tip off

Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slightly better news for Labor from Essential Research, which records essentially no change on last week and has Kevin Rudd maintaining a solid lead as preferred prime minister.

Essential Research’s weekly rolling average bucks the trend just slightly in having Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, although the point comes at the expense of the Greens who are down one to 8%, with the Coalition steady on 43%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 51-49. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have also failed to improve, contrary to other recent polling, his approval down two to 37% and disapproval steady at 51%. Kevin Rudd’s ratings tell a more familiar story however, his approval down five to 45% and disapproval up eight to 43%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 50-35 to 47-35.

As it occasionally does, Essential poses a question more concerned with measuring knowledge in opinion: in this case, 25% think Australia’s national debt is higher compared to other developed countries while 46% say it’s lower, with Coalition voters about evenly divided. Forty-eight per cent rate reducing debt more important than maintaining spending on services and projects against 40% who think the opposite. Forty-five per cent would prefer the government cut spending to reduce debt against only 6% who would prefer taxes be raised, with 21% opting for both and 18% for neither. Foreign aid, the arts, subsidies for business and private schools top the list of preferred targets for cuts, with roads, public schools, pensions and health at the bottom.

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  • 101
    geoffrey
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:43 pm | Permalink

    Just me ..thanks for long analysis ..said better than all and things we all wanting to say. Very pertinent

  • 102
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

    @nickharmsen: Initial results of #Holden EBA vote expected within 10 mins.. keep an eye on @ABCNews24 #adelaide #saparli

  • 103
    geoffrey
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

    A day is a long time … the enemy in swamps and wind yet to fill sails

  • 104
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

    Sex appeal of a hamburger bun.
    http://resources2.news.com.au/images/2013/04/04/1226612/481718-fiona-scott-penrith.jpg

  • 105
    sprocket_
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:48 pm | Permalink

    some great photos on the campaign trail

    here is Abbott and Turnbull today

    https://twitter.com/ellinghausen/status/367118974892257281/photo/1

  • 106
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:49 pm | Permalink

    sprocket

    Good grief. Turnbull has aged

  • 107
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:50 pm | Permalink

    @annajhenderson: OL Abbott says candidate has sex
    appeal. Deputy PM Albanese says candidates should be judged on their ability to represent the community.

  • 108
    Marrickville Mauler
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:50 pm | Permalink

    TLBD: Re Abbott and the current requirement in Cth law for State agreement to GST changes”, the following from Oiver Cromwell comes to mind:

    Of what assurance is a law…if it be in the same Legislature to unlaw it again? Is such a law likely to be lasting? It will be a rope of sand; it will give no security, for the same men may unbuild what they have built.

  • 109
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:50 pm | Permalink

    Just Me – I agree with geoffrey@101, have printed you post off (on recycled paper :-) ) for easier reading.

    Does anyone else’s eyes blur out when reading the screen?

  • 110
    sprocket_
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:50 pm | Permalink

    and here is the Sexy One, with her admirer

    https://twitter.com/ellinghausen/status/367159618645929984/photo/1

  • 111
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

    MM – Nice quote.

  • 112
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:52 pm | Permalink

    @105 – Turnbull looks knackered! I bet he’s hoping Abbott looses.

  • 113
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:54 pm | Permalink

    Sex appeal of a hamburger bun.
    http://resources2.news.com.au/images/2013/04/04/1226612/481718-fiona-scott-penrith.jpg

    Maybe it would have been better if you couldn’t see Penrith in the background. It reminds me a bit of this famous effort.

    http://www.epicfail.com/2009/08/26/sexy-fail-5/

  • 114
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:55 pm | Permalink

    For the first time in a very long time, I watched QANDA last night. I immediately regretted it.

    It seemed that the show was dominated by Christopher Pyne, who was allowed to go unchallenged by anyone on the panel as he simply trotted out the LNP talking points. And when he tag-teamed with Janet Albrechtson over “press freedom”, the stupid just burned. Rhys Muldoon was scarcely allowed to develop a thought and what he did offer — some obscure quote from Mencken — was never apposite in this context.

