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Election guide and BludgerTrack review

The Poll Bludger’s guide to the 150 House of Representatives electorates is now in business. Also featured: a closer look at the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s movements since the start of the campaign.

The Poll Bludger’s federal election guide is now live and accessible from the link on the sidebar. Featured are profiles of all 150 House of Representatives electorates, in one shape or another. Comprehensive profiles are featured for Labor seats up to around 12% in margin and Coalition seats up to around 3%. Much of the content will be familiar to those of you who have been following Seat of the Week over the past year, although ongoing political tumult has required a considerable amount of revision. Things remain to be fleshed out for some of the safe Labor seats and a lot of the non-marginal Coalition ones, but at the very least each page comes equipped with candidate lists and graphics showing census results and voting history.

A review of BludgerTrack is in order while I’m here, as we now have a full week of campaign polling after yesterday’s slightly delayed publication of Essential Reserch. It’s clear that the evenly matched polling which followed the return of Kevin Rudd, and which was starting to look alarmingly sticky from a Coalition perspective, has unpeeled over the past fortnight. Close observation suggests this has not entirely been a phenomenon of the election campaign, the Coalition having already pulled ahead over the weekend of an election date announcement which came on the Sunday, after much of the polling had already been conducted. Aggregating the polling over the period has the Coalition already a shade over 51% on two-party preferred, to which they added perhaps a little under 1% over the first week of the campaign. The Greens seem to have made a neglible dividend out of the government’s harder line, their vote being stuck in the 8% to 9% range on BludgerTrack since the beginning of June.

Looking at the progress of state breakdowns over that time, the outstanding change is a 4% swing away from Labor in all-important Queensland, consistent with the notion of a “sugar hit” that got added impetus from a home-state feel-good factor, and is now fading across the board. After showing as many as six gains for Labor in Queensland in the weeks after Rudd’s return, Labor’s yield on the BludgerTrack projection is now at zero, and briefly fell into the negative. So it’s not hard to imagine that Labor strategy meetings last week might have been spent contemplating ways to hold back the Queensland tide, and easy to understand why the name of Peter Beattie might have come up. The most recent data points suggest this may indeed have improved Labor’s position by as much as 3%, but it will be a bit longer before this shows up on BludgerTrack, if indeed it doesn’t prove illusory.

Elsewhere, Labor support looks to have come off to the tune of 1%-2% in New South Wales and South Australia and perhaps slightly less in Victoria. The interesting exception is Western Australia, where there has essentially been no change on a result which has Labor well in the hunt to poach two Liberal seats. The main political story out of the west over this period has been hostile reaction to a post-election state budget highlighted the a bungled cut to an excessively popular solar panel subsidy scheme. This has made the Barnett government the target of public attacks from federal MPs who have been open in their concern about federal electoral impacts. It may perhaps be worth noting that Western Australia is the only state without a daily News Limited tabloid.

A Newspoll result on best party to handle asylum seekers has been the most interesting item of attitudinal polling to emerge over the past week, since a point of comparison is available from a few weeks ago rather than the pre-history of the Gillard era. Whereas the Coalition fell on this measure from from 47% to 33% after the government announced its Papua New Guinea solution, the latest poll has it back up to 42%. Labor has nonetheless maintained its gain from the previous poll, having progressed from 20% to 26% to 27%, with the slack coming from “another party” and “don’t know”. Even so, the re-establishment of a solid double-digit lead to the Coalition is interesting, and a challenge to the notion that the recent poll move away from Labor has entirely been down to a “fading sugar hit”.

UPDATE (Morgan phone poll): Morgan has a small-sample phone poll of 569 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday night which headlines results on personal ratings, but if you burrow into the detail there’s a wildly off-trend result on voting intention with the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 52% for the Coalition, 31% for Labor and 9% for the Greens. Reflecting what was obviously a bad sample for Labor, the poll has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister narrowing to 46-43 from 52-36 at the last such poll a month ago. Rudd is down five on approval to 40% and up nine on disapproval to 49%, while Abbott is up four to 42% and down six to 48%.

