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Election guide and BludgerTrack review

The Poll Bludger’s guide to the 150 House of Representatives electorates is now in business. Also featured: a closer look at the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s movements since the start of the campaign.

The Poll Bludger’s federal election guide is now live and accessible from the link on the sidebar. Featured are profiles of all 150 House of Representatives electorates, in one shape or another. Comprehensive profiles are featured for Labor seats up to around 12% in margin and Coalition seats up to around 3%. Much of the content will be familiar to those of you who have been following Seat of the Week over the past year, although ongoing political tumult has required a considerable amount of revision. Things remain to be fleshed out for some of the safe Labor seats and a lot of the non-marginal Coalition ones, but at the very least each page comes equipped with candidate lists and graphics showing census results and voting history.

A review of BludgerTrack is in order while I’m here, as we now have a full week of campaign polling after yesterday’s slightly delayed publication of Essential Reserch. It’s clear that the evenly matched polling which followed the return of Kevin Rudd, and which was starting to look alarmingly sticky from a Coalition perspective, has unpeeled over the past fortnight. Close observation suggests this has not entirely been a phenomenon of the election campaign, the Coalition having already pulled ahead over the weekend of an election date announcement which came on the Sunday, after much of the polling had already been conducted. Aggregating the polling over the period has the Coalition already a shade over 51% on two-party preferred, to which they added perhaps a little under 1% over the first week of the campaign. The Greens seem to have made a neglible dividend out of the government’s harder line, their vote being stuck in the 8% to 9% range on BludgerTrack since the beginning of June.

Looking at the progress of state breakdowns over that time, the outstanding change is a 4% swing away from Labor in all-important Queensland, consistent with the notion of a “sugar hit” that got added impetus from a home-state feel-good factor, and is now fading across the board. After showing as many as six gains for Labor in Queensland in the weeks after Rudd’s return, Labor’s yield on the BludgerTrack projection is now at zero, and briefly fell into the negative. So it’s not hard to imagine that Labor strategy meetings last week might have been spent contemplating ways to hold back the Queensland tide, and easy to understand why the name of Peter Beattie might have come up. The most recent data points suggest this may indeed have improved Labor’s position by as much as 3%, but it will be a bit longer before this shows up on BludgerTrack, if indeed it doesn’t prove illusory.

Elsewhere, Labor support looks to have come off to the tune of 1%-2% in New South Wales and South Australia and perhaps slightly less in Victoria. The interesting exception is Western Australia, where there has essentially been no change on a result which has Labor well in the hunt to poach two Liberal seats. The main political story out of the west over this period has been hostile reaction to a post-election state budget highlighted the a bungled cut to an excessively popular solar panel subsidy scheme. This has made the Barnett government the target of public attacks from federal MPs who have been open in their concern about federal electoral impacts. It may perhaps be worth noting that Western Australia is the only state without a daily News Limited tabloid.

A Newspoll result on best party to handle asylum seekers has been the most interesting item of attitudinal polling to emerge over the past week, since a point of comparison is available from a few weeks ago rather than the pre-history of the Gillard era. Whereas the Coalition fell on this measure from from 47% to 33% after the government announced its Papua New Guinea solution, the latest poll has it back up to 42%. Labor has nonetheless maintained its gain from the previous poll, having progressed from 20% to 26% to 27%, with the slack coming from “another party” and “don’t know”. Even so, the re-establishment of a solid double-digit lead to the Coalition is interesting, and a challenge to the notion that the recent poll move away from Labor has entirely been down to a “fading sugar hit”.

UPDATE (Morgan phone poll): Morgan has a small-sample phone poll of 569 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday night which headlines results on personal ratings, but if you burrow into the detail there’s a wildly off-trend result on voting intention with the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 52% for the Coalition, 31% for Labor and 9% for the Greens. Reflecting what was obviously a bad sample for Labor, the poll has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister narrowing to 46-43 from 52-36 at the last such poll a month ago. Rudd is down five on approval to 40% and up nine on disapproval to 49%, while Abbott is up four to 42% and down six to 48%.

