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Federal Election 2013

Aug 14, 2013

Election guide and BludgerTrack review

The Poll Bludger's guide to the 150 House of Representatives electorates is now in business. Also featured: a closer look at the BludgerTrack poll aggregate's movements since the start of the campaign.

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The Poll Bludger’s federal election guide is now live and accessible from the link on the sidebar. Featured are profiles of all 150 House of Representatives electorates, in one shape or another. Comprehensive profiles are featured for Labor seats up to around 12% in margin and Coalition seats up to around 3%. Much of the content will be familiar to those of you who have been following Seat of the Week over the past year, although ongoing political tumult has required a considerable amount of revision. Things remain to be fleshed out for some of the safe Labor seats and a lot of the non-marginal Coalition ones, but at the very least each page comes equipped with candidate lists and graphics showing census results and voting history.

A review of BludgerTrack is in order while I’m here, as we now have a full week of campaign polling after yesterday’s slightly delayed publication of Essential Reserch. It’s clear that the evenly matched polling which followed the return of Kevin Rudd, and which was starting to look alarmingly sticky from a Coalition perspective, has unpeeled over the past fortnight. Close observation suggests this has not entirely been a phenomenon of the election campaign, the Coalition having already pulled ahead over the weekend of an election date announcement which came on the Sunday, after much of the polling had already been conducted. Aggregating the polling over the period has the Coalition already a shade over 51% on two-party preferred, to which they added perhaps a little under 1% over the first week of the campaign. The Greens seem to have made a neglible dividend out of the government’s harder line, their vote being stuck in the 8% to 9% range on BludgerTrack since the beginning of June.

Looking at the progress of state breakdowns over that time, the outstanding change is a 4% swing away from Labor in all-important Queensland, consistent with the notion of a “sugar hit” that got added impetus from a home-state feel-good factor, and is now fading across the board. After showing as many as six gains for Labor in Queensland in the weeks after Rudd’s return, Labor’s yield on the BludgerTrack projection is now at zero, and briefly fell into the negative. So it’s not hard to imagine that Labor strategy meetings last week might have been spent contemplating ways to hold back the Queensland tide, and easy to understand why the name of Peter Beattie might have come up. The most recent data points suggest this may indeed have improved Labor’s position by as much as 3%, but it will be a bit longer before this shows up on BludgerTrack, if indeed it doesn’t prove illusory.

Elsewhere, Labor support looks to have come off to the tune of 1%-2% in New South Wales and South Australia and perhaps slightly less in Victoria. The interesting exception is Western Australia, where there has essentially been no change on a result which has Labor well in the hunt to poach two Liberal seats. The main political story out of the west over this period has been hostile reaction to a post-election state budget highlighted the a bungled cut to an excessively popular solar panel subsidy scheme. This has made the Barnett government the target of public attacks from federal MPs who have been open in their concern about federal electoral impacts. It may perhaps be worth noting that Western Australia is the only state without a daily News Limited tabloid.

A Newspoll result on best party to handle asylum seekers has been the most interesting item of attitudinal polling to emerge over the past week, since a point of comparison is available from a few weeks ago rather than the pre-history of the Gillard era. Whereas the Coalition fell on this measure from from 47% to 33% after the government announced its Papua New Guinea solution, the latest poll has it back up to 42%. Labor has nonetheless maintained its gain from the previous poll, having progressed from 20% to 26% to 27%, with the slack coming from “another party” and “don’t know”. Even so, the re-establishment of a solid double-digit lead to the Coalition is interesting, and a challenge to the notion that the recent poll move away from Labor has entirely been down to a “fading sugar hit”.

UPDATE (Morgan phone poll): Morgan has a small-sample phone poll of 569 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday night which headlines results on personal ratings, but if you burrow into the detail there’s a wildly off-trend result on voting intention with the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 52% for the Coalition, 31% for Labor and 9% for the Greens. Reflecting what was obviously a bad sample for Labor, the poll has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister narrowing to 46-43 from 52-36 at the last such poll a month ago. Rudd is down five on approval to 40% and up nine on disapproval to 49%, while Abbott is up four to 42% and down six to 48%.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2674 comments

2,674 thoughts on “Election guide and BludgerTrack review

  1. Mick77

    Rosemour
    If that really is your site then you’re far too intelligent and educated to be in among the Labor rabble on PB. No wonder they give you a hard time … they don’t handle realism very well.

  2. Carey Moore

    [Carey I fear you have a raging case of Timidiosis politicosis pissweakitis.
    Is there a rash or just the fever?]

    No, I live in Reality. Join it some time.

  3. Rosemour or Less

    mari

    I’m 57 and I’m a green/labor….labor/grenn voter have been for years. I have nothing to hide.
    How about you?

  4. lefty e

    So, Beattie a clear favourite to win Forde.

    Can’t really say I’m shocked.

    [Beattie’s odds in Forde are now around what the previous ALP’s candidate’s odds were, so good captain’s pick there. (1.55/2.30 ALP/LNP)]

    Mostly false: They were 1.75/ 1.95 before Beattie. And Tab has it 1.4 to 2.8 actually 🙂

    Speaking of politifact: the rate Rudd’s claim that the Federal govt can change GST without the states “true”.

  5. Carey Moore

    [If that really is your site then you’re far too intelligent and educated to be in among the Labor rabble on PB. No wonder they give you a hard time … they don’t handle realism very well.]

    Give it a rest!

  6. Rosemour or Less

    Carey
    You have the derlirium as well!
    This is serious.
    Make an appointment with Guru Bruce this very minute!

  7. Rosemour or Less

    Carey
    It’s not my site it’s the University of Tasmnaia’s site.
    I am but a humle servant of academe.

  8. Rosemour or Less

    Sorry Carey I meant Mick77

    Sorry Mick77

    Carey
    Give it a rest.

  9. Mick77

    Carey 2379

    I was addressing Rosemour not you. We haven’t seen your website.

  10. mari

    Rosie or less

    WOW is this a you dare I dare, I am an old duck who enjoys life and dread to think what will happen if Abbott gets in, Off now for my final lunch before I leave Scotland

  11. Rosemour or Less

    Mick77

    Sweet.

  12. Fran Barlow

    CareyMoore:

    [That snarky one liner wouldn’t work, Rosemour. Abbott would just deny what he said and it would turn into a bout of “he said/she said” negative politics, which he will look like the victim of.]

    I disagree on general grounds. I hear this “but the opposition will jst say that …” line so often and it’s entirely unimpressive.

    Of course if someone takes a swing that in their opinion stands to prejudice their standing within audiences they think they will need, they are going to try a rebuttal of some kind. This doesn’t mean it will work, where work means “neutralise all reputational harm”.

    In practice, very few rebuttals ever achieve that — which is why the LNP have gone non-stop at the regime with negative campaigning for the last 3 years. The regime hasd tried rebutting but it clearly hasn’t entirely worked. Some of the mud has stuck — admittedly in part because you know who started pretending he was Peter Beattie, but with the Murdoch led press in the other corner.

    Even rebuttals that do neutralise damage temporarily won’t do it permanently, so it’s still worth doing. If an analogous incident arises or the complaint is still in public discourse, then this looks like a pattern — hence the sexism attack. These things can define Abbott as a sexist as surely as Gillard was defined as a liar and double dealer, and every subsequent attack turned on that.

    There simply is no appreciable downside to doing stuff like this, because in this case, the attack can be shown to be germane, given the LNP’s disinclination to release their costings — “the carefully written down stuff”.

  13. CTar1

    Carey is sure that he’s more objective than any other poster.

    A real clear thinker …

  14. Rosemour or Less

    Mari
    Have a great trip!

  15. Rosemour or Less

    Carey

    What Fran said.

  16. Mick77

    Mari
    [WOW is this a you dare I dare, I am an old duck who enjoys life and dread to think what will happen if Abbott gets in, Off now for my final lunch before I leave Scotland]
    Maybe you oughta stay on in Scotland if that’s the way you feel.

  17. Carey Moore

    The fact of the matter is simple:

    – The Government’s record in the last three years, at least in public perception, is dire. What with musical chairs leadership and unpopular policies such as the carbon tax.

    – So far Rudd has been light on any bloody substance, preferring instead to try and rely on some celebrity status which is rapidly fading away because a) he is not the greener grass on the other side and b) voters actually start caring about issues at elections.

    – Labor’s resources are severely limited which means limited advertising and the logistics of campaigning becomes harder. The Coalition, on the other hand, have a huge piggy bank at their disposal.

    – The vibe, believe it or not is “It’s time!” and everybody knows it. One of the reasons the Murdoch papers blatently chose sides is they knew that’s what the readers want to see.

    – As the election is slipping away, the desperation is showing among Labor, making them do some ill-advised things.

    There are other factors but one thing is for certain: they are not losing because they’ve neglected to dig up a gaffe from early 2010!

  18. Carey Moore

    The fact that you’re making cheesy insults shows how flawed your argument is, Rosemour.

  19. Sean Tisme

    Word around town is that Nielsen has a Coalition Primary with a 5 in front of it

  20. confessions

    [We haven’t seen your website.]

    If you click on his name you can.

  21. Carey Moore

    That blog’s been abandoned for years. I am too lazy to take it down (rather, I’ve forgotten the login info). If Crikey allowed me to edit my damn profile, I’d remove the link.