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  • 51
    my say
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    Liberal Party
    @LiberalAus

    “We should put no limits on what Australia can achieve” @TonyAbbottMHR #realchange #debate

    9:28 a.m. Sun, Aug 11

    88 Retweets 27 Favorites

    Tony Arnold Tony Arnold @tonyarnold 3d

    @LiberalAus @TonyAbbottMHR except on their broadband speeds. We’ll limit those #fraudband #AusPol #ausvotes

    View conversation ·

    ============================================================

    that’s a laugh,, yes cut HECS , read earlier this year hints that HECS would be means tested.
    privatise education ,

    All the above is the opposite to making a great nation in abbott tweets

    full of comments and slogans THAT GO NO WHERE
    in comparison to
    our TRADE TRAINING POLICY announced yesterday,

    ========================================

    as a woman or a voter I would not stay in the same room as abbott in fact I would cross a 4 lane highway to not see him

  • 52
    Lady Miranda Ann Caulfeild Ackermann-Boltt
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:05 am | Permalink

    Victoria /50: How predictable and realistic.

    Abbott doesn’t need to do deals with any of the remainder. The election is in the bag and no amount of posturing between now and September 7 is going to change that. Abbott-haters should accept the reality that they’re BONED.

  • 53
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:06 am | Permalink

    Wtf is wrong with this man seriously!

    Abbott's calling his #sexappeal comment a "dad moment"?
    I'm a dad. Of daughters. And I would NEVER make a comment like that.

  • 54
    my say
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:06 am | Permalink

    skimmed past rummel as usual

    but has he changed sides again

  • 55
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    victoria:

    Abbott is the biggest hypocrite going!

  • 56
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    confessions

    He gives George Bush a run for his money

  • 57
    my say
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    HOW DARE HE INSULT MY HUSBAND AND FATHER OF OUR DAUGHTERS a

    dad moment,, my goodness , that sounds

    well words fail me,

    ==============================================================

    hope he says that all day every day

  • 58
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    Wtf is wrong with this man seriously!

    And what father other than one who is infirm or unsteady on his feet, routinely holds the hands of his adult daughters in public?

  • 59
    mikehilliard
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:09 am | Permalink

    Morning one & all

    BK – thanks for the Dawn Patrol post again, it has become part of my morning ritual. :-)

    Tingle’s article is spot on, looks like all the Lib voters can look forward to another $25 billion added to the deficit (not to mention a recession & rising interest rates) if they get their man into office. Suckers.

  • 60
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:10 am | Permalink

    confessions/my say

    Definitely something not quite right with Abbott

  • 61
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:10 am | Permalink

    Have a look at the photo of ABbott with the Liberal candidate for Lindsay.
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/18491931/sex-appeal-gaffe-just-exuberance/

    Exuberance?

    I still think that tweet ‘Vote Liberal and show us ya tits!’ says it all about today’s Liberal party.

  • 62
    my say
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    with this man seriously!

    Abbott’s calling his #sexappeal comment a “dad moment”?
    I’m a dad. Of daughters. And I would NEVER make a comment like that.
    ==========================================================

    well mr abbott most dad I know make jokes about locking up their daughters

    and vet all boy friends very seriously when they are young,..

    so some one enlighten me please
    what the hell does he mean

  • 63
    my say
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    I saw that sleezy look on tv last night
    I went to bed with the image

    if I saw a look like that on some one face
    when I was introduced I would run a mile

    when I was young and now

  • 64
    Dee
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    My Say

    Channel 9 panel this morning were excusing his comments as blokey, natural etc……

  • 65
    mikehilliard
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:20 am | Permalink

    my say – the picture of Williams on your link to the SMH article is truly disturbing.

  • 66
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    Looking on the internet to see if I could any meaningful and profound comments by Abbott unfortunately though unsurprisingly I found none, but was reminded of;

    Whyalla will be wiped off the map by Julia Gillard’s carbon tax. Whyalla risks becoming a ghost town, an economic wasteland, if this carbon tax goes ahead and that’s true not just of Whyalla, it’s also true of Port Pirie, it’s true of Gladstone, it’s true of communities in the Hunter Valley and the Illawarra in New South Wales, it’s true of Kwinana in Western Australia, it’s true of the La Trobe Valley, Portland, places like that in Victoria. There’s not a state and there’s hardly a region in this country that wouldn’t have major communities devastated by a carbon tax if this goes ahead…

    So how are things in Whyalla etc?