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  • 1451
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 1:27 am | Permalink

    Carey – No doubt demanding that someone should apoligise to someone else.

  • 1452
    mari
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 1:55 am | Permalink

    CTAR1
    Are you over here ie the other side of the world, I though you were safely encouched in Canberra at the Moment?

    BTW Bought a Carlton Bag 1/2 price 68cm 4 wheeler job

    Crikey Whitey are you around what dd you do about Twitter?

  • 1453
    mari
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 2:40 am | Permalink

    OK I ca take a hint buzz off, I know it has been a pretty warm day here inEdinburgh “grin: but I did have a shower and put some deodorant on, true! Go over to Twitter it never sleeps

  • 1454
    rummel
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 6:38 am | Permalink

    Another day and more gaff talk…. Starting to seem like a strategy.

  • 1455
    Andrew
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 6:42 am | Permalink

    1365- that defence of Abbott is hilarious. it’s all about CONTEXT, of course. the king if slogans, exaggerations and taking things out of context should now be afforded the privilege that he never gives his opponents? Yeah, right.

    the fact remains- he’s ahead, and unless something dramatic happens, he will win. It’s not sufficient to say voters will look at him and not vote for him as PM- look at the ground he made up in the last campaign, including the late swing. He must be a drag on their vote but not enoug to lose it for them.

    Heard Windsor on ABC radio yesterday say wtte that he never said he had a recording of Abbott, but I was sure he held up his phone and taunted Abbott with it during parliament. doesn’t seem like anything there.

    The costings issue will be muddied and the OM will not pressure Abbott sufficiently to have his properly costed by treasury.

    So what could the bombshell be?

    Heard Windsor asked on ABC radio yesterday if he has a recording of Abbott and would he release it and he said wtte he hasn’t said he has a recording. I’m sure he held up his phone and taunted Abbott during parliament? Anyway, doesn’t seem
    any hope there for a b

  • 1456
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 6:45 am | Permalink

    barry’Farrell seems could be facing icac

    looks lke Abbott words may come back and haunt him

  • 1457
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 6:48 am | Permalink

    Probably wont see Mod lib or other coalition supporters getting excited over obied anymore

    With Barry O’farrell now invovled

  • 1458
    frednk
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 6:49 am | Permalink

    Really don’t have to read much more:

    http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/

  • 1459
    BK
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:10 am | Permalink

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Mark Kenny calls the election as a win to Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/rudds-honeymoon-just-a-sugar-hit-after-all-20130814-2rwr1.html
    Not well expressed, but Lathan’s point is valid.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/mark-latham-gaffe-over-tony-abbott-sex-appeal-comment-20130814-2rx8e.html
    And Paul Sheehan reckons Dobell is back in play.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/shock-spurt-of-sex-appeal-puts-dobell-in-play-20130814-2rwmt.html
    Tim Colebatch reviews the budget position,
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/budget-forecasts-not-set-in-stone-20130814-2rwvy.html
    What’s a lazy $4b to flakes like Hockey?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/modelling-finds-4b-hole-in-coalition-climate-policy-20130814-2rww0.html
    This is sick. Essendon playes were given a mystery Mexican drug via a chiropractor!
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/bombers-injected-with-mystery-mexican-substance-20130814-2rx6m.html
    WOW!! Mark Latham really unloads (constructively) on the policy paucity of the Opposition and the disgusting efforts of the press corps.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/coalition_asleep_at_the_policy_wheel_J8HwvtRde3Bp33DcObFRXJ
    At last! Labor is going to sink the boots in.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/labor-turnaround-targets-abbott-for-allout-assault-20130814-2rwvz.html
    Yes, it says a lot for editors and journos doesn’t it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/political-satire-a-pillar-of-democracy-20130814-2rwqz.html
    If only!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/nobel-laureate-challenges-parties-on-science-20130814-2rvnr.html

  • 1460
    BK
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:11 am | Permalink

    Section 2 . . .

  • 1461
    BK
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:11 am | Permalink

    Section 2 . . .

