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Federal Election 2013

Aug 18, 2013

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Below is an attempt to unravel the Senate preference tickets which were released today, which will be progressively added to as I work my way through each state. The idea is to boil down each preference ticket to its essence by removing parties I consider to have effectively no chance of winning seats (though with preference harvesting you can never entirely know), and to consider only the third major party candidates since in normal circumstances the first two are elected immediately and the fourth don’t stand a realistic chance. Note that parties are allowed to submit three preference tickets and have their votes divide evenly between each, which means there are occasions noted in italics where explanation is required as to how they will divide.

NEW SOUTH WALES

Liberal Democrats: One Nation; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Family First; Democrats; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; Christian Democrats; Labor; Greens.

No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics: Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Family First; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

Democratic Labour Party: One Nation; Christian Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Family First; Palmer United Party; Shooters & Fishers; Labor; Coalition; Wikileaks; Democrats; Sex Party; Greens.

Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues): Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Sex Party; Family First; Democrats; Wikileaks; Christian Democrats; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

Voluntary Euthanasia Party: Sex Party; Democrats; Wikileaks; Greens; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Labor; Coalition; Christian Democrats.

Group F (Andrew Whalan): Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Greens; Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Christian Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Sex Party; One Nation.

Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party: Democrats; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; two-third Greens, Labor; one-third Labor, Greens; Shooters & Fishers; two-third One Nation, Family First; one-third Family First, One Nation; Family First; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Christian Democrats.

Carers Alliance: Democrats; Coalition; Wikileaks; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Family First; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Sex Party; Greens.

The Wikileaks Party: Sex Party; Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Greens; Labor; Family First; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Rise Up Australia Party: One Nation; Christian Democrats; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Labor; Liberal Democrats; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Greens.

Future Party: Wikileaks; Sex Party; Democrats; Greens; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group): Christian Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; One Nation; Family First; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; Wikileaks; Liberal Democrats; Sex Party; Greens.

Labor: Greens; Shooters & Fishers; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Sex Party; Democrats; Family First; Christian Democrats; Palmer United Party; Coalition; One Nation.

Katter’s Australian Party: One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Christian Democrats; Palmer United Party; Wikileaks; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Democrats; Coalition; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.

Australian Voice: Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Sex Party; Democrats; Family First; Christian Democrats; Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Sex Party: Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Wikileaks; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Greens; Labor; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Family First; Christian Democrats.

Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party: Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Family First; Democrats; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Labor; Coalition; Wikileaks; Greens.

Greens: Wikileaks; Democrats; Sex Party; Labor; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Coalition; Liberal Democrats; Family First; Christian Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation.

Palmer United Party: Family First; Democrats; Coalition; Liberal Democrats; Wikileaks; Christian Democrats; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Labor.

Building Australia Party: Democrats; Christian Democrats; Sex Party; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Uniting Australia Party: Christian Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Democrats; Family First; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens; Palmer United Party; One Nation.

Stop The Greens: Liberal Democrats; One Nation; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Family First; Democrats; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; Christian Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Smokers Rights: Liberal Democrats; One Nation; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Family First; Democrats; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; Christian Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Bullet Train For Australia: Democrats; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Christian Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Greens; Labor; Coalition; One Nation.

Liberal: Christian Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Democrats; Sex Party; Labor; Wikileaks; Greens; One Nation.

Australian Protectionist Party: Katter’s Australian Party; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Palmer United Party; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Wikileaks; Liberal Democrats; Sex Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Animal Justice Party: Democrats; Sex Party; Family First; Wikileaks; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers.

Australia First Party: Family First; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Christian Democrats; Greens.

Australian Independents: Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Sex Party; Democrats; Family First; Wikileaks; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Greens; Coalition; Labor.

Drug Law Reform: Democrats; Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; Wikileaks; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Socialist Equality Party: Three completely different tickets lodged, apparently with the intention of conferring as little advantage as possible on any given party.

Australian Democrats: Katter’s Australian Party; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Greens; Palmer United Party; half Labor, half Coalition; Christian Democrats; Family First; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal Democrats.

Group AG (Tom Wang): Palmer United Party; Labor; Coalition; Democrats; Greens; Wikileaks; Liberal Democrats; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Family First Party: Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Christian Democrats; Palmer United Party; Wikileaks; Coalition; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.

Stable Population Party: Democrats; Sex Party; Family First; Wikileaks; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; Christian Democrats; Liberal Democrats; one-third Greens, Labor, Coalition; one-third Labor, Greens, Coalition; one-third Coalition, Greens Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party.

Shooters and Fishers: One Nation; Christian Democrats; Family First; Democrats; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Labor; Coalition; Wikileaks; Greens.

