tip off

Newspoll: 9% swing in Sydney marginals

An 800-sample Newspoll survey supports an impression that Sydney alone stands to put victory beyond Labor’s reach.

Newspoll today brings a poll from a sample of 800 respondents from the five most marginal Labor electorates in Sydney – Greenway (0.9%), Lindsay (1.1%), Banks (1.5%), Reid (2.7%) and Parramatta (4.4%) – which suggests the whole lot will be swept away, and perhaps others besides. Labor’s collective two-party preferred vote across the five seats is put at 43%, which compares with 52.1% at the 2010 election. The primary vote has Labor down from 43.2% to 34%, the Liberals up from 42.8% to 52%, the Greens down from 7.9% to 7% and “others” up from 6.1% to 7%. On two party preferred, Labor is down from 52.1% to 43%. Tony Abbott is also given better personal ratings (47% approval and 46% disapproval) than Kevin Rudd (37% and 55%), and leads 46-40 as preferred prime minister. The margin of error for the poll is about 3.5%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham observes in comments: “These five were all surveyed by Galaxy which averaged 48:52 in the same electorates, via robopolling, with a much larger sample size, last week. It’s not likely voting intention has moved anything like five points in a week. So either someone has a house effect or someone (most likely Newspoll) has an inaccurate sample.”

UPDATE 2 (Galaxy Adelaide poll): The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan poll): Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll.

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  • 1
    lefty e
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:36 am | Permalink

    a poll without seat breakdowns?

  • 2
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:36 am | Permalink

    160 per seat? seems abit large for MOE.

  • 3
    lefty e
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:38 am | Permalink

    The press don’t understand what happened David.
    They did cost it: just not the coalition’s version. Since the coalition didn’t submit any.
    No one has checked if the coalitions version is right or wrong.
    The budget office is just pointing out the two may have different assumptions. It doesn’t blow anything out of the water.
    Except stupid reporters. Lets see the coalitions version and see who’s right! My money’s on PBO

  • 4
    DisplayName
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:39 am | Permalink

    lefty, the problem is that however reasonable – for use in comparison to coalition costings – their numbers may have been, because they went too far, Treasury felt they had to make a statement that has turned the whole thing into a political mess.

    Even if they don’t lose points over it, that line of attack may no longer be as effective as it could be.

  • 5
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:43 am | Permalink

    Rudds about to be done like a Christmas Dinner

  • 6
    davidwh
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:45 am | Permalink

    Lefty I understand what Labor did and it may have been good strategy seeing the Coalition is playing games with their costings however Labor overplayed their hand by saying Treasury costed Coalition policies when in fact they didn’t. I agree with DN that Labor have now devalued that line of attack.

  • 7
    DisplayName
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:46 am | Permalink

    Still, depending on which newspaper you read or TV programs you watch, the effect may vary :P .

  • 8
    paaptsef
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:48 am | Permalink

    Rudds about to be done like a Christmas Dinner

    it wouldn’t matter even if it was true Sean. Oppositions run governments these days all fair and accounted for. Just say no buddy.

  • 9
    davidwh
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:48 am | Permalink

    Zoidlord that Newspoll only has real value in aggregate. If you start trying to gauge individual seats then the MOE becomes a touch problematic.

  • 10
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:49 am | Permalink

    Yup, and is still at 53/47, with MOE of 3.5

  • 11
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:50 am | Permalink

    These five were all surveyed by Galaxy which averaged 48:52 in the same electorates, via robopolling, with a much larger sample size, last week.

    It’s not likely voting intention has moved anything like five points in a week. So either someone has a house effect or someone (most likely Newspoll) has an inaccurate sample.

  • 12
    davidwh
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:50 am | Permalink

    DN no doubt about that :) it really has been interesting watching how the various media organizations report the same situations. The worms being a prime example.

  • 13
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:51 am | Permalink

    @Kevin/11

    Another rouge, like the other newspoll that we had other week?

  • 14
    lefty e
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:52 am | Permalink

    Sure, I agree with that. For my money the public aren’t that exercised about costings in the end: they just see it as noise.

    Best to focus on Abbotts cuts,his great big new tax, dodgy PPL, NBN, the sound economy we have, the risk if cuts causing recession, job security.

  • 15
    davidwh
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:52 am | Permalink

    Kevin I thought you liked bounciness? ;)

  • 16
    DisplayName
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:52 am | Permalink

    I just checked The Australian and their headline is now “torpedoed”.