    Cathy Wilcox on the “independent public schools” mantra.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    David Rowe on the sidelining of the Greens and “dad moments”.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    MUST SEE! David Pope conflates SSM with both leaders’ commitment to eschew agreements with minor parties (read Greens). And have a look at the cleaning lady.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg on the debates stand off.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  • 1462
    Andrew
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:16 am | Permalink

    $4b hole in coalitions climate policy?

    I presume that’s on the front page of the papers ?

  • 1463
    sprocket_
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:21 am | Permalink

    @TonyAbbottMHR: Yes, I really did chat to Katy Perry! Tune in to 2Day FM at 7.20am #KJshow

    An early candidate for Abbott gaffe of the day….

  • 1464
    BK
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:25 am | Permalink

    And from the Land of the Free -

    The “new old” are deserting the Repugs.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/14/you-cant-count-on-us-anymore-gop/
    Bill O’Reilly. Enough said.
    http://crooksandliars.com/john-amato/bill-oreilly-smears-food-stamps-encoura
    Gun safelty instructor shoots student in class. Will they EVER learn?
    http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/gun-safety-instruction-shoots-student
    Check out the crazy logic in this proposition from Kansas!
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/08/14/1231209/-Anti-abortion-zealots-ask-for-Witchita-clinic-to-be-closed-citing-possibility-of-violence
    This is not good!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/14/sequestration-cuts_n_3749432.html

  • 1465
    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:26 am | Permalink

    Andrew

    I remind you PJK was 7 points behind the eve of the

    election and won

    there was no mobiles to call only
    land lines now we have
    NO mobiles in polls

    I am rather surprised at you

  • 1466
    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:28 am | Permalink

    and polls
    look at morgan yesterday

    we want know the state of the pols till polling day

    u know I am ever the skeptic about polls

    considering events?

  • 1467
    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:31 am | Permalink

    remember to Andrew a poll

    in not a polling booth

    when u even have the abc running ridiculous poll s on
    who won the debate and we have
    abbott winning

    on their tax funded abc poll

    I hoping eventually polls will be baned or
    through no land line s

    just disappear
    what a wonderful day that will be

    they are for brainwashing

    and stiring and did Mr bowe use that morgan poll in his tracker

    I would hope not

  • 1468
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:32 am | Permalink

    My Say

    LOL

    Yeah that morgan poll admitted there was newscorp influence to get the result

  • 1469
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:32 am | Permalink

    sprocket_
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:21 am | PERMALINK
    @TonyAbbottMHR: Yes, I really did chat to Katy Perry! Tune in to 2Day FM at 7.20am #KJshow

    An early candidate for Abbott gaffe of the day….

    ———–

    lol sprocket

  • 1470
    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:43 am | Permalink

    abbott loves highways

    here we are trying to get people to use transport
    and what does he want to give
    A
    HIGHWWAY UP THE MIDLANDS,,,,, WE TRAVEL ON THE ROAD A LOT
    SOME DAYS YOUR LUCKY TO SEE A CAR COMING TOWARDS YOU
    there is lots of areas to pass and mostly 2 lanes here and there all ready

    and HE WANTS TO UP DATE THE HOBART AIRPORT

    there was an up date done about 5 years ago,

    have NO idea why that would want updating

    and what does that do
    most likely bring in mainland worders

    we see that often here

    so no good at all

    waiting on more from labor I think more will come

    good to see abbotts mobs stupid ideas

    we went to Launceston last fortnight and we both remarked how quite it was

    went up to 20 k with out seeing a car

    and we need a 4 lane bloody highway

    the liberals have all the wrong priorities
    sick

  • 1471
    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:45 am | Permalink

    maquire

    whats that about please the gaffe

  • 1472
    lefty e
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:48 am | Permalink

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/14/funding-gap-abbott-climate-plan

    Modeling shows LNPs ‘Direct Action’ plan a complete shambles: underfunded by 4b, will increase emissions, can’t work.

    This people are just BS-artists.