Stop CSG: Wikileaks; Democrats; Sex Party; Family First; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Palmer United Party; Christian Democrats; Coalition; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Shooters & Fishers.

The Australian Republicans: Liberal Democrats; Sex Party; Democrats; Coalition; Wikileaks; Greens; Labor; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democrats; Shooters & Fishers.

Socialist Alliance: Greens; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Coalition; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Christian Democrats; Family First; One Nation.

Non-Custodial Parents Party (Equal Parenting): One Nation; Wikileaks; Family First; Christian Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Coalition; Democrats; Sex Party; Labor; Greens.

Pirate Party: Greens; Wikileaks; Democrats; Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Christian Democrats; Family First; One Nation.

Secular Party of Australia: Democrats; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Greens; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democrats.

Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party: One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Sex Party; Democrats; Wikileaks; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens; Christian Democrats.

One Nation: Katter’s Australian Party; Christian Democrats; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal Democrats; Sex Party; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Wikileaks; half Coalition, half Labor; Greens.

VICTORIA

Rise Up Australia: DLP; Australian Christians; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Labor; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Greens.

Senator Online: Australian Christians; Family First; Sex Party; Shooters & Fishers; Wikileaks; Democrats; DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Greens; Labor; Coalition.

Coalition: half Family First, half DLP; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Sex Party; Democrats; Labor; Wikileaks; Greens.

Help End Marijuana Prohibition: Democrats; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; two-thirds Labor, one-third Greens; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Australian Christians.

Family First: Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; DLP; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.

Country Alliance: Katter’s Australian Party; Sex Party; DLP; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; Labor; Australian Christians; Palmer United Party; Family First; Democrats; Wikileaks; Greens.

Secular Party: Democrats; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; Family First; Australian Christians.

No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics: DLP; Family First; Australian Christians; Sex Party; Shooters & Fishers; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

Bank Reform Party: Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Sex Party; Democrats; Wikileaks; DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

Stable Population Party: Democrats; Family First; Sex Party; Australian Christians; Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; one-third Greens, Labor, Coalition; one-third Labor, Coalition, Greens; one-third Coalition, Greens, Labor; DLP; Shooters & Fishers.

Australian Fishing & Lifestyle Party: Family First; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Sex Party; DLP; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Wikileaks; Greens.

Shooters & Fishers: Family First; Australian Christians; Sex Party; DLP; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Wikileaks; Greens.

Building Australia Party: Democrats; Family First; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Australian Voice Party: Sex Party; Wikileaks; Family First; Australian Christians; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; DLP; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Australian Independents: Democrats; Australian Christians; Family First; DLP; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Greens; Coalition; Labor.

Greens: Wikileaks; Sex Party; Democrats; Labor; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Coalition; DLP; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians.

Group T (Joseph Toscano): Wikileaks; Greens; Labor; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Sex Party; Coalition; Australian Christians; DLP; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party; Family First.

Stop CSG: Democrats; Sex Party; Family First; Wikileaks; Greens; Labor; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; DLP.

Katter’s Australian Party: DLP; Australian Christians; Palmer United Party; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Wikileaks; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; Greens; Sex Party.

Palmer United Party: Family First; Democrats; Australian Christians; Greens; Coalition; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; Labor; DLP.

Animal Justice Party: Democrats; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; DLP; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers.

Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party: Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Sex Party; Democrats; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; DLP; Australian Christians; half Coalition, half Labor; Greens.

Wikileaks: Sex Party; Democrats; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; DLP.

Australian Democrats: Sex Party; Family First; Wikileaks; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; half Labor, half Coalition; DLP; Shooters & Fishers.

Sex Party: Wikileaks; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Greens; Coalition; Palmer United Party; DLP; Australian Christians; Family First.

Labor: Greens; Sex Party; Democrats; Wikileaks; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; DLP; Family First; Coalition.

Drug Law Reform: Democrats; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Greens; half Coalition, half Labor; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; DLP.

Bullet Train for Australia: Democrats; Australian Christians; Sex Party; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Labor; Greens; Coalition.

Australian Christians: Family First; DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Labor; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Wikileaks; Greens; Sex Party.

Citizens Electoral Council: Family First; DLP; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; half Democrats, Labor, Coalition, Greens, Palmer United Party; half Palmer United Party, Coalition, Democrats, Labor, Greens; Sex Party.

Group AJ (Bob Nicholls): DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Wikileaks; Greens; Democrats; Palmer United Party; Labor; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Sex Party; Coalition; Family First.

Socialist Equality Party: Three completely different tickets lodged, apparently with the intention of conferring as little advantage as possible on any given party.

Pirate Party: Democrats; Wikileaks; Greens; Sex Party; DLP; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; Family First.