  22. mari

    Just before I go Thank you Rosemour I am having a good trip
    but coming to an end now, will be pleased to gt back to OZ
    after Dubai

    MICK77

    Simple question is why should I stay in Scotland, I assume because I don’t agree with what you say? Toughen up Micky! 😀

    OK now off

  23. mikehilliard

    OK, the review of Leigh Sales interview is obviously needed.

    Ahem .. throat clearing moment here.

    Mr Abbott was at odds tonight to answer questions on his policy position & costings. Just 23 days out from the election it is still as close to impossible for the average voter to have a clear idea of what the Coalition government is prepared to axe in order to pay for it’s over commitment to big business & the Murdoch press. The ill health of the leader of the opposition, evident in tonight’s appearance will come as a major concern to the loyal Liberal voters as without his single minded determination to wreck the joint & push through one of the most negative campaigns in Australia’s history all is lost. The next 2 weeks will be a trying ordeal for Mr Abbott as he try’s to convince the public that he has a better offer or indeed anything to offer at all.

  24. davidwh

    Sean yes we already heard.

  25. Mick77

    Rosemour & Carey
    I’ve no idea who was saying what to whom at the end of the confusion, but my first post to Rosemour @ 2375 stands.

    And on a serious note you have a very noble occupation, and obvious talent; good on yer. And you’re also a reasonable double for Billy Connolly. Just a shame about your politics!

  26. confessions

    Carey @ 2391:

    Well said!

    Simon Jackman concludes in his latest:

    [But even if we assume that collectively the polling industry is totally unbiased, with pollster-specific biases “averaging out” to zero, we get only a slightly higher estimate of Labor vote share: 49.2% +/- 1.1pp, corresponding to a 4% probability that Labor is outperforming its 2010 result (50.12% TPP).

    Under either set of assumptions, current polling points to the Coalition almost surely winning. The polls would have to be wrong in a way that we haven’t seen in previous Australian election cycles for any other conclusion to hold.]
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/the-swing/2013/aug/14/polls-easy-coalition-win-wrong?CMP=twt_gu

  27. Mick77

    Mari

    I was just helping you with some ideas to avoid angst since you wrote:
    [dread to think what will happen if Abbott gets in]
    which he will.

  28. Carey Moore

    I apologise Mick. I thought the “rusted on ALP” comment was directed at me because of Rosemour’s and my disagreement.

    Because right now nothing could be further from the truth (I am really over Rudd and the damn party)

  29. Rosemour or Less

    Mari

    I think Mickk77 meant you might be happier there.
    Abbott won’t be Prime minister of Scotland.

  30. Fran Barlow

    ST:

    [Word around town is that …]

    What does that phrase even mean? Does one touch the side of the nose with an index finger and raise an eyebrow when saying it?

    One does have to laugh at trolling like this. If you have something, then spill it. If not, then you get to be the suppository of wisdom, in something like the literal sense.

  31. Sean Tisme

    People are starting to wake up to the reality that Rudd is a fraud.

    At least with Abbott you know the dickhead is real. Rudd is the dickhead in sheeps clothing

  32. confessions

    The govt rhetoric of ‘cut, cut, cut to the bone’ ridiculed by Mark Simpkin on ABC news.

  33. Mick77

    Rosemour & Carey
    Your last posts are too nice to me. I’m beginning to feel guilty for some of my rants ( … just a little).

  34. Rosemour or Less

    Sean

    You mean like a woolie condom?

  35. Rosemour or Less

    Mick77

    Wanker.
    (is that better?)

  36. davidwh

    Fran we have never before received 24 hours advanced information on a Nielsen and today we are blessed with two independent sources. It must be our lucky day.

  37. Carey Moore

    [Your last posts are too nice to me. I’m beginning to feel guilty for some of my rants ( … just a little).]

    Don’t worry, my say or Meguire Bob will give you some new targets! 😉

  38. zoidlord

    Interesting.

    Some people on PB getting aggressive.

  39. adrian

    ‘The govt rhetoric of ‘cut, cut, cut to the bone’ ridiculed by Mark Simpkin on ABC news.’

    What is the point of posting this?

    Mark Simkin is a serial ridiculer of anything Labor does, so what is your point?

  40. Mick77

    Rosemour 2409
    Tks – yes I feel better already

  41. mikehilliard

    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

    Interesting.

    Some people on PB getting aggressive.
    ————————————-

    Weird would be more like it.

  42. Fran Barlow

    They are both frauds Sean. Their fraudulent and dissmebling entreaties appeal to slightly different tranches of the audience.

    In the case of the incumbent, he is burdened with system constraints that limit the salience of his dissembling, whereas at this stage, his opponent is not so burdened and so has greater discretion, as he has shwon by riding rough-shod over Hockey, amongst others. It seems very clear that he wants to avoid all scrutiny of his actual spending and cuts programs or the correspondence of his mooted aims with observable reality.

    So, a conservative and xenophobic voter can choose between a fraud whose policies are a known quantity with a known program with known costs, or one without the latter, who is also openly, recklessly boorish.

  43. confessions

    [Fran we have never before received 24 hours advanced information on a Nielsen and today we are blessed with two independent sources. It must be our lucky day.]

    😆

    Love it.

  44. paaptsef

    word on the street is that some folks are so despairing about Abbott’s campaign that they’ve starting posting fake poll results on the internet

  45. DisplayName

    They may both be frauds, but electing them will not produce the same result.

  46. Edward StJohn

    Cheer up Fainthearts

  47. zoidlord

    For those that want a replay:

    abc730 ‏@abc730 22m

    If you missed it, WATCH tonight’s #abc730 interview with @TonyAbbottMHR: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZS8IR2nIL4&feature=share&list=PL50041EDF1BD4BF41 … #ausvotes
    Retweeted by Leigh Sales

  48. confessions

    Labor’s new candidate in O’Connor who I have said in the past I will be campaigning for:

    [Mr Salt is currently the North West official at the Australian Manufacturers and Workers Union and lives in Newman in the Pilbara.

    He said he would move to a location in O’Connor if elected.

    “I know the O’Connor region quite well, I’ve travelled through there many times, I’m a previous resident of Coolgardie and I’ve spent a great deal of time in most of the regions throughout the electorate.]

    How will he campaign for O’Connor from Newman? A FIFO candidate?

    When the Liberals preselected their candidate for Durack state Labor MPs were tweeting about how dreadful it was that she didn’t live in the electorate. I guess that will stop now.

    http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2013/08/09/3822294.htm

  49. Rosemour or Less

    PBers, some here need to engage their sense of humour.
    The dark days ahead are going to be testing.

    We may not have a strategy to win the election but we should have one in place to help the weaker amongst us deal with the spectacle of Abbott and his suporters’ triumphalism on election night.

    I suggest looking away. Early.

  50. DisplayName

    At least you don’t appear totally unhuggable, Rosemour :P.

  51. mikehilliard

    fran@2416 – having decoded your post I think in general I agree with what you are saying.

  52. Edward StJohn

    It will be necessary for the national healing.

  53. Tom the first and best

    2393

    The Coalition is polling at 5%? I hope they drop over 1% so the loose their deposits.

  54. Rosemour or Less

    Rosemour the Huggable…?

  55. mikehilliard

    Rosemour – The dark days ahead are going to be testing.
    ————————————————–
    Winter is coming???? This is a real life event, not Game of Thrones.

  56. AussieAchmed

    Barnett govt has not just back flipped on solar power – its breached public’s trust. Broken promises also on RPH, medical research

    expect these problems if we get federal Liberals

  57. confessions

    I met Chub Witham today and was somewhat impressed with him. He is far more engaging and capable of conversation than the Liberal candidate.

    FWIW.

  58. Edward StJohn

    Kudos to the Gillard camp for not leaking ………….. yet

  59. Dr Fumbles McStupid

    @Tom the first and best

    No the primary had a 5 in it not just 5% – so maybe 15%

  60. matt31

    I would have thought Nielsen would have been in the field again tonight? Wasn’t it Tuesday-Thursday evenings last week?

  61. Carey Moore

    You’ll all be alright. Fortunately we have a system that ensures that very little that is too extreme gets through and, on the occasion it does, the voters punish the government for it.

  62. Bugler

    Carey Moore 2391,

    [The fact of the matter is simple:

    – The Government’s record in the last three years, at least in public perception, is dire. What with musical chairs leadership and unpopular policies such as the carbon tax.

    – So far Rudd has been light on any bloody substance, preferring instead to try and rely on some celebrity status which is rapidly fading away because a) he is not the greener grass on the other side and b) voters actually start caring about issues at elections.

    – Labor’s resources are severely limited which means limited advertising and the logistics of campaigning becomes harder. The Coalition, on the other hand, have a huge piggy bank at their disposal.

    – The vibe, believe it or not is “It’s time!” and everybody knows it. One of the reasons the Murdoch papers blatently chose sides is they knew that’s what the readers want to see.

    – As the election is slipping away, the desperation is showing among Labor, making them do some ill-advised things.

    There are other factors but one thing is for certain: they are not losing because they’ve neglected to dig up a gaffe from early 2010!]

    I’d agree with that. Another worrying/disappointing thing I’ve heard is that Labor isn’t spending many resources in Victoria. The Labor candidate for Casey, Cathy Farrel, is apparently rather disheartened at the lack of assistance she is being given to win a marginal Liberal electorate.

