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Federal Election 2013

Sep 4, 2013

ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A new ReachTEL poll offers Labor some vague encouragement, and concurs with Morgan and Essential in having Clive Palmer's party at 4% nationally.

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This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.

In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.

Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1993 comments

1,993 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

  1. Scarpat

    -Coalition: 399,800 (71.8%)

    Obviously Liberal voters are fleeing the country with the likely coming of TA…

  2. bemused

    Diogenes @ 1678

    As far as I am aware, no counting takes place until the day of the election after the polls have closed.

  3. Fran Barlow

    [It’s being reported that Abbott is winning the war on facebook.]

    War on Terror, War on Boats, burqua-to-burqua traffic to Lindsay, Debt, Drugs, Unions, Clean Energy, Taxes, Gay Marriage, non-sexy women in politics, slightly sexy men that make him uncomfortable … no wonder he is expanding defence spending. Now it’s facebook’s turn.

    So much war. All I am saying is give peace a chance …

    😉

  4. guytaur

    lateline has Butler v Hunt as its debate tonight

  5. geoffrey

    guytaur

    i do indeed. to a very large extent, or to an extent that is perceived larger by the failure of greens to take any resposnbility ,,, this is moral blindness … noone would say – not even you – that they share no blame at all. whatever blame they share grows by their obdurate delusional self righteousness. milne has been bagin out rudd for two years – great diplomacy. over it. but if they can learn to fight libs more than they do labor good.

  6. kezza2

    bemused

    [Yeah, right. Go for it.

    Tell someone who cares.]

    Epitomises the attitude to long-term Laborites. who have worked for the party for over 30 years, from the Griffin Groupies.

    Okay, I’ve called the candidate and told him I won’t be handing out HTV cards on Saturday.

    He understood completely. Said Rudd had run the worst campaign ever.

    Hope you’re happy.

  7. This little black duck

    guytaur@1697

    lateline has Butler v Hunt as its debate tonight

    About to endure.

  8. Darren Laver

    [My tweets this evening on point:

    [Annabel Crabb‏@annabelcrabb
    And could you also please watch #kitchencabinet at 8pm on ABC1 and I promise next week I will shut up thank you.

    Fran Barlow‏@fran_b__
    @annabelcrabb couldn’t you stop right now? Isn’t the public conversation vacuous and debauched enough as it stands? #wontbewatching

    Fran Barlow‏@fran_b__
    @annabelcrabb I wonder if you could specify the datum salient to politics that your show’s broadcast will add to the pool of insight.

    Annabel Crabb‏@annabelcrabb
    @fran_b__ would probably be easier for you just to watch it, on the whole

    Fran Barlow‏@fran_b__
    @annabelcrabb I I’ve seen the trailers in the past. The air is heavy with inanity, and I see no warrant to add yours to it. #nonresponsive

    And from another poster:

    [Andrew White‏@litbright
    @fran_b__ @annabelcrabb Fran, you know you want to watch. However, I’m happy to summarise it all later so you can decide whether to iView.

    Fran Barlow‏@fran_b__2h
    @litbright Nope. Nothing I’ve read or heard from @annabelcrabb suggests that the provenance of any insight would be found in this show

    Some thought I was too harsh, and insufficiently tolerant of lightheartedness. I described this as a demand for sugar on fairyfloss.]

    Could not agree more.

    Kitchen Cabinet is yet another example of how vacuous ABC has become and Ms Crabbe is the leader of this movement.

    Chief Political Cooking Correspondent? Reported salary of $200k?

    Enough to make one puke.

  9. confessions

    perhaps River is onto something with Facebook being a natural Abbott haunt.

    This was just posted in my Facebook timeline:
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=553915951305937

  10. Diogenes

    I’m a scientist, at least in a past life, and they are all incorrect.

    [1. Anthropogenic climate change is genuine and measurable
    2. Vaccination for all contagious diseases is safe and necessary to protect populations
    3. GM food poses absolutely no health risk to people who consume it
    4. Evolution is verifiable and proven empirically]

  11. geoffrey

    guytaur

    remember the media stunt – dropping out of minority govt early this year – food to libs, abbott boasted about it in parliament, major arrow to destabilise gillard and provoke leadership

  12. Scarpat

    slightly sexy men that make him uncomfortable

    I thought that Abbott had moved on from being ‘uncomfortable’ to being ‘conflicted’…

  13. leon

    Was Annabel hot enough for Tony tonight? She’s a bit old for him isn’t she?

  14. Darren Laver

    [geoffrey

    You cannot blame Greens for ALP problems]

    Oh yes we can!

  15. kezza2

    Fran

    should’ve read your tweets instead of wasting my time with Kitchen Cabinet.

    Much more illuminating 🙂

  16. AussieAchmed

    If Abbott becomes PM on Saturday he deserves as much respect as he showed to PMJG

  17. J341983

    …long story short, no postal votes have been opened, let alone counted.

  18. guytaur

    geoffrey

    Your argument does not hold water. Its time you looked at ALP behaviour and not blame Greens for ALP behaviour.

    No more to say on matter until you can accept that reality.

    Greebs had nothing to do with Gillard dumping Rudd who dumped Gillard as PM in turn.

    Voters reacted and votes reflect that. Accept that reality.

  19. guytaur

    oops Greens not Greebs

  20. Fran Barlow

    geoffrey:

    [… the spectre of greens and liberal defeating an environmental bill will never be forgotten.]

    It wasn’t an environmental bill. It was a political wedge and polluter pay day masquerading as an environmental bill. It was worse than useless. Recall that the failure of the European scheme is often cited against action on climate.

    There was no way we were accepting that — and the ALP counted on it in their desire to split the Libs and take all the “credit” for action on climate change.

  21. Dee

    Ohhhhhh, Lateline saying they were not aware Corbet was a long time member of the Liberal party.

  22. Vernula Publicus

    The number of postal votes the AEC is reporting against parties is not the number of votes for each party. Rather it is the number of people who chose to come though a particular party to request a postal vote. The votes themselves are not counted until Election Day.

    This is a peculiar part of our electoral system where parties an write to people and offer to help them get a postal vote

  23. bemused

    Player One@1693


    Tell someone who cares.


    Hey bemused, a word of advice …

    When you are trying to demonstrate how much you don’t care, it’s probably best not to resort to your usual idiotic tactic of re-posting the original post in it’s entirety, just so you can add some pathetic and lame insult at the end.

    This just gives everyone the opportunity to re-read the original post, and also see just how much it seems to annoy you.

    Hahahaha… moron!
    You just showed you don’t know about the ‘quick quote’ function of cccp which is what I, and others, use to quote what we are responding to.

    It saves a lot of scrolling back and gives my comment context.

    I sometimes edit the original to save space but, with a rant like kezza’s, it is best to leave it all there to be seen in it’s full craziness.

  24. confessions

    [If Abbott becomes PM on Saturday he deserves as much respect as he showed to PMJG]

    Hear hear! That’s my attitude as well.

  25. Player One

    [ Your claim seems to be that if someone rejects one of these premises, then they are cherry-picking the science, since 60% of scientists agree with the statements. ]

    Actually, if only 60% of scientists agree with each of the statements, the chances of a scientist agreeing with all of the statements could be as low as 12%

    So you are correct – after asking people in a class of average size to sit down as soon as they disagree with one of the statements, you would expect only a handful to be standing at the end – even if they were all scientists.

    I fail to see how this is a sensible argument for or against science.

    It is, however, a good argument for the nonsensical use you can make of statistics.

  26. alias

    What’s the betting Abbott and co have given The Australian and Daily Telegraph their figures on an embargoed basis, so they can set the day’s agenda with a rose-coloured glasses and utterly distorted view of these crucial numbers.

  27. River

    [quote]10.If Abbott becomes PM on Saturday he deserves as much respect as he showed to PMJG[/quote]

    And Rudd? Does he deserve as much respect as he showed PMJG?

  28. Diogenes

    The AEC postal votes are linked on that catallaxy post and I just downloaded them and the numbers are correct. They just counted how many postal votes applications processed from each party. It’s the PVA applications link below.

    The prepolls are counted but you don’t know who they voted for.

    http://www.aec.gov.au/election/statistics.htm

  29. Hash Convicts

    AussieAchmed

    If Abbott becomes PM on Saturday he deserves as much respect as he showed to PMJG
    ————–

    Gillard got the respect she deserved. None.

  30. bemused

    kezza2@1699

    bemused


    Yeah, right. Go for it.

    Tell someone who cares.


    Epitomises the attitude to long-term Laborites. who have worked for the party for over 30 years, from the Griffin Groupies.

    Okay, I’ve called the candidate and told him I won’t be handing out HTV cards on Saturday.

    He understood completely. Said Rudd had run the worst campaign ever.

    Hope you’re happy.

    As if I can influence what you do or do not do.

    Follow your voices.

  31. This little black duck

    alias@1720

    What’s the betting Abbott and co have given The Australian and Daily Telegraph their figures on an embargoed basis, so they can set the day’s agenda with a rose-coloured glasses and utterly distorted view of these crucial numbers.

    Bar the entire field.

  32. gloryconsequence

    It’s pretty obvious what will happen. There will be a Labor ‘saga’ – either new or rehashed – that will break at the same time as the Liberal costings are announced.

  33. guytaur

    So 90 minutes away from costings release for LNP.

    Those media not given the embargoed copies (should have been broken) will be more negative because they know others got an easy ride,

  34. davidwh

    Dio not sure what that means in the context of the election overall however it is a material change.

  35. Edward StJohn

    Only 67 hours to the end. At the going down of the Sun we shall remember them.

  36. Diogenes

    P1

    [I fail to see how this is a sensible argument for or against science.

    It is, however, a good argument for the nonsensical use you can make of statistics.]

    It’s really just a commentary on poorly worded statements.

  37. zoidlord

    @River/1721

    Turnbull got no respect?

    @Hash Convicts/1723

    Funny that, I don’t think Turnbull did either.

