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Federal Election 2013

Aug 13, 2013

Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slightly better news for Labor from Essential Research, which records essentially no change on last week and has Kevin Rudd maintaining a solid lead as preferred prime minister.

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Essential Research’s weekly rolling average bucks the trend just slightly in having Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, although the point comes at the expense of the Greens who are down one to 8%, with the Coalition steady on 43%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 51-49. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have also failed to improve, contrary to other recent polling, his approval down two to 37% and disapproval steady at 51%. Kevin Rudd’s ratings tell a more familiar story however, his approval down five to 45% and disapproval up eight to 43%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 50-35 to 47-35.

As it occasionally does, Essential poses a question more concerned with measuring knowledge in opinion: in this case, 25% think Australia’s national debt is higher compared to other developed countries while 46% say it’s lower, with Coalition voters about evenly divided. Forty-eight per cent rate reducing debt more important than maintaining spending on services and projects against 40% who think the opposite. Forty-five per cent would prefer the government cut spending to reduce debt against only 6% who would prefer taxes be raised, with 21% opting for both and 18% for neither. Foreign aid, the arts, subsidies for business and private schools top the list of preferred targets for cuts, with roads, public schools, pensions and health at the bottom.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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855 comments

855 thoughts on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

  1. zoidlord

    @morpheus/803

    Think your words are abit “aggressive” or more like “angry-driven”.

  2. Player One

    [ The double standards here are astonishing. ]

    So, like Mick, you would naturally concede that your own arguments demonstrate that neither Abbott nor Rudd are fit to be PM?

  3. liyana

    Will never understand the Green hate….and I’m going to bed before there’s an argument…

  4. Mick77

    [Will never understand the Green hate]
    No argument – just accept it

  5. lefty e

    [Exactly, Greens are minor party like National Party.]

    Well, except that the GRNs get more than 3 times the vote that the Nats do. 🙂

  6. Mick77

    P1
    [So, like Mick, you would naturally concede that your own arguments demonstrate that neither Abbott nor Rudd are fit to be PM?]
    How did you conclude that? Nothing wrong with Abbott however Rudd is a lying, cheating, earwax eating egomaniacal fake. Does that clarify my views?

  7. zoidlord

    @Mick77/811

    Double standards are showing……

  8. Player One

    [ How did you conclude that? Nothing wrong with Abbott however Rudd is a lying, cheating, earwax eating egomaniacal fake. Does that clarify my views? ]

    Double standards clarified excellently – thanks.

  9. Mick77

    [Well, except that the GRNs get more than 3 times the vote that the Nats do]
    Not on a weighted IQ basis and besides, a vote for Nats is a vote for LNP and a vote for Greens is a vote for Labs in most cases. However some lefties think that they are somehow protesting against Labor by voting Green and feel better about themselves and then you end up with a whole lot of galahs in the Senate. Keep away from ’em lefty.

  10. crikey whitey

    Back at last.

    What is the first remark I happen to see.

    The infantile, odious, anally retentive, repetitious gurgling of the Mod Squad.

    Disgusting!

  11. Mick77

    Double standards?
    If Abbott were a lying, cheating, earwax eating egomaniacal fake, I wouldn’t want him either. I hold them both to the same standard.

  12. lefty e

    [And a vote for Greens is a vote for Labs in most cases.]

    But I thoguh a vote for the Libs is a vote for Labor after Abbott’s announcement today Mick :p

  13. morpheus

    Player One @807

    Damn right I don’t. They are both pathetic morons. The scary thing is that if Kevin does get elected again as PM his megalomania and psychosis will go into overdrive. Imagine how his ego will be behave then. The only palatable thing about the coalition is that there is a good chance Abbott could get rolled and we get Turnball.

  14. zoidlord

    @Mick77/816

    Except he did everything else in the last week to make up for that.

    So thanks for playing.

  15. morpheus

    Even worse, if Kevin has a heart attack then we get that special ED student, Albanese.

  16. crikey whitey

    Player One.

    Nice thing. Happy to report.

    A friend gave me two Opera tickets tonight.

    Dress Circle, prime seats. La Forza del Destino.

  17. morpheus

    How short are our memories. And in Crikey FFS.

    “December 28, 2005 – 3:45PM

    Former Labor Senate leader John Faulkner and Labor health spokeswoman Julia Gillard have been declared Australia’s sexiest politicians.

    In a straw poll of readers conducted by the political website crikey.com.au, Senator Faulkner was selected hands down as sexiest male politician of 2005.”