    Let’s just tell people to read the PB comments ;) .

  • 17
    ItDoesntAddUp Tony
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:54 am | Permalink

    Well one thing appears apparent. If Labor lose this election I don’t think anyone will be blaming Gillard.

  • 18
    lefty e
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:57 am | Permalink

    This poll looks to be of marginal utility: ALP still behind in western sydney, be either a lot, or a bit.

    Next!

  • 19
    paaptsef
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:59 am | Permalink

    Mod Libs famous dog walking polls have a lower MOE than this

  • 20
    lefty e
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 1:00 am | Permalink

    I reckon you’re wrong there , itdoesnt… There’ll be plenty of blame for everyone to share around.

  • 21
    ItDoesntAddUp Tony
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 1:58 am | Permalink

    Oh well, I hope all this effort doesn’t go to waste: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCbO94EKrAfeViUvFjqy7ANw?feature=watch

    Personally, I reckon I could have run a better campaign than Rudd, and I’m not a professional politician. The holes in Abbott’s policies are glaringly obvious. As for Bruce Hawker the less said the better I think.

  • 22
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 3:11 am | Permalink

    To look at a likely reason for some of this: the navy-moving thought-bubble would have been seen as a snub to Sydney jobs (second time Rudd has dished it out to Sydney; there was a similar line going on in the first leader’s debate.) I just don’t think there’s anything like five points in that silliness though.

  • 23
    CTar1
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 3:24 am | Permalink

    Rolf Harris charged with indecent assault of two children

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/rolf-harris-charged-with-indecent-assault-of-two-children-8789384.html

  • 24
    Simon Baker
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 4:07 am | Permalink

    As KB states, this poll is extremely dubious because it covers all the marginals as one block. Indeed, the last Galaxy poll just 7 days ago in these seats had the Liberals ahead 51-49 in Greenway ( a swing of 2%), 54-46 in Lindsay (a swing of 5%), 52-48 in Banks (a swing of 6%), 53-47 in Reid (a swing of 6%) and Parramatta 50-50 ( a swing of 5.5%). So the swing varied in the seats from just 2% to 6% (and none actually reached the 9% Newspoll seems to suggest as the average swing)
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/08/23/galaxy-marginals-polling/

  • 25
    Simon Baker
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 4:11 am | Permalink

    Indeed, Newspoll also seems to suggest the ALP is doing significantly worse in these marginals than the ALP is doing nationally based on its own most recent national poll which covered the same timeframe. Does that mean Newspoll has the ALP doing better than average in some other marginal seats, in which case where are these? The poll was also conducted before the final debate which Rudd seemed to win comfortably, so if he got any bounce that would not have shown up in this poll

  • 26
    Simon Baker
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 4:15 am | Permalink

    KB – This poll was conducted from last Friday to Wednesday, so would not have captured most of the response to Rudd’s naval announcement of the switch from Sydney to Queensland as that was made on Tuesday

  • 27
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 4:21 am | Permalink

    I really can’t see The Garden Island thought bubble having any effect on Western Sydney -it is 40-60 km away and the potential job loses are minimal.

    Reasons Labor is off in the West:

    Many years of being taken for granted
    Obeid
    Boats
    Good campaigning from Libs highlighting the perception of an uncaring, shambolic government while the standard of living is declining

  • 28
    ruawake
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 5:13 am | Permalink

    More Newspoll rubbish. If they are right why are others wrong?

  • 29
    BK
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 5:55 am | Permalink

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    They are all jumping on the “torpedoed” bandwagon. I will repeat what I said yesterday – if no assunptions are shown then the costings have no meaning.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/treasury-deny-any-part-in-calculating-coalitions-10b-savings-hole-20130829-2stgu.html
    This looks like it might be a good move.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/new-rules-to-rein-in-price-gouging-by-electricity-operators-20130829-2stm3.html
    Tim Colebatch has given up on Labor.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/its-the-labor-election-campaign-swallowed-by-the-mother-of-all-black-holes-20130829-2stnu.html
    John Laws can go and bite his sagging arse!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/john-laws-questions-therese-rein-on-not-being-a-rudd-20130829-2st9q.html
    More American style crap from the Libs. This is the sort of stuff that leads to the most ridiculous outcomes in schools such as bigotted religious influence on curriculum and sacking of teachers on quesionable grounds. The US media is full of instances.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/coalition-commits-70-million-to-encourage-public-schools-to-become-more-independent-20130829-2sscb.html
    Andrew Dyson on popular issues.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    Cathy Wilcox on the “abomination backtrack”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    David Rowe with a macabre illustration of the Scales of Syrian Justice.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    MUST SEE. Only David Pope seems to get it today.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg has a good picture on the road to the (AFL) finals.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  • 30
    BK
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 6:16 am | Permalink