Democratic Labour Party: Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Palmer United Party; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Greens.

QUEENSLAND

Animal Justice Party: Democrats; Family First; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers.

Liberal National Party of Queensland: Australian Christians; Family First; Palmer United Party; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Democrats; Labor; Greens; One Nation.

Group C (Peter Keioskie): Liberal Democrats; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; One Nation; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party; Greens; Coalition; Democrats; Labor.

Australian Independents: One Nation; Democrats; Australian Christians; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Labor.

Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party: Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Greens; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Family First; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Australian Christians.

Australian Voice: One Nation; Democrats; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal Democrats; Family First; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Greens.

Australian Labor Party: Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Democrats; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Family First; Coalition; One Nation.

One Nation: Family First; Liberal Democrats; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Greens; half Coalition, half Labor.

Australia First Party: Family First; Australian Christians; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

Socialist Equality Party: Three completely different tickets lodged, apparently with the intention of conferring as little advantage as possible on any given party.

Australian Protectionist Party: Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Building Australia Party: Democrats; Australian Christians; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues): Australian Christians; Democrats; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Greens; Labor.

Liberal Democrats: Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Palmer United Party; One Nation; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Labor; Australian Christians; Greens.

Stop The Greens: Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Palmer United Party; One Nation; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Labor; Australian Christians; Greens.

Pirate Party: Democrats; Greens; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; Family First; One Nation.

Greens: Democrats; Labor; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Coalition; One Nation; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers.

Stop CSG: Democrats; Family First; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Australian Christians; Palmer United Party; Coalition; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Shooters & Fishers.

Stable Population Party: Democrats; Family First; One Nation; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; one-third Greens, Labor, Coalition; one-third Labor, Coalition, Greens; one-third Coalition, Greens, Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party.

Australian Christians: Family First; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Liberal Democrats; Democrats; Greens.

Group U (Greg Rudd): Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; Labor; Australian Christians; Democrats; One Nation.

Katter’s Australian Party: One Nation; Australian Christians; Liberal Democrats; Family First; Palmer United Party; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

The Australian Republicans: Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Palmer United Party; One Nation; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Labor; Australian Christians; Greens.

Family First: One Nation; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Australian Democrats: Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Family First; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party; half Labor, half Coalition; Liberal Democrats; One Nation.

Democratic Labour Party (DLP): Australian Christians; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Labor; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Greens.

Sex Party: Democrats; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; Family First.

Shooters and Fishers: One Nation; Australian Christians; Family First; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Uniting Australia Party: Family First; Liberal Democrats; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Labor; Greens; Palmer United Party; One Nation.

Rise Up Australia Party: One Nation; Australian Christians; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Labor; Liberal Democrats; Greens.

No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics: Family First; One Nation; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party: Australian Christians; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Coalition; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Palmer United Party: Family First; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Coalition; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Democrats; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Labor.

Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party: One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; half Labor, half Coalition; Greens.

Smokers Rights: Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Palmer United Party; One Nation; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Labor; Australian Christians; Greens.

Secular Party of Australia: Democrats; Greens; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Family First; Australian Christians.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Wikileaks: Democrats; Nationals; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; One Nation; Labor; Australian Christians; Liberal; Palmer United Party; Family First; Shooters & Fishers.

Nationals: Liberal; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Democrats; Labor; One Nation; Greens.

Greens: Wikileaks; Democrats; Labor; Family First; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Nationals; Liberal; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation.

Stop The Greens: Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Nationals; Democrats; Liberal; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Labor; Greens; One Nation.

Stable Population Party: Democrats; Australian Christians; Wikileaks; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; One Nation; one-third Greens, Labor, Liberal; one-third Labor, Greens, Liberal; one-third Liberal, Greens, Labor; Nationals; Shooters & Fishers.

Socialist Equality Party: Three completely different tickets lodged, apparently with the intention of conferring as little advantage as possible on any given party.

Smokers Rights: Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Nationals; Democrats; Liberal; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Labor; Greens; One Nation.

Shooters and Fishers: Australian Christians; Family First; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Nationals; Labor; Wikileaks; One Nation; Greens.

Sex Party: Wikileaks; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Greens; Labor; Katter’s Australian Party; Nationals; Liberal; Palmer United Party; One Nation; Australian Christians; Family First.

Secular Party of Australia: Democrats; Wikileaks; Greens; Labor; Nationals; Liberal; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Family First; Australian Christians.

Rise Up Australia Party: Australian Christians; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal; Palmer United Party; Nationals; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Labor; Wikileaks; Greens; One Nation.

Palmer United Party: Family First; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Wikileaks; Democrats; Greens; Nationals; Liberal; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Labor.

No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics: Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Wikileaks; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Nationals; Democrats; Liberal; Labor; Greens.

