd would have done after a morning marathon. I suppose he can still do Ruddspeak whilst on his back.

    Abbott is truly an amazing person. I don’t like him particularly but you gotta give him his dues and I think he’ll probably be a good PM. Rusted on Laborites need not fear 9 or 12 years of him; I think he’ll hand over the PMship late into his second term at around age 61 I think.

    Lastly, why do the less psephosically challenged of us (Psephos, Kevin B, William) all think that Beattie is a plus for Labor and why won’t he go the same way as Rudd and be struggling in Forde? Popularity is a somewhat overused word wrt Qld hasbeens and also fairly fleeting when revisited.

  • 128
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:35 am | Permalink

    @Kevin/126

    Interesting, Morgan calling for another hung parliament.

  • 129
    geoffrey
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:42 am | Permalink

    ah morgan … good honey for sleep. all on track. labor was been thrown a lot and done its own tidy up … going well … i think results are equal and will move steadily inexorably ..any victory is a good one after the past years of liberal whiteanting of systems of govt

  • 130
    geoffrey
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:43 am | Permalink

    mick abbot is not amazing at all – he is manipulable untalented tool and dupe of others – minerals + media dont like labor

  • 131
    geoffrey
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:43 am | Permalink

    next thing pell will run anit labor campaign – on ssm – to preserve christian morals – hahaha

  • 132
    geoffrey
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:45 am | Permalink

    what clowns here say the election is over?? centre? and other lesser luminaries. au contrarie ye impatient ones. we waited and baited for three years to get rudd to this point – three weeks is just a little sleep and lo, the world will be full of clarity again

  • 133
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:45 am | Permalink

    It would be interesting to see how well Rudd would have done after a morning marathon.

    Not bad enough that we have the muddied oafs of Winter, the thugs of thugby, the prima donnas of tennis (both sexes)and the flanneled fools of Summer dominating much of the space in the News, we’re going to have one as PM. Give me a graceful, dignified lady like Julia or a bookish nerd like Kevin any time over a thuggish, ignorant boofhead like Abbott.

  • 134
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:45 am | Permalink

    zoidlord

    “Interesting, Morgan calling for another hung parliament.”

    Not that I take Morgan terribly seriously but oh boy. Heads would explode.

  • 135
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:47 am | Permalink

    Morgan also has an actual poll, conducted by SMS, on responses to the debate: 24% Rudd, 23% Abbott, 5% a draw, 48% didn’t watch.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5099-federal-election-leaders-debate-august-11-2013-201308111313

  • 136
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:50 am | Permalink

    Mick, as far as I know I’ve said nothing myself about Beattie being a plus. All I’ve said is that I can see why the polling in Qld caused them to turn to him. I haven’t said anything about whether I think it works, and I think it was more desperation than anything that caused Rudd to approach him.

    Apparently Labor did need a new candidate in Forde anyway but if Beattie carries such a big punch then I would have thought use him to take out a seat with a bigger margin. If Labor can’t win Forde with any old hack then the Queensland thing isn’t happening.

  • 137
    Mick77
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:50 am | Permalink

    Geoffrey
    Abbott is amazing – sporting wise, volunteer wise, academically, spiritually, family, and has achieved the PMship against all the odds. He’s driven and focussed so I don’t know why you call him untalented.

  • 138
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:53 am | Permalink

    @Kevin/136

    Well according to the poll, Beattie did give abit of a boost for QLD.

    @Mick77/137

    Talented and fit for office is entirely different things.

  • 139
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:54 am | Permalink

    Morgan also has an actual poll, conducted by SMS, on responses to the debate: 24% Rudd, 23% Abbott, 5% a draw, 48% didn’t watch.

    And you can bet those 48% included most of the people who will actually decide the election. Their total awareness of the debate (and indeed of most of the campaign) will be “politicians yadda yadda yadda.” Do try to remember this when obsessing over trivia over the next four weeks.

    I’m on a plane to Thailand tomorrow morning so I hope you will all behave while I’m away. See you on 3 September.

  • 140
    Mick77
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:56 am | Permalink

    Just before sweet dreamtime, am i missing something in the Morgan poll? Isn’t Labor down another 1% here as well from last time, consistent with the Rudd slow-but-sure sinking everywhere.

    And thanks Kevin B for yr response on the more serious part of my earlier post. I personally think Beattie is a Dud and won’t win Forde. The Rudd-Beattie love-fest was cringe-worthy and Qlders must see through the desperation tactics, but we’ll see. ‘Nite

  • 141
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:57 am | Permalink

    “A close analysis of State by State results shows a strong boost to the ALP’s support in Queensland this week. The ALP (50%, up 5%) is now level with the LNP (50%, down 5%) on a two-party preferred basis after former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie was recruited last week to stand in the marginal LNP seat of Forde (held by the LNP by only 1.6%).

    From Morgan. Welcome to the Beattie factor in QLD.

    50-50 punters. Unchanged. Lucky you excluded that one Mick. :)

  • 142
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:59 am | Permalink

    volunteer wise,

    Apparently he charges most of that to the taxpayer, which is indeed amazing :p

  • 143
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 12:59 am | Permalink

    @Primary Vote/140

    Greens increased their vote to make up.

  • 144
    Mick77
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 1:01 am | Permalink

    Z
    Beattie gave a small bounce to ALP in Qld but I think we’ll see the Rudd style deflation also.

    As for Abbott, Geoffrey called him untalented so putting that aside as obvious nonsense, being “fit for office” is pretty subjective and most PMs grow into the job with the realities of life as PM and I think PM Tony Abbott will surprise even you rusted-on Labs.

  • 145
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 1:04 am | Permalink

    I have to say: 5% is not a ‘small’ bounce from Beattie. Its a massive jump.

    As for durability, well, lets wait and see.

  • 146
    Mick77
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 1:06 am | Permalink

    lefty

    50-50 punters. Unchanged. Lucky you excluded that one Mick. :)

    We both agreed that Morgan is suss but my “no change” compared with your “2% gap improvement” would have meant another one in my column. Also didn’t it go 1% more to Libs on 2PP and not stay the same .. please someone, an authoritative answer on the mysteries of Morgan polling?

    Lastly lefty, the debate wasn’t part of the Morgan equation so another one out-of scope.

  • 147
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 1:08 am | Permalink

    @Mick77/144

    That might have been the case, except Morgan was shown changes this week (5% infact).

    While “fit for office” might be subjective, I have watched these past years as someone who’s been a swinging voter (heck even my parents don’t like him) he isn’t Priministership, there has been no leadership in his own party, and not willing to sack those who have done wrong.

    And As I said before I am not a “LAB”.

    Just because I don’t agree with your POV doesn’t make me a Labor Supporter.

  • 148
    lefty e
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 1:09 am | Permalink

    True Mick. But Galaxy and Morgan are keeping my spirits up.

    PS I think in the end we settled on “improvement” rather than necessarily a 2% improvement for me, no change for you, but Id had a few so Id have to check.

  • 149
    Mick77
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 1:10 am | Permalink

    I don’t understand Morgan at all – William always superimposes bias adjustments but anyway if it is no change, the punters are unimpressed; betfair still 6.20.

  • 150
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 1:11 am | Permalink

    @Mick77/146

    Reachtel 53/47
    Nielsen 52/48
    Newspoll 52/48
    Galaxy 52/48
    Morgan 50/50 – Hung Parliament.

    Reachtel low.
    Mid Nielsen, Newspoll, Galaxy.
    Morgan high.

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