tip off

ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A new ReachTEL poll offers Labor some vague encouragement, and concurs with Morgan and Essential in having Clive Palmer’s party at 4% nationally.

This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.

In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.

Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.

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  • 101
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:48 am | Permalink

    William has a post up about some seats in Qld, including Fairfax where Clive is standing.
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/09/04/seats-of-the-day-fairfax-hinkler-and-flynn/

  • 102
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:49 am | Permalink

    Apologies have been made and accepted for setting a dwarf on fire and laughing about it on national television. Plus Buddy has been pinged for a game.

    The AFL once again has a clean slate for the finals. Easy.

    Except that ASADA is zeroing in on the Dees, and may yet hand out infraction notices to sundry Essendon players, including Brownlow Medallist Watson.

  • 103
    Dee
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:49 am | Permalink

    BW

    Are you trying to say that Abbott has treated the voters like mugs because he lies to them all the time?

    Apparently, lying all the time is an indication he is just an ordinary guy.

  • 104
    womble
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:50 am | Permalink

    will be interesting to see how the day unfolds

    off to work, have a great day all

  • 105
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:50 am | Permalink

    victoria

    ‘It feels like we are in the middle of Summer. It is surreal.’

    The new real is what is what is happening to climate.

    Surreal is the Liberal view of what is happening with climate.

  • 106
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:50 am | Permalink

    Boerwar

    If the Essendon Players do get infraction notices, it may finally dawn on the club that having Hird back at the Helm in 2015 will not be a good move

  • 107
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:50 am | Permalink

    Brendan Brooks ‏@HyperBrendan 26m
    My internet has become slower this morning at just the thought of the Coalition winning on Saturday #ausvotes

  • 108
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:51 am | Permalink

    T.P
    You could always save yourself some heartburn and not read any of that stuff.

  • 109
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:51 am | Permalink

    ReachTEL ‏@ReachTEL 11m
    @mumbletwits Hi Peter. KAP has been named since we started this series and PUP since June. Check out the top table: http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-3september13

  • 110
    markjs
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    Roger Corbett is correct re Rudd…

    It’s an un-palatable truth that no amount of dissembling can hide …Rudd & his cardinals have severely damaged Labor with their treachery …and voters will not tolerate it.

    They also do not like, trust, or believe a word Abbott says, and that’s the only thing that will prevent a political bloodbath on Saturday.

    The voters will get it right …it will be VERY close, but on balance they will punish Labor sufficiently hard that the message will (hopefully) get through the thick heads of Labor power-brokers … WE WILL NOT TOLERATE DYSFUNCTION/DIS-UNITY IN OUR GOVERNMENT…

    Julia set this Govt up to win the election …the policy platform was very strong & the economy doing well …there was no reason to replace her. Rudd has been unable to explain why she had to be removed.

    Instead, he largely ignored her policy achievements & went on a ridiculous Grand Vision frolic of his own ….IN AN ELECTION CAMPAIGN FFS!! Additionally, and fatally, Rudd decided to confirm Abbott’s 18 month long taxpayer funded scare campaign …by announcing his intention of scrapping the “Carbon Tax” ONE YEAR EARLIER …to “relieve cost of living pressures” This at a time when the potency of Abbott’s scare campaign had all but faded completely…

    Now we have the ludicrous situation where Abbott can claim the election as a “referendum on the Carbon Tax” ….thanks for nothing Mr Rudd!!

    …and some on here call me “delusional” for pointing out the fact …Kevin Rudd IS a DUDD!!!

  • 111
    Kinkajou
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    Except that ASADA is zeroing in on the Dees

    …performance enhancing?

  • 112
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:53 am | Permalink

    victoria

    ‘Boerwar

    If the Essendon Players do get infraction notices, it may finally dawn on the club that having Hird back at the Helm in 2015 will not be a good move’

    Yes. They must be pretty confident that no infraction notices will be handed out. OTOH, I assume that they do not know what WADA would do if ASADA does nothing.

  • 113
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:53 am | Permalink

    Boerwar

    The latest ranting by Abbott re climate policy has got me riled. I dont know what will make Australians wake up to this fraud before Saturday.

  • 114
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:53 am | Permalink

    victoria

    Very good point. Each generation thinks they are smarter than the previous one, and that life has improved. Hmmm. ;)

  • 115
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    K
    Not really. Apparently they are investigating the Melbourne club for the biggest and most comprehensive program of performance debilitating drugs in the history of the sport. There was not even a placebo effect.

  • 116
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    Boerwar

    Essendon extending Hird’s contract for 2015/2016 was giving the bird to the AFL and everyone else. I hope karma comes and bites them in the arse

  • 117
    Kinkajou
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    The latest ranting by Abbott re climate policy

    maybe the press could goad something out…oh hang on their mouths are full at the moment

  • 118
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:55 am | Permalink

    v
    Three strong El Ninos before the next election would be very, very nice.

  • 119
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:55 am | Permalink

    v

    The AFL Hird bird, yes.

  • 120
    Dee
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:56 am | Permalink

    MarkJS

    Murdoch was going to shred Labor regardless of who the leader was but I agree wholeheartedly on the carbon tax.

    It had lost it’s impact, hence, why Rabbott continued to zero in on boats completely ignoring the carbon tax.

  • 121
    Kinkajou
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:57 am | Permalink

    There was not even a placebo effect

    antiplacebo…antihawthorne effect? their abilities went out in moral outrage of potential cheating

    the dees have always been good chaps like that

  • 122
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:58 am | Permalink

    The Rudd plan after the election is blindingly obvious. Rudd will resign for the good of the Party, spend the next two and half years white-anting the new leader, and then be drafted in to universal acclaim as the 2016 Labor election saviour.