  38. Carey Moore

    So, I have scribbled together a preliminary prediction (will revise on Friday night but I am mostly comfortable with it). I am not sure I want to share it. It will upset a few of you.

  39. Diogenes

    VP

    [The number of postal votes the AEC is reporting against parties is not the number of votes for each party. Rather it is the number of people who chose to come though a particular party to request a postal vote. The votes themselves are not counted until Election Day.

    This is a peculiar part of our electoral system where parties an write to people and offer to help them get a postal vote]

    So it could reflect the Libs being more aggressive in assisting getting postal votes in. Although that doesn’t really explain why Labor would be sending in less than in 2010.

  40. confessions

    [There will be a Labor ‘saga’ – either new or rehashed – that will break at the same time as the Liberal costings are announced.]

    Pretty much.

  41. Player One

    bemused@1717

    Player One@1693

    Hahahaha… moron!
    You just showed you don’t know about the ‘quick quote’ function of cccp which is what I, and others, use to quote what we are responding to.

    As usual, bemused you are completely wrong, and a fool to boot.

    I also use cccp. I just edit my responses out of politeness to others.

  42. davidwh

    Go for it Carey, be brave.

  43. confessions

    Carey:

    I’d be interested in hearing it.

    Just ignore the hyperventilators.

  44. Dee

    glory

    Shocking isn’t it?

    The media are sooooo predictable.

    People are too busy to notice what is actually happening in Australia.

  45. J341983

    CM – I’m assuming massive ALP loss.. I agree with the loss part, just not massive 😛

  46. zoidlord

    @GC/1726

    @Confessions/1734

    I think you guys are helping to create that scenario now.

  47. River

    I wonder how many people will have voted early by election day?

    A few days ago we were rubbishing predictions that more than 3 million people will vote early, but we’re not far away from that number now.

  48. bemused

    Diogenes@1722

    The AEC postal votes are linked on that catallaxy post and I just downloaded them and the numbers are correct. They just counted how many postal votes applications processed from each party. It’s the PVA applications link below.

    The prepolls are counted but you don’t know who they voted for.

    http://www.aec.gov.au/election/statistics.htm

    Where do you get that from?

    I downloaded their csv file for pre-polls and it only shows the total votes cast at each location on each day.

    And what is the count of postal vote application from each party?

    Parties can send a postal vote application to people, but the voter has to complete and apply themselves. Parties cannot do it on their behalf.

    In my opinion the whole article is bullshit.

  49. J341983

    It’ll be over 2.5 million by COB Friday…

  50. lefty e

    As I said, there’ll be a clear stench if illegitimacy over Abbott given the scandalous boosterism of corrupt media figures like Murdoch.

    Now they censor ads that are critical of him.

    The installed man. Murdoch’s muppet. What’s the price Tony?

    And yes: sane treatment as he gave JG.

    dump the chump!

  51. confessions

    Sure zoidlord, because anonymous commenters on a blog have such sway over the mainstream political commentariat.

  52. AussieAchmed

    note last para

    On election night

    The counting of votes is known as the scrutiny. The scrutiny commences on election night in each polling place after 6pm when the polling place has closed. Both ordinary ballot papers and pre-poll ballot papers completed by voters within their division are counted on election night. The scrutiny is usually observed by scrutineers nominated by the candidates.

    When a House of Representatives election and a Senate election are held on the same day, the House of Representatives ballot papers are counted first. If a referendum is also held on the same day, the referendum ballot papers are counted after those of the election.

    Polling officials are required to complete four main tasks after the polling places have closed. They are required to:
    •count the first preferences on the House of Representatives ballot papers
    •conduct a two-candidate-preferred count of the House of Representatives ballot papers
    •count the first preferences on the Senate ballot papers
    •count and sort any declaration vote envelopes received during the day (these remain unopened).

    The first preference results for House of Representatives ballot papers are tabulated and phoned through to the Divisional Returning Officer, along with the number of informal votes. The Divisional Returning Officer enters the results for each polling place into the AEC’s national computerised election management system. These results are electronically fed to the Virtual Tally Room on the AEC website and directly to some media.

    Polling officials then conduct an indicative distribution of preferences (a two-candidate-preferred count for the House of Representatives) between the two previously identified leading candidates to give an indication of the likely outcome of the poll in that division.

    The first preference votes on the Senate ballot papers – above and below-the-line – are then counted, phoned through to the Divisional Returning Officer and entered into the election management system.

    Declaration envelopes containing absent votes, pre-poll declaration votes (i.e. those pre-poll votes cast outside an elector’s division), postal votes and provisional votes are not included in the count until after polling day.

  53. confessions

    [What’s the price Tony?]

    He wouldn’t sell his arse to the independents 3 years ago because he was saving it for Rupert.

  54. Player One

    [ dump the chump! ]

    I like it! Which side are we applying this to?

  55. Dee

    Jones is giving me the absolute shits!

    He is badgering!

  56. This little black duck

    ESJ,

    Got your security blanket handy? Careful it doesn’t get soaked!

    You really don’t do Grima very well. Leave it to the experts from your place.

  57. pedant

    Diogenes @ 1678: Re those AEC postal vote receipt figures: if you look at the seat by seat breakdown on the AEC website, it’s pretty clear that the ALP is running a targeted postal vote operation in a limited number of seats, whereas the LNP seems to have take more of a blanket approach. And another factor is that about 380,000 people have applied directly to the AEC using the new online postal vote application facility. So the macro figures probably don’t mean much.

  58. davidwh

    Bemused that file does show a break-up by political party.

  59. Player One

    [ He wouldn’t sell his arse to the independents 3 years ago because he was saving it for Rupert. ]

    Virginity is an opposition leader’s greatest gift …

  60. J341983

    Jones really is an absolute tool… he’s ruined Q&A… please Virginia Trioli!!!

  61. Hash Convicts

    The following is zoidlord responding to a question about sustainable bandwidth output by servers outside of Australia when they are sending data to 1000s of users on 100MB/sec connections, and what servers are capable of doing this. The comparison of zoidlords response would be like saying 1000 adsl users could all connect to 5 adsl users and all 1000 adsl users would have a maximum sustained download speed.

    Hash Convicts
    Posted Tuesday, September 3, 2013 at 11:28 pm | Permalink
    So again, what server outside of AU will output to 1000s of customers downloading at 100MB/sec and sustain this under load?
    Should be easy to answer? Unless of course….
    The response….

    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, September 3, 2013 at 11:33 pm | Permalink
    @Hash Convicts/1364
    Bittorrent, Video, Cloud Computing, Telehealth…
    Your excuse is that, we shouldn’t build it, that’s like saying we shouldn’t have kept Telstra, so sell it.
    Yet, a few years later, we now want to build it, but your guys, want FTTN which, under law, requires compensation.
    Unless you get Telstra to build it.

    So here is zoidlord claiming that NO ONE uses Rapidshare, only to claim a few posts later his friend uses it, however he claims his friend uses a Rapidshare program which allows him to host a server, people do not host servers with Rapidshare, they pay for hosting. Does this guy ever keep track of his own bs?

    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, September 3, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink
    Oh dear.
    And nobody uses Rapidshare etc, because most people use bittorrent and usenet.

    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 12:13 am | Permalink
    You have other software for Rapidshare etc that can make use of your connection (I have friend on 100Mbps cable that does it).

  62. Rossmore

    I voted early today. No queue. No questions as to why. Not surprised more people are voting early… At the last election I queued for an hour. Better things to do on a Saturday….

  63. paaptsef

    has the freaky Noddy thing also been banned from Aus TV?

  64. Diogenes

    bemused

    Download the postal votes Excel file. At the top, it says the origin of the postal application vote.

    They are either GPV (whatever that is), AEC (Online), AEC (Paper) or the different parties.

  65. Hash Convicts

    Ahh! more to come. 😀

  66. Vernula Publicus

    Diogenes

    Do we know what the AEC issued postal vote # was last time

    Hoping that it is way up and it is just that ALP decided to let people go though AEC rather than party (hoping as I said)

    In any case, I always get the LNP to help with my postal vote as it wastes their time

  67. bemused

    davidwh@1752

    Bemused that file does show a break-up by political party.

    Which file?
    How can it if the votes are not counted?

  68. J341983

    I enjoy the process of the Sat election… I don’t get why people would vote early unless they physically couldn’t…

  69. Mod Lib

    [In any case, I always get the LNP to help with my postal vote as it wastes their time]

    How do you know they don’t open it and “accidentally” lose it if you vote the wrong way? :devil:

  70. Vernula Publicus

    Bemused

    If you download the file below the one you downloaded it has the postal vote figures and in it he AEC has CMOS for the parties

  71. Dee

    Jones!
    😡
    All out attack!

  72. Diogenes

    pedant

    [Re those AEC postal vote receipt figures: if you look at the seat by seat breakdown on the AEC website, it’s pretty clear that the ALP is running a targeted postal vote operation in a limited number of seats, whereas the LNP seems to have take more of a blanket approach. And another factor is that about 380,000 people have applied directly to the AEC using the new online postal vote application facility. So the macro figures probably don’t mean much.]

    Thanks. It might then reflect the ALP conserving money in safe seats. I didn’t compare the numbers for each seat to last time.

  73. Mod Lib

    [How can it if the votes are not counted?]

    It just shows how many postal votes went through the Coalition (400k) versus the ALP (160k).

    It doesn’t show who the folks voted for. However, if you asked the LNP for a postal vote form, you probably vote LNP.

  74. Kinkajou

    are there costings yet? or will they be released in good time for the election?

  75. zoidlord

    @Hash Convicts/1755

    What I am saying is that you were claiming that you couldn’t use the full potential of the connection, I am suggesting otherwise.

    So it is you that claiming things.

  76. bemused

    Diogenes@1758

    bemused

    Download the postal votes Excel file. At the top, it says the origin of the postal application vote.

    They are either GPV (whatever that is), AEC (Online), AEC (Paper) or the different parties.

    Closed that site now but read 1760 to see how little that means.

  77. confessions

    Dee:

    Jones really is an awful interviewer.