  • 67
    Andrew
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    More difficult to believe than Abbott’s sex appeal comment (it is entirely consistent with his well-known view about women), is his refusal to apologise if it caused offence. Calling it exuberance is astonishing. So if a man makes a sexist remark in the workplace, he just say, “sorry, I was just being exuberant”

    Unbelievable. And he only behaves like this because he knows he can, and will, get away with it

  • 68
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    and this

    There’s no economic necessity in a $22 billion surplus. Government doesn’t have a dollar of its own. It’s the people’s money and, beyond a margin for prudence, it should be returned to the people via suitable spending or tax cuts.

  • 69
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    Good Morning

    First thing I saw this morning was Abbott presser :(

    However I quickly cheered up on hearing the questions. A journalist actually asking about Double Dissolutions and another about three cornered contests regarding preferences.

    No roll over swallow the Abbott guff. Maybe the sex appeal gaffe and international coverage have woken the Journo’s up.

  • 70
    Andrew
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    I’m a dad too, and I would never say something like that. Less so in front of my daughters.
    Disgraceful

  • 71
    Andrew
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:26 am | Permalink

    ABC radio was trying to downplay the sex appeal gaffe too, but at least they were discussing it I suppose

  • 72
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    The Dad comment is an excuse. No apology for any possible offence.

  • 73
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    Oh dear

    I’ve never been into making money for money’s sake and while I think it is important that the national government promote and develop a strong economy, it’s by no means the only or even, at every point, the main task of government

  • 74
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:29 am | Permalink

    Andrew

    For her Last comment Virginia Trioli just read out a tweet making the exact same comment as you did about “Dad Moments”

  • 75
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:29 am | Permalink

    Abbott on taxes

    In December 2009, Tony Abbott promised that there would be no new taxes.

    Tony Abbott: “Whether it’s a stealth tax (like) the emissions trading scheme, whether it’s an upfront and straight forward tax like a carbon tax, there will not be any new taxes as part of the Coalition’s policies”.

    Followed soon after
    In March 2010, on International Women’s Day, Tony Abbott announced his Paid Parental Leave scheme, which is to be funded by a 1.5% levy (tax) on businesses with a taxable income of $5 million or more.

  • 76
    mikehilliard
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    The term BONED brings up so many gross images in my mind, it’s a real gutter comment.

  • 77
    Andrew
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    It surprises me that Abbott has not apologies. He always does after his gaffes.

    What is the possible reason for calling this a Dad moment? Its certainly a real-Tony moment.

    What are his advisors thinking?

  • 78
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    On preferences Kim Carr was interviewed on 702Sydney today.
    He made it plain that Labor will direct preferences for its political advantage seat by seat.

    Good to see Labor not letting the LNP dictate its preference dealing.

  • 79
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    Tony Abbott was one of those responsible for starting Pollie Pedal which has gone on to raise around $2.5 million for charities.

    That is certainly a commendable effort.

    What isn’t so commendable is the fact that Tony Abbott (and possibly other politicians) claim expenses from the taxpayers of Australia for this charity work.

    For the 2010 Pollie Pedal, Tony Abbott claimed $1439.00 in expenses.

    For the 2011 Pollie Pedal, Tony Abbott claimed $3,657.00 in expenses.

    For someone who claims that Governments must live within their means, Tony Abbott certainly has no problem taking taxpayers money for his “charity” work.

  • 80
    Andrew
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:34 am | Permalink

    AussieAchmed, I await the News Ltd front pages
    Imagine, for a moment if it was Rudd that did this??

    As someone said yesterday, if the sex appeal comment helps energise and win back over disaffected Gillard supporters to the Labor camp, then it has achieved a good thing.

  • 81
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:34 am | Permalink

    His character and lies just mount up

    On the afternoon of January 30, 2013, Tony Abbott appeared at a hastily convened press conference in response to the announcement by Julia Gillard that there would be an election on September 14, 2013.

