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Federal Election 2013

Aug 31, 2013

Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition (plus marginals polling)

Galaxy has an on-trend national poll result plus more of its electorate-level automated polls, including the first such polling for the campaign from Western Australia.

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GhostWhoVotes relates that Galaxy has a national poll showing the Coalition leading 53-47, from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. We also have these latest additions to Galaxy’s series of 550-sample electorate-level automated phone polls:

• Three Perth seats have been targeted for the first electorate-level polls to emerge from Western Australia during the campaign. One of these, for the electorate of Perth, holds another distinction in being the first published opinion poll of any kind during the campaign to show a clear swing to Labor. It has Labor candidate Alannah MacTiernan leading Liberal candidate Darryl Moore by 58-42, compared with Stephen Smith’s 2010 margin of 5.9%. MacTiernan outperformed the state average by about 5% as the unsuccessful candidate for Canning in 2010.

• Less happily for Labor, the second poll shows Liberal member Ken Wyatt with a clear 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Adrian Evans in the state’s most marginal seat of Hasluck, which Wyatt holds for the Liberals on a margin of 0.6%.

• GhostWhoVotes also relates that a Brand poll has both parties on 42% of the primary vote, with no two-party preferred result provided. However, it would presumably give Labor member Gary Gray the lead over his Liberal challenger Donna Gordin. Gray polled 40.8% of the primary vote in 2010 to Gordin’s 39.4% (UPDATE: The two-party preferred turns out to be 52-48 to Labor).

• The other two polls are from Queensland, one being for the Townsville seat of Herbert, where Liberal National Party member Ewen Jones is given a 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Cathy O’Toole, compared with a 2010 margin of 2.2%.

• The second Queensland poll is from Herbert’s southern neighbour Dawson, and it shows LNP member George Christensen well clear of Labor candidate Bronwyn Taha with a lead of 57-43, compared with 2.4% in 2010.

UPDATE: Galaxy, which I have little doubt is doing the most credible work in the electorate-level automated phone poll game, now has polls for two further Queensland seats: one showing Kevin Rudd leading Bill Glasson 54-46 in Griffith, the other showing and Labor’s Shayne Neumann tied 50-50 with the Liberal National Party’s Teresa Harding.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1830 comments

1,830 thoughts on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition (plus marginals polling)

  1. Sean Tisme

    ROGUE

  2. Steve777

    This morning I bought a Fathers’ Day card at the local newsagent and was told I get a free copy of the Sunday Telegraph with it. I declined. Not only is News Corporation turning their newspapers into propaganda sheets, their further helping their side by handing out their crap for free. It must be costing News Corporation a fortune. They’ll be around to collect once their guy is safely in the Lodge.

  3. zoidlord

    Not seeing it on GWV twitter.

  4. J341983

    Wait… there’s nothing on TGWV’s twitter…

  5. Andrew

    OMG Rudd + 14 on net approval and Abbott – 7

  6. docantk

    Not sure if it’s real: note the twitter handle is “GhostWhovoteD” with a “D” not the usual “GhostWhoVotes”

    Could be a fake

  7. gloryconsequence

    If that’s the Newspoll, then Chris Kenny lied

  8. davidwh

    Sadly I don’t think that’s the real Ghost account. Sorry to mislead.

  9. William Bowe

    GhostWhoVotes hasn’t tweeted anything. Docantk has either been duped, or is trying to be funny.

  10. wal kolla

    Wait those times are wrong lol

  11. docantk

    Kevin reckons it’s a fake

  12. lefty e

    Yeah thanks docantk, ya d*ckhead.

    Still waiting for real numbers.

  13. pithicus

    serious narrowing. Looks like rudd and abbott saying polls were close were correct.

  14. confessions

    No, it’s not right.

  15. J341983

    Yeah – it’s not legit

  16. Andrew

    Oh no, it’s a fake isnt it?

  17. bluepill

    Sean

    Don’t waste your electricity on them. They support lying like people I have never seen before..

    Don’t expect them to deal in logic as well.

    We have ALP cultists that are obviously too lazy to do proper work like letterbox dropping manning signs at intersections and licking propaganda from Dishonesty Central.

    These ones just do moral backflips to support their blessed party and whine about it.

    I just wish we had another Centre Left party.. This one won’t even make a useful opposition. You can hardly keep a government to account if no one believes a word that comes out of your mouth.

    Kevin Rudd has disgraced and embarrassed himself and whomever is the dickhead responsible for the woe campaign coordination should refund every wasted cent spent employing them…

    Bastards, all of you.

  18. BK

    Hold on to your hats!

  19. gloryconsequence

    Funny stuff

  20. wal kolla

    Rouge!

  21. davidwh

    There is a fake Ghost account William.

  22. pithicus

    No, it’s not right.

    ah crap

  23. BK

    Dammit! Fakers.

  24. zoidlord

    @bluepill/1647

    Yeah our electricity bills went up under liberal states govs.

  25. J341983

    That was way way too good to be true…

  26. GhostWhoVotes

    GhostWhoVote*D* is a fake twitter account.

  27. bluepill

    William.. I guess no newspoll due tonight?

  28. briefly

    [1601
    confessions

    briefly:

    Maybe it just feels like a dry winter.]

    I think the warmth makes a difference. I was quite surprised by the rainfall. It has been drier than usual inland, but close to average along the South Coast for the last three months. The BOM is hours of fun 🙂

  29. Mod Lib

    Quite possible for the ALP to gain that on the TPP, but I would be surprised if Rudd’s personal numbers improved that much!

  30. gloryconsequence

    There is a Newspoll, and it isn’t good

  31. davidwh

    Sorry for not checking better before posting but it was on the Newspoll twitter hash.

  32. J341983

    There will be – but obviously not nice for ALP supporters.

  33. Sean Tisme

    [GhostWhoVote*D* is a fake twitter account.]