  78. guytaur

    Kink

    No release until after Midnight when electronic blackout occurs

  79. davidwh

    Bemused the political party is shown as who lodged the vote.

  80. guytaur

    Dee and Confessions

    Yes it would be an interesting debate with Kerry O Brien quality moderation.

  81. davidwh

    It must mean something as Swannie has managed to lodge over 3,000 🙂

  82. pedant

    bemused @ 1761: Where someone has sent a postal vote application received from a party back to that party, and the party then passes it on to the AEC, the AEC records it as having come through that particular party. That’s what the spreadsheet shows. That’s why there are very few coming from the Greens, since they don’t run targeted postal vote operations. But even where the parties haven’t bothered to mail out application forms, sometimes people will bring them in to the candidate’s office, and they then get passed on to the AEC. That’s probably why some seats are showing single figure returns from a major party.

  83. Vernula Publicus

    The AEC website FAQ makes it clear political parties can send applications for postal vote to people, and people can send them back to the party, which is then obliged to lodge them

    http://aec.gov.au/FAQs/Voting_Australia.htm#party-pva

  84. Dee

    Confessions

    Jones asks a question then won’t allow an answer.

    All soft on Hunt!

  85. zoidlord

    @Confessions/1771

    I think Kerry O’Brien (?) was better especially when back in the day of John Hewston vs Paul Keating.

  86. bluepill

    I have completed my penultimate analysis of the marginal seat betting market before the 2013 election (I will complete the last one late Friday night). Some shifts have certainly been evident.

    Far from the potential Gillard blood bath, Kevin managed a furniture-saving effort during the middle weeks of the election which appears to have eroded sharply since the 20th of August.

    This is in contrast to the most recent TPP polls, particularly with the interesting and insightful comments from William on the wild cards presented by both Katter and Palmer parties and some surprisingly consistent polling on these. Both parties are showing self-reported advantage to the ALP in preferences, which would suggest a tighter TPP than those outfits still using preference allocations from the last election.

    Here are the results:

    Coalition seats: 73+ 24 +2 = 99
    ALP seats: 72 -24 +1 = 49
    Wilkie: 1
    Katter: 1

    Now, I have been very supportive of the Margin Seat Betting Market as a predictor of election outcome for 6 elections now. I must admit, I am finding these figures a little hard to believe and can’t really give a plausible reason for the shift at this stage.

    It appears that Kevin Rudd has gained some polling ground over the last week, (would you concur, William?), so I can’t really understand the number of seats that seem to have fallen on this market. One factor that I can see is that 7 of these seats that have changed to the coalition were within 8% in terms of implied probability on the 20th of August.

    So, this could be the litmus test for the Margin Seat Betting Market as a predictor of electoral outcomes or a large plate of raw eggs for my face here!

    So, as it stands, the MSBM is currently predicting a technical landslide to the coalition, however unlikely that may seem from recent polling results.

    If a week is a long time in politics, then the last three days before an election is an eon.

    let me put my helmet on before you pollbludgers throw your bricks….:)

  87. Kinkajou

    So next two days press AWU Slipper Thompson Obeid Pink batts Boats…have I forgotten any?

  88. guytaur

    “@MayorDarcy: 10 mins into interview Tony Jones has failed to ask Greg Hunt a Q about having this week walked away from 5% emissions reduction #lateline”

  89. Dee

    Agh!

    At last Direct Action!

    Oh, Jones so obliging to Hunt!

  90. confessions

    [Jones asks a question then won’t allow an answer.]

    Jones asks AND answers the questions!

  91. Thomas. Paine.

    One of the Realtech questions was do you think a govt should stick to its promises or ensure they get a surplus and dump promises.

    I said must keep promises…put the pressure on Abbott to find money to pay for his doubling of defence spending and other such unbelievable statements.

  92. J341983

    Actually ML… no

    A friend of mine who lives in Eden-Monaro… she’s not voting Liberal, but she said ‘eh, they offered me a postal vote, saves me having to do anything’… I’m not saying it’s not universal experience at all – but if the ALP is targeting their PV operation and the LNP aren’t…

    Best not to read too much into it.

  93. guytaur

    bluepill

    You have just shown how one or two people with a lot of money can effect a betting market. Reliability depends on judgement.

  94. Thomas. Paine.

    So when they interview Abbott one day in the future in how come he kept none of his election promises…he will say that he only said those things and didn’t write them down and that he already told people that when he speaks he is lying…only when he writes things down might he being honest.

    And Tony Jones will go… ‘fair enough then’ …next question

  95. confessions

    [Tony Abbott has vowed that if he loses this week’s election he will step down as Opposition Leader.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/tony-abbott-prepared-to-step-aside-if-election-day-cooks-up-a-losing-result-20130904-2t5mz.html#ixzz2dveDFAwS ]

    And in other news, the sun will rise tomorrow.

  96. Mod Lib

    The seat by seat is interesting, actually!

    Coalition twice as many postals as ALP (or more) in the following as examples:
    Eden-Monaro
    Greenway
    Grayndler
    Kingsford-Smith
    Lindsay
    Warier
    Griffith
    Plus every Tassie seat!

  97. Player One

    [ The following is zoidlord responding to a question about sustainable bandwidth output by servers outside of Australia when they are sending data to 1000s of users on 100MB/sec connections, and what servers are capable of doing this. ]

    HashConvicts, all you are doing is demonstrating your ignorance of the internet. Proxy servers and caching are fairly well-known technique for reducing latency and increasing apparent bandwidth across international links, and these are especially suitable for high-bandwidth but essentially static content such as video.

    Basically, if 1000 users in Australia are all accessing the same streaming video feed from the US, only one copy ever needs to actually be fetched from the US. It is cached on a local server and can then be fed at high speed to as many local recipients as necessary … provided you have an NBN locally, of course.

  98. Dee

    That was pitiful!

    Jones spent the majority of the interview, interviewing himself.

  99. Mod Lib

    There are 1092 postals to the Liberals in Qld (as distinct from the LNP)!

    Is there still a Liberal Party in Qld?

  100. bluepill

    Guytaur

    I accept your point but if that is the case, why have MSBMs got a better record of predicting the final result of an election?

    If the implied odds were ‘bogus’ or ‘plumped’ as you seem to suggest, then how does the result fall in line with predictions?

  101. Thomas. Paine.

    Got a postal vote form from the CLP for my 90 year old mother in law…. returned it direct to AEC.

    Pretty good idea how she will vote since she don’t speak English…and always asks us to tell her who to vote for…

  102. Carey Moore

    Here goes:

    National 2PP: 53.6-46.4 to Coalition

    National Seat Count

    Coalition: 94
    Labor: 54
    Other: 2 (Katter & Wilkie)

    Seats Changing hands (from Labor to Coalition, unless otherwise specified.)

    NSW

    Greenway
    Robertson
    Lindsay
    Banks
    Reid
    Page
    Eden-Monaro
    Parramatta
    Dobell (from Other to Coalition)
    New England (from Other to Coalition)
    Lyne (from Other to Coalition)

    Vic

    Corangamite
    LaTrobe
    Deakin
    Melbourne (Greens to Labor)

    QLD

    Moreton
    Petrie
    Fisher (from Other to Coalition)

    WA

    No change

    SA

    Hindmarsh

    Tas

    Bass
    Braddon
    Lyons

    NT

    Lingiari

    ACT

    No change

  103. Player One

    [ Tony Abbott has vowed that if he loses this week’s election he will step down as Opposition Leader. ]

    Actually, he will step down as Opposition Leader whether he wins or loses.

  104. Mod Lib

    I thought you were giving Hindmarsh to ALP, Carey?

  105. mexicanbeemer

    Regarding postal votes i thought there was always a telly of postal applications from political parties.

    It is only a rough guide as to how the pre-polls will go.

    I know someone that used an application from one party but didn’t vote for them.

  106. bluepill

    Carey.. sorry I might have missed a thread.. what are the results you just posted, they look interesting..

  107. guytaur

    bluepill

    I don’t buy the myth that betting markets are better than polls. Precisely for reason I mentioned. Getting close an election or three is not a scientific method of measurement

  108. Player One

    Kinkajou@1781

    So next two days press AWU Slipper Thompson Obeid Pink batts Boats…have I forgotten any?

    “Hot” daughters?

  109. mexicanbeemer

    The Kitchen Cabinet can be okay, i couldn’t say that is is bias one way or another.

    Surely Crabb isn’t 200k for the hosting role.

  110. bemused

    davidwh@1773

    Bemused the political party is shown as who lodged the vote.

    I have not worked on processing postal vote applications, but as far as I am aware, the voter completes the ballot and returns it by post to the AEC.

    I am indeed curious about what has been raised.

  111. J341983

    I disagree about quite a few of those seats Carey… but we’ll just have to see how it lies on Sunday morning.

  112. Thomas. Paine.

    Tony Jones ruins what could be a good program. The prick never shuts his gob, and will interrupt if he thinks the person is going to say something that goes against his purpose on the night. Usually that is making sure labor types don’t get clear air.

  113. bluepill

    Mod Lib

    Hindmarsh is line ball. Currently held by the ALP.. I have it holding at this stage on the MSBM.

  114. mexicanbeemer

    ModLib

    There would be some seats that only have one party sending out postal applications.

  115. confessions

    [WA

    No change]

    What about O’Connor?

  116. Thomas. Paine.

    God, for a Maxine McKew type.

  117. confessions

    [Actually, he will step down as Opposition Leader whether he wins or loses.]

    Exactly.

  118. Carey Moore

    [Carey.. sorry I might have missed a thread.. what are the results you just posted, they look interesting..]

    They’re my own preliminary prediction. I will revise on Friday evening, if necessary but I am somewhat confident with them.

  119. Mod Lib

    The Coalition (CLP, LP, NP, LNP) beats the ALP in postals in 124/150 seats.