    And from the Land of the Free -

    Some cartoons on the potential for Syria.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/29/cartoons-of-the-day-next-syria/
    And some cartoons on the Repugs continually trying to kill Obamacare.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/28/poll-itics-majority-of-americans-disapprove-of-cutting-off-funding-for-obamacare/
    Tea Baggers – such lovely, balanced people!
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/scarce/maine-teabagger-gets-visit-secret-service-a
    Anderson Cooper destroys Idiot Pat Robertson.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/29/anderson-cooper-pat-roberson-insane-aids-theory_n_3835733.html

  • 31
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 6:38 am | Permalink

    Thank You, Bruce Hawker!

  • 32
    lizzie
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 6:59 am | Permalink

    Someday, someone will explain to us how Labor could run a campaign as badly thought-out as this one. Right now, it seems just inexplicable.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/its-the-labor-election-campaign-swallowed-by-the-mother-of-all-black-holes-20130829-2stnu.html#ixzz2dOUGU6Fm

  • 33
    castle
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:05 am | Permalink

    They are all jumping on the “torpedoed” bandwagon.

    More examination and dodgy rebuttals of labors claims than the actual libs costings

  • 34
    lizzie
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:10 am | Permalink

    Saw Mel Clarke and Latika on 24 this morn. Comparing organisation of trail.

    Said that Abbott’s campaign spots have been tightly controlled and always stay on schedule (although journos never know in advance). Labor, however, seems less organised in that sudden decisions are made to change plans.

    We know that Abbott is always tightly controlled so that he doesn’t have surprises sprung on him and he has his little speeches rehearsed well.

    Who’s controlling Rudd?

  • 35
    shellbell
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:11 am | Permalink

    Ian McDonald on the verge of corruption immortality as he goes for a three peat when ICAC hands down its decision today

  • 36
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:12 am | Permalink

    Australia finally beat England on tour in the T20 …

    Australia’s Aaron Finch manages 156 from 63 balls with 14*6 and 11*4 in a team score of 248.

    Obviously, he was playing to be not out at the end. ;-)

  • 37
    BK
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:12 am | Permalink

    Barry Jones is far from impressed with recent political discourse.
    http://theconversation.com/barry-jones-the-2013-election-and-the-death-of-rationality-17637?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+30+August+2013&utm_content=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+30+August+2013+CID_e05d6fe476aa935db17ebdb5e1f24b57&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=Barry%20Jones%20the%202013%20election%20and%20the%20death%20of%20rationality

  • 38
    castle
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:12 am | Permalink

    Someday, someone will explain to us how Labor could run a campaign as badly thought-out as this one. Right now, it seems just inexplicable.

    That it is a bad campaign is indisputable, but with a large chunk of the media barracking for the libs, not questioning their policies and costings and highlighting every labor misstep it makes it worse.

  • 39
    Mod Lib
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:14 am | Permalink

    paaptsef
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 12:59 am | PERMALINK
    Mod Libs famous dog walking polls have a lower MOE than this

    The dog walking polls haven’t changed, the ALP is still stuffed.

    This Newspoll might be “wrong” in that there might not be a swing of EXACTLY 9% at the election, however, if there is a massive swing against the ALP in ALP marginal seats in Sydney, whatever the final number, then I consider them “right”.

    That is what polls are for really. To estimate the exact swing you need to aggregate the polling results and add a little political nous….

  • 40
    Mod Lib
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:14 am | Permalink

    Can I suggest it might be time for a “Real Kevin” line?

  • 41
    lizzie
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:14 am | Permalink

    A series of changes in how electricity companies fix their spending plans are to be unveiled on Friday, aimed at tackling once and for all the ''gold plating'' of the electricity network - the reason for much of the surge in power prices over the past five years.

    I can’t wait for this. Our current quarterly bill is $300 higher than for the same usage a year ago.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/new-rules-to-rein-in-price-gouging-by-electricity-operators-20130829-2stm3.html#ixzz2dOY5EcC1

  • 42
    meher baba
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:15 am | Permalink

    Re Costingsgate

    In the 1990s, Costello tried to bring some integrity into the election costings process. Then the PBO was a further step in the right direction. Unfortunately, the Libs have undermined the whole setup with their appalling behaviour during the last election and, to a lesser extent, this one.

