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Federal Election 2013

Aug 13, 2013

Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slightly better news for Labor from Essential Research, which records essentially no change on last week and has Kevin Rudd maintaining a solid lead as preferred prime minister.

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Essential Research’s weekly rolling average bucks the trend just slightly in having Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, although the point comes at the expense of the Greens who are down one to 8%, with the Coalition steady on 43%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 51-49. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have also failed to improve, contrary to other recent polling, his approval down two to 37% and disapproval steady at 51%. Kevin Rudd’s ratings tell a more familiar story however, his approval down five to 45% and disapproval up eight to 43%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 50-35 to 47-35.

As it occasionally does, Essential poses a question more concerned with measuring knowledge in opinion: in this case, 25% think Australia’s national debt is higher compared to other developed countries while 46% say it’s lower, with Coalition voters about evenly divided. Forty-eight per cent rate reducing debt more important than maintaining spending on services and projects against 40% who think the opposite. Forty-five per cent would prefer the government cut spending to reduce debt against only 6% who would prefer taxes be raised, with 21% opting for both and 18% for neither. Foreign aid, the arts, subsidies for business and private schools top the list of preferred targets for cuts, with roads, public schools, pensions and health at the bottom.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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855 comments

855 thoughts on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

  1. Meguire Bob

    AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:28 pm | PERMALINK

    Colon will be upset. When in WA Abbott said he would model himself on Barnett.

    Abbott – the multi-model personalities

    —————–
    So Will Campbell ,When in QLD Abbott said he would model himself on Newman

  2. guytaur

    Morrison Presser imminent

  3. guytaur

    PMKR on 24 now

  4. guytaur

    From last thread

    Well only needs Bolt to join the chorus

    @michellegrattan: Heat on Coalition to stump up its costings http://t.co/HP9jG6NM4t via @ConversationEDU #auspol #ausvotes

  5. sprocket_

    Tony Abbott has locked out the people of Penrith from his stage managed “Western Sydney Launch”

    https://twitter.com/ChrissieM/status/367140282229215232/photo/1

  6. This little black duck

    With so many new threads the wardrobe will soon be overflowing.

  7. guytaur

    24 cuts PMKR for Morrison

  8. AussieAchmed

    Meguire Bob

    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:30 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:28 pm | PERMALINK

    Colon will be upset. When in WA Abbott said he would model himself on Barnett.

    Abbott – the multi-model personalities

    —————–
    So Will Campbell ,When in QLD Abbott said he would model himself on Newman
    ——————————————————-

    will the real tony abbott please stand up please stand up

  9. autocrat

    [Tony Abbott has locked out the people of Penrith from his stage managed “Western Sydney Launch”]

    The truth is that many locals have eaten at the Paceway in the past, and so would not have turned up to an event there under any circumstances.

  10. guytaur

    He would know

    “@MayneReport: Kennett era had some wrinkles, not just Abbott’s “golden age of development” ie unfettered roll-out of high-intensity pokies in poor areas.”

  11. This little black duck

    And heerrree is Scoot! Again.

  12. guytaur

    Now Abbott with some panthers

  13. This little black duck

    I don’t know what he is on but I don’t want any of it, thank you.

  14. guytaur

    Another locked ground no doubt

  15. This little black duck

    Penrith can’t have too much Abbott.

    Gates locked?

  16. This little black duck

    Is that lady on the right a statue?

  17. mikehilliard

    Gee there is some really scary statistics in William’s last paragraph.

    Hard to believe 25% think Australia’s debt is higher than other developed countries & 48% think reducing debt is more important than public services. 🙁

  18. This little black duck

    No, just another PR machine.

  19. This little black duck

    Mr Abbott is way too weird in how he touches women. Creepy.

  20. guytaur

    24 returns to PMKR

    Morrison remains cut off by Abbott

  21. Diogenes

    The longer the AFL delays making its announcement, the greater the suspicion will be that it’s a stitch-up.

  22. sprocket_

    William, Any comments on Roy Morgan’s observation on landlines?

    [Roy Morgan ‏@roymorganonline 2m There is an additional “conservative” bias with land line users. If you don’t build mobile phones into the sample it will skew to L-NP.]

  23. autocrat

    Even Renai LeMay, who I at one point thought was going to ask Malcolm to marry him, calls Turnbull for the liar that he is.

    Good work.

  24. sprocket_

    are the wheels falling off the Golden Boy?

    [Lanai Scarr (Vasek) ‏@pollietracker 13s Tony Abbott just said local candidate “has a bit of sex appeal” when asked to name her traits #ausvotes]

  25. AussieAchmed

    Abbott’s a Manly Sea Eagles supporter.

    I used to be until I found that out, all the t-shirts etc made for a good fire on the barbie

  26. guytaur

    Here is a good one to talk about strategists

    “@MayneReport: Tony Abbott’s “golden age of development” under Kennett also included dodgy crony casino capitalism being emulated by Barry O’Farrell now.”

    Mr Mayne seems to have a few things to share

  27. lefty e

    Not a bad result for Labor given recent polls, with an improvement in PV particuarly welcome.