    It is also quite obvious how much larger the Liberal war chest. Not entirely sure how spamming like mad is meant to entice someone to vote for you, but points for effort, I guess.

  63. Carey Moore

    [Kudos to the Gillard camp for not leaking ………….. yet]

    She won’t leak but I do hope that, after the election is over, she actually starts speaking out candidly about her time in the top job. Bet she’ll have a “conversion” on same sex marriage, similar to Mike Rann on exit.

  64. zoidlord

    @Burgler/2436

    So where are the unions coming out on Workchoices?

  65. Edward StJohn

    Gillard will be fine Carey.

  66. mexicanbeemer

    According to the Guardian chose your PM game i am

    50% Kevin Rudd
    30% Tony Abbott
    20% Christine Milne

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/interactive/2013/aug/15/prime-minister-machine-australian-pm

  67. mikehilliard

    @2436 – Not entirely sure how spamming like mad is meant to entice someone to vote for you, but points for effort, I guess.
    ———————————

    The typical cop out comment you would expect these days.

  68. smallvox

    I think Abbott’s interview on 7.30 tonight went fine for him (I’m sorry to say), especially considering he was in less than robust physical shape. There was nothing new in her questions or his answers, but there were also no gaffes, at least not by him. He got away with lots of negative comments about the Govt. While Leigh did put up the odd challenge she has certainly pulled her head in since her more confrontational interview with Rudd. I suspect she had some unwelcome feedback about that.

    As has been pointed out earlier Leigh let him get away with the porky about needing the states to agree to changing the GST (and why would they object anyway?). I think she made a more subtle clanger here:

    Abbott: The Labor Party will tell a lot of lies about [raising the GST] between now and polling day…
    Sales: That’s why I’m asking you to clarify…

    Implicitly she was agreeing with his proposition that Labor would be telling a lot of lies etc.

    I wouldn’t get my hopes up about Abbott coming down with the lurgi at this stage. He blamed the coughing on talking all day, which seems plausible, and he managed to produce his manic smile at the end with obvious relief he’d made it through the interview unscathed. Perhaps the best we can hope for is that he won’t pledge to stay awake from now till election day, just to prove he’s the fittest man to run the country.

  69. Rosemour or Less

    Mikehilliard

    ..and Winter will be hard my son….

  70. Tom the first and best

    2433

    The post I replied to said it started with a 5. 15 does not start with a 5.

  71. Edward StJohn

    And I think Rudd will come out alright too – if he takes the ALP from 40-50 seats in June to 60 odd in September he will have done well.

    Hard to imagine Abbott will be a strong PM – Labor could be back within 5 years if it doesnt tear itself apart post election.

  72. mikehilliard

    Edward – even your dog looks bored with your posts.

  73. mexicanbeemer

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/15/newstart-sole-parent-single-mothers

    This sort of story explains why the Government is trailing.

    Newstart is a joke, it should be increased.

  74. Bugler

    Zoidlord,

    I am but a hobbit from the Shire. I know not of these things.

    (I don’t think there were any union affiliated people handing stuff out at Lilydale station.)

  75. zoidlord

    @MB/2448

    Changing to Liberals won’t save Newstart, it will decreased even further.

  76. mexicanbeemer

    Zoidlord

    True but for many voters this has not been a good government economically.

  77. mikehilliard

    Mikehilliard

    ..and Winter will be hard my son….

    Actually, winter has been quite mild here spring is looking even better, cheer up.

  78. Edward StJohn

    Time for a rendition of Stop all the Clocks

  79. Silky38

    I survived Howard. I can survive Abbott. Hoping I don’t have to but it’s not looking too hot right now.

  80. zoidlord

    @MB/2451

    So how would that change for the next 4 years under a coalition Gov with rising prices?

    @Silky38/2454

    Abbott is not Howard.

    And sorry to say, Howard is no longer Minister/Senator in politics.

  81. mexicanbeemer

    I agree with ESJ, I don’t expect much from Tone.

    I suspect he will either be like Campbell Newman or Ted Ballieu.

    He might shock me and be more like Barry O’Farrell but i seriously dealt that.

  82. mikehilliard

    This is all getting a bit prosaic. Nighty night.

  83. Edward StJohn

    How long will Bob Carr remain in the Senate after the election loss?

  84. mexicanbeemer

    Zoidlord,

    I am not here defending the Liberals, all i linked the article was show that for many this Government hasn’t delivered hence why the polls are where they are.

    At this stage the voters seem more focused on what this government has done or not done rather than what the alternative is on about.

  85. mexicanbeemer

    mikehilliard

    I agree it can be difficult to be prosaic when discussing Tone

  86. Marrickville Mauler

    Silky: I worked for Ruddock as A.G. I dont think I can manage working for Brandis “SC” if it comes to it.

  87. geoffrey

    Sean Tisme
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 9:19 pm | PERMALINK
    People are starting to wake up to the reality that Rudd is a fraud.

    At least with Abbott you know the dickhead is real. Rudd is the dickhead in sheeps clothing

    —————-
    what sort of dishonest defamation is this … to attack a character for sake of it without evidence … happen to think rudd is sincere.

    ditto dont like souls above fray, whether greens or a FB. this meta judgmentalism detracts from other arguments

  88. Carey Moore

    [what sort of dishonest defamation is this … to attack a character for sake of it without evidence … ]

    In politics? Never!

  89. Player One

    Edward StJohn@2432

    Kudos to the Gillard camp for not leaking ………….. yet

    They know they don’t need to. Rudd is imploding all by himself.

    What dingbat thought a “Northern Economic Zone” would be a good idea? Gina the Hutt? Sheesh!

    The Milky Bar Kid deserves to lose.

  90. geoffrey

    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 9:16 pm | PERMALINK
    OK, the review of Leigh Sales interview is obviously needed.

    Ahem .. throat clearing moment here.

    Mr Abbott was at odds tonight to answer questions on his policy position & costings. Just 23 days out from the election it is still as close to impossible for the average voter to have a clear idea of what the Coalition government is prepared to axe in order to pay for it’s over commitment to big business & the Murdoch press. The ill health of the leader of the opposition, evident in tonight’s appearance will come as a major concern to the loyal Liberal voters as without his single minded determination to wreck the joint & push through one of the most negative campaigns in Australia’s history all is lost. The next 2 weeks will be a trying ordeal for Mr Abbott as he try’s to convince the public that he has a better offer or indeed anything to offer at all.

    thanks you. overdue of PB. and true review

  91. Rosemour or Less

    I did the guardian choose your PM quiz…10 questions and I didn’t score an Abbott once.

    Disturbingly though I agreed with Katter once.

    I’m mostly Christine’s toy boy.

  92. Thomas. Paine.

    [[b) voters actually start caring about issues at elections.]

    Ask a voter as the are going to vote to name policies from either side and they will struggle badly.

    The notion the voters care about policies isn’t true unless there is something Directly in it for them or it has pushed some emotional buttons.

    Running an election on policies is just mud wrestling…hard to see who the contestents are and who is doing best…and ultimately boring.

    Policy only go so far as to show a party is serious sensible and competent…they can produce important sounding policy.

    To want Rudd Labor to simply do just policy electioneering guarantees a loss. The public couldn’t give a toss.

    In this election the public already know Labor as Govt and policy makers. Rudd makes a more interested of course, and that is seen in the dramtic improvement in TPP because of his return.

    The fucking substance argument is off the beaten track. Rudd Labor need to get those deserting Labor voters to come back by around 1-2% and that aint going to happen with them analysing Labor’s basker of policies. If these people were interested and voted according to best policies…then of course Labor would be a mile in front.

    These people were pissed that Labor didn’t have their preferred leader for so long and hated listening to his replacement because of it. They stopped listening altogether.

    I agree Rudd needs to be out there selling policy, but not for the policy but for the look. The shows the thing and he is got to sell…but because they are well used to him it is going to take a bit more edge to the salesmanship, more dramatic and a bit more BS.

    Before the public automatically paid attention to Rudd whenver he spoke…three years of center stage, the slagging of his name and so on.. means he has to be a bit more noisy and out there to get attention.

    There needs to be an exposure of Abbott be some of the others, but it has to seem that it isn’t an attack by Labor. Feed him issues that he is likely to reveal some strange opinion …and so on..

  93. zoidlord

    @MB/2459

    Having been on Newstart I know what’s it’s like.

    I would like payments on Centerlink to be Index-based.

    But that would be disastrous, and people would really stop looking for work.

    The Goverment does not need to increase Newstart by that much, however, what they need to do, and I said before is to pay for the big things to get people into work, such as certifications, licenses, work equipment and that type of thing.

    Where people can’t abuse the centerlink payments.

  94. paaptsef

    [ Chinese zoo’s ‘African lion’ exposed when dog substitute barks

    The chief of the park’s animal department, Liu Suya, told the paper that while it does have a lion, it had been taken to a breeding facility and the dog, which belonged to an employee, had been temporarily housed in the zoo over safety concerns.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-15/hairy-dog-disguised-as-lion/4890386 ]
    more believable than Pyne’s effort yesterday

  95. Sean Tisme

    The Car Finance industry is absolutely smashing Labor with their Ad’s.

    Haven’t seen advertising this good and well funded since the Mining Tax disaster.