    These are the seats where the ALP is winning the postals (and by how much):
    NT Lingiari 17
    SA Makin 37
    QLD Moreton 376
    SA Wakefield 449
    QLD Lilley 526
    QLD Blair 839
    SA Port Adelaide 887
    VIC Holt 960
    VIC Isaacs 1001
    NSW McMahon 1103
    VIC Jagajaga 1159
    NSW Watson 1167
    VIC Ballarat 1215
    NSW Fowler 1241
    NSW Chifley 1251
    VIC Maribyrnong 1273
    NSW Page 1364
    VIC Gorton 1562
    NSW Charlton 1587
    NSW Hunter 1596
    VIC Calwell 1639
    NSW Throsby 1666
    NSW Shortland 1807
    SA Kingston 1908
    SA Adelaide 2613
    QLD Oxley 2658

  120. Vernula Publicus

    Bemused

    Read the link to the AEC FAQI provided above – it clearly statss political parties can provide pv applications AND receive them back – that is, give an envelope with their address not themAEC

    They then have a legal obligation to pass to the AEC

  121. sprocket_

    [Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 3m
    On the polling numbers I’ve just seen, it’s unlikely there WON’T be a minor party senator from Qld. Senator Lazarus? Very possibly.]

    and just a comment on Facebook, not a lotta love there for Tony Abbott. Serious campaigning going on with the younger demographic, ALP with Green prefs in a landslide from what I’ve seen.

  122. Carey Moore

    [I thought you were giving Hindmarsh to ALP, Carey?]

    I was and the data I’ve been looking at points to it currently but my gut tells me it’s on the cusp of flipping to a Coalition favourite (if not already).

  123. J341983

    My predictions will be finalised on Friday afternoon – but they’re not as ‘pessimistic’ for the ALP as yours.

  124. Mod Lib

    Well, I reckon you are pretty much on the mark Carey!

  125. geoffrey

    Fran b thanks and good luck however the collective pronouncing pseudo partisan voice ‘we’ of last and some earlier emails tupifies why I at least left this so called grass roots party and will not return. It has had toxic effect

  126. Carey Moore

    I will confess the two seats that were virtually a coin flip were Hindmarsh and Lilley. In my current prediction, I see Hindmarsh being the most marginal Labor seat and Lilley the most marginal Coalition one.

    Either or both could change by Friday (at least one probably will)

  127. sprocket_

    [Bert Evatt ‏@DocEvatt 2m
    Where have you gone Joe De Bruyn? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you. #notreally #auspol #ausvotes]

  128. J341983

    …I mean, they’re not in any way good, lol.

  129. Mod Lib

    …although I still reckon Bandt wins

  130. mexicanbeemer

    ModLib

    There are some interesting seats not on that list with several safe ALP seats not listed.

    Do we think the ALP will lose any of those.

  131. Carey Moore

    [I see Hindmarsh being the most marginal Labor seat and Lilley the most marginal Coalition one.]

    Other way round, I meant.

  132. J341983

    CM – I think that’s plausible…

  133. guytaur

    This could be a good sign. IF Assad falls Russia will probably help for him to see justice over WMD to avoid more military action in Syria. That way new government may not be hostile to Russia

    “@BrahimiUN: According to Russian Ambassador in Damascus, Asma al-Assad, the President’s wife, has fled to Russia with two sons.”

  134. Mod Lib

    I am not making anything much of the data at all, other than it being interesting, and that I would much prefer to have twice as many postal votes coming from my side than the opposite side.

    It all depends on past experience, individual seats, how much money each party is spending in that seat and the seat demographics (are there lots of folks on big salaries who are always away on the weekend) etc etc.

    I just don’t remember the Libs having a huge lead on postals in the past, usually it is the incumbent side with the postal lead from my memory…

  135. Independently Thinking

    In SA I can report the ALP Left are very pessimistic about hanging onto Hindmarsh, and Labor Right are saying it is tight as in Adelaide, where Kate Ellis is in a cliffhanger finish with Liberal Carmen Garcia. No other changes in SA.
    My guess is that the Libs will win a lot of marginals by a little, but some safe ALP seats may stay OK so Libs will have an inflated majority in HoR.

  136. bluepill

    Guytaur

    Sure, you have turned to belief, now and I understand your scepticism. I was once but realise that there are clear reasons why the MSBM (let’s be clear: and ONLY this betting market, not the rest) are excellent predictors of outcomes.

    In 2010 my modelling showed not only the hung parliament (scoffed regularly here) but the seat fall within a single seat. Not just for the winner but ALP: LNP:GRN:KAT:TWI:ROA

    In 2011, the modelling was within 2 seats of the 89 seat parliament for QLD. No other measure achieved these. Other data is not on hand but Rudd’s in 2007 was within 5 seats but I was only using Sportingbet at that stage, because (i think) it was the only one at the time with all seats open.

    You can believe what you want but I am continuing to watch the development of this measure. Polling organisations are not currently particularly good at predicting the seat outcome because they usually rely on the ‘blunt instrument’ of TPP polls with the Mackerras Pendulum and the fundamental assumption of uniform swings is notoriously inaccurate.

    By contrast, Margin seat polling still generally has much smaller samples and are done less frequently, so even a cumulative poll has issues (date of poll compared to election day and larger MOEs). In fact an MOE of even 2% on accumulated samples is, often, higher than the margin for the closest 15 seats!! Not a very reliable measure, one would have thought.

  137. Simon Baker

    Guytaur – The betting markets simply follow the polls, it is no coincidence the last time the betting markets were clearly wrong, in 1993, was also the last time the polls were wrong too. In 1998 the polls had Beazley winning the betting markets Howard, but the polls were right in that Beazley won the 2PP it was just Howard won more marginals. If this latest Reachtel is right and the race has tightened (and don’t forget Reachtel has tended to lean slightly to the Coalition) then if further polls tomorrow and Friday also show a tightening, so will the betting markets!

  138. J341983

    FTR – I predicted a hung parliament… granted I was going on demographics and previous elections as much as anything else.

  139. davidwh

    I’m basically a Lib but I’m not as pessimistic as some here so am sticking to my 81/66/3 but wouldn’t be game to try and guess individual seats particularly in QLD. I’m pretty confidant Corangamite will change hand though 🙂

  140. mexicanbeemer

    Mod Lib

    I have always presumed that the sitting MP had an advantage which is why i am surprised that seats like Wills, Hotham, Scullin are not on the list

  141. bluepill

    Carey

    Wow, so do you really think that the coalition could realistically be in line for over 95 seats??

    I still have trouble believing the MSBM I compiled this evening..

  142. pedant

    The problem with all of this postal vote campaigning is that the parties are in an arms race: it’s not at all clear that it makes a lot of difference to the outcome, but neither of them wants to risk disarming unilaterally. In the ACT, there’s now a legal requirement that postal vote applications be returned directly to the Electoral Commission there, and that’s stopped the whole silly business dead in its tracks. In all probability there’s been a high take up of the online application system among younger more computer savvy people, who everyone seems to assume are ALP voters

  143. Carey Moore

    [Wow, so do you really think that the coalition could realistically be in line for over 95 seats??]

    Absolutely. We are in 1996 mode right now. And, while a long shot, it could spread out to 1975 mode – but I doubt it.

  144. paaptsef

    is it true you can make money from a recession if you invest in the right sort of stuff?

  145. mexicanbeemer

    paaptsef

    Yes but it is a risky strategy

  146. Carey Moore

    I think Adelaide is a moderate chance of flipping but I say it’s an outside chance. Likewise with Wakefield. But, I know it’s conservative but I think Hindmarsh will be the only one to fall. The SA ALP have ran an exceptional local campaign.

  147. J341983

    davidwh – my final LNP number is around yours with room for 2-4 more.

  148. guytaur

    pedant

    The internet people being young and voting goes to two things. Assumptions of age of internet users. Factcheck would probably say mostly true.

    As well as internet users more likely to support NBN and nor fraud band

  149. bluepill

    Simon
    [The betting markets simply follow the polls]

    Peter says this too but it is not a generalisation that can be made easily nor confirmed. You can’t know what a punter makes a decision on.

    Furthermore “the betting market” is not a single market any more than the stock market is a single company.

    The ‘mug market” is no better than coin tossing (BTW neither are the biggest polling outfits on TPP measures).

    However, the MSBM is a completely different beast and I have seen no study at all worldwide to suggest that anyone has shown a causal relationship between opinion polls and wager placing behaviour at elections..

  150. paaptsef

    ok thanks MB i might have a look at it.

  151. confessions

    Carey:

    You’ve got no change in WA. Does this mean you think Labor will hold Brand and the Nats will hold O’Connor?

  152. J341983

    Frankly – this election is a going to be a clusterfuck… the swings will all over the place, preferences are very, VERY unpredictable. That includes quite a few variables that were not in play in 2010…

    I could easily be wrong… easily. But equally, the ways things are going, a LOT of people could be.

  153. davidwh

    J34 we will sink or swim together then 😉

  154. Carey Moore

    [You’ve got no change in WA. Does this mean you think Labor will hold Brand and the Nats will hold O’Connor?]

    I class Crook as Coalition because he sits with them but I’ll add that I think the Libs will get that seat back.

    As for Brand, like Hindmarsh and Lilley, it was a close call for me so I erred on the side of caution and went with the status quo but, like Lilley, if I feel the mood’s shifting further to the Coalition, it’ll be one of the first to fall.

  155. paaptsef

    i guess when you think about it, Australia has been a great place for recession hit europeans to invest their money in recent years. Don’t know if we have a safe haven to run to though.

  156. bluepill

    Yes, I think the Palmer/Katter issue is indeed a wildcard.

    Greens vote likely to slump after last time’s possible peak, but these two minors have far more support than I would have expected.

    The coalition vote doesn’t appear to be dented a lot by their influence in primaries but I suspect a lot of action splitting votes for the coalition and diverting more to the ALP than currently evident in the polls.

  157. guytaur

    Paper reporting papers segment That Diaz is to be dumped even if Parliamentarian. Quickly if there is indeed a DD

  158. confessions

    Don’t know what happened to this Reachtel.

  159. zoidlord

    @guytaur/1855

    But not before election day Saturday?

    What a chicken.