    Bandt, much as I like him personally, just wasn’t assertive enough, and really didn’t sound much like the alternative to Wong and Pyne, even on media regulation.

    Let’s be clear — the entire virtue of “freedom of the press” is its potential to empower the citizenry to understand their circumstances — their community and their governance so as to determine how best to prosecute their interests, individually and in concert with others. If the slogan “freedom of the press” merely serves to mask the rule of the privileged and to mystify the citizenry about their scope for action, then it is mere cant. Imagine a room in which 50 people are attempting to discuss the way forward and 3 people with megaphones are shouting alternatively at each other and sometimes in concert with each other at the Chair or the 46 people in the audience. The chair tries suggesting that the three might like to turn down their megapghones and allow other voices to be heard, but the megaphone holders cry “what have you against megaphones? Nobody has to listen to us and they can always get their own megaphone. You just want to shut down debate and scrutiny.

    That is what we have here in Australia.

    With freedom always comes responsibility — the obligation to deal honestly and equitably with others. If you’re not going to do that then others can sneer at your demands to be free to act as you please. Here, “freedom of the press” is debauching public discourse. Here, as Jefferson commented all those years ago, reading the press commonly leaves you less well informed than if you’d missed it entirely.

  • 115
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

    Voting for Tony Abbott will give you wings for suppository.

  • 116
    Dee
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

    A gaff a day keeps the policy questions away.

  • 117
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    Dee

    Good point. Referring to the post by Just me on the previous page, sets out precisely the fibs modus operandi

  • 118
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    MM

    Pinched your Cromwell bit. :)

  • 119
    shellbell
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

    Anthony Green’s election blog is a good read. I like this little bit on some names of candidates past and present:

    The HEMP party have a candidate called Robbo Da Yobbo, nearly as good as Kitten Snape, the Palmer United Australia candidate for Jagajaga. Almost as good as Jarrod Panther, a regular Labor candidate in the Victorian state seat of Warrandyte. No sign yet of None of the Above nominating again in Gilmore.

  • 120
    Outsider
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

    @81. Interestingly, on the same basis, the Commonwealth might choose to raise the GST rate and retain some of the revenue for its own use. Not that this is necessarily a bad thing. At some point, tax collections need to increase. But I would prefer this to happen by way of removal of tax expenditures rather than increases in tax rates. Removing the GST exemption for food would be a good starting point, but if you look at Treasury’s Tax Expenditure Statement, there’s quite a smorgasbord of potential revenue sources that don’t require tax rate increases!!

    And Fran @85, on the subject of forecasts, I agree with you wholeheartedly, with one extra comment: there is no private sector organisation that comes within cooee of Treasury’s forecasting capabilities. Treasury has access to vast information sources and has built economic modelling systems that are far more sophisticated than any private sector organisation could construct.

    And Pyne is an idiot….

  • 121
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

    @genericleftist: Grassroots independent in with a chance of beating Sophie Mirabella has launched a crowdfunding campaign. #ausvotes http://t.co/7VJVxtIWSb

  • 122
    Kinkajou
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

    sex appeal

    please give generously

  • 123
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:01 pm | Permalink

    “@nickharmsen: Holden’s Adelaide workforce vote YES to wage freeze and cut to conditions #saparli #adelaide”

  • 124
    Kinkajou
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

    Duck

    ….ow!!!. Should clear a passage

  • 125
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

    Abbott wins Dio’s iDIOt of the Day Award on consecutive days.

    "They're young, they're feisty," Mr Abbott said. "I can probably say they have a bit of sex appeal. And are just very very connected with the local area".

    That comment is wRONg on so many levels its ridiculous.

  • 126
    crikey whitey
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

    Holden at Elizabeth a goer!

    Wage freeze agreed to, future ‘guaranteed’!