    Check out ninemsn website, has FBT Ad’s all over it… then on TV Tonight I’ve seen at least 2 FBT Ad’s, it’s everywhere

  96. Rosemour or Less

    I sense a distinct shift here in PBland tonight.
    I think most of know the wheels have fallen off and nothing good can come from this campaign for the ALP.
    Let’s just hope they don’t let the black dog take them walkies for too long….they might be a chance in 2022 or ’24
    frankly I don’t think I’ll care two hoots by then if I’m still around…..and by 2024 who’ll recognise the Labor party anyway. Glad we couldn’t have kids.

  97. Centre

    Mexicanbeemer @ 2451

    So why hasn’t this been a good government economically for many voters?

  98. zoidlord

    @Sean/2470

    Vested interests – pure and simple.

  99. Bugler

    TP,

    So Labor should close their eyes and whisper to themselves “I do believe in fairies” and everything will be alright? They did that and it’s not working.

  100. AussieAchmed

    Shame the car industry won’t survive past 2016 if Abbott gets elected and he removes the subsidies.

    Thousands will be out of work.

  101. Centre

    Mexicanbeemer @ 2456

    Abbott like Barry O’Farrell?

    How about more like J F Kennedy maybe 😯

  102. confessions

    [Rudd is imploding all by himself.]

    I see it as a disintegration rather than an implosion. It’s becoming clear he genuinely thought he could just coast in on his circa 2007 twee, hokey, fake nerdiness and celebrity.

    After 3 years of exhausting electioneering abuse from the coalition, voters perhaps feel entitled to expect more substance from yet another leadership change in Labor.

  103. Lynchpin

    Rosemour

    Yes, lets just run up the white flag. How spirited of you.

    Someone here mentioned Nielsen with a 5 in the front of the PV. Evidence? I call that bollocks.

    There is no doubt ALP is behind. But it ain’t over yet.

    Let’s wait and see the next round of polls before calling for the vomit bag.

  104. Silky38

    I don’t watch TV except for a bit of ABC so I haven’t seen the ads. I don’t expect the government will come up with a good ad to refute it based on there hopeless ad’s in reply to the mining industries anti mining tax ads.

  105. zoidlord

    @Confessions/2477

    It just shows the media do control elections.

  106. Centre

    Mexicanbeemer @ 2459

    Just what is it that the government hasn’t delivered exactly?

  107. AussieAchmed

    Abbott claims the carbon tax was the reason Holden/Ford are closing.

    Yet his 1.5% tax for PPL will cost them more than the carbon price, it will more to the cost of a car.

    With Abbott removing subsidies and this great big tax for PPL they are preparing to get out in case he is elected

  108. confessions

    [Shame the car industry won’t survive past 2016 if Abbott gets elected and he removes the subsidies.]

    The Member for Indi is the relevant putative minister. If that doesn’t scare the bejesus out of voters, then heaven only knows what will!

  109. Lynchpin

    Abbott is coasting.

    I couldn’t believe Sayles swallowed his crap about the GST tonight.

    Bemused, you need to give us a pep talk.

  110. Player One

    [ Just what is it that the government hasn’t delivered exactly? ]

    Trust.

  111. lefty e

    [Kudos to the Gillard camp for not leaking ………….. yet]

    LOL – they havent got anything left to leak. He’s only been PM again 6 weeks,and they chundered all the rest out ages ago.

  112. confessions

    [It just shows the media do control elections.]

    What does that mean?

  113. Centre

    What the hell is going on with you blokes?

    I thought Labor have had a good last 2 or 3 days.

    Have any further polls been released that I’m unaware of?

  114. sprocket_

    Meanwhile in QLD, move along now, nothing to see..

    [Queensland Premier Campbell Newman says a backbencher who sent a photo of his penis in a glass of wine to a mistress is doing a good job as an MP.
    Redlands MP Peter Dowling, who earlier this month stood aside as chair of parliament’s ethics committee, is also being investigated for alleged misuse of parliamentary travel privileges.
    Mr Newman says while those allegations have been referred to the clerk of parliament, his private wrongdoings do not affect his role as a politician.
    “He has served his community well,” Mr Newman told ABC Radio.

    “The media get themselves in a bit of a frenzy at times and miss the point.”]

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/sexting-mp-peter-dowling-doing-a-good-job-newman-20130815-2ry52.html#ixzz2c2ZA7g16

  115. Carey Moore

    [Shame the car industry won’t survive past 2016 if Abbott gets elected and he removes the subsidies.]

    Probably won’t anyway. Both sides of politics ought to be considering a post-auto manufacturing future in this country.

  116. zoidlord

    @confessions/2487

    Media coverage etc.

  117. Fran Barlow

    Rosemour

    It’s silly overegging. The ALP may well be out of office for more than one term, but there’s a good deal of time between now and when that becomes likely.

    I doubt an Abbott regime’s ‘honeymoon’ — if he wins — will last six months. It’s likely to be an absolute shambles and I doubt Abbott will be in charge in 2016.

    There’s some evidence that the people are now more volatile in their choices. I don’t accept that a 20-seat loss, if that occurs, will keep the ALP out of power for a decade.

    Mind you, that would be moot, given the similarity of the two parties and their contest for the stupid vote.

  118. Centre

    I think the Labor ad with that women talking about what Abbott intends to cut is very good.

    That will cut through.

    Costings and G S T mofos!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  119. cud chewer

    [Probably won’t anyway. Both sides of politics ought to be considering a post-auto manufacturing future in this country.]

    We do need a high tech manufacturing sector. It just doesn’t have to be cars.

  120. matt31

    @Sean 2470

    Tax rorting will always be easier under the Coalition.

    On the Nielsen, I call bs. Pretty sure they would still have been in the field.

  121. cud chewer

    [I doubt an Abbott regime’s ‘honeymoon’ — if he wins — will last six months. It’s likely to be an absolute shambles and I doubt Abbott will be in charge in 2016.]

    Which is precisely why Turnbull is behaving in such an unprincipled manner now.

  122. confessions

    zoidlord:

    I don’t think you understand quite what the problems are.

  123. Carey Moore

    If the last 6 years in politics have taught me anything: it’s that anything is possible. I wouldn’t even dare try to predict the election after this one, regardless of the September 7 results.

    I wouldn’t even dare say with confidence who will be leading the two parties at the next election.

  124. Rosemour or Less

    ‘I thought Labor have had a good last 2 or 3 days.’

    Beam me up Scotty.

  125. Harry "Snapper" Organs

    Of course I’m back for the campaign. We’re are in for the ride of our lives, because Tony Abbot believes in guided democracy.

  126. Carey Moore

    [We do need a high tech manufacturing sector. It just doesn’t have to be cars.]

    Agreed.

  127. Lynchpin

    Hey Sprocket, is Peter Dowling the member for Redlands or Red Glans?

  128. Player One

    [ Of course I’m back for the campaign. We’re are in for the ride of our lives, because Tony Abbot believes in guided democracy. ]

    Technically, I think it’s Pell who believes in guided democracy … and Abbott believes in Pell.

  129. zoidlord

    @confessions/2497

    I do, you were referring the Coalition Attack for the last couple of years?

  130. confessions

    [There’s some evidence that the people are now more volatile in their choices.]
    It certainly seems that way to me, perhaps amplified by the hung parliament, and the way the media has elevated the opposition to equivalent status with the govt.

  131. matt31

    @Centre 2488

    No, no more poling released. I think this place has gone nuts quite frankly. Jumping at shadows over a couple of the usual suspects claiming Nielsen has the Coalition primary with a 5 in front of it, when I suspect they would still have been in the field.

  132. Centre

    The voting intentions are not 57/43.

    At worst, very worst they’re 53/47.

    Get a grip!

    😯

  133. Rosemour or Less

    ‘I wouldn’t even dare say with confidence who will be leading the two parties at the next election.’

    Let me help.
    Tony Abbott.
    Peter Beattie.

    Oh, and Abbott will win a second term.

  134. Lynchpin

    Centre

    Sean Jisme was playing with the collective PB mind earlier by stating Nielson has a PV of 50% or better for the Coalition.

  135. Edward StJohn

    Democracy is such a precious commodity it must be rationed – Vladimir Illich Lenin

  136. confessions

    [I do, you were referring the Coalition Attack for the last couple of years?]

    In part, yes.

  137. geoffrey

    Rosemour or Less
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 10:22 pm | PERMALINK
    I sense a distinct shift here in PBland tonight.
    I think most of know the wheels have fallen off and nothing good can come from this campaign for the ALP.
    ————–
    this blog is full of liberal trolls who tire serious contributors. there is no shift roseeemooor, only distinct disinterest the liberal propaganda.

    labor will win and well

  138. lefty e

    I will PISS myself laughing if the next polls come in 50-50. 🙂

    And one thing Im 100% unconcerned about is a long tenure under Abbott. He has “accidental PM” tattooed on his mug, shelflife 3 yr max.

    Well all know he doesnt have what it takes for political longevity – maybe no one does anymore, in this throwaway era of politics. But certainly not Abbott – too psychologically immature to win over women, for example. And a recession coming too.

    No, he will be a one termer. Nothing surer.

    Thats IF he actually gets one. Still 51-49 – and thats close. I just read em as I see em. :p

    Gimme a reason to change my mind, and I will.

  139. Centre

    matt31

    I just logged in 10 mins ago.

    Fair dinkum, you’d think it was 7.00pm on election night.

    Rudd has won the last 2 or 3 days, and their ads are very good.

    Let’s just wait and see what Nielsen on Sunday night produces?