    One principle which has been upheld for a couple of decades now (I can’t recall if it came into effect before or after 1996) is that, during an election campaign, Treasury/Finance won’t cost anyone’s proposals unless asked to do so by the proponent.

    The press release by Parkinson/Tune was intended to make it clear to thr Libs that they hadn’t breached this rule. But you can smell the apprehension in its words. The Libs under Abbott have taken the unprecedented step of casting slurs on the integrity of the economic departments. Thry have also promised to spash and burn the bureaucracy, move some agencies into thme boondocks, transfer functions to the States, create local amateur NGO bureaucracies ro twke on roles performed by departmentsl professionals, etc. Not since 1972 has a likely incoming government presented such a negative attitude towards the bureaucracy.

    It will surely have to settle down soon. Hockey was sounding conciliatory last night. Sinodinos as Finance Minister would be a big help.

  • 43
    frednk
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:19 am | Permalink

    Dumping Gillard seems to have worked really well!

  • 44
    lizzie
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:24 am | Permalink

    Barry Jones:

    We should have a minute’s silence to reflect on the contribution of Julie Bishop, Warren Truss and Clive Palmer to the campaign.

    I like this humour.

  • 45
    David
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:30 am | Permalink

    I wish people would stop complaining about the campaign because the media suggests it’s bad. This campaign is 10 times better then the 2010 campaign with Gillards “were moving forward” and its “sustainable Australia” slogans. Rudd took over with Labor’s primary vote on 29%. There was alot anger in the community- this was not going to be wiped away with Rudd regaining the Prime Minstership for 2 months. As for the suggestion by media that Gillard could of done better. We were going to lose 40 seats under Gillard- it’s a hogwash the story that has been peddled out by bitter Gillard backers who can’t hack that the decision to dump Rudd was stupid in the first place.

  • 46
    frednk
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:31 am | Permalink

    What an extortionately misinformed heading. And they wonder why no-one is willing to pay for their shit.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/rudds-10b-hole-claim-blown-apart-20130829-2stns.html

  • 47
    castle
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:32 am | Permalink

    Saw Mel Clarke and Latika on 24 this morn. Comparing organisation of trail.

    Said that Abbott’s campaign spots have been tightly controlled and always stay on schedule (although journos never know in advance). Labor, however, seems less organised in that sudden decisions are made to change plans.

    We know that Abbott is always tightly controlled so that he doesn’t have surprises sprung on him and he has his little speeches rehearsed well.

    Who’s controlling Rudd?

    abbott being tightly controlled is part of the way the media presents him.

    if abbott was the labor leader and rudd the liberal leader the focus would be entirely changed.

    the Riley nodding video would be regularly shown with analysis by various drs on morning shows, questions over his freezing and suitability.

    the lack of policies, costings and various mistakes, blunders and double counting would be scrutinised and analysed by various so called financial experts on a daily basis.

    The $10 billion hole using treasury and finance methods would be trumpeted as proof of the risk and incompetence of abbott.

    abbotts claiming of travel allowances on his so called charity jaunts would be highlighted as rorting the purse.

    his truck driving stunt would be slammed as an insult to hard working truckies, his pretense to be able to drive a b-double would show his unfitness for office.

    he would face daily questioning on the contradictions on work choices, taxes, health and infrastructure.

    the competence of his ministers, bishop hockey joyce would be held to scrutiny.

    opinion polling showing turnball more popular, his negative ppm and apporval rating would be the main news, his one vote victory over turnball would be impetus for questioning how secure his position was.

    TDT and CA would regularly interview women who have experienced his charming ways.

    you get the picture,

  • 48
    pithicus
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:33 am | Permalink

    Why do I get the feeling that a lot of the marginal seat polls this election seem contrived?

  • 49
    frednk
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:34 am | Permalink

    David
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:30 am | Permalink

    Dream on mate, the two party preferred are about equal now with Rudd’s going down.

    Changing leaders loses you a block of votes; having a corrupt NSW right loses you the election, will labor never learn?

  • 50
    Rosemour or Less
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:37 am | Permalink

    ‘Someday, someone will explain to us how Labor could run a campaign as badly thought-out as this one. Right now, it seems just inexplicable.’

    There’ll a dozen long years in opposition to ponder that one Lizzie.

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