Liberal Democrats: Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Nationals; Democrats; Liberal; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Labor; Greens; One Nation.

Liberal: Nationals; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Labor; Wikileaks; Greens; One Nation.

Katter’s Australian Party: Palmer United Party; One Nation; Democrats; Wikileaks; Family First; Liberal; Nationals; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Greens; Labor.

Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party: Democrats; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; One Nation; Nationals; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Australian Christians.

Family First Party: Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Nationals; Labor; Greens; One Nation.

Australian Voice Party: Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Wikileaks; Australian Christians; Democrats; One Nation; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Nationals; Liberal; Labor; Greens.

Australian Sports Party: Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Family First; Australian Christians; Nationals; Liberal; Greens; Labor; One Nation.

Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party: Shooters & Fishers; Family First; One Nation; Democrats; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; Nationals; half Labor, half Liberal; Greens.

Labor: Greens; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Wikileaks; Australian Christians; Family First; Nationals; Liberal; One Nation.

Australian Independents: Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Australian Christians; Family First; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Greens; Nationals; One Nation; Liberal; Labor.

Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party: Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Family First; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Nationals; Labor; Wikileaks; One Nation; Greens.

Australian Democrats: half Wikileaks, half Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Palmer United Party; half Liberal, half Labor; Nationals; One Nation; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians.

Australian Christians: Shooters & Fishers; Family First; One Nation; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal; Nationals; Labor; Democrats; Wikileaks; Greens.

Animal Justice Party: Democrats; Wikileaks; Family First; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; One Nation; Labor; Liberal; Nationals; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Socialist Equality Party: Three completely different tickets lodged, apparently with the intention of conferring as little advantage as possible on any given party.

Family First: Australian Christians; One Nation; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal; Labor; Nick Xenophon; Greens.

Australian Democrats: Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Nick Xenophon; Liberal; Labor; Family First; One Nation; Australian Christians.

Secular Party: Democrats; Nick Xenophon; Greens; Labor; Liberal; Katter’s Australian Party; One Nation; Family First; Australian Christians.

Liberal Democrats: Katter’s Australian Party; One Nation; Family First; Democrats; Liberal; Australian Christians; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Greens.

Palmer United Party: Nick Xenophon; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; Greens; Family First; Liberal; Democrats; One Nation; Labor.

Nick Xenophon Group (Ticket 1): Liberal; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Democrats; Labor; Greens; Australian Christians; One Nation.
Nick Xenophon Group (Ticket 2): Labor; Greens; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Liberal; Australian Christians; One Nation.

National Party: Nick Xenophon; Family First; Liberal; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; Labor; Democrats; One Nation; Greens.

Group I (Ribnga Green): Greens; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Liberal; Family First; Nick Xenophon; Australian Christians; One Nation.

Democratic Labour: Australian Christians; Family First; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; Nick Xenophon; Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Greens.

Rise Up Australia Party: One Nation; Australian Christians; Family First; Liberal; Nick Xenophon; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Group L (Dianah Meglich): Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; Greens; One Nation; Family First; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Liberal.

Country Alliance: Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal; Labor; One Nation; Democrats; Australian Christians; Family First; Nick Xenophon; Greens.

Sex Party: Democrats; One Nation; Greens; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal; Australian Christians; Family First.

Australian Independents: Family First; Democrats; One Nation; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Nick Xenophon; Liberal; Labor.

Greens: Democrats; Nick Xenophon; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Australian Christians; Family First; Liberal; One Nation.

Animal Justice Party: Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Nick Xenophon; Greens; Labor; Liberal; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians.

No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics: Australian Christians; One Nation; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Liberal; Nick Xenophon; Greens; Labor.

Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party: Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Labor; Family First; One Nation; Nick Xenophon; Liberal; Australian Christians.

Drug Law Reform: Democrats; Greens; Labor; Liberal; Nick Xenophon; Australian Christians; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First.

One Nation: One Nation; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; Democrats; Liberal; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Greens.

Stable Population Party: Democrats; Family First; Australian Christians; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; one-third Greens, Labor, Liberal; one-third Labor, Liberal, Greens; one-third Liberal, Greens, Labor; Nick Xenophon.

Australian Christians: One Nation; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal; Labor; Nick Xenophon; Democrats; Greens.

Shooters and Fishers: Family First; One Nation; Australian Christians; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Greens.

Katter’s Australian Party: Australian Christians; One Nation; Family First; Democrats; Nick Xenophon; Greens; Liberal; Labor.

Smokers Rights: Katter’s Australian Party; One Nation; Family First; Democrats; Liberal; Australian Christians; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Greens.

Voluntary Euthanasia Party: Democrats; One Nation; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Liberal; Australian Christians; Family First.