  140. Edward StJohn

    It seems Peter Beattie is this elections General Wenck.

  141. lefty e

    Too right Centre.

  142. William Bowe

    [Sean Jisme was playing with the collective PB mind earlier by stating Nielson has a PV of 50% or better for the Coalition.]

    I believe it was Lady Miranda Whatshername, rather than ST.

  143. confessions

    [I will PISS myself laughing if the next polls come in 50-50.]

    So will everyone else.

    [Well all know he doesnt have what it takes for political longevity ]

    This is an extraordinary statement given a) he has been in parliament for 20 years, over half that time in government, b) he won the Liberal leadership when everyone else was laughing at his candidacy, and c) he is STILL LOTO and looks almost certain to be Australia’s next Prime Minister.

  144. Rosemour or Less

    Geoffrey

    ‘labor will win and well’

    Hope you’re right.

    Are you related to Bob Maguire by ant chance?

  145. zoidlord

    @William/2517

    It was both, Miranda then Sean.

  146. Edward StJohn

    Yes Geoffrey there will be a “narrowing”.

    Oh and in 23 days we will have a renamed Government Gazette.

  147. Centre

    Lynchpin

    You guys fooled by Tisme 😯

    Where is Tisme?

    He’s probably dying from laughter 😆

  148. Sean Tisme

    [Meanwhile in QLD, move along now, nothing to see..]

    Well other than some guy sticking his dick in a fine red wine, what more is there to see?

    He’s been publicly humiliated by a gilted ex-lover… what do you want the government to do, Hang, Draw and Quarter him?

  149. Bugler

    People act as if car manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing are the only manufacturers that exist. I can assure you that is not the case. Not that anyone cares to listen. (Which is odd, considering most people that work in manufacturing that someone would know, would probably not work in those areas).

  150. Carey Moore

    [Sean Jisme was playing with the collective PB mind earlier by stating Nielson has a PV of 50% or better for the Coalition.]

    You do know some of us draw political conclusions from outside of this board, don’t you? And you probably also know that we tend not to actually give any credibility to what’s said by party hacks, right?

  151. davidwh

    ReachTel will likely be the next poll release Ch7 news tomorrow.

    Personally I think the Nielsen 50% is just mind games as they aren’t even due to be polling.

  152. zoidlord

    @Sean/2523

    It’s probably pay back for a Gay NSW Minister that was humiliated and had to resign for being Gay.

  153. Mick77

    lefty
    [Gimme a reason to change my mind, and I will.]
    Ok – how about the next set of polls?

  154. lefty e

    Its a true statement Confessions.

    Abbott isnt PM material. He wont last. Backbench brawler at best, thrust into the limelight by circumstance (and Minchin), got lucky with an ALP implosion – will last 10 minutes in sunlight before he deeply embarasses the nation, and either loses, or has to be put down politically.

    Thats IF he wins this one.

    Im happy to be quoted on this in 3 years time.

  155. Simon Baker

    If Nielsen does have a 50% Coalition primary that would actually be 2% down on the Morgan Coalition primary of Monday and Tuesday night, so actually not quite as bad for the ALP. Clearly though early this week must have been terrible polling nights for the ALP, but remember Abbott’s gay marriage comment was not made until Wednesday and his sexist remark made on Tuesday, so neither would really have filtered through to the Morgan poll or most of the Nielsen poll if they are already releasing result. Maybe the notes issues was bad for the ALP, who knows. Wait until at least Monday for a clearer picture to emerge!

  156. Centre

    Lady Mooney Valley Randwick

    She’s the best fisherman or fisherwomen (whichever 😆 ) PB has ever had!

  157. confessions

    [Well other than some guy sticking his dick in a fine red wine, what more is there to see?]

    *Shudders at the thought that there might actually be more to see*

  158. AussieAchmed

    Centre

    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    Mexicanbeemer @ 2459

    Just what is it that the government hasn’t delivered exactly?
    —————————————————–

    Low inflation
    Low official interest rates
    Low unemployment
    Murray- Darling Agreement
    Million houses with solar panels
    Since 2007 economy has grown 13%
    Construction of NBN commenced
    Disability Care
    Better Schools Program
    Gonski (cant recall new name)
    190,000 extra University places
    Dental Reform
    $60 billion invested in infrastructure
    Lower taxes
    Productivity growth
    Increased number of small businesses
    Computers in Schools
    The APOLOGY
    Fair Work Act
    Managed Australia through the GFC.
    Low debt to GDP ratio

  159. lefty e

    [Ok – how about the next set of polls?]

    Yes, how about we wait for those. Thats my point.

    Cheer up: you fight hard, you win graciously,lose with equanimity.

    Whinging wont get you anywhere.

    Nite all.

  160. Lynchpin

    Yes William, perhaps. I didn’t read Lady Mirabella Bollocks-Brain. But Sean Tisme repeated it.

  161. gloryconsequence

    Simon

    [If Nielsen does have a 50% Coalition primary that would actually be 2% down on the Morgan Coalition primary of Monday and Tuesday night, so actually not quite as bad for the ALP.]

    You’re joking right?

    Tell me you’re joking.

  162. Socrates

    Carey Moore, Bugler

    +1 re both your comments on cars. Cars are an over supplied industry, closing plants world wide. To be competitive, production has to be highly automated, thus creating few jobs in the actual assembly. Do the R&D, leave the assembly to Thailand. Honda do. Better yet, make something else. SA mkes more money exporting wine, employing more people, at higher wages.

  163. confessions

    [Abbott isnt PM material.]

    Of course he isn’t. But this is not the same as not having political longevity. Even Pyne has political longevity, yet nobody claims he’s PM material! (perish the thought btw)

  164. Lynchpin

    Well said lefty e

  165. Simon Baker

    gloryconsequence – Morgan is generally the most pro ALP pollster, so Nielsen would actually be better for the ALP on what were clearly the ALP’s worst nights of the campaign (and before Abbott’s same sex marriage comments or his sexist comment had filtered through)

  166. Sean Tisme

    [It’s probably pay back for a Gay NSW Minister that was humiliated and had to resign for being Gay.]

    He resigned as minister over the incident, not his seat.

    Anyways I think it is a pretty low act by his ex-lover whom I note was too gutless to go on camera without the blur job, yet was happy to share the happy snaps of him.

  167. Lynchpin

    Glory, I think Simon is mixing up PV with 2PP

  168. Centre

    AA @ 2533

    Yep, so should we get angry when a so called Labor supporter accuses this government of not delivering?

  169. AussieAchmed

    Politics is the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen.
    Winston Churchill

  170. Carey Moore

    If the upcoming Nielsen has a Coalition primary at 50%, there’s very little solace one could draw from that.

  171. Lynchpin

    Sean, do you know what vintage Pinot the LNP member had his penis in?

  172. Lynchpin

    [If the upcoming Nielsen has a Coalition primary at 50%, there’s very little solace one could draw from that.]

    Fair dinkum?

  173. AussieAchmed

    Anger is an emotion of waste.

    Waste of time, waste of energy, waste of a friendship

  174. Sean Tisme

    [Sean, do you know what vintage Pinot the LNP member had his penis in?]

    No,

    But I heard it had a nutty flavour

  175. guytaur

    @GrogsGamut: It’s not a “gaffe”. It’s a trend. http://t.co/TzFpZudKNo via @AusVotes2013

  176. AussieAchmed

    The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

    Winston Churchill

    And you only need to read Sean’s posts to understand what Churchill menat

  177. matt31

    @Simon

    Correct me if I am wrong, but Morgan has been nowhere near as biased towards Labor since their polls went multi mode. Also, this was not even multi mode, it was a small sample phone poll, 569 sample size.

  178. gloryconsequence

    [If the upcoming Nielsen has a Coalition primary at 50%, there’s very little solace one could draw from that.]

    There’s no solace. And if anyone tries to find any they should be given a 6 month banning.

  179. Simon Baker

    Lynchpin – NO, Morgan had a Coalition 52% PV on Monday and Tuesday and 57% on 2PP, so Nielsen would be down on that. It seems earlier polls this week for some reason (notes?) were terrible for the ALP, but as I said the gay marriage gaffe was only made yesterday and the sexist gaffe on Tuesday so neither would have filtered through yet. The trend will not be clear until Monday when all the week’s vents will have filtered through.

  180. Centre

    The Coalition 46%

    Labor 38%

    The Greens 7%

    Other 9%

    2PP 52/48

    Get a grip everyone!

    Centre’s estimates 😛

  181. paaptsef

    if we kill local car making we will then get the same thing we do with IT products – a special high price for Australia because we have no choice

  182. Simon Baker

    Matt31 – They have moved them more towards the average, but they still lean slightly ALP

  183. guytaur

    Centre

    As I said earlier. Its too close to call. Certainly not depression stakes for Labor supporters

  184. gloryconsequence

    [The trend will not be clear until Monday when all the week’s vents will have filtered through.]

    Delusional.

    People keep saying “Oh wait til next week’s polling, they will be the real ones, Abbott’s comments about xxxx haven’t filtered through!”

    Absolutely irrational and moronic.

    It will be Thursday the 5th, we’ll be trailing 53-47, and people here will be saying WAIT FOR SATURDAY, EVERY POLL IS WRONG, IT WILL ALL FILTER THROUGH!

  185. Carey Moore

    [There’s no solace. And if anyone tries to find any they should be given a 6 month banning.]