    If you read the fine print, bad news for Abbott among women voters: he’s gone from-16 to -24 net approval among women in 4 weeks.

  28. confessions

    [Voters are being prepared for Tony Abbott to emulate Premier Colin Barnett and backflip on numerous election promises, according to high-profile WA Labor candidate Alannah MacTiernan.

    Mr Abbott’s federal campaign hit a speed bump today, when Liberal backbencher Don Randall said the coalition may have to consider going back on election promises given the poor state of the national budget.

    After Mr Abbott publicly chastised the MP for Canning, Ms MacTiernan claimed the comments were a sign of things to come, pointing out that during the WA election campaign, Mr Abbott had cited Mr Barnett as one of his political idols.

    “Mr Randall is setting the scene – even before the election – for Mr Abbott to be walking away from his election promises,” Ms MacTiernan said.

    “Mr Abbott has said he wants to model himself on Mr Barnett, and that would be a pretty frightening prospect after the last couple of months have seen a complete betrayal of the (Barnett election) commitments.”]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/18481686/aust-being-set-up-by-abbott-mactiernan/

  29. This little black duck

    Now we get the Pink Bishop.

  30. AussieAchmed

    If Sean’s there do hope he remembers to slip slop

    and slap Abbott

  31. sprocket_

    Its only Tuesday for Abbott

    Monday “the suppository of wisdom”

    Tuesday “has a bit of sex appeal” when asked about Liberal candidate Fiona Scott’s attributes

    Wednesday ……. TBA

  32. confessions

    [Tuesday “has a bit of sex appeal” when asked about Liberal candidate Fiona Scott’s attributes]

    Scott is reportedly not Abbott’s preferred candidate for Lindsay.

  33. guytaur

    sprocket

    That comment will be trending soon if my timeline is any guide

  34. guytaur

    “@bradsprigg: @kimmaree_tweet @pollietracker “And her hair tastes AMAZING””

  35. lefty e

    Message to Labor: cue highlighting policy area known to appeal to women voters.

    Wellknown chink in armour is currently opening wider.

  36. AussieAchmed

    I can imagine the earpiece Abbott has to wear…Peta whispering into his ear

    breath in… breath out.. breath in..breath out. stop walking…now you talk….NO..Don’t try to walk and talk…

  37. William Bowe

    Sprocket, there are no doubt issues with landline only polling and including mobiles gets better results, but it sounds to me like Gary Morgan (not Roy, PBUH) is rationalising the fact that his own polling is skewing to Labor.

  38. sprocket_

    Just regarding Fiona Scott, Paul adds some helpfull context

    [ Paul J ‏@Paul_MJ 2m @sprocket___ @pollietracker I’ve met her … She hasn’t !]

    On top of the Essential approval/dissaproval amongst women for Abbot of 31/55 and the Creepy Photo a day, I’d be worried if I was a YoungLib/Menzies House troll

  39. autocrat

    [Scott is reportedly not Abbott’s preferred candidate for Lindsay.]

    I can’t work out how Scott could be anyone’s choice. In 2010 she got beaten by the ALP in an area that a few months before had been lost to the Libs in the state election with a 26% swing (not to mention the general turn against LG in western Sydney).

    I don’t think it will go well for her this time either, apparently she’s pretty lazy.

  40. triton

    I don’t know if the expectation of a 9 am announcement even came from the AFL. If it did, the AFL would have given a correction, but it has said nothing all day.

  41. pithicus

    lefty
    many women seem to be put off purely from his demeanor. This is a big plus for the alp.
    I am sort of repulsed by him and am a man.

  42. zoidlord

    Holden workers 4pm announcement, so could be bad news for either party (probably more so Coalition Party).

  43. lefty e

    [Tuesday “has a bit of sex appeal” when asked about Liberal candidate Fiona Scott’s attributes]

    Cue further drop in Abbott’s net approval among women.

    Weak spot alert!

  44. sprocket_

    [ William Bowe
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:54 pm | Permalink
    Sprocket, there are no doubt issues with landline only polling and including mobiles gets better results, but it sounds to me like Gary Morgan (not Roy, PBUH) is rationalising the fact that his own polling is skewing to Labor.
    ]

    thanks for the correction 😉 , had to look up PBUH – Peace Be Upon Him? an honorific for one who has passed..

  45. BK

    [Lanai Scarr (Vasek) ‏@pollietracker 13s Tony Abbott just said local candidate “has a bit of sex appeal” when asked to name her traits #ausvotes ]
    If that’s what you say, Tone.
    http://ts4.mm.bing.net/th?id=HB.142908197363&pid=15.1

  46. This little black duck

    pithicus,

    Are you sure you are a man?

    Australopithecus is an extinct genus of hominids.

  47. Kinkajou

    Only the Oz could spin suppositorygate as “Abbott gives Rudd the bum’s rish”

    Suppositorygate….hmmm….askhole?

  48. lefty e

    I thought Abbott’s weakest moment in the debate was when he wagged his finger at the camera “you’ve got vote them out”.

    He looked a bit deranged. Has anyone got a link to that particular footage?