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Federal Election 2013

Sep 1, 2013

Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

A week out from polling day, Newspoll gives Labor the same two-party preferred vote it had at the corresponding moment of the 1996 campaign.

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GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest weekly campaign Newspoll has the Coalition leading 54-46, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote, which was up three last week, is this week down four to 33%, with the Coalition down one to 46% and the Greens up one to 10%. It follows that “others”, which was down three in last week’s poll, is this week up four. Tony Abbott has hit the lead as preferred prime minister, Rudd’s 54-40 lead last week turning into a 43-41 deficit. Rudd has also hit a new low on his net personal ratings, his approval down four to 32% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is down one to 41% and up two to 51%. The sample size on the poll is the normal size, in this case 1116.

Morgan has also reported its weekly multi-mode poll, this one from a sample of 3746 respondents contacted by face-to-face, online and SMS surveying, which has the Labor primary vote at 34% (down half a point), the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens unchanged at 11%. This pans out to 52-48 on two-party preferred according to the Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated preferences figure (down from 53-47 last week), and 52.5-47.5 on the more usually favoured previous election preferences method (down from 54-46). It’s interesting to observe that Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding a spike in the “others” vote, up 2.5% to 12%. Morgan particularly spruiks a result of 4% for the Palmer United Party nationally and 7.5% in Queensland, suggesting Clive Palmer’s intensive television advertising might be achieving results.

BludgerTrack has been updated with both sets of results, including the state breakdowns from Morgan, causing the two-party preferred to shift 0.7% in favour of the Coalition, and the Coalition to gain seats on the seat projection in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, while losing one in South Australia.

UPDATE: Finally, Essential Research jumps on board, breaking with its normal form to publish weekly results from throughout the campaign rather than its fortnightly rolling averages. The latest week’s sample has the Coalition leading 53-47, out from 51-49 a week ago (the published 50-50 being down to a stronger result for Labor the previous week), with primary votes on 44% for the Coalition (up one), 35% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2024 comments

2,024 thoughts on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

  1. Hence Kenny’s assertion that rudd hasn’t lifted qld.

    Thanks Ghosty,
    Do you have any observations about the raft of erratic polls in QLD? Seat level and federal-state level?

  2. lefty e
    [53 seems to be the wider consensus. It’ll close a bit from there too!]

    You would say that … looking for a drop to 52.7 i believe 😀 – but ain’t gonna happen!

    btw lefty, I haven’t followed qld at all on its own. What does this poll compare with, say 2010 2PP or previous Nielsen (or other pollster) Qld only? The odds jumped to 17 the moment this poll appeared, admittedly only from 16 but I think Swan’s odds may have come out a bit and he’s barely favourite in lilley now 1.70/2.05. Bowen looking worse by the day in his seat accdg to sportingbet.

  3. Ok – just saw the comparison point thanks to zoidlord.

    So it’s all about KAP and PUP prefs- nah don’t believe that they’ll favour ALP so my guess is that it’s still about 45/55 in qld. And anyway Mr PB popularity Meguire Bob told me never to believe the polls.

  4. 2008

    The ALP were only 11% behind the LNP on 2PP in 2010 in Kennedy.

    http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-167.htm

    Katter left the Nats in about 2001 (that is over a decade ago).

    Kennedy has been held either by a Katter or an ALP MP since 1929. That includes it being held by Rob Hulls (who has since been Attorney-General of Victoria) for the ALP 1990-1993. Katter Senior only got it off the ALP in the 1996 landslide.

  5. An excellent piece from Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz on why Abbott’s cuts really should be a concern. They could cost 90,000 jobs.
    [Australia may have successfully dodged the global crisis, but some politicians seem to have missed the lessons it taught the rest of the world. In this election, the conservative side of politics has foreshadowed substantial cuts to the government budget. This would be a grave mistake, especially now.
    Recent experience around the world suggests that austerity can have devastating consequences, and especially so for fragile economies. Government cuts have helped push Britain, Spain and Greece’s economies deeper into recession and led to widespread public misery.]
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/australia-you-dont-know-how-good-youve-got-it-20130901-2sytb.html#ixzz2dkQH3rSn

  6. I can’t recall the previous QLD poll figure Mick – but 2010 was I think 44 ALP

    But like I’ve been saying: with minor parties rising in QLD, the 2PPs are wild guesswork. The fact they’ve asked PUP and KAP voters is something – but on the day HTVs could influence another way.

    When’s the fed Nielsen? Or do we only get QLD?

  7. There is also a report in the Courier-Mail regarding a Newspoll of QLD seats indicating Labor will lose 3 or 4 of their QLD seats so it looks like the QLD situation will remain confusing until Saturday night sometime.

  8. SMH has given the poll numbers as 1000
    So the number who nominated PUP as 1st preferance is 80
    The difference between 62% preferencing Labor and 50% is 9 people. And the difference between Labor 2PPs of 45 and 47 is 20 people. This puts the MOE in some perspective.

    It reminds me of an old Patrick Cook cartoon during the Joh gerrymander where two Qld farmers are talking and 1says “you might be right”. The title of the cartoon in “Massive swing in Queensland”

  9. Time to dump prefs based on last election yet?

    [Asked how they would allocate second preferences, 86 per cent of Greens voters nominated Labor, with a surprisingly high 62 per cent of PUP backers favouring Labor and even Katter’s Australian Party voters mostly leaning towards Labor with 55 per cent.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/kevin-rudd-not-getting-the-numbers-in-qld-20130902-2t167.html#ixzz2dlWsRRMh

  10. An interesting thing about a party like Katter’s is the concentration of votes.
    Assuming the state wide pv is 4% and that Katter will get a personal pv of 50% in Kennedy and given that there are 29 seats in Qld. The average vote for Katter’s party in the other 28 seats is about 2%. However If we guess that Katter will get something like 10% in another 3 NQ seats. In which case the party vote in the remaining 25 seats is a derisory 1.4%

  11. Those figures are assuming there is a KAP candidate in each Qld electorate but as there are a few seats without a candidate the % pv would be a little higher.