    It worked before.

  • 123
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:59 am | Permalink

    Three-quarters of Australians believe a coalition victory is imminent on Saturday, the latest ReachTEL poll has found.

    The poll, conducted by automated phone survey of 3853 voters on Tuesday night, shows the coalition maintaining an election-winning 52-48 two-party preferred vote over Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's struggling Labor team.

    The poll found a whopping 74.2 per cent of voters, including almost half those voting Labor, believed the coalition will win.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/18775659/75-of-voters-predict-coalition-victory/

    Jeez I would laugh if they lost from here. Or if Australians deliver another hung parliament.

  • 124
    Kinkajou
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:00 am | Permalink

    Three strong El Ninos before the next election would be very, very nice.

    or a few la ninata….enjoy Queensland!!!

    parching one year drowning the next

    just getting full value from my flood levy. that won’t happen again

  • 125
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:00 am | Permalink

    Boerwar:

    That is what worries me. I can’t see him going voluntarily.

  • 126
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:01 am | Permalink

    confessions

    My last premonition was a 50/50 result. No other result has popped into my head since then, despite the overwhelming evidence of a coalition victory.

  • 127
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:01 am | Permalink

    Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 13m
    Nielsen results suggest PUP mostly comes from (& intends to pref) ALP, but PUP HTV cards preferencing Coalition. One ta watch.

    FWIW I think PUP voters would preference the coalition, regardless of what they are telling pollsters today.

  • 128
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:02 am | Permalink

    victoria:

    I really do hope you’re right.

  • 129
    Kinkajou
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:03 am | Permalink

    That is what worries me. I can’t see him going voluntarily

    hopefully the griffith anti byelection campaign may solve it for everyone. Otherwise gawn by Sunday

  • 130
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:03 am | Permalink

    comfessions

    Only a couple of days left, and not one poll is showing a hung parliament

  • 131
    Kinkajou
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:04 am | Permalink

    FWIW I think PUP voters would preference the coalition, regardless of what they are telling pollsters today.

    I’m not getting the signals that PUP voters are likely to fill in all the squares

  • 132
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:05 am | Permalink

    confessions

    Asking who voters think will probably win is one thing. They never ask whether they think it’s a Good Result for them. :(

  • 133
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:05 am | Permalink

    v

    Premonition? How unscientificment.

    We sacrificed a chicken last night and checked the entrails.

    Abbott in a landslide.

    Bloody capon.

  • 134
    Prime Minister Abbott
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:05 am | Permalink

    River

    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 7:14 am | Permalink

    Two notable things in the morning news.

    Firstly, Roger Corbett of Fairfax slammed Rudd on Lateline and stated the Labor party should have stuck with Gillard (true).

    Secondly, Rudd’s brother is voting liberal *hohoho*. Okay, the second piece wasn’t news but I wanted to say it anyway

    Really, that says it all!

  • 135
    kezza2
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:06 am | Permalink

    vic

    Supposed to be 25 degrees in Motown today.

    But spare a thought for handing out HTVs on Saturday.

    According to Meteye, it will be between 8-15 degrees with a westerly up to 22kmh (blowing straight at us) with a 50% chance of rain.

    Grrr.

  • 136
    Prime Minister Abbott
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:06 am | Permalink

    DId anyone watch Q and A last night.

    Rudd got slammed!!!!

  • 137
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:06 am | Permalink

    For three years Abbott did Gimme the job or I’ll Wreck the Joint.

    On Saturday voters will make him Official Joint Wrecker.

  • 138
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:06 am | Permalink

    Boerwar

    No doubt Abbott carrying on about abolishing the carbon price is hitting all the right notes for a landslide victory

  • 139
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:06 am | Permalink

    PMA
    (1) No.
    (2) So?

  • 140
    Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    v
    He is pandering to his carbon pollution mates.

  • 141
    Kinkajou
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    Still all things * considered Labor staying amazingly close

    * All things = 1+ year of media monotony diatribe against ALP….does show how limited their power is…that they have to work so hysterically hard for such a long time to get each percent… the coin is in the air

  • 142
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    lizzie:

    If that focus group Hartcher sat in on and reported the other day is representative, voters believe a coalition govt will be bad for them. The problem is voters believe it’s necessary.

    Abbott’s wrecking the joint has had some purchase it would seem.

  • 143
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    kezza

    26 for Melbourne today

  • 144
    kezza2
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    vic

    Are you gunna get into the togs and hit the beach?

  • 145
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    kezza2

    Not hot enough for that!

  • 146
    mari
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:13 am | Permalink

    Victoria
    Thank you will also be talking to a couple of waverers when I get home :grin:

    Confessions

    In Sydney at the moment fly home on Friday, looking forward to going home and sleeping in my own bed.

  • 147
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:15 am | Permalink

    This new LNP Government is the worst performed Government since Federation.

    Just getting in the early crow!

  • 148
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 8:59 am | Permalink

    Jeez I would laugh if they lost from here. Or if Australians deliver another hung parliament.

    At this stage I’ll be happy if abbott doesn’t control the Senate.

  • 149
    kezza2
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:18 am | Permalink

    vic

    Not hot enough for that!

    I don’t know, that’s almost 80 degrees in the old lingo.

  • 150
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 9:19 am | Permalink

    confessions

    I have never used this expression before, but “Bloody turkeys voting for Christmas”.

    I see that Morrisson has already vowed to hide the figures for asylum seekers. Keeping up the Lib tradition of secrecy.

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