Australian Labor Party: Greens; Family First; Nick Xenophon; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Liberal; Australian Christians; One Nation.

Building Australia Party: Australian Christians; Family First; One Nation; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Nick Xenophon; Liberal; Labor; Greens.

Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party: Family First; Democrats; One Nation; Nick Xenophon; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; half Liberal, half Labor; Greens.

Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party: Family First; One Nation; Australian Christians; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Greens.

Liberal: Family First; Nick Xenophon; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Labor; Greens; One Nation.

TASMANIA

Country Alliance: Sex Party; Liberal; Katter’s Australian Party; DLP; Shooters & Fishers; Labor; Australian Christians; Palmer United Party; Family First; Greens.

Liberal Democrats: DLP; Family First; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Greens.

Labor: Greens; Shooters & Fishers; Sex Party; Family First; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; DLP; Liberal.

Rise Up Australia: DLP; Australian Christians; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Sex Party; Greens.

Liberal: Family First; DLP; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Sex Party; Greens.

Palmer United Party: Family First; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Sex Party; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal; Australian Christians; DLP; Labor.

Australian Christians: Family First; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; Liberal; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.

Democratic Labour Party: Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Labor; Sex Party; Greens.

Pirate Party: Greens; Sex Party; DLP; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; Family First.

Greens: Sex Party; Labor; Family First; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; DLP; Liberal; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers.

Help End Marijuana Prohibition: Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Greens; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; DLP; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Australian Christians.

Shooters & Fishers: Australian Christians; DLP; Sex Party; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Labor; Liberal; Greens.

Australian Independents: Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Sex Party; Australian Christians; DLP; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Liberal; Labor.

Sex Party: Shooters & Fishers; Labor; Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Liberal; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; DLP; Family First.

Senator Online: Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; DLP; Palmer United Party; Greens; Labor; Liberal.

Katter’s Australian Party: Family First; DLP; Australian Christians; Palmer United Party; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal; Greens; Labor; Sex Party.

No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics: Family First; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Labor; Liberal; Greens; DLP.

Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party: Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; DLP; Family First; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Labor; Liberal; Greens.

Stable Population Party: Sex Party; Australian Christians; Family First; DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; one-third Greens, Labor, Liberal; one-third Labor, Liberal, Greens; one-third Liberal, Greens, Labor; Shooters & Fishers.

Smokers Rights: Sex Party; DLP; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Greens.

Family First: Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.

Stop the Greens: DLP; Family First; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Greens.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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28 comments

28 thoughts on “Senate tickets unravelled

  1. Graeme

    So the ‘No Carbon Tax… “Party”‘ puts Labor ahead of the Coalition?

    I think I’ll stop reading there and go back to Lewis Carroll with my girls.

  2. Nemspy

    [Graeme
    Posted Sunday, August 18, 2013 at 5:57 pm | Permalink

    So the ‘No Carbon Tax… “Party”‘ puts Labor ahead of the Coalition?

    I think I’ll stop reading there and go back to Lewis Carroll with my girls.]

    This reminds me of back when I when I was doing my first degree there was a minor scandal when the student union elections were held. The lot that wins every year (and always seem to have lots of funding) were facing stiff competition for once from an International Students party. In order to beat them off they set up a bunch of dummy “conservative” parties to siphon off votes from the internationals.

    I didn’t follow the ins and outs of university politics enough to know exactly how it all worked, but it certainly wasn’t denied. In fact, the winners quite calmly told the uni newspaper that what they had done was perfectly legit.

  3. Geoff Lambert

    The Coalition doesn’t seem to appear in the PUP list. PUP rates Coalition higher than the competitors- GRN and ALP.

    See for yourselves at:

    http://www.aec.gov.au/election/downloads.htm

  4. frednk

    Might be easier to vote below the line.

  5. Steve777

    Each State has six Senators to elect. It is absurd that voters in large states have to number over 100 squares to vote below the the, but it’s either that or accept the deals cut in the proverbial ‘smoke filled rooms’ to deliver votes in bulk. I suggest that voters only be required to number 12 squares. That should be more than enough.

    I have never heard of many of the groups in my state (NSW). Might some of these be fronts to harvest preferences for one or other major party?

  6. edward o

    Lots of preference harvesting chancers in there! And there seems to be a coalescing of non-conservative groups who are nonetheless strongly anti-Greens (party, though perhaps not anti-environment per se). Such will always happen when you’re big enough that you are always in contention for seat number six – everyone’s going to be out to get you. It’s also tempting to look and see who’s going to pull off a theoretical microharvest, but looking at this, the ones that have the best “deals” (at least in NSW) literally can’t be expected to poll more than a few thousand votes, they won’t get near the Fielding-esque figure of 1.9%.