    There’s always solace, for example:

    58-42 to the Coalition? *shrugs* at least it’s not 59-41, amirite?

  186. Lynchpin

    Simon

    [This telephone Morgan Poll shows Two-Party preferred: L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43%. The primary vote is L-NP 52%, ALP 31%, Greens 9% and Independent/Others 8%. Of those surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.]

    You are quite right. Seems absurd to me that a 52% PV only gives a 2PP of 57%.

  187. matt31

    @carey and glory

    The key word is if. This was all started by Miranda so many names I can’t be bothered listing them. I highly doubt the poll would have even been complete when this was posted. Some massive jumping at shadows happening around here tonight. Nothing has happened this week to move things so violently.

  188. Edward StJohn

    Where’s Adam Carr? Burning and shredding?

  189. Carey Moore

    [Get a grip everyone!]

    Yeah, no. You don’t just pull some arbitrary numbers out of your arse and then use it as a basis to tell others to “get a grip”

  190. AussieAchmed

    Motto for Abbott’s media support
    ============================================
    A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.
    Winston Churchill
    ===========================================================
    And by then the papers are out, the punters have read them and our lie becomes the “new” truth

  191. Centre

    Guytaur

    Labor are behind, but there is a long way to go.

    Who could ever forget Howards 58/42 Newspoll before he got Downer to sound out his party support 😆

    That was at the start or a week before of the campaign from memory?

  192. DisplayName

    I do not think the pessimism has anything to do with imaginary floated numbers.

    Exhibit A) Rosemour, *hug*
    Exhibit B) people who preferred Gillard
    Exhibit C) people who think Rudd is a phony and that the public are catching on
    Exhibit D) people who don’t like (some of) his policies
    Exhibit E) people who don’t like his political strategy
    Exhibit F) tories on holiday and greens 😛

    There may be overlap between some groups.

  193. bemused

    Lynchpin@2484

    Abbott is coasting.

    I couldn’t believe Sayles swallowed his crap about the GST tonight.

    Bemused, you need to give us a pep talk.

    A pep talk from me?

    I would advise all ALP supporters to volunteer to help with your local campaign or the campaign in the nearest marginal.

    I live in Bruce but am working on the Latrobe campaign, making phone calls on behalf of Laura Smyth. The reaction has been encouraging.

    It is amusing to read assurances here saying Gillard and supporters won’t leak. As Mark Kenny put it in the SMH, they have already ‘viciously traduced Rudd’ and it is on the public record. Nothing Rudd and supporters are alleged to have done compares with this blatant and treacherous attempt to destroy Rudd. Our opponents will no doubt use it with glee.

    Above all else I say don’t give up and give of your best to help the campaign.

    Unfortunately William will not let me give full vent to my feelings of disgust about some here who have masqueraded as Labor supporters but have revealed their true colours. 😡 I have greater respect for ‘honest’ Libs who never hid their loyalties.

    We are not done yet and I still hope we can defeat the forces of darkness.

    Courage and hard work comrades!

  194. Sean Tisme

    My Nielsen guess is:

    51% Coalition
    31% Labor
    9% Greens
    9% Other

  195. Simon Baker

    Gloryconsequence – If in the last week the Coalition was ahead 53-47 even I would be prepared to admit Abbott will win, but one or two such polls before barely even the half-way mark of the campaign does not an election result make!

  196. William Bowe

    [Where’s Adam Carr?]

    Thailand.

  197. Centre

    Carey M

    Get a grip 😉

    My figures are adjusted according to the way I see fit. I use polls as a guide then make my own determination.

    It’s a combination of the value I attribute to a poll, the trend and when they are released.

  198. Carey Moore

    I’ll state, adamantly, for the record:

    1. I take the Morgan Phone poll with a grain of salt, as I always do with an opinion poll that is wildly different than the rest. Unless other polls deliver similar results, I assume it is a rogue – especially considering the modest sample size.

    2. I don’t actually believe the Coalition primary of a pending Nielsen is 50%, at least not based on what has been said by whichever Coalition hack it was. Unless it’s from William, James J, GhostWhoVotes, or is a link to a credible tweet or article, I take all poll rumours with a grain of salt.

    3. I am not nervous, upset, pessimistic, or any other despondent emotion. I am just calling things as I see them. What’s the point in suppressing one’s insight, just to be a cheerleader? It’s pointless. If people are sensitive to pessimistic projections for their party, then maybe a political discussion forum is not for them.

    4. I have been wrong before and I can be wrong again. And I’ll be the first to admit my era and take the mockery if I am completely wrong.

  199. Simon Baker

    Lynchpin – Indeed, but there we go!

  200. Lynchpin

    Bemused, yes, I am doing what I can – street stalls and some phoning.

    I think it is seat by seat. Smart targeting of the marginal. In this seat we need to pull back 900 votes from the last election.

    Uhlman analysed the marginals tonight and came up with ALP having only 63 seats. Not sure what polling he was using though.

  201. AussieAchmed

    Lynchpin

    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Simon

    This telephone Morgan Poll shows Two-Party preferred: L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43%. The primary vote is L-NP 52%, ALP 31%, Greens 9% and Independent/Others 8%. Of those surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

    You are quite right. Seems absurd to me that a 52% PV only gives a 2PP of 57%.
    —————————————————

    this was a telephone poll of 549 people.

  202. Bugler

    Bemused,

    [I live in Bruce but am working on the Latrobe campaign, making phone calls on behalf of Laura Smyth. The reaction has been encouraging.]

    Many questions about the Maccas in Tecoma? Had to ask (I have friends who work at the Lilydale McDonalds. Apparently people call them up and abuse them over the matter).

  203. guytaur

    Centre

    Yes I remember that week of APEC. Made memorable around the world by the Chaser boys.

    The start of Karma for Howard.

  204. Carey Moore

    [I’ll be the first to admit my era]

    *error.

    Lack of sleep is catching up.

  205. Lynchpin

    Carey, I agree with you, with one difference. I am prone to see it somewhat emotionally. It really matters to me that the ALP wins. I can’t help that.

  206. Centre

    The big problem for Labor is not the Morgan phone poll, believe me, it’s the fact that the 52/48 looks sold 😐

  207. matt31

    Ok, if we are in the business of making predictions for the next poll, which I expect will indeed be Nielsen tomorrow night:

    Coalition 45
    ALP 38

    Greens 10

    Others 7

  208. AussieAchmed

    House of Representatives

    2013 ALP L-NP
    August 9-11, 2013 (Multi-mode) 50.0 50.0
    August 2-4, 2013 (Multi-mode) 50.0 50.0
    July 26-28, 2013 (Multi-mode) 52.0 48.0

  209. Centre

    52/48 appears solid I should have said at 2581

  210. DisplayName

    In other words, the pessimism is all coming from people already predisposed to it.

    That doesn’t mean they’re wrong :P.

  211. lefty e

    [Courage and hard work comrades!]

    Word, Bemused. Thats the spirit. Its gone a bit pissweak around here lately.

    If you want my current guess on the next round of polls: a further slump in Abbott’s already low low approval among women keeps things interesting.

    And even if it doesnt: get out there and campaign anyway!

  212. briefly

    [2579
    Carey Moore

    I’ll be the first to admit my era]

    I’m dimly conscious that mine is best described as bygone.

  213. Kevin Bonham

    Lynchpin@2561

    Simon


    This telephone Morgan Poll shows Two-Party preferred: L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43%. The primary vote is L-NP 52%, ALP 31%, Greens 9% and Independent/Others 8%. Of those surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.


    You are quite right. Seems absurd to me that a 52% PV only gives a 2PP of 57%.

    It is apparently respondent-allocated and even if you assume no difference with the 2010 preference distributions then the small sample size of Greens and Others could very easily give you a 5-12 split compared with the expected 6.6-10.4. Add the possibility of respondents allocating differently and there is nothing left to explain.

    For a last-election preference I get a median value of 58.5:41.5 (using Morgan’s rounding to half a point, actually 41.4) and a highest possible value for Labor of 42.1.

  214. Mick77

    DN
    [Exhibit C) people who think Rudd is a phony and that the public are catching on]
    You’ve just outed 52-53% of the population, and rising.

  215. Simon Baker

    Centre – Galaxy and Essential Research have it 51-49, winnable for an incumbent government, and I cannot see any events since which will have altered it so dramtically overall. Immediate post-debate may have given Abbott a boost, hence the Coalition poll rise, but then the gaffes may have cut that

  216. gloryconsequence

    Extensive marginal seat polling in The Oz tomorrow

  217. mexicanbeemer

    Centre

    Did you read the article that i linked.

    Some parts of Australia are experiencing very high levels of unemployment.

    I agree with Zoidlord, the Government does need to focus on reducing the cost of education.

  218. Centre

    Gloryc and Simon B

    Maybe we might hear from Ghost?

  219. Socrates

    [if we kill local car making we will then get the same thing we do with IT products – a special high price for Australia because we have no choice]
    If that were true it would be a good reason to keep the car industry, but it is not true. The car industry is much more competitive and less of a monopoly than IT.

    NZ found out years ago that the opposite is the case. Foreign car makers sell cars here at very high prices, despite low tariffs, because they know the government’s support of local car makers creates an effective floor price. Also car importing rules create monopolies. This is true at the top and bottom end. A Prius coats far less in the USA than here, so that Toyota can sell the Camry Hybrid here for a similar price to the Prius. A Porsche Boxter costs about $60k AUS in UK. The same car here coats $100k.

