tip off

ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A new ReachTEL poll offers Labor some vague encouragement, and concurs with Morgan and Essential in having Clive Palmer’s party at 4% nationally.

This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.

In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.

Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.

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  • 1
    Al Dente
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 6:30 am | Permalink

    Firsties?

  • 2
    Al Dente
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 6:30 am | Permalink

    I ACTUALLY DID IT! *clicks heels*

  • 3
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 6:32 am | Permalink

    Only 3 more sleeps until the day of fundamental injustice mk2. Remember there’s got to be a morning after.

  • 4
    geoffrey
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 6:32 am | Permalink

    no i’m first really

  • 5
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 6:33 am | Permalink

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. There’s a worrying trajectory here.
    Vote1 Liberal – the party of private schools.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/private-schools-and-the-art-of-ripping-off-parents-20130903-2t357.html
    If you’re up to it Peter Hartcher opines on the election result and why.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/parties-blown-in-the-wind-20130903-2t38x.html
    London to a brick that the Coalition Luddites will flippantly dismiss this study.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/broadband-study-backs-benefits-of-labors-network-20130903-2t3jz.html
    Ross Gittins reckons Abott will change the rhetoric once he slides into ofice.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/abbott-wont-rush-into-making-cuts-20130903-2t33o.html
    Jonathon Holmes has a go at our collectice CC consciences.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/from-great-moral-challenge-to-indifference-20130903-2t355.html
    Abbott emulating Howard and Rick Perry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/hes-wrong-historians-say-as-tony-abbott-reignites-history-wars-20130903-2t3bc.html
    Truly, this woman is a shocker. In so many respects.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/fiona-scotts-asylumseeker-comment-the-silliest-of-the-campaign-20130903-2t2n9.html
    ABSOLUTELY MUST SEE! Ron Tandberg with the choice we have.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/ron-tandberg/20090910-fixc.html

  • 6
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 6:33 am | Permalink

    Section 2 . . .

    Alan Moir has Popeye giving us a discourse on global politics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    OH DEAR!!! David Rowe uses Homer for this one. Just check out the sirens!
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    David Pope on Political Climate Change. Look for the lizard.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg does not like Abbott’s Direct Action plan.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  • 7
    geoffrey
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 6:33 am | Permalink

    Edward StJohn
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 6:32 am | PERMALINK
    Only 3 more sleeps until the day of fundamental injustice mk2. Remember there’s got to be a morning after.

    —what does this mean?

  • 8
    geoffrey
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 6:34 am | Permalink

    where is nielsen?

  • 9
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 6:43 am | Permalink

    Seventy years today since the 8th Army landed on the Italian mainland.

  • 10
    New2This
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 6:46 am | Permalink

    Rudd’s staged managed QandA stunt blows up in face… Surely you can see through Kevin now…

  • 11
    BK
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 6:49 am | Permalink

    And from the land of the Free -

    The relationship between union membership and inequality in the US. Be aware.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/09/03/video-unions-matter-measly-1-minute-19-seconds/
    Some cartoons on the Repugs and Syria.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/09/03/the-gop-syria/
    The Texans don’t like red tape either.
    http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/lesson-learned-after-texas-fertilizer

  • 12
    geoffrey
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 6:56 am | Permalink

    New2This
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 6:46 am | PERMALINK
    Rudd’s staged managed QandA stunt blows up in face… Surely you can see through Kevin now…

    — what does this mean?

  • 13
    sprocket_
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 6:59 am | Permalink

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/why_individual_seat_polls_can_confuse_jX14W5rdPurGJvQgeOtnlL

    Interesting attempt at rationale of discrepancy between seat and national polls, and robo polling vs trained interviews.

    Focus is on Russ in Griffith and Jayme Diaz in Greenway

  • 14
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:08 am | Permalink

    Focus is on Russ in Griffith and Jayme Diaz in Greenway

    Russ Hinze?

  • 15
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:08 am | Permalink

    The ReachTEL is rather misleading without a Greens PV figure quoted.

  • 16
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:12 am | Permalink

    Where is Meguire Bob?

  • 17
    River
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:14 am | Permalink

    Two notable things in the morning news.