  7. Tom the first and best

    6

    Strongly anti-Greens is an indicator of conservatism. Especially when they are not the ALP.

    The expectation of a very low vote many help them get good preference deals because other parties may think it is safe to preference them.

    How do we know that the will only get a few thousand votes? At that level things can be unpredictable.

  8. edward o

    “The expectation of a very low vote many help them get good preference deals because other parties may think it is safe to preference them.”

    Definitely. Nobody would have dealt with Fielding if they knew he would actually get close to 2%.

    But being anti-Green is not necessarily a sign of a party’s conservatism. It’s more the reality that if you’re a no-hope micro-party (and this lot are), you can’t just poll a little, you have to take votes off other parties so you can actually get in the contest. And the easiest target is that party who is likely to be last to be elected (except in Tas and maybe Vic). Some of these groups have put the Greens under other contenders not out of ideology, but out of self-interest. I don’t excuse it, or endorse it, that’s just how it is.

    It would be nice if we could vote multiple squares above the line like in the NSW LC, but then independents would need a whole column rather than just being ungrouped (though really if you think you’ve got a chance of being elected you should stump up for a group anyway).

  9. Radguy

    http://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2013/wasen2013

    This is an interesting article.

    I think much of the weird preferences are explained by an effort to weaken Liberal senate control.

    Strong westerlys at the moment.

  10. christoll

    There are a few errors here, which isn’t surprising given the mammoth task Poll Bludger is trying to undertake here… A particularly glaring one though is the Greens ticket for QLD: they haven’t preferenced Family First before Labor! The actual Greens ticket for QLD shows Labor, PUP, DLP, Rudd/Dinsey, Family First, KAP, LNP.

    http://www.aec.gov.au/election/downloads.htm

  11. William Bowe

    Thanks Christoll, corrected. I’d be pleased if you could point out any other errors you can see.

  12. dovif

    The most interesting part of the Senate arrangement is in Qld. Where the LNP is likely to get 3 senators off an expected 2PP vote of 56% and Primary > 42%

    If the ALP does not get 28% primary or if the ALP gets significantly over 28%, the preference deal might deliver the last seat to KAP

  13. A Crane

    Xenophon is preferencing Nats in SA. Interesting. Could they be in with a chance?

  14. lenxyz

    William,
    For Western Australia not one of your tickets show preferences to the Australian Christians. Since AC (formerly CDP) outpolls FF that is a significant oversight.

  15. lenxyz

    William I note that you exclude those with effectively no chance, but in 2010 Democrats, FF and Shooters and Fishers all polled less than CDP (now Australian Christians), yet you include those. Admittedly S&F did well in the last state election and have a chance but so do AC who poll relatively well in WA

  16. Wakefield

    Thanks William – good information. I take it the order is as per ballot draw? If so usual donkey benefit to right as there are lots more minor right wing groups

    A Crane – Nationals in SA no chance – probably < 0.5% and will go out early.

    Dovif – you have no idea. Labor preferences only important if they have a smallish surplus not a big one.

    Nick Xenophon whinging about parties putting his running mate Stirling Griff much lower than X – people learnt a big lesson years ago when unknown Ann Bressington got elected to Upper House in SA on X big vote – Bressington got 8 years at a cost of about $4m or whatever to taxpayers and has been one of the lesser contributors to life – including sponsoring Lord Monckton to Australia.

  17. William Bowe

    Fair point, Lenxyz. I’m going to revisit all this now that it’s all been published as CSV files and I can check for errors, and when I get around to doing it I’ll include AC.

  18. dovif

    Wakefield

    What if the ALP gets 34% primary in Qld ie around .5 of a quota, the Greens are on .8 and the KAP are on .7?

    The ALP elects the KAP candidate. At the moment I think that is very likely

  19. Andrew Dolt

    Not even close, William. Totally misleading. For the true picture go to the horse’s mouth (SA link shown, look up your own state): http://aec.gov.au/election/sa/gvt.htm#p

  20. William Bowe

    You’re going to have to be a bit more specific, AD.

  21. William Bowe

    If you’re suggesting there’s something wrong with the entry for the Greens in SA, you’re mistaken. You may have misinterpreted what I’m doing here.

  22. DJR

    Wow! That would have taken some working out.
    And bloody confusing for us average punters.
    I’d love to see a little web applet where you can put a few parties in order of personal preference and see which major party it eventually filters through to according to the above preferences.

  23. democracy@work

    WLP can win in WA against the Greens Ludy with just 2% of the vote.

    In NSW Sex Party.