    Has anyone seen Meguire Bob lately? 🙂

  34. shellbell

    Newspoll is never before 10pm except that time Fairfax reported it early

  35. Kevin Bonham

    Yes it’s a fake, but a clever one. The Voted is off the side of the screen so it’s not immediately obvious it’s not the real Ghost if you follow #Newspoll rather than @GhostWhoVotes. It contradicts the indicative results already released by Sky.

  36. Andrew

    you know youre screwed when a fake poll is the only one that brings good news

  37. feeney

    bemused

    Sky News is a disgrace. Their panel discussions are mainly dominated by right-wing rednecks. There is no suggestion of even an attempt to be fair.

    I only have it as I love sport and international affairs, and you get a great coverage there.

  38. zoidlord

    Why did Sky not reveal the results, they usually do.

  39. Johnny Button

    Paul Murray ‏@PMOnAir 27m

    Breaking @chriskkenny reports #Newspoll will show Abbott is now preferred PM, Rudd dissatisfaction is up & ALP’s 2PP has fallen.
    Apparenty this is Wow and interesting

  40. J341983

    As usual – Sky is acting a cat with an injured bird, they know it’s good for them.

  41. confessions

    briefly:

    Have you tried Met Eye? Pretty cool.

  42. frednk

    Good Labor launch. It would seem the US deputy sheriff is into baddies vs baddies. Wonder if Obama will be keen to deputise the moron?

  43. lefty e

    Thats not “interesting”, Sky.

  44. AussieAchmed

    TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏@Thefinnigans 6m
    And this from PB

    #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 38 (-4) Disapprove 52 (+3)

    #Newspoll Rudd: Approve 42 (+5) Disapprove 43 (-9)

  45. Carey Moore

    [Christ you are a sour bunch.]

    Actually, quite the opposite. I love life, I am grateful for everything I have and try to make the best of things.

    You, on the other hand, are a bitter, envious loser. You spend all day, every day on here whinging about scary boat people, your hard dodged taxes going to making the country better and those bitchy feminazi women always throwing their weight around.

    My guess from your posting behaviour is you do not get out much. Yes, you make trips to the grocery store and Centrelink appointments but that’s it. You probably don’t have any friends and absolutely no love life (no that checkout girl who smiles at you when you go shopping isn’t into you.)

    This bitterness could be solved if you got out and enjoyed the world for what it is, instead of being resentful about everything. You might even start being a pleasant person to be around.

    [The prediction of course is mine, all mine.]

    It must be wrong then. Stick to script.

    [Aussies aren’t going to put up with Labors shit for another 3 years]

    Probably. But it’s all swings and roundabouts. Your lot will be in charge – which means you’ll have to actually identify solutions, rather than just highlight problems. Good luck with it. No amount of copy and paste and bumper stickers can substitute quality governing.

  46. imacca

    [Newspoll will show Abbott is now preferred PM, Rudd dissatisfaction is up & ALP’s 2PP has fallen.]

    Sadness that the country is having a collective attack of the stupids. :monkey: preferred PM??

  47. crikey whitey

    William and Kevin Bonham

    Now this may seem an idiotic question.

    But is it? So tricky is this stuff.

    Nick X is allocating his preferences to the Nats then the Liberals then DLP. Then.. Unless I have got this totally wrong.

    His associate, Stirling Griff, is allocating his preferences to Labor. Then assorted no ones.

    Does it make a difference to preference flows if one were to nominate Griff as 1 and Nick as 2? Is this some weird confidence trick?

    If that makes any sense at all. Seeing as the whole bizarre thing is incredibly difficult to fathom.

  48. J341983

    My guesses
    TPP – 54-46
    PPM – Abbott by 5

  49. gloryconsequence

    Everyone in voterland knows Abbott is the next PM. The undecideds will break for him mostly. What we are seeing now in the approvals and PPM is an acceptance from average Joe that Abbott is going to be PM. He’s getting the little boost that all new PMs get. Just early

  50. deblonay

    Imperial Madness
    ______________
    A US writer in Counterpunch wonders if the “chemical warfare” story may not be similar to the “weapons of mass destruction” story we heard in 2003 and many were taken in by… the stories of Blair and Bush…remember 2003 ?

    The US wants to remove Assad who is an ally of Iran.the real target ..just it wants to remove the regime in Tehran which controls vast reserves of oil and gas…all vital to the US economy

    Is this new war cry against Syria just as falacious as the “MMD” scare of Bush/Blair in 2003 ??
    ….what is undoubted is the willingness of the Imperial US war machine to devestate Damascus and other Syrian cities as they have devestated Iraq and Libya

    A great article fropm Counterpunch illustrates the similarities between 2003 and 2013

  51. Kevin Bonham

    crikey whitey@1677

    William and Kevin Bonham

    Now this may seem an idiotic question.

    But is it? So tricky is this stuff.

    Nick X is allocating his preferences to the Nats then the Liberals then DLP. Then.. Unless I have got this totally wrong.

    His associate, Stirling Griff, is allocating his preferences to Labor. Then assorted no ones.

    Does it make a difference to preference flows if one were to nominate Griff as 1 and Nick as 2? Is this some weird confidence trick?

    If that makes any sense at all. Seeing as the whole bizarre thing is incredibly difficult to fathom.

    Nick’s associate is not allocating preferences anywhere. Rather Nick’s ticket has lodged two preference tickets so that half his votes go one way and half go the other. Half go Nats then Libs and half go to ALP. A vote for Nick X above the line is a vote for your preference to effectively split between the majors.

    If you vote below the line you can vote for either of them 1 and direct your preferences however you like.

    If it was me and I was a Nick X supporter I’d be sneaky and vote 1 below the line for Griff so that if Nick got a surplus on the first ballot my vote would continue on at full value. 🙂

  52. William Bowe

    CW, I gather you’re a bit confused about Nick Xenophon having two preference tickets. This does not mean one for him and one for his running mate – it means that above-the-line votes for the Nick Xenophon Group will go two ways when preferences are distributed, with half the vote following the first ticket and the other half following the second.