  160. confessions

    Carey:

    Agree with you re O’Connor.

  161. guytaur

    confessions

    7 will release for 6 pm bulletin tomorrow

  162. confessions

    guytaur:

    But the current one came out overnight.

  163. Thomas. Paine.

    I did say Rudd should have been holding a few press conferences re Newscorpse ridiculous headlines that in the end Get Up produced an ad.

    The idea of some old dude, head of some proven corrupt newspapers trying to hoodwink Australians would have made some people think. Opportunity missed.

    Likewise a saturation message that Abbott is going to take money from retirees income.

    All I see however is saturation Liberal ads everywhere. So I gather ALP have no money.

  164. zoidlord

    @guytaur/1859

    Wouldn’t we normally see it before hand?

    Via GhostWhoVotes or James J ?

  165. guytaur

    confessions

    Yes but holding off. Probably so can have something besides costings to report

  166. Simon Baker

    Bluepill – Generally, the poll leader leads the betting that is clear, and has been in every recent Australian election with the exception of 1993 and 1998, in the last US election Obama led on Intrade in the last UK election Cameron led at the bookies etc In the German election later this month Merkel’s comfortable poll lead is reflected in the odds 1.07 CDU/CSU (Conservatives) 7.50 SPD (Social Democrats)

  167. davidwh

    Zoidlord 7 has been releasing this week at 6am rather than 6pm so it’s a morning release for now.

  168. Simon Baker

    Carey could Palmer’s party win O’Connor?

  169. zoidlord

    ReachTEL ‏@ReachTEL 5h

    @JillFavero This poll won’t be released as it was privately commissioned. We have other results coming out over the coming days though.

  170. Carey Moore

    YES! Sweet advertising silence is almost upon us!

  171. Marrickville Mauler

    Hmm. Had more intelligent conversations with people at the Sydney Town Hall pre poll today (including some genuine and genuinely funny conversations with Jackie Kelly, sometime Lib MP for Lindsay, handing out next to me, than most of the stuff on PB at the moment.

    I have the advantage and honour of course of working locally for Albo, hated only by tories (you know, for supporting awful things like equal opportunities).

  172. Kevin Bonham

    Working on a rough Bayesian-style (not that I think of myself as “a Bayesian”!) model for using a combination of projected state swings (a la Bludgertrack with individual seats modified for sophomore effects) and seat polls to predict whether seats should be expected to fall in the circumstance that:

    * seat polling projects the seat to fall
    * the seat would not be lost based on the expected state swing to Coalition assuming that swing was uniform

    OR

    * seat polling projects the seat to be retained
    * the seat would be expected to be lost based on the expected state swing to Coalition assuming the swing was uniform

    (Expected state swing may be negative eventually in the cases of Qld and WA).

    In other words, we’re much more likely to take a poll showing 60-40 to Coalition in Lindsay seriously than one showing 60-40 to Coalition in Lalor. But data should not be disregarded entirely, so suppose there was a poll showing 60-40 to Coalition in Lalor, how would we then correctly assess Labor’s chances in that seat?

    Trying to get this sorted by tomorrow night to inform my Friday prediction.

  173. J341983

    But I’d argue Intrade is more sophisticated than anything we have. For example, they had Obama at 60-65% to win in places like Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada… at the same time polling had him tied, slightly ahead or slight behind. If anything, it’s like the stock-market… rather than the betting markets, which is reactive.

  174. paaptsef

    abbott should be honest and say Australia, you have done well, now let me change everything

  175. guytaur

    mauler

    more strength to your arm 🙂

  176. dendrite

    Here’s what I’m currently seeing (and this is NOT my final prediction):

    TPP Coalition 53.3, ALP 46.7

    NSW
    Coalition seats gained (+10): New England (from IND), Lyne (from IND), Lindsay, Banks, Reid, Robertson, Greenway, Dobell (from IND), Werriwa (within 1%), Kingsford Smith (within 1%)

    VIC
    Coalition seats gained (+2): Corangamite, Deakin.
    Labor seats gained: Melbourne (from GRN).
    Independent seats gained: Indi (from LIB).
    (La Trobe within 1%)

    QLD
    Coalition seats gained (+2): Fisher (from IND), Moreton.
    (Petrie within 1%)

    WA
    Libs gain O’Connor from Nats.

    SA
    No change (Hindmarsh within 1%)

    TAS
    Coalition seats gained (+3): Bass, Braddon, Lyons.

    NT
    Coalition seats gained (+1):Lingiari
    (Solomon within 1%)

    Total: ALP 58 Coalition 89 KAP 1 Ind 2

    Most likely ALP pickups, if any: Solomon, Brisbane, Gilmore, Flynn, Macquarie (in rough order of likelihood).

  177. zoidlord

    @paaptsef/1872

    That’s like saying steeling candy from a baby…

    You earn it, not take it by force.

  178. Carey Moore

    [Carey could Palmer’s party win O’Connor?]

    While an upset somewhere wouldn’t upset me, I am going to be cautious and say they won’t have any luck in the House.

    Likewise KAP (Except in Kennedy, of course.)

    When I can be arsed, I will try and make an educated Senate prediction too (although it probably will be prone to a bit of wild guesswork.)

  179. hairy nose

    [Very disappointed with Alberici. She’s one of the ABC’s best interviewers these days.]

    Alberici’s a sellout like Uhlmann, Simkin and many others – they are just doing what Mark Scott orders

  180. Carey Moore

    [While an upset somewhere wouldn’t upset me]

    It wouldn’t surprise me, I meant.

    Jesus, my typing is all over the place tonight. Oh, for an edit button!

  181. confessions

    [Carey could Palmer’s party win O’Connor?]

    Not a chance.

  182. Hash Convicts

    zoidlord

    What I am saying is that you were claiming that you couldn’t use the full potential of the connection, I am suggesting otherwise.

    So it is you that claiming things.
    ———

    People can clearly ready what you have said. If you think that 1000 people on 100MB/sec connections connecting to 5 people hosting servers on 100MB/sec connection is sufficient, then you have no idea what you are talking about, as people can see in what you have written.

  183. guytaur

    What interests me is the Senate. I think its a likely Coalition win in the HOR.

    However a hostile Senate could mean a change in mood of voters big time as they see and feel effects of cuts. A DD could mean Labor back on Treasury benches in a year and a half or so

  184. Hash Convicts

    The following is zoidlord responding to a question about sustainable bandwidth output by servers outside of Australia when they are sending data to 1000s of users on 100MB/sec connections, and what servers are capable of doing this. The comparison of zoidlords response would be like saying 1000 adsl users could all connect to 5 adsl users and all 1000 adsl users would have a maximum sustained download speed.

    Hash Convicts
    Posted Tuesday, September 3, 2013 at 11:28 pm | Permalink
    So again, what server outside of AU will output to 1000s of customers downloading at 100MB/sec and sustain this under load?
    Should be easy to answer? Unless of course….
    The response….

    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, September 3, 2013 at 11:33 pm | Permalink
    @Hash Convicts/1364
    Bittorrent, Video, Cloud Computing, Telehealth…
    Your excuse is that, we shouldn’t build it, that’s like saying we shouldn’t have kept Telstra, so sell it.
    Yet, a few years later, we now want to build it, but your guys, want FTTN which, under law, requires compensation.
    Unless you get Telstra to build it.

    So here is zoidlord claiming that NO ONE uses Rapidshare, only to claim a few posts later his friend uses it, however he claims his friend uses a Rapidshare program which allows him to host a server, people do not host servers with Rapidshare, they pay for hosting. Does this guy ever keep track of his own bs?

    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, September 3, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink
    Oh dear.
    And nobody uses Rapidshare etc, because most people use bittorrent and usenet.
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 12:13 am | Permalink
    You have other software for Rapidshare etc that can make use of your connection (I have friend on 100Mbps cable that does it).

  185. dendrite

    Further to my @1874, Paramatta as ALP retain (within 1%)

  186. Carey Moore

    Interesting prediction dendrite. It certainly is within the realm of realism!

  187. Tom the first and best

    1876

    Palmer will not make any gain in the HoR outside the Gold and Sunshine Coasts (where his base is).

    Katter will not make any gains outside FNQ (unless their is a boil-over in Maranoa).

    It is all about the merger, cuts and preferences.

  188. mexicanbeemer

    MM

    Did Jackie Kelly give you any insight into how she thought the result was looking?

  189. zoidlord

    @Hash Convicts/1880

    You are deliberately confusing the discussion, by talking about hosting, which is not related to the our local connections.

  190. Hash Convicts

    So just for clarity:

    According to your logic zoidlord:

    One persons or/persons hosting 5 servers on 100MB/sec connections over bittorent, will out put enough power to sustain a constant download speed of 100MB/sec (give or take) to 1000 users, without a speed decrease.

  191. hairy nose

    [Tony Jones hosting Lateline Not Alberici

    A spell in the paddock?]

    No – she’s probably at the Libs dinner with her mate Corbett

  192. zoidlord

    @Hash Convicts/1888

    No you started complaining about hosting situation, not local connections.

  193. bluepill

    Palmer may feed a New Green into the QLD senate with current pathways and primary around 5%.

    That will piss a LOT of people off from both ALP & LNP.. let alone Palmer’s voters (the majority therein!)

  194. Simon Baker

    J341983
    Obama consistently led most of the swing state polls, by polling day he also had a small average national popular vote lead too

  195. Hash Convicts

    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    You are deliberately confusing the discussion, by talking about hosting, which is not related to the our local connections.
    ———

    Ahh local connections now? At which point were we talking about a local area network. People can see that Rapidshare was mentioned, you know that Rapidshare are hosted in the Netherlands? Which means (as people can also see) the numerous times I talked about connecting outside of Aus.

  196. guytaur

    bluepill

    Labor would be happy. More chance of hostile Senate and a DD

  197. Simon Baker

    1876.1879,1885 Were Palmer to win the odd seat and it was tight nationally could make things interesting

  198. zoidlord

    @Hash Convicts/1893

    Local Network as in the last mile network.