  • 1473
    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:49 am | Permalink

    YES BK

    MARK Kenny

    isn’t he news ltd

    well of course they will say that to brainwash people

  • 1474
    Andrew
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:50 am | Permalink

    my say it’s hard to be optimistic with Abbott having the OM more firmly on side than ever. My rosemour side showing this morning!

    51/49 can be made up but the question is how ?

  • 1475
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:51 am | Permalink

    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:45 am | PERMALINK
    maquire

    whats that about please the gaffe

    ————————

    Im not quite sure what it was actually about, maybe sprocket or someone else who has more details could give more enlightment on it

  • 1476
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:52 am | Permalink

    Morning all. Thanks for the links BK.

    WOW!! Mark Latham really unloads (constructively) on the policy paucity of the Opposition and the disgusting efforts of the press corps.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/coalition_asleep_at_the_policy_wheel_J8HwvtRde3Bp33DcObFRXJ

    I really do wonder how the media will behave after the election. We know it won’t be another minority government so will the media continue its elevation of the LOTO (most likely to be the Labor leader) to equivalent status of the PM?

    Will the media continue to go soft on Abbott’s government like it’s done the coalition in opposition for the last 3 years?

    I guess time will tell.

  • 1477
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    Morning all

    I agree with M Latham and finnigans on twitter

    Methinks Latham is right - dailytelegraph.com.au/news/special-f… - #SexAppealGate was a deliberate tactic to win western Sydney sexist male votes

  • 1478
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:54 am | Permalink

    Andrew
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:50 am | PERMALINK

    51/49 can be made up but the question is how ?

    ——————————————–

    The media driven opinion polling arent telling the reality , who knows the way the pro coalition media continues to defend abbott out of the public spotlight and the propaganda its going on with

    Labor is probably in front

  • 1479
    mari
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:55 am | Permalink

    Andrew 1474
    Think you are being realistic doesn’t mean you are giving up but know the uphill battle

  • 1480
    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:55 am | Permalink

    will have to find at least another $4bn for his climate policy or else break his pledge to cut emissions by 5% by 2020 and instead allow them to increase by 9%, according to new modelling suggesting the Coalition’s Direct Action plan cannot work.

    The Coalition insists it will provide no more than the money it has allocated to buy emission reductions from polluters who voluntarily apply to its emissions reduction fund – $2.5bn over the next four years – and, according to figures in the original 2009 policy document, almost $5bn by 2020.

    But a devastating analysis by the Climate Institute, based on modelling from Sinclair Knight Merz/MMA and Monash University’s Centre of Policy Studies, found at least $4.07bn more would be required to meet the target.

    Summary of TCI Modelling http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/14/funding-gap-abbott-climate-plan

    =========================================================

    MY SAY

    well u would have to think 20 PERCENT GST FOR THE LIBS TO COVER THEIR MISTAKES

    unless of course they have no intention of doing any thing

    I say that’s more like it

    bullshit artists?

  • 1481
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:56 am | Permalink

    Modeling shows LNPs ‘Direct Action’ plan a complete shambles: underfunded by 4b, will increase emissions, can’t work.

    At last! I have been going on about the costs and inefficiencies of Direct(in)Action for nearly 4 years now!!!

  • 1482
    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:57 am | Permalink

    well WHAT AN INSULT TO WESTERN SYDNEY

  • 1483
    lefty e
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    Boof nails it:

    Another factor favouring the opposition is press gallery compliance. Throughout this term of parliament, journalists have been expecting a change of government. They have been reluctant to scrutinise the Coalition for fear of having their sources and information flow cut off by an incoming Abbott administration.

    Self-interested cowardice is the prevailing methodology.

    Thus, Australia is sleepwalking into the election of a new government poorly prepared for office.

  • 1484
    mari
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    Hi Confessions
    anything from Chris Hadfield today to send me off to sleep with?

  • 1485
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 7:59 am | Permalink

    mari

    Trust all is well.