    Both will go firstly to the Nationals, but that’s unlikely to matter because they’ll get knocked out early in the count. So half will go Liberal and half will go Labor. If the sixth seat is a contest between a major party and a minor, his preferences will go to the major party. But if it’s between any kind of right-wing party and any kind of left-wing party, they will equally divide either way.

  53. AussieAchmed

    Goodies and Baddies – This from Liberals that lied to you about WMD and Iraq

  54. BK

    Watch QandA tomorrow night to get an appreciation of Abbott’s courage and policy depth.

  55. Fran Barlow

    [Sadness that the country is having a collective attack of the stupids. ]

    To be fair, Australia has always had more than its fair share of those who in some combination are intellectually marginalised, indolent, venal, ignorant, irrationally fearful, xenophobic or anomic — which for the sake of brevity one may call “stupid”.

    Tony Abbott’s insight was that he could, with the help of the Murdochracy, exploit his authentic stupidity to reach out to a disproportionate share of this critical demographic. The ALP saw the danger too late,and failed to try reducing the size of the demographic in 2007 — instead, trading on it with a leader who simply didn’t look stupid enough.

    That was a classic blunder.

  56. Dee

    Carey

    Good onya!

    Look, will I be disappointed if Rabbott wins the election?

    Bloody oath, but gee, it’s politics!

    It’s turns and roundabouts.

    No government stays forever but the biggest disappointment will be the feeling that ‘Murdoch’ won the election.

  57. Compact Crank

    Here we go – abuse the electorate – always works.

  58. William Bowe

    I think I need to rephrase this:

    [ If the sixth seat is a contest between a major party and a minor, his preferences will go to the major party. But if it’s between any kind of right-wing party and any kind of left-wing party, they will equally divide either way.]

    Read this as:

    [if it’s between any kind of right-wing party and any kind of left-wing party, they will equally divide either way, unless it’s One Nation, who he has put last. If it’s between Labor and the Greens, they will all go to Labor. If it’s between Liberal and, say, Family First, they will divide equally.]

  59. zoidlord

    @CC/1688

    No, that’s what Abbott is doing by cutting payments, and punishing low income workers.

  60. deblonay

    US propaganda… is 2013 just like 2003 ????
    Is Assad getting the same treatment as that used against Saddam prior to the Iraq War ?
    see article from Counterpunch

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/08/30/the-banality-of-empire/

  61. wal kolla

    Iran is an evil country who sponsors terrorism worldwide- look at the links between them and north korea.
    Attacking syria is senseless.
    The US no longer needs iran’s oil
    And u are an anti-semetic bigot.

    Been enjoying the chocolate at Max Brenner’s

  62. AussieAchmed

    Why would we need Abbott when things are so good now?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BTCc3TvCcAAo6Wn.jpg

  63. Kevin Bonham

    William Bowe@1683


    Both will go firstly to the Nationals, but that’s unlikely to matter because they’ll get knocked out early in the count.

    http://www.aec.gov.au/election/sa/gvt.htm#g says Ticket 2 is Labor 3-4-5. Only Ticket 1 goes first to Nationals. http://www.aec.gov.au/election/sa/files/sa-gvt.pdf same.

  64. Compact Crank

    zoidy @1690 – I suppose you think there is a $70 billion black hole in the costings too. I’m over your unfounded crap.

  65. briefly

    [1671
    confessions

    briefly:

    Have you tried Met Eye? Pretty cool.]

    No, but I will !!

  66. zoidlord

    @CC/1695

    IF there wasn’t they would have revealed their costings already.

  67. Diogenes

    Only three days, two hours and 45 minutes until blissful election silence.

  68. bluepill

    FFS it’s “rogue” not “rouge” you morons..

    The only thing red around here should be your faces..

  69. William Bowe

    Okay, I was mis-remembering that about the Nationals. So just ignore the Nationals then (in SA at least).

  70. Mick77

    Andrew
    [you know youre screwed when a fake poll is the only one that brings good news]
    Wise crack of the day!

  71. Diogenes

    bluepill

    [FFS it’s “rogue” not “rouge” you morons..

    The only thing red around here should be your faces..]

    It is officially “rouge” on PB.

  72. davidwh

    Well PB is a red blog.

  73. wal kolla

    When will start talking about seat projectipns instead of stupid stuff like press releases and policy lunches?

  74. AussieAchmed

    Compact Crank

    Posted Sunday, September 1, 2013 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    zoidy @1690 – I suppose you think there is a $70 billion black hole in the costings too. I’m over your unfounded crap.
    ———————————————-

    Unfounded???

    Cut co-contribution to 3.7 million low paid workers, mainly women. (that fits with Abbotts attitude)

    Stop the School Kids payment (well Gina and the like don’t need it and its better to give them a tax cut)

    Increase tax for small business.

  75. Carey Moore

    [FFS it’s “rogue” not “rouge” you morons..

    The only thing red around here should be your faces..]

    Dude, calm down. It’s meant as an ironic joke.

  76. briefly

    [1671
    confessions
    briefly:

    Have you tried Met Eye? Pretty cool.]

    There’s something incredibly satisfying about data. Data seem to offer security, like a seawall or great tree, in contrast to the political theatre we see being rehearsed over and over in other contexts.

  77. Johnny Button

    RT @SpudBenBean: NEWSPOLL: Baddies 49.5 (-0.5) Baddies 50.5 (+0.5)

  78. Player One

    Johnny Button@1708

    RT @SpudBenBean: NEWSPOLL: Baddies 49.5 (-0.5) Baddies 50.5 (+0.5)

    LOL!

  79. peterk

    Why all the mirth at “Bad vs Bad”?
    1/ It cuts through into voterland and the message is “lets not rush in.” That’s a sensible sentiment.
    2/ It’s a lot more mature than the usual “good vs bad” that we usually hear. And seems to also be more cautious than Mr Rudd’s approach. A very refreshing change. Let’s hope he keeps it up!

  80. Edward StJohn

    Something to cheer you Laboristii up!