    In VIC Assange can win against the Greens provided the ALP Surplus plus Green vote is below Quota. (Unlikely) Wan interesting outcome that was missed is that Helen Kroger can lose to Family Fist

    South Australia, disappointingly Sarah Hansen-Young (Goth as we call her) will retain her seat, The full extent of teh zenopone factor being the unknown but it has to come from somewhere mainly the religious right.

    QLD is anyone’s guess. Hard to just teh extent of tehy Fatter and Palmer effect

    Tasey no change

    Again Wikilikes is well paced for preferences in WA and Victoria

    All tested via Antony Greens Senate Calc including my own database and OpenSTV

    more http://www.democracy-A0work.blogspot.com including crucial preference flow charts

  24. democracy@work

    WA Preference flow

    The Greens are attacking Wikileaks for their preference allocation placing the National Party ahead of the Greens.claiming that Wikileaks party owes the Greens a better deal

    The fact is that Wikileaks would have to be excluded from the count before the National Party and the irony of it is the more that the Greens attack Wikileaks the more likely a National Party could out-poll Wikileaks.  (This is unlikely)  the only way we can see the National Party out polling Wikileaks is if the Coalition handed out a separate HTV card urging its supporters in rural WA to vote for the Nationals thus upping their vote.  In 2010 the National polled less than 4%
     
    The Greens think they are somehow a protected species.

    To the Greens dismay Wikileaks is a competitor not a partner and is likely to win over the Greens in WA

    ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used asa base in analysis

    You can play with the outcome using the ABC Senate calculator.  I suggest you start by allocating a percentage to Wikileaks and deducting that from the Greens vote and then adjust all other parties percentage to accommodate the other minor parties that are standing for the first time in WA

    Western Australia

    Candidate
    Party

    1
    David JOHNSTON
    Liberal Party

    2
    Joe BULLOCK
    Australian Labor Party

    3
    Michaelia CASH
    Liberal Party

    4
    Linda REYNOLDS
    Liberal Party

    5
    Louise PRATT
    Australian Labor Party

    6
    Gerry GEORGATOS
    The Wikileaks Party

    ID    Group Name                                                    Preference Flow 

     A
    Smokers Rights
     WKP 
     FFP 
     NP 
     LP 
     ALP 
     GRN

     B
    Liberal
    Democrats
     WKP 
     FFP 
     NP 
     LP 
     ALP 
     GRN

     C
    Australian
    Christians
     FFP 
     LP 
     NP 
     ALP 
     WKP 
     GRN

     D
    Help
    End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party
     WKP 
     GRN 
     ALP 
     FFP 
     NP 
     LP

     E
    Socialist
    Equality Party
     GRN 
     NP 
     ALP 
     LP 
     WKP 
     FFP

     E
    Socialist
    Equality Party
     ALP 
     LP 
     WKP 
     FFP 
     GRN 
     NP

     E
    Socialist
    Equality Party
     LP 
     WKP 
     FFP 
     GRN 
     NP 
     ALP

     F
    Palmer
    United Party
     FFP 
     WKP 
     GRN 
     NP 
     LP 
     ALP

     G
    Shooters
    and Fishers
     FFP 
     LP 
     NP 
     ALP 
     WKP 
     GRN

     H
    Australian
    Voice Party
     FFP 
     WKP 
     NP 
     LP 
     ALP 
     GRN

     I
    Sex
    Party
     WKP 
     GRN 
     ALP 
     NP 
     LP 
     FFP

     J
    Secular
    Party of Australia
     WKP 
     GRN 
     ALP 
     NP 
     LP 
     FFP

     K
    Australian
    Independents
     FFP 
     WKP 
     GRN 
     NP 
     LP 
     ALP

     L
    The
    Wikileaks Party
     WKP 
     NP 
     GRN 
     ALP 
     LP 
     FFP

     M
    Katter’s
    Australian Party
     WKP 
     FFP 
     LP 
     NP 
     GRN 
     ALP

     N
    Family
    First Party
     FFP 
     WKP 
     LP 
     NP 
     ALP 
     GRN

     O
    No
    Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics
     FFP 
     WKP 
     NP 
     LP 
     ALP 
     GRN

     P
    Stable
    Population Party
     WKP 
     FFP 
     GRN 
     ALP 
     LP 
     NP

     P
    Stable
    Population Party
     WKP 
     FFP 
     ALP 
     GRN 
     LP 
     NP

     P
    Stable
    Population Party
     WKP 
     FFP 
     LP 
     GRN 
     ALP 
     NP

     Q
    Stop
    The Greens
     WKP 
     FFP 
     NP 
     LP 
     ALP 
     GRN

     R
    Australian
    Democrats
     WKP 
     GRN 
     ALP 
     LP 
     NP 
     FFP