    Broadband Infrastructure rollouts are there to upgrade the current infrastructure – the last mile.

  199. J341983

    SB – I was watching every…single… poll… during that election… there was a time when the polls, notably after the first debate, were NOT in his favour. But his intrade numbers still held – because it wasn’t just driven by polls.

  200. Hash Convicts

    zoidlord

    No you started complaining about hosting situation, not local connections.
    ——–

    Are you really serious? So dispite people can see this discussion was about bandwidth output ability, and how it doesnt matter what connection you have 100MB/sec or 10/MB sec, if they do NOT have the physical capacity to sustain data transfer rate to 1000 users at 100MB/sec, then it cannot be done.

    In simple terms, if I am on dialup and you are on adsl2, you could not download from me at maximum speed. Please tell me you get this simple concept.

  201. guytaur

    Hash

    I will butt in briefly. Local Mirrors

    As you were

  202. bluepill

    Guytaur

    Good point but surely the ALP would prefer a Katter feed into a third ALP instead of a Green?? 🙂

  203. confessions

    [There are those outside the seat of Macquarie who would think that it’s a fairly quiet seat – most of it is in the Blue Mountains, Vote Compass dubs it the second most left leaning Liberal held seat in the country. There are, however, darker forces at work in the campaign. Louise Markus, the existing Member for the seat, will be in trouble on election day. This is due partially to her living in Riverstone, which is in Greenway, her former electorate – which was redistributed as a Labor seat after the 2007 election. When she won Greenway in the 2004 election, it was a bitterly fought campaign, where Liberal supporters allegedly used the Muslim religion of Labor candidate Ed Husic against him. There are many parochial residents of the Blue Mountains who have not appreciated having a local member who isn’t local. Her campaign, too, has followed along similar western Sydney lines as the campaigns of Lindsay, Greenway and the rest, with Contracts and letters with little detail and local commitments included in them. This provides a problem in a seat with a different socio economic makeup than those seats.]
    http://ausvotes2013.com/2013/09/05/homophobiaaggressionfacebookbattlemacquarie/

    Some very unsavoury reports of Markus, her campaign, and her followers. Markus is the sitting member, so a bit difficult to shove her in the closet with Diaz and others until Sunday.

  204. Hash Convicts

    guytaur

    Hash

    I will butt in briefly. Local Mirrors

    As you were
    ——-
    Of course, but this is negating local mirrors and assuming that (as most people do) connect outside of Aus to recieve their warez.

  205. Roger Miller

    Hash is ranting again. I can feel the spittle from here.

  206. zoidlord

    @Hash Convicts/1898

    Then you go to someone who guarantee’s bandwidth right? It’s called SLA agreements.

  207. guytaur

    bluepill

    As long as numbers are favourable to ALP they will be happy.

  208. Radguy

    ReHash, what is your caper?

    Why do you presume Internet users will use only one server at a time?

    Off ya go. Get some new material.

  209. davidwh

    Zoidlord 1867 I think that ReachTel referred to a private Tasmania poll that is not being released publicaly. Tomorrow morning I think will be a national poll.

  210. confessions

    Perhaps we can have a separate thread for discussion of the finer points of broadband technology?

  211. Tom the first and best

    1891

    Palmer may well get more that 5%. His party is currently polling 7-8% in Qld. It also gets better preference flows than the Greens.

    It is outside Queensland that Palmer is a reasonable possibility to help the Greens. Particularly SA and the ACT.

  212. J341983

    The other thing I’ll note … while exit polling is a pretty new element in our elections, having nearly 30% already having voted … will make those EP numbers almost meaningless

  213. Hash Convicts

    zoidlord

    Then you go to someone who guarantee’s bandwidth right? It’s called SLA agreements.
    ——-

    So which server host do you know, that supplies warez to 1000s of users over sees, that will not buckle under the load of 1000s of users on 100MB/sec?

  214. hairy nose

    [Ohhhhhh, Lateline saying they were not aware Corbet was a long time member of the Liberal party.]

    absolute crap – and if it is true it just shows their utter incompetence. Alberici admitted they had been pursuing him for days to appear – why – he is well known as an arch critic of the Government.

    ABC are trying to cover their arses but their shiny cheeks are on display for everyone to see.

  215. Hash Convicts

    So in short, would not treat 1000s of users on 100MB/sec transfer rate as a massive denial of service attack?

  216. confessions

    Simon:

    I think PUP has a better chance of picking up a lower house seat in Qld than in WA.

    There is saturation Liberal and to a lesser extent, Nationals campaign material here. Aside from the odd TV advert I haven’t seen much PUP stuff.

  217. Roger Miller

    Hash, The internet is big. Really big. and growing all the time. It won’t run out of bits.

  218. Hash Convicts

    Radguy

    ReHash, what is your caper?

    Why do you presume Internet users will use only one server at a time?

    Off ya go. Get some new material.
    ————

    Your kidding? This is one of the biggest issues faced by warez groups and filesharing hosts, it is the reason why they constantly upgrade to deal with the demand. Go take a look at how many times Rapidshare have needed to upgrade then get back to me.

  219. hairy nose

    [Ohhhhhh, Lateline saying they were not aware Corbet was a long time member of the Liberal party.]

    and yet when they were made aware (if they didn’t already which I find hard to believe) they continued to promote the story with no reference to his membership.

    They are spouting lies.

  220. crikey whitey

    For those with access to the Australian, the following and one other ‘exclusive’ by Troy Bramston, have appeared.

    ELECTION 2013
    Coalition savings hit $40bn
    BY:DAVID CROWE, NATIONAL AFFAIRS EDITOR From: The Australian September 05, 2013 12:00AM

    A COALITION government would save about $40 billion over the next four years in a budget plan to be unveiled today in the hope of demolishing Labor’s claim that Tony Abbott’s cuts would tip the economy into recession.

    The plan adds a small number of savings to a list unveiled last week but stops far short of Kevin Rudd’s estimate of $70bn in Coalition cuts, one of the central claims in his campaign against a change of government.

  221. Hash Convicts

    Roger Miller

    Hash, The internet is big. Really big. and growing all the time. It won’t run out of bits.
    ———
    So what your saying is, that any server host that has data demand i.e Fileserve, Hotfile, Megaupload(rip), Youtube do not have issues with data transfer and every single person on the internet can receive data from them 24/7 at full speed?

    I want to live on the internet your on if that is the case. 😀

  222. zoidlord

    @Hash Convicts/1911

    You do research.

    Many companies provide 100Mbps or 1000Mbps connections to their boxes, but it also depends on routing, and the user ratio on that server.

    contact the companies, ask for user ratio on the seed box that your after, connection speeds, routing information between your location and there server you selected etc.

    Basically any information that may effect you getting top speed on the server.

    If you got the money, go for a Business SLA.

    What you have at your home connection really doesn’t matter, it’s the box you connecting too.

  223. Radguy

    Is Hash getting close to a red card now? I hope so. Pretty clear trolling effort.

  224. zoidlord

    @crikey/1919

    Wow are these reporters that dumb?

    Just because $40 billion dollar saving, doesn’t mean they will not hurt the voters.

    Stupid bias media.

  225. J341983

    So that’s an additional $9 billion in savings from last week.

  226. Roger Miller

    and moving the goalposts. Abbott was saying every coalition budget would be in surplus. This is clearly not the case, and undermines the coalitions whole case for being better economic managers.

  227. mexicanbeemer

    Okay so we believe the savings telly is $40 Billion, okay but with all the reviewed that have already been announced as being needed just how can we take this number seriously.

    Regardless whoever wins will need to make large budget cuts if they wish to achieve a surplus anytime soon. Without cuts or tax increase there will not be a surplus in the next parliament regardless who wins.

  228. J341983

    So it’s basically a table with incomings and outgoings…

  229. mexicanbeemer

    Sounds like it.

  230. J341983

    … requires A LOT to have passed the Senate – Tony is going to regret the lines ‘no surprises, no excuses’

  231. New2This

    Are you on the public nipple voidlord?

  232. zoidlord

    @New2This/1930

    lol, I wish.

    I wouldn’t be here if I was, talking to trolls on the internet.

    Or should I say liberal supporters.

  233. Carey Moore

    Okay, I lost it at this:

    [Dan Nolan ‏@dannolan 16m
    fruit of me loins are DTF says future PM to reality tv prisoners]

  234. Kevin Bonham

    Data security fail by GetUp!

    Go to:

    https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/election-2013/where-do-the-parties-stand/where-do-the-parties-stand?referring_service=twitter#accordion-module-content-7755

    Scroll down to the “View the survey response from each party by clicking the links.”

    Apart from the Coalition, which submitted a letter, the rest submitted responses on a form. There is sensitive information which is meant to be blocked out in orange: password, phone number, email address of party official. But on my browser the info displays momentarily before being blotted out – certainly long enough for me to read it all with a few refreshes.

  235. zoidlord

    @Kevin/1933

    Ouch!

  236. CTar1

    poroti

    [In the quickly quickly bomber beauty contest ]

    Big mothers.

  237. crikey whitey

    Zoidlord and all

    I didn’t expect to see anything less than drivel from the oz. I was just hanging about to see if they got first go at the costings.

    Guess they did. Nothing like this on the Age site, as yet.

  238. J341983

    SMH has something … but vague

  239. Simon Baker

    J341983 Although Romney held the national poll lead after the first debate, Obama still held a narrow lead in key states like Ohio which meant he would still win the Electoral College which was why Intrade still had him ahead

  240. William Bowe

    [fruit of me loins are DTF says future PM to reality tv prisoners]

    Department of Treasury and Finance?

  241. zoidlord

    @Crikey/1936

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/government-spending-to-be-slashed/story-fn9qr68y-1226703778840

    This was back in late August, they promised $40 billion in Defense and Health spending…

    Odd that the $40 billion dollars in savings is exact same number….

  242. leon

    Re Corbett on Rudd, the only truthful thing said by a Liberal in the whole campaign.

  243. David Mills

    @Hash (from previous thread!)