    There will be a morning after!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KClpLzFftU

  81. bluepill

    Carey/Dio

    Ok.. I’m off the ledge but I’m a scientist and these things are important to me.. not really upset…. Breathe…. Breathe…

    Seriously.. is there a Newspoll? If not I might have the night off from nematode observations..

  82. crikey whitey

    Thanks, Kevin and William.

    To the extent that the Xenophon group is not allocating according to my preferences, I will vote below the line.

    I have taken into account what you have both said, not to mention person such as truth seeker.

    I intend after consideration to vote Labor first and whatever, according to earlier advice and put Nick somewhere further down the line.

    He will still get in, which I do not mind at all, as previously said, but I would detest the thought some other god knows would make it on the least of percentage whatsoever.

    So thank you, I need to convince the Nick X supporters of why they may be doing themselves a disservice, whilst not alienating them. In the sense that they may think I am ‘against Nick.’ Has it come to this? How wicked and contrary then is the process.

    They are generally Labor. I can hope.

  83. Player One

    peterk@1710

    Why all the mirth at “Bad vs Bad”?
    1/ It cuts through into voterland and the message is “lets not rush in.” That’s a sensible sentiment.
    2/ It’s a lot more mature than the usual “good vs bad” that we usually hear. And seems to also be more cautious than Mr Rudd’s approach. A very refreshing change. Let’s hope he keeps it up!

    The problem with Abbott’s “sophistication” is that to the uninitiated it looks suspiciously like “uninformed idiocy”

  84. briefly

    met eye…cool

  85. davidwh

    Bluepill the 90 minutes between the hint and the substance is a time for fun and conjecture

  86. AussieAchmed

    As I mentioned to someone yesterday who was arguing that retirees would only be paying around 1% tax on their franked credits to fund PPL

    How about instead of hitting the retirees we increase the top tax margin by 1%?.

    **chirp chirp**

  87. Carey Moore

    Comparisons between Iraq and Syria are not really that accurate. Although Iraq should be a lesson about unilateral wars and imposing liberation, it’s still a different kettle of fish. It’s more that the regional and global consequences could be dire that everyone needs to tread carefully on this.

    However, we can’t sit there and do nothing. Action should’ve been discussed a year ago, not now. But, better late than never. (And whether it’s chemical weapons or conventional arms, what is happening there is horrific.)

  88. Mod Lib

    [Johnny Button
    Posted Sunday, September 1, 2013 at 9:52 pm | PERMALINK
    RT @SpudBenBean: NEWSPOLL: Baddies 49.5 (-0.5) Baddies 50.5 (+0.5)]

    Very good!

  89. wal kolla

    I think labor will hold its seats in wa and sa now.
    I think both nt seats will go to lnp. (-1)
    I think act will hold.
    I think between 3 and 6 seats will go in vic, but melbourne back to alp. Net (-2 – -5)
    I think qld will lose 4 seats.
    I think tas will lose 3 seats to lnp.
    I think nsw will be ugly. Up to 10 seats.
    90-95 seats to lnp.

  90. Carey Moore

    The baddies vs. baddies line is not at all incorrect. It actually quite accurate. And, crude as it may be, Abbott is talking to voters, not a group of International Relations professors.

    Labor are well advised to not go down the road of intellectual condescension.

  91. lefty e

    [RT @SpudBenBean: NEWSPOLL: Baddies 49.5 (-0.5) Baddies 50.5 (+0.5)]

    HAH

  92. crikey whitey

    Is there not something incredibly juvenile about ‘adults’ and ‘grown ups’ and ‘baddies’?

  93. J341983

    Frankly – the only thing that can work now on true undecideds and soft voters (and that is a decreasing number, despite what Newspoll might say) is positivity. Relentless negativity looks like desperation and will push people away.

  94. confessions

    [There’s something incredibly satisfying about data. Data seem to offer security, like a seawall or great tree, in contrast to the political theatre we see being rehearsed over and over in other contexts.]

    😆

    I just like weather. Check out this aerial of Prevelly Beach this morning.
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=574705662570650&set=a.561730183868198.1073741923.269003509807535&type=1&theater

  95. confessions

    [Labor are well advised to not go down the road of intellectual condescension.]

    Too late. I heard Wong remarking on it earlier.

  96. Carey Moore

    [Too late. I heard Wong remarking on it earlier.]

    *facepalm*

  97. wal kolla

    @Carey re: Syria.
    Its a case of up to million syrian lives vs the rest of humanity. I believe the US is stupid enough to start a war between its self and Russia. I’d rather syrian government control than plunging into a new cold war. Its cruel, but its the only way.

  98. Carey Moore

    And to the counterpoint that using a term like “baddies” trivialises a grave problem. It really doesn’t. What it does is make it more accessible and understandable to people who aren’t intellectuals or experts.

  99. bluepill

    I have no sympathy for the creeps on this forum who have given coalition supporters stick since before 2007.

    Next Sunday Morning I hope you all wake up depressed, disillusioned with your stupid party and either walk away from it or get off your arses to change it.

    I still belong to no party. I very nearly joined the ALP in 2006 when others encouraged me to turn my love for psephology into something useful.

    Then I joined PB. I saw the stark tribalism and the polarity that meant if I criticised Labor then I ‘must’ be a coalition hack. I wasn’t then, I am not now and I don’t give a FQ who in this room believes it because I know after 7 years that your belief system and values are completely out of whack.

    I have studied many of you, written about you academically and, like a true ethnographer, tried to get inside your heads and work out your worldview. It was intriguing how you could so completely support complete backflips on policies again, and again and again. How you could justify the completely inappropriate way that the ALP has run this nation and lowered the bar of expectations of political behaviour, smacking financial ruin on the nation is beyond me.

    I am supposed to be impartial about you as subjects but over time I have become mad at your behaviour. I still don’t consider the coalition to have its best leaders of the last 20 years on deck but you have turned me against Labor.

    I would never even vote for you as I once did, let alone pay a single dollar to join your party or spend a minute going to a meeting.

    I sincerely hope and pray that next Sunday you walk outside, decide what you are going to do about this toxic party and make the decision to spend more time with your family.