    Firstly, Roger Corbett of Fairfax slammed Rudd on Lateline and stated the Labor party should have stuck with Gillard (true).

    Secondly, Rudd’s brother is voting liberal *hohoho*. Okay, the second piece wasn’t news but I wanted to say it anyway :D

  • 18
    geoffrey
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:20 am | Permalink

    one cannot underestimate the dangerous deluded meglomania of abbott – he truly believes he is superior leadership material, a league above anyone on labor – he does not respect office or persons of PM form other party – he has sought to trash economy and political systems of this country – he is the penultimate whiteanter who now seeks to save on international scale any trouble cause. i hope other parties and public give him hell, if he is still here in a weeks time

  • 19
    geoffrey
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:21 am | Permalink

    corbett is unprofessional … what is his motivations … he can say that after election or long before.

  • 20
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:21 am | Permalink

    Tony Abbott has campaigned with iron discipline which augurs well for his prime ministership.

    “It’s the economy, stupid” is not working for Labor, which is widely regarded as divided and disfunctional.

    Most galling is the gloating of the ragtag mob of neanderthals and smug second-raters who are about to be swept into office on Tony’s coat-tails.

  • 21
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:22 am | Permalink

    River

    Having “slammed” Labor over restating Rudd, Corbett then went on to support Abbott in every way. Each of his words revealed his support for the Lib/RW way of thinking, right down to the “ABC is providing unfair competition for commercial enterprises.”

  • 22
    shellbell
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:24 am | Permalink

    Nice rationalisation

    The topic of private versus state schooling is a battleground for well-meaning parents. Anti-capitalist filmmaker Michael Moore famously said he sent his daughter to a private school in New York rather than the local state school (which required pupils to pass through a metal detector each day) because ''our daughter is not the one to be sacrificed to make things better''.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/private-schools-and-the-art-of-ripping-off-parents-20130903-2t357.html#ixzz2drp2eyEP

  • 23
    Kinkajou
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:25 am | Permalink

    Eye out for the sneaky items that will be referred to as “promised before the election” emerging from today…taking on the unions….history wars….work choices new name…AWU slush fund and Thompson miraculously appearing in the rag yesterday…who wooda thunk

  • 24
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:25 am | Permalink

    Toff

    Most galling is the gloating of the ragtag mob of neanderthals and smug second-raters who are about to be swept into office on Tony’s coat-tails.

    Their gloating attitude, which is that of the smartarsed bully, was well displayed in last night’s posts.

  • 25
    bluepill
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:25 am | Permalink

    Geoffrey..

    ..the penultimate whiteanter..

    Yes, nice choice of word: “penultimate”, since the top prize must go to KRudd, who, until very recently was the most despised politician in Australia by many in PB..

    How times change ;)

  • 26
    Kinkajou
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:26 am | Permalink

    Toff

    I thought you were one of them

    terrifyingly DLP Abbott may be the only protection left

  • 27
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:27 am | Permalink

    shellbell

    This was telling. No wonder the system can’t be reformed.

    In Britain, 7 per cent of the population is educated at private schools. In the US, it is about 10 per cent. In Australia, it is 35 per cent and rising. Even more unusually, Australian ''private'' schools receive extensive public funding.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/private-schools-and-the-art-of-ripping-off-parents-20130903-2t357.html#ixzz2drqAFOeI

  • 28
    bluepill
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:28 am | Permalink

    Labor makes its usual errors:

    1. Treating the electorate as mugs as they lie through their teeth.
    2. Underestimating Abbott.. about to despose his third ALP PM in four years.
    3. Failing to admit that its electoral woes are largely its own fault.

  • 29
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:28 am | Permalink

    Morning all. On the On line news I am stunned at the negative media coverage of Labor, just as Rudd has been having a better week and the polls are narrowing. In the past I have felt Labor focused too much on negative media coverage, but this time I agree the complaint is justified.

    First RBA and Fairfax exec Roger Corbet takes a prominent swipe at Rudd on Lateline, now lead item in ABC on line news. Who cares? Cornbet is not a journalist, and now works for an organisation owned by wealthy interests opposed to government policy. The question is which candidate is competent. The leadership spat damaged Labor, but did not stop the governing.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-04/fairfax-chairman-roger-corbett-attacks-kevin-rudd/4933128

    Second the anti-Murdoch GetUp ad has been banned by all three commercial networks. WTF? Also, this significant news was not even covered in ABC online.