    Apologists for bad policy always conflate the entire car industry with manufacturing. Most of the jobs are in sales, maintenance and repair, which will not be lost.

  220. lefty e

    A clever phony v. a genuine douche

    Too close to call punters!

  221. absolutetwaddle

    It seems to me that Morgan result really raped the subconscious of some otherwise worthy Labor supporters here. If Newspoll shows 57/43 then you have my blessing to freak out or get all negative or depressed but until that time, soldier on.

    52/48ish is a walk in the fucking park compared to what it was. Not impossible for it to be improved upon either. Cheer up and get volunteering.

    Hell, even if Abbott wins the vast majority of us will live to see the day he gets turfed out along with his pathetic front bench. That’s worth sticking around for in my opinion.

  222. lefty e

    [52/48ish is a walk in the fucking park compared to what it was. Not impossible for it to be improved upon either. Cheer up and get volunteering.

    Hell, even if Abbott wins the vast majority of us will live to see the day he gets turfed out along with his pathetic front bench. That’s worth sticking around for in my opinion.]

    Seconded!

  223. Carey Moore

    [It seems to me that Morgan result really raped the subconscious of some otherwise worthy Labor supporters here.]

    Tiny request: could you perhaps choose another verb in future?

  224. Socrates

    Regarding the polls, there is no point being defeatist, as Bligh proved in the Qld election. That will make it worse. That being said, it looks difficult. Labor needs a new goal, not just a new policy. Genuine reforms, a la Hawke/Keating II, including all the Henry review, would be great. But that will take courage.

    Night all.

  225. Centre

    Mexicanbeemer

    Go back and read AA in the previous page. More informative and based on real facts.

    You’re being a concern troll at this time of night, it’s late!

  226. mexicanbeemer

    AA

    We know all that but many people are not seeing the evidence.

    I suggest you visit places like Melbourne’s outer north.

    We can tell one another our much better Kevin is over Tone (which isn’t hard) but there are many that done see it hence the current polls.

    Although thanks to the gaffe-a-thon from Tone and a solid first week from the government we might start to see the polls narrow.

  227. geoffrey

    AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 10:50 pm | PERMALINK
    Centre

    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    Mexicanbeemer @ 2459

    Just what is it that the government hasn’t delivered exactly?
    —————————————————–

    Low inflation
    Low official interest rates
    Low unemployment
    Murray- Darling Agreement
    Million houses with solar panels
    Since 2007 economy has grown 13%
    Construction of NBN commenced
    Disability Care
    Better Schools Program
    Gonski (cant recall new name)
    190,000 extra University places
    Dental Reform
    $60 billion invested in infrastructure
    Lower taxes
    Productivity growth
    Increased number of small businesses
    Computers in Schools
    The APOLOGY
    Fair Work Act
    Managed Australia through the GFC.
    Low debt to GDP ratio

    this should be a scrolling list on a labor ad.
    with some fruity male actor reading.
    but i love the negative ads coming out.

  228. bemused

    Lynchpin@2575

    Bemused, yes, I am doing what I can – street stalls and some phoning.

    I think it is seat by seat. Smart targeting of the marginal. In this seat we need to pull back 900 votes from the last election.

    Uhlman analysed the marginals tonight and came up with ALP having only 63 seats. Not sure what polling he was using though.

    Still a lot of the campaign to go and a lot of people are still making up their minds. I even struck a couple tonight who did not even know when the election was! 😮

    I missed 7.30 making phone calls so will catch up with it on ABC24 at 11:30 tonight. Abbott cannot keep avoiding exposure for ever.

    I agree, with some qualifications, with what TP has been saying about policies not being important. The average voter has no idea of the details of each party’s policies.

    What is coming through in my calls is concern about the economy and job security. If Labor can win the argument that it will manage the economy better, it will win the election. A lot of this will come down to confidence in Rudd and his team vs confidence in Abbott and his team.

  229. mexicanbeemer

    Centre

    Fine, don’t listen just as long as there is no sulking come September the 8th

  230. Centre

    mexicanbeemer is putting me to sleep.

    Campaign on your record.

    The Labor one is not bad.

    *night

  231. Carey Moore

    [Regarding the polls, there is no point being defeatist, as Bligh proved in the Qld election. That will make it worse.]

    I agree. Labor supporters should work their butts off to prove me wrong. If just to prevent a potential blowout. No matter how obvious a loss is, a party should never concede an election before polling day. Not because they might win but, rather, to avoid telling all of your hard working supporters not to bother any more.

  232. bemused

    Bugler@2577

    Bemused,


    I live in Bruce but am working on the Latrobe campaign, making phone calls on behalf of Laura Smyth. The reaction has been encouraging.


    Many questions about the Maccas in Tecoma? Had to ask (I have friends who work at the Lilydale McDonalds. Apparently people call them up and abuse them over the matter).

    Not one.

    Either it doesn’t rate or people see it is not a Federal Govt issue.

  233. mexicanbeemer

    geoffrey

    True, it is a nice list, could be good in an ad

  234. geoffrey

    one has to be heartened after 7.30 – the most dismal dishonest and understandably rare one on one interview – how can journalist or public take this one seriously? he intends to release evidence of economic management just before media black out. whether or not this has been done before is irrelevant to his own carping about economic whatever -and his treasurer saying costings just bore the public. one knows the enemy better this evening, and they are without honor.

  235. mexicanbeemer

    O dear it isn’t that late.

  236. geoffrey

    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 11:29 pm | PERMALINK
    geoffrey

    True, it is a nice list, could be good in an ad

    yes labor does need to stand on its proud collective record – correct the terrible misrepresentations. greens too should be better collaborative case instead of exaggerating and bagging ‘old parties’ all the time – esp labor. FFS who do they think they are?

  237. taylormade

    GC 2591: “Extensive marginal seat polling in The Oz tomorrow”

    Not sure if related, but Reachtel polled our house in Coragamite tonight. Automated. 4 questions.

    Primary Vote ?
    Preferred PM ?
    Best to handle Asylum Seekers ?
    Is Abbott sexist ?

  238. DisplayName

    Mick, Rudd may be a phony but the substance of most Labor and Liberal policies are completely different. Perhaps Labor supporters should be thankful that Rudd is a phony and that the apparent shift towards each other of the two major parties is his illusion – though I believe such an illusion is to Labor’s disadvantage.

    Perhaps I should have added another group whose belief that policies matter is being proven wrong by reality :P.

  239. AussieAchmed

    mexicanbeemer

    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    AA

    We know all that but many people are not seeing the evidence.

    I suggest you visit places like Melbourne’s outer north.
    —————————————————–

    The weather is sh*t compared to the lovely north west of WA
    and airfares are very high at the moment.

    Fly Broome to Perth costs more than Perth to Melbourne.

    (Between you and me I think the lower fare to Melb is to try and get people to go there)

  240. mexicanbeemer

    Maybe i am just getting frustrated that someone that is as policy lazy as Tone can even be even let apparently along in front.

  241. Kevin Bonham

    Simon Baker@2554

    Lynchpin – NO, Morgan had a Coalition 52% PV on Monday and Tuesday and 57% on 2PP, so Nielsen would be down on that. It seems earlier polls this week for some reason (notes?) were terrible for the ALP, but as I said the gay marriage gaffe was only made yesterday and the sexist gaffe on Tuesday so neither would have filtered through yet. The trend will not be clear until Monday when all the week’s vents will have filtered through.

    Just because Gary Morgan claims to believe the notes thing could cause a 5-point blowout doesn’t mean anyone else has to. Things like bickering about debates, gaffes about SSM and so on have nowhere near the impact on voting intention that some people invest them with. They are virtually always things no-one much cares about bar those who had already made up their minds. The sexist comment thing I don’t think will have much impact either.

  242. pedant

    Is everyone here doing primal scream therapy? A few thoughts: (1) about 13 million people will vote at the election; (2) they are getting their political information from a more diverse set of sources than ever before, which makes it harder than ever before for people to even know which “campaign” those voters are experiencing; (3) the main reputable polls show a reasonably close split of the electorate, leaning, at the moment and for some time past, to the coalition; (4) there may be other polling being done, of which some commenters here may be aware, but I can’t claim to know of it; (5) some people might claim a unique insight into the likely behaviour of swinging voters, but that’s not much different from divining water with a stick; (6) the parties all seem to be saving up their money for a blitz in the final weeks. Put that all together, and one would be foolish to bet the house on either side.

  243. AussieAchmed

    night all.

    hope you all are able to return tomorrow….

    A smile costs nothing

  244. Bugler

    Bemused,

    [Not one.

    Either it doesn’t rate or people see it is not a Federal Govt issue.]

    I’m almost disappointed. I’ve personally been surprised by the veracity of the opposition initially, wondered if they’ve considered getting the feds in, or making it an issue.

  245. AussieAchmed

    One last thing

    Labor and Liberal have stated they will not deal with minor parties in a hung Parliament

    Labor and Liberals may one day need to form a Coalition to keep the minor parties and Independents from forming Govt…

  246. Marrickville Mauler

    Night to the human beings ( of varying politics) , miserable dreams to the trolls.

  247. Simon Baker

    KB – We will find out, as I said, by the beginning of next week if there has been a real shift or not much change after all

  248. gloryconsequence

    Simon

    We will find out by tomorrow night.