    How much time has the ALP, politics, the hatred of Abbott/Gillard/Rudd consumed your life and robbed you of your family.

    May you walk away and decide not to hate, not to be consumed and not to trade your character for a party who doesn’t care about you.

    You need to break the habit. Seriously.

  100. This little black duck

    Data is wonderful. Couple of things to remember:

    GIGO.

    The devil also reads the bible.

  101. Dee

    [Frankly – the only thing that can work now on true undecideds and soft voters (and that is a decreasing number, despite what Newspoll might say) is positivity. Relentless negativity looks like desperation and will push people away.]

    And if I had to pinpoint one big no, no of the Labor campaign it would have been the negativity.

    Rudd was in with a big chance when he presented something positive in contrast to Rabbott’s relentless negativity.

    If Rudd had stayed really upbeat and positive it would have left nowhere for Rabbott to go.

  102. wal kolla

    Again, if china seizes control of taiwan and slaughters thousands, what can the US do?
    Starting a war with china would be as dire.

  103. Simon Baker

    wal kola Obama seems unlikely to do much but lob a few missiles at worst, he has dithered on this from day one and now handed the decision to Congress, and the House of Representatives could even vote it down as the UK House of Commons has done (Speaker Boehner is sceptical to say the least) although the Senate will probably approve

  104. zoidlord

    @bluepill/1730

    Someone needs a break to write along reply about others different view points 😛

    It’s not us 😛

  105. Diogenes

    The problem with the baddies vs baddies line, which is quite true, is that it commits you to a position which makes it hard to adopt a more flexible approach to the problem (ie backflip) later on.

  106. davidwh

    Gawd I’ve been psychoanalysed

  107. Centre

    What an exciting round of Rugby League.

    Did you guys check the standard of the Manly v Storm match last Sat night?

    Holy Carumba 😀

    Oh where is FARQ these days, hello are you there FARQ?

    Of course, since FARQ said that Centre constantly backs losing NRL teams, Centre has come out and tipped/backed 6 out of the last 7 😎

    Yeah, FAR…Q 😛

  108. Mod Lib

    I remember when the Iraq war was waging some said Nostradamus predicted a great tyrant from the Middle East starting a world war……I hope it wasn’t actually Bashir Assad rather than Saddam.

  109. Socrates

    Five minutes of psephological sunshine? Then the cloud returns.

  110. Carey Moore

    [Its a case of up to million syrian lives vs the rest of humanity. I believe the US is stupid enough to start a war between its self and Russia. I’d rather syrian government control than plunging into a new cold war. Its cruel, but its the only way.]

    As I said, it’s a really difficult situation. While Russia have been deadly serious about this all, I doubt the US going in would lead to war. Cooler heads would probably* prevail. But it would create a new global rift that could shatter the liberal interdependence that’s kept the global community together since the end of the Cold War.

  111. briefly

    [1699
    bluepill

    FFS it’s “rogue” not “rouge” you morons..

    The only thing red around here should be your faces..]

    Of course it’s rouge, a term that relates to the main entertainments here, which include pole dancing, putting lipstick on pigs, running mascara (laughing till you cry) and finding the beauty spot.

  112. Simon Baker

    bluepill If Abbott wins and then dips in the polls, the tensions in the leadership will just switch to the Liberals, after all, Turnbull was ousted by Abbott despite being more popular in the country, it is not completely impossible Abbott too could be ousted again if he the polls nosedive for the Coalition

  113. crikey whitey

    Gosh, bluepill.

    I am stunned at your controlled study.

    Await the result of your thesis.

  114. Simon Baker

    The tensions will switch in a week from Gillard-Rudd to Abbott-Turnbull

  115. Scarpat

    The problem with the baddies vs baddies line, which is quite true, is that it commits you to a position which makes it hard to adopt a more flexible approach to the problem (ie backflip) later on.

    It commits one to not having to do anything…

  116. J341983

    My God…

    Politics is inherently personal. Now I do get deeply troubled by political tribalism, I don’t know how many times I’ve asked die-hards on both sides what makes them support the party they do… it’s alarming how many can’t actually give me an answer that doesn’t extend beyond Uni politics arguments of ‘socialist’ or ‘bigoted fascists’.

    But if you think the problem you’ve outlined isn’t a problem with all political animals all around, then your observations are wrong.

  117. Simon Baker

    ModLib – Assad is even more of a nerd than Rudd

  118. Carey Moore

    [Again, if china seizes control of taiwan and slaughters thousands, what can the US do?
    Starting a war with china would be as dire.]

    China won’t. China can’t afford a war with the west and it has no interest in pursuing Taiwan. The gains it’d make from annexing a small bit of territory would be outweighed by the losses both of a costly war and exclusion from a marketplace it’s dominating in.

    China have economic interests in the status quo. Another win for liberalism!

  119. confessions

    Carey:

    It’s a GW Bush-ism absolute. The Syria stuff and how the world responds is still evolving, and we don’t want to be saying things that lock us into a particular position.

  120. peterk

    Predictions:
    Looking ugly for ALP. Reckon they’ll lose at least 20 seats.
    95 – 53, seems about the best they can hope for unless there’s a late swing back.
    NSW -10 (Lindsay, Greenway, Parramatta, Reid,Banks,Robertson, Dobell,McMahon, Werriwa, Kingsford-Smith
    Vic -3 (Corrangamite,Deakin & Latrobe)
    Tas – 3 (Bass, Braddon, Lyons)
    QLD – 3 Moreton, Petrie, Lilley)
    NT – 1 Lingari
    SA & WA – No Change
    2PP by state to LNP – NSW 55.5%, Vic 49%, QLD 57%, SA 51.5%, WA 57.5%, Tas 50%.

    In addition I’d watch Capricornia/Rankin/Blair, Bendigo/Ballarat/McEwen, & Page/Richmond/Eden-Monaro, Franklin.

  121. Scarpat

    The tensions will switch in a week from Gillard-Rudd to Abbott-Turnbull

    Abbott will have delivered so it will be all quiet on the Liberal western front.