    Australia's commercial TV networks have banned an advertisement that criticises the anti-Labor coverage of Rupert Murdoch's newspapers.

    Channels Seven and Ten refused to air the ad commissioned by GetUp, while Nine screened it over four days in Brisbane – then cancelled it after blaming a "coding error".

    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/antimurdoch-ad-banned-from-television-20130903-2t37c.html

    I cannot ever recall seeing all the media tilted one way, not just Packer and Murdoch in the past. What deals has Abbott done to get this?

    In the same week serious doubts have been cast on Abbott’s policy on climate change (evidence is it is real), economics (Nobel laureatte Stiglitz says recession risk is real) and border protection (Indonesia says shop the boats is an insult). Yet the media heat is still on Rudd, even after he fronts up to be grilled on QandA, while Abbott hides from questions like a grown up Jamie Diaz!

    The Reachtel poll is also not covered on the ABC.

    I am dismayed. The media fix is in, and it is being played out right now.

  • 30
    Simon Baker
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:28 am | Permalink

    Reachtel had it 52-48 when Rudd returned as leader, and had one of the lower Rudd bounces of all the polls. If that still holds true other polls could start showing 51-49, that is potential territory for a government re-election. This election may not be over yet folks!
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2013

  • 31
    Simon Baker
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:28 am | Permalink

    Reachtel had it 52-48 when Rudd returned as leader, and had one of the lower Rudd bounces of all the polls. If that still holds true other polls could start showing 51-49, that is potential territory for a government re-election. This election may not be over yet folks!
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2013

  • 32
    geoffrey
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:28 am | Permalink

    Toorak Toff
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:21 am | PERMALINK
    Tony Abbott has campaigned with iron discipline which augurs well for his prime ministership.

    “It’s the economy, stupid” is not working for Labor, which is widely regarded as divided and disfunctional.

    Most galling is the gloating of the ragtag mob of neanderthals and smug second-raters who are about to be swept into office on Tony’s coat-tails.
    —— autocrats have iron discipline .. nice contradiction in your message ..but tony has all traits of authoritarian personality , disciplined only because superficial. he will implode

  • 33
    Simon Baker
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:29 am | Permalink

    Although I would say the best the ALP can probably now hope for is another hung parliament, perhaps helped by the rise of Palmer

  • 34
    womble
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:31 am | Permalink

    Morning all

    I’m still waking up but have no idea what William’s above graphs mean?

    i know that 52-48 makes things very interesting though, the election is tighter than the media is making out, there is a move to Labor this week after Kevin found his mojo. i expect a 51-49 by the end of the week. With the others and greens not being calculated correctly, Labor can win from there imo

  • 35
    geoffrey
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:31 am | Permalink

    socrates

    the get up ad is too smart by half … the poo bit is amateurism over offensive and makes it too easy to knock back – they needed to pitch this right and envisage any risk.

  • 36
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:31 am | Permalink

    Too many scandals eh kinkajou ? I guess it’s hard to suppress them all in a month.

  • 37
    rummel
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:34 am | Permalink

    Interesting, its a News and Fairfax media conspiracy now…. Everyone is against Labor.

    Also goes someway to support Baghdad Bobs rigged Poll conspiracy theories.

  • 38
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:34 am | Permalink

    geoffrey

    Listening overnight to TA’s determination to use all constitutional means to destroy the “Carbon Tax”, I am seeing the same man who tried to bring down the Labor govt because he didn’t agree with the outcome of negotiations, which would have been respected in other jurisdictions.

    If he continues in this line, he will wreck all the conventions of parliament, just as he tried to wreck the Gillard govt with his continuous SSO stunts.

  • 39
    bluepill
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:36 am | Permalink

    A key difference between both major parties appears to be the degree in which they admit their own policy errors being out of kilter with the electorate.