    This is what Tony Abbott said:

    It’s notable that apart from actually naming the election date, the only real statement in the Prime Ministers Press Club speech was the statement that the Australian people needed to pay more tax. That you, the people, are not taxed enough.

    this was a blatant lie.

    At no stage during Julia Gillard’s National Press Club Speech, which you can read in full here, did she say “that the Australian people needed to pay more tax” or “the people, are not taxed enough”.

  • 82
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    Where is this supposed sex appeal??

    Sexist

  • 83
    Andrew
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    What we have seen with sex appeal gate is that the OM do their level best to shield Abbott from any negative publicity, and it is up to social media to get these stories going.

    Now, how would the OM have reacted if Rudd had referred to a candidate’s sex appeal, not that he ever would.

  • 84
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    A good reason NOT to vote for Abbott

    Tony Abbott claims he will leave the country if he loses the election

    If I don’t win this election I’ll have to leave the country.

    Source: Adelaide Now – February 1, 2013

  • 85
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    Abbott has shown his insecurity. He is scared of a 2010 repeat. He knows he would lose in negotiations as “people skills” apparently does not include negotiating.

  • 86
    Rossmore
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    Sex appeal …. Tone like Howard is stuck in the 50s

    http://thehoopla.com.au/hey-tony-1950s-called/

  • 87
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    And then there’s the back flip

    Tony Abbott will take votes wherever he can get them

    I am a politician and I will take votes wherever I can get them and I’m happy to get preferences as well – green and other preferences.

    Source: Interview on 3AW Radio, January 15, 2010

  • 88
    mikehilliard
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    Abbott’s rhetoric about not doing any deals with the Greens is all designed so that if he wins the election he can use them as an excuse not to rescind the carbon levy. He will never go to a DD election because IF he is elected it will be by such a close margin that he would not risk it.

  • 89
    izatso?
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    sean cried, *desperately* projecting, seeking to excuse his sexist overlord.

    …. emphasis here on the ‘desperate’ …..

  • 90
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:42 am | Permalink

    On the Hanson Slush Fund

    Tony Abbott thinks there are some things the public has no right to know.

    “There are some things the public has no particular right to know.” he said

    Source: The Sydney Morning Herald – September 2003

  • 91
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:42 am | Permalink

    Tony Abbott had an “exuberant moment” because he’s becoming more confident of walking it in. Consequently, his handlers will be scrambling to keep control. It was interesting that by evening, he had been provided with his “exuberant” explanation and had learnt it by heart, so that in response to different journos he was able to repeat himself exactly, and then walk away.

    Joe Hockey trying to pretend that Abbott had called him sexy too, was pathetic. And as for Pru Goward, a former (supposedly) anti-discrimination Commissioner – she would have been better not to join in the conversation.

  • 92
    liyana
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:42 am | Permalink

    Only adolescent schoolboys use the word ‘boned’. Oh and probably Tony Abbott in a ‘dad moment’

  • 93
    mikehilliard
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    Asked my OH last night how she would feel about anyone at her work describing her as having sex appeal, I shan’t repeat her words or William will ban me.

  • 94
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:44 am | Permalink

    izatso,

    It seems to me lefties have a double standard. They consider calling someone as having sex appeal as being sexist.

    But if they comment that a woman is ugly and they don’t see the sex appeal… well hell.. thats alright, thats okay, thats the leftie double standards way!

  • 95
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:44 am | Permalink

    liyana

    And Eddie McGuire?

  • 96
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    The big question is where are the Liberals costings?

    We’ve all seen the glossy propaganda pamphlet full of a whole lot of rhetoric but short on substance.

    The substance for all those aspirations needs to made available to the public by the Liberals coming clean on their costings

  • 97
    guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    Sean

    izatso has it right. Desperation reeks from you

  • 98
    liyana
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    Lizzie- I forgot Eddie- mercifully I rarely think of him

  • 99
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    AA

    Yep. The focus needs to be on the Liberal costings

  • 100
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    The big question is where are the Liberals costings?

    Nobody cares because we have seen Labors big $30 Billion Dollar Blackhole and we know the Coalition are much better economic managers.

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