  122. confessions

    What Dio said, who as usual says it better than me.

  123. wal kolla

    Lobbing missiles at syria gives assad an excuse to lob chemical weapons at israel. Israel would be outraged and would have the justification to launch a nuclear strike at syria. Iran and russia would respond and the US would be dragged into a nuclear war.

    2nd scenario would be russia incepts missiles and renders attack useless- cruise missiles are not that hard to shoot down. US would then launch an airstrike, which would need syrian air defences destroyed. Russia aids syria to shoot US planes. Cold war starts.

  124. Centre

    [I have studied many of you, written about you academically]

    😆

    Did you discover that you are quite a popular dropkick among many here?

  125. crikey whitey

    Nah. Carey Moore.

    Look again at West Wing.

    The script has been followed by our finest. In their different ways and means.

    Bazza Obama is (surely) not that dumb.

    Sure, he was foolish to draw the red line.

    Now he seeks a way out.

  126. Carey Moore

    FWIW, Abbott will go with whatever the US is doing. The Libs are just as huge supporters of the alliance as Labor (if not more so.)

  127. briefly

    [1725
    confessions

    I just like weather. Check out this aerial of Prevelly Beach this morning.
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=574705662570650&set=a.561730183868198.1073741923.269003509807535&type=1&theater%5D

    Great pic…awesome. Reminds me of a wedding I went to at Redgate once…half the party decided to have a swim at Prevelly and a couple of blokes got swept away by the rip at the river mouth….no danger, but truly powerful surge running north.

  128. deblonay

    POlitics of a different kind
    ______________________
    This year for the first time ..an AFL Final will be played next Saturday at Geelong’s Simmionds Stadium..a greatlkt renovated stadium ..Versus Fremantlke

    Fremantle was opposed to this and wanted to play on a larger Melb ground
    Geelong of course have a formidable record of winning at home

    So Fremantle Club ran a poll on their website …predictably they were getting 93% of voters in support of their”Don’t Go to Geeliong” poll…in the early polling…
    but …Geeloing supporters(one of my son ‘s amongst them ..) got wind and flooded the Fremantle site and the poll thxn showed 60% of Fremantle wanted to play at Geelong
    nest Saturday
    WOW the Fremantle site was then closed down and the poll stopped by the Fremantle Club !

  129. Socrates

    Bluepill

    I agree on the tribalism, it put Xanthippe off PB too, and myself for a while, and I am as disillusioned with the policy backflips and Labor party structure as most ex members.

    However when you refer to “smacking financial ruin” then you are talking Liberal soundbites. That is nonsense, Australia is still very secure financially. In fact, my main frustration with current Labor leaders, apart form the disastrous power struggle, has bee their inability to sell their financial success. We are per capita the third richest country on earth, with declining inflation, but you would never know it from the way Labor themselves talk.

  130. confessions

    Not sure what I think about Tom Watson criticising Abbott.

    [tom_watson ‏@tom_watson 40m
    “Full body contact never hurt anyone” says the man who wants to be Australia’s next PM to a netball team: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xv-QBeurUvc&feature=youtu.be … ]

    What business is it of his? He’s on stronger ground when he criticises the fawning uncritical coverage of News ltd papers to our election.

  131. wal kolla

    Peterk, agreed 100% those 3 victorian seats are the ones id be watching very closely. I think we will see double digit swings.

  132. Mod Lib

    Is this the Tom Watson that was coming to rescue the ALP?

    He should high tail it back to the anti-antipodes for all the good he will do here…

  133. J341983

    Tom Watson really should keep his mouth shut outside of what he was in the country to do…

  134. Centre

    Listen to Ray Warren:

    “6 days to Monkey Rule” 😐

  135. Thomas. Paine.

    It will be funny to watch. 5 minutes after the voters have vented their long held anger on Labor they will then look to how much they really dislike Abbott.

  136. Scarpat

    Is this the Tom Watson that was coming to rescue the ALP?

    I thought that he had come to rescue Australia from Rupert Murdoch, a far worthier cause.

  137. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/1763

    Murdoch required to do full pages of a PM to change gov.

  138. Socrates

    Deblonay

    I did not know Murdoch ran Freo as well!

  139. Thomas. Paine.

    Abbott will be Newscorpse safe until he delivers whatever it is they wanted.

  140. Mod Lib

    zoidlord:

    Huh?

  141. Scarpat

    It will be funny to watch. 5 minutes after the voters have vented their long held anger on Labor they will then look to how much they really dislike Abbott.

    That is why it is important to vote…it gives one whinging rights.

  142. Centre

    Next Sunday morning:

    – Will the sun still rise in the east?

    – Will the sky still be blue?

    – Will the Greens still be loons?

    I think so to all the above 😐

  143. Johnny Button

    TP 1768

    Agree.Buyers remorse within 6-8 months, then switch to Turnbull.

  144. Diogenes

    fess

    Even worse he has the quote wRONg. He says it’s “Full body contact never hurt anyone.”, when the quote was “a bit of body contact never hurt anyone” which is quite different.

    It’s pretty hypocritical from someone who complains about media reporting.

  145. J341983

    The world will continue … hopefully the ALP will be able to get their arses in gear and not spend the first time fighting and gift him a second.

  146. Scarpat

    Next Sunday morning:

    – Will the sun still rise in the east?

    – Will the sky still be blue?

    – Will the Greens still be loons?

    I think so to all the above 😐

    I would like to see the betting markets before committing myself.

  147. J341983

    *term*

  148. Carey Moore

    I am opposed to Abbott and do not support him being PM but I am going to treat his PMship with an open mind and give him a chance to prove me wrong. It’s not really productive to deem someone a failure from the start – it impairs your judgement (you start seeing what you want to see) and just makes you look like a sour boy crying wolf. Let him have his honeymoon and give him some clear air. Then, if he does turn out to be a dud, then let actual anger fly, instead of confected stuff.