  18. Mick77

    lefty
    [But I thoguh a vote for the Libs is a vote for Labor after Abbott’s announcement today Mick]
    It’s called preferences and it’s designed to destroy the watermelons and hopefully Rudd will have the sense to preference Libs. Check AEC website on how it works.
    G’nite

  19. morpheus

    And this

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/kate-the-sexiest-of-them-all/story-e6freooo-1111117913473

    “KATE Ellis, the vivacious federal Minister for Youth and Sport, has been chosen as Australia’s sexiest MP in a poll of her political peers.”

    How many PB drones were in overdrive faux outrage over that ?

  20. Mick77

    Morpheus
    [The only palatable thing about the coalition is that there is a good chance Abbott could get rolled and we get Turnball.]
    In your dreams … snore

  21. zoidlord

    @Morpheus/822

    I see you have now use the “grassing at straws” technique.

    This is ordinary people vs politicians making unprofessional comments to others.

  22. morpheus

    And Messiah Kevin in the role of sexist, misogynist pig..

    “Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has angered feminists after making ‘sexist’ remarks to a female reporter who turned up at a press conference wearing a fedora hat, a white shirt and a long grey tie.

    Instead of answering journalist Latika Bourke’s serious question about why his flagging leadership is ‘in crisis’, the Labour leader gazed up and down at her clothing before giving a bizarre response.

    He said: ‘Well, that’s a point of language which you have used which is dramatically consistent with the dress which you have chosen today.’

    Miss Bourke refused to comment on Mr Rudd’s remarks today…”

    Again, the silence was deafening.

  23. Player One

    Mick:

    [ I hold them both to the same standard. ]

    morpheus:

    [ They are both pathetic morons. ]

    Sounds like Boerwar is going to pick up a few more votes for his “Informal Party”. Pretty soon, William may have to give him his own entry on BludgerTrack.

  24. morpheus

    zoidlord @826

    Really

    http://youtu.be/BSfRP-zifnw

  25. morpheus

    Player One @828

    Unlike many of the PB drones I don’t get my voting intention from Twitter. I can actually think for myself.

  26. Player One

    crikey whitey@821

    Player One.

    Nice thing. Happy to report.

    A friend gave me two Opera tickets tonight.

    Dress Circle, prime seats. La Forza del Destino.

    Sounds like your grass is getting a little greener 🙂

    Enjoy!

  27. Mick77

    [“KATE Ellis, the vivacious federal Minister for Youth and Sport, has been chosen as Australia’s sexiest MP in a poll of her political peers.”]
    OMG how sexist, mysogynist, hateful, demeaning,retrograde, old-world, politically incorrect, image-killing is this. Labor-Green rules for PC in 2013 specifically state that no woman shall be viewed as a thing of beauty. I mean the whole of the PB site tonight drove home this point to me. This is disgusting .. she may only be described as ugly and that’s that!

  28. lefty e

    [It’s called preferences and it’s designed to destroy the watermelons and hopefully Rudd will have the sense to preference Libs]

    Its not in the interests of the ALP to preference the LNP, so that wont be happening Mick. Check AEC on how Senators get elected.

    I now suspect Bandt’s PV will be high enough that it wont matter in Melbourne, by the way, so its very likely to have been pointless.

    That is, aside from giving the satisfaction of pointing out to you that a vote for the LNP ACTUALLY IS s a vote for Labor in all seats you cant win. So on balance, a net positive for me – thank you 🙂

  29. Tom the first and best

    814

    Of course, when weighting for IQ, the party lead by Warren Truss gets about a tenth of the Green vote.

  30. zoidlord

    @morpheus/829

    I think you guys used every single thing from 2007 strip club with Kevin Rudd to 2013.

  31. crikey whitey

    Player One.

    The lovely donor is aware of our efforts.

    Well done.

  32. Kevin Bonham

    Mick77@805

    Kevin

    Fix the date in brackets at start of today’s blog from 6 Aug! I posted this before but you or William didn’t notice.

    Ta. Got that one. Also had the date wrong at the top and fixed that too.

    Quite a lot of my articles have typos. My partner catches them usually.

  33. cud chewer

    lefty I read somewhere recently that the polls say Labor is ahead of Bandt on PV. So it basically boils down to where the Libs preferences flow and I can’t imagine them preferencing Green. If you have better info please share.

  34. imacca

    [Its not in the interests of the ALP to preference the LNP, so that wont be happening Mick. Check AEC on how Senators get elected.]

    True. :monkey: may regret going hard on the Greens at this stage of the campaign. It will appeal to people who were already going to vote LNP sure, but they aren’t the people he needs to appeal to. Now that :monkey: has shown his cards on this ALP now has much latitude to do as they will with preferences to their best electoral advantage. 🙂

    Seems to me its just another expression of the “we have this in the bag” attitude, much like his blatherings on not leading a Govt in a hung parliament.