    The state of play is hard to read at oresent. I have Observed a little of Rudd on the campaign trail. He is very good in ths format. Much more so than any other pollie going around. Is Rudd’s campaigning skills going to be enough to get Labor over the line? Who knows

  • 1486
    Socrates
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 8:00 am | Permalink

    Morning all. As a Sturt resident I was unsurprised yet once again dissappointed to see Chris Pyne’s schoolboy response to the police cautioning a Fairfax staffer and campaign supporter for interfering with rival Rick Sarre’s election posters:
    [The woman works as a journalist for Fairfax Media and has not responded to calls.

    Fairfax says it has been looking into the complaint but will not provide further comment.

    Mr Pyne says she was actually helping out and is proud of her.

    “I am absolutely confident that no wrongdoing has occurred and I understand that she will be entirely cleared,” he said.

    “She was fixing them for the Labor Party because they’d been so poorly put up”
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-14/liberal-volunteer-was-27fixing27-labor-election-posters/4887174?section=sa

    What a pathetic reply, and how typical of Chris Pyne, the boyish face who has never grown up.

    Also as bad as Pyne’s response was Fairfax’s. Why was the “journalist” not named? Why has Fairfax not reported this story? Why has this “journalist” not acknowledged her position to avoid any conflict of interest in her reporting?

  • 1487
    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 8:00 am | Permalink

    WISH I did not have to repeat
    this
    keating was 7 seven poi behind so they said???
    eve of election and won

    93

    we 4 so they say

    and level,

    I don’t understand people pessimissim

    id rather be there than in front

    to be honest

    people pay more attention
    when we are bit behind

    being in front put people in a fool s paradise

    like many marathons ive watched

  • 1488
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 8:01 am | Permalink

    Btw the talk in Melbourne ia currently being dominated by the Essendon FC supplement saga. Politics is not front and centre.

  • 1489
    mari
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 8:02 am | Permalink

    Victoria 1485
    Fly out or Dubai on Sunday night 4 bights there and home
    Thanks for that update on state of play,we can only hope

  • 1490
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 8:03 am | Permalink

    Socrates

    You can bet your bottom dollar that if Chrissy Pyne was a Labor MP, it would be front page news.

  • 1491
    Phil Vee
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 8:03 am | Permalink

    Abbott’s gaffe strategy is the same sort of thing that BjelkePetersen Petersen used to do. It is aimed at Coalition voters and meant to counter the Rudd “anti politician” meme.

    BjelkePetersen was a master at it, going to a Press conference with a few phrases on a card and repeating the message with bumpf and filler to fill up time. The rest of Australia burst out laughing but it was aimed at the local audience and they understood what he was doing. Audiences like it because it undermines the journos and makes the pollie seem normal. Conservatives are already running this line that TA is a normal man. Abbot is also pointedly telling Rudd to “man up” which goes down a treat. On such trivia this election will hang.

  • 1492
    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    western Sydney people

    could be appalled,

    people don’t like their area TARNISHED

  • 1493
    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    Peterson

    WAS NOT RESPECTED IN OTHER STATES

    I CAN TELL U THAT

    so it doesn’t work every where

    he was one of the big reasons a lot of Tasmanians
    never travelled to qld

  • 1494
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    Phil Vee

    Agree. Although social media was not around back then, and now it is not the local audience who hear this crap

  • 1495
    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    well I hope twiter is on to the gaffs are
    done on purpose

    he is clever by half doesn mean people like it

    idot

  • 1496
    Socrates
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    Victoria

    No doubt. Meanwhile Pyne, who has done nothing for Sturt as an electorate in his entire time in Parliament, has not made a single promise that he will do anything of substance for it in the next three years either. What did we do to deserve him?

  • 1497
    lefty e
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    That’s right Phil Vee

    Hence Rudd must counter QLD – style:

    ‘Ill tell you what has sex appeal – costed policies !

    Ill ….etc – record low interest rates!

  • 1498
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    Morning mari. No Chris Hadfield overnight I’m afraid.

    It mustn’t be long until you’re back home?

  • 1499
    Gary
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    Anyone calling the election now is a fool.

  • 1500
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    Socrates

    Chrissy Pyne is odious

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