  149. Dee

    bluepill
    [I am supposed to be impartial about you as subjects but over time I have become mad at your behaviour. I still don’t consider the coalition to have its best leaders of the last 20 years on deck but you have turned me against Labor.]

    That’s an instant fail!

  150. Centre

    lol Scarpat

  151. Fran Barlow

    [He should high tail it back to the anti-antipodes for all the good he will do here…]

    How amusing … Mod Lib adds parochialism to her official attributes.

    I say let him speak all he wants. Free speech is a good thing.

  152. Scarpat

    Then, if he does turn out to be a dud, then let actual anger fly, instead of confected stuff.

    CM,

    are you trying to shut down PB?

  153. deblonay

    Every Australian PM(Except Menzies) since WW2 has suffered a heavy final defeat

    _______

    Chifley in 49
    McMahon in 72
    Whitlam in 75
    Fraser in 83
    Keating in 96
    Howard in 07

    So who expects Rudd’s fate to different now ???
    (add to tha list … pre=-war Bruce in 29/Scullin in 31 all swept out in a landslide )

  154. Mod Lib

    Don’t I have my right to free speech as well then?

  155. wal kolla

    As a Sri Lankan- i had the greatest of misgivings for the Chinese. They came propped up the CBK government and bought political influence. And then there was tibet.
    Being in Australia and actually working with them i grew fonder of the people. It taught me u need to separate the people from the government.
    Hmm still stories about entire empty cities worry me about their future bitions

  156. Simon Baker

    Scarpat – Well Rudd delivered in 2007, and was out by 2010, it is not impossible the same will happen to Abbott

    Carey Moore What you are missing is the emergence of an increasingly isolationist right across the West. Cameron lost his parliamentary vote because of opposition from Tory backbenchers influenced by the rise of UKIP, in the US Rand Paul is now a leading contendor for the 2016 Republican nomination and Speaker Boehner and Republicans in the House are sceptical about action to say the least. In France, Marine Le Pen is rising in the polls. Abbott’s scepticism about intervention in Syria reflects that

  157. Carey Moore

    [CM,

    are you trying to shut down PB?]

    No, just make a few souls here have longer, happier lives 🙂

  158. J341983

    can we just call bluepill ‘Viagra’ now?

  159. Centre

    Scarpat

    We can’t be too sure about where the sun rises and the colour of the sky, but you don’t need a betting market, the Greens will always be LOONS 😀

  160. confessions

    Dio:

    Yeah, not doing himself many favours.

  161. davidwh

    I wonder if we all should be administered on of those blue pills before Saturday.

  162. DisplayName

    Eh, it’s not as if the world will end. If it does end, those of us who managed to survive can just vote Abbott out in another 3 years.

  163. Scarpat

    can we just call bluepill ‘Viagra’ now?

    No, Viagra does bring joy to some people.

  164. crikey whitey

    Carey Moore

    ‘And to the counterpoint that using a term like “baddies” trivialises a grave problem. It really doesn’t. What it does is make it more accessible and understandable to people who aren’t intellectuals or experts’.

    Sure. I think it was Guytaur who linked a website US to ‘the baddies’ today.

    What he did not refer to were the comments.

    Which may not have been posted at that time.

    The comments I read were absolutely gunga din about ‘baddies.’

    God save us from the non intellectuals or experts.

    Maybe Ronald Reagan might help me out.

  165. Fran Barlow

    [Don’t I have my right to free speech as well then?]

    Of course you do ML. You just exercised it.

  166. Centre

    Is there any chance we can get Superman to stop the earth from rotating on its axis so we never get to the next 6 days? 😯

  167. Mod Lib

    Bingo!

  168. Scarpat

    Of course you do ML. You just exercised it.

    ‘exorcised’ even…

  169. wal kolla

    Fran believes in guided free speech 😉

  170. zoidlord

    He would have to destroy a few cities first Centre…

    Firstly with Sydney and Canberra and Brisbane.

  171. zoidlord

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3s

    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 46 (-1) L/NP 54 (+1) #ausvotes

  172. Fran Barlow

    DN

    [Eh, it’s not as if the world will end. If it does end, those of us who managed to survive can just vote Abbott out in another 3 years.]

    Amusing …

  173. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    If Abbott doesn’t shape up, as he won’t, the libs are stuck with him. Nobody is going to sack a first term PM again this side of the end of time

  174. Fran Barlow

    DN

    [Eh, it’s not as if the world will end. If it does end, those of us who managed to survive can just vote Abbott out in another 3 years.]

    Amusing …

  175. DisplayName

    Double amusing! 🙂

  176. Centre

    Oh Franny, did you get the $21.00 for Labor so you could donate to the Loons I mean Greens 🙂

  177. Scarpat

    Is there any chance we can get Superman to stop the earth from rotating on its axis so we never get to the next 6 days?

    We should get Superman to stop Abbott rotating on his axis so we know what he stands for.

  178. Mod Lib

    That seems more realistic

  179. J341983

    54-46 as expected

  180. Johnny Button

    54 -46

  181. confessions

    glory gets Newspoll right again.

  182. wal kolla

    How was that interesting that 2PP?

  183. Johnny Button

    Wow…interesting.

  184. Socrates

    Fran believes speech should be free of error. We are free to express ourselves correctly 🙂

  185. Fran Barlow

    [Fran believes in guided free speech]

    That’s either very silly, or a banality.

  186. Mod Lib

    Coalition 1.01 on Centrebet.

    Can it get any lower?

  187. Centre

    54/46

    Carumba 😐

  188. Simon Baker

    deblonay – Depends how you define heavy? Howard lost 53-47, Keating lost 54-46, Fraser lost 53-47, Whitlam lost 56-44, McMahon lost 53-47, Curtin lost 51-49. So 53-47 seems about average for defeated governments, but Whitlam did significantly worse, Curtin a bit better. The ALP was back in 8 years when Whitlam lost, in 23 years when Curtin lost, so margin of defeat does not have a huge bearing on when the party will return to government (indeed following Keating’s and Howard’s defeats their parties either won the 2PP in the next election or forced a hung parliament)

  189. Carey Moore

    That’s not really an interesting poll. That’s pretty standard for the current range of polls. Maybe the interesting part is the primaries or PPM.