  • 127
    Marrickville Mauler
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

    William # 113 – errk, the fact that its accompanied by an ad for plumbing repair is pretty special

    Don’t think people should be rating the candidate’s appeal of course when there is so much to deride about the LOTO’s going there? … to be hoped that she was embarrassed too

  • 128
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

    Crikey

    One Qualification. LNP has to continue funding.

  • 129
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

    CW – GMH will only say after they’ve negotiated with whoever wins Govt.

    They’ve been explicit on that.

  • 130
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

    William, for some reason I didn’t spot you as an EpicFail blog fan. :-)

  • 131
    Marrickville Mauler
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:11 pm | Permalink

    And Pyne is an idiot….

    Outsider, sounds like one of those phrases to be repeated often like “Furthermore Carthage must be destroyed” or “and ‘Pearl Harbour’ sucks ” …

  • 132
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    Fran – Q+A last night was a good one, believe me. Pyne acts on screen just like he does in question time, ie like a complete twat.

  • 133
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

    @joshgnosis: The Daily Show segment on the Australian election. http://t.co/blvAZy8om3

  • 134
    crikey whitey
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

    It was practically incitement to riot on 5AA this afternoon.

    Over whether Holden should be subsidised or not. Even had an allegedly Holden worker FFS calling in to talk against subsidy!

    On for old and old.

  • 135
    Kinkajou
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

    Duck

    hmm Abbotts new found interest in tunnels….could be useful on the eastwest

  • 136
    crikey whitey
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

    Nicely wedged, Guytaur!

    Check.

  • 137
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:15 pm | Permalink

    GMH workers accept pay cut and conditions changes.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-13/holden-workers-vote-on-pay-proposal/4884158
    BUT there are some interesting contingent conditions attached.

  • 138
    crikey whitey
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    Thanks, Ctar. Didn’t hear that. Still a wedge for LNP, is it not?

  • 139
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes:

    That comment {I can probably say they have a bit of sex appeal} is wRONg on so many levels it's ridiculous.

    I’m interested in the qualifications, “probably” and “a bit of”. They sound as if he knew even as he was saying it, that it was inappropriate, and sought to soften the remarks even though he was unable to do the right thing and simply bite his tongue. Sometimes, it’s the little things that give people away.

  • 140
    Outsider
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    How Pyne acts on screen and in QT is not a put on. He’s always like that because he is a twat.

  • 141
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    The Speers program just hilighted Abbotts daughter not being too impressed with his latest gaffe.
    Poor Margie.

  • 142
    crikey whitey
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    BK?

    Your thoughts, please.

  • 143
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:19 pm | Permalink

    Sex appeal of a hamburger bun.
    http://resources2.news.com.au/images/2013/04/04/1226612/481718-fiona-scott-penrith.jpg

    She would knock Kelly O’Bigmouth off her perch!

  • 144
    sprocket_
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:19 pm | Permalink

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 44s Curious that Mr Abbott ignored Fiona Scott's MBA & small business credentials when discussing the merits of her candidacy for Lindsay

    sounds like a Woman of Calibre

  • 145
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:22 pm | Permalink

    crikey
    This represents an average 6% reduction in pay over the next three years. Peanuts in the cheme of things, really. What I don’t know yet are the changes to working conditions, etc. But from what I heard from John Camillo, the union head, the agree ment is contingent upon Holden committing to the next generation Cruze and Commodore vehicles.
    So it’s not a done deal necessarily.

  • 146
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    CW – Fiddling with FBT is a very much less than removing all subsidies if I understand it.

  • 147
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:24 pm | Permalink

    Sprocket

    sounds like a Woman of Calibre

    Interestingly, the word “calibre” is one of a relative handful of borrowings in English from Arabic — here a ‘ qalib ‘ was a metal form for casting bullets.

  • 148
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:24 pm | Permalink

    @BK/145

    Yes and that’s why they need goverment support.

  • 149
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord
    Direct labour hourly rate is a small bit player in the big picture. Always has been and always will be.

  • 150
    crikey whitey
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

    Thanks for that. I have to go again. Back later.

    Keep my seat.

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