    “I don’t dispute the need for 100MB/sec or faster, what I am saying is there no need for it now while there are more important issues in this country to deal with.”

    Typical hand-waving to relegate an important issue to the unimportant. This is key essential infrastructure we’re talking about and any advanced economy without a serious NBN risks massive opportunity costs. Australia’s ranking on the OECD will slip significantly without a real NBN in place sooner rather than later.

    “Internet is a luxury,”

    That’s totally wrong! It’s an absolute, crucial necessity. Ask yourself what would happen to business and banking and international trading if Internet failed for weeks. What would happen to domestic businesses that rely on it? No emails? Seriously?? Are you aware that most of the recent growth in traffic (according to CISCO) is due to automated business processes?? It’s not a luxury any more than the car or electricity is a luxury.

    “my theory about server output vs achievable speed underload is correct, look it up if you wish to understand it.”

    Umm. No it’s not. Multicasting? Broadcasting? Virtual server on a cluster? The only real bottleneck is the pipe and the LNP’s pseudo-NBN does not fatten the pipe enough.

    “There is nothing stopping the Liberal NBN being upgraded,”

    Two answers:

    1. Too little too late. If it were in place now then yes, it’d be fine but to spend about a decade building it ensures that it will be obsolete as far as bandwidth goes before it’s even finished. Also, if the trunk lines feeding nodes are designed assuming relatively low bandwidth for the final run to the premises an upgrade may well mean entire new runs for every part of the NBN so it won’t be a simple node to customers upgrade. We’ll end up building the NBN twice which will cost somewhere about double.

    2. The Freeway Effect (a phenomenon known to road and comms engineers) will engender a plethora of new apps and systems on a real NBN all the sooner sooner the sooner it is built. The power of this effect has been demonstrated recently with the way mobile phone apps went nova once the phones had the capacity to support them. The first countries with FTTP will have an edge and reap the benefits in advance of the latecomers. Technological revolution …

    “but this can be done when the country is out of the mess and debt that it is in.”

    WHAT mess? The US has been in debt for about 170 years running I understand and for much of that time it’s been an economic powerhouse! Debt does not matter so long as growth is maintained and the repayments can be made. A Nobel Prize winning US economist has recently (just days ago) stated that (a) our economy is doing incredibly (enviously) well compared to most other Western economies in a post GFC world, (b) that our debt level is nothing to worry about and (c)that the jobs and expenditure slash-and-burn approach the LNP proposes risks a recession as per the UK and other countries that have tried the austerity “fix”. Right now we still have growth (albeit modest) and unemployment is about 5% and our debt is sustainable. WHAT mess?

    I suggest you stop believing the right-wing storybook and start reading and listening to comms engineers and economists.

    Never thought I’d see the day in Australia when a major political party would become staunchly anti-science. I think Oakeshott’s parting comment about extremists on the fringe becoming mainstream might unfortunately be an accurate assessment of the last few years in Federal politics.

  244. Kevin Bonham

    If anyone’s bored and wants to test my observation in #1933 I’d be interested to know if the same thing happens with other PDF viewers.

    My results so far:

    * Firefox 23 inline PDF viewer: information can be read
    * Nuance PDF viewer: the information flashes but too quickly to read
    * Chrome inline viewer: information loads pre-blotted
    * Internet Explorer: link crashes browser (ha, ha)

    Frank Calabrese advises that on Tracker PDF X-Change Viewer the blotting works.

  245. crikey whitey

    Interesting, Zoidlord.

    Maybe a promise that has been replaced by the more nebulous (don’t think I’m too sure on this) 3% increase on current levels (??)

  246. crikey whitey

    Not that bored yet, Kevin.

  247. Kevin Bonham

    Mark Riley @Riley7News

    Just got latest 7News/ReachTEL national poll taken tonight. Numbers shifting sharply in final days. Which way? Watch @sunriseon7

  248. Tom the first and best

    1943

    It works in Adobe Reader.

    Will you use those contact details to notify the party contacts of the security breach?

  249. lefty e

    Im going:

    LNP 83
    ALP 64
    GRN 1
    KAP 1
    Wilkie 1

    I might adjust this on Friday evening, but thats how I see it now. My presumptions are based on LNP 52.4 2PP – but I also achieved that same result state by state, with ALP winning Solomon, Brisbane and Forde.

    ALP and GRN hold the senate (at least 38, possibly 39).

    Actually, playing with the Senate calculator makes you realise one salient point: a lot of scenarios see minor right parties coming up at the expense of a 3rd LNP in certain states. Very few see the ALP + GRN failing to get three. Maybe QLD only: which would still give them 38.

  250. leon

    Numbers shifting sharply? Lib/Nat 110 Lab 40? Is that just too pessimistic?

  251. lefty e

    [Just got latest 7News/ReachTEL national poll taken tonight. Numbers shifting sharply in final days. Which way? Watch @sunriseon7]

    Hmmmm.

  252. briefly

    http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-3september13

    LNP vote starting to soften as PUP improves and TPP tending to 48/52 (Labor/LNP)

  253. Kevin Bonham

    Tom the first and best@1947

    1943

    It works in Adobe Reader.

    Will you use those contact details to notify the party contacts of the security breach?

    I don’t think so. Any parties not already aware that GetUp! are too bumbling and dodgy to be trusted with data are too clueless to deserve my assistance. 🙂

  254. zoidlord

    @crikey/1944

    Perhaps.

  255. lefty e

    PS Im not entirely sure on Solomon – Ive just got a gut feeling doing a runner on a car accident wont play so well for the LNP candidate.

  256. zoidlord

    @Kevin

    Family first is pretty slack in their response….

    No position yet

  257. lefty e

    And Id note my seat prediction still holds at 52.0-48.0, which this could easily head to in the final days.

  258. Hash Convicts

    zoidlord

    You do research.

    Many companies provide 100Mbps or 1000Mbps connections to their boxes, but it also depends on routing, and the user ratio on that server.
    ———–

    So let me get this straight. What your saying is that people should waste their time researching around the net for servers that should be capable of the type of output from filehosts/torrents that is physically not possible, due to their being not one hosting source that can sustain this. So rather than just admitting that you yourself have no idea what server host, nor can you name one that can do it, you just suggest that everyone should just go do the research, rather than just admitting you have no idea of one host that can sustain this type of output.

    That is probably the most ridiculous response possible, and why? Because you simply don’t want to admit that there are no server hosts outside of Aus that can sustain 100MB/sec to 1000s of users all at the same time when it comes to warez.

    I gotta save this one…

  259. Tom the first and best

    1951

    The Narrowing!

  260. Thomas. Paine.

    48/52 would be a success. more than 48 a victory ….
    ….especially considering the more than normal toxicity of the media….especially the daily saturation double barrel Pro Abbott/Anti Labor-Rudd campaign of Murdoch rags.

  261. zoidlord

    @Hash Convicts/1957

    Since when did I say “physically not possible” ?

    That’s why you research, you contact the hosting companies.

    Your little rant about not being able to provide 100Mb/sec to 1000 of users in Australia has no bearing of location.

    Is an excuse to say “gotchya” in your argument.

    You are also using the “gotchya” in your argument about warez in Australia.

    Let me tell you, no hosting company will allow you to host warez in Australia, that’s why most people use overseas companies.

  262. Asha Leu

    @lefty e 1948

    LNP 83
    ALP 64
    GRN 1
    KAP 1
    Wilkie 1

    I might adjust this on Friday evening, but thats how I see it now. My presumptions are based on LNP 52.4 2PP – but I also achieved that same result state by state, with ALP winning Solomon, Brisbane and Forde.

    ALP and GRN hold the senate (at least 38, possibly 39).

    Actually, playing with the Senate calculator makes you realise one salient point: a lot of scenarios see minor right parties coming up at the expense of a 3rd LNP in certain states. Very few see the ALP + GRN failing to get three. Maybe QLD only: which would still give them 38.

    ——

    That sounds pretty fair to me.

    I think the Greens have a shot at at least 5 senate seats. Should give them a comfortable balance of power even with an increase in conservative frontbenchers.

  263. Roger Miller

    We shouldn’t get the NBN because there is this one thing that it won’t do. I don’t really know what that thing is but it sounds really bad. I don’t know why anyone wants to that thing and not the stuff they do on the internet now, but faster and more of it, with more people using the connection in their
    homes all at the same time. I suppose there are thousands of people who want their warez from one server,thats overseas.

  264. mexicanbeemer

    That is interesting,

    The poll is dated the 3rd.

  265. Hash Convicts

    zoidlord

    Let me tell you, no hosting company will allow you to host warez in Australia, that’s why most people use overseas companies.
    ————–
    So if people aren’t getting their warez from Australia, they are getting it from over seas hosts, so then if this is possible, what server hosting company can sustain this type of output?

    Name one?

  266. Asha Leu

    @1951 briefly

    http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-3september13

    LNP vote starting to soften as PUP improves and TPP tending to 48/52 (Labor/LNP)

    ——

    Ooh. Very nice.

  267. zoidlord

    @Hash Convicts/1964

    It’s called Seedboxes.

    USA, UK, Europe (most of the locations are from Europe).

    Google Seedboxes, can be anywhere from 10 per month to about 100 or so per month.

  268. Hash Convicts

    zoidlord

    Your little rant about not being able to provide 100Mb/sec to 1000 of users in Australia has no bearing of location.
    ————
    Really? So your suggesting people in Australia will receive the same speeds from Rapidshare based in the Netherlands, as people in the Netherlands when they are all on the same connection speeds? That’s interesting, Ill let you continue then… 😀

  269. Hash Convicts

    zoidlord

    It’s called Seedboxes.

    USA, UK, Europe (most of the locations are from Europe).

    Google Seedboxes, can be anywhere from 10 per month to about 100 or so per month.
    ——
    Right, and who do you think would receive better speeds from those seed boxes underload when there are 1000s of users connected to them in peak? People in those countries? Or people in Australia?

  270. zoidlord

    @Hash Convicts/1967

    This is where you go wrong.