    A Carbon Tax/Carbon trading model was seen as amongst the least economically effective methods of abating global CO2 emissions in Copenhagen, Europe’s ETS was not travelling well and then Gillard imposes a tax against stated commitment in the 2010 campaign not to. The Australian people oppose a Carbon Tax to identical levels (often greater than) similar polls on Workchoices legislation in 2007.

    Yet the ALP stubbornly refuses to consider that it read the electorate poorly and that the change in the political climate against Labor is, in part, this resistance of the electorate to that tax and the way it was introduced.

    In contrast, the coalition admitted a bridge too far with WC and capitulated in the senate.

    Make no mistake.. if Abbott goes to DD, since his very political reputation in the electorate depends on it. The public will continue the flogging started this Saturday at being dragged back to the polls solely because of ALP belligerence.

    I hope we do have a DD on the issue. It will destabilise the ALP even further and the wave of conservative sentiment will clean out the senate nicely.

  • 40
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:39 am | Permalink

    This should be re-posted, IMO, every time the Lib trolls come here to deny the benefits.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/broadband-study-backs-benefits-of-labors-network-20130903-2t3jz.html

  • 41
    Toorak Toff
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:45 am | Permalink

    Kinkajou, I agree. As on who got into politics as an opponent of the DLP, I now see Abbott’s DLP heritage as our last best hope against unbridled capitalism. For the next few years, anyway.

  • 42
    womble
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:46 am | Permalink

    ok, waking up properly now – the Other line in William’s graphs must be under, and the same as, the Greens in the first couple

    So if there is roughly 20% of the vote not being allocated correctly, i.e. others 40/60 instead of 60/40 and the Greens at 80/20 instead of closer to 90/20 – it’s far from over yet

    Has the 4% for Clive nationally been split 1.6/2.4 or 2.4/1.6 as it should be???

  • 43
    Simon Baker
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:46 am | Permalink

    Wasn’t 52-48 the margin Keating trailed by in the final Newspoll of 1993?

  • 44
    Benji
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:47 am | Permalink

    The Reachtel primaries are:

    ALP: 35.3
    LNP: 44.2
    Green: 9.7
    PUP: 4.4
    KAP: 0.9

    So the primary figure reported by 7 is not 45 for LNP but 44.

    Will be interesting to see the state breakdowns later William.

  • 45
    River
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:47 am | Permalink

    The Reachtel poll is also not covered on the ABC.

    The Reachtel poll is not as positive as you might think, it’s just more of the same and that’s probably why it wasn’t covered by the ABC (if they covered every single poll result, it’s all you’d hear.) The primary is 45-35 according to ReachTel, and the difference is the PUP vote again. Now, according to Crikey 60% of the PUP vote is going to Labor, but I’ve heard another source say that it’s only 40% going to Labor. Neither of these sources are accurate because of the massive MOE they are getting. So we don’t know where the PUP prefs are heading and ReachTel distributed them based on last election results.

    So, in summary, primary is 45-35 to Coalition (which is the same as essential and a host of other polls, essential was 44-34), and 2PP could be anything. Not exactly newsworthy.

  • 46
    Simon Baker
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:48 am | Permalink

    rummell Having the media barons against him is good for Rudd, he likes being the underdog

  • 47
    rummel
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:49 am | Permalink

    Simon Baker
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:48 am | PERMALINK
    rummell Having the media barons against him is good for Rudd, he likes being the underdog

    Yep, he is the under dog alright.

  • 48
    sprocket_
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 5m
    #ReachTEL Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 (+1) L/NP 52 (-1) #ausvotes

    the swing back is on. Voters have looked at what Abbott/Murdoch are offering and think it stinks.

  • 49
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:54 am | Permalink

    Goeffrey

    That the Getup add is tasteless is irrelevant. Have their been any complaints? TV networks have screened far worse until they were banned by our very weak regulator. They also banned the anti-Coles and Woolies gambling ads last year. This is blatant political censorship of a complaint about political bias.

  • 50
    rummel
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:54 am | Permalink

    sprocket_
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:53 am | PERMALINK
    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 5m
    #ReachTEL Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 (+1) L/NP 52 (-1) #ausvotes

    the swing back is on. Voters have looked at what Abbott/Murdoch are offering and think it stinks.

    Its da narrowing…… lol

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