tip off

ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A new ReachTEL poll offers Labor some vague encouragement, and concurs with Morgan and Essential in having Clive Palmer’s party at 4% nationally.

This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.

In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.

Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.

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  • 51
    River
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:54 am | Permalink

    44.The Reachtel primaries are:

    ALP: 35.3
    LNP: 44.2
    Green: 9.7
    PUP: 4.4
    KAP: 0.9

    So the primary figure reported by 7 is not 45 for LNP but 44.

    Will be interesting to see the state breakdowns later William.

    Ignore my last post, it seems William may have reported the primary vote wrong.

    According to Yahoo, the Coalitions primary is down to 41.3%. PUP cannibilising Libs primary?

  • 52
    River
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:56 am | Permalink

    The Coalition’s primary vote has dropped by over two per cent since last week to 41.3%, but preference flows from minor parties keep Mr Abbott well ahead of Labor.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/election/a/-/article/18774847/australians-back-scrapping-carbon-tax/

  • 53
    Simon Baker
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:57 am | Permalink

    Remember in NH 2008 when Hillary was behind Obama until she had a highly emotional interview and won the primary against all poll predictions, could Rudd’s ABC interview do the same?

  • 54
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:03 am | Permalink

    Good article by Jonathan Holmes. Outcome of making Climate Change a political football – not good.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/from-great-moral-challenge-to-indifference-20130903-2t355.html

  • 55
    rummel
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    So, let me get this right…..

    Fairfax boss comes out and gives Kev a good smack and Rudd says its a free country, while claiming conspiracies and anti democratic going on’s by News ltd. lol

    Be consistent Kevin.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/labor-should-have-stuck-with-julia-gillard-instead-of-a-discredited-kevin-rudd-says-fairfax-chairman-20130904-2t3x5.html

  • 56
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:06 am | Permalink

    Morning all

    The Rabbott is well and truly giving me the shits. We have experienced the warmest winter on record here in Melbourne and he is carrying in about the carbon tax. What a fraud. Poor fellow my country.

  • 57
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    rummel

    No frickin wonder fairfax is going broke. Who even bothers reading their tripe anymore

  • 58
    Mod Lib
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    Benji
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:47 am | PERMALINK
    The Reachtel primaries are:

    ALP: 35.3
    LNP: 44.2
    Green: 9.7
    PUP: 4.4
    KAP: 0.9

    So the primary figure reported by 7 is not 45 for LNP but 44.

    Will be interesting to see the state breakdowns later William.

    The Lib primary is reported as 41.3% with a Nat primary of 2.9%

    You are right that the LNP vote should therefore be 44.2% rather than 45%. However, the Coalition TPP% from these primaries based on 2010 election preference distribution would actually be 53% to 47% by my calculations!

  • 59
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    David Donovan

    The final draft of the last #Ashbygate story before the election has been received. It is a doozy. It will be up this morning.

  • 60
    Dee
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    Corbet also said that Fairfax has not engaged in a 6-8 month campaign against the government going as far as to disrespect the office of PM by publishing pictures of the PM in a funny suit.

    He was wishy washy on this point but it was clear what he was alluding to and Alberici did not push him on this point and he lacked the guts to just come out and name Murdoch.

  • 61
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:12 am | Permalink

    Morning all.

    Vote Liberal, crash consumer confidence.

    Colin Barnett's hardline State Budget has hit WA voters and shoppers with consumer confidence sliding in its wake.

    The WA Chamber of Commerce and Industry-Curtin University measure of consumer sentiment, to be released today, found almost one in every two shoppers believes the political environment is now weighing on them.

    While there has been continuing concern about how the Federal election would play out on consumers, the chamber's survey is the first to show an impact from the State political landscape.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/18775038/wa-voters-lose-faith-in-political-process/

  • 62
    womble
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:14 am | Permalink

    River 41.3 primary is only for the Liberals, Nats are on 2.9%

    Question is are the unknown preference flows from Palmer being worked out correctly and was the 62/38 split to Labor in Nielsen correct???

    They say they use 2010 flows but don’t say how they split the Palmer vote so I imagine 40/60

    Also interesting that 6% are uncommitted and 13.1 somewhat committed to their vote

    http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-3september13

  • 63
    Dee
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:15 am | Permalink

    Meguire Bob said he was leaving due to all the right wing trolls complaints about his positivity.

  • 64
    Rosemour or Less
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:16 am | Permalink

    EdwardStJohn

    sure, but we’ll all be upside down….

  • 65
    Dee
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:17 am | Permalink

    Victoria

    Did I hear correctly that Rabbott has already started talking about ditching DA?