    Most sensible people use downloader software that can connect to the servers multiple times.

    JDownloader for things like Rapidshare etc.
    uTorrent (Vuze, BitLord) for BitTorrent.
    Alt.Binz (or Newsbin, SABnzbd) for Usenet.

    These are software you can configure to connect to the server to multiple times to maximize your connection.

    That’s what people in say Netherlands, Japan, UK, US, anywhere would use.

  271. William Bowe

    The ReachTEL poll being linked to is the one from this morning. I gather, from Mark Riley’s tweet, that another one was conducted tonight with the results to be revealed on Seven Sunrise. This time though I won’t be awake for it.

  272. Roger Miller

    So, let me get this straight. In very limited circumstances it is not worth having higher speed connections. Well that sounds like a good argument.

  273. Asha Leu

    @William Bowe 1970

    Oh. Oops.

  274. zoidlord

    @Hash Convicts/1968

    There wouldn’t be 1000 users on a single server, this is where you go wrong, this isn’t web hosting.

    You are using something for more dedicated use.

    For one example, a provider says “we never put more than 5 users per hard disk”.

    It’s bit hard to talk to you in detail, which is why I told you to email the providers.

  275. Hash Convicts

    zoidlord

    This is where you go wrong.

    Most sensible people use downloader software that can connect to the servers multiple times.

    JDownloader for things like Rapidshare etc.
    uTorrent (Vuze, BitLord) for BitTorrent.
    Alt.Binz (or Newsbin, SABnzbd) for Usenet.

    These are software you can configure to connect to the server to multiple times to maximize your connection.

    That’s what people in say Netherlands, Japan, UK, US, anywhere would use.
    ————

    Just for future reference I need to copy this response of yours, just to show how wrong you are, you are not getting this for what I believe to be political stubbornness, however others can make up their own minds.

    1: You keep talking about these apparent servers that can handle this type of load, yet have failed to name one. All you have said is that they are in other countries, yet you do not understand that the limitations of those servers under-load will not sustain a consistent data output to 1000s of users all downloading from them at 100MB/sec. You are unable to name one, and suggested people should just go ‘research it’.

    2.Utorrent can not only sustain this type of connection either, there is not one Utorrent tracker that can output at 100MB/sec to 1000s of users at the same time, if Rapidshare cant do it, someone hosting boxes will not have the capability. Private trackers are private, and again this has the same limitation. In addition, who wants to use non-encrypted downloading? This is simple to understand.

    3. Name one Newsgroup that can output to Aus at 100MB/sec, again the same situation. I am with Usenet, use sadnzbd and can recieve 1MB a sec, some night Usenet can only output at around 700Kb/sec, regardless of which server I am on. Other users have had the same experience.

    This is not about people in Netherlands, Japan, UK, US, this is about people in Australia, purchasing a 100MB/sec connection and connecting to those countries only to find that they cannot receive these speeds due to server overload.

  276. briefly

    1970
    William Bowe
    Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 1:30 am | Permalink

    Suspect you’re right again, WB

  277. Hash Convicts

    zoidlord

    @Hash Convicts/1968

    There wouldn’t be 1000 users on a single server, this is where you go wrong, this isn’t web hosting.

    You are using something for more dedicated use.

    For one example, a provider says “we never put more than 5 users per hard disk”.

    It’s bit hard to talk to you in detail, which is why I told you to email the providers.
    ————-

    No. I never said a single server, I said a server host, there is a huge difference. Server hosts have multiple servers that all work together to send data to users, this is the same principle as trackers.

    Let put this simpler. If you needed a file from 3 dialup users, they could output at 15kb/s then this is all you will receive. Correct? Correct.

    If you have 10 servers capable of outputting to say 20 users at 100MB/sec (max) then this is what they receive Correct? Correct.

    If you have 10 servers capable of outputting to say 20 users at 100MB/sec (max), however these servers are in USA, and 20 Americans connect to them, and 10 Aussies connect to them (they are all on 100MB/sec) then the Americans will receive more bandwidth than the Aussies, and the Aussies will see a significant download speed loss, lets say 50MB/sec, until say half the yanks drop off.

    I don’t know if I can explain this any clearer.

    This is about bandwidth/distance restrictions and physical limitations regardless of what connection we use.

  278. briefly

    [1974…Hash Convicts]

    Geeez this stuff is arcane. There must be an auto-delete feature built into hash trivia. If not, there should be. We need a troll herding app…a kind of kiddie pen where all trolls can meet and drive each other insane.

  279. Hash Convicts

    briefly
    Geeez this stuff is arcane. There must be an auto-delete feature built into hash trivia. If not, there should be. We need a troll herding app…a kind of kiddie pen where all trolls can meet and drive each other insane.
    ———-

    Perhaps you would like me to start playing to the political tune of others here, just so they can all sit here and tell me how right I am. Either that or I couldn’t care less what you think of my comments. 😛

  280. zoidlord

    @Hash Convicts/1974

    Come back to me when you drop this nonsense about 1000 users thing.

    You are confusing web hosting environment vs your internet connection.

  281. Hash Convicts

    This is like someone unable to work out that dialup user in the USA cannot output enough upload speed to 1 adsl2 user in AUS while there are 2 other dialup people in the USA connecting to the same source…

  282. Hash Convicts

    zoidlord

    Come back to me when you drop this nonsense about 1000 users thing.

    You are confusing web hosting environment vs your internet connection.
    ——
    So basically your saying that there is never an instance that there isn’t 1000 users connecting to multiple servers.

    That has to be your best comment yet.

    Go look at Warezbb, Rapidshare and the millions of users that use them and thousands per hour, then tell me that there are not 1000s of users connecting to those servers every minute. Also go look at how many upgrades Rapidshare have made in the last 7 years to cater for its growing data output. Its your political bias that is clouding your inability to accept a simple concept that you cannot give what you don’t have.

  283. briefly

    [1978…Hash Convicts]

    I don’t mind much wot you do….just wish these postings were even vaguely readable.

  284. David Mills

    @Hash

    My (lengthy) reply at 1942 …

  285. zoidlord

    @Hash Convicts/1982

    No your continued to put words in peoples mouths without fixing up your own crap posts.

    Now your talking about rapid-share bandwidth, which is different subject.

    That is like backbone network between the servers.

    In regards to your mythical 1000 users to servers.

    I suggest you look into a better provider with better User Contention ratio (i.e. a number of users per server and possibly per hard disk).

  286. zoidlord

    @briefly/1983

    At least I’m not alone!!!

  287. Radguy

    So your argument at 1976 goes something like “because the net will sometimes be busy, we don’t need 100Mb?”

    Ever?

    I also know that if a fast and slow connection are competing for bandwidth, the slower link is far less responsive beyond it’s physical slowness. I don’t know the exact explanation for this, but I know it happens, particularly with nab servers if you are being shaped by your ISP. In fact, you can’t login to their oline banking.

    So when many people on fibre start demanding their 4k movies, those with slow connections may have trouble accessing sites. Digital divide, here we come!

  288. zoidlord

    @Radguy/1987

    It seems to be the case.

    However, you create demand by having faster connections in the first place, the more demand, the more likely and more often the servers will upgrade their bandwidth.

    It’s really that simple.

    You don’t create a slow system, just because there is a bottleneck somewhere down the line.

  289. Hash Convicts

    This is an example where for 2 nights I had been talking about bandwidth restrictions based on server locations hosting files outside of Australia, something that has been explained to zoidlord numerous times, however his political ignorance refuses to not only provide us with one example of a filehost outside of Australia that can provide its users with sustained 100MB/sec speeds, but now you have others thinking that we should have 100MB/sec connections without being able to reach this speed outside of Australia under almost every circumstance. The very fact that not one of these people can provide one example of where this has been reached outside of Aus is amusing. Note his comment about I should look into a better provider. Usenet are huge, they have been around forever and have the ability to serve thousands of people, but 2 issues sending to Aus slow it down, distance to server and the amount of users downloading at the same time from other countries closer than ours, hence a slower speed to Australian users.

    Has anyone on the NBN here seen one person connecting to a filehost/torrent server outside of Australia with 1000s of users connecting to it at the same time, seen speeds of 100MB/sec or even close?

    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 2:07 am | Permalink
    @Hash Convicts/1982
    No your continued to put words in peoples mouths without fixing up your own crap posts.
    Now your talking about rapid-share bandwidth, which is different subject.
    That is like backbone network between the servers.
    In regards to your mythical 1000 users to servers.
    I suggest you look into a better provider with better User Contention ratio (i.e. a number of users per server and possibly per hard disk).

  290. Hash Convicts

    Radguy

    So your argument at 1976 goes something like “because the net will sometimes be busy, we don’t need 100Mb?”

    Ever?

    I also know that if a fast and slow connection are competing for bandwidth, the slower link is far less responsive beyond it’s physical slowness. I don’t know the exact explanation for this, but I know it happens, particularly with nab servers if you are being shaped by your ISP. In fact, you can’t login to their oline banking.

    So when many people on fibre start demanding their 4k movies, those with slow connections may have trouble accessing sites. Digital divide, here we come!
    —————

    This isn’t sometimes, this is common and has also to do with distance. It is also common the have all the same people on the same speeds but in different countries receive different speeds, and those who are closer to the servers are the one who receive those speeds. So, if we are connecting on 100MB/sec connection, and the bottleneck is going to be the server, like it often is, and is a common occurrence with filehosting service like rapidshare (forget torrents, they do not even come close), you realise that Australian on 100MB/sec connection will be lucky to see half of this. Again, show me one person, who has the NBN in Australia, and has sustained 100MB/sec or close connecting and downloading from servers overseas.

  291. izatso?

    I shall ever be grateful for the few land masses/oceans sheilding us from electronic voting.
    murdoch and hash cookies.
    It’s Freudband.

  292. gough1

    if we are 48 – 52 now.

    And vote compass has undecided at 15% and leaning as follows:

    37% labor

    27% libs

    15% greens,

    balance others

    For the psephs If the undecided 15% vote this way what does that get us on Sunday?