     R
    Australian
    Democrats
     WKP 
     GRN 
     LP 
     ALP 
     NP 
     FFP

     S
    The
    Greens (WA)
     GRN 
     WKP 
     ALP 
     FFP 
     NP 
     LP

     T
    Animal
    Justice Party
     WKP 
     FFP 
     GRN 
     ALP 
     LP 
     NP

     U
    The
    Nationals
     NP 
     LP 
     WKP 
     FFP 
     ALP 
     GRN

     V
    Australian
    Fishing and Lifestyle Party
     FFP 
     LP 
     NP 
     ALP 
     WKP 
     GRN

     W
    Australian
    Motoring Enthusiast Party
     FFP 
     WKP 
     NP 
     ALP 
     LP 
     GRN

     W
    Australian
    Motoring Enthusiast Party
     FFP 
     WKP 
     NP 
     LP 
     ALP 
     GRN

     X
    Australian
    Sports Party
     WKP 
     FFP 
     NP 
     LP 
     GRN 
     ALP

     Y
    Rise
    Up Australia Party
     FFP 
     LP 
     NP 
     ALP 
     WKP 
     GRN

     Z
    Australian
    Labor Party
     ALP 
     GRN 
     WKP 
     FFP 
     NP 
     LP

    AA
    Liberal
     LP 
     NP 
     FFP 
     ALP 
     WKP 
     GRN

  25. democracy@work

    Sorry your comments section does not support you should allow this…

    WA is Wikileaks best hop which explain mush of the false and misleading comments ‘Spook chat’ put out by the Greens. At no stage is the LNP close to winning four seats in the Senate.

    Remember there are a number of flaws in the way the Senate vote is counted., (The method of calculating the surplus transfer value, the segmented distribution of excluded candidates and the Droop quota) In 2007 the segmented distribution issue denied the Greens a Senate seat. (Some may say that was a good thing)

    The Greens will be beginning to think they should have corrected these flaws now that they will effect their outcomes in TAS, WA, NSW. Victoria and QLD.

    For some reason, unbetold other than to prevent proper scrutiny, the AEC will not be providing scrutineers access to copies of the Below the line preference data files progressively during the count. The Greens may like to rethink this. It is akin to going to the supermarket and buying a months worth of family shopping and not handed a detailed receipt or showing the cost of your purchases as you scan you purchase. In all respect the AEC goes an excellent job at counting the votes. Much better than the States. But access to the preference data file is crucial is you are going to monitor the BTL data entry process. There is no reason or justification to not make this available during the count

    The first group in the ballot is worth at least 0.5-0.6%

    You can assume that each of the ALP and LNP tickets will elect the first two candidates in the LNP’s case three.

    I see little change here. (Except in Victoria Helen Kroger is in a weal position) The ALP/Libs and Greens and no in a good position in terms of above the line voting preferences. Wikileaks has the best and FF is well placed thanks to a consistent religious right cross preferencing. “Marriage equality issue has united them even more.

    BTL votes will not play as much a roll as you might think

    With such a large number of candidates the number voting below the line will be lower as the number made informal is likely to increase. In any event most who vote below the line remain within group. There vote will stop at one of the main five groups and not be distributed.

  26. democracy@work

    Great to see the ABC calculator up and running

    The ABC calculator shows Wikileaks is in a strong position to win in Western Australia with just 2% of the vote. at the expense of the Greens who are polling around 9% (-5).

    The 5% loss to the Greens has to go somewhere.

    The ALP and the LNP are expected to poll more or less the same in 2010.

    Wikileaks picks up most of the preferences from SMK LDP HMP ASXP SPA KAP SPP and DEM early in the count and also secondary preferences from other parties once FFP is excluded

    The likelihood of Wikileaks out polling the Greens and winning the sixth seat explains much of the misconceptions and misleading statements by the Greens who are now attacking Wikileaks.

    On another issue re design of the ABC calculator:

    It should be possible to implement a data population ULR feed, as is the case in the ABC HoR Pendulum calculator?

    This would make it much more useful.

    Thanks again

  27. Thomas Clement

    If anyone’s interested; I have the potential senate breakdowns available at:

    http://www.geeklections.com.au/senate_results_current.html

    Family First has generally good deals, and will probably get up in Victoria, and might get up in QLD. No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics have a very good shot in SA (depending on how well, and where from, Nick Xenophon picks up votes).

  28. geekLections

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    If anyone’s interested; I have the potential senate breakdowns available at:

    http://www.geeklections.com.au/senate_results_current.html

    Family First has generally good deals, and will probably get up in Victoria, and might get up in QLD. No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics have a very good shot in SA (depending on how well, and where from, Nick Xenophon picks up votes).