    Then he was basically saying he had no respect for the electorates choice (properly made at a free and fair election) unless they chose him. That sort of disrespect for the voter annoys me.

  35. geoffrey

    ah tomorrow springs promises of the unhinging. slow and steady wins … and at end of day that is what the great public want for a change. not a braying untamed unpedigreed prancer

  36. Player One

    [ I mean the whole of the PB site tonight drove home this point to me. ]

    But again you seem to have missed it. You’re either a hopeless case or you are being deliberately obtuse.

  37. geoffrey

    Seems to me its just another expression of the “we have this in the bag” attitude, much like his blatherings on not leading a Govt in a hung parliament.

    Then he was basically saying he had no respect for the electorates choice (properly made at a free and fair election) unless they chose him. That sort of disrespect for the voter annoys me.

    —–

    indeed. and its been like this for a very long time the patronising ex catholic dark angel (no insults to other good souls)

  38. Mick77

    CC
    It’s reported that Abbott tomorrow will announce that Greens will be preferenced below Labor everywhere. IMO this is an important and very principled stand and it means that Greens are wiped out in HoR. Better a Labor member than a watermelon. If Labor has principles it will also put Greens below the Libs.

  39. Player One

    [Seems to me its just another expression of the “we have this in the bag” attitude, much like his blatherings on not leading a Govt in a hung parliament. ]

    More likely Abbott (or Credlin) knows how stupid his willingness to “sell his arse” made him look last time, and also how it demonstrated his complete inability to negotiate, even from a position of strength.

    No way does he want that to happen again. He’d probably rather lose outright.

    From my perspective, another hung parliament sounds like the best possible outcome for this election. No way either Abbott would be able to successfully negotiate a workable minority government, so someone else would have to step up to do so. Turnbull could probably do it.

  40. imacca

    [IMO this is an important and very principled stand and it means that Greens are wiped out in HoR.]

    In that it will mainly appeal to the small terminally grumpy true disbeliever demographic who were already going to vote Coalition (since they are sure that :monkey: is actually lying about Direct Inaction), who cares??

    You have to remember that while the Greens annoy many ALP voters (particularly here 🙂 )they are a lot less fruitcake like than the current Coalition (BB Bernardi anyone??) and anyway, why would the ALP want to annoy the roughly 70% of Greens voters who usually preference the ALP?? Hey, they may pick up some preferences from the 30% who dont now. 🙂

  41. lefty e

    There’s a very good case that if Labor has principles it would go near the LNP with a barge pole Mick.

    But of course since electoral pragmatics rule out preferencing the LNP anyway, we needn’t go into it.

  42. imacca

    [another hung parliament sounds like the best possible outcome for this election.]

    If Oakeshott and Windsor were still contenders i’d agree, but with them out of it, i’m not so sure. I think when the history of this parliament gets written they will get a lot of the credit, along with Gillard, for making the hung parliament work, as it did very well.

  43. lefty e

    Cud chewer, I heard that Bandts PV was getting large of late, but it was second hand and I really couldn’t vouch for the info.

  44. Kevin Bonham

    lefty e@848

    Cud chewer, I heard that Bandts PV was getting large of late, but it was second hand and I really couldn’t vouch for the info.

    Possibly derived from the Greens’ dodgy Galaxy. There might be other evidence out there though.

  45. zoidlord

    @Kevin/850

    Is it because it was commissioned for Green’s Party that it is ‘dodgy’?

    What is the current PV for Bandts?

  46. Kevin Bonham

    zoidlord@851

    @Kevin/850

    Is it because it was commissioned for Green’s Party that it is ‘dodgy’?

    What is the current PV for Bandts?

    Not just the commissioning, but the wording of questions has not been released publicly. Plus there were reports of a poll being conducted without party names listed (only candidates) at the same time, that was attributed to Galaxy.

    I have no idea what Bandt’s current PV is because there have only been internal polls, nothing public. The Labor one said he was on 33.9 and the Green one 48. The former seems more consistent with the general decline in the Green vote but it’s always possible Bandt is punching above that.

  47. zoidlord

    @Kevin/852

    Ah ok Thanks for that.

  48. mari

    OMG just come home about to go out again is it safe to venture onto PB? Looks like all the LNP drones have finally gone to sleep although havn’t see River yet 😀 mayby the Workchoice serf rates wern’t enough to keep him? at Menzies House?

    BTW The stitching on my bag has just come apart after a lot of good service, had anyone heard of Carlton or Tripp bags seems I can get good deals on both of them, but can’t find comparisons like I can in Oz over here so any info wold be appreciated for when I wake up in the morning