  249. Simon Baker

    glory consequence – It depends entirly when the sample range was, only next week will all this week’s events have been included fully

  250. lefty e

    [What is coming through in my calls is concern about the economy and job security. If Labor can win the argument that it will manage the economy better, it will win the election. A lot of this will come down to confidence in Rudd and his team vs confidence in Abbott and his team.]

    Absolutely: people know times are pretty good, albeit with real cost of living pressures for many, but they also sense uncertainty ahead.

    Job security matters. Labor can win this argument. More important even than Abbotts cuts

  251. Sean Tisme

    What has Labor ever done for me??

  252. mexicanbeemer

    Job Security is key, if the ALP can and it has started to highlight the alternative.

    The business community even is starting to say that it expects things to be challenging under a Tone lead government due to the size of the purposed budget cuts.

  253. mexicanbeemer

    Sean

    Kept Australia out of recession during a period of a globally severe economic downturn.

    Created Super

    Are just two things.

  254. lefty e

    I will admit, even though I’m a morale officer by nature, that the Morgan was hard to blot out..

    But it only takes one poll that reinforces to what I think is still par – LNP around 51 or 52 – and that Morgans a rogue!

    Either way – campaign tll the 7th. You can whinge and moan- or celebrate – when it’s over!

  255. DisplayName

    Tisme, we’re not psychic.

  256. lefty e

    JOB SECURITY

    Theme of the week

  257. lefty e

    Have you ever used Medicare, Sean?

    You’re welcome.

  258. Carey Moore

    [What has Labor ever done for me??]

    That fortnightly bit of money you get, while spending all day posting on here…

  259. Steve777

    As I posted yesterday, look at the Morgan site. Even Morgan don’t believe the 57-43 result, which is why they buried a couple of pages down it under ‘For the Poll Nerds’. Especially since a Morgan poll of over 3,000 a few days previously was 50-50.

  260. Diogenes

    Seriously, has anything noteworthy happened this week in the campaign? I have literally not heard a single person discuss the election this week.

  261. WeWantPaul

    [Seriously, has anything noteworthy happened this week in the campaign? I have literally not heard a single person discuss the election this week.]

    It has been very yawn. Abbott is a moron as usual, press report him as if he were a credible candidate.

  262. DisplayName

    Dio, the problem is no-one tripped, had sandwiches thrown at them or has been leaked on.

  263. William Bowe

    Dennis Shanahan in The Oz. Though I don’t know if this is a Newspoll marginal seats poll, a report on internal polling, or what:

    [LABOR faces a wipe-out on the NSW central coast where Kevin Rudd’s popularity has crashed below his already flagging national personal support and Tony Abbott is clearly the preferred prime minister. Labor support in the seats of Robertson and Dobell has fallen seven percentage points since the 2010 election on a two-party-preferred basis, which would put Liberal MPs into both seats. If the swing in the two marginal electorates were repeated in other NSW marginal Labor seats, it would be catastrophic for the Rudd government, handing the opposition up to seven other seats, not including New England and Lyne, which the Coalition is expected to pick up after the retirement of independent MPs Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott.]

  264. William Bowe

    Ah, here we go:

    [According to a Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian in Dobell and Robertson last weekend, Labor’s primary vote was 35 per cent, eight percentage points down from the 2010 election, and the Coalition primary support was 50 per cent, up eight points since the last election. On a two-party-preferred basis, based on preference flows at the 2010 election, Labor’s support is down seven points to 46 per cent and the Coalition’s is up seven points to 54 per cent.]

  265. Pica

    “What has Labor ever done for me??”

    It has saved you from growing up in a country that resembles a derelict state of the USA… you abject moron

  266. Mod Lib

    A 7% swing statewide in NSW is 13 seats not 9 isnt it?

  267. Kevin Bonham

    Steve777@2635

    As I posted yesterday, look at the Morgan site. Even Morgan don’t believe the 57-43 result, which is why they buried a couple of pages down it under ‘For the Poll Nerds’. Especially since a Morgan poll of over 3,000 a few days previously was 50-50.

    I think it is more that that poll was primarily a PPM/approval poll and that voting intention was not its major purpose. I’m not even sure they have always published the voting intention results for those.

  268. zoidlord

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

    #Newspoll Seats of Dobell & Robertson 2 Party Preferred: ALP 46 LIB 54 #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

    #Newspoll Seats of Dobell & Robertson Primary Votes: ALP 35 LIB 50 #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 57s

    #Newspoll Seats of Dobell & Robertson Preferred PM: Rudd 41 Abbott 47 #ausvotes

  269. Mod Lib

    ….finally some decent marginal seat data!

  270. zoidlord

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 23s

    #Newspoll Seats of Dobell & Robertson Rudd: Approve 39 Disapprove 54 #ausvotes

  271. Carey Moore

    [Seriously, has anything noteworthy happened this week in the campaign? I have literally not heard a single person discuss the election this week.]

    The worst part is it hasn’t been boring because of a lack of superficial sideshows or anything, but rather there has been little substance in the whole thing. I realise campaigns last 5 weeks and parties usually unveil their big stuff later in the campaign but it still has been rather shallow, even compared to 2007 and 2010.

  272. Mod Lib

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m
    #Newspoll Seats of Dobell & Robertson Rudd: Approve 39 Disapprove 54 #ausvotes

  273. zoidlord

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 23s

    #Newspoll Seats of Dobell & Robertson Abbott: Approve 53 Disapprove 41 #ausvotes

  274. DisplayName

    Mod Lib, you need to get out there and start convincing more NSW voters that they’re being lazy with their cricket bats :P.

  275. Carey Moore

    There you go. You wanted something quantifiable to justify a negative outlook for Labor’s prospects. And yes, NSW is a state where Rudd realistically needs net gains to have any chance of winning…

  276. Mod Lib

    NSW are punishing the ALP as they should.

  277. Mod Lib

    …they are just not punishing Abbott as they should :devil:

  278. zoidlord

    @William/2640

    Last weekend?

    Week out of date?

  279. Carey Moore

    [NSW are punishing the ALP as they should.]

    But that’s okay, at least Sam Dastyari gets his Senate seat!

  280. DisplayName

    Then you’re not trying hard enough!

  281. sustainable future

    Obviously many NSWelshMEN see abbott as one of them – xenophobic, selfish, deceitful, sexist, and not that bright :).

    funny how Oz writers seize on poll results that may be outliers, and then downplay any positive labor or greens polls – invariably choosing the report anything positive in the results for the ALP – so a 50:50 will get reported as “Rudd’s popularity falls” based on net personal approval. I know I’ve said it here before, but a I recall a front page banner heading in the dying days of the howard government “5% swing to Howard” for a poll that showed the government were rooted, but his net unpopularity has eased by 5%.

  282. Mod Lib

    [But that’s okay, at least Sam Dastyari gets his Senate seat!]

    I get that this will not necessarily be taken in the good faith in which it is given, but I STRONGLY advise the ALP not to give Dastyari that Senate seat!

    You guys just make it too damn easy for my side of politics sometimes…..too damn easy (its probably not good for the country)

  283. Carey Moore

    [I get that this will not necessarily be taken in the good faith in which it is given, but I STRONGLY advise the ALP not to give Dastyari that Senate seat!]

    Door closed on that today, I believe!

  284. Mod Lib

    I am starting to get a little worried now……perhaps my 85-65 seat prediction needs to be adjusted towards 100?

  285. Pica

    Who else in this godforsaken country thinks we’d be better off if we sold NSW, lock stock and O’Barrel to the lowest bidder?

  286. Andrew

    Seems our pessimism is justified. Cue, Rosemour.

    This ship is going down

  287. Mod Lib

    Whatever can be done to change it, if you support the ALP, get out there and change it.

    Thats my advice!

  288. Carey Moore

    Seriously, what were they thinking?! Did they think nobody would notice or something? Any chance of Kevin Rudd distancing himself from the NSW Right disappeared when that happened!

  289. Mod Lib

    [Carey Moore
    Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 12:27 am | PERMALINK
    Seriously, what were they thinking?]

    When you have as much power as the NSW (Always) Right, you don’t need to think

  290. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/2665

    It’s why you don’t have a RIGHT in your party.

  291. bemused

    zoidlord@2666

    @Mod Lib/2665

    It’s why you don’t have a RIGHT in your party.

    Naaah… the Libs have 2 factions. Extreme Right and Fascist.

  292. Carey Moore

    [@Mod Lib/2665

    It’s why you don’t have a RIGHT in your party.]

    If only that were true…

  293. Mod Lib

    91 to 100 seats is now the lowest odds in Betfair ($1.76 to $1) ….. it was $3+ last time I looked….

  294. DisplayName

    Mod, on that at least we don’t need your advice – even though your advice frequently results in unintended effects anyway :P.

    Perhaps KR needs it though.

  295. Mod Lib

    The ALP constantly takes my advice:

    Increase the tax free threshold to the poverty level- done
    Increase the humanitarian intake to 20,000- done
    Dump Gillard- done

    Dump Dastyari- pending

  296. DisplayName

    Are you sure that you didn’t mistype ‘i’ for ‘a’?

  297. my say

    I notice the palmer can, here has only 160 likes

    Now Jane Austin there is a star

    amazing lady walked for 14 months a visted thousands of home
    it alp candidate we need for Denison
    not an indepedant