  190. crikey whitey

    I don’t know any male at least who has had a fantastic experience of Viagra.

    The persons who have recounted their experience of it to me speak of a hugely uncomfortable and unrelieved swelling, which may take more than 24 hours to recede.

    Even sex makes no difference, apparently. I am not sure about ejaculation. I suspect it doesn’t happen.

    The Joy of Anticipation. Bit like LNP.

  191. Simon Baker

    Galaxy was 53/47, so I expect the result to be either 54/46 or 53/47

  192. bluepill

    Socrates.. your path is one that I predicted for many after 2010, but most didn’t go your way.

    My rant about the finances reflects my journey to apostasy with Keynesian economics. Comparing ourselves with basket-case/potential basket-case economies in the OECD is hardly a ringing endorsement.

    Nevertheless, none here would concede even that the spending to stimulate the economy was marginally too high. Some economists consider that only about 10-15% of the stimulus was necessary for the reversal in trend and that much of the rest has simply been wasted. However.. we can never know because we can’t have parallel realities (without potentially illegal drugs or serious advances in modern physics).

    Nevertheless, this blog, generally, has shown me the very worst of people, whilst ‘tolerated outsiders’, kept like pets (Mod Lib,Glen and, more recently, Sean) show the softening of stated beliefs required to receive even the token affection of those with greatest power. A great insight into power imbalance and cultural demarcation. Eventually, they do more and more to get less and less affection.

    However, I am sickened by the behaviour of many here. Realising that people here are attached to real identities and walk around in the real world.. some really do need to spend more time with their families and break their addiction to this world..

    The behaviour is scarily close to that of heroin addicts I have worked with and studied in the past. Particularly the cognitive dissonance.

    I have almost finished now, so i don’t imagine that I’ll be around much after this election.. the doomsday predicted will very much come and this cult will irrevocably change.

  193. J341983

    ALP Primary down to 33% … Abbott preferred PM by 2%

  194. Simon Baker

    Kevin07 They will if polls show Turnbull would win an election Abbott would lose

  195. J341983

    I’m going to avoid passing comment on that primary vote number …

    And I think it’s a bit rich to chide people for their ‘shortcomings’ when you’ve spent 3 years analysing online personalities …

  196. Graeme

    “Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, September 1, 2013 at 10:26 pm |
    fess
    Even worse he has the quote wRONg. He says it’s “Full body contact never hurt anyone.”, when the quote was “a bit of body contact never hurt anyone” which is quite different.”

    Funny. The very point of netball is that it is a foul to even accidentally impede another player with any form of body contact … What other point is body contact if not to impede? Perhaps Abbott has his mind on frottage.

  197. briefly

    [1787
    Simon Baker

    Carey Moore What you are missing is the emergence of an increasingly isolationist right across the West. Cameron lost his parliamentary vote because of opposition from Tory backbenchers influenced by the rise of UKIP, in the US Rand Paul is now a leading contendor for the 2016 Republican nomination and Speaker Boehner and Republicans in the House are sceptical about action to say the least. In France, Marine Le Pen is rising in the polls. Abbott’s scepticism about intervention in Syria reflects that]

    There is more to this than rightist politics….

    [As Harold MacMillan is reported to have said in 1963 when handing over to Alec Douglas-Home: “You’ll be all right, old boy, as long as you don’t invade Afghanistan.”]

    In 2001, GW Bush and the neo-cons asserted a unilateral right to action on the part of the US, deliberately challenging the legalistic, multilateral code that had applied before 9/11, and by which the US accepted the idea of limits on its military discretion. This followed the First Gulf War, fought by Bush Senior, which resulted in a permanently inconclusive and unsatisfactory background deployment by the US and UK in support of sanctions against Iraq.

    Altogether, the US and its allies have been fighting in and around the Mid-East since 1990 – 23 years – and have remarkably little to show for it. The Middle East is no more stable, peaceful or well-disposed to the West now than it was in 1990. In lots of ways, it is much worse than, say, during the Cold War era, when the West was largely constrained by Soviet competition.

    The US has been involved in Afghanistan on and off since the late 1970’s, and arguably has brought itself nothing but tragedy as a result. Meantime, it first lost and then completely failed to regain its strategic prominence in Iran, where its enemies remain in clear control.

    The US and the West would be very wise to re-think their vital interests and chosen strategic methods, and to resolve not to get caught in more ethnic, tribal, territorial, religious or otherwise internecine wars – wars which they self-evidently cannot “win” and from which they must eventually withdraw.

    The West has an enduring commitment to Israel and an equally durable interest in order, peace and stability in the Middle East and around the Mediterranean littoral. It should be doing as much as is necessary to protect these, and really should not venture further without absolutely compelling reasons.

    This is the lesson of the last 30-odd years of failed policy, bungled diplomacy, great power hubris, military misadventure and recurring disruption.

    Anyone who doubts this should think back to 1853 when, for domestic political reasons, France and Britain went to war against Russia, ostensibly to “protect” Ottoman interests in the Black Sea. Before the War concluded in 1856, it had spread at various stages to include territories and theatres on the Danube, the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, The Caucasus, The Baltic, The White Sea, The Pacific, Sardinia and Greece. This was the first really pointless military adventurism of the modern era, and showed how war will so easily run off in all directions, more or less under its own impetus. Syria is another Ottoman territory and one the West should stay right away from.

  198. deblonay

    Briefly…on Mid East
    I enjoyed your well informed comments

    AS if on cue the American Conservative editor Buchanan calls upon House Speaker Boehner to use his power to restrain Obama from an attack on Syria

    He also makes the claim that “those interests ” who want a wider conflict arew certain to push for war
    ” Those interests” include the Israeli-zionist Lobby who always support war in the region against any Arab state…it’s their only policy now

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/will-boehner-stop-our-rogue-president/