  • 66
    ltep
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:18 am | Permalink

    Meguire Bob said he was leaving due to all the right wing trolls complaints about his positivity.

    There’s positivity and there’s something else.

  • 67
    womble
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:19 am | Permalink

    Mod Lib are using 40/60 for all “other” votes???

  • 68
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:20 am | Permalink

    grace pettigrew ‏@broomstick33 1h
    #abcrn According to FKelly we cannot wait for the political ad blackout at midnight tonight. Journalists are BORED with this election

    Andrew Elder ‏@awelder Protected account 51s
    @broomstick33 So that's why they suck at reporting it

  • 69
    Dee
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:21 am | Permalink

    Itep

    You must always believe you can win.

    MB knows the score board but continues to fight on and stir up the tories. :grin:

  • 70
    geoffrey
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:23 am | Permalink

    socrates

    yes it is censorship but yes it is bad ad. it would have been banned anyway. i think getup should be cleverer under current climate …

  • 71
    shellbell
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:24 am | Permalink

    David Donovan

    The final draft of the last #Ashbygate story before the election has been received. It is a doozy. It will be up this morning.

    He keeps on saying this.

  • 72
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:24 am | Permalink

    Apparently TA believes that because he spent half his PC speech on “Carbon Tax”, that automatically gives him a mandate to call a DD if majority don’t support him.

    But what if no one was listening :D

  • 73
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:24 am | Permalink

    Abbott indicated he would stick to his proposed climate budget even if it appeared insufficient to enable Australia to meet its 2020 emissions reduction target. Was it lack of discipline, was it cockiness, or was it an act of brazen honesty?

    His blunt adherence to fiscal austerity ahead of Australia’s international climate treaty obligations may just yet bring the issue of climate change to life in the dying days of this election. It deepens the gulf between the Coalition, and Labor and the Greens, by promising a return to the climate renegadism and climate scepticism of the Howard era.

    https://theconversation.com/soft-targets-no-caps-hot-world-abbott-clarifies-his-position-on-climate-policy-17761

    No, it is worse than that. Abbott’s policy throws truckloads of public money (much, much more than Australia spent on the fiscal stimulus during the GFC for eg) at trying to reach a 5% emissions reductions target.

    If Abbott is now saying he would spend the money anyway, even if the targets won’t be met, that is an appalling waste of public funds.

    But alas Labor has chosen not to attack Abbott for reckless fiscal profligacy, and so he can admit these things and there won’t be any blowback on him. *Sigh*

  • 74
    geoffrey
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:24 am | Permalink

    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:34 am | PERMALINK
    geoffrey

    Listening overnight to TA’s determination to use all constitutional means to destroy the “Carbon Tax”, I am seeing the same man who tried to bring down the Labor govt because he didn’t agree with the outcome of negotiations, which would have been respected in other jurisdictions.

    If he continues in this line, he will wreck all the conventions of parliament, just as he tried to wreck the Gillard govt with his continuous SSO stunts.

    ——— agree 100%. abbott is unspeakable. i do not wish him office at all …. but would not be very comfortable if supporting him put it that way. he is all we think plus more. embarrassment, uneducated, moralising, wrecker

  • 75
    pithicus
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:26 am | Permalink

    If the Alp do pull this off , Meguire will the the greatest soothsayer of our time.

  • 76
    rummel
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:27 am | Permalink

    Dee
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:15 am | PERMALINK
    Meguire Bob said he was leaving due to all the right wing trolls complaints about his positivity.

    I really enjoyed his positivity.

  • 77
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:28 am | Permalink

    Dee

    As per usual Abbott talks out of both sides of his mouth. Dtiching Direct Action on one hand, but on the other only setting aside a fixed amount and when that runs out. Whatever……

  • 78
    womble
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:29 am | Permalink

    Probably throwing money away but I’ve dipped back in and had another bet on Labor on Betfair – took all the $27 and got the rest at $26. There is still plenty there on the lay side at $1.04 though

    The bets will either make for a even sadder night on Saturday or a even happier one :)

  • 79
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:29 am | Permalink

    Meguire Bob

    If you are around, dont let the boring as batshit trolls stop you from posting.

  • 80
    geoffrey
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:31 am | Permalink

    meguire bob is truly bit of coward if left at last minute.

    others have maintained optimism without his theatre.
    ellis has bet each way today as well- after all his melodrama.

  • 81
    geoffrey
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:32 am | Permalink

    victoria

    poor fellow my country – good phrase. hope not

  • 82
    geoffrey
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:33 am | Permalink

    yes kev uses free press argument too much … hope he is not simplistic on tat and does want reform – assume it is to not create more bad press, but he could do better

  • 83
    Kinkajou
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:34 am | Permalink

    Come back Bob all is forgiven

    Getting in first for next week

  • 84
    Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:35 am | Permalink

    Hows the Labor brains trust GST Scare idea coming along??

    According to the ALP Brains trust here it was a brilliant strategy to take despite Coalition supporters here pointing out it looked desperate and pathetic.

    Haven’t heard much about the GST Scare campaign for over a few weeks now so just wondering what happened to your brilliant Brains Trust strategy???

  • 85
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:35 am | Permalink

    @merryolc: Abbott/Pyne education plan frightening. Read this before voting http://bit.ly/1750QyC #ausvotes #gonski

  • 86
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:35 am | Permalink

    Well look at that the NT News daily Abbott campaign spread called news. Negative story Rudd with story how Abbott delivers on job promises.

    Maybe the NT News has joined a nationwide contest of Murdoch papers to see who can be most corrupt.

    First prize for the lucky editor is to give Rupert a daily sponge bath. And you know they will just love it, having already discarded any sense of honesty decency to sell themselves in the hope getting a cuddle from Rupert and the hope of an octogenarian tongue bath.

    NT News as low trashy and dishonest as any Murdoch dog poo wrapper.

  • 87
    Kinkajou
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:36 am | Permalink

    I am dismayed. The media fix is in, and it is being played out right now.

    been in since february as far I can see

  • 88
    Wesley Rickard
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:37 am | Permalink

    Lol, swing is on to ALP??
    Gee you lefties get overly excited when the polls move a tad your way!
    Aren’t all the polls biased according to yourselves, but amazingly true when it favors you?
    “This is game on”! “We are going to win this”!, really?
    Deluding yourselves!

  • 89
    mari
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:38 am | Permalink

    Have had two lovely days with my sister in the city, what a wonderful city Sydney is walked around the Harbour took great photos to send to overseas friends who want to come over and visit

    Notice baby Sean on scrolling through last night comments wasn’t posting but one of his alter egos was flat out, with LNP lies on NBN

    Finally I have persuaded my sister to vote ALP in upper house plus 2 friends, they are frightened of TA getting control of both houses. First time for any of them, they live in a very safe LNP seat so don’t worry about the Reps, :grin:

  • 90
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:39 am | Permalink

    Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 3m
    G'day @ReachTEL, may I ask a qstion: do u include PUP & KAP in initial "which of these parties" qstn? If so, for how long have you been?

  • 91
    ltep
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:39 am | Permalink

    Just being positive apparently Wesley.

  • 92
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:39 am | Permalink

    mari

    Well done.

    I found it easy scroll through pages this morning. :D

  • 93
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:40 am | Permalink

    mari:

    Nice to see you again. I take it you are finally back home now after many months away. Must feel good to be back.

  • 94
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:41 am | Permalink

    The Spotted Turtledoves are cooing this morning – a feral species, of course.

    They have invaded Canberra by way of Queanbeyan.

  • 95
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:43 am | Permalink

    Mike Seccombe
    http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/are-you-scared-yet-the-mugging-of-the-australian-electorate/691/

    The bottom line is that, by dint of relentless negativity, Tony Abbott’s opposition has convinced enough swinging voters that they have, in Frank Rizzo’s terms, been mugged over the past three years.

    And in truth they have been mugged. The irony is, the victims have misidentified the assailant.

  • 96
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:45 am | Permalink

    16 degrees in Melbourne overnight.

    I wonder whether any of the 66% of Liberal supporters might just have had a glimmering of a sneaky thought that maybe, just maybe, Abbott was wrong when he opined that climate change is crap?

    There is one good thing about AGW. It will bite the Liberals in the bum.

    I do hope the firies have done the responsible thing and done their fuel reduction burns in time.

  • 97
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:46 am | Permalink

    lizzie
    Are you trying to say that Abbott has treated the voters like mugs because he lies to them all the time?

  • 98
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:46 am | Permalink

    Given the total loss of pretence of honesty and truth in much of the media, and the blanket carpet bombing of positive Abbott negative labor stories, it is a wonder Labor registers at all.

    Murdoch in his old age has not only decided to not give a toss but to give up any pretence. And it seems he has found enough vomit eating dogs in Australia to run his papers.

  • 99
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:47 am | Permalink

    Boerwar

    It feels like we are in the middle of Summer. It is surreal.

  • 100
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:48 am | Permalink

    lizzie

    We are in the information age, and supposed to be more educated. Why are